U.S. & Iran After Action Report [MONOLOGUE] | ZFS 82

There is a deal on the table. The Strait of Hormuz has more traffic. Markets are moving. Crypto, gold, silver, and stocks all reacting the way they should for the first time in a while. And I want to be excited about it. I genuinely do. I just came back from the gym. I am wearing a SpongeBob outfit. I want to be pumped up.

But I cannot get past the terms. $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets unfrozen. $300 billion in US reconstruction aid. Full withdrawal of American forces from around Iran. Iran and Oman taking joint control of the Strait of Hormuz with a maritime services fee. And the one thing America gets to call a win is Iran reiterating a promise not to build nukes that they have already made before.

I also cannot get past the pickleball analogy that explains this entire war better than anything I have seen in a newspaper. You have a pickleball partner who keeps getting his kneecap destroyed right before your big tournaments. And you just found out that the guy playing in his place is the one who has been hitting him with the lead pipe all along. Just so he can keep playing. That is the situation.

I close with two things I am almost certain about regardless of how this deal plays out. A supply shock in oil is still coming because thousands of boats are stuck in the Persian Gulf and the Strait is still only moving a fraction of normal traffic. And food is going to get more expensive because 40% of the world's fertilizer supply came through that Strait and it has been choked off for over 100 days.

Plant a garden. Stack your savings. Cut the subscriptions. You know what to do.

Transcript

SPEAKER_03 0:00

What's going on? Good morning. Welcome to the Zach Fowl Show. Today's one of those days where we're just turning on the microphone. We're just we're just moving forward. I don't have a specific per se show for you today. There's a culmination of things. I I have a couple things I want to talk about. I do have a few sources pulled up. Uh we'd be remiss at this point if we didn't talk about what's going on in Iran. Seems like we have a deal. How should we feel about this? This is This has been something that's honestly been jostling around in my brain for the past few days. Um, just as an update, for the past two and a half months, what has been what has been at the top of my mind, seemingly from the outside looking in from your perspective in? What do you think's been one of the forefront topics that has been festering in my brain? It's been Iran. This war, the economic ripple effects that will down uh come downstream from this, the lies we've gotten to watch in real time, the wartime propaganda machine in full force on both sides. Okay, I'm not saying one side or the other, Iranian United States in in full swing from Lego videos to truth social posts, we're gonna eliminate your entire country, we're gonna stop them from getting a nuke and everything in between. And one thing that we can agree on, I believe, from this I'd say neutral perspective is seemingly no matter what party you affiliate with, blue, red, or homeless, you've watched as the bar for victory has been lowered and lowered. Okay, we've gone from this was this was a high jump effort. High jump effort at first. We were like, we are going to A flip this regime on its head. Regime change. We're the freedom fighters, world security guard, mall cop of the world. Shout out Paul Blart. We're gonna do what no one else can do, and no other president had the guts to do. All right, we're gonna we're gonna change this regime and flip it back on its head because there is some terrible stuff that happens in Iran. It's it's it's no rainbow and unicorn land that's getting lied to us that significantly about it. It has a lot more to do with Israel and oil. Overarchingly, there are some a lot of policies and freedoms that are worth considering as immoral. But what's also immoral is the dishonesty, the misleading, the warfare, the murder. That's been going on since February 28th from multiple fronts, not just even the United States. I think I speak for all of us when I say the bar for victory has dropped significantly as this war has gone on. And and and and I think this is something all of us can agree with. And if you can't agree with this, I would just I don't know, we'll have a conversation, but we want this war to be done. Nobody wants this to continue. Nobody wants to watch BB Netanyahoo control our government. I think we can all agree on that, right? We've all watched it unfold, we've all watched and seen the the country of Izzy sneak its way into everything seemingly and and and if it's not the power structure of it, it's the financing of it, or the the person on the inside of it. We just saw that our government raised its threat level on Israel spying on us? What does that mean?

SPEAKER_01 3:52

There should be no threat. There are ally. Ally.

SPEAKER_03 3:58

Ally. But regardless, we can all agree the bar for victory has been dropped, okay? That's all I'm saying. Can we agree on that? The bar for victory has been dropped because it started with regime change. Then it was we're gonna cause social revolt. Then it was we're gonna take out their nuclear facilities. And by the way, what was Midnight Hammer's operation in June? And then it just got to the point where we're just we just need the straight open. Can I read off a few things for you real quick? Because I want you to understand where I'm coming from here. I want to read off um in just a moment, because I got them in front of me. And this this is the crux of everything that I'm that I'm I'm stuck on in my brain right now. And the reason why I just turned on the camera, turned on the microphone, and said, let's let's just sort this out live. Is there's a part of my brain that goes against slightly, or or or maybe is a is a a counter to the two things I just mentioned. Because the bar for victory continues to drop, and now I'm seeing terms in this agreement that seem to have dropped it even further. To the point where I again I uh let me hold on to that. I don't want to get too I'm getting too ADHD'd here. Watch me in real time try to lasso it in. The bar for victory has been dropped further and further to the point where I see these terms for this proposed agreement, and I wonder if the bar's below the floor. I say that as unpartisan as possible. Just looking at the facts. On our last episode, we talked about those facts, or the one before. The last one was the graphs, 79. We talked about the terms of this agreement, and they ended up being the terms of the agreement. We're gonna talk about that in a second. But the second thing is this idea of we want the war to end. And I want the war to end. Don't get me wrong, I just can't not see the chess pieces on the board moving that lead me to believe that this memorandum of understanding is not going to lead to a 60-day peace period of beautiful negotiations where everybody walks away honky dory and no more missiles fly. I wish that were the truth. I wish I believed that. I wish that could come true. And if it does, I will happily be wrong. But the problem is, I can't see past obvious patterns unfolding. I get it. The stock market is going up, and I'll be it as it should. This is one of the first times I've seen the stock market moving appropriately and multiple markets moving appropriately. We've seen crypto move up, we've seen gold silver move up, we've seen stocks across the board shoot up, Dow Jones SP. This is news that is worthwhile for finances to get involved. If you've listened to the show for the past 10-15 episodes, you know I've been very, very adamantly uh questioning the valuation of the SP 500 and its movement up since the war began, oil shorting activity, the price being manipulated, and as well the price of things like fertilizer and fuel leading to the cost of food potentially going up in the future. I think all that stuff still exists. So I can't get up here and um and and be as patriotic about this moment. I know last night we had our big UFC 250 event and and we got the World Cup going on, and New York just won the NBA finals. Go, Jalen Brunson. He's a beast. No one's better than Jalen Brunson when it's time to be better than Jalen Brunson. And the war on Friday, we're gonna sign a deal. It says in Geneva, Friday, June 19th, the United States sends uh plans to send JD Vance uh to sign on behalf of the United States, as well as Pakistani and Iranian mediators who will be present. Uh Trump potentially could be at this signing. He will be at the G7 summit in France this week. Uh Avian Le Bons, France, probably mispronounced that. More than likely. Couple questions we still have on the table from this, and then I'll read you through the terms of the deal. Couple questions we still have. Are the UAE and Saudi Arabia going to send representatives? Are they in on this deal? They've been bombed multiple times throughout this skirmish. Multiple times throughout this skirmish, and and their infrastructure severely damaged. These are countries that are some of the largest investors foreignly in our stock markets and financial markets here in America.

SPEAKER_00 8:40

Their relationship is kind of important. It's not, it's not not important. I can't say it's not important.

SPEAKER_01 8:47

It's pretty important. It's pretty important. It's pretty important.

SPEAKER_03 8:53

So again, just forgive me for not just stepping up to immediately salute the flag and screech like an eagle. And and just wait for the red, white, and blue fireworks in my heart to go off. I I I just don't think this is done. Couple reasons, but first let's go through the terms of the deal. Alright. I had this uh pulled up. Let me pull this up real quick. By the way, while I'm doing this, because I have oh god.

SPEAKER_01 9:28

My app locker is blocking me. Bless you! My wife sneezed.

SPEAKER_03 9:34

Got this app locker, Opal. Day 173, baby. That uh blocks specific apps. So I can be a little bit more on top of it. Uh let me go through right here and pull the terms of this deal. Okay, so Iran's mayor news claims uh a draft that is finalized between Trump and Iran would provide $300 billion in reconstruction funding towards the infrastructure of Iran. That a toll isn't going to be charged in the Strait of Hormuz, but instead, Iran will provide services under the name Maritime Transport and provide the necessary service fees as it's being reported. America has not commented on that. Iranian media is also stating that there will be a $12 billion uh with three billion dollars up front, unfreezing of their frozen assets. So the way this is reading out, it seems that um the deal states that three billion is to be unfrozen immediately upon the signing of this memorandum of understanding. And then at the 60-day mark, uh when the negotiations are finalized, another 20 or a total of 24 billion is to be unfrozen in the uh the assets we've we've been freezing their assets since the 70s. This isn't just like Obama, Trump, Obama, Trump. It's been a while. And we've we do this, by the way, we do it to constrain their economy. When their dollars enter our system, and then we can freeze their accounts and hold their dollars hostage. It keeps them from being able to transact and trade with the rest of the world as efficiently. Because a lot is traded in the dollar. So as long as we have that world reserve currency stranglehole, we do have the ability to kind of turn on the on-off switch on someone's financial plumbing to a degree. Okay, so again, America has stated, JD Vance and Trump have both stated at this point no money is to be released to Iran. The funds have nothing to do with this at this point. That's that's the claim coming out of the White House at this moment. So again, going back to the patterns, I'm seeing two different sides of the coin, two different sides of reality. Is this the White House possibly just looking to not talk about the elephant in the room until the elephant's already walked out, you know, and the money's already gone out, and there's nothing more to debate? That could be happening. They could just be biting their time, just not talk about it, act like it's not there. Or is this just another case of the two sides really truthfully not being on the same page? This was a deal, by the way, that there was supposed to be signed on Sunday. And then all of a sudden it was going, oh, we'll get signed uh tomorrow, and now it's getting signed Friday. Who's to say that's gonna happen? Why is it getting pushed? What could happen in between? I'll tell you what could happen in between. What if Lebanon, which is one of the key points of this agreement, let me go ahead and read it, peace and a ceasefire for all armed forces to include Iran, the United States, and their allies to include Israel and Lebanon. So this means two things Iran cannot attack Israel, and number two, Israel cannot attack Lebanon. But the problem is, maybe Nyahu said yesterday, via X and other sources, they're not stopping. They're gonna keep attacking Hezbollah, who are an Iranian-backed militant uh militia group. Disgusting, I'm sure. That uh they are attacking and targeting while they also break down residential buildings and hospitals and kill doctors in Beirut and other areas of southern Lebanon. So again, I don't see that ending. And BB just said, like he's not he's not leaving it up for debate. That's the thing, he's not leaving it up for debate. He's saying, I'm not doing it.

SPEAKER_02 14:01

I'm not doing it, I'm not gonna do it. You can't make me. You can't make me do it. Trump highlighted yesterday also that Netanyahu is a quote unquote very difficult guy.

SPEAKER_03 14:14

Very difficult. I imagine. I imagine it's probably difficult to negotiate with someone who could potentially have full-scale blackmail on you and your family. I don't know. I don't know. I'm not in the rooms high enough to make it happen. I've looked at the evidence, the evidence seems pretty damning of his involvement in the Epstein Files, of his involvement with people like Eugene Carroll and the and the actual evidence we have around his character, considering how he views women uh since the 70s and 80s on multiple reports, uh, well before he even hit the limelight outside of finances in New York. I mean, we kind of have a character background on the guy, you know, and then we have this Epstein fellow who seems to be paling around with him. Roy Cohn seems to be paling around with him. Well, those people are known for specific ideals, and and and then we get this guy involved in in basically covering up those very things he claims not to be a part of. I uh I I reserve judgment. I reserve judgment. I don't know everything. I really don't. I don't know a lot, I don't claim to know a lot. I'm a I'm a real estate agent, god damn it. I'm sitting here drinking a protein shake talking about a war. And why? Because this war costs money, it's causing inflation, it's causing bond rates to go up, it's causing a tougher economy for you and I. So a couple military leaders and government officials can look better in history in terms of being the war powers and peace generators of the generation. And then you on the other side of that get higher costs, uncertain times, and inflation. And that's what we're living in. A lot of uncertain times. We don't know which way is up. We got people I'm seeing on X that are cheering against the end of this world, people like Mark Levin saying, I can't believe this. We're not gonna destroy Iran. What? Well, what about Israel? What will they do? Leave it up to them. I hope, by the way, I hope the bombing in Lebanon stops. But hear me, what if it continues? As it probably will, as BB has just said, he will. Here's where all of this might work out for good. If Trump really has, and I I have said on this show, by the way, before I say this, I have said I believe this was fake. I believe I said this was fake news, and I'm staying by that, but I'm saying at the end of the day, if I am wrong about the purported phone call that happened last week between Bibi Netanyahu and Donald Trump about you're fing crazy, BB. Israel hates you now because of this. If that really happened, and now Trump is actually signing a deal without Israel say so, and Israel will actually stop bombing Lebanon. Wow. I mean, that's completely against what I would think is the power dynamic there. If you catch on my drift. I mean, catch my drift or get on the next wave here. That's completely against how I believe the power dynamic is really working. So is is is this relationship deteriorating? Is is is there something there? Or is this more show? Is this controlled op type deal? Or at the end of the day with Iran, is this them actually having some pressure in this situation? There are reports that potentially they were gonna launch a full-scale military attack, ballistic attack on Israel Sunday. Why?

SPEAKER_01 17:39

Because Israel bombed Lebanon. Israel defense minister says Netanyahu made it clear to President Trump and senior U.S.

SPEAKER_03 17:53

officials that Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon despite the agreement with Iran.

SPEAKER_01 18:05

Again, going back to the terms of this agreement.

SPEAKER_03 18:09

$300 billion in reconstruction funding, $24 billion in total at the end of this in unfrozen assets, $3 billion up front upon the beginning of the ceasefire conversations, a 60-day ceasefire, immediate suspension of all economic sanctions, withdraw of all.

SPEAKER_01 18:35

Hear me. This is where again my brain just I don't want to be negative Nancy.

SPEAKER_03 18:40

I don't I want to be sour push Steve. I don't want to be him. I don't want to be one of these uh what what what have I would have been a doomer? I don't want to be a doomer. I I I want to be uh I wanna be an expose of the economic benefits of the boomers. I I don't want to be that I want to be pumped up. I want I just got back from the gym, right? I'm wearing a SpongeBob outfit. I'm I'm wearing a SpongeBob outfit on episode 82 of a podcast I shoot underground in Delaware, and I have no historic backing or education that gives me permission to talk about the subject matters we're even going through. I'll be honest with you. I'm just reading the patterns of the room, and as I see the economic strings that maneuver because of things like this, it forces me to learn more about the things that we're listening or that is happening. And I'm I'm listening and I'm watching and I'm reading and I'm trying to gain this knowledge almost in real time of what's going on. And in following the direct, most immediate patterns that I have seen unfold in this war with Iran is that they want money, we don't want to give it. They want peace for their allies, and we don't have the ability to give it to them.

SPEAKER_01 19:57

Like, we don't have the ability to give it to them. It's it's it's it's it's it's like you play pickleball. And your pickleball partner has broken his leg. How'd he break his leg? Somebody hit him with a lead pipe.

SPEAKER_03 20:21

God. Your pickleball partner cannot play in the pickleball tournament this weekend because he has been hit in the knee and broke his kneecap because he was hit by a lead pipe in a dark alley near his house.

SPEAKER_01 20:37

What are you to do? You're put in a tough situation. Who are you facing this weekend? You're facing Ahmad Shabiv and the Iranian team. Well, now you're damaged. What are you supposed to do? You're one of the allies is hurt. Your pickleball partner is hurt.

SPEAKER_03 21:01

He's got a broken leg because he'd been hit in the kneecap, the patella, with a lead pipe. Straight 40 style. Hit in a kneecap position, just cracked it right with a lead-based uh lead-based paint pipe. A lead pipe covered in lead-based paint. Because he's gonna poison you all while breaking your bones. Okay, but hear me. This isn't the first time this has happened. See, for years, coincidentally, anytime you get to the point where true progress is being made in your pickleball career, something happens to one of your playing partners, and it makes it more difficult for you to progress without that one friend. So you have a friend who has always played pickleball with you when you needed him. He always came to the court whenever you had a downed ally. He always stood by you. Did he always lead to good results? Not really. Does he play by the Rules? Can't say he does. In fact, he's he's wanted by many uh pickleball associations for uh fraud against his own association, as well as uh he's killed his opponents before. If you had a friend who consistently was getting his knee destroyed, evaporated by a lead-based paint, lead pipe before your pickleball tournaments, and you found out that the person who's been hitting him in the knee every single time is the person that you're playing pickleball with, who took his place. You found out he was the one hitting him in the knee all because he wanted to just keep playing with you.

SPEAKER_00 22:47

He wants to stay in the game. He loves the game. The game is everything to him.

SPEAKER_03 22:54

He'll do whatever it takes to keep it going. And so long as he's playing the game, he can't be investigated by the Pickleball Association for his crimes against pickleball. His crimes against pickleball cannot be looked into or investigated by the pickleball association because he is currently and actively in a tournament because you need a playing partner. And for decades you have served this playing partner, and this championship was promised to him thousands of years ago. But he keeps hurting people to ensure he can keep playing. And if you kept seeing time and time again, you say, stop doing this. I found out it is you. You were the one hurting my pickleball partners to the point where they cannot walk for four months, to the point where they forget what grass feels like because they wear a boot or have to be elevated in a bed and keep their foot above their head. I they forgot what grass felt like or what walking in sand felt like for time. They had to relearn the walk one of them because of you. And all because you want to play this game, you just want to play pickleball? Why aren't we associating with different friends? Why are we still calling up? Why don't we call on someone different? We see the plays, we see the play that keeps happening. You get far in the tournament and they say, I got him. Hey, I'll play for you.

SPEAKER_01 24:19

Are you following this stupid analogy? I don't think Lebanon under America understands, Americans understand anything, myself included, of what's actually going on in this war. Because we're being lied to.

SPEAKER_03 24:54

And and there's there's market manipulation happening right in front of us, and and there's there's companies like oil executives touting about the profits off of things like Venezuela in this, and all while you're paying more at the pump, food prices are gonna be higher at the end of this year, everything energy-wise, is more expensive. Do you understand what that means long term for inflation and prices? The PPI index is just at 6.5% the other day. How am I supposed to look at this economy? How am I supposed to understand? Almighty God, the the the the blessing of understanding some of the gears, just some of the gears in the machine and how they operate. Some of the strings that move the system. How am I supposed to see that and then simultaneously dissect it and learn, oh, this seems like a negative thing long term? And just watch it happen and happen and again and again in Israel and Israel and BlackRock and BlackRock and a banker and a Rajah and a tech bro and a government official. It's like, oh, and you're all on the Epstein list, and no one wants to talk about that anymore. And why am I viewed as Zach? Don't be such a gloomer doomer.

SPEAKER_00 26:07

What do you want me to talk about?

SPEAKER_03 26:10

You want me to be like the late night news? You want me to be like the late night news at the end? You know, they'll be like, and 18 people died in this car wreck as a plane actually lands on a parade. And then they'll go into and also a school catches on fire, where 17 learning, uh, learning uh uh I forgot where I'm going with it.

SPEAKER_01 26:32

Regardless, at the end of the news segment, they're like, and by the way, this soldier just came home from Iraq. And here's his meet and greet. Oh while they show you a bunch of things exploding in war beforehand.

SPEAKER_03 26:49

It's do you want that? Do you want the palette cleanser? I can add some palette cleansers, but again, I didn't have a I'm not reading off some script or outline today, guys. I'm really this is just vibing.

SPEAKER_01 27:06

Monologuing. But I guess good monologues have scripts. Riffin. Cause I don't know.

SPEAKER_03 27:16

I don't know. Maybe this is maybe this memorandum of understanding leads to a 60-day peace period that's all honky-dory and it walks away uh better Iran does than it was before, and the United States can just wipe this off and say, I'm good. But again, if I look at the terms of the agreement, let's go back through it real quick. It says Trump criticizes Netanyahu over the US-Iran peace framework. Trump highlighted how the Islamabad memorandum of understanding, mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, ends military operations across all fronts. So that's to include Lebanon, include Israel, Iran, if Turkey were to ever get involved. Lifts the blockade on Iranian ports. So the Iran and the U.S. blockade, done. And we can confirm the Strait of Hormuz has more traffic. So it looks like a southern pathway is open through the Strait of Hormuz. There are thousands of boats still on the inside of the Strait of Hormuz that have been kind of just sitting idle. So it will take a while to get them all out to their destination and then back. But it is moving. And reopens the Strait of Hormuz toll free. Again, the toll isn't there, but Iranian news stating there is going to be some type of maritime transport fee. It says the framework including suspending oil sanctions, releasing $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds, and $300 billion in U.S. reconstruction aid with nuclear talks starting on Friday in Switzerland for a 15 to 20 year enrichment suspension. Israel rejected the deal, including them uh or excluding them, vowing to pursue Hezbollah in southern Lebanon independently. And again, I I uh I I hope that Iran and America can just let Israel be whatever it needs to be. Here's what I want. Donald Trump. Donald Trump, if you were the guy that you said you were, here is that opportunity to look BB Netanyahu in the face and say, oh, oh, you're so you think you're gonna ruin my negotiation on my birthday? I'm watching these men fight for me on my front lawn today. There is a lot of money that went into this. I'm gonna enjoy all of this next to Dana White. This is gonna be great. You're gonna ruin it by attacking Beirut to get in the way of my negotiation. You forced me to push this to Friday, you dick. Got it. If you're gonna keep attacking Lebanon, if you're gonna keep doing that, if that's what you want to do, if you want to do that, that's cool, that's cool, that's cool.

SPEAKER_01 30:02

We're done giving you money. How's that sound? How's that sound, big Yahoo? Yahoo News just got an alert. You suck. What what do you got?

SPEAKER_03 30:16

What do you got? I'm done. I'm done. You're fired. I'd love to see that, man. I would love to see that. You imagine? You imagine Trump's just biding his time into the AI age when no one can tell what's real or what's fake. He knows that they have atrocious blackmail on him, but if he could just wait it out to when Claude is so good that nothing is trusted online anymore, and then he just slams the door on Israel? Cool. I don't think that's gonna happen.

SPEAKER_01 30:46

I don't think that's gonna happen, just to be very, very clear. But I can dream.

SPEAKER_03 30:54

Details of the diplomatic aspects uh will be fully made public soon, according to a great follow Mario Nauphal on X. It says travel plans to those regional countries is scheduled uh before the Geneva meeting. Final decision on the signing mechanism will be taken within a day or tomorrow. Respect for Lebanon's national sovereignty is one of the main pillars of the agreement. Ending the war in Lebanon is an inseparable part of the comprehensive ceasefire pause. I got one last question written down here right on the uh right on my notebook. I took five notes before this started. I took five notes with with three questions, two statements. The three questions I got is will the UAE and Saudi send their representatives on Friday? Will the straight remain open as it seems to be until then?

SPEAKER_01 31:58

And can Trump get BB to stop bombing Lebanon? But hear me up.

SPEAKER_03 32:06

Okay, I want us to be positioned properly, and there's probably a couple cool cats listening to this right now, and I mean a couple because the YouTube algorithm absolutely hates us. It absolutely hates us. I've been sending our YouTube studio um uh data to different people in the space um that that are really killing it on YouTube. I got awesome podcasts. Like, I'm gonna be a guest on a couple really cool podcasts this summer, and I've been able to just chat it up with them. Like, what are you seeing here? And like, bro, the the topic mattered. They got you or something because the watch view uh time, uh the duration is good, the subscriber counts should be, but all that it doesn't matter. All I'm saying that is, you know, it could just be me and you in the room right now. What's up? How are you doing? How's this all making you feel? I love you. I care about you. I want to stop for just a moment to make sure you know that. You should be pursuing whole wealth, you should be going after your body, your brain, your spirit's benefit every single day. You should be putting yourself through something difficult to make the things that are fun in life feel fun again, to be able to connect deeper with the people you want to connect with, to connect deeper with you and get more in towards the purpose of your unmarked soul here on this earth, the journey you have as a human living out this experience on earth, maybe a spiritual being living a human experience, as they say. I love you, and thank you for taking the time to even give me a breath of air into your ear.

SPEAKER_01 33:34

Sounded a little sexual, did it? Didn't it? Did it not? Can Trump get BB to stop bombing Lebanon? I don't think he can! But again, hear me out at the end of the day. Even if he did.

SPEAKER_03 33:59

Let's assume he did. I want to play just a little bit of devil's advocate against myself. Let me play from the red side of the aisle real fast. Oil roots turned back on. Okay, the economy can begin to restabilize itself. Will oil prices shock up a little bit due to supply post this? More than likely. But it will come back down eventually, and there's no no doubt progress and momentum has been made with the strait being open toward stabilization of that market, oil.

SPEAKER_01 34:30

Okay.

SPEAKER_03 34:34

Iran's pledging over these 60 days we're gonna negotiate that they're not gonna have any nuclear creation.

SPEAKER_01 34:40

Grand.

SPEAKER_03 34:42

And if Trump can truly stand up to BB and get him to stop bombing Lebanon to force this ceasefire and war to actually end, that's a big win. That's a big win. Right? We should be applauding such things.

SPEAKER_01 35:01

Well, let me move to the blue side of the aisle. Blue side of the aisle might say, US is ending a war they started. Blue side might say, Well, this war. Wait a minute, no, the strait was open, wasn't it? This war wasn't over the strait of four moves.

SPEAKER_03 35:21

It got Chuppakas, and they'd be correct. Some even wackos right there in the middle might even say, we didn't even start this war because of our own needs or efforts.

SPEAKER_01 35:31

We started it on the behest of Israel, so we're ending something that shouldn't have started for a country that has nothing to do with us, would be their argument.

SPEAKER_03 35:44

I think we're somewhere in the middle here. I think there needs to be room for encouragement and room for momentum saying maybe the economy can stabilize itself out of this. I really hope it does. But I do believe certain things like food and fertilizer have already been set in place by the past actions in April and May, that what happens here in June and beyond really, not to say it doesn't matter, but the seeds have been sown, as they would say. And we already have reports from farmers that are struggling. So I if I have the patterns, how am I supposed to look elsewhere? From the patterns. Okay, from the patterns.

SPEAKER_01 36:17

Last question I wrote to myself, though, is this. And here's here's if everything I just said as far as the war's over, the straits open. Let's lock back in.

SPEAKER_03 36:33

The war's over, the straits back open, no missiles flying on any fronts. Okay, no missiles flying on any fronts. If we were to examine just the details of what this war got us versus what it got Iran, would it be considered a victory? And this is where I would give based off of the facts in front of me. If confirmed, if by the end of any negotiating period we find that there is ink on documentation that states the following the the the the twenty-four billion in frozen Iranian asset funds, unfrozen, three hundred billion in US reconstructive aid, and complete dismissal of all of our troops from anywhere around Iran, and they get to have this maritime transport services fee.

SPEAKER_01 37:39

If all of that is true, is that a win for America? It just doesn't seem like it.

SPEAKER_03 37:59

I know we don't have access to the actual 24 billion of frozen assets. In fact, we should unfreeze all of that so long as we can somehow track it to make sure they're not using it to build a bunch of weaponry. But also, how do we know they're not gonna use it to build a whole bunch of weaponry? To all the the warhawks out there that believe they're just nothing but a bunch of cave-dwelling uh mud eaters that love to build nukes. What's gonna stop them from using all that money just to build more nukes? Zach, they're going to agree not to. Okay. Because that really got us to trust him this time, right? They have agreed not to in the past, and guess what? We still had BB Netanyahu up here saying they are at least two weeks away from having a nuclear weapon.

SPEAKER_01 38:41

We have to stop them right now. Right now. And so what is their word gonna actually do?

SPEAKER_03 38:52

A. Um B a lot of people are just touting the fact that the strait is open. The strait's been open, it was open before this, and now Iran's taking control over it via this Persian Gulf Strait Authority with Oman, and they're gonna be charging a fee. So it's more expensive to transit, and now Iran is overseeing the transport where it used to just be kind of free C. Um, that's a loss. We're unfreezing assets again. Uh who cares about that one? That's not real money. We can't utilize the money, and the money's just kind of sitting there. Yes, how do we know what they're gonna use the money for? But just unfreeze them. That's not a win or loss. I think that's kind of neutral. But 300 billion in reconstructive aid, is that gonna be printed? Is that gonna be sold-off bonds? Is that going to be taxpayer money? Where's that money gonna come from? Other allies? Where's that money gonna come from?

SPEAKER_02 39:51

I guess I want to end with this. My head's a few different places with all of this. Will Israel stop bombing Lebanon? Or will the war keep going on and on?

SPEAKER_03 40:07

I don't know. I have no clue. I don't know. One thing I'd like to say though, that I do know. With all of this, I I I don't want you to sit here and say any which way or the third, because I don't know. I don't know if the terms of this agreement will be the terms that we're reading today. I don't know if there's gonna be a bomb that drops tomorrow. I don't know if this is gonna be the greatest uh time of peace for the next 10 years the world has ever experienced.

SPEAKER_01 40:37

I don't know if an asteroid's gonna hit tomorrow. I don't know. One thing I know is based off of what has already happened. Two things are more than likely to be true in the future.

SPEAKER_03 40:56

A we're probably gonna have a wave of supply shock in terms of oil. Right now, oil is trading low on once again, vibes, headlines, we have a supply issue, and these boats that are stuck. I have the picture up in front of me, uh, hundreds of boats stuck in the Persian Gulf. It's not thousands, I think it's thousands. It's gonna take a while to get them all out. Usually 150 pass through before this war, 150 a day. Now only traveling the south side because there's still the threat of mines. Uh, maybe it's a hundred, maybe it's still 150. Gonna take a while to get them all out and get everybody else back in. And then, of course, the traveling by sea could take weeks, months to get to their destination. We'll more than likely have a quick shock in oil, regardless. If this were to go completely peacefully from here on out, still probably gonna see that quick shock. Secondarily, the shock that's already happened. Food and fuel. Fuel went up, that made the cost of product production go up, that made the production uh cost of shipping, exporting, importing, manufacturing, all go up. All go up. Diesel, um oh, there's a little three-lettered word. I can't remember with diesel, either way. Urea fertilizer. 40% of the world's fertilizer comes out of this straight of four moves right here. And that is going to affect food long term because there's going to be less food grown this year, meaning less food for other animals, less food that can go to grocery stores, less food ingredients that can go into regular produce uh processed foods, less food. Less food means less people eat. Less people eating with the same amount of people means food gets more expensive because the food is more valuable. So I think there's gonna be more expensive food. I've told you right now what the action for that is. I've I've been talking about planting a garden for months and months and months. Put some seeds in the ground.

SPEAKER_01 43:01

And the second thing within that is the fuel. We already got PPI producer price index at 6.5%.

SPEAKER_03 43:12

That means the items that they are creating are going to be more expensive. So lower your consumption. Start stacking your pennies now, get rid of the subscriptions, stop giving all your money to macro corporations, stop giving all your money to these gigantic department stores, start planting your own seeds, start going to the gym right at your house if you need to. Stop getting a haircut every single week. Stop subscribing to everything, stop buying the pay-per-view events, stop going to concerts, stop doing all the fun things. Yeah, it sounds dumb. It sounds like you're giving up on life, it sounds like you're not getting to enjoy life, but things are going to be more expensive, and I frankly just want you set up for it. I just want you set up for it. I feel we're kind of going through this roaring 20s type deal where everyone's around just still going out to the big concerts and doing all the expensive stuff and ordering all the DoorDash. And I sound like a boomer here, but money is getting sifted away, man. The amount of people I see casually, just DraftKings and FanDuel, oh god, Calci and Poly Market, just gambling, just gambling. I all I'm saying is it feels very roaring 20s-esque of the flattening that's gonna happen on this curve, and and I think the war definitely has to do with it. But this has been set up for decades on the house of legislation being ripped out from under our economy and banking cartels and Reaganomics and Glass-Steagall, and we could go on and on, but I'm gonna end there. God, what am I what am I to end on? I think I think we just gotta end there. Um yes, it's just in Iran's foreign ministry spokesman, uh Ismail Bakhier Bakier says, quote, according to the memorandum of understanding, Iran and Oman will be responsible for managing passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is not seeking to impose tolls. However, in return for navigation services, environmental protection, insurances, and other maritime services, Iran will collect the necessary fees.

SPEAKER_01 45:19

Do you think that's gonna fly? Long term?

unknown 45:24

I don't know.

SPEAKER_03 45:26

And it says as of this morning, there are 29 verified vessel crossings. So again, they're moving. See if it continues. Just vibing. Thanks for joining in. Episode 82 of the Zach Fell Show. Monologue style with no producer. So next episode you'll have Sean back in. We'll be right back at it. Gonna finish my protein shake. Love you.