Professor John Graham explores how AI is affecting productivity, hiring, and firm strategy based on new CFO survey data

Artificial intelligence is everywhere—from automating routine tasks to generating insights in seconds. Yet despite the hype and anxiety, especially around job loss, the real impact of AI on companies may be more nuanced than headlines suggest.

In this episode of Duke Fuqua Insights, Professor John Graham of Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business draws on data from The CFO Survey, which included responses from nearly 750 financial executives across industries. The survey, conducted in late 2025, asked how firms are currently using AI and what they expect in 2026. By focusing on CFOs—"leaders who know what the spending is on AI,” Graham said—the research offers a grounded perspective on how AI is affecting productivity, workforce composition, and investment decisions. 

The central finding: AI is expected to boost productivity without causing widespread job losses—at least in the near term. CFOs forecast productivity gains of up to 3% in 2026, “a significant increase,” Graham said, while overall employment remains largely stable.

Instead of mass layoffs, firms anticipate modest declines in routine clerical roles, partially offset by hiring in technical positions.

Interestingly, the AI-driven productivity gains aren’t fully reflected in increased revenue forecasts. Graham points to a modern “productivity paradox.” As he explains, “we’re hearing more about productivity than we’re seeing it in the revenue numbers,” suggesting a lag between implementation and financial results. Companies may improve output per worker first, but it takes time for those gains to translate into sales due to production cycles and human-driven sales processes.

For business leaders and MBA students, the implications are that AI’s value today lies less in cost-cutting and more in enhancing quality, innovation, and customer satisfaction.

To students, Graham suggests focusing on core strengths: “Do what you do really well, and improve it through AI.” Technical skills are increasingly valuable, but equally important are critical thinking, communication, and the ability to interpret AI-generated outputs. In a world where “anybody can produce numbers,” the real advantage lies in understanding and explaining them.

Duke Fuqua Insights features digestible conversations with our faculty about the most impactful research from their careers, including studies they teach in Fuqua classes. New episodes every other week in season.

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