Why winters are riskier in a warmer world

🌫️ Good news: London’s Ultra Low Emissions Zone cut pollution in half and brought the city into legal air quality compliance 184 years earlier than forecast, proving that climate policy is health policy.

❄️ Not so good news: While average snowfall is declining in many places, a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture: which can mean heavier snow and more dangerous winter extremes where temps stay below freezing. Climate change isn’t eliminating winter; in some places, it’s intensifying it.

🤝 What you can do: One of the most effective climate actions individuals can take is joining a climate group. Collective action reminds us we're not alone, and drives systemic change.

Find Manuel and Pascal's article here.

Find my list of climate action organizations here.

Thank you to Anne Cloud with ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Voice Over for the Planet⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for narrating this edition of Talking Climate. 

Music by Bradley Myer.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.talkingclimate.ca

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:04

Welcome to Talking Climate with Catherine Hayho. Each episode, we explore how climate change is affecting the people, places, and things we love, and what we can do to make a difference. From science to solutions and stories that inspire, you're in the right place for real talk about real change. In the last two editions of this newsletter, I mentioned how sports and the Winter Olympics both impact and are impacted by climate change. This week I have an update from talking climate reader Manuel Souter, who wrote in to share a very relevant research study he and his colleague Pascal Stegman have done on this topic. International sports can produce a lot of emissions, and yet people involved in them often make excuses for climate inaction in sports. Pascal and Manuel interviewed 28 European elite athletes and sports federation employees to better understand why. They identified five main narratives. The people they interviewed would blame others, downplay the urgency of the problem, claim the system can't change, focus only on the downsides of climate action, and or simply say they didn't have the resources to act. Sound familiar? I bet we've all heard those justifications. The researchers conclude with recommendations for how to turn this tide, including encouraging narratives that highlight collective responsibility rather than personal solutions. For more, I highly recommend giving their article a read yourself, which you can find linked in the show notes. Many scientific articles are behind journal paywalls, but this one is open access, which means the authors had to pay extra, yes, scientists have to pay journals to publish their papers to make it open for everyone to read. Thank you, Manuel and Pascal. This week we're talking about clean air winds, how warmer winters are riskier, and why to join a climate group. Let's dive in. Good news. Air quality in London, England has always been a concern. In fact, the very first air quality legislation was enacted by King Edward I. In 1307, he issued a royal proclamation stating that the burning of sea coal within the city limits was prohibited due to the intolerable smell which diffuses itself throughout the neighboring places, and the air is greatly infected to the annoyance of the magnates, citizens, and others there dwelling, and to the injury of their bodily health. The penalty? Hefty fines, destruction of furnaces, and even death. Despite this early effort, London's air quality remained at dangerous levels for many centuries. It began to decline at the turn of the 20th century, but it wasn't until 1952 that a great smog event, responsible for thousands of deaths, finally led to the Clean Air Act of 1956. Even still, the city's air quality regularly exceeded legal limits, and researchers at King's College, London, forecast that it would take 193 years to bring London's air quality within legal limits. Until recently, what changed? In 2019, London Mayor Sadiq Khan introduced the ultra-low emission zone in central London, requiring noncompliant vehicles to pay a£12.50 daily fee to reduce nitrogen dioxide pollution and improve air quality. In 2023, he expanded the ULES to include all 32 London boroughs, making it the world's largest clean air zone. Thanks to the ULES, London Air complied with legal limits in 2025, a full 184 years earlier than forecast. Since the introduction of the ULES, nitrogen dioxide levels in central London have halved, and millions of Londoners are breathing cleaner air, Mayor Kahn said. It also supports a broader shift towards green and sustainable transport, with growing investment in active travel and zero emission buses. Climate action in London is not just environmental, it's a public health emergency and a social justice issue, too. While London's air quality still has room to improve, this system has been a great success. Air pollution causes an absolute myriad of health impacts, including more than 8 million deaths worldwide each year. So this clean air zone is a huge win for one of the world's biggest cities. If the planet's warming, shouldn't we see less snow? Shouldn't we be getting a break from winter dangers such as avalanches and massive snowstorms? Unfortunately, depending on where we live, the answer can be no. In fact, in some places, climate change is increasing these risks. It's true that in a warmer world, more precipitation is falling as rain and less as snow on average. The average snow line is moving upward and poleward, and glaciers are melting. Many mountain areas are experiencing both long-term declines in snow as well as increasing risk of snow droughts, particularly early in the season, the western U.S. this year and the Alps three years ago. In a warmer world, however, the atmosphere also holds more moisture. And this means that when it's below freezing, there can be more snow, not less. Here are three places that's happening. On the west coast of North America, atmospheric rivers stream in from the Pacific. When they hit the coastal mountains, they rise, dumping massive amounts of precipitation. As climate changes and the ocean warms, these naturally occurring features are strengthening and picking up more moisture than ever. This is a factor in why California's Sierra Nevada Mountains has seen extremely heavy snowfall events this year. At elevations where temperatures remain below freezing, heavy snowfall can accumulate rapidly. This rapid loading of slopes increases avalanche risk, particularly when new snow overlies weaker layers, the exact conditions that led to the devastating avalanche that happened in the Sierra Nevada last month, the deadliest in modern California history. In the Great Lakes region, downwind cities like Buffalo can get massive amounts of lake effect snow, when frigid air sweeps across lakes that are still relatively warm and ice-free. This creates powerful snow bands capable of dropping several inches or up to 10 centimeters in a single hour. As lakes warm and ice cover decreases, the number of days when it's still cold enough to snow but not cold enough for the lakes to freeze have been going up, increasing lake effect snow for now. Then, on the east coast of North America, there's a particular type of winter storm that comes in from the ocean, known locally as a nor'easter, and a bomb cyclone elsewhere. Last week, Nor'easter Hernando dumped more than two feet of snow across parts of Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. Here too, warmer ocean temperatures are strengthening these storms as well as increasing the amount of water vapor, they can turn into record snowfall. In short, climate change isn't eliminating winter. In fact, in some places, it's intensifying its most dangerous and damaging extremes. What you can do. If you're feeling overwhelmed by global warming, you're truly not alone. Climate change is such a vast global challenge that many people share the same sense of uncertainty, wanting to help, but unsure where to begin. Joining a climate action group is one of the most effective ways we can turn concern into impact while simultaneously helping us feel more connected to others and aware of how many others care too. Social science research consistently shows that collective action is one of the most effective ways individuals can help drive meaningful climate progress. Don't know where to start? On Blue Sky, I've created a starter pack of national and global climate action organizations, and a second starter pack featuring the local, city and country chapters. I also have a list of organizations on my website by category, including groups for parents, grandparents, and young people, nature lovers, athletes, artists, and people of faith. So this week, your to-do is this find a group and join it. Sign up for their email list, follow them on social media, and find out if they have events online or in your area that you can attend. Then tell someone you've joined a climate group and encourage them to do the same. Together we can build collective strength and drive the systemic change we need. For more resources, links, and actions you can take, check out the full newsletter at www.talkingclimate.ca. Don't underestimate your voice. Start a conversation and see where it leads.