LATEST Inflation Numbers, Iran, and 3 BIG WARNINGS | ZFS 77

I recorded this one on the move. We have a missing dog and I had to get this out before I went to go find him. If you are in Camden Delaware and you see a dog named Bo please hit me up.

On to the episode. Inflation just dropped this morning from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and it came in higher than expected at 4.2% annual. Energy is up 23.5% year over year. Fuel oil is up 58.9% year over year. And I want you to really sit with that because fuel oil is not just your gas tank. Fuel oil is in everything that ships, manufactures, farms, and moves in this country. That is not a gas price problem. That is an everything problem.

Trump has now claimed the Iran deal was close 38 times since this war started. The war has now crossed 100 days and is more than ten days past the legal limits of the War Powers Resolution of 1973. Three US bases in Jordan and Kuwait were hit overnight. An Apache helicopter went down over the Strait of Hormuz. And Trump put out a tweet this morning about the naval blockade. Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded calling us the American terrorist regime. I am a veteran and I barely had a visceral reaction to that anymore. That should tell you something.

Then I close with three big warnings. JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon, the IMF, and the CEO of Exxon are all saying the same thing from different angles. Something is coming and the stock market is not reflecting it.

Three things you can do. Hold assets. Recession proof your job. Take care of yourself.

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:06

Welcome into episode number 70. Oh, I didn't check. 77 of the Zach Foul Show. John, can you confirm andor deny 77?

SPEAKER_02 0:16

I don't know.

SPEAKER_01 0:17

Oh man. Welcome to the unknown episode of the ZachFowl show, where today we're talking about inflation because we have a brand new report to talk about. Inflation just dropped this morning from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, and we have Iran. An update on an endless seeming war that was supposed to be a two to four week excursion. How it's impacting oil and energy, though, is what we're going to talk about. And then the last thing we're going to talk about are three big warnings coming from very high-level officials around this economy. So we're talking inflation, we're talking Iran, and we got three big warnings. Are you locked in with me? Let's get this. I'm grateful for you. Thank you for joining us, by the way. Several different news outlets, media platforms, scrollable platforms that you can conform to and give your time to when you're choosing to be here. And I think that's kind of dope. Let's have a good hour sesh or so together. I will let you know I'm going to be rushing a tad bit and I'll ask for your forgiveness ahead of time. We have a dog that is missing in my family, and we just had a sighting this morning. So I'm going to be leaving this podcast immediately to go look for Bo. And if you happen to live in Camden, Delaware, want to help look for Bo, hit me up. Let's start though by hearing from what's going on from I guess I said we're going to do inflation first. Can I show you this tweet real quick, this truth from Donald J. Trump? He puts this out over the what was this Monday? It's Monday. Stating Israel and Iran must immediately stop shooting. He put quotes around shooting. I just want to know. I'm not, I'm not, this is not political. This is not political. This is that's nothing. Pretend this guy isn't the president. Israel and Iran must immediately stop quote unquote shooting. What does that mean? Why why did he put quotes around shooting? I don't. I'm looking to Sean like he's gonna have the answer. I don't think Sean's got the answer. It's such a weird. I just want to throw that in there. Let's get into inflation.

SPEAKER_02 2:21

Maybe it's like the shooting, shooting the videos. I think about Iran and their Lego videos. Maybe he wants them to stop shooting that stuff. Maybe he wants them to stop shooting those epic Lego videos. He thinks they're they're not AI.

SPEAKER_01 2:31

Maybe he's trying to send like a coded message. If I put this out, everyone else won't think it's about the war. But they'll know. Yeah, they know. I need the Lego movies to stop. Let's bring up some real news though. The U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics, of whom our government relies on for all of its up-to-date inflation data, came out with its latest consumer price index. Now, what this is, is they take about 30 to 40,000 different items in these different baskets that they track to see whether or not they are more or less expensive than they were last month, and whether they are more or less expensive than they were last year. Whether or not they were more or less expensive than they were last year number is the headline inflation number that you'll hear talked about on the news. That number came in today higher than expected. They expected about 3.9%. They got 4.2%, the unadjusted 12-month ended May 26th column. Let's scroll up real quick and read what they came in these what came with these findings. Zoom out just a little hair for me. Beautiful. The consumer price index for all urban consumers increased 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.6% in April. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 4.2% before seasonal adjustment. The index for energy rose 3.9% in May after rising 3.8% in April. Pause. Those numbers I just read to you were not annual increases for energy. These are month-over-month increases in energy. The index for energy rose 3.9% in May after rising 3.8% in April and 10.9% in March. The energy index accounted for over 60% of the monthly all items increasing. The index for shelter also increased in May, rising 0.3%. The food index increased 0.2% over the month, as the food at home index also rose 0.1%. If we go to the last paragraph, we'll see the all items index rose 4.2% for 12 months ending May, after rising 3.8% for the 12 months ending in April. The all items less food and energy index, which simply means all the items except for those that are attached to food or energy rose 2.9%. So for all those that you know see this data, and I see it too, of like let's scroll down real quick. Let's look at the energy row. So up a little bit. Energy. So energy, uh you picked the one energy one that's not high. Those are those are yeah. Energy as a whole up 23.5% year over year, energy commodities up 40.6, gasoline, all types 40.5. Sean realizing this is the hardest graph to highlight ever in existence. Fuel oils up 58.9% year over year. And those numbers, if you put them all to the side, take all those energy numbers plus food and put it to the side, inflation's still 2.9%. Now, here's the thing about this inflation report that I think people aren't talking about enough is inflation in clothing. All right, inflation and clothing. What happens when the prices go high in the genre of clothing? Let's theorize, okay? It's a pretty simple commodity clothing. If you can afford it, you'll buy it. If you can't afford it, you may still buy it, but it's ultimately not doing you any better than the cheaper shirt or the cheaper pants. Unless you're in an environment where, let's say, having heavier jackets is gonna is gonna keep you out of the Alaska tundra or you hunt, or you know, you work a job where you need to have your Duluth jeans because you're you're in that blue collar work, your steel-toed boots. At the end of the day, clothing moving up and down is isn't going to affect. Well, let me just ask this. Do you think clothing going up significantly would affect other items within the economy? I'll just ask it like that. Real simple. Do you think if clothing were to go up, hoodies, sweaters, baby clothes, work clothes, clothes for swimming, clothes for going, I don't, what other what other things do you use clothes for? Jackets, uh socks, sneakers, all these other like uh headbands. I don't know what gets into like miscellaneous, but clothing. If clothing were to go up, all apparel associated with it, would that affect other segments of the economy? Would it force prices elsewhere to go up? Would it force prices elsewhere to go down? Ultimately, I don't think it would really affect anything else, it would just be clothing. Why is clothing higher? I don't know. We're completely making things up here because clothing's not spiking. But my point is oil being of a higher variety of price as it's choosing to be right now, uh, fuel oil again, up 58.9%. Guys, fuel oil is not a v-neck. Fuel oil is is is is is in everything. And every time I think I've thought of all the things oil's a part of, I realize there's something else I had not yet thought about that is priced some way, shape, or form in or around oil. Like shipping, exporting, manufacturing, tilling. It's it's not as simple as just your car. This is going to reverberate throughout the entire economy. Frankly, why? It's because everything is getting more expensive to bring to your hands. And your hands already have less money statistically, unless you're on the top side of the K, than you did five years ago. Prices have doubled, at least gone up 50%, if not doubled, in most all genres across the space. So you have less money, everything around you is more expensive, and now companies are facing a higher cost of production. So we talk about this all the time, and I've been talking about it now. I feel like a spinning wheel for two years, talking about bond rates won't come down. Mortgage rates have to come down, but that only happens when bond rates come down. And bond rates won't come down as long as inflation is foreseeable. And when fuel prices are high, it's not a hoodie. Okay. When you're when your camping gear is more expensive, you might just not go camping. Or you'll just spend the money and just go camping. If you need, if you need a new hoodie because your other one got a hole in it, your special Cavaliers hoodie, and you need a new Cavaliers hoodie, you're you're just gonna look at the price and you're gonna assess whether or not that's gonna make sense for you. That hoodie, being expensive or not expensive, though, isn't going to affect any other part of the economy. Oil affects everything. It affects everything. And that effect is it is a higher cost to produce the good that they want to put into your hands. The cost of the good that they want to put in your hands, the cost of producing it, the cost of maybe they're putting it together in a factory. That requires oil. What about shipping? They're shipping it out to you, maybe, to the store. Maybe the people that are sending them the parts initially so they can put it together, they're shipping it. That uses oil. So the cost of producing these goods are going to go higher. Signaling to investors that are investing in the bond market than inflation's around the corner. And they've been signaling this for months and months and months and months and months. I keep telling you inflation's not going away. I can read it in the numbers, and here we are having more confirmed numbers. 4.2% the year-over-year inflation, and it's not going away because fuel is 23%, 40%, 40%, and 58% higher than it was this time last year. Any questions on why inflation's not going away? Now, what can you do about this? What are your actionable steps in an ever-inflating economy? Well, I'm glad you asked. The arc that we've been traveling is we we will continue to play the debt-based game until something cracks, and then we will print to fill the cracks. I think we're working up a hell of a crack in terms of stagflation, in terms of obviously what's going on in Iran, not ending anytime soon, global trade, urea for food, fertilizer, oil. We just mentioned 20% of it's coming out of the strait. And by the way, for those that are like, well, hey, Zach, um America's getting its oil used now. They're not going to Iran, those terrorists. We don't want the terrorists making oil money. We're running out of oil. And we're going to touch on that at the end of the episode. We're running out. We can't do this forever. We can't do this according to who we're going to listen uh hear about at the end. We can't do this for another maybe two weeks. We're not talking about two years, two months, two weeks, 14 days, maybe 13. By the time you're listening to this, 12, I don't know when you're listening this. Maybe you're listening to this in two weeks, and you might want to go look at the graphs. Because it's what's coming from very high-level, very respectable individuals that are making very respectable claims about supply. So for you, if you're thinking 10, 20, 30 years down the road, you need to own assets. You need to, need to, need to, need to, need to, need to own assets. It could be housing, it could be stocks, it could be an index fund, it could be silver, it could be gold, it could be crypto, it could be a schlew of all of them. In fact, the more diversified, the better. No fart coins, no, no getting uh like crazy uh soloist on like a single stock, like 20 grand uh just into this one stock. I love index funds, I love groupings, I love diversification. But hear me, the worst thing that can come out of everything that we're seeing long term isn't some mad maxian style collapse of our economy, it's hyperinflation. That that is what you should be more scared of, by the way, than a full-fledged clash. It's that it doesn't, and then we just ever inflate and ever print. And the only people that will benefit from printing, as we've seen in the past historically, and we know probably is gonna hold true in the future, the only people that benefit from money being printed are the banks, the governments, and asset holders. So I really, really, really, really, really encourage you to do uh one thing specifically with your money. As I am not a financial advisor, I'm a guy in a basement in Delaware. Hold assets. Zach, the stock market's gonna collapse because of the SpaceX IPO. It might. I don't know. Zach, what's going on in Iran is gonna topple the entire global economy. Maybe we'll say it like that forever. Zach, the housing market's ballooned. No one's paying these prices. Actually, they are, unfortunately. The data says they are. It's not as high of a volume, but we also don't have the lending practices that we had prior to 2008. So I don't think that happens either. And if it did, it would be just like 2008. It would be two, three, four years, and then it would fully recover. So, with all that being said, we're in an inflating economy. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics is verifying this via all these numbers and clearly stating what we all know to be true. Oil prices are higher, fuel commodities are higher, that is leading to higher costs every which way. Why? Iran. Let's get into it. Where are we at here? Jeez. Sean is doing some pleasure reading behind the scenes. Which, by the way, Sean, quick question.

SPEAKER_02 14:54

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 14:54

You reading anything right now? You in a book?

SPEAKER_02 14:56

Yeah, I am actually. I'm reading the book that you gave me. Oh, Christianity and uh or separation of church and hate. That's what I've been reading. Nice. And it's been pretty good.

SPEAKER_01 15:04

Yeah, he's a he's just a funny writer.

SPEAKER_02 15:06

Yeah, he's got some, he's got some funny parts in there. Um it's really hard to write funny. I feel like it's just hard to write.

SPEAKER_01 15:12

Like it's so like you can do that funny, yeah. Yeah, when you're that good at writing, you can also write funny. That's impressive.

SPEAKER_02 15:19

Yeah, yeah. No, it's a good book. It's a it's really good. Um, I started reading a people's history of the United States. I didn't finish that. I need to get back into that. And then I just got a book while I was on vacation. Um, I'm gonna start reading Dungeon Crawler Carl. Wait, that's the book.

SPEAKER_01 15:34

Dungeon Crawler Carl?

SPEAKER_02 15:35

Yeah, it's actually a really good book.

SPEAKER_01 15:38

Separation of church and hate. Zionism and and the the geopolitical struggle of religion. Yeah, the people's history of the United States, the corrupt founding of our country, and the uh maybe the theology behind those file the people that created it, and then the dungeon crawler Carl?

SPEAKER_02 15:56

Yeah, so I my brother actually put me onto it. He said it's really good. Um what's it about? I don't know a hundred percent, but I know it has to do with the guy who's like trying to save the world with his ex's cat following him around, and it's very it's like fantasy and stuff like that.

SPEAKER_01 16:11

Yeah, it sounds like DD when you talk about dungeons and stuff.

SPEAKER_02 16:14

Yeah, I I don't know exactly what it is, but I I've I've heard a couple people talk about it. I'm like, all right, now I just gotta read it. So apparently there's like nine books, and I'm like, let me at least read the first plenty of lore. Yeah, so anyway, that's my long answer to what I'm reading right now. I'm reading a couple.

SPEAKER_01 16:28

That's a great answer. I like reading, it's fun. It is fun. I don't read much fiction though. It's a good I need to have a I need to have a fiction break.

SPEAKER_02 16:36

Yeah, like reading too much. Like, I've never been a big nonfiction guy, so reading those books is like it's kind of tough for me, but I like I feel like nonfiction takes so long to read because I want to do research on what I'm taught, what I'm reading, especially if I don't know what it is. Right. But fiction is just like, oh, I can just immerse myself in this world and like get involved with the main character and see what's going on. Like that that's it's always cool. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 16:57

You're right. On the nonfiction side, I'm highlighting, I'm taking notes and research and stuff. It takes a long time. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 17:03

I don't want to read it and then like forget it, even though I know I probably will for the most part, but it's still still try to do that.

SPEAKER_01 17:09

Speaking of heavy lore, I was thinking about this the other day. You know what we need to do again? Was that we need to get a DD crew again together?

SPEAKER_02 17:15

Oh, yeah, that was fun.

SPEAKER_01 17:17

This table and the lighting we have would be dope for.

SPEAKER_02 17:20

I've never been a dungeon master, but I can try.

SPEAKER_01 17:22

Oh, I'm the dungeon master! You can be like Carl. I gotta look up what this book says. Yeah, you can be Dungeon Carl. All right, so Donald Trump puts out, man, I said this is gonna be quick. We gotta zoom. Sorry. Donald Trump, no, you're good. Donald Trump put out a few tweets this morning as we're listening to this on June 10th. Put out a tweet hating on uh Joe Goldboro. I don't know who that is. Uh put a lot of hate out toward Stephen A. Smith. Uh, he had put out some hate toward him by going to the finals game. Uh, and he also put out how the fake news media, this is tweet, refuses to report how effective the United States naval blockade is. The most successful blockade in the history of naval warfare. Nothing gets through unless we want it to. It's a steel wall. Iron Okay, it is iron if it was an O. Okay, my bad. Iran, which just shows how stupid the English language is. Iran iron.

SPEAKER_02 18:24

Like how iron is doing zero business. I might be able to because it's a ironist.

SPEAKER_01 18:30

You just see the iron market's tank because he accidentally put iron instead of iron. I'm getting rid of all of the iron right. Damn it. No, sell, sell, sell.

SPEAKER_02 18:39

I can't make my iron armor. Damn it.

SPEAKER_01 18:42

Iran is doing zero business, not paying their military or any of their bills, and quickly becoming a failed nation. Lots of oil is getting out. Praise be to Allah, President Donald J. Trump. So as of this morning, we've officially hit our second tower. We've hit our second praise be to Allah from President Donald J. Trump. The second tower has been hit, Mr. President. I've there this has to be an economic warning signal. There has to be a tracker. In the future, there's going to be a documentary, and they're going to involve his use of this phrase as a recession indicator.

SPEAKER_02 19:24

This is going to be in history books. It's crazy. It's going to have all the truths laid out and then not all of them.

SPEAKER_01 19:29

He had 48 this morning.

SPEAKER_02 19:32

Oh my god. You're gonna people are gonna be writing an essay on like what is the craziest uh truth that our president 100 years ago put out?

SPEAKER_01 19:40

Like 100 years ago, Jesus Christ.

SPEAKER_02 19:42

Like, break down what this truth means.

SPEAKER_01 19:45

Break down the poetry of this tweet put out June 10th, 2026. So what is he uh what is first of all, what is he talking about? Um, first of all, let's just what is he talking about? All that to the side. What the fake news media refuses to report how effective do you uh the U.S. Naval could block it? How effectively it's choking out the world economy? They want you want them writing about that? Congrats, you're doing a great job, Mr. President. You've successfully made sure no boats have made it out to their given. It's just so stupid. I gave a keep a straight thought. It's like what we're about to walk through, there have been attacks from both sides, United States, Iran, Israel, for the last 48 hours. And he's deciding to, instead of talking about the fact that three different United States bases were bombed in in Jordan and Kuwait, and I think there was one other place. We'll get to it in a moment. He's talking about how the media is not reporting on how well he's blocking the strait, the blockade on Iran's blockade. I don't get it. It's the most successful blockade in the history of the naval warfare, he says. Why aren't we talking about this more? Because they're concerned about the world economy, Mr. President. They're worried about inflation, Mr. President. They can't afford gas, Mr. President. They're not writing about how well you're making sure that this war hurts Americans the most. They're not writing about that. They're writing about the effects of it. They're not saying, wow, what a historic blockade this uh this has turned out to be. They're instead just reporting on inflation, which is kind of the same thing, if you really think about it. It's kind of the same thing, Mr. President. Let's go on to our next tab. Because I want to show that there are boats that have made it through the U.S. block. Uh, this is a Hong Kong flagged oil tanker passes through Strait of Hormuz amid U.S. blockade. Ava 6 passage marks at least the second transit of a China linked tanker through the waterway since the U.S. military. Military operation began. Okay, so there are ships that are making their way through. Let's go on to what else Trump is saying. He has said this war is done, uh, accounted 38 times. That is a real stat. Trump has said the Iran war deal has been close. We're right on the cusp of a deal 38 times since the start of this conflict. New polling shows that two-thirds of Americans do not view Trump as an effective negotiator to end the war. I'd be curious who is polled, of course, where the poll was taken, how many people were polled, what were the questions, but the analysis comes as the joint US-Israeli war on Iran surpasses a hundred days. The war has not been authorized by Congress and is now more than 10 days beyond the limits meant to be followed by the War Powers Resolution of 1973. Good. So now we're not just breaking national law, we're breaking international law with this war. Sick. CNN's Aaron Blank, who conducted the analysis, so okay, get a little gist of the biased. Okay, still. Trump first announced that a deal was pending March 23rd when he claimed that, quote, major points of agreement, unquote, and quote, almost all points of agreement, unquote, had been reached between all parties involved. And again, that was March 23rd, month and a half ago, two months and a half ago. Jesus. We are just zoomed through. I'm even losing track. I'm even losing track. And speaking of bias, I have no clue who Truth Out is. This might be an Epstein news outlet. We got to look into Truth Out. And of course, CNN is just fake news, right? We can't listen to anything CNN says. CNN is just fake news. That's that's the fake news media that's not writing about the blockade. He shouldn't be doing statistical analysis on how many times Trump has said the war is going to be over when it's not. He should be writing about how successful the U.S. blockade is. That must be what he was talking about. Trump then said a minute later on Truth Social, a literal minute, Iran's military is a complete and total mess. Much of it, like their Navy and Air Force, doesn't even exist anymore. They have been completely defeated. Iran is all talk and no action. The bully of the Middle East is dead. They've taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, and now they will have to pay the price. With three exclamation points. That came out this morning. Nothing to worry about there. Because he did say that he was going to eliminate an entire generation of people and make 80 million people disappear, and there's going to be an orange glow coming from their country, and nothing ended up happening. But this tweet is in retaliation of what happened over the last 48 hours. So let's unpack what happened in the last 48 hours. Because if you're like me, it's hard to keep up. It is hard to keep up once war is ongoing. Who hit who, why they hit who, uh, how they were hit, how they retaliated, what's real, what's fake. So we conglomerated what we believe to be the story arc of what's happened over the last three days. So it starts with Trump. Oh no, actually, this is where it ends. Let's move this to uh right after that Facebook post. Yep, right there. All right, so this started with an Apache helicopter. This was posted June 9th. So this was yesterday. It says forces began launching self-defense strikes against Iran at 5 p.m. Eastern today at the Commander-in-Chief's direction in response to yesterday's downing of a U.S. Army Apache helicopter. The mission is a proportional response to unjustified Iranian aggression. Now, an Apache helicopter went down on Monday over the Strait of Hormuz. I'm actually I'm I have a couple reporters now that I'm actually able to text and say, hey, what do you think about this? So that's cool. What do you what do they think about this? And I'm getting multiple reports that it's two helicopters, not just one, both were disabled, not shot down, to the point where they were able to actually land on the water. And then apparently they were saved by an autonomous water drone. I don't know what that means. Some autonomous water drone apparently went out, saved the pilots, got the pilots out. What's still being debated though is how the helicopters went down, because Iran's not saying we attacked, attacked. There are some reports saying that they went ahead and shot because America had not heeded their warnings many times. They said, stop flying here, and they just were. And other reports say that it was actually an Iranian drone that didn't blow up the helicopters, it actually got stuck in the rotors, which sounds like a crazy story. But as someone who's flown a drone and out of like the seven times I've done it, I've crashed it four times. I get it. Sean hates when I get behind a drone because he knows what I'm capable of. I've crashed many a drone. So let's go on to what Dropsite News said. Love DropSight. In fact, Julian was one of the uh reporters that I leaned on for some information before this podcast. Dropsite News puts this out yesterday. All right, he says there are competing claims over the downed U.S. Apache as Iran denies responsibility. A U.S. Army AH 64 Apache helicopter went down near the coast of Oman while patrolling the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, with both crew members rescued within two hours by an unmanned drone boat. The cause remains disputed, with four conflicting accounts now emerging. Pause. Could you imagine the quick little conflicting thought process of an unmanned boat coming to pick you up? Couldn't you have just been thinking for a second? What if this is Iran's? Because there's no one actually on it.

SPEAKER_02 28:28

I would assume it's just got an American flag on it. I didn't even know that was a thing. Unmanned drone boat, does it fly and also go in the water?

SPEAKER_01 28:35

Well, drone just means it can be controlled, doesn't mean it flies. Oh. To my understanding, drones don't have to fly. Like drone bots are just robots.

SPEAKER_02 28:45

Oh, I've never heard of that. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 28:46

Drone bots.

SPEAKER_02 28:47

Oh, like drones, like being like, Yeah, like from Star Wars.

SPEAKER_01 28:52

I think. I maybe a drone by definition means it's flying. I don't think so. Could be wrong. I still want to know what that boat looked like. And there had to be a little bit of a little bit of a thought came up of like, is this unmanned boat what I should be getting on? This Waymo in the straight of form. It's a ghost. It's a ghost boat. Trump said on Truth Social that Iran shot down the helicopter and that the U.S., quote unquote, must of necessity respond. The IRGC claimed its Navy speed boat fired on the aircraft after it had ignored warnings. And Iran's deputy foreign minister told Al Jazeera on Tuesday, which I will give a lot of credit to Al Jazeera. They've been reporting on this war very consistently and very accurately, that Iran was not responsible. And that, quote, there was no deliberated targeting, unquote, adding that incidents should incidents could occur unintentionally, quote, given the tense atmosphere in the strait. And then CENTCOM said the cause is, quote, under investigation, unquote. The Apache is the first of its kind to be lost since the U.S.-Iran war began in February. U.S. forces have recently been pushing Apaches increasingly close to Iranian-controlled islands in the strait as part of an aggressive patrolling posture. Last month, Apaches and Navy helicopters destroyed six Iranian small boats, threatening commercial shipping. Iran has previously shot down around 30 U.S. Reaper drones and several fighter jets since hostilities began. That is a big hunk of metal to just be flying down back to Earth. That is a gigantic vessel. And I've never been in an Apache. I've been in a couple cool, like Chinooks and stuff like that. Apaches are really cool. They're so quick. They're so fast. They got all these different look at all the different guns it's got. That is the probably my favorite aircraft in the military. Screw planes, screw jets. That's a really cool piece of machinery. But by whatever means it was shot down, had to be terrifying on the way down because there is no, and correct me if I'm wrong, because everyone's a military expert. I'm a real estate agent in my basement. There's no ejection seats on a helicopter. I would hope not, because they would just go up into the road.

SPEAKER_03 31:16

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 31:16

Right? So you have you're just going down with it, right? It had to be terrifying. Had to be terrifying. So let's backtrack. There was an attack on an Apache helicopter. Based off that attack on that Apache helicopter, the US struck Iran in four different cities, Tehran to be included, last night. About seven minutes later from our attack, Iran launched a counteroffensive. Let's pull up this YouTube video.

SPEAKER_00 31:53

Iran has launched a strike on US installations in the Gulf region, saying it's in response to U.S. attacks overnight. Tehran released this footage showing missiles being launched towards US targets in the region. The strikes come after U.S. attacks around the Strait of Hormuz. Washington says that it was in retaliation to the downing of a helicopter. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arachi condemned the attacks as a violation of its sovereignty and reiterated Iran's right to respond in self-defense. Iran's Revolutionary Guard says it targeted Al-Azrak based in Jordan and Ali al-Salaam based in Kuwait. Jordan's armed forces say it shot down five missiles with no injuries or material damage reported. Explosions were also seen in Bahrain, where the Interior Ministry says warning sirens were sounded. The public was told to take shelter. Iran has warned of more severe responses if the U.S. continues its attacks. All of those strikes comments.

SPEAKER_01 32:53

So Bahrain, that is the second time that they have had their air raid sirens on since the war began. And Jordan uh sorry, Kuwait, we pull up this, I think it was right off Facebook. Why does it have a Facebook logo? This is a picture. Off the Kuwait Army's official Twitter page, took this picture off, says the general staff of the Kuwaiti Army announces that Kuwaiti air defense systems are currently intercepting hostile aerial targets in accordance with approved operational procedures. It urges everyone to adhere to the security and safety instructions and guidelines issued by the competent authorities and to obtain information from authorized official sources. That first line sounded like they're aboarding an airplane. Everyone must adhere to the security and safety instructions and guidelines. You're being bombed. That's that's uh that's a light way of putting it. You're being bombed actively, which by the way, can I tell a story real quick about a time I was getting bombed? So I retold this story actually yesterday because we were okay. So we were heading back down from our anniversary dinner. I say yesterday, I meant last weekend.

SPEAKER_02 34:02

Good time to talk about you getting bombed.

SPEAKER_01 34:04

Great time to talk about getting bombed. Hey, honey, great dinner. Uh by the way, remember when I remember this time in Afghanistan? So, which I have a whole other story between me and my wife that's much more coveted in our relationship of when she thought I was getting bombed in Afghanistan. I'll tell that another time. So we're on our way back from a double date we did from our anniversary with our brother and sister-in-law. And I won't disclose which of the three of the four of us needed to poop, but one of us really needed to poop. And to distract this person from the need to poop, we told funny stories about other times where either ourselves or people around us had to poop in funny situations. So when I was in Afghanistan, whenever we were getting attacked, there would be a raid siren that would hit. And that would be your signal to get on your armor, your your vest and your helmet, your weapon, get out of wherever you are and find a shelter because there's bombs coming. And I'd say 90% of the time, you'd never hear an explosion because it would not fire off correctly or go over the base or go into a river. It would come nowhere close to us. But this time there actually was a couple that were hitting and were audible. So we were in there for a bit. And this one guy, I won't say his name because I said their the name to them, but I won't say the name on the internet. One guy was like, Lieutenant, I need to poop. And the lieutenant looked at him and said, That's not for me. I was sitting right next to it and he said, That's not for me. And so he goes to the first sergeant, goes up to the first sergeant, the NCO that actually makes decisions. He said, First sergeant, I gotta poop. First sergeant's like, What? I have to poop right now. I need to go. He's like, We're being bombed. What do you mean? He said, I'm gonna shit my pants. He's and the uh the first sergeant's right back to him, like, you're gonna shit your pants. And I roomed with this guy. So he retold the story all the time. He said, You're gonna shit your pants. I'm gonna shit my pants. And he apparently had said to him, because it didn't seem like he was making any headway, he said, I'm turtling right now. I'm turtling right now, which means the turret's just like, he said, I'm turtling right now. He said, You're willing to run out in an area that is actively being bombed so that you can go poop. He said, Yes. And then he did.

SPEAKER_02 36:20

Dang, man.

SPEAKER_01 36:21

Ran into the port of potty, three and a half minutes, right back in. That's crazy. So there are instructions and guidelines to follow, and everyone is urged to do so. What an urge. As the Kuwait army is pointing out. Do not run out if you need to poop while you're actively being bombed. That is discouraged. Now, let's go into the CBS Iran update article to where what's happening today. This is reported as of 8 27 a.m. this morning. Trump telling Fox News he quote unquote may keep going with strikes against Iran. President Trump said Wednesday that he's close to order Geez. That burp came out of nowhere. President Trump said Wednesday that he's close to ordering more strikes on Iran after the country's attacks is targeting American bases in the Persian Gulf Nations, according to Fox News Trey Yingst. Mr. Trump said he may keep going, which he said would target power plants and bridges because Iran negotiators are quote tapping the United States along, unquote. And I was actually watching a live of Trump. He's in the he was signing something, and they were doing questions, and he brought he he used that phrase as well: tapping the United States along. Um if my opinion's warranted in this geopolitical uh quagmire, it's that Iran's actually been pretty upfront with what they want. They want about a $24 billion mark of unfrozen assets to be utilized toward reparations of their infrastructure. They also want a tolling system set up in the Strait of Hormuz, called like a maritime tax, I think is what they're calling it, to also help rebuild up their infrastructure. And they want Lebanon to not get bombed. So tapping the United States along as we refuse to unfreeze assets that have been frozen since the 70s, not just Obama, since the late 70s. We refuse to allow them to do a toll, which by the way, I think is a stupid idea anyway. I I don't think it would work. I don't think companies would do it or want to, uh, and it would increase oil prices than proxy. I don't think that ends up happening, but they they've been pretty firm at the very least of what they want. I wouldn't quote unquote state we've been tapped along. I would say more so we walked into this trying to be the bully at the negotiating table, and they say, Yeah, okay. And they just walk away. And then we bring them back to the table and they're like, You're gonna do this, and they're like, Yeah, okay. It seems kind of more so what's going on here. And the fact is, we attacked and they retaliated. This has been the same game since the beginning of this. They'll attack, or there'll be some minor attack, then we'll bludgeon, they'll retaliate, and we'll say that retaliation was unwarranted. We're about to go more, we're about to get more aggressive. That was crazy. That's what's happening right here. They're saying we may attack bridges and infrastructure because uh you sent some drones out last night in retaliation. Well, we did. In retaliation to an Apache helicopter that went down for at this point unconfirmed circumstances. No deaths, no loss of equipment. I'm assuming. I'm assuming they didn't lose the Apache helicopters. Maybe I shouldn't make that assumption. Let's go back over to Twitter though to see what drop site news has to say about Iran's response to all of this. So this comes out this morning as well, and this is from Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Scroll all the way down real quick. The reason I'm reading the tweet and not the physical document is because I don't know how to read that. If you do, pause, go right ahead. For everybody else, I'm gonna read it for you. This is again from Dropsite News, extremely reputable. It says, in the early hours of Wednesday, June 10th, 1405, under the pretext of the downing of one of its army's Apache helicopters over the Strait of Hormuz, the American terrorist regime carried out savage attacks Monday night against several areas in the south of the country. Can I pause real quick? I should have a more visceral response to being labeled the American terrorist regime. But as somebody who has served in this army and seen what we do and researched what we've done and researched what we continue to do, I just don't have that visceral response to that anymore.

SPEAKER_02 40:41

It's funny you say that. I don't know, I guess it's odd. But like it doesn't surprise me. But also it's like, man. It just goes to say, like, everything every country is being told is different. Yes.

SPEAKER_01 40:58

And they're being propagandized too. Yeah, like every this is wartime propaganda.

SPEAKER_02 41:02

Every time, yeah, every single place is is propaganda.

SPEAKER_01 41:06

Iran is definitely playing the role, especially in statements like this, of the distinguished gentlemen at the negotiating table.

SPEAKER_02 41:13

And we're doing the same thing.

SPEAKER_01 41:14

Which, yeah, well, I wouldn't say we're playing distinguished gentlemen.

SPEAKER_02 41:17

Yeah, you look at them truth.

SPEAKER_01 41:18

Yeah, we're we're we're looking, yeah. It's like they're Iran's playing distinguished gentlemen. Are they letting on a bit that they're that they're the the respectable ones here? Maybe 100%, probably a little bit. But then on the other side, we're playing the detestable bully that doesn't really have anything to back ourselves either. So I see where we're at this juxtaposition. Regardless, back into the statement. I just don't feel I just don't feel it anymore when people call us a terrorist regime. I don't feel it anymore. It's like I read it and I'm like, yeah, and then it's like, okay, yeah, I get it. I get it, I get it. Like when people say it, I get it. I don't like it. Do I want to live in a country that's labeled a terrorist regime? No. Do I think everyone in America is a terrorist? No. Same reason I don't think everyone in Iran's a terrorist. Are there terrorists within America? Yeah, probably. And I think they exist in the White House. I just don't think they're running around with suicide vests, because that's what we have been propagandized to think is a terrorist, not the people stealing billions of dollars from you. These people, terror, this normal banking. Back into the statement. Quote, these attacks are a flagrant violation of the United States Charter or United Nations Charter. My apologies. Particularly Article 2, paragraph 4, and the fundamental principle prohibiting the use of force in international relations. With these aggressive actions, the ruling American establishment has once again demonstrated its criminal and war-mongering nature. In response to the United States military aggression against Iran and the blatant violation of our country's national sovereignty and territorial integrity, the powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran exercising their legitimate right to self-defense struck hard the American bases and assets in the region that were the source of these aggressions. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, while strongly condemning the American crime of military aggression against Iran, once again reminds all countries of the region, particularly those located on the south shores of the Persian Gulf, of their legal and ethical responsibilities to prevent the U.S. terrorist army and the Zionist regime from using their territory and facilities to plan, organize, execute, and support aggressive actions against Iran. Again, now we're called Zionist supporting, and it's like, yeah. Yeah. It's like shit. Like, I'm not a Iran apologist. Like, I never have been. I'm not getting money from them, but if that at this point, if they need an American reporter to report on some things going on, like send me a couple bucks. Like, I I do st I do find myself. Leaning more toward the way they're speaking about this war. Because they're they're labeling, they've said it before, we're going after the Epstein class. We're fighting the Zionists. We're fighting the corruption that exists within the criminals of the United States. I'm like, shit. I cover the criminals of the United States, Zionism and all the. So I'm like, we kind of align in that sense. But at the same time, could that be really good PR on their part? That they're reading the room really well and they know, hey, if we say that we're this, that, and the third, the Americans might start to be on our side. I don't know. Could be could be a little mixture. We're we're trying to see through the noise. Starting again, quote, it warns that the Islamic Republic of Iran will not hesitate to exercise its inherent right to self-defense, including by targeting the source of attacks as well as the bases and logistical facilities used to carry out and support aggression operations against Iran. See, that's war. I get that. You use this facility to send these attacks, we're gonna attack the things that were used to send the attacks. We're responding by saying we're gonna attack bridges. That's different. That's different. You might say, like, well, we have the capabilities of doing so. If Iran had the ability to take out the Golden Gate Bridge, they'd do it tomorrow. Maybe, but they don't. Maybe, but they don't. Maybe, but they don't. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran also once again reminds the United Nations of its responsibility, particularly the Security Council and the Secretary General, to safeguard international peace and security and to hold the aggressor parties accountable. Sean, what do you think about that statement?

SPEAKER_02 45:40

Honestly, I fully 100% agree.

SPEAKER_01 45:43

It's like Iranian, I knew it. That's me. Iranian!

SPEAKER_02 45:47

He's an apologist. I'm an Ashaunian. But I'm an Ashaun. I look at that and I'm like, yeah, what the hell is our uh why can I think right now? What does our United Nations do? Because you tried not to say fuck. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I need to stop cussing. Um, it's just like I feel like all this stuff is happening, even in the White House right now, like blatantly illegal things that have to be violating something, and nothing's doing it, doing anything. Nobody's doing anything.

SPEAKER_01 46:21

Like blatantly, I think you said blind, blatantly.

SPEAKER_02 46:22

Blindly, blatantly, yeah. Blah blah blah blah blah. Words are hard.

SPEAKER_01 46:26

Word hard.

SPEAKER_02 46:27

Um, but it's just like things are happening and nothing's happening. Yeah, right? Like, and it's it seems to always be that way.

SPEAKER_01 46:33

Like everybody's always always been that way, right? Right, right, right, right. Yeah, that's the point. That's the point.

SPEAKER_02 46:38

So that's a big I definitely like them, like, yeah. That that's the big point.

SPEAKER_01 46:42

It's always been this way. And since we instituted this whole regime change effort in Iran itself, we we came in and said we're instituting our own leader. Like we've been doing this since the 70s in Iran. That's why they chant death to America. We've killed millions of their people. I think it's worth a little bit of pulling back the graph and not just focusing on just this week, just this month. There's a lot of history that I don't even know about. And me too. I'm not from there. Yeah. I'm not, I'm not some historian of Middle Eastern geopolitics. I'm not. But within a few months worth of research and some books and a few articles, and you know, maybe a college lecture or two, you can get a good idea of this is not some just spark in a bottle that just happened now. This has been a long-term boot on their neck economically and in terms of their own ability to defend themselves since the 70s. And maybe it's gone back further. Maybe, maybe I'm short dating the timeline. But the fact is, when I hear them saying they're pushing against the Zionist regime, they're pushing against the White House criminals, they're they're pushing against all of this Epstein class thing, I'm like, damn, that's exactly who I'm pushing up against. Is that just well-orchestrated propaganda to get them to view us as or view them as the good guys? Maybe. But is there also a level to this where we can look at objectively, not as Americans, because we're all born in America? If you weren't born in America, you'd listen to shout out in the comments where are you from? Uh, not nationalistic here, would love to hear where you're from. Thinking of Greece myself. The the problem is when you when you know the history of how we've treated these countries that simply want to state their own independence in a lot of cases, and we swindle in and stifle those efforts because that independence would lead to them creating their own economic structures uh separate from the petrol dollar and other central banking efforts that are required by all the countries that participate for the American infrastructure to remain intact. I think that there's a lot of keeping America intact in the way that we demonize these Middle Eastern countries. I think there's a lot of that. We're trying to keep our power, our brand, our PR moving. And part of that includes the PR of associating everybody over there as being a bunch of cave-dwelling mud people. And now the cave-dwelling mud people have built a nuclear bomb, and you should be afraid of that. How we get went from cave-dwelling mud people to now they own a nuclear facility and they have the ability to shoot a nuclear bomb, and by the way, they have one, is a really large jump because I don't even know how Bluetooth works, but that's a really large jump. I think that there are people there that want nothing to do with war, that want nothing to do with terror, that want nothing to do with Zionism or the Epstein clashes regime. And I would agree with those people. I would say that if there's Iranians out there to believe that, we're on the same damn page. And I hate watching bombs fly at the expense of political discourse. Just politicians wanting to instill their will, wanting to bring their their power dynamic into this little vacuum of time in their four to eight years as president or whatever, to say that we're gonna take back Iran. We're gonna, we're gonna settle them down. They've been going too crazy for too long. No other president stepped up and done this. I'm gonna do it. I think it's there's a lot of just BS at this moment. I think the war is stupid. I think the quagmire win we're in is very real. We can't just exit this. Is that your favorite word today? Quagmire? Yes, that's the third time I've seen quagmire.

SPEAKER_02 50:27

What are you what are you talking about? You are the family guy?

SPEAKER_01 50:30

Family guy, maybe, maybe. You're saying what's a family guy in a long time.

SPEAKER_02 50:33

What a quagmire.

SPEAKER_01 50:34

Is that actually like Yeah, it's like you you're stuck. I thought it was just Quagmire from I think it's kind of akin to like a catch 22. You're stuck. What moves can you make out of this to really get out? And that's where I think America is where we're at. Is what move can we make? Present to me some theories. Any theory that's laid out doesn't seem to line up with us achieving our goals or not hurting ourselves in doing so, if that makes sense. Yeah, Quagmar's a word. All right, cool. It's not just the name of a family guy character, I promise. Alright, so all that to be said, we just read that statement by Iranian defense minister. Let's look at what Donald Trump said this morning in response to those attacks. Slightly shorter. I don't know if there's a word cap on truths. There's definitely actually not. There's definitely not a truth social cap because I've seen some truths that are insanely long. Donald Trump said, at the same minute, this was the same minute as the other one? Jesus Christ, you got these things scheduled? This one before that. This is at the same minute. Okay, so at the same minute, he's saying Iran's military is a complete mess. Oh, wait, this is the same tweet.

SPEAKER_02 51:47

Yeah, the same one.

SPEAKER_01 51:48

It's the same tweet. I pulled up the wrong one. Alright. So let's just read it once more. This is uh we read it already. Iran's military is a complete and total mess. Much of it, like their Navy and Air Force, doesn't even exist anymore. They've completely been defeated. Iran is all talk and no action. The bully of the Middle East is dead. They've taken too long to make a deal that would have been great for them, and now they will have to pay the price. Someone's got to get with the coders of Truth Social because it's not behaving well. Someone's got to get with the UI developer of Truth Social. So here's what I want to cut this section off with, and then we're gonna go into the three big warnings. All that, and we haven't even gotten to the three big warnings. Jeesh. Okay. Inflation is here. It's we've been projecting it since the beginning of this war. We were projecting even before the beginning of this war. Inflation's not going away. And now we're in the four percents. We could stay there elevating these four percents for maybe a couple months. Because a lot of the products and services, the goods that are because let me slow down. Think about the pricing for a banana. Okay, think about the pricing of a banana. The price of a banana does not change like the price of a stock. Okay, price of a stock moves consistently and constantly through millions of trades and speculation and buying and selling of contracts. Okay, banana doesn't have contracts. You can't short banana. To my knowledge, you might actually be able to short the banana market. Do banana futures exist? Can you Google banana futures? Can I invest in the future market of bananas? No, no, no. Banana futures. I just need banana futures. Ba-da-ba! Grow global price of Oh, that's just global price. Okay, that's not futures. No. Banana USD futures let you trade perpetual contracts without owning ApeSwap. Well, that's some weird crypto stuff. Okay, it does not look like you can trade bananas. Okay, good. I was really worried we were gonna see banana futures exist. If they do and we missed them, please comment below where I can invest in the global banana trade. So back to the subject. Think about bananas, right? Nothing's inherently moving that price up or down except supply and demand. And it takes a while for the price of the banana to be felt by the consumer when the price of bringing that banana to the stand is being affected. So when the cost of importing the banana, when the cost of planting the banana in the ground, when the cost of the labor to pick the banana, store the banana, ship, export, put the sticker on them, what all of that is more expensive. So eventually the banana will be in higher cost. But let me ask you, is that instant? No. So what I'd say to you is when you look at this inflation data and you see that the great majority of the inflation is coming from fuel, what that signals to me is the bananas next. That signals to me that's one of the ripples that exist that will make the banana more expensive. And that banana being more expensive in the future, because of the current more expensive fuel fertilizer, things like that. I know you don't need urea fertilizer to plant banana trees. At least I'm I'm pretty confident you don't. The costs are gonna go up. Simply because the costs of producing the good have gone up. And it eventually will hit the banana. It has not yet. It has not yet. So what I see is perpetual inflation moving forward, at the very least, over the next course of uh how many months we got left? Six. Dare I say six or seven months?

SPEAKER_03 55:34

People still doing that? I don't know.

SPEAKER_01 55:39

Hold assets. If you have an asset, do not panic sell it. Even if the market were to crash, even if the market, do not sell. Buy more if you could. Buy more if you could. If you're like, Zach, tell me when it's gonna crash so I can get out and then buy when it's low. I can't do that. I'm sorry. I don't know how to do that. I don't know how to do that. I can't just tell you it's gonna crash on July 13th at 2.06 p.m. because this bank went solvent. It's the bank, it's the bus you don't see coming that kills you. I I don't know what's gonna pull the string on the system or when it's gonna happen. It could be next week. It could be next month, it could be in seven years. I don't know. All I'm saying is own an asset. Okay? And if you can't own an asset, we did a whole other podcast talking about how to survive a wartime economy. And we talk to everybody from those that are struggling to pay rent versus what they're putting in their grocery cart to those that are just looking to allocate their assets properly to experience investment growth. So you can go check out that video. Let's finish with our three big warnings, and then I gotta go find a dog. Let's finish with our three big warnings. The first comes out of the Citigroup. Citigroup's commodity research team cut its gold price target from for the next three months to 4,000 per ounce from the once reported 4,300 per ounce. This has made waves, especially on the X platforms. The gold is crashing. We need to get out of gold. Gold is falling apart. We're gonna come back to this at the end, but let's read a little bit what he says. He says we're seeing limited catalysts for a sustained move higher in the very near term, quote unquote. City pointed to a combination of factors including stabilizing real yields, a shorter-term dollar bias, and a weakening safe haven premiums amid easing geopolitical tensions. The analysts who have also noted that physical gold demand from central banks and ETF inflows have moderated, taking some steam out of the rally. Quote, near-term upside looks capped unless we see a fresh shock. Unquote. So I wanted to bring this up because there's a lot of people that actually DM'd me this article saying, Zach, is it gonna crash? Is it gonna fall? Is do I need to get out of gold? No. I don't think you should get out of silver either. In fact, if we were to read this article through the words it's using, everything is talking about short term. It's talking about one to three months. I don't give a shit what gold does in the next three months. I don't care at all. It could go to zero. I don't want that. I don't want it to go to zero. I go to like ten bucks. It's gonna go back up. I'm I'm I love the the lack of volatility that comes with precious metals. Now, have the last year and a half shown that? No, they have not, but the historical non-volatility I love. This article also goes on to say that silver will probably outperform gold next year. Based off the utilization of silver, uh, there's more opportunities to use silver than to use gold. Oh, here's the quote: our longstanding call for silver to outperform and for the precious metals bull market to broaden into industrial metals and for industrial metals to take center stage over the same periods has worked well. Yeah, I would agree with this part. So we're coming back, we'll come back to this because I have a beef to pick with this guy. We're gonna go to the next warning. So that's the first warning. Gold's gonna collapse. Second warning: the Bank of America warns investors to take profits as 70% of the bank's bear market signals flash red. Now, by the way, this is a great headline because when I saw 70%, I was like, holy shit, how many bear Sean, how many bear market indicators do you think there are? How many sit how many different little red flag, like if this gets to this temperature, send up the flag? If this gets up to this price, send up the flag. How many red flag indicators are there? 70% are stating a bear market, which means things fall. I looked it up. You know how many there are? How many? Ten.

SPEAKER_02 59:52

Oh.

SPEAKER_01 59:53

It's just ten.

SPEAKER_02 59:54

Okay.

SPEAKER_01 59:55

There's only ten. And seven of them are reading red right now. So I don't know. When I when I when I read this article initially, uh, I think this came out two days ago. Initially I was like, oh shit, that's crazy. That a bank would tell people, yo, it might be time to cash in on your profits. That's a wild thing for not just a bank, the Bank of America. Great branding, because they're not actually like the American bank, but Bank of America is saying, whoa, we might think it's profit time. That's terrifying. Then when I learned there's only 10 signals, at first I was like, oh, that's that's extra crazy. 70% 10. That means they're seventh. Wow. But then a part of me also is like, man, I really wish there were more indicators. You guys are Bank of America. You don't you don't have hundreds of these things? You don't have a lot of historical data backed up to know when when bond yields reach this and in in comparison to when the one year's doing that, or when credit yields are hitting here, or when credit reaches this point, but our GDP is at that point. And like you can pull all the little tethers together. I'm sure you can find correlation. Uh, a lot has to center around where's consumer spending? Are people paying on their debts? And is the American life affordable? But it does not get into in this article, by the way, what the indicators are. But again, I I'm gonna go on the same exact branch I'm about to take you on with the with the first, is that this is a very short-lived thing. Let's actually read that second paragraph and let me prove this to you. So, seven of the 10 uh banks' 10 bear market indicators have been triggered in recent months. Strategist led by Savita Sub Submarine wrote in a recent client note, five were triggered by April and two more of those indicators flashed red in May. So you're telling me all seven went red in 45 days? It went from zero to seven. Oh, is he dog? I'm how does this picture not load for me when I last read this article? Sean, you just made me look like an idiot. Great job. Great job.

SPEAKER_02 1:02:08

Sorry.

SPEAKER_01 1:02:08

No, it's stock market conditions trigger seven out of ten bear market signals. Uh, they have a stock price expectation indicator that triggered in May. Long-term growth expectation triggered. No, see, but this again is not really telling me what they're basing it off of. I need the formulas. You can't just tell me cheap versus expensive stocks. What does that mean? Credit stress indicator. Okay. But like what are you measuring? Are you measuring credit stress across all fields? Is it just automotive? Are you including student loans? Are you uh is it variented based off age, seeing as younger people don't have as much assets or income or anything like that? I I need details, and maybe those details don't exist. But um, the one thing I will say is stock price expectations indicator finally being hit. Um, duh. Stock price have been well above their expectations for years. And for proof, nobody thought the stock market was gonna double in six years. Nobody thought that. Nobody thought the stock market would hit six seventy six hundred in 2026. Nobody expected that. So I would say that that's probably something that should have been checked way before April. But again, I don't really have much to go off of here. They're not giving us all the details. I would say yet again, just like the gold one, I'm gonna rip off and duplicate. Short-sighted. I would say short-sighted. And I mean short-sighted in the way that I mean that if you are investing for the future, if you're investing for the next 10, 20, 30 years, if it does, it does. All I'm gonna say to you are the same exact things. Make sure you're holding assets or seeking assets, make sure you have a job that can survive an AI automated economy, and make sure that you're focusing on you first. All of this financial stuff is secondary to you focusing on you, your brain, your body, your spirit, going to the gym, reading a book, getting out of the doom scrolling. All of those three things apply right now, and all those three things would apply if there was a crash. And if there was a crash, honestly, the wealth is going to drain more from the working class. So if you're cheering it on, I don't know what you're cheering on, to be frank. Let's get to our third warning. And the third warning that I will say carries a lot more long-term weight. Okay, so we're we talked about short-term gold, talked about short-term economy, and I say short-term because again, all of those triggers fired within the last 45 or so days, or within a 45-day period, I should say. Um that reads to me as a short-term effect. It doesn't read to me that they've been tracking this for eight years, and when it happens, it's gonna be really bad and it's gonna be for a long time. Oil, on the other hand, something we've talked about. Here's Exxon CEO who's stating something is happening beneath the calm surface of oil futures, and that ExxonMobil has been watching in real time. The company finally said out loud what it means for prices and for the economy. Let's scroll down. So it says oil futures spent, we're gonna have to skip through a bunch of ads in between all of this reading. Oil futures spent much of the spring moving sideways while something very different was happening in the physical market, inventories were disappearing. Okay, pause. Supply and demand. When the demand stays the same, and the supply goes drastically down, what happens to the price? If there are ten people that normally every day consume one banana, and there are ten bananas that exist every day for these ten people to be able to purchase, give it whatever price you want on the banana. Thirty cents, thirty dollars, doesn't matter. None of this is real. Ten people ten bananas. What happens to the price? Price of the banana, or we can just substitute price for value. What's the value of the banana if there are less bananas? If we go from 10 bananas to three bananas, but we still have 10 people that want the bananas, what happens to the value of the banana? Banana value go up. When less banana available to the same people, banana value go up. So what this is saying is oil future spent so much of its springtime moving sideways while something very different was happening in the physical markets. Inventories were disappearing. Supply of bananas was disappearing. But imagine these bananas power your car and build everything, pretty much. Strategic reserves were being spent. Let's scroll down. Tankers that had been at sea when Iran war began were arriving and emptying out without anywhere else to go. The buffers that had kept prices from spiking were being consumed one by one. The woman below that text looks like she wants to hurt me. ExxonMobil has been watching those buffers drain in real time, and its two most senior voices have now said publicly what that means for prices and where we are heading. Speaking at ExxonMobil's first quarter 2026 earnings call, CEO Darren Woods told Wall Street analysts that the markets have not yet absorbed the full impact of the Iran War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Quote, there was a lot of oil in transit on the water, a lot of inventory on the water that has been deployed in the first month of this conflict. Strategic petroleum reserves have been released. Commercial inventories have been drawn down. What he's saying is oil's not an instant good service commodity like some things. It's not instant. So when this Iran war began, there was already oil that had been purchased and was transiting back to wherever it was going with oil that was priced in the pre-war oil. Then they get where they're going, they drop it off, and then where do they go? This is what he's talking about. Woods was clear about what happens next. Once one of those supply sources become exhausted, oil prices will increase as long as the strait remains closed. Let's scroll down just a little bit, a little bit, a little bit. It gets into some more quotes. He says, we are approaching unheard of inventory levels. He says this in quotes. I mean really, really low levels. You can debate whether that's going to hit those really low levels in two or three weeks. And once you get to that point, you'll see the price shoot up. A model would say Brent will shoot up to about $150 to $160 a barrel. The models would tell you that. Can we pull up the Brent crude? So we're sitting at $94.311, 94.311. So he's saying that based off of the current inventory of oil, that within the next two to three weeks, and by the way, that article was written on Monday. I think it's worth dating. So we're two days into that two to three week prediction. That models are already stating at Exxon that prices per barrel of crude oil, which is what the world, about two-thirds of the world, is pricing their oil in another third or so prices in WTI, which is based out of West Texas, slightly lower right now. That crude oil now sitting at $94, and at one point peaked to what $115? Can we see where it peaked? What was that peak? $113. Peaked $113 on May 3rd, it looks like. That we're going to surpass that high and we're going to go up to $150 to $160 per barrel. Now you may ask, how's that happening? If we're already running out of oil, speaking globally, we're already running low on oil. We already got Southeast uh Southeast Asia countries struggling heavy. China and Russia stepping in to supply them oil. We already have Australia struggling heavy. We already have other areas and Latin America struggling heavy. And now we see American inventory is close to depleting. Close to depleted. Why is oil cheaper than at the peaks of the war? Why is it when the war began, just three two weeks in, it was peaking above 110? Would be above 110 three, four, five, six, seven days out of this war. I've said six, seven, three different times on this podcast. Quote me. Why is it trading at 94? Well, because of the propaganda. Guys, two episodes we talked about a story that broke out of the Palestinian, or not Palestinian, um, Pakistani negotiating table, where Iranians were told to not focus on the tweets coming out of our administration. Why? They were quote unquote domestic media. What does that mean? What does that mean? Domestic media. It means we're trying to keep things under control, like oil. Because oil can move dramatically. It can move dramatically, specifically when we're talking about futures, which is what we're looking at. And so when we're looking at oil, you have to understand it's not purely supply and demand. There's so many factors. In fact, I don't want to sit here and put it in a put it in a box and act like it's this simple. It's extremely complex. Every country is utilizing it, has for multiple, multiple, multiple decades. Lots. But one thing we can clearly see right here is we see this jump that happened from February 28th to the next coming weeks. Okay, February 28th, it goes up. Now, let me ask you was the supply and demand of oil at that exact moment skewed to the point where prices would go up, uh we'd be at like 50, 60 something now up to then we'll go to 112. There you go. So from 60 to 112, nearly doubled, nearly doubled in two weeks. When the war began, answer me this, back to the bananas. Were the bananas immediately unavailable? Was the oil immediately unavailable to the point where the price had to shoot up? No. The price moved on sentiment. What was the sentiment at that time? Oh, 20% of the world's oil supply is now being held hostage. Oh, we might be going to a war. Oh, that war has a peace deal. Oh peace deal, good. Peace deal means oil comes down. Why? Because when the peace deal goes into place, we're assuming the strait would be opened, the blockades would be gone, and all of a sudden oil can move again. Oil moves off vibes. Again, I don't want to put into a box. I don't want to put into a box. But the reason oil is trading at 94 and the stock market is outperforming its pre-war self is vibes. Stock market, inflation, weakness of the dollar, decent job reports people are trading off of SpaceX IPOs. Jeez, we should do a whole episode on that. Yes, lots factoring in. But for oil, they're basically betting that the war is closer to being done than it has from when it started. We're closer to the end than we are from the beginning. And because of that, my oil future contracts are going to go up or down in value. And that's where oil gets its volatility. Not just pure supply and demand, but off of speculation from investors buying and selling contracts on what they think the future of oil prices will be. And though $30 higher than when we originally began, ExxonMobil CEO and other CEOs, by the way, I think it was Texaco, $150 to $160 a barrel. That's $45 higher than we've seen even at the peak of this war. And why? It's because vibes are going to be taken off the table soon. Tankers are empty. The tankers that are coming to America are draining our reserves. And they're draining our reserves all the time where gas prices and oil prices obviously are going up because 20% has been shut off. I think this lines up pretty well this morning, actually. Uh, how long? Probably not for forever, because uh capitalism and these markets have a way of moving of when, of course, oil, let's say if it were to hit $150, $160, you're gonna flatline corporations. There is gonna be certain businesses that just simply cannot operate at those given price points. And that does give a lot of speculation opportunity for what will AI and automation do in that in that gap. But I digress. There is going to be a lot of companies that cannot support themselves. There's gonna be a lot of people that cannot drive, because in that case, I mean, we're really talking like $550, $6 gallon of gas be a median, be a normal in that type of scenario. It could be higher, honestly. I don't know. Um the costs are finally going to hit the fan. Supply and demand is what this ExxonMobil CEO is saying, is finally going to come back to the market. That our low supply, our low amount of bananas, whilst everyone still needs the oil. Everyone still needs the bananas. Nothing has changed about the demand. That is gonna force the price higher. And that forces prices higher on goods, transport, anything industrial, and everything is going to be affected goods and service-wise. And we'll see it in the BLS reports, probably in five, six months. Maybe sooner. August and September, food prices will definitely be higher. August, September, food prices will definitely be higher, and they're not gonna come down. Prices don't come down. They never have historically, so I'm not gonna sit here and say they will. And those are the three big warnings. I would I would heed the first two as more short-term warnings, and the last is more of a long-term. Um, but at the end of the day, inflation is being caused. Trump said he was gonna kill it. It's not been killed. And to be honest, I I've I've watched so many lives of Donald Trump talking, so many lives of Jerome Powell talking, of Howard Lutnick talking, of uh Scott Bissent talking, of Mike Johnson talking, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And guess what? I'm just really tired of the talking points. I'm really tired of hearing Rick Rubio hit the same exact talking points, and it's really getting old. I can't freaking wait for these prices to adjust. I will be the happiest man to watch these oil prices hit 150, if not just for a gleaming moment, because I understand what that means for the worldwide economy. I get that. I don't want you paying six dollars. I don't want to pay six dollars for gas. I just won't drive. What the heck? I can't wait for reality to set into these markets because it would hurt the stock market short term. It would hurt companies, maybe in the long term, and depending on how long it stays elevated, it's gonna force some major economic shifts to happen. I I just can't wait for companies that are benefiting off of your backs while they're charging obnoxious rates for gas while still profiting at heavy amounts because the oil itself is just simply more expensive. They can sell it for more. I hate to watch oil executives profit off of your pain. And if it were expensive enough that people can't utilize it as freely, well then the demand drops, and now oil can maybe return back to normal prices over time. How long? It wouldn't be quick. It wouldn't be 2026. It wouldn't be 2026. Just to be clear. So I'm gonna go back to what you can do. You can hold assets.

SPEAKER_03 1:18:20

A.

SPEAKER_01 1:18:22

B. You can have a job that's recession proof. And what do I mean by recession proof? I mean when your company has to look their numbers in the eye and decide whether or not your position or multiple positions could be better utilized as AI, automation, or robotics. You need you need to just look. You need to just think about it a little bit. Just think about it just a little bit. Think about it, think about it ever so slightly, your career path. And number three is take care of you. Your brain, your body, your spirit. I want you taking care of yourself. I want you to go on a walk. I want you to love on your people. I'm about to go out with the people that I love, searching for another thing that I love, our family dog. Uh now I'm getting sad thinking about it. I've been trying to put a compartmentalize it this whole time so we can get through this. But I love you guys so much. I got to get on my mission. Your mission today, if you don't own an asset, do not panic sell if you do. But if you don't own an asset, get your plan down on how you could accumulate even a $1 stock to hold for the next 20 years. And that one dollar is gonna be the first dollar you invest that could grow and be beautiful, or maybe it all collapses and it's just Mad Max and we're just fighting for oil. I don't know. All this is crazy. But at the end of the day, you can only control you. And I love you, and I'm gonna land the plane there because I'll just keep going. Sean, what are your thoughts on today's episode?

SPEAKER_02 1:19:41

Man, that's a lot.

SPEAKER_01 1:19:43

I didn't even know where to land the plane because I felt like there's still so many untied loops.

SPEAKER_02 1:19:47

Yeah, there's a lot going on, man. Um, honestly, man, I would say if I had any advice, read a book. Yeah, I think that's I'll I'll leave I'll I'll say that. Just find a good book to read, doesn't matter if it's fiction or nonfiction. Find something good.

SPEAKER_01 1:19:59

Especially those that are calling for revolt, by the way. Especially those that are tired of the bullshit and are ready to light up torches. You are of no use to the unity if you yourself aren't strong. Your brain, your body, your spirit, you are of no use to the people to your left and to your right if you yourself are not prepared for mental, physical, spiritual battle. And that dang me, I don't know. I don't fucking know anything. I'm not starting nothing. But if you're one of those, it applies to you even more. Family man, family woman applies to you even more. If you want to grow and be something in this life, start by disconnecting. Even this podcast, by the way, this could be the last podcast of mine that you listen to. And I'd congratulate you for it if you stopped everything and disconnected, grew yourself, grew on the people around you, discovered more of who you were, got into books, got into meditating, got more into the gym, got into better eating, got into better sleep, all the different things you can do. Go ground outside, get some sunlight in the early morning. I'd love that for you. Get rid of the apps, never listen to me again, and disconnect and grow. I'd love that for you, to be quite honest. So, with all this going on, it's a lot of information. Inflation is real, Iran's not done yet, and there's some warnings from some pretty high level people about the economy. So we may be on shaky grounds. Let's play the song.

unknown 1:21:17

There it is.

SPEAKER_01 1:21:25

Go find your dog. Get out of here. I got a dog.