Behind the Data
Jeff Krimmel is the founder of Krimmel Strategy Group, where he helps leadership teams turn energy data into clarity.
Each week, Jeff goes behind the energy market analysis he publishes online. What surprised him in the data. What he left out of the written version. What he's still chewing on.
If you want to understand how an energy strategist actually thinks through the forces shaping oil & gas, power, and the broader energy landscape, this is 15-20 minutes of unscripted, honest perspective.
Behind the Data
005: Reading a War-Driven Market, US E&P Discipline, bp's Reporting Segments, Norway's Oil Windfall
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This is Behind the Data, where I take you behind the energy market analysis I'm publishing online.
In this episode, I start with the webinar I hosted on reading the market after six weeks of war, and why I think this conflict is such a rare teaching opportunity for anyone trying to build real mental model fluency, the kind that avoids both false certainty and head-in-the-sand paralysis.
Then I get into why US E&Ps have stayed disciplined on production even with oil prices elevated, and the piece of the story that I think gets underplayed: the Gulf states have their own vote in whatever resolution the US and Iran land on, and the longer the war drags on, the messier that becomes.
From there I turn to bp's move to collapse its reporting segments down to Upstream and Downstream, eliminating the low-carbon segment entirely. I walk through what reporting structure decisions actually signal, about where management believes earnings will come from, and about the tradeoff between optimizing multiples and optimizing earnings dollars.
I close with Norway's record crude exports, and why they're a useful antidote to the tribal dunking that often dominates conversations about European and California energy policy. The reality of both is more pragmatic and more complex than either side tends to admit.
The next Oil & Gas Market Mastery cohort launches Thursday. If you want to develop executive-level market fluency alongside a cohort of peers taking it as seriously as you are, you can learn more at krimmelsg.com/ogmm.