Using Political Signals in Ministry Futures with Dave Weston and Joel Harder

Signal Café hosts Chris Forbes and Matt Tullos welcome Dave Weston, an entrepreneur and political strategist, and Joel Harder, a law school graduate, former pastor, and legislative chaplain, for a discussion on how to use political signals to strengthen ministry leadership through strategic foresight. The conversation explores institutional trust, civic engagement, political idolatry, economic pressures, AI, and cultural change while introducing practical foresight concepts such as horizons, drivers, and distinguishing signals from noise. Leaders will discover how slowing down, praying, and separating signals from noise can strengthen discernment and help them lead faithfully through cultural and political change.

© 2026 Forbes Nonprofit Strategies. All rights reserved. Signal Café is a podcast of Forbes Nonprofit Strategies, and Incite Futures Labs is a foresight training offering. Music generated using Suno AI, lyrics adapted and produced for Signal Café

Transcript

SPEAKER_03 0:22

Hey, and welcome back to the Signal Cafe podcast. I'm Chris Forbes from Forbesstrategies.com and the Inside Futures Labs, and I'm here with Matt Tullis today.

SPEAKER_01 0:33

Hey Chris. Hey, I've got a question for you.

SPEAKER_03 0:36

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 0:37

How are you doing? I mean, it's it's been how long that you've been off of uh the MySpace.

SPEAKER_03 0:47

Well, it's been probably a couple of decades since I've been off of MySpace, but I've been off of social media.

SPEAKER_01 0:53

But you've been on this uh social media fast.

SPEAKER_03 0:55

Yeah, I'm starting to get the jitters.

SPEAKER_01 0:57

I and you look you you're so much more godly, it seems like.

SPEAKER_03 1:00

I I know this because this is a Shekinah thing going that from you know not scrolling up those of you who uh weren't paying attention before, I have been abstaining from the personal use of social media, so I'm not doom scrolling all day and not uh you know trying to I'm trying to get Brick the habit of using social media all the time. And I decided to do extend my uh annual hiatus from social media in July all the way through August, and I'm starting to feel it.

SPEAKER_01 1:31

Yeah, tell me some of your observations about this uh incredible social media fast.

SPEAKER_03 1:38

Well, one thing is I um I don't see I don't see the rage that I I normally do, the political rage. And you know how the social media rage takes place uh online and we just kind of feed each other. Everybody's trying to drop the mic on each other. I I've actually adopted a philosophy. So what I do is I ignore all the labels, and then when I go in the voting booth booth, I just push a button. It it works every time. That's how I do my laundry, also. That's awesome. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 2:14

I'm wearing pink t-shirts, but so we're gonna be talking about the voting booth.

SPEAKER_03 2:20

Yeah, we are. We're actually gonna talk about some uh politics and using political signals in ministry foresight. I have a couple of friends, Dave Weston and uh Joel Harder are joining us today. They both have uh extensive experience in this sphere of uh politics and working with people who are political from both sides of the aisle. And just wanted to invite them. Gentlemen, thank you for joining us today on the podcast.

SPEAKER_00 2:48

Absolutely. Thanks for having me.

SPEAKER_03 2:51

Could you guys go ahead and introduce yourselves and uh tell a little bit about your background and how you came uh to you know be involved in politics?

SPEAKER_00 3:01

I'll let Dave go first.

SPEAKER_04 3:03

Sure. Uh again, thanks for uh having me on the program, uh Chris and uh Matt. It's certainly a pleasure and an honor. Um I have uh worked in finance for over 30 years and then sprinkled in between, have had some hiatuses both in consulting and uh political activism. And so uh happy to uh join the podcast.

SPEAKER_00 3:29

Yeah, and um my background it kind of spans uh a bit of a career pivot. So I spent about 10 years in pastoral ministry in Washington, D.C., and um had a lot of politicos in our church. So I kind of began to uh interact with a lot of um political operatives and and uh policy staff and Capitol Hill staff when I was in ministry up there. Uh moved to Oklahoma and I launched a ministry in the Capitol, serving as the chaplain of the House of Representatives for about eight years, um uh working with uh legislators uh in the House and across the whole Capitol, um, on both sides of the aisle in a in a nonpartisan, non-lobbying uh role. Uh and now I am um uh transitioned into a career as an attorney doing um transactional uh corporate counsel work.

SPEAKER_03 4:21

Right. So um one thing I've noticed in uh horizon scanning in is which a discipline we use in strategic foresight to look for signals of change. That next to technology, political signals are the easiest to find. And there's such a rich uh amount of information, I guess mainly because of the reporting, and there's also kind of the you know, the horse race commentaries that you see everywhere, and it impacts so many domains. It impacts technology and law and culture and um authority and all kinds of issues. So I could see why people are into it, but it's also one of the most difficult to not get entangled with your own biases because we all have opinions. And um, so why do you think, why would you guys how would you guys explain, you know, why pastors should pay attention to political signals if our mission is gospel advancement?

SPEAKER_04 5:25

Um well, I mean, I I think first and foremost, the the price that we pay for not participating in the political arena is to be governed by someone who doesn't share our values. Uh and is so I mean we've really got to to stay plugged in and engaged. Got to be in the water, uh in the boat, not necessarily fully engaged in the water. And so uh I'm thankful uh for uh leaders uh that uh are willing to uphold traditional Christian values.

SPEAKER_00 6:02

I agree entirely. Um you know it the ability to participate democratically and choose uh our leaders uh is a unique blessing that uh has not existed for most of human history and does not exist everywhere in the world today. And so I think part of um a Christian um philosophy and biblical uh approach to being involved um in politics is is quite frankly just one of recognizing uh the blessing that we have uh to do that. Um and uh and I also think it's humbling because when you look back on the you know the kings and the way in which uh you know leaders were ordained by God, and and you would see you would see the king, and there was usually a prophet that God would send. Um, and you might look at this democratic process where we're all voting and think, well, has does that lessen God's sovereignty? You know, now that we're all participating. I personally I think it actually magnifies God's sovereignty that um that God is still, you know, he he was sovereign in the selection of of King David, just as sovereign in King Nebuchadnezzar, he's just as sovereign uh now in our leaders, um, does not mean that our leaders are are you know uh always um uh people of impeccable character, integrity, or don't ever mess up, but God is still in control. And so uh I I look at this moment and being involved as one of gratitude uh for the blessing, but also um uh greater trust that God is still in control.

SPEAKER_03 7:47

Yeah. You know, uh one of the biggest issues we have right now, um, there uh they've done surveys and found that institutional trust, especially uh in political institutions, trust is like its lowest ebb in history. It like only 22% of people say they trust the government, and that's on both sides of the aisle. Whereas in the 60s it was up to like 70 percent. We have such a polarized uh society that um you know people uh I think this are characterized. I I wonder, you know, how did we get here? Is it because of the kind of the soundbite approach to trying to do the gotcha politics? Or how did how how do you think trust began to decline with um uh in society from you know, and and and like I think, you know, I've had conversations with friends that are, you know, on the right and they don't even trust the people on the right. And then the same for people that are, you know, more uh left of center that I know that are you know they're also very distrusting. What are your thoughts on that?

SPEAKER_04 9:02

I I mean I we were a nation founded upon mistrusting the government. So I think it's number one, it's ingrained into you know our society and in the fact that uh, you know, our separation from England, our declaration of independence was all based upon, you know, uh taxation without representation. And so I think there's always been kind of a healthy cynicism toward government, uh rightfully so. Um, but by the same token, it has gotten to uh uh a level that it needs to be uh regained and rebuilt.

SPEAKER_00 9:41

I'm also uh you know, I'm a big fan of uh Jonah Goldberg, who's one of my favorite kind of public commentators and pundits, and and he um has uh a statement that stuck with me that um often when you don't understand a system or don't understand uh a mechanism or institution, um you're you're prone to distrust it when you don't understand it. Um and I think that that's also part of what's going on as well as people don't really understand. Um, you know, I our our system of government was designed so that it would be very hard to get stuff done. Um bicameralism, presentment, um uh the veto power, that what it would I mean, it was designed to be a very um grueling system, in the thought that what actually does get through the system would would have the best chance of being um you know good for uh for the public at large. And uh and you know, and right now what for whatever reason, um somewhere in my lifetime, uh politics has become a zero-sum game where you know I have to win, uh my my team has to win, has to win completely and every time, and if we don't, we've lost. And so, you know, not understanding that one, that's just not the way you know Congress was set up to to to work, but also you know, that don't understand exactly the way the courts work, and when the courts don't agree with me or side with me, or when you know the uh an agency does something that it doesn't that I don't want to do. Now it's this zero-sum game mindset that I you know I don't like it because it means I've lost. And underneath all of that is you know, maybe a better understanding of how these systems work. Um and and certainly the people who are working in these systems. Um, and so when you don't understand it, you it's it's easier just to distrust it. Right, right.

SPEAKER_04 11:52

I mean, I I do to to that end, I I do see some bright spots in there. Um, the the two senators from Pennsylvania, um, one a Democrat, one a Republican, um, Fetterman and the the Republican's name is escaping me off the top of my head. But uh they're demonstrating a remarkable and a wonderful um uh example of how two people can disagree agreeably and yet work toward the same end. And I'm hopeful that uh that type of an example can begin to take hold.

SPEAKER_03 12:27

Yeah, and you know, one thing, um uh it's very difficult to not have an opinion about politics as you look at it. But as a ministry leader, uh it's a really charged uh uh moment to be in the pulpit. And and then sometimes leaders kind of cross the line. It doesn't matter what side there are ministers who do that. And I think one of the things that we miss out in in foresight is we get if you get tangled up in the moment, you really kind of miss the signal. You miss because the signal is not necessarily the actual event itself, it is what it represents, uh, kind of at a deeper level, at a more of a meta-level. You know, institutional distrust is what we're talking about. And that and when you talk about institutional distrust, it is not just institutional distrust against politicians, it splashes over onto the church as well. And how you know, how do you see you know trust changing the way people approach churches because of politics?

SPEAKER_00 13:31

Well, I want to go back to what what David just pointed to. I think that there are bright spots and there are great examples that pop up uh uh, you know, all around us and all around the place. And you know, my role as chaplain in the house um here in Oklahoma um kind of gave me a front row seat to that. I got to see a lot of the actual people on both sides of the aisle working together, getting stuff done. And so um, you know, I I I lament that more people don't get to see that, but I I actually have a lot of optimism because I I was uh blessed with a with a front row seat to just a lot of really great human beings, you know, who who do not uh share the same you know political um priorities or convictions, but work are working together. And I think there's a lot of that that can be pointed to and if people would look for it. Um and I mean maybe it's it's the signals that are crowded out by the um by the you know outrage media and and clickbait stuff. And if you the signals are there to encourage you, but you might have to look for them a little more. At the same time, in the church, uh I think one of the ways that you rebuild institutional trust is is you you you start within the church. You you you come back into these other um institutions and arenas that are a little smaller and a little closer to home. And when you start to rebuild uh trust in an institution, um, that can begin to translate into other areas of society. So when I first look at you know what pastors can be doing is, you know, I mean leading their church well. Um and that means shepherding their church well, but also means you know, running and uh and being being a a chief officer of this organization. Uh I know that's kind of blasphemous coming out of the church growth movement of the 90s and early 2000s, but you know, I mean, part of it is recognizing that uh organizational, institutional leadership role. And um, and if if they're committed to doing that well, your people start to, you know, grow trust just in the institution that is their church. And that can translate. And I have great sympathy for pastors because they're in a tough spot. Um, they're in a very tough spot when it comes to trying to to navigate um uh what people are seeing in the culture and and what their they feel their responsibility is in the pulpit.

SPEAKER_03 16:01

One of the ironies that is that um trust in churches and political entities, even in education, are low, but trust's higher in the business world of businesses. Uh Dave, you are can you know financial consulting and stuff like that. Do you do you see how how do you navigate trust in in those kind of uh that kind of environment?

SPEAKER_04 16:28

Well, I I think in any setting, uh it's very important to just be transparent, get uh pastor, get uh, you know, an elected official. Uh I do also think it's important to go back and point out one thing that while there is a very high degree of mistrust amongst the institutions, amongst the the individual, when you pull people and drill down into what their trust is for their particular elected representative, it's usually really high.

SPEAKER_02 16:59

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04 17:00

Um, and you know, that uh that that in particular, if that individual is doing a really good job of, you know, going to the local diner and you know, drinking coffee with people, having a town hall meet, um, being engaged within your uh respective district, uh, those individuals have a very high level of trust that they've built up. That's why they keep getting re-elected. And that's also why, you know, like 90% of encompass win. And it's the ones that are vulnerable are the ones that stay disengaged and disconnected. And so, you know, in a way, it has a has a way of uh solving itself, so to speak. It's just getting people to uh get involved in the process. You know, it's interesting. Uh, if you ask somebody, they start complaining about something, and in and you're like, you know, have you been to a city council meeting? Have you been to a school board meeting? And have you gone there in a situation in which you're not mad about something with an access, right? Right. 90% of the people are gonna say no. And so that I think that goes back to what Joel was saying is you know, there's a disengagement and a mistrust, but there's also kind of a lack of knowledge, uh, that people they're they're not getting engaged in the process to know and understand better. And so they I think we're guilty of taking mental and emotional shortcuts. Yeah. Uh because we do live in the soundbite age. And uh, I'm not for sure exactly how we get past that, but it certainly is something that we can do, in my opinion, to try to challenge those around us to um get get active, get involved, and start showing up.

SPEAKER_03 18:45

I like that. When basically what you you're saying is we if we slow down and we look at how people are reacting, when you ask them a question and they react to the idea of trusting politicians or trusting the church, they say they don't trust it. But if you get down to my church, my pastor, or my congressman, there is more trust. Do you think that ultimately while on you know online and you know on TV and media and stuff, it looks like we're polarized. Do you think that we are uh really less polarized? Or is what's at what's at play here in your experience? And Dave, I know you you've worked in party politics before and you've kind of seen the big picture as well. And then Joel, you've worked with uh both sides of the aisle in you know counseling and spiritual, and then also in DC. And uh, you know, so like am I on to something or you know, what what are your thoughts there?

SPEAKER_00 19:48

Well, I'm gonna ask Chris to ask the question again because I had like three thoughts, but I want to I wanna Okay.

SPEAKER_03 19:55

So, like uh the way it's portrayed, you know, if you ask someone uh in a in a survey, whatever, do you trust the government or you do trust the church, they will say no. But if you ask them, you know, do they trust their their church or their pastor or do they trust their congressman? So like are we really closer together than we think or the way it appears online?

SPEAKER_00 20:19

Um so I've been involved in an enterprise really since I launched the ministry um a number of years ago to uh, you know, but there's the the side of what I would do with the legislators. And then there was a an outward-facing work where I was trying to work with people in the community at large. And part of that enterprise was to rehumanize uh elected leaders um and to you know stop viewing them as caricatures uh of what we think of them based upon their you know their their politics or their positions. And um, and so I I think when we do that, when um people uh are kind of pressed to to go that next step and actually you know look at them as as people and and rehumanize them. And of course, obviously I I gave a lot of resources on how to pray for leaders to try to do that, then yes, I think that there was you people would discover um this is anecdotally. I don't have I don't have uh I didn't run any any studies to to show um this, but anecdotally, when you do that, yes, you find that you don't you don't disagree as much as you thought you did. Um but if you don't do that, then I think, well, yeah, we actually are as as divided because when when you you know when you do think just in terms of your um your particular um uh political um you know priors, um that I mean that really is kind of governing uh a lot of what people think and say, certainly say online. And so I don't think that what you the the I don't think that the um uh you know bifurcation of society and the partisanship and the you know the the way in which we are divided is not real in that I mean that's I mean it is I think that is real. I think when people though do go one beyond or allow themselves to get beyond just their political priors and start actually engaging with other people, they find that they're not as as divided. So that's I don't know, maybe that's maybe as a politician's answer. I said, you know, yes and no, uh and no and yes at the same time. But um uh I I I do think that um I do think another key is to look closer to home. That was another part of our strategy at Capital Culture was you know, when you look to DC, the problems are so big, the numbers are so large, um the that people naturally default to, you know, uh dichotomous thinking up, down, left, right, I'm for it, I'm against it. And when you get closer to home, um, you know, the old saying, a pothole nose, no party, um, you know, people are able to think with more sophistication and nuance about uh problems that are um closer to home in their community. And uh and I think that's another exercise that that when when we do that, we find we're not as we're not as uh you know uh far apart as we think we are when we you know take closer, smaller problems, work and actually get to interact with people from other sides of of how to approach it. Um it's just a matter of doing that.

SPEAKER_04 23:48

Yeah. I'd like to find a way to try to uh increase primary participation uh again. Um I I recall listening to um a retired consultant, um, Ed Goaz, uh talk about um the fact that certainly 40 years ago, a third of Republicans and a third of Democrats would show up to select their nominee. And today those numbers have been cut in half. And they tend to be at the extreme of both the right and the left. And so I think that's uh uh could be a very strong reason why we're getting such extreme views that are so far apart. Uh, so that would be one thing. Um, another thing I would encourage uh someone that I have met on two different occasions, and probably my favorite governor uh during my lifetime is Frank Keating. And uh I Frank Keating was able to be incredibly successful with the Democratic legislature and able to get things through. And um, I've heard him talk before about how if he was trying to get, if he was trying to win someone to his way of thinking, he would invite them to the governor's mansion on a Saturday, a Sunday, and basically eat popcorn and watch a sports event and talk with them and get to know him. And he was able to be incredibly effective that way. And so, you know, I'd like to see if we could get um our elected officials to do a better job of that, encourage that. I I've certainly seen a personal example of that. One of the last uh uh candidates that I consulted with uh was going to be in Washington, D.C. Um, and so I reached out to another connection that I'd worked with in the past and said, Hey, um this guy's gonna be in D.C. I'd love to meet you. And the instructions came back, uh, well, sure, having come to so-and-so address at 9:30 at night. Well, uh, the candidate showed up to that address at 9:30 at night, and um a Bible study had just dismissed, and there were over a dozen um elected officials in there from both sides of the aisle. And um, I remember talking to that individual following and just thanking him for you know taking the time to bring this guy in um and to introduce him around. And you know, his perspective was David, you know, everybody wants to portray DC as Sodom and Gomorrah. And certainly there are aspects of it that uh, you know, cause concern. But by the same token, from my perspective, I still see peep God calling people here. And if it was truly Sodom and Gomorrah, he would be getting his people out. Yeah. And so um, you know, I think we've got to do a really good job of of acknowledging the issues that we face and the signals that we see. Um, but by the same token, um we need to be the most positive people in the room as well and acknowledging the areas like this uh that are working um in hopes that that can become contagious.

SPEAKER_00 27:07

And I yeah, I've uh always reflected on you know people of faith serving in office. And um, you know, what you get when a Christian is elected and goes and serves in a uh political office, legislative body. Um what you maybe we think we're gonna get is we're gonna get Christian uh you know leadership or Christian governance or Christian policies. What we really should want to see and should see is we see a Christian who's bringing the fruit of the spirit into that place and into that process. And um I could not agree more that that was my firsthand experience in DC, is there there were a lot of um uh uh sincere believers that were um you know filled with the spirit of God that were um in that arena and they were bringing those qualities because you know the steward of God gave it gave those qualities to them. And that's um you know, first and foremost, what starts to then you know make a difference and change and and opens up, I think, those kinds of relationships that um uh that we maybe just on the outside looking in don't don't think are possible.

SPEAKER_03 28:26

And talking about institutional trust and rebuilding it, I I tend to think in in foresight, we think in terms of three horizons. So not every signal is uh on the same timeline uh as they're all equal. They're not all share the same trajectory or same power or anything. But it I look at institutional trust being rebuilt as more of an H3 thing, so like it's a weaker thing. You can find signals of it, like you mentioned Fetterman and stuff. I've thought of that my in in a way myself as he's kind of a symbol of uh a signal of maybe uh not uh perfectly perfectly, but like the idea of more of a um uh bipartisan, more of a kind of a different, um, a different, a new era of just kind of uh more civic, um, civil discourse, stuff like that. And you see little hints of that as a weak future. So I imagine like these the horizon being like H3, Horizon 3 is out there in 2040, and where we are now in this kind of uh cont this moment is institutional trust is at its all-time low. And so it it's it's peaking, and so we're in horizon one and it might last till 2030. So in between 2030 and 2040, this is just a theory, okay? This is like not, you know, prophecy or whatever, but there is that contested space where all the identity grievances and and all the political discourse and and combative uh sense is playing out to the point of exhaustion where people are fatigued of that and they want a different civic bargain than what we have right now. And so what uh I wanted to ask you guys some questions and we just kind of shift into some kind of some foresight stuff. And uh I know that you all uh have to think about the future, you know, in financial planning, and uh also Joel has done some stuff in uh actually in foresight. We've had him as a guest before talking about the futures, but like thinking as a futurist, what are some political signals pastors might be overlooking? And if you can try to place where it is on the horizon, is H1 maturing by and kind of in decline by uh by 2030? Is it uh something that that will mature in the next 10 years or the next 20?

SPEAKER_00 31:03

So as I was preparing for this conversation um and and just kind of thinking about this, uh one thought that kind of I concluded with is um this would be an H1, this is right now, is uh and maybe this is obvious and uh everybody's already knowing this, but probably the biggest uh thing that pastors need to be aware of if they aren't already, um is that just the sheer ubiquitousness and um just uh the way in which politics is in right in front of us all the time and makes its way into every possible conversation or or event, um that in and of itself is an indication of how gripped our society has become with political idolatry. Um, our society is putting just a level of trust in politics um uh that uh belongs to God. Uh and uh and and and I think that one of the just being aware that that's what's going on. Um, and you know, the people that you're pastoring and shepherding, that you're you know, discipling and baptizing, and you know, you you know they're good people, you know that they love the Lord, they're they're walking and growing in the fruit of the spirit and growing in conformity to the image of Christ. You know all of that, but you uh just also be aware that they're also living in this culture that is so gripped with political idolatry. And so um, as you think about how do I, how do I preach, how do I disciple, how do I shepherd, um, you know, I I would want to think of how what can I do, little uh and uh and and large, to just continue to encourage my church to trust more in God. Um and so, and that's I mean, that is a I do think that's an H1 signal, that's a right now. We are we are gripped with it. Tim Keller, you know, 15 years ago was you were really dropping and talking about this idea of political idolatry, and and at that time when he said it, it was probably an H3, and now we're in that that that future that he was talking about. And so if we're gonna try to, you know, uh plan for alternate futures and lead towards them, um you know, I I I would really begin encouraging and and leading by example and and and discipling people to just put a little more trust in God today because you know, in that window of time between 2030, 2040, um you know, I I I also do think that this this you know institutional trust cycle is gonna be in a it's gonna be in a different stage too, of either our institutions are gone. I don't believe that, or um, it's gonna be in a stage of of being rebuilt. And biblically, um I mean uh trust in institutions can grow healthily if uh you know the the church is also putting a a right priority in their trust in God.

SPEAKER_04 34:20

Yeah, I I mean I would just add, um, you know, I think that idolatry would lead some people to want to try to establish a theocracy in in America. I don't believe we're set up for that. I'm certainly not in favor of that. Um I believe that you need to keep um, well, I mean, it was ordained in in Israel that you would keep uh, you know, the government and the church separate from there. Now, you know, uh obviously I think if you read um, I'm more concerned about the government's influence upon the church than I'm ever concerned. I mean, we need the church's influence upon government. Uh that's part of the problem. But by the same token, you know, our legislatures and our government is really a reflection of our society. And so, you know, everybody needs to be cleaning their own backyard and their own back porch. And then um that, you know, to me, I've always viewed this as it's not gonna be a top-down approach, it's gonna be a bottom-up. Uh now, some some additional challenges that that I would see that I think we need to plan for that are both going to be economic um as well as uh uh potentially political because they will be politicized, is just as we're transitioning, um, you know, we we've heard the term deja vu before, as in, you know, uh this has happened before, but I think we also need to take into account we could be approaching an age which is a vuja day, which is this hasn't happened before. And when we start talking about the implementation of artificial intelligence, uh, when we look at uh, you know, uh that component, the demand that that's going to place upon resources, things of that nature, um, inflation concerns are gonna be really big. And I think churches and pastors need to be uh willing and able to try to help meet those needs physically. Uh, because I think uh over the next five, 10 years, that's gonna continue to be a problem and an issue. No, it'll also be politicized, and we'll see how you know the different parties are able to message their way into or out of that. Um then we look again at the the um the conflict that's always gonna be in the Middle East, I think, uh for as long uh as as we're living and breathing upon this earth, uh, that's going to create different uh shocks and things of that nature, lots of uncertainty. Uh China's a wild card in this, and I'm not so I'm not as much concerned about China and their you know military prowess as I am for they seem to kind of be taking um a Sun Tzu approach uh to war of you know conquering your your enemy um from within. And uh they're certainly influencing us through social media, uh targeting our children. Um we've got a deteriorate, they they they seek to deteriorate uh competitors, uh uh they they seek to intimidate places like Taiwan, um uh uh and you know try to take over without outright military conflict. Those are kind of things that you know, why they're global, I think that uh people need to be prepared for because it circles back to everything becomes local and it's going to impact local people and they're gonna have needs that are gonna be met. And I think if you're gonna do forecast, you really need to be in a position where your your um church is gonna be there to meet the needs of the community. And those would be some maybe outside the box things that I would just kind of throw out there that uh that's that's how you're gonna be able to reach people is in those situations because um you know uh a crisis can become an opportunity, and we'll certainly be facing crises in the future. But a lot I see a lot of that coming down the pike um uh in the fact that people are gonna be facing, you know, a higher cost for housing. They're gonna be facing a higher cost uh for food, things of that nature. Uh uh what's going on in the Middle East right now, um, we're gonna begin to feel the impact of not having fertilizer and stuff like that over the next six to 18 months. And so that's gonna run the likelihood of challenging food supplies globally.

SPEAKER_03 38:59

Yeah, you're uh you're really touching on a lot of topics that are early signals that people need to be tracking. And one thing that came to my thought was uh maybe we haven't really considered this. Um, you know, going back a couple of cycles of a couple horizons is how uh in what you see this talk about in foresight with a lot of uh secular foresight folks is um decolonization, uh equity and social governance, uh how much Marxism has been embedded into so much of what we do, everything from environmentalism to uh intersectionality, and um, and then this whole argument of post-capitalism. These are topics, I think that uh because uh it it it sounds far-fetched to think that they would that it would be so pervasive, but it really um is kind of the framework that people are uh a lot a lot of secular leaders are using. And um we haven't really done a good job of painting any other kind of a picture, you know, uh because we're so uh uh over focused on the next election and on winning, you know, the midterms or winning, you know, the the presidential, and then we think that they're everything you know, everything's gonna align together. Um, but really it it goes back to people like us, like when I when I worked with you, Dave, on uh some political stuff. I noticed, you know, if you're a a state uh a rep in the Congress that you only have like a two three or four month window before you start campaigning for your next uh you know, your next campaign if you you know you're only gonna run for you know uh Congress. So um do you you guys think that the Marxism uh is that a is that something that people are overlooking or overreacting to?

SPEAKER_00 40:54

Probably both. Um I mean I I I some of the expressions of it, you know, um um with kind of the and I'm not using this word uh uh other than just to I identify what might be recognizable, but kind of the woke movement. Um one of the things that I I came out of the last presidential election seemed to be um a repudiation of how far that was going. So um uh so I you know, I you know, it I I I feel as though that there you you could look at what we as a country and society have gone through and say, yeah, we you know we recognize it, we saw it, we we didn't um you know, we weren't um minimizing overlooking it and and and felt like that needed to go a different direction. And and it did. Um and so then we can make the mistake of thinking, okay, well, we solved that problem with the last election um and and not really uh pay attention to to where uh what is maybe insidious about some of um that philosophy um is is still kind of working its way through. At the same time, um it's a great talking point to get people riled up. You know, it's a great it's a great political rhetoric point that isn't necessarily um committing you to uh you you know, a politician who's campaigning on it is not necessarily committing themselves to any particular position um because they it it's just a good way to get people riled up and they don't necessarily have to do anything about it. And I think that we can fall susceptible to that as well.

SPEAKER_04 42:48

Marxism, communism, socialism, however you want to phrase it, is very appealing on the surface uh until you begin to drill down. Um and and yet uh there's yet to be a situation in which that utopia existed where people wound up being better off and uh equal sharing of misery, as uh Churchill put it. And I found it interesting, you know, that uh uh in New York they're not wanting to expand the grid, they're not f wanting to find ways to um uh enhance the grid. And yet the alternative from the socialist mayor was to tell everybody to ration and you know set their thermostats at 78. Yet, you know, I wonder if the 78 was set at Madison Square Garden during a certain celebrity uh wedding. Uh I doubt it. Uh that would have been intolerable. Um, same thing I doubt if it was at City Hall. And so, you know, there there's uh to me, uh the Marxists always want to try to tell. People how to live their lives. They think they know better. And they think that they want to control what choices people make because they're intellectually and morally superior. So they're trying to prop themselves up. And so I think hopefully I do think that pastors need to address because sometimes it'll be portrayed that, well, Jesus was a communist. It'll be portrayed that the the early church was was communist. And they bring up Ananias and Sapphira and how you know they sold their their um their property and then you know we're supposed to give it to the church. They didn't give all of it to the church. And yet by the same token, the the biggest difference is, you know, free will versus compulsory. With communism, it's compulsory. You have no choice. Whereas um anything that uh God is referencing, it's always a free will offering. Uh he basically I think it's it's uh very much a theme all the way through that he didn't want the gift if it wasn't free will, if it was begrudging. So that's the biggest difference between I think Christianity and communism socialism. And I I hope that pastors can begin to acknowledge that um and understand uh because you do have to be engaged in society, you can't just stick your head in the sand and ignore it. Um, otherwise we'll we're gonna be doomed to failure, but we've got to do a better job of educating uh church members and constituents about the perils and such.

SPEAKER_00 45:45

Well, and another uh problem with this the socialist view is it it looks at history as cyclical and and it looks at history is so we you know the underlying idea is we can build this this utopia here and and it'll just persist on because history is cyclical and we can create this great society utopia here, whereas a biblical view is that history is linear and it has a beginning and it has an end, and and we are marching towards that end. And you know, we are to, as Jeremiah said, seek the welfare of the city in which we're in. We are to we are to to work to build a greater uh city today, always with the understanding that ultimately um uh we will fall short and Jesus himself will open the scrolls and bring his history to an end, and this city will be gone and God himself will create the new city that is that perfect city. And so um, you know, part of the underlying uh flaw of socialism is is it's is it's missing that biblical truth and narrative and story of where we're going that we begin to think that we're we can do it here on earth, and that's hubris and that's the tower of Babel. I wanted to also ask David a question, kind of with his background in finance, because I think part of the uh appeal of socialistic ideas or communistic ideas or statist ideas um is is growing up in a younger generation that um is uh uh insecure about the sense of agency they have and the ability to to accomplish themselves uh you know financially uh or uh what what they want to do. You're hearing it rhetorically used as the American dream is out of reach. And you know, when I um you know bought my first house, I think my interest rate was around, you know, you know six percent, um, you know, bought my second house was around six percent, refinanced during COVID. Now I'm down to like, you know, you know, two and a half, three percent. And you know, I'm of this micro generation that really, you know, came into um homeownership with this extraordinarily low interest rates. And um, and I'm kind of putting, I'm conflating together this uh conversation about maybe why younger people are are are leaning towards more socialist ideas is because they don't feel that they're gonna be able to be successful um uh in their own autonomy to go and and pursue that. And then you look at, okay, now let's let's I'm curious, David, if as you project out, you know, 10 years from now, 15 years from now, where you know, kind of the the norm expectation for where interest rates are gonna be to then how do we help people plan around that future of of what it it it's gonna cost to to borrow money to be able to kind of maybe um encourage and equip people to to break through the idea of the socialist, I can't do it, but no, you can do it. Yes, it's not gonna be a 2% interest rate, but is am I making sense in what I'm asking?

SPEAKER_04 49:06

Yeah, yeah, you know, I I think um uh there was a period of time where interest rates were artificially low, subsidized by the government. I think we'll be back to more normative rates, possibly slightly higher than that. Um, my opinion also, and and this will be a uh a uh a big determinant of that, is while the the Federal Reserve likes to target 2% inflation rates, I feel like 3% is probably gonna have to be the norm moving forward. Um, it's gonna be the new normal for at least the next 10 years or so as we have this build out because there's just gonna be so much demand for resources. Um I I think the the main component that I would say um is if your outgo exceeds your income, then your upkeep's gonna become your downfall. That can be applied to individuals, it also needs to be applied to governments uh as well. Um, but but that stated, it's always amazing to me. Uh the average physician um today's day and time outspends their income by 25%. And yet um I I'm amazed at uh uh a week and a half ago, I I was visiting with uh a gentleman who's an uh a legal immigrant uh who works an hourly wage. And uh he had uh mid he had he had $150,000 um um that was on deposit. And um he just saved it gradually by pinching his pennies and just following what I just said. And so I I think right now young people tend to um be a little impatient. Um I didn't buy my first house until I was 28. Um, and yet you're talking to people feeling like, well, hey, at 22 I need to be buying my first home. Well, not necessarily because you need to be able to afford it. And you also not only you need to be able to afford the mortgage, you also need to be able to afford the maintenance that you upkeep, upkeep. Yeah. Um then understanding that your first home isn't going to be as nice as the home that your parents live in. Um but some of the signals behind that, um, in the areas where we have rent control, um, in the areas where they place limitations on that, that's actually the areas where your rents and cost of living is the highest. And yet where you have free market um uh options and alternatives, that's the the situation in which it's lower. And so and we circle back again to um uh the fact that ultimately if we have less control and we have you know more freedom, uh then in that setting that's always going to work best for people. And that's what I would just kind of I realize that's kind of a long-winded way of going about answering your question, Joel. But that's kind of my perspective on how this gets better. Um, and then from there, um uh just exposing to people how the fact that there's never been a situation in which this has worked. And the response you always get winds up being, well, that's because I haven't done it. And uh obviously there's no humility involved in that.

SPEAKER_00 52:34

Well, and hey, the I bought my first house, the pastor that I was working for and discipling me, he uh taught me to change brakes and do drywall. So that's that's the practical thing a church can do.

SPEAKER_03 52:46

Absolutely. Whenever we do the Insight Futures Labs, uh the ministry leaders that are in there, they usually brainstorm a bunch of different signals across uh the different categories social, technological, economic, environmental, political, educational, spiritual. And one of the things that always comes up is uh Social Security austerity, uh when Social Security is supposed to be coming insolvent, and there's that concern about that. But then there's also this kind of claim for like different things like you uh uh universal basic income, reparations, and these kind of things, like I these things can't work together. What where do you see like as we get toward this, you know, 2040, 2030, 2040 period, what are the biggest contested factors on on that scale? Because we're gonna have to like if we're gonna have this discussion about after capitalism and you know the I uh they don't always mean market uh uh socialism, they mean circular economies because of uh ecology and stuff like that. So I'm just trying to where do you see Social Security and and all that stuff going? And is UBI really going to be a thing from what you're looking at, what you're tracking?

SPEAKER_04 54:07

Social Security, um favorite Churchill quote Americans always make the right decision when it's their last possible option. Um, and so there's some things that can be fixed on Social Security if you continue to um demographically uh move out the 100% retirement age, kind of like they've been uh from that perspective. If you begin to pursue, um, and that's one of the things about the Trump accounts uh for kids, I think they're trying to set the stage to allow for um uh uh funds to be invested in the market, uh, not dissimilar from, I think a model would be the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, which is one of the largest investment funds in the world. And the average Norwegian has uh, I want to say somewhere in the neighborhood of $300,000 that's that's in that fund that's been set up. And so those would be good alternatives to um uh what you're referencing. Um, when we talk about reparations, I think we got to point out the fact that uh you know, if you're gonna tell talk about reparations from the 17s and 1800s, well, what about reparations to the people that are being enslaved today by Muslims uh across the country? What about the fact of all the, you know, it wasn't just a black problem. Uh in fact, most of the um uh Africans that were enslaved back during that time were enslaved and sold by fellow Africans um and then brought in. But by the same token, uh you know, the Marine Corps uh song from the Halls of Montezuma to the shores of Triple E. Why'd they get why did we go to uh it was to take on the and defeat the Barbary Coast pirates who kept uh taking over our ships and enslaving our our sailors and selling them into slavery? So um it's not just a white black problem, um, it's a global problem and it still exists. And so but by the same token, we forget the the fact that what uh the Union sacrificed over 600,000 lives um civil war in order to um um uh give those people uh that's a pretty big reparation.

SPEAKER_03 56:31

I think uh, you know, and I was more I was more thinking in terms of economic impact because these different kinds of big spending kind of ideas, the universal basic income, the idea that everybody's gonna have a salary and be on the dole for the government, and you know, everybody promising all these big things, and yet we we're not really paying our bills. So uh that's I think that's one of the like uh the idea of reparations and and these other things, it would it would just exacerbate the identity conflict in H2 if we did that. And it would result in an H H3 that has ready for all that to be over, and all this identity signaling, all this um expressive individualism, and then trying to figure out intersectionally who's the the most offended person is going to strain that system, uh and then that's going to lead to something else, uh a different, a different social order. Uh I wanted to ask Matt, Matt's got a pastoral background. What's a listening to this, what are what are some questions that are coming to your mind as we've had this conversation?

SPEAKER_01 57:50

And and from a pastor's perspective. Um I I think it got a lot of wisdom there about uh the the fact that you know we're we have our members who are politically active on Facebook, and how do you react to that? Uh how do you nuance uh the culture uh as a pastor without totally tearing up the church, knowing that you've got uh believe it or not, there are some progressives uh in the church and uh and trying to um navigate relationships with different people. The other question that comes to mind is I'm looking at it because it it seems like and we talked about this some, but I've I don't believe I've ever seen the level of vulgarity on both sides. And how does a pastor uh address that? You can't watch the news without having a filter on it, you know, and just saying, well, get the kids out of the room because this is about to start. Somebody's gonna say something.

SPEAKER_03 58:59

They really have taken the gloves off on the F bomb and all kinds of things that you would just blush at. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 59:08

Not even I I know that in a former church where I was, you know, we we have and still have at that church, I'm not too far away from it right now, and I've moved on and uh working for a convention, but uh two guys that have been barbing each other for years, and it's been it's really stymied, I believe, the church growth because of the political culture in there, and so and I I know I'm not the only pastor who has witnessed that in in their congregation, and so and and I agree, it's just gonna take a violent work of the Holy Spirit to get this whole political idolatry figured out, but how could we cultivate an atmosphere where Yeah, and one thing we can do as ministry leaders is not get into that, not engage in that, not and then call it out.

SPEAKER_03 1:00:01

One uh one thing that uh I is occurring to me as we kind of wrap here is um I've noticed people, not just pastors, anybody, they see they see a headline and then they they start they start applying it and extrapolating it and expanding it and building on it. The best thing you can do, the best lesson you can do if you want to be a futures thinker, if you want to analyze the signals, is you've got to slow down. You cannot just start shooting from the hip and ask your question is this a signal? Is this a one-off? Is it connected to other things? Is there some kind of trajectory that it's connected to? Is it is it a signal? Is it a trend? You know, a collection of signals together? Is it a driver? Is it something that is unavoidable? It's just moving forward and you can't stop it, but you can navigate it. Um, what is the narrative? Are you buying into a narrative? Or is there an embedded um uh value presented as a fact? If you slow down, you start seeing those things, you start seeing what is the probability that it will impact your church. What yeah uh what is the ministry impact that it might have? If you slow down, then you don't get all crazy uh and and start becoming a conspiracy person. God's in control. And what we're trying to do as ministry leaders who are foresight thinkers is to discern the times and understand what the church should do. So we of all people in ministry ought to be able to step back and to consider, you know, the historical patterns that are there, the quality of the signal, what horizon it's on, um, what kind of legitimacy is there. Any any thoughts on that, guys, but as we as we wrap up?

SPEAKER_00 1:02:08

I have great sympathy, as I said before, for pastors and where they're sitting in this moment because on the one hand, I mean they sit in this this tension. On the one hand, um you don't want to be derailed uh and commenting on uh things that are happening um in politics or in current events or in the you don't want to just be commenting on that stuff uh and it take you away from what God has already impressed upon you should be the things that you are teaching and preaching, particularly preaching. And and I think that this is an important point because part of your work is in the dialogue and discipleship and and and walking alongside your people. And then there's part of your your ministry, which is that that pulpit, that Sunday morning preaching. And that's where a lot of the focus gets. And so they sit in this tension where you you don't don't want to get derailed from what God has already led you to be preaching, uh, whether you're an expository, you know, going through a book of Bible or you're in some sort of series, you at the same time, you don't want to also uh appear as though you are terrified or uh afraid to talk about things. And that's it, which is the the indictment from the other side. If they don't talk about something and well, you know, one I mean, we should have courage in the in the church. And I and they're in a tough spot. And so um uh I I have a great appreciation for where they sit. My encouragement is pray. Um I I believe this for eight years. My ministry was praying for leaders. So begin uh if you're gonna engage in politics and begin leading your people, start actually leading them to pray for the people that are in leadership in their community, in their schools, uh, in their school boards, school districts, in their uh uh city councils, in the state legislature. I mean, start by just modeling prayer for people. And that's now you are you're as engaged as you can be, you know, and you're doing it in a way that you know is is faithful and biblical. Um, and also pray about it when when when you've when something comes along uh in in uh in in a campaign season, it's and going to uh in a current event or a news story or political rhetoric, if something comes along um and and you know there's a prompting, like maybe I should say something, definitely pray about that. And I I I I find that there's you know, when the Lord's really leading you, there's gonna be a way that is not you know shoehorning this into what you're already doing, but that you you you may find, okay, I am I am supposed to actually address this thing because you know what it is it's right here in in in in 2 Timothy when we're going through 2 Timothy. You know, I mean it's and God will bring trust God to do that. Um, but there there is that tension that they sit in. Um, and so um, you know, I I practically speaking, pray. Um lead your people to pray and pray about how to address those things. Um, because uh uh and then and then if ever you can let it be something that just gets woven into how the Lord's already leading you to lead the church. Um uh and then when you talk about the vulgarity in our culture, because it is awful. Um, my kids, I think before we start recording, I told you what we just did, you know, they did a musical theater one week camp and they just did the music man. And so I mean, if you go back and actually like what you know, read that script and you realize just how utterly um far beyond those days we are, and you know, the the the the swear words that they were using, it's hilarious. Um, and yet it's so sad when you realize where we are, and I do think that it is a very much. A horrible um legacy of the last eight years of our political rhetoric that we've drifted there. But I man, I go back to growing up. Yeah. But I go back to something my grandmother in Park Hills, Missouri, said to me uh my whole life growing up, which is just because the world says it's right doesn't make it right. And there's there's nothing wrong with just saying that to your people. Just because the world says it's right doesn't make it right. Um and we don't have to get all in a huff and righteous indignation against people that are are are doing you know, there's sin in the world and we know that, but just because it the world says it's right doesn't make it right, and it's okay to to remember that. Um and then I last thing I just kind of you know w want to share too as we look about political signals is remember that um the Trump era is coming to an end. Um and you know, I just started we had originally planned to record this before the primary in Oklahoma, and because we had to reschedule, and I think it's kind of nice that we recorded after because a lot of the primaries took place. And you know, I I I'm looking at what's what's happening at post primaries, and and you you you can already see a shift in campaigns. You can already see a shift in um uh what you know legislators and uh members of Congress who who were on one side or the other of the Trump endorsement are doing. And and and I'm I'm looking at whether it's the you know, the legal weaponization fund or the congressional approval of war powers or um you know any any motivation from Congress to to respond to the Supreme Court decision on birthright citizenship. I think we can see on the other side of these primaries that the popular support for the president isn't necessarily translating into uh legislative support for the policy agenda of the administration. And we don't know how all that's gonna work itself out, but our our political system um is is going to begin to grapple with a post-Trump era. And uh a lot of those uh issues that David was mentioning are absolutely um going to be addressed in our political process, and it's hard to envision today how that's going to look because we are still kind of coming out of this Trump moment. Um and and so um uh you know, as I look to the the next eight years and twelve years, um I I think you can have, as Chris, you said, slow down and have some humility and and wait and see because we we don't know how the political um apparatus is gonna is gonna adjust to a post-Trump era and and begin to voice um both uh you know from a platform perspective in a campaign as well as in a you know deliberative you know legislative policy uh formation way to begin to discuss these issues. And I'll just say I do think that AI makes UBI um something that it it may be possible.

SPEAKER_03 1:09:30

Okay. Well, Dave, bring us home.

SPEAKER_04 1:09:34

Well, you know, I I remember hearing uh and this this is gonna be about um Dietrich Bontoffer uh when we talk about you know pastoral engagement and the political process and the struggle that he went through uh with what was going on in uh Germany with Hitler. And this is not documented in the Eric Matax's biography, but there was a Lutheran pastor out of Houston by the name of uh Lawrence White that told this story about how Hitler, after Hitler came to power, the Lutheran church was heavily subsidized by the um German government. And so you have this atheist that is uh uh come into power, and all the Lutheran clergy were concerned about was well, are we still going to be subsidized? And so they arranged a meeting with Hitler for that. And uh as the story goes, that was the soul talk topic of conversation. And Bonhoeff went to it and becoming frustrated with the process, forced his way to the front and got in front of Hitler and said, Hitler, I'm not concerned about continuing subsidies, I'm concerned about the soul of Germany. And the Lutheran pastors became uh very concerned that he was going to, you know, disrupt what they were trying to do, and they began to push him away. And as legend would have it, Hitler said, Ah, the soul of Germany, you can leave that to me. And so um as uh it's easy for me to say I'm not a pastor. Um what I would just urge pastors to do is speak to the art and don't you know. Sometimes I think that we've got Christians and we've got pastors that like the taste of blood in their mouth and they have a moder martyr syndrome and they walk into something looking for a fight. Um that that's not biblical, that's not right. But by the same token, if you stand up and speak the truth like what Bonhoffer does, don't run from the circumstances. And uh sometimes I feel like pastors are maybe overly concerned with causing controversy in the church by speaking the truth when in fact maybe that ought that that that's what needs to happen. Uh the Apostle Paul, you know, and I think you can summarize that when he preached they either had revival or they had a riot. Well, I don't think he went into any of those situations to start a riot. It just happened because the world was opposed to his viewpoint, and that's one thing that we've got to accept um with where we are, is the world's gonna hate us. So I guess I would just close with that uh part to that aspect on on a viewpoint of it is again in the world but not of the world. And um just step forward and be courageous. And uh uh I d as I say that I'm looking at my picture in this uh on this phone and saying that to myself.

SPEAKER_03 1:12:52

Amen. Amen.

SPEAKER_00 1:12:53

I've worn a quarrelsome person once, worn them a second time, then have nothing more to do with them.

SPEAKER_03 1:12:59

Yeah. Well, gentlemen, this has been good. Uh learned a lot from you guys and uh as I always do when we when I mooch a coffee off of you. But I I I appreciate your time and and everything. I I take away this uh you know, you gotta really love people, all people, and let God take that and use that um and uh break your heart for them, whether they're right or wrong. Christ died for sinners and um died for us while we were still sinners. Because we still are. So God bless you guys. Thank you again for joining us. Matt, do you have any final words? That's great.

SPEAKER_01 1:13:45

Uh this was very helpful. Thanks. Yeah, thank you.

SPEAKER_00 1:13:49

Thank you, Matt. Thank you, Chris. All right, bye.

SPEAKER_02 1:14:18

Another Monday, in a one out of office chair, maps on the wall, and a thousand whispered prayers. Trying to read tomorrow without news and today's joy's church. Everybody set up here on the six-man screen. Every little headline's a game today, but every headline ain't a snake, but some are just the noise for me.