U.S. has a deal with Iran? | ZFS 79

This is the eighth time a specific set of steps toward a ceasefire has been put in front of us. The 27th time we have declared victory. The 38th time we have declared a peace agreement is right around the corner. So let me walk you through what is actually on the table, what Iran actually wants, and why I do not think this deal happens.

I break down the full timeline of this week. The Apache helicopter that went down in the Strait of Hormuz. The four regions we struck in southern Iran and northern Tehran. The Iranian drone responses into Kuwait and Jordan. The planned attack on Qeshm Island that got pulled back. And the Thursday evening announcement that a deal had been reached, which Iranian media immediately contradicted.

I also walk through the 14 point deal that Iran has released publicly. The $24 billion in frozen assets. The $300 billion reconstruction fund. The full withdrawal of US forces from the region. The reopening of the Strait within 30 days. And the one thing America gets to call a win, Iran reiterating its commitment under the NPT not to build nuclear weapons.

Here is my honest take. That is not a win for America. And more importantly this deal cannot happen for the same reason this war started in the first place. Israel is still bombing Lebanon. 3,711 people dead since March 2nd. Trump told Bibi to stop. Bibi launched Operation Arrows of Fire instead. Iran has made peace for Lebanon a non negotiable. Israel has made peace in Lebanon impossible. That is the wall this deal keeps running into.

Transcript

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Do we have a deal in Iran? Since February 28th, Iran and America have been in a deadlock centered around the Strait of Hormuz, responsible for a fifth of the world's oil supply, as well as more than 40% of its supply of urea, which is a fertilizer, by the way. Now, this is the eighth time we've had a specific set of steps towards a ceasefire agreement put in front of us. This is also the 27th time we've declared victory, and the 38th time we've declared that there is a peace agreement that is nigh. It's right around the corner. So, can we take this agreement that's on the table seriously? Is there more nuance we can look at? Are there patterns from the past that we can see to give us a better idea of what's actually happening right now? To better understand that, here's what we're gonna do in this video: three things. We're gonna talk about the timeline leading up to today. What are the details of the prospective deal? And what are the optics and what happens next if this deal were to go through? So let's start off by talking about the timeline. Since the beginning of this week, there has been firing going on in the Strait of Hormuz, started with an Apache helicopter that went down, landed in the Strait of Hormuz, and were rescued by an autonomous drone, which is crazy. A day after those Apache helicopters would go down, America would respond by striking four different regions within southern Iran as well as in northern Tehran on the following Tuesday. That evening, Iran would respond by sending autonomous drone attacks toward Kuwait and Jordan. Here's a tweet from the Kuwaiti army officials stating they had attacks that night in Kuwait. So the timeline leading up to just Tuesday was attacks had begun to ring out once again. Now it was in America's hands. What were we going to do in response to the Iranian response? Well, there was a report out, and Donald Trump corroborated such reports that there was an attack planned to take over Karg Island. And Karg Island is extremely important to the Iranians because that is where a large proportion of their oil exporting sources out. And then late on Thursday evening, there came reports that that attack was being pushed off. It's not going to happen. And why? Is because we have a deal. We have a finalized agreement with the leadership of Iran, and this war is over. The strait is going to open. But is that true? At 6 45 p.m. Thursday evening Eastern time, American media was pushing that President Trump reveals Iran's supreme leader, Mustaba Khamini, which I mispronounced more than likely, has approved his deal, including no nukes. Around the same time, BRICS News, an international media platform, says Iran is not finalizing this agreement yet, saying, quote, the agreement with the United States is not final yet. And Iranian media, the Iranian letter specifically on Twitter, in or around the same time frame, states, Iran's foreign ministry says no agreement with the United States has been finalized, rejecting President Trump's claim that all Iranian leaders have approved a deal. And this should come as no surprise that the Iranian media is countering what the American media is saying, because quite honestly, that's what's happened for the past two and a half months. Pretty consistently. And as of just an hour ago before shooting this at 9 a.m. Eastern on Friday morning, June 12th, Iranian media has also confirmed via other sources that this deal is not finalized, and Donald Trump is speaking ahead of schedule in terms of where the negotiations truly are. Apparently, there is a deal, and there are details we can even read over as Iran has released the details of this potential 14-point deal. Let's get into part two of this video. What are the details? Reported by multiple sources at this point, the deal would look like this: a permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon. The commitment of non-interference in Iran's internal affairs in respect for the MIC Republic of Iran. Complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days. The U.S. commitment to withdraw its forces from around Iran. Reopening the strait within 30 days under Iranian arrangements. Suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products, and full access of Iran to its financial resources. The necessity for the U.S. and its allies to represent reconstruction plans for Iran amounting to at least $300 billion. Reiteration of Iran's committee under the MPT treaty not to produce nuclear weapons. During the negotiation period, the US has committed not to add forces in the region and not to impose new sanction. Release of $24 billion of Iran's blocked funds during this negotiation period. These are these frozen assets that have been talked about, with half of this amount being made available to Iran before the start of the negotiations. That would be 12 billion. And of course, oil markets would respond to this news as they have in the past, collapsing from the mid-90s to the mid-80s within a 48-hour period. Now I went ahead and took the oil graph and highlighted in yellow. Each and every time we've seen an announcement happen around either peace or a deal being nigh, and oil dropping in tandem. About six different times when it seemed most obvious to the media that a deal was nigh, oil would drop. But within about 48 to 72 hours, usually revealing that there wasn't actually as strong as a deal or any deal for that matter, and oil would respond by going back up. So we know the timeline, we have the details of what's happened over the course of this week, and we have kind of the full picture laid out in front of us. So what happens next? Is there a deal? Let's read a tweet that came out of DropSite News stating Al Jazeera correspondent Ali Hashem reports that no final decision has yet been made in Tehran, the capital of Iran, on the proposed memorandum of understanding with the United States. According to Hashem, the draft agreement has passed through most layers of Iran's decision-making process, but remains stalled at the highest levels, where final approval must be granted. He says a lengthy round of high-level meetings is now underway in Tehran, with the outcome still uncertain. So to understand what happens next, let's look into the past to see what we've already seen unfold. We've already seen multiple different times a deal get put on the table, or at least presented to United States media, and then Iranian media and Iranian leadership respond by saying there isn't a deal, or we aren't negotiating, or we're not really close on our terms. Another thing that we know historically is Iran has stuck to three main points in this agreement that mean the most to them. Number one is unfreezing of their assets. They want $24 billion in unfrozen assets that have been frozen by our country since the 70s. Now, America is not technically supposed to be doing anything with this sanctioned money. The money that is sanctioned from these other countries is kept in a non-interest bearing account, just being withheld from the market, keeping them economically sanctioned. They're trying to withhold growth from Iran by holding this money hostage. Iran wants that money back. Number two, they want reparations. Now it's been touted for a while that they want one of two things. They want a large amount of money, lump sum up front from America and its allies, and or they want to be able to gain the money they need for rebuilding their infrastructure through tolls or through creating a maritime service of transport through the Strait of Hormuz run by Iran. And number three, they want peace for not just themselves, but their allies, specifically Lebanon. Now, on April 18th, Donald Trump made a tweet, or should I say, a truth, about this, stating, we are done letting Israel strike Lebanon. Enough is enough, he said, quote unquote. Now, since that time frame, BB has actually upped the scale. BB Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, has launched what's known as Operation Arrows of Fire to up the ante, not cut back, up the ante on attacks on Lebanon. So, based off the main three things that we know that Iran wants, and we can see the timeline of US and Iran media being not on the same page, what can we draw from this? Well, for one, let's look at the deal being presented itself. Would it be a win? Would it be a loss for America if they were to take this deal? I think any sane person from any walk of life would look at this and say, this is a win for Iran. Not just because it does mention the $24 billion in Iran's blocked assets, those frozen assets being given back to them, half of it immediately. The necessity for the US and its allies to present reconstruction plans for $300 billion. That's that reparation money they want. So I guess this would be in lieu of a potential tolling system. So in this scenario, no tolling system. And the third, which I agree with, you know, uh personally, and you can have your own take, but Iran wants us to completely disband our forces from the Middle East. It says the U.S. commitment to withdraw its forces from around Iran. So all these bases that they're attacking in retaliation, they want them out of here completely. So when I read those three line items, seem quite severe in the direction of favoring Iran. I have to ask, where would America get a win out of this deal? How would they sell it? And the one way I think they'd sell it is the one point that says the reiteration of Iran's commitment under the MPT treaty not to produce nuclear weapons. So that could be the win that they sell in lieu of giving up billions of dollars in both frozen assets and new money to help rebuild the infrastructure of Iran, as well as surrendering our troops and retreating our from our bases. Just, you know, letting our bases just dilapidate or just completely tearing them down and leaving. No matter what way you draw that up, good, bad, and different, that is not a win, in my opinion, for America. But here's what I think happens next. I don't think this will be a deal. I really do not. And here's why. I think that we have a lot of pressure on America right now. We are running low on our oil reserves, dangerously low as we are now an exporter worldwide for oil. We're running out of reserves. So we are running up against a timeline of a potential spike in the price per barrel cost, ExxonMobil's VP saying $150 to $160 could be seen by mid to the end of June. So we can't see this go on a ton longer. But outside of having to sell the American people, especially the conservative demographic, on a win involving the retreating of troops, the resorting to unfreezing assets, and putting together money with our allies to the tune of $300 billion to give to the Iranian forces, all in exchange for no nukes and getting the straight back to where we were pre-war. Well, I have to say, I think the main reason out of all of these things that this deal doesn't happen is the same exact reason this war began in the first place. This war started because of Israel, and this war will continue to happen, in my opinion, because of Israel. Reporting from Drop Site News that came out at 7:39 a.m. this morning says Israel intensified its assault across Lebanon on Thursday, with at least 12 people reported killed and others wounded in a wave of airstrikes, drone attacks, and artillery fire across the South and the Becca Valley. An Israeli strike near Haram Hospital in Saur wounded 10 people, including a doctor, nurses, administrators, and staff members while damaging parts of the facility. The hospital does remain operational. Lebanon's health ministry says Israeli attacks have killed 3,711 people and wounded 11,483 since March 2nd, including 132 health care workers. It said 17 hospitals have been damaged and three forced to close because of attacks and threats. So here's the deal: the deal has three main points that Iran needs. They need unfrozen assets. That is a part of the deal, apparently. They need money to rebuild their infrastructure, either via tolls or a lump sum agreement. 300 bill is on the table. And number three is peace for itself and its allies, Lebanon, to be included. This was part of the reason the initial ceasefire that came in mid-April fell apart. And also, Trump has said multiple times, and apparently even on a phone call with Bibi to stop attacking Lebanon. But yet the attacks are still happening up until the shooting of this video. So I believe this deal has no ability to come to fruition simply because of that. Simply because of peace in Lebanon not being found, and Israel continuing to put the pedal to the metal on destroying and committing what seems to be another land expansion effort in Lebanon. Although America and the worldwide economy are facing very stark, very real and very short-term extreme problems within its economy, its fuel supply, its food, even its helium supply for semiconductors, a decision has to be made soon. A deal needs to come to the forefront that actually comes to fruition. And it will require unfrozen assets, reparations for infrastructure, and peace in Lebanon. Can all three of those things happen, though? Is the question. My answer for right now is no. This war with Iran has raged on well over 100 days now. And I do not believe that as I'm shooting this, this will be the last day of it.