Back to Lay 20 Ticks Profit - Horse Racing Strategy Betfair Trading

Can a simple 20-tick Back to Lay strategy still work in horse racing trading?

In this video and podcast, I break down the idea behind using a fixed 20-tick profit target when trading horse racing on Betfair. You will see why this approach appeals to so many traders, what makes a good Back to Lay setup, and where this strategy can go wrong if you are not careful.

We also look at the importance of rules, discipline, and testing your results so you are not just guessing. Because with horse racing trading, the goal is not to chase random trades. The goal is to find a repeatable edge you can trust.

If you want to speed up your testing and find out what actually works, LightSpeed Stats can help you analyse your results fast.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Hello, welcome to another video from lightspeedstat.com. Today we're going to look at a back-to-lay strategy specifically looking for 20 ticks. So I'm going to go through that right now. Guys, if you haven't signed up to lightspeedstats.com to see this software, to get this software, to be able to back test your horse racing strategies as I'm about to do in this video, then why not? Go and do it, lightspeedstats.com. Go over and sign up. The other thing, if you're a football member, we do offer a big discount and because obviously you're already paying for football. So if you're a football member, just email us info at lightspeedstats.com or info at lights at Betfair Trading Community.com, our sister site for football. So let's get into it today because I want to crack on because this is actually a really interesting strategy. It's quite a roller coaster ride of a strategy, actually, when you look at the results. But it is a back to late 20 tick strategy. Now, this is one of the strategies that is on our presets. So normally when you come to the strategy builder page, this is what you'll see. You obviously won't see the same strategies because this is my list, you'll have your own list. But what you can do is if you click on the preset, we have at the moment five strategies on here which you all can just straight off access. Okay, on top of the ones that we share with you when you join and you fill in your form of which kind of strategy will suit you. But yeah, you've got access to these right off the bat. And one of the good things here is that obviously you've got the back testing, so you can test these strategies and see if they're still performing well. We're looking at one today that was created a year and a half ago, obviously, off the back of performing quite well in the back testing, and but it's interesting because this strategy hasn't been changed, hasn't been tweaked since then. So that's a lot of data that you've got in forward testing, a lot of things that suggest hey, this strategy may actually be a decent one to look at. So this is the strategy. I've selected it here as you can see. Or it will be selected automatically for you. Um, but then when you click on that little uh dot there, the blue dot, or you can just click on the horse selection rules below when you scroll down, this will come up, and you can actually see um what the strategy is looking for. And interestingly, it's the same setup as the Dobb strategy in theory of it's looking for horses that have daubed essentially, their prices come in um twice. Sorry, that's my phone. The price has come in to twice as short as it was. Um, and then if you click this, you kind of have to double-click it because it's already active. You click this little clock, you can see what it's looking at, and it's looking at 60% of the last 10 runs. Okay, and again, you have to worry too much about this stuff if you don't fully understand it, but it's good to look at some of these preset assets as to what they're doing and how they're doing it. Um, and then it looks at certain courses, runners is another one it's looking at here, horse age, um, and then it looks at runs uh between 51 and 300. Okay, um, so that's really interesting, right? That's the selections, that's essentially what the criteria for this strategy is. Then when you go to the next thing, which is the betting rules, we can see that we're backing horses between 15 and 25 in odds. 10 minutes before official race and official race start. Okay, so what's interesting there is you're not having to try and guess what time you're entering this trade. You are entering, you know, say the race starts at 2.15, you are entering this trade at 2.05 or up until 2.15 if the horse qualifies and hits the entry price and it fits the other criteria you've got, obviously. Um, and then closing our trade, very simple one here. You're laying at 20 ticks. I'll show you how to do that. So when you get to exit target on here, if you want to select that yourself, you don't have to, obviously, this is a preset strategy, it's already been made. Um, but you can see you'd select ticks, then you select 20, and then um there isn't a stop loss on this one. And so after that, you look at build your bank. We're looking here at bank of £100, £1, flat stakes, very simple. Um, and commission 2% and exit type is hedge because we are exiting the trade. Um, now customising results. I've talked about this before, but in case you haven't watched the other videos, I'll just go very quickly. This is where you can select what you look at. The only thing we're looking at here is month, but you could look at year, you could look at country course, direction going, etc. You could look at these other factors, and the reason you might want to do that with this is I think this is a strategy that might be right for a little tweak or two to improve it because it is a bit of a roller coaster, as I'm about to show you. Um, so after all that, you can click this little green button, and I'm in the way a tiny bit here, aren't I? And and run the strategy, and when you do that, then it runs the results through for you. It will show you the strategy result. Okay, so here are the results to £1. Stakes, £381 profit, really, really good, right? Um, especially on a strategy where you're not, you know, we're only looking at £1. stakes here. Imagine if this was £10 stakes, £50 stakes, whatever. Um ROI 4.29%, Strato 54%, and expected value um £5. So per trade, which is interesting. But what I want to really focus on here is the snake graph because we're only looking at the month here, and so this graph is huge. You can see that when this strategy was developed, so let's say it was like mid-2023, it was on around £405, um, starting from £100 banks, around £300 points up, and since then it's made about 80 points. Okay, so the forward testing has been profitable, although obviously not as profitable as that initial bounce. Is it because of the COVID effect? Is it who knows? But it's interesting that it's still made a decent profit in that time. As you can see, there has been some ups and downs in this graph. So you can see it's one of those. And this is why I think this might be a strategy that's right for a tweak or two. There might be something like race type, there might be something like going, there might be something really obvious you could look and tweak for this strategy to improve it. Um, but I'll leave that to you guys because I've done a lot of videos on how you can do that, and I've shown you about customizing your results right there. So why not use this strategy? Why not save it in your filters, run it through a couple of and look at some different results and see? Ah, okay, I can see it doesn't do well on all weather, for example, um, and use that. But I'm just giving you ideas. I like to kind of spark your creative genius. Some of the ideas and strategies you guys come up with are incredible because you're often showing me and telling me about them. Um, and at the bottom here you'll see um an actual breakdown statistically and all the figures and words that you need there, even looking at the individual trades themselves and what happens. Again, I think um obviously, because of the prices you're getting, um, it's not too bad. Uh, you don't have to put you again, if you're backing at 15, you're not gonna be putting huge amounts on. You also got to be aware that when you're scaling a strategy like this, you're probably not gonna be able to put huge amounts on at 23, for example, quite a high price. Um, so yeah, just keep that in mind. Upcoming qualifiers, again, what's cool here is this will show you which horses might qualify for this strategy today. The reason I say might is you we don't know the price yet, so we obviously don't know what the prices of these horses are going to be before the race. But what's interesting is that if they hit your price target, which we know is between odds of 15 and 25 before the off, 10 minutes before the off to the official race start, then these horses will qualify. And as you can see, we have quite a few potentials for today. Um, there's even a few more on the next page. Look at that. Some uh racing it is today. Not actually that late either, so that's cool. No, no kind of evening races. I don't know if there are any tonight, I assume so. There seems to be most nights, don't there? Um, but anyway, that's the back to lay 20 tick uh profit strategy. Um, it's done well, it's been a bit of a roller coaster. I think it could be improved. I think a couple of tweaks here and there, and to be honest, I might save this now in my own and then do that myself, which is one more thing that I want to show you that's really important, okay? Because this is in the presets, okay? So you don't need to do anything with it, but if you want to do something with it, you're gonna need to save this strategy for yourself, okay? So what you can do here is when you're on the horse selection rules, just click next and see if it comes up. So you go back to the strategy bunker. What you wanna do, see this little green button here? This is a duplicate strategy button. And what this will do is it will actually add it to yours. So if you click duplicate strategy, it is now duplicated in your software. You can't see this, but I can, and when I move my head, you will see it. Back to Lay 26, and it will say copy next to it. So that helps because you're not going to be confused, okay? Now I do recommend you change this name as soon as you see it because then you want to give it a name that you know works for you. I'm gonna put March 2026, that's when I'm recording this, although the video almost certainly will go out in April because I'm quite ahead of schedule. I'm loving the horse race at the moment. I'm just I'm just loving bashing out videos for it. So much fun. I love the fact it's got back testing. Um, but yeah, back to lay example. So we've got that now. Now, if I click that, you will now see that here are all the rules. Okay, so it's copied the strategy over perfectly. It's very simple. All I did was click that um duplicate strategy button in the presets. And again, to get to the presets from my strategies, you just click this strategy type box and click presets. Very, very simple. Okay, so hopefully that's helped explain the strategy for you. I'm quite interested to see what you guys come up with with this strategy. I'd say, you know, let me know in the comments if you want me to add it for you. I don't need to, it's in the presets already, and you can add it yourself just by duplicating, um, but you've got a copy of it anyway. Uh, guys, we've got some profitable strategies like this that have been shared. If you want a copy of those, just say the word 10. I'm gonna build a list, I'm gonna build a list of 10 of the most profitable strategies that people have either people have shared um with us or that we've come across while creating strategies on the Light Speed Stats software. I love the fact. I mean, Adam was telling me the other day, there's literally thousands of strategies that have been created have been profitable, and how cool is that? We've been able to create profitable strategies for people, they've been able to test them and see that they're profitable without having to go over the rigmarole of having to forward test it, manually test it, jot things down to test it, jot results down. I mean, remember the hours I used to spend on time form going through results. That's the thing of the past now, and I absolutely love that. You know, I've got I've got my life back. Um, but yeah, anyway, guys, hope you have a great week. If you haven't signed up to Lightspeed, please do. Please subscribe to the channel. We want this channel to grow. Obviously, we've got Betfair Trading Community, which has been a rip roaring success. This one's just started out, so we want that to be the same. So subscribe to the channel, and then you'll get notified about more of these strategy videos. I'm gonna keep coming with them, keep coming hot. Like I say, if you want those 10 strategies, just say the word 10 in the comments and I will get those over to you. Have a great week.