Ep 11: Reshaping the Middle East - Part 1

How did decades of warnings about Iran’s nuclear ambitions turn into all-out war—and what role did Netanyahu play in pulling the US into the fight? What does the outcome mean for the greater Middle East?
Join me as I unpack the history, the political maneuverings, and the intelligence battles that set the stage for the 12-Day War between Iran and Israel.

Transcript

Raheel Khan: 0:01

Welcome back to another episode of Khannecting the Dots. It's only been a week since my last episode, and I feel like there's so much to talk about, it's hard to keep track. This week, like so many over the past six months, has been nonstop commotion. Republicans passed Trump's Big Beautiful Bill, a sweeping law that slashes Medicaid and food assistance while ballooning the national debt. Signed with pomp and circumstance on July 4th, just like Trump wanted. Meanwhile, Florida opened Alligator Alcatraz. A new detention center deep in the Everglades, complete with political fanfare and cruel jokes about teaching immigrants how to run away from snakes and alligators, courtesy of the President. But it's not all grim news. In New York City, Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic socialist pulled off a stunning, upset, winning the Democratic primary for mayor. The backlash was fast and furious. The President labeled him a communist. While some Republicans threatened to strip his citizenship and deport him. You'd think mainstream Democrats would support him, but instead, several accused him of being out of touch and antisemitic while others refused to endorse his candidacy. All of this, despite the fact that Mamdani's campaign has the support of many Jews. And it didn't just energize progressives, he won over disillusioned Democrats who backed Trump just months ago. With all this upheaval at home, it's easy to miss what's happening abroad. So for today, I wanna pull our focus back to the Middle East. Just over a week ago, the so-called 12 day war between Iran and Israel ended leaving the region in a tense, fragile truce. The headlines may have faded, but the consequences are only beginning to unfold. Why does this conflict matter? And what's the bigger picture behind the headlines? That's what we're looking at today. If you've listened before, you know this show is about more than breaking news. It's about tracing the roots of today's crises. Every headline has a backstory. So let's start there. Picture Iran, in the early 1950s, after decades under a monarchy, Iranians finally elect a leader who inspires hope, Mohammed Mossadegh. He was treated like a folk hero. His promise? Take back control of Iran's oil from foreign hands and use that wealth for the Iranian people. That vision threatened powerful interests. The British government furious at losing their oil monopoly called in help from Washington. In August, 1953, the CIA and British Intelligence orchestrated a coup toppling Mossadegh's government in just four days. The Shah returned to power, backed by the west, and with him came the SAVAK, Iran's Secret Police. Trained in methods of surveillance, interrogation, and torture by both the CIA and Israel's Mossad. For 25 years, the SAVAK tortured political prisoners, assassinated dissidents, and crushed any opposition. Meanwhile, Iran's oil profits flowed abroad and Western countries supported the Shah turning a blind eye to his cruelties at home. By 1979, the anger boiled over. Iranians from every walk of life. Workers, students, secular nationalists and religious leaders rose up and overthrew the Shah. But here's what many people don't realize. The revolution that started as a genuine popular uprising was gradually hijacked. Initially, people thought that religious leaders would stay spiritual and symbolic, while other groups ran the government. But Ayatollah Khomeini had different plans. Over the first several years after the revolution, he systematically imprisoned, tortured, and executed many of his former allies; leftists and secular nationalists, while sidelining and humiliating other religious leaders who disagreed with him. Workers had created Democratic councils giving ordinary people real power, but Khomeini used similar tactics to disband them to solidify clerical control. The regime that emerged has been brutal and authoritarian, oppressing its own people for over four decades now. But, here's what you need to understand. When they first seized power, they tapped into a very real, very legitimate anger that Iranians felt toward the United States and Israel. The resentment wasn't manufactured. It was earned. Through 25 years of supporting a dictator who tortured and killed his own people The clergy exploited those feelings to build their own authoritarian system. Resentment has continued through propaganda, but also real negative actions from the US, Israel, and Western powers towards Iran. Now let's bring our story forward and to the man who shaped Israel's Iran policy for decades, Benjamin Netanyahu. For more than 30 years, Netanyahu has been warning that Iran is just about to get the bomb. In 1992, he told Israel's parliament that Iran was"three to five years away from a nuclear weapon". He repeated the same claim in his 1995 book. And in 2012, he stood before the United Nations holding up a cartoon bomb. Insisting Iran would cross the nuclear threshold by next summer. Well, that next summer came and went. and still no Iranian bomb. The Daily Show a few weeks ago ran a fabulous montage clip after clip of Netanyahu making nearly identical warnings, year after year, over decades. John Stewart even joked"Netanyahu talks about Iran getting nukes the same way I talk about the Knicks winning a title. This is the year. The Knicks are weeks away from a championship. But they never win a title." But here's what rarely gets mentioned. While Netanyahu rails against nuclear proliferation. Israel itself is widely believed to have around 90 nuclear warheads, and they've never signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Iran has, and at least officially, still allows international inspectors into its facilities. So the loudest voice against nuclear weapons in the Middle East. Is also the only country in the region with them. And the only one refusing any international oversight. That contradiction is hard to ignore. So why does Netanyahu keep beating this drum? Former President Clinton appearing on the daily show last month put it bluntly. Netanyahu has long wanted to fight Iran. Because that way he can stay in office forever and ever. For Netanyahu crisis isn't just policy, it's political survival. The October 7th Hamas attacks shattered his image, as Israel's security strong man. He needed a bigger threat to rally the country and reclaim his legacy. What's bigger than the specter of a nuclear Iran? But. Netanyahu had a problem. He needed US support, especially access to America's bunker busting bombs. Based on reporting from the Washington Post and Times Magazine. Netanyahu had already planned to attack Iran since late 2024. He just needed the US backing to do it, and so he took his case directly to President Trump, knowing Trump wasn't one for dense intelligence briefings. Netanyahu played to Trump's instincts. Reminding him of Iranian plots against his life, showing dramatic slides of Iran's nuclear sites and insisting,"Look Donald, this has to be tackled because they're racing forward. You can't have a nuclear Iran on your watch." Trump swayed by the presentation, began echoing Netanyahu's warnings even when those warnings flew in the face of his own intelligence officials. And here's where things get especially troubling. Instead of working with US intelligence, Netanyahu began feeding Trump Israeli intelligence that directly contradicted what American agencies were reporting. The Israelis claimed Iran was secretly acquiring nuclear weapon parts while pretending to negotiate. Yet, just a few months earlier in March, Trump's own director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard had testified before Congress"Iran is not building a nuclear weapon." That was the official US assessment. When confronted with this glaring contradiction, Trump did what he's done before. He dismissed his own intelligence chief. His exact words,"I don't care what she said., I think they were very close to having it." Pressed further, he doubled down. Insisting Gabbard is wrong about Iran's nuclear efforts. The manipulation was so effective. Trump was now publicly contradicting his own government's intelligence, repeating Netanyahu's claims, even as his own experts said otherwise. As US Iran Peace talks were scheduled to continue on June 15th, Netanyahu made his move. On June 13th, Israel launched"Operation Rising Lion" striking deep into Iran's nuclear and military infrastructure. But perhaps the most revealing moment came just a day later on June 14th. It was Trump's 79th birthday, and Washington was hosting a massive but controversial military parade for the US Army's 250th anniversary. As Israeli bombs were still falling on Iran, Netanyahu released this statement, timed for maximum impact. This speech was a masterclass of flattery and manipulation. Its timing, no accident. Pouring on the praise to Trump on a special day, at the same time when so many Americans were protesting, neatly tying Israel's war directly to American power, American interests, and Trump's personal legacy. All this manipulation was building toward one moment, June 22nd, when the US entered the war in"Operation Midnight Hammer". Before we get there, let's take a look at Israel's own"Operation Rising Lion". This wasn't just another airstrike, it was full scale war. Over 200 Israeli fighter jets struck Iran's nuclear facilities and missile sites targeting not just infrastructure, but also top Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists. Iran hit back with hundreds of missiles and drones, some breaching Israel's famed air defenses. For the first time, Israeli civilians were killed in significant numbers, and the world watched as the conflict escalated day by day. But the wars and Netanyahu's end game came on day nine, June 22nd. That morning, the United States entered the fray directly. Seven B-2 stealth bombers flew 18 hours from Missouri, dropping 30,000 pound bunker buster bombs on Iran's underground nuclear facilities. This was a clear signal that America was no longer just backing Israel, but actively fighting alongside it. And as the world absorbed the shock Netanyahu seized the moment. He went on television to shower Trump with praise. Just listen, Trump clearly basking in the flattery responded that he and Netanyahu had worked as a team,"like perhaps no team has ever worked before". He thanked Netanyahu and the Israeli military and praised the American B-2 fighter pilots saying"Hopefully we will no longer need their services in this capacity". The choreography was unmistakable. Netanyahu and Trump on opposite ends of the world, but still presenting a united front. Each leader validating the other, each claiming credit for a historic victory. The ceasefire finally came on June 24th. But not before Israel launched one more massive strike, just hours before the agreement took effect. A move Trump actually criticized on live tv. So what did this 12 day war actually accomplish? Let's start with a human toll. Iran at least 627 dead. Nearly 5,000 injured. In Israel, 28 dead, and over 3000 wounded. More than 9,000 Israelis had to evacuate their homes. Behind every number is a family shattered, a community forever changed. Iranian hospitals overflowed with casualties. Israeli cities once thought untouchable, were hit by missile fire for the first time in decades. But beyond the numbers, the strategic results remain murky. Trump and his officials claim they obliterated Iran's nuclear program and set it back decades. The Pentagon said Iran was now"closer to two years" from building a bomb. But here's where the story gets less clear. Leaked US intelligence told a completely different story. A preliminary defense intelligence agency assessment reportedly estimated that Iran's nuclear program was only set back a few months, not years. When Trump officials were confronted with these leaked assessments contradicting their claims. They said it was too early to make reliable judgements, then they immediately made their own grand claims about obliteration and decades of setbacks. And there's another troubling detail. Satellite images showed trucks at Iranian nuclear sites in the days before the strikes suggesting Iran may have moved key components. When asked about Iran's uranium stockpiles, an Iranian officials said,"I do not know where those materials are, and I will stop at that." Even Republican Senators Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton after receiving a classified briefing stated that destroying Iran's uranium stockpiles was never the main goal of the mission. After 12 days of war, hundreds of death, billions in military spending, and risking regional catastrophe, we can't even agree on what was accomplished. Iran says it's still going to enrich uranium. The US government gives conflicting assessments. International inspectors think Iran could be back to enriching in months. So was this a decisive blow or just a temporary pause in a much longer conflict? If all this sounds familiar, it should. We're watching the same playbook that led to the Iraq War. Claims about imminent weapons of mass destruction. Intelligence tailored to fit political goals. A rush to military action with no clear end game. Netanyahu was one of the loudest voices pushing for the Iraq invasion in 2003. A war that destabilized the region and ironically expanded Iran's influence. Now with Iran, the stakes are even higher. A larger country, a bigger population, and deeper regional ties. And the conflict isn't over. Iran's parliament is now considering withdrawing from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, which would end all international inspections. In Washington, some lawmakers are pushing the Bunker Buster Act, authorizing the transfer of America's most advanced bombers and bunker buster bombs to Israel if Iran starts its nuclear program again. If that happens, it would mark a permanent, dangerous shift in the region's balance of power. But let's be clear, this war was never just about nuclear weapons. That was the pretext. By crippling Iran's military and assassinating its top commanders. Israel severely weakened its main regional rival, clearing the way for a new balance of power. Netanyahu calls it"reshaping the Middle East for the better". But history shows that overwhelming force rarely brings lasting peace. Each time Israel has sought security through dominance in Gaza, Lebanon, or now Iran. It has sown the seeds for the next conflict. The region is now more unstable than ever and the cycle of violence shows no sign of ending. This conflict didn't just come out of nowhere. It's the latest chapter in a 70 year story of mistrust, manipulation, and violence between Iran and the West. The 1953 coup didn't just overthrow a government. It created decades of legitimate grievances that Iranian leaders, including the current regime, have exploited ever since. The animosity, the proxy conflicts, even Iran's nuclear program they all grew out of that fundamental breach of trust. Netanyahu has understood this history perfectly, exploiting decades of Iranian grievances to build his case for military action. But his approach perpetuates the very cycle he claims to be breaking. For three decades, he's promised that eliminating Iran's nuclear threat would bring security to Israel. But his strategy of manipulation and military force, doesn't solve the underlying problem, it just escalates it to the next level. Now, lawmakers want to give Israel access to America's most powerful conventional weapons. If this pattern holds. We're not looking at the end of regional conflict. We're looking at the beginning of something far more dangerous. In our next episode, we'll step back and connect the bigger picture. Beyond Iran to what's unfolding in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, and even Yemen. We'll dig into how settlement, expansion, proxy wars and military operations across the region are shaping a new reality, one that some called the pursuit of"Greater Israel" stretching from the Mediterranean to the Jordan River. And over the past few days, there's breaking news from Gaza. The US says Israel has agreed to a 60 day ceasefire proposal with Qatar and Egypt mediating. Hamas is now reviewing the plan and consulting with other Palestinian factions. A decision could come any day. What could this mean for the people of Gaza, for Israel's long-term strategy? For the hope of lasting peace? Will this ceasefire bring real change, or is it just a pause before the next round of conflict? We'll break it all down in our next episode. Thanks for listening to Khannecting the Dots. If you found this episode informative, please subscribe and share with a friend. Until next time, stay curious, stay critical, and stay connected.