Ep. 4: Can a Road Diet Work Here? Yes—and Here’s the Data to Prove It

In this myth-busting episode, host Ellen Brabo dives into the real traffic data surrounding 15th Street and tackles head-on the claim that a road diet can’t work here.

Backed by local traffic studies, NCDOT counts and federal guidelines from the FHWA, Ellen explains why the Stantec plan is not only viable, but tailored to the exact volume of traffic we have today (and even projected in the future).

She also addresses the common comparison to 5th Street: Why it feels congested, what signal timing has to do with it and why design alone isn’t the issue. You’ll come away with clear answers, real data and the confidence to push back against misleading narratives.

📍 Learn more, view the Stantec plan and sign the petition at 15thStreetCoalition.com

Transcript

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Hey, y'all, and welcome back to Wake Up Washington. I'm Ellen Brabo, host of this podcast and the coordinator of the Fifteenth Street Coalition. Today, we're talking about road diets, what they are, how they work, and why they are such a big part of the alternative design proposed for Fifteenth Street. But more specifically, we're going to bust a myth we've heard over and over again. It goes something like this. A rogue diet can't handle more than 10,000 cars a day. Let us be very clear up front. That claim is false. It is not backed by federal data, it is not true for our corridor, and continuing to repeat it only serves to mislead the public and shut down a better solution before it ever had a chance. So in this episode, we're going to walk through what a road diet is, what the data says, how it applies to Fifteenth Street, and, yes, we will even tackle the inevitable question. But, Ellen, won't that just turn into another Fifth Street? Let's dig in. We wanna start with what a road diet actually is. A road diet takes a four lane undivided road like what we have today on Fifteenth Street and reconfigures it into three lanes. One lane in each direction, a dedicated center turn lane, and freed up space for other uses like bike paths and sidewalks. It's not about removing function. It's about restoring balance and predictability. Because right now, Fifteenth Street operates in a way that is unsafe and inefficient. Drivers making left turns are blocking the travel lane. Other drivers are weaving around them, jumping into the right lane to get around. It creates erratic, unpredictable movement, and it's a big contributor to the crash rate, which is one point three times higher than the state average for similar roads. So where does this 10,000 vehicles per day myth come from? It seems to be a misquote of early design guidance, likely from a time before road diets were well studied. But he's taken on a life of his own, and today it's being used to discredit the Stantec plant. Here's what the Federal Highway Administration actually says in its official road diet information guide. Road diets have been successful on roads with average daily traffic volumes up to 25,000, and in some documented cases, even up to 26,000 average daily traffic. Let me say that again for the folks in the back. The federal agency that oversees transportation safety policy has validated road diets up to 26,000 vehicles a day. That is not a theory. That is best practice. So let's apply that to Fifteenth Street. According to the Washington Police Department's twenty twenty four speed study, the corridor saw approximately 13,578 daily trips when both directions of traffic were considered. NCDOT traffic counts and projections confirm a downward trend in average daily traffic. In 02/2012, counts ranged from 20,000 to 22,000 ADT. By 2022 and 2023, those numbers had dropped between 34,500. Even the 2048 traffic projections provided by NCDOT, which were originally pegged above 27,000 ADT, have since been reduced by over 5,300 vehicles per day for a maximum future projection of 23,000 ADT. That means that the traffic volume we're dealing with on Fifteenth Street today, and even in the future, is well within the tested and recommended range for road diets. We aren't asking for an experiment. We're simply asking for best practice. Now I understand what you're thinking. Your initial reaction was probably something to the effect of reducing Fifteenth Street from four lanes to three lanes will cause congestion, and we understand this concern. On the surface, it feels logical. But when you look up how the current roadway actually functions, the math doesn't add up. Right now, Fifteenth Street is a four lane undivided road. That means two lanes in each direction, but no dedicated turning lane, no buffer, no division. Drivers trying to turn left often stop in the inside travel lane. Drivers behind them are forced to stop or suddenly merge into the outer lane to get around them. This leads to confusion, frustration, limited visibility, and ultimately, accidents. It's important to realize that today, Fifteenth Street is often functioning like a two lane road with chaos in the middle. By converting it to a three lane road with one lane in each direction and a dedicated center turn lane, you actually organize the traffic movement and make the corridor safer, calmer, and more efficient. Let us go to Merriman Avenue in Asheville. In 2022, when NCDOT implemented a road diet at Merriman Avenue, they had a similar commercial density and similar ADT levels to ours. When they followed up in 2024, here's what they found. Travel times during

peak rush hour, 04:30 to 05: 5:24

30PM, increased by only two to fourteen seconds. Average speeds decreased slightly by three to five miles per hour, which is a good thing because lower speeds in urban corridors reduce fatalities. And most importantly, crashes decreased by twenty three percent. That is a huge safety improvement for such a small shift in travel time. And we want to remind everyone, NCDOT has said multiple times, this project is not about traffic congestion. It is about safety and accessibility. So let's hold the project to its own stated goal. If safety is the priority, this configuration accomplishes that. Another myth that we've heard circulating is that a three lane road will make it impossible for emergency vehicles. And it's fair to worry how emergency vehicles will navigate a redesigned Fifteenth Street, But here's what is important to understand. Right now, with four undivided lanes, emergency vehicles actually struggle. Why? Because when sirens go off, drivers panic. They try to shift into another lane and sometime into oncoming traffic, and that's not safe, and it's not predictable. In a properly designed three lane road diet, there's a center two way turn lane that creates a path for emergency vehicles to bypass traffic. A road diet does not create an emergency access issue. It solves one. Designing streets for safety means designing them for everyone, including the fire trucks, the ambulances, and the drivers who need to respond quickly and safely. Road diets also help small businesses in key ways. First, they slow down traffic, which increases visibility. If you've ever tried to read a business sign or find a driveway while cars are flying by at 40 miles per hour, you know that slower speeds mean better chances for customers to stop and turn in. Second, they make streets safer and more welcoming for pedestrians and bicyclists, and study after study shows that walkers and cyclists spend more money at local businesses than people who are just driving through. And most importantly for us, the current NCDOT plan removes left turn access for businesses along the corridor. Customers would be forced to drive past, make a u-turn, and come back. That's inconvenient, that's unsafe, and that's how businesses lose customers. A road diet, by contrast, includes a dedicated center turn lane, meaning people can safely and efficiently turn into a local shop or restaurant, which keeps our economy moving. This project doesn't have to look the way it's currently proposed. It can be done better, and there's precedent for that across our state and the nation. Okay. So now the part you've probably been waiting for. But, Ellen, won't this just turn into Fifth Street? Great question. Let's talk about it. First, let's look at the numbers. Fifth Street's current average daily traffic is about 14,000 vehicles per day. That's roughly similar to what we're seeing currently on Fifteenth Street based on the NTDOT data and the city's own speed study. Second, it's important to understand that road performance depends on more than just the layout. Signal timing plays a massive role. And right now, the signals along Fifth Street are not optimized for modern traffic flow. That's something the city of Washington can request NCDOT to adjust. And it's also something the city can invest in directly, paying for better traffic signal technology and timing systems to improve traffic flow. So if you're someone who uses Fifth Street regularly or you're avoiding it because you feel it's congested, one of the most impactful things that you can do, contact city hall. Tell them that the signal timing and upgrades are a priority for you because the design itself isn't inherently broken. It's the execution that needs to be improved. Now let's zoom out. Fifteenth Street is not just a corridor. It's a lifeline for our neighborhoods and our businesses. We can't afford to let a myth about too much traffic stop us from pursuing a solution that preserves property, improves safety, reduces crashes, encourages walkability and community connection, and does it all at a fraction of the cost of NCDOT's Super Street proposal. The Stantec plan reflects the best of what road diets offer without overreaching, without displacement, and with a clear path forward. I'm Ellen Brabo, and on behalf of the Fifteenth Street Coalition, thank you for waking up with us. If you found today's episode helpful, here's what you can do right now. Visit fifteenthStreetCoalition.com and sign the petition in favor of a community minded solution. Share this episode with a friend or neighbor and follow Wake Up Washington so you don't miss future episodes. And help us continue building momentum for a safer, smarter, and more connected Washington.