Being Exponential With Luke Lango
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Being Exponential With Luke Lango
Answering Your Questions | RDW, BWXT, BE, MU
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In this special Subscriber Q&A Edition of Being Exponential, Luke Lango answers some of the most important investing questions from the community, covering everything from financial statement analysis to some of the market's most exciting AI, energy, defense, and space stocks.
We begin by breaking down one of Wall Street's most misunderstood metrics: EBIT vs. EBITDA. What do these profitability measures actually tell investors, when should you use them, and why do growth companies, infrastructure plays, and technology firms often emphasize EBITDA over traditional earnings?
Next, Luke tackles questions on Redwire (RDW) and whether the investment thesis remains intact following the historic SpaceX IPO. As the space economy, orbital infrastructure, defense spending, and AI-driven space technologies continue to expand, where does Redwire fit into the long-term opportunity?
We also discuss BWX Technologies (BWXT) and the growing role of nuclear power in an AI-driven world. With data center energy demand exploding, could nuclear energy become a critical piece of the future AI infrastructure stack?
Then we dive into Bloom Energy (BE) and why fuel cells, distributed power generation, and energy resiliency are becoming increasingly important as hyperscalers race to power the next generation of AI data centers.
Finally, Luke shares his latest thoughts on Micron (MU) and the ongoing AI memory boom. As demand for HBM, DRAM, and AI storage continues to surge, is Micron still one of the best ways to play the AI infrastructure buildout?
From AI stocks, nuclear energy, memory stocks, space stocks, and data center power to fundamental investing concepts like EBITDA, this episode is packed with actionable insights for long-term investors.
🎧 Subscribe to Being Exponential with Luke Lango for weekly discussions on AI investing, tech stocks, macro trends, energy infrastructure, and exponential technologies.
Hello and welcome to Being Exponential. We are covering your questions today. All right, Luke, let's start it off with the first one. A subscriber was asking about the difference between EBIT and EBITDA in regard to uh optics stocks specifically. Uh could you uh expound on that?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, so uh EBITDA is interest before earnings, taxes, depreciation, amateurization, and eBIT is earnings before interest and taxes. So EBITDA includes depreciated amateurization, eBIT does not. Um whether you're looking at, I mean, I like to look at EBITDA for pretty much all companies, whether you're looking at EBIT or EBITDA or PE or earnings or whatever it may be for um optic stocks, they just look incredibly cheap. Um, I I got them up pulled up right here. Uh Credo is is one of the big optic stocks. We're trading at 39 times forward earnings, 33 times forward EBITDA, and 34 times forward eBIT. Um, so that's those are pretty attractive multiples when you consider when I pull up the growth profile on Credo. 82% growth this year, 47 the year after that, 27, 27, 17, with you know pretty stable margins, and then 130 DPS growth, 43, 20, 20, 17. So this is a massive grower trading at around 30 times EBIT EBITDA and around 40 times uh earnings. That that's a really attractive uh growth proposition. The same would be true for another one of our favorite um optic stocks, uh Estera Labs. Yes, this one's much more expensive. 100 times uh 103 times forward earnings, 107 times forward EBITDA, 94 times forward eBIT, but historically it's been more expensive. When you look at the growth profile though, for that one, remember we're basically 100 times forward earnings. The growth profile here is enormous. We're talking 81% revenue growth this year, 42, 28, and then the estimates get not as reliable, but basically 30% plus EPS growth, and then the margins are stable and the EPS growth is is 145, 44, 30. So really big time growth there. So it doesn't matter if you're looking at PE, it doesn't matter if you're looking at EBITDA, it doesn't matter if you're looking at EBIT, EV rev, price to book. I think the optic stocks look pretty cheap relative to their organically very large growth profiles right now.
SPEAKER_02Excellent. Okay, um, that was great. Uh moving on to the next question here. Um, we want to talk about red wire. So there was a dilution in the stock. Redwire, you know, it had a fantastic moment, then it traced back down uh during that 5% drop in the markets. Uh could you speak on red wire?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, so redwire, uh yeah, I mean, so they issue some stock, they should they should take advantage of this hype in space stocks to get some money to build some more cool stuff and use that cool stuff to generate more returns for the business long term. I mean, this is what companies do, and stock issuances always create short-term pullbacks in stocks, but for good stocks, they are long-term opportunities. And I think it's exactly what we have here with Redwire. I think this is the level to be buying red wire. This is major, major technical level. You know, we had that major high from back in January around 1420. We are pretty much right there right now at $14. 50-day moving average here at 13.58 as well. So there's a lot of support here in this upper 13s level. You also had some lows from back here at 13.90 was the low in August of 25. Major low here at 13.90 in June of 25 as well. So, and then going all the way back to uh January of 25, a major low around 13.80. So this just feels like a really big level at which we can bottom. And I think red wire stock does bottom here. Like I said before, I like that $13 to $15 range to buy the dip in red wire. I like red wire here.
SPEAKER_02Excellent. So we're gonna move on to that next stock. Uh, what are your thoughts on BWX technologies?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, so BWXT has been one of our favorite uh picks and shovels plays on the nuclear renaissance uh in the U.S., powered by AI data centers. Uh BWXT is uh at its core the industrial backbone for U.S. nuclear power. They've been supplying the US Navy, uh, their nuclear propulsion program for decades now. And that's pretty much, I mean, that's been the bull thesis here. Like you just have a company that is an expert in nuclear components and nuclear technology at a time when demand for those components uh should be rising dramatically due to the structural power problem created by AI data centers and the fact that to solve that problem, uh the operators of these data centers are increasingly turning to um to nuclear. The risk here is that orbital compute becomes a really big thing, and obviously orbital compute is powered by the sun, and so nuclear uh doesn't have any place in the orbital compute world. Uh and my counter there would be that world is still many years away from becoming a reality, uh, probably 10 years away from becoming a widespread reality, and will never fully obsolete terrestrial compute. So the structural power problem created by terrestrial compute will persist for the next five to 10 years and likely be around forever. And so I think nuclear has a big growth narrative uh over the next five to 10 years, and BWXT to me is one of the core component suppliers in that growth narrative. The stock, I think, looks pretty technically attractive here. It's been weak because the nuclear trade, I think, has faded on orbital compute fears. I think it's a buying opportunity. This looks like a really healthy comeback to me. This is a stock that lost its 200-day moving average and is now U-turn put in a bottom right around the 180s, and is U-turn and is now back above the 200-day moving average on what was nearly an oversold RSI bounce. So I think this is a pretty attractive comeback. Looks very much kind of like this one back here in early 25 when we lost the 200 and then we retook it, and that started a big rally. I think similar setup here. I like the buy the dip proposition on BWXT.
SPEAKER_02Excellent. Love it. Uh moving on to the next question here. Uh, another stock story. Uh, so what are your thoughts on Bloom Energy at this level?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, so Bloom Energy, we've talked about it. We think they're becoming the go-to uh provider for um on-site backup power for AI data centers, and they keep winning more and more contracts with more and more providers and uh the hyperscalers, and they're scaling very quickly. So fundamentally, the company is really well positioned. Let's look at the numbers real quick on Bloom Energy to just kind of give the subscribers or give the viewers a sense of what we're dealing with here, the scope of the growth, the magnitude of the growth. As you can see right now, the numbers pulled up enormous. Uh, 83% revenue growth this year, 73% next year, 44%, 31%, 22%. So 20% plus into 2030, with multiple years of essentially 50% plus revenue growth, with margins are going to go, EBITDA is gonna go up from 20% this year to 30% basically by the end of the decade. So that creates a pathway for 50, 60, 70, 80% durable uh EBITDA growth in this company over the next several years. Massive, massive grower. Valuation is rich, but it's kind of settled down a little bit. Um, we're at 92 times, 93 times forward, 72 times forward EBITDA, which is attractive when you consider look at the trailing 12 months. That's smack average, right? Uh LTM average EBITA multiple is about 61.5 times. We're 72 times one standard deviation above is about 83. So this is one you want to buy on dips towards that 60x forward multiple and then fade on rips towards a hundred x forward multiple on EBITA. We're right on a well, we fell down to that 60x and now we're bouncing back. So I think this is a bounce you want to buy. And then you look at the chart, and the chart's pretty attractive. I think that we came in. Let me pull the numbers of the chart up. We came into the 50, we bounced V-shape recovery off the 50. This is a bounce that looks a lot like previous bounces that led to new highs. So I think this series of highs here, around 300, I think we eclipsed that this time. I think we go and make new highs in the stock.
SPEAKER_02Excellent. All right, we're rounding out to our last stock in question. So uh a question that's come up multiple times in our comments is about micron technology, one of the last companies to hit that trillion dollar club. So if you haven't gotten in, what is a good level to get into micron technologies? If you haven't gotten in, what's your level?
SPEAKER_00Okay, so that's a technical question. So let's just look at the chart then. If you haven't gotten in yet, what do you level to get in? Okay, so this is a stock that is absolutely run, but it's a stock that does pull back. Let me get the maximum drawdown up here for you because that would be a pretty good way to uh analyze this. Okay, so now we have the maximum drawdown, or it's pulling up. Okay, so as you can see, this is a stock that has been on a huge run ever since I would say the summer of 25. But during that time, it's had multiple 20% pullbacks. We had the 20% pullback pullback in August 25. We had another 20% pullback here in November of 25. We had a 20%, 30% pullback in March of 26, and then we had 20% pullback just recently in June of 26. So that was a good time to buy. Basically, what I'm saying is a 20% pullback looks like a good time to buy the stock. 20% pullback to major technical levels. So I don't think we get that right now. I think that we have blasted to new highs, or we blasted, we did get hit new highs recently, uh, around 1,080. Little pullback here, and I think we're gonna keep on making new highs. So if you want to enter right now, I think that that's totally fine. Alternatively, this goes to new highs, you wait for the next 20% pullback, and then and then you go ahead and and add up, add on that, um, on that drop. So I think the rule of thumb here for Micron, if you kind of want a broad technical rule of thumb, would be accumulate on 20% pullback. So if you had followed that rule since the breakout started in summer 25, you would have accumulated here, you would have accumulated here, you would have accumulated here, and you would have accumulated here. All great accumulation points. So if you have not yet started a position in Micron, maybe now is a pretty decent time to start a position and then plan to accumulate more on future 20% pullbacks because there will be 20% more 20% pullbacks in this name. That's just what it does. It takes five steps forward and then three steps back, and then five steps forward and three steps back. So that's kind of my technical strategy on Micron.
SPEAKER_02Excellent. Love it. Um, that's it for our questions. Do you have any uh closing remarks to close out this uh this week, Luke?
SPEAKER_00No, great questions, guys. Keep them coming, keep firing the questions. I love answering this stuff. I mean, these uh podcasts are for you guys, right? They're information for you guys, and sometimes we decide what to talk about, and it's not what you guys want us to talk about. So keep it keep asking questions, keep putting stuff in those comments, and we'll try to address all that stuff uh in future episodes. We love doing this, we do this for you, so yeah, please stay engaged, uh, keep asking questions, and we'll keep doing the best things wrong.
SPEAKER_01Excellent. Couldn't I say it better myself? All right, that's it for being exponential this week, folks. Take care.