GEMCAST - Where Private and Emerging Markets Meet

Episode 13: The Modern Silk Roads; deal making in Central Asia

Gemcorp Capital

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0:00 | 25:15

In episode 13 of Gemcast, we are joined be Senior Portfolio Manager Asad Hajiyev and Senior Vice President Shurong Li to discuss how Central Asia is emerging as a destination for private credit, the deals we have completed and what’s driving the trend.

Important Information 

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SPEAKER_02

Hello and welcome to Gemcast. We're in less salubrious times than we were for the last episode back in the studio here rather than at the Cabinda Refinery. If you didn't catch the episode, then make sure you go to YouTube and watch it. Get to see me in an interesting hat. Otherwise, today we are talking about Central Asia, the opportunities, the sectors, the countries within this uh abundant and exciting region. To have this discussion today, I'm joined by Sharon Lee, a senior vice president of our investment team, and Asad Hajiev, the senior executive officer of ADGM and a senior portfolio manager. Before we get into Central Asia, let's start with my favorite question, which is for both of you, as you're new on the pod, introducing yourselves, telling me about your job and why you're passionate about emerging markets. So, ladies first, Sharon, do you want to introduce yourself?

SPEAKER_03

Thank you, Tom. So I'm from China originally. I've been at Gem Corp since 2019. I guess I'm invited here because I had the pleasure to lead the recent Central Asia transactions at Gem Corp. As for why I'm passionate about emerging markets, really about the potential. So I'm from China originally, and I've seen China in my lifetime growing from barely being able to feed every mouth to where it is now. And that's an example of the EM world. And I want to be part of that growth in the whole emerging market.

SPEAKER_02

Awesome. Thank you very much, Sharon. And Asad?

SPEAKER_00

Delighted to be here. Thank you, Tom. Great to share this uh Gemcast with Sharon. Uh, my name is Asad Hajieev. I'm originally from Azerbaijan. So, in fact, from the region. Started my career after doing one year of military services at BP in L and Gas Finance. And in fact, I was wearing the same kit that you were wearing on your last Gemcast.

SPEAKER_02

Okay, good. I think you looked a bit better in it than I did, automatically.

SPEAKER_00

I doubt that, but thank you for trying. And um the fast forward from that experience, which I enjoyed uh deeply, I switched gears and went to uh investment banking, spent eight years at JP Morgan in London between Emerging Markets uh ECM, uh Natural Resources MA, and ultimately special credits, and joined uh Gem Corp now eight years, out of which six I spent here sitting not far from Sharon at all, and two years now in ADGM.

SPEAKER_02

Awesome, brilliant. So we really do have the perfect guest. So let's get started. What do we mean by central Asia? Let's just start with a simple question. Why are we talking about it today? Why are Gem Corp really interested in this region? Why are we doing deals here? Kick us off, Sad.

SPEAKER_00

With with pleasure. It's uh such a nice opportunity to talk about the region that is, first of all, vast. It's a half a trillion dollar economy, 80 million people, 40% of the world's uranium is produced here. Fourth largest gas reserves. The region can feed the entire Western Europe with its food production. Yet, I bet you if you ask most of the allocators, they will not be able to name three out of five capitals of the don't put me on the spot, please. We'll not do that. Good. We'll not do that. We'll not do that. Uh, why we're excited about this right now is a couple of things. So, first of all, the region experiencing very strong growth. Last year, the GDP growth was just under 7% compared to developed markets of 2%, and then the rest of the EM between four and five. That's a double uplift on the growth. Okay. In addition, given the latest geopolitical changes, the trade routes are being repurposed. It's a connector economy. The population is extremely young. Yeah. And 20 million people, young workers, are expected to be added to the economy over the next couple of years. So we like the macro, we like the positioning and the momentum. Okay.

SPEAKER_02

And practically speaking, what are what are the countries here? So there's Kazakhstan, that's the big one, but what else do we have around it? How does this flow into the Caucasus? Where do we sort of demarcate Central Asia on a map from our perspective?

SPEAKER_00

Absolutely. So if you think about it, uh you've got the Caspian Sea, which separates uh Azerbaijan from the uh Central Asian countries, which they're five, right? So you've got Kazakhstan, the largest, you've got Uzbekistan, you got Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

SPEAKER_02

Okay.

SPEAKER_00

And it's an important question because a lot of time people say, well, Central Asia, people sort of look the same, but they don't. It's not. Okay. It's like Africa. It's different countries. There's connectivity, but fundamental differences that exist. And we are excited exactly by that.

SPEAKER_03

Okay. Also, just to add from China angle, given the Belt and Road initiative, which the trade, the bilateral trade between China and Central Asia has just exceeded 100 billion. And I think more than the majority of China's trade into Europe is actually now transiting over Central Asia. So huge opportunity set over there.

SPEAKER_02

So the old Silk Roads. Let's get into geopolitics then. You took me there straight away, Sharon. So I'll I'll go there as well. Thinking about the map, Central Asia, this is obviously a traditional Russian heartland, I suppose, historically. You have China one side, Europe the other, and America's probably somewhere in the mix as well, I would imagine. So how how do how are those countries dealing with that geopolitical, to some extent maybe a gift, but maybe it's a curse? How do they manage that?

SPEAKER_03

Historically, Russia has been the main investor. But post the war era, the sanctions and various other reasons, because cap Russian capital has retrieved a little bit over there, which is actually also one of the opportunity sets.

SPEAKER_00

Okay.

SPEAKER_03

But maybe pass on to Azad for more details on the geopolitical side.

SPEAKER_00

This is this is exactly the point. This is an opportunity because until now the region was very much funded wholesale by Russian banks.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

With the change in the structure of financing, there is a gap in the private capital. That's one, to their new trade routes that are being created. There's need for more infrastructure. Sharon kindly mentioned exactly the point. Now a lot of the transactions are trying to be rerouted through this new and old actually route, which is the Silk Road. Yeah. And consequently, we don't think of it as an adjacent problem as such. It's fact it's a connector economy that has all the reasons to not only excel but benefit from the fact that the world is in need of diversification, reassuring, and onshoring. So momentum for us is perfect. Russia does play an important role because the remittances to likes of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan still constitute a large part of GDP. But as a matter of opportunity to provide financing, the market is wide open.

SPEAKER_02

Okay.

SPEAKER_00

Interesting.

SPEAKER_02

Touched a bit on the macro in the start. What's the dynamic here from a macro perspective? Are these economies growing? You talked a bit about demographic size, some sort of uh natural resource dividend. What's the macro dynamic driving them? How does it look across the different countries that you mentioned? Are they running at different speeds, same speeds? Help us understand the macro backdrop here.

SPEAKER_00

Absolutely. I'll try to be brief here because it's quite a lot. And uh we'll focus on two largest countries. So Kazakhstan first, it's the biggest economy, 300 billion uh GDP. It has wealth of natural resources.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

Uranium, we mentioned, it's 40% of global production, and the agricultural side. Okay. The country is looking to diversify, attract additional capital, but the economy is overheating a little bit, insofar as the base rate in the country is now 18%. We expect that to normalize probably to 14-15% over time. But there is an opportunity to provide flexible capital. Now, if you look at the context of Uzbekistan very briefly, it's a story of reforms. They differently to pretty much most of the countries in the Soviet Union, including um Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, they did not rush in the 1990s to privatize. In fact, the state retained most of the control over the economy. So that provided both graduality and tactical thinking about which assets to privatize when. So recently we've seen uh uh privatization in the banking sector. There's a very big pipeline coming on the table. So the momentum is great in both countries. There's a yield opportunity, there's withdrawal of other capital, there's a privatization push, and finally, as um it's applicable to most natural resource-driven economies, yeah, there's the need to diversify.

SPEAKER_02

Okay, so we've got a pretty positive macro backdrop. We've got an interesting geopolitical situation that probably puts them in a little bit of a sweet spot. What's the funding gap here then? Where do where does GemCorp fit in to the ecosystem? Where in the market are we looking? Do we get squeezed out by state-owned entities? Help us understand that, Sharon.

SPEAKER_03

Really good question. It's also quite different market by market. So Kazakhstan, for example, is very well funded overall, both by international funders but also the local banks. Okay. With Pakistan, on the other hand, is still in the process of opening up. So you have the influx of DFIs like IFC, BID coming in, uh chasing up more of the larger deals, slash you know, renewables or you know, certain impact angles, but leaving the mid-cap corporates kind of relatively underfunded. Yeah. And whilst the local bank liquidity is not as structured and it's not as adequate compared to Kazakhstan and the like the rest of the um the Central Asia countries, although being small, still also presents huge opportunities that we can talk later. Um we actually funded one of the uh Kirky Deals earlier this year. So in terms of Uzbekistan, our main focus will be mid-cap, kind of corporates which are not funded by local banks, uh not sufficiently funded by local banks, but well not as interested or chased by international funders. In Kazakhstan, although it is well funded, given the retreat of the Russian capital, we still see this opportunity gap for the key industries, you know, for example, the resources and trade finance opportunities, et cetera. Yep. Also structured finance, asset backed finance, um, maybe also acquisition financing, which is less offered by the local banks. Again, you know, we're probably targeting the smaller sides so that we're not competing with international, with the big international funders. Okay. We're looking for the spread of the alpha rather than competition and crowd in the market. Okay.

SPEAKER_02

And given the composition of the economy, we're doing lending to state-owned enterprises, quasi-sovereign.

SPEAKER_03

Of course, yeah, thank you. Yeah, we're definitely keen to look at that as well, to release the you know to state-owned enterprises so as to release the funding pressure from the state directly. Um, two of our recent transactions were actually from that angle as well. And it's uh we try to create a spread over the sovereign curve whilst maintaining the risk profile.

SPEAKER_02

Okay. You're gonna hear in this story, and I'm thinking this sounds pretty good. You've got countries that are investment grade, you've got relatively developed banking sector. Where's the spread here? How are we getting compensated for some of the risks that we're taking?

SPEAKER_00

Exactly. Kazakhstan is an investment great country. Yeah, right. The sovereign yield curve is in amid single digits, but the base rate is 18%. Okay. And the Kazakh currency has depreciated over time is a vis a dollar. Yeah. That gives us an opportunity to play because this is the specialty of Gem Corp, managing the FX risk and structuring transactions around hard currency flows. Okay. Specifically, we're targeting for the region uh mid-double digits for corporate and low double high single digits for quasi-sovereign. Okay. If you are looking at the uh developed markets private credit, that is seven to nine hundred bips of pickup, of which you can say two to three hundred is geopolitical risk, whatever, uncertainty. The rest is origination premium.

SPEAKER_02

Okay.

SPEAKER_00

So us being on the ground, going to the conferences, meeting people, and actually um talking directly to the borrowers provides that alpha that we can generate by being flexible in the form of capital we provide, and also most importantly, being quick.

SPEAKER_02

Okay. So what kind of deals are we doing? What have we done? Well, so far I think we've done quite a few. Do you want to sort of shed a bit of light on those, Sean?

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, happy to take that. So we've done kind of I'll very quickly cover the three kind of signature deals we did in the Central Asia region, two of which are quotient sovereign, one is in kind of gold mine. Okay. Um the two actually, the quota sovereign are also very different. One is in USD and one is in uh Uzbek Sum, which is a local currency in Uzbekistan. So the first one we did was the kind of a short-term bridge to LPN issue for the quotient sovereign, um, at least state-owned entity, um, to fund the kind of fundamental um agricultural program of the of the country. So um the yield we're getting, well, rather we got was slow double digit, which is actually a significant uptick to the sovereign curve with you to take the same duration, um, which was kind of in the seven, seven, mid-7A range.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03

So that's a great example of what that's at mentioned in terms of spread over, you know, that's the alpha we can get on the duration adjusted basis. The second transaction we did on the quota sovereign side is the Wispek Zoom transaction, which is super interesting, because we're getting double digit, high double digit returns. Well, sorry, um, high teens. Let me correct myself. That's a bit too much. I would love that. So um, but having said that, you know, there is local currency risk. Um, we don't typically do local currency, right? As a fund, we are USD funds. But in this particular case, we took a view based on the macro and also based on historical um trend of the country.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03

The spectrum has actually been appreciating over the course of last year. Yeah. And we expect it to, or we our view is it will continue to stable, stabilize slash appreciate over the course of the loan life, which would give you a stable slash even above high-tien's return, is what we're predicting.

SPEAKER_00

And to add maybe to that, uh, did you know that uh the Uzbek central bank has more gold in its reserves than the Bank of England?

SPEAKER_02

And it's well, that sort of doesn't surprise me actually, but that's maybe a different story.

SPEAKER_00

80% of the FX reserves are is gold. Yeah. The rest is self-explanatory. So we took a view exactly on the long currency. So far, I've been correct. And this is another element where we have a very strong quantitative team that does a macro assessment. Yeah, we don't go into the situation's local currency lightly, but this is one of those which we can say is a successful one.

SPEAKER_02

Well, let's talk about FX then. So you talked about that Uzbek Some deal, and as you say, you know, that is something that isn't something normal for Gem Corp. So, how are we trying to make that distinction in terms of doing that in local in local currency? But then also, where are we saying, look, we want to be in USD? Because that's kind of our core expertise. And then if we're doing those deals in USD, what is access to currency markets like in the region? Are they highly liquid? Can borrowers get access to to dollars?

SPEAKER_03

Yep, very good question. So maybe I should have clarified. In this case, we're taking the FX rate risk, but not conversion risk, right? i.e. the settlement currency is still USD. Yes. Okay. Also should mention GemCorp as a fund, our return or our performance is still measured in USD, which is why the FX risk is particularly essential. So in this particular case, um, we took the view based on, well, maybe stepping back, the first element you look at is what would be your return if you actually do the hedging to avoid that USD risk, to avoid the FX risk. In this case, the answer would be single digit return, or probably just around 10, right? Which is really not worth it. Um, or really not what brings you the alpha that we are looking for.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03

Therefore, we took the view that we should do active monitoring given the outlook of the sorry. Therefore, we decided to look into the currency and see if it's worth doing local currency.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03

So from for that, we did several analysis, right? So you look at historical trends, you look at forward-looking macro situation, and you do uh stress tests. So on historical, um, you look at, you know, since the currency reform of the country 2017, what has happened? You know, COVID, for example, only a 10% drop. Yeah. High teens absorb that easily. Yeah. Also, that's the extreme scenario, right? Um, what else? Basically, look, we looked at the historical extreme events, and in any of those, it's not really, it's all affordable risk, put it that way. Yes. And on the risk adjusted return basis, low currency really performs for this particular transaction. On the forward-looking basis, our macro, um, as I said already mentioned earlier, right, Uzbek as a country is really on the upward trending. Also, the gold reserve definitely helps. In addition to the gold reserve, the country is actually producing gold. I think it's the 10th largest in the country, in the world, rather. Um, so that production also gives you confidence or give you additional support, give the country additional support for the reserve, which preserves the currency value. Yeah. So on the forward-looking basis, we we uh we took a view as a committee that the currency is expected to stabilize slash appreciate further, which means on the risk adjusted return basis, the transaction holds its fit.

SPEAKER_02

Okay. Thinking about these transactions we did, and I'm always interested in in this the sort of cultural aspects of deal making in different countries, different regions. And I think it's one of our, as a business, one of our sort of structural advantages is that we have people who understand those cultural dynamics. Maybe you're sad, given you're from Azerbaijan as well. What's deal making like culturally there? How does it differ to the typical deal making that you see in the US and the UK and developed markets? How does it differ?

SPEAKER_00

Very good. First of all, when you go there, be prepared to be blown away by the hospitality. Okay. So personalities come first. That said, people are extremely uh trade and business oriented, insofar as the region has always been historically on the route where traders came and went. So the culture is very entrepreneurial. Yeah. The median age is in mid-20s, right? Two times younger than in Europe. So hence the vibrant population that requires a bit of support. Yeah. What we found extremely refreshing is when dealing with the counterparties, they are not only willing to listen, but they welcome your feedback on how to structure the trade. This is a difference to the way things can be done in developed markets where you kind of get served the term sheet. Yeah. You have two, three terms, you can move. Here, it's a blank sheet of paper. So that is refreshing in itself. Importantly, the counterparties we've always interfaced in the region. They're proud of paying on time, being precise, reviewing the documents with diligence. So, in my humble opinion, absolute pleasure to work.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

Look forward to the trips. We've done several. Two fun facts to quickly mention for those of you who haven't been, I strongly recommend go to the region. Kazakhstan is the largest landlocked country in the world.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

It has the Baikonur Launch Station for the International Space Station. So every astronaut from Japan or United States or Europe that went to International Space Station.

SPEAKER_02

They came from Kazakhstan.

SPEAKER_00

Correct. And Uzbekistan is one of the two double-lang locked countries in the world.

SPEAKER_02

Double landlocked countries.

SPEAKER_00

Second one being Liechtenstein. Okay. There we go. So a little bit of two resume action here, but yeah.

SPEAKER_03

That's amazing. Also just to add on the deal making experience. So I've been on the on the trip with the Sad and Paveletta to the to the country, to the Central Asia regions. And I was so impressed, not only by the corporates and people, we also had the pleasure to meet some of the governors, uh governors. And they were working like 8 p.m. We had meetings like 8 p.m. We had meetings on Saturdays. Like people were just so hardworking and also so keen and welcoming in terms of foreign capital in this process of opening up, which is really encouraging for investors, private investors like us, right? Where you'll see not only this strong state supports in this influx of capital, but also they are working hard for it, right? You don't get, at least I haven't personally seen this level of you know 8 p.m. Saturday meetings in Europe or in any other countries I worked in personally.

SPEAKER_02

Well, that makes sense. It's always fascinating to hear those little sort of on-the-ground tidbits and things you pick up. Because I think that you're just so much more than you're going to pick up at a spreadsheet, right? Which probably actually neatly leans into what's GemCorp bringing to the party here? Like, so maybe to the point on the spread question, like the you know, these are not some of the other markets where we do business in where there is massive capital scarcity. So and my sense is that some of the bigger players will be in and around some of the big deals here. So, what's our structural advantage? Like, how do we manage to make it work in Central Asia where maybe some other people can't?

SPEAKER_00

Two quick answers is one is tailor capital structures, and second, targeting the right segment of the economy. So I'll start with the latter. There's plenty of GFI capital. Uh, Middle Eastern investors are deploying into renewable space. So the countries themselves, they're boasting, you know, hundreds of billions of uh FX and otherwise reserves. Yeah. And as you say, they're quite dollarized economies. However, given the youth of the population, there's a big segment that requires support before banks even look at them.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

So that's one area we love to play. We help businesses grow, we share some of the success. We never burden anyone with very high interest rate just for the sake of doing that. But if things go well, we hope to participate.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

That is one element. And the second element on this is that Gem Corp, by bringing its global emerging markets DNA, hopefully brings some of the knowledge. Yeah. By working with the counterparties in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and other countries in the region, we share some of that. We learn from each other, and then it becomes a snowball effect. More and more people find out that we're doing things well. Specifically, as you know, Tom, about 20% of the capital we've deployed since inception came from coinvestors. Yeah. And that's what makes us proud. We have a number of parties who trust our structuring experience. We open the door on a deal, more people come. So not only we bring hopefully knowledge on the ground origination, but also amplification of capital. Okay.

SPEAKER_03

Also, just to add, Jemco, what's special, one special point about Jemco is we really have we really try to get a deep understanding of the country, of the regions. Right. So we travel there. Not only do we meet the borrowers, we also meet, I mentioned like the government or the IFM, the you know, um IFC, BID, you know, all the cohort lenders, or as much basically absorb as much information as we can to make a view of the region overall and to try to find back steals. Also, we should have mentioned we also have a kind of long history for the region. Our um chief investment officer, Paveletta, um, was one of the first street economists covering the region in Kazakhstan in, I think back in 2097, 98. Yeah. So, you know, our depth of knowledge is not only current, but also coherent of the of the history and the changes. Just identify the opportunity set from there.

SPEAKER_02

Awesome. So, what's the outlook? What's our conviction? Is there kind of sectors, countries that we're particularly bullish on? Like what what do we think kind of comes next for Central Asia?

SPEAKER_00

We want and need to increase allocation to the region. Okay. The opportunity set is vast, and in the pursuit of diversification and yield, it's a perfect time to be there. We feel like the private credit universe will discover the region, same way they've discovered Middle East five years ago and Latam 20 years ago. Yeah. So while the lane is open, we would like to drive and capture the opportunity. More specifically, the allocation is diversified across sectors, right? There is a natural resources angle, but we are very good in trade finance. Yeah. And that is fundamental in the context of what we're discussing, new trade routes being established, countries diversifying away from existing trading partners. For example, Kazakhstan's third of their exports goes to Europe. Yeah. So it's a very well uh plugged-in economy. And as things change, populations grow and the economies expand, there are many opportunities where the first mover advantage is where we'd like to thrive. And by doing so, we're not selfish or greedy. We're very happy to work with coin investors. Yeah. And a private credit game is not a competition game. You risk share, you amplify capital, and therefore deliver more utility value to the counterparties you play with.

SPEAKER_02

Awesome. So with that, I think we'll wrap up today's Gemcast. I think the one thing I'll take from your closing comments, Asad, was the perfect time to be thinking about Central Asian private credit. Thank you very much, Sharon.

SPEAKER_03

Thank you, Tom.

SPEAKER_02

Thank you very much, Asad. If anybody wants to find out more about Central Asia or about Gem Corp, then visit www.gemcorpcapital.com and thank you for listening.