Over the Pill
Welcome to “Over the Pill”, the Berenberg podcast where Kerry Holford & Luisa Hector lift the curtain on the messy reality of analysing pharma share prices. With over 30 years of friendship, Kerry & Luisa invite listeners into their regular debates on pharma strategy, drug pipeline prospects and commercial power.
Over the Pill
Episode 13
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After a period of travel to visit and meet with R&D Leaders and other pharma representatives, Kerry and Luisa re-group. With conference season well underway, the team run through some key highlights from ASCO and prepare for ADA. Expect details on lung cancer progress (MRK, BMY/BNTX, PFE) and RevMed’s belle of the ball in pancreatic cancer.
Hi, I'm Louisa Hector.
SPEAKER_00And I'm Carrie Holford.
SPEAKER_01Welcome to Over the Pill, the weekly podcast on the latest hot topics in farmer investing.
SPEAKER_00So welcome back. It's been uh a little while. We've been out for around three weeks, I think. Lots of travel. We've been out on the east coast of the US. We hosted our RD Leaders Forum in Boston, the Berenberg European Conference in Manhattan, and squeezing in a little time for some family holidays. Well, for you. It's been busy. And here we are, straight back into it this weekend with ASCO.
SPEAKER_01Yes, you know, very much conference season, right? So first with ASCO. Yeah. What do you want to know?
SPEAKER_00So, well, I think the most topical thing first off is what do we learn in lung cancer?
SPEAKER_01Yes, so we've already had a lot of the data in lung cancer. So remember, conference is still running. Friday, Saturday, Sunday, we got various updates. So really in lung cancer, we're looking to see where the ADCs are going to play a role, and then what could PD1 VEGF add to the mix? So Merck and Kalen had their phase three China data, OptiTrop Lung O5. So that was near the start. That data actually looked really good. So this is SAC TMT, it's a Trop 2 ADC. So here we're thinking about AstraZeneca's Datchaway and then Gilead with Trudelvi. So you've got all three Trop 2 targeted. But really, this first line lung data for Merck SAC TMT did look very good. It was working very well in both the PDL high and the PDL low group. The one caveat here would be that because they were looking at all of PDL1 positive patients, that actually comparing to K Truder mono was a little bit of an easy comp for that PDL low group where the standard of care is very much K-Truder plus chemo. But overall, we're seeing a very nice efficacy. Also, the side effect profile reasonable, and that's another area that we need to start drilling down, comparing SAC TMT to DATA. So I would say we were very encouraged by that data. We now need to wait for the Trophuse program to read out with some of those global trials. And there's a first-line lung trial in the PDL high patients against the K-Truder mono. So a more even comparison there. So that's the next one on the agenda for SAC TMT. We had phase two updates from Bristol Myers and BioNTech and Pfizer. So different trials there, phase two, so kind of looking at response rates. I would say for those, both of those, the data look very encouraging. Pfizer's data was China only. Bristol and BioNTech, we had more of a global trial, phase two activity very nicely kind of across the board. So when we're looking at squamous, non-squamous, and also all PDL levels. So that looks encouraging. And then we pull that together with yesterday at the plenary. We had the summit data on Evo plus chemo, the China trial harmony six. And again, very nice data. We're seeing here the overall survival update. So a nice hazard ratio, 0.66 for all comers, and good data across all the subgroups. But the discussant was very interesting. So a very clear message that this is a China trial. So we can say that this drug is very much working in patients in China. And the things to watch out for are the age. So in Harmony 6, you couldn't enter the trial if you were over 70. And you had this median age, I think of 65. And in the patients who were over 65, the hazard ratio was above one. So not so compelling. And also there were some exclusions based on the health of your lungs, because you have the various hemorrhages and bleeding risks, et cetera, with this combination. So still a little bit more to unpack here. And the question being that when you go into that broader population, global, and then older, more likely older in the US, whether we're still seeing such strong benefits. I would say PD1 VEGOF, we're still excited by this mechanism. We've moved forward a little bit, but so far haven't yet fully unlocked that global opportunity. So we need more data to come in the future.
SPEAKER_00So lots to unback still, I think, in lung cancer, but very much moving in the right direction, a lot of data there. But anything else of interest so far?
SPEAKER_01Well, I mean, just to flag, obviously the star of the show was very much RevMed. We knew this data was coming. The KRAS inhibitor, it was the pancreatic data, really spectacular improvements in survival, an area where patients really haven't seen any advances for many, many years. So we're seeing a doubling of survival to around 13 months. And this was very much the bell of the ball at ASCO. It was the final plenary, huge rounds of applause multiple times. So that was very much what the doctors were most pleased to see. So I would definitely highlight that one. And then still a little bit to come. Today is more now leaning in towards AstraZeneca. We've got the infinity liver data. We will get some updates for Bristol, Isa Bren, and obviously on Tuesday, Roche, the oral CERD trial, Herse Vera, which failed, but we'll start to see how much those curves were separating. And that's a read-in to AstraZeneca and AUBA company calls still to come.
SPEAKER_00Okay. Lovely. So more to come on that. And then as we move through this week, we start with another couple of medical conferences. So from my side, a lot of focus on ADA, which will kick off on Friday. So what we'll be looking out for this weekend, really with our most focus starting on the Saturday, we have the Pfizer Metcera phase two data for Berabenetide. Focus here will be on monthly dosing. That data set we've seen very little on so far. Also on the Saturday, the Lily phase three retardotide symposium. Some of that data came out whilst we're on the road. Looks very good. Weight loss up to 30% over 104 weeks of therapy. So now very much entering that bariatric surgery type weight loss. And importantly, there was no mention in that press release of cardiovascular side effects. So that's something we certainly want to get confirmation of when we see the detail at ADA. Also at ADA on the Sunday is the Bering at Ingolheim, Zeeland, phase three data for servadutide in obesity and MASH. This is a novel product, this GRB1 glucagon, that I think many investors have certainly forgotten about, given it lives within a private German company, effectively. And we think that one could be the next player to market. So very interested to see that data. Also the phase two from Roche for CT388, and some additional analysis from the Petrolintide phase two study. Phase three data from Novo for Cagracema in diabetes, also on the Sunday. And then on the Monday, the focus is really on oral small molecules. So Lily's phase three found Deo diabetes data and the first phase two data for AstraZeneca's oral GRP1.
SPEAKER_01Lots to keep us busy. And I think you wanted to highlight a very timely session with Novo.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, exactly. On Wednesday this week, we're going to h host a fireside chat with the new head of the US business, Jamie Miller. That should be a really interesting conversation, particularly given his background in the US healthcare system focused on the payers. So looking forward to that.
SPEAKER_01I think you were away when Apogee had another call on phase two data for its long-acting IELTI. Just because we had another example of private equity funding of RD. So it was with Blackstone, 1.3 billion commitment to help see them through the phase three for atopic dermatitis and into launch. I just wanted to highlight some commentary around provisions within that agreement for change of control. So that will allow Apogee within the first 180 days of any acquisition to buy down to reduce the royalty to Blackstone to a low single-digit royalty setup, still leaving Apogee kind of open to anything.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, interesting.
SPEAKER_01Okay.
SPEAKER_00All right, lots to continue with. Yep, more data to crunch. Absolutely. So we would love to hear your feedback and requests as ever. Please do email us at Kerry.com. Thank you for listening.