18. How to Trade Volatility: Options Pro Strategy ft. Scott Bauer

Coming to you from the Colorado Rockies, this episode of Positively Sloped is a family affair. Joined by Jake's father, the CEO of T3 Prosper, Scott Bauer- They break down a wild week of market "moguls" and unpredictable volatility. We discuss how the market is trading President Trump’s war updates and how an after-hours rally in SPY futures left retail option traders out in the cold.

© 2026 Kingsview Wealth Management

Important Disclosures: 

Kingsview Wealth Management is an investment adviser registered with the SEC. Registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that Kingsview has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. 

All opinions expressed by the Positively Sloped participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Kingsview Wealth Management, its parent company or any of its affiliates. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Positively Sloped participants deem reliable. 

Kingsview Wealth Management serves as portfolio manager to separately managed account strategies and investment adviser to exchange-traded funds. As of the date of this recording, those strategies and funds held positions in NVIDIA, and Apple, and did not hold positions in Micron, Microsoft, Chewy, or Vail Resorts.

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:00

And today's positive week quote, CEO T3 Fox for Trading Academy's top power jointly focus quote to discuss how professional traders navigating these markets loaded with economic landmines and headlines before we talk about March Madness, cover the first two rounds and what's ahead and wrap up with our fate or trades for the week. Okay, let's talk shop. Today is Tuesday, March 24th. And if you're watching on the YouTube, you'll see a little different of a backdrop today than the studio. I'm joined by my dad, CEO of T3 Prosper. We are in the mountains of Colorado, and although it might not look like it right now, we are gonna go skiing right after this, Dad.

SPEAKER_01 0:40

I sure hope so, and thank you so much for having me.

SPEAKER_02 0:42

Yeah, so we've got a uh historically warm uh winter and spring in Colorado, which has been a little bit of a buzzkill, but we're gonna go find some skiing, we're gonna ski some moguls, some blacks where we can. We're gonna get out there.

SPEAKER_01 0:53

We are definitely getting out there, we will find it.

SPEAKER_02 0:55

You know, it's kind of right now like the markets uh pretty fast, pretty unpredictable. Uh, you got to find the right pockets of of mountain to get onto, and uh any given minute it could look different than the last minute.

SPEAKER_01 1:06

No doubt about it. And you know what? There's some risk out there, right? But we can navigate it. There's no question about it.

SPEAKER_02 1:12

So let's let's uh jump into the show again. Thanks for joining us today. Glad to be here. Um, we got a lot to discuss. Um last episode of Positively Sloped was a couple weeks ago in in the studio. So we've got a couple weeks to catch up on, but um, I think the the biggest topic, the most salient point right now is probably what happened Friday after market close.

SPEAKER_01 1:32

Uh the this was unbelievable. And anybody that trades options, you you need to understand what happens at expiration. So market closes at three o'clock. That's central time. SPY trades until 3.15. So some of the ETFs trade till 3.15. So SPY closes at 6:48 and change-ish. And then at around 317 or so central time, we get news from President Trump about you know, something good about the war, something maybe calming it down or looking for a resolution.

SPEAKER_02 2:09

It's pretty much done very close.

SPEAKER_01 2:10

Pretty much done, very close. There we go. And what happens? SPY rallies almost a hundred points. SP futures rally about a hundred points. So here's what happens even though the option market was closed, 315 central time, and SPY closes 648 and change. So the 649 calls, 650 calls, 651 calls theoretically are out of the money. Yeah, right, worthless, zero. However, on expiration day, you have until 4:30 central time to notify your brokerage firm, which then goes to OCC Options Clearing Corp. That you want to create an exception notice. That exception notice meaning that you can exercise options that are out of the money, or on the other end, you can not exercise options that are in the money. So what happened was anybody that owned those spy calls, 649s, 650s, that were theoretically worthless, they could exercise those calls and sell spy on that rip higher, 90 points higher. So it's imperative that that especially the retail investor understands how expiration works. Because if you were short one of those calls, 649, you were laughing, you were you were on your way to your five o'clock beverage somewhere and thinking this is great. And then all of a sudden, and then all of a sudden you come in Monday morning and you're short spy where you think you escaped. So this was um, I would say, some suspect timing of the announcement. But again, it really comes down to if you're gonna trade options, which are unbelievable, I've been doing it for 35 years, you need to know the rules and regulations, how they work.

SPEAKER_02 3:55

And it's it's uh kind of what we've become accustomed to over the last, let's say, year, just picking a uh time frame here, but uh especially with the war in Iran going on, that you know, there seem to be some announcements that happen after some trading activity, which is uh unfortunate because it kind of it validates the fact that you know, as a trader, as an investor, you don't have the information and you're you're always at a disadvantage.

SPEAKER_01 4:17

We are less we are definitely last to know, but by the time we get it, the market has already moved for sure.

SPEAKER_02 4:22

And that move was incredible, like you said, the the you know uh spy close 648. We went from basically down a percent in futures to up two percent in about 15 minutes. You were sitting at the desk. I was what what did that look like to you? What were you seeing immediately?

SPEAKER_01 4:35

So the first thing I saw was this big candle upwards. I'm like, what just happened, right? And so talked to my to my colleagues, and all of a sudden we can see the news flow coming through on X and everywhere else. What happened there? And it literally, if you go back and look at that candle around 317, 318 Central Time on Friday, I mean, it was a whoosh. Anybody that had stops in there, you got absolutely annihilated if that was in there. So um, again, this timing was pretty suspect, as was the timing yesterday morning, Monday morning pre-markets.

SPEAKER_02 5:11

Right. So, you know, we we close, we close finally uh Friday afternoon up two percent or so, and we go through the weekend, you know, futures are are closed and then open up on Monday morning. Uh, and we gapped up two percent Monday morning to start on the news that you know Trump and and or President Trump and and Iran had had talks that went really well, and it looks like the war might be over. We're gonna pause uh any activity for five days until next weekend, which if you're following the trends here, seems pretty convenient. But so we gap up two percent to start Monday morning, yesterday at the time of film, right now, close around 150 basis points higher on the SP NASDAQ Dow, pretty close in that range. Let's fast forward to today. We've already given back 70 bips or so.

SPEAKER_01 5:53

Yeah, no doubt. Because the news flow, right? And it's um it's really unfortunate that we can't as a as a trader or just as a normal person, I'm not sure you can really trust the news flow. And if you are going to trade and make decisions based on every little post that comes out, which seemingly is second by second, minute by minute, have a lot of activity. You're gonna you're gonna have a lot of activity, and you're probably gonna have a lot of heartache. Yeah, is it's it's in my estimation, not really wise to do.

SPEAKER_02 6:24

So, this is a theme that I Scott and I have talked about, or we I talked about with Neil on the last episode. You and I started talking about this a year ago or two years ago. But like you said, you've been in the industry 35 years, you were in the industry not to date you and make you feel old, but before cell phones and Twitter and Instagram.

SPEAKER_01 6:40

Okay, let me take a sip here.

SPEAKER_02 6:42

And the speed of news flow was normal. You watch the news and you got a report. You didn't check your phone and you saw a true social post or a tweet.

SPEAKER_01 6:49

So not at all.

SPEAKER_02 6:50

The are the markets just driven by, like you kind of said, a tweet or uh an interview or you know, uh happening overseas, or it's more news heavy and headline-centric than it is fundamental at this point.

SPEAKER_01 7:02

There's no question, and that makes it really tough for traders. Opportunities are still there, but when you can't trade off of technicals or fundamentals, it becomes really, really difficult. And like you said, Jake, that everything is trading off of every word that comes out, the HFTs out there and the algos that are out there, they are scraping and searching for certain words that come out, just like when when Powell speaks in in one of his press conferences. Certain words will trigger massive buys or massive sells. And as retail traders, right, we talked about it before, we're behind the eight ball. Now, that still doesn't mean we don't have opportunity. We do, but what it does mean is sometimes we have to adapt the way we trade, right? I'm used to trading on fundamentals and technicals, but I've learned in this market it's real difficult to do so. So I think you have to adapt. You always have to have an out. If you're trading in this market, you have to have an out. Don't think that you are smarter than the market, because none of us are.

SPEAKER_02 8:03

And this is this is a theme that's persisted over a few years now. It doesn't have everything to do with President Trump and his tweeting. We see this around earnings all the time, where you look at NVIDIA, and I'll use that because it's an easy target, for basically every quarterly report of the last two years has been blowout earnings, margins have been great, top and bottom line. And then some sort of news comes out when they have their post-earnings call or some sort of headline, or like you said, you've got algorithms scraping all these transcripts, and so there's something that is deemed to be negative or just not as bullish as the fundamentals are, right? As we would have thought. And then the stock drops, and and the most recent one is Micron. Micron. I mean, think of the the run that Micron is on over the last year, it's up 320%. You know, memory is is right now the core of the AI craze, like data centers were and microchips were last year and the last two years. Micron had a 35% earnings surprise last week, it's down 13% since. Yeah, and actually this morning, it's sure you've been loving that activity as a trader.

SPEAKER_01 9:01

And this morning it's down literally right at the 50-day moving average, right around that 390 area. So we talk about as a technical trader, you know, that's something you would look at and say, hey, maybe there's some opportunity, but because of the backdrop, because of the news cycle, you kind of have to give that a second thought and say, Hey, do I, you know, work with what has you know pretty much worked for my entire career, or do I have to change things up a little bit? You gotta adapt.

SPEAKER_02 9:29

And and so let's, I mean, the the second topic today, and it ties perfectly into the option stuff of you know 320 and 323, you know, that being Friday and Monday, but you would think with all this volume, all this activity, all of these announcements coming out, and and you know, that we saw the spikes yesterday morning, that article you sent me, and not only the futures markets for for uh equities, but also oil. How come the bid ask spreads are widening? How come the liquidity is so thin if we have all this volume going on? I mean, average trading volume right now on supply is 83 million shares.

SPEAKER_01 10:01

Yeah, it's through the roof, but I I see this all the time, and my students are asking me, and we talk about it all day long. Why is bid ask on just a a call or a put option 80 cents wide? Or if I'm trying to do this spread, why is it$2 wide when it should be 20 cents wide? And that's because even though there's high volume trading in the SPs and in the queues, the liquidity flowing down into the option market is really not there. Now you may say, hey, look at look at all the contracts trading in NVIDIA, look at all the contracts trading in Apple, Microsoft, whatever it might be. But a lot of the institutional players are on the side right now. They they have their positions on or they're waiting. So that flow, that money is not really in the markets right now. And so we're left with you know, supply and demand, right? That's what bid ask spreads is is is really all about the the bottom line economic fundamental of supply and demand. And the supply and demand just is not there. If you were to look at like level two or deeper markets, those deeper markets are so thin as you either go lower or as you go higher. So that's another thing in this market why you have to be really, really careful with your entries and exits, because maybe you were expecting to be able to buy something on the offer, and by the time you go to do it, it's gone. It's just not there.

SPEAKER_02 11:25

Especially on on Fridays on expiration dates, where you know, we're going into these weekends, and it seems like from a war tactic perspective, most of our activity is happening on the weekends. And you can take the stance that there's some strategic war play there, or you could take the stance that you know, President Trump, it's never been a uh a secret that he that he watches the markets and that he um tends to want to you know insulate the markets from any downturns. And so when the market's not trading over the weekend, we see activity in Iran. Maybe that's why we got a five-day pause so that we could do it again next weekend. But that makes it pretty difficult uh to predict you know where we're gonna open up on Monday, to predict any sort of flow. And I think that's probably also contributing to liquidity constraints, on top of the whole, you know, it's not just the geopolitical issue right now. We have we have this uh credit spread problem. You know, I I on the show have said I think it's more of a retail investor understanding of the product that they're purchasing and not so much of the credit themselves. But so far, the credit issues have stayed within private credit, right? It hasn't widened out into now, and that's the risk, though, is that that's the next step, is that we widen. And it reminds me of the 23 banking crisis where you had two banks that were you were you were older? I was older than 23. Yeah, uh, I finally get to date some events. Exactly. Um, but you had two two uh banks that were especially um you know exposed to crypto and to some uh leveraged assets, and then you know there was fear mongers that said this is gonna be a whole banking crisis, and it wasn't. So we'll see if this if this credit constraint is is you know kept to just the private side or if it widens, but that's another issue out there. That's another warning sign.

SPEAKER_01 13:05

It is absolutely another warning sign. And in what we've seen happen with rates over the last couple of weeks, ever since you know, the really the war started, right? And we're seeing inflation expectations actually move higher. You know, it is not under control, no matter what anybody says, inflation is not under control. So rates reflect that. And quite frankly, the bond market led the equity sell-off that we are experiencing right now. The bond, you know, bond market started selling off, pushing rates higher, really before the equities started selling off. And you know, it was what two weeks ago, maybe three, maybe three weeks ago, we actually dipped under four percent on the tenure, and now we're approaching four or five. Yep, four or five. That is a I don't want to say a dangerous place. That's a place the market is uncomfortable. So, you know, over the weekend, when when we saw President Trump come out with some of the news actually yesterday, Monday morning, um, a really good friend of mine put out and put out an article, someone very, very respected in in the marketplace here and said, Well, we used to have the Fed put. Maybe we do have a Trump put. And maybe that area on the Trump put is four or five on inch on the 10 year and 6,500 on the SPs. We'll see if that actually plays out. But bond market, you have to watch the bond market.

SPEAKER_02 14:32

The the bond market usually leads. I mean, it's way bigger than the equity market. Trump, the Trump put being basically a level in the 10-year or the SP that he's uncomfortable with, and so he's going to put out some news to order to lower the 10-year. I will push back a little on the inflation. I think inflation is stabilized. It's not at 2%, it's not at the level that the Fed set out to get it to, and that you know, we talk about their dual mandate, but it has stabilized. Now, we did get our PPI report.

SPEAKER_01 14:56

Yeah, it was pretty darn hot. It was hot.

SPEAKER_02 14:57

Uh, last week, March 19th, we got Fed PPI. It was uh 70 bips higher month over month, three, four, uh, year over year, which is the largest jump since Feb of last year, which was preparation for tariffs. So, in that respect, PPI leads CPI.

SPEAKER_01 15:12

And remember, that didn't include anything about the start of the war. Sure, that was February, so that didn't even include that data there. So I think that's what the Fed is really, really concerned about. Um, and as kind of weak as the job market is, and I'm gonna say, you know, maybe the maybe the job market is stable, but definitely on the weaker side, the Fed is definitely more concerned about this inflation.

SPEAKER_02 15:34

Always the the interesting thing will be the the paradigm shift that we're gonna get in May. We'll see. And and what is what is Warsh if he's confirmed? What is his you know number one priority? Because Powell, um, say what you will about about Jerome Powell, but he's always been an inflation first guy, I would say. Um, and and certainly always citing, you know, we haven't we haven't cut rates in the last three months, probably because inflation's been sticky, even with the weak job uh number. So now we'll see. You know, last week we didn't do anything. It was probably, would you say, the fourth or fifth consecutive meeting where that was easily telegraphed? Yes. I think April coming up here, and which is also Powell's last meeting, is the first time in six to nine months where they could do any of the three options. They they hike seems on the table now.

SPEAKER_01 16:16

It is on the table. I mean, as far as like what the markets are pricing in CME, FedWatch Tools pricing in a potential hike. I think it's around 35%, but that's not until third or fourth quarter of the year. I think what's really important for people to understand, though, it's not Powell, it's not Warsh, it wasn't Greenspan, it wasn't Bernanke. The Fed chairmen do not single-handedly make policy. For sure. And I think a lot of people have lost that. People, you know, lost that in translation that, oh, this is Powell's fault.

SPEAKER_02 16:46

Well, somebody gets blamed every week and gets called names, and then you associate him with someone.

SPEAKER_01 16:50

So if Walsh comes in and rates are lowered, it's not necessarily because Warsh said, I want rates lowered, or if they raise rates, you know, and we see the president going after Walsh now, it's the same. There is a committee. Sure, the chairman has a voice. The chairman has a big voice, yeah, but it's not a single vote.

SPEAKER_02 17:10

No, no, but I do think that especially Trump's been very vocal about lower rates. He wants lower rates, he wants near zero rates. And so if you're putting a guy in, you're nominating Walsh to go be the new chairman, you more than likely have had conversations about why lower rates are better. Conversations, you know, whatever you want to say, are they back and forth or are they one way? As a trader, how do you strategize? Because you know, a lot of trading is event-based, and whether that's earnings or a data point coming out on the economic side, how do you strategize around Fed meetings? I would say, you know, like I said, two minutes ago, the last five have been easy. We were never doing anything in the last four or five. But when you get something like April, where you could cut, you could stabilize, you could, like you said, a hike is not likely, but it's now on the table uh for this year. How do you trade around that?

SPEAKER_01 17:57

So the way I trade, I don't care typically what happens three weeks from now, six weeks from now. Yes, I do, of course, in my 401ks, my IRAs, but that's not what I do on a day-to-day basis. My my trading is is really short term. It's not day trading, but it's short term. So I'm not thinking what the consequences might be down the road. What I'm thinking of is what's the best opportunity right here, right now. So when we get into a binary event, whether it's Fed meeting, whether it's a jobs report, earnings, I am typically looking for volatility disparities. So typically, what we will see in the option market is leading into a binary event, implied volatility will really rise or spike up. Options will get really expensive. I typically look to sell those and then buy something as my hedge, as my protection a little bit further out. That further out could be a day, it could be a week, it could be a month. That's about as far as I'll go out. But I'm typically looking for volatility arbitrage. I don't know what the move in the market is going to be, but I have a great, great handle on what volatility is going to do after that binary event.

SPEAKER_02 19:09

Yeah, I think our viewer in the studio, Ella, just saw you do 6'7 and started laughing. Oh, Ella, what is six seven? So when you're when you're trading around around that event, are you you're selling bicks basically? You're selling premium?

SPEAKER_01 19:21

I am selling the the near-term premium. So, so let's say, for example, Chewy has earnings tomorrow morning. What I would like to do is sell options that expire this week, because those are the ones that that have gotten really juiced up the most, and then buy something that is cheaper from a volatility standpoint, whether it's next week or a couple weeks out, because I know that after a binary event, volatility is mean reverting. That means volatility is going to settle back into its range. So I look and compare and say, okay, here it is now. It I know it's going to come down here. 100%, I know it's going to come down there. There's not a lot you can say in the market, 100%. That is one I could say 100%. Mean reversion. Mean reversion. Yeah. 100%. So that's what I will look to do. Now, if there is in an individual stock, let's say, uh, whether it's Chewy, whatever it is, going into an earnings event, and we happen to be at a really, really big technical or support or resistance um or support area, I might look to take a directional trade, but volatility is first and foremost. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 20:29

I think I think to bring that back to to the Fed talk, um, you know, we'll we'll see. We've got we've got another uh CPI report that we'll get. We've got another jobs report at the start of the uh April that we'll get unbelievable before April. It is unbelievable before uh the April meeting, but I I would expect that you know they've been very um data dependent. You know, Powell in in his meeting notes said they've been very um you know on the fence, really. You know, we're just gonna continue to take things as they come. We're gonna let the inflation persist through the economy and and see what that looks like. To your point, though, the addition of the war, and we've talked about the effects of the ongoing um conflict and and the longer we go with the Strait of Hormuz under the issues that they're that you know that's happening there, the higher that uh oil is gonna get and the higher that gas prices are gonna get. I mean, you're seeing five, five and a half dollars a uh um a gallon across the country right now. Now, WTI oil, a little more insulated than than Brent oil. Right now, though, it's like a$12 spread on the game.

SPEAKER_01 21:29

Yeah, something that we typically see, you know, two to four dollars, maybe you know, five dollar spread. But yeah, that that gap is huge. That gap is huge. And you know, players in in the oil space, in the commodity space, they're trading around that. Just like there's typically, you know, you some some interest rate traders, bond traders will play the 210 spread. There is a spread for WTI to rent.

SPEAKER_02 21:51

Interesting. And I I've been the news that we got this morning uh from Bloomberg was that uh Iran is now gonna start charging$2 million for free passage through the Straight of Home. lose listen more power to them i mean they're taking them they're taking a a page out of our playbook yeah capitalize monetarily where you can i don't disagree with that and what i would say to that is if that really gets put into place and that is the thing that opens it up i think you know what two million dollars is nothing yeah nothing for one of these oil tankers to get through there so for sure you know I think that would if that ended it right there great have at it yeah I mean I don't see uh I maybe was a little short sighted in my original analysis of the war from all my uh all your experience all my experience but this is not going to be a a days or weeks sort of thing I mean it's going to persist longer than that if there's not a deal made and it seems unlikely that the two are going to come together to make any sort of deal.

SPEAKER_01 22:47

Can I tie that back to inflation for a second? Absolutely you can awesome so if prices are going higher for for gas and inflation is moving higher if Borsh comes in if the Fed lowers rates right it it's this there we go we get six seven again it's this give and take right because if we lower rates we lower rates typically to spur the economy to get more spending out there well if there's more spending out there and consumers pumping more into into you know the economy what's that going to do? It's going to push inflation even higher tough situation.

SPEAKER_02 23:24

It is a tough situation to manage and and I think the the easy thing to say is the the you know quickest we can get a resolution overseas the the better we will be domestically and obviously you know internationally no doubt uh the geopolitical issues there like we talk about the Middle East there's always something going on this is a a fairly large escalation in the grand scheme of things and uh hopefully you know we can get some resolution and especially um when we talk about the economy and inflation because you know again to tie it back to President Trump that is he's watching and he he cares about oh he is definitely very data dependent and so that might draw drive him to do something there too. Speaking of watching yes did a lot of watching this weekend did you watch more college basketball this weekend than you have the rest of the season oh there's no I watch more probably in a day than I did the rest of the season except for watching Illinois play.

SPEAKER_01 24:13

Yeah um great what a I mean best time of the year.

SPEAKER_02 24:16

Yeah it is the best time of the year it was uh we had the first two rounds of March Madness uh Thursday Friday are always chaos you got uh 16 games a day um which is which is just awesome and gotta have the octabox up there the octabox um you know it it was interesting we've been Scott and I and Neil were kind of building this season on it's been an awesome college basketball season if you've been watching now NIL and the ability for these big schools with big budgets to pay mid-major players to come play for them your grad students to go play for them uh has really consolidated a lot of the talent into a handful of teams and we I think there was the threat in the first couple days of like all right here we go again there's gonna be no upsets now what I've said and what I've wanted the whole time was give me one 11 or 12 seed to make a couple to to win a couple games but let's get the Sweet 16 the elite eight the final four of the best teams that play the best basketball you know we had an amazing game on on Sunday with uh Vanderbilt and Nebraska best game in the tournament probably best game of the year unreal Nebraska hadn't won a uh NCAA tournament game ever nope and now they're in the Sweet 16 and Vanderbilt was an up and coming speaking of which how about the Big Ten the Big 16 buddy unbelievable third they're Indiana guy.

SPEAKER_01 25:28

Yeah but unfortunately they didn't make the we're a football they didn't make the tournament yeah definitely a football school yeah it's it's been an amazing uh uh tournament so far I'm looking forward to Thursday we got Illinois playing Houston which is I think going to be the the best matchup of of the dance so far anything stick out to you uh from teams or play style or anything like that it it just seems like so many of these games especially with the top seeds get rolling you get the updates during during the game and you see oh you know breaking news breaking news you know number one Duke is on the ropes is on the ropes you know six minutes into the game right and then we kind of see them pull away um but there have been a couple a couple really close ones so anything can happen it's it's not a series it's a one off we know that anything can happen but I agree with you I love seeing the upsets you love seeing the Cinderella's but now it's getting down to crunch time and I just want to see the best teams out yeah and I mean six minutes in Duke was losing to Siena with six minutes left I think that would have been the the biggest upset in NCAA history.

SPEAKER_02 26:34

Then they were the what I completely what you're talking about is the game against TCU the round of 32 game Duke was tied you know with two minutes into the second half and then ended up winning by 20 that's been sort of the theme Michigan's done that um where we didn't see it was Sunday with Iowa. No Iowa taking down Florida that was great unbelievable another Big 10 team and now Iowa plays Nebraska we'll have a Big 10 representation of the elite eight I'm still pretty confident in my Michigan pick. They've looked um of the one season your cousin really likes that doesn't she yeah come on they've they've looked the best you know they they two wins by 20 plus points haven't really looked shaky their tournament or their their issues all year have been if they turn the ball over a lot they're gonna be in close games but um I think Mish looks poised to make a deep run and then again I I the winner of Houston Illinois I think is going to have a great chance to then go beat Iowa or Nebraska to get into the final four.

SPEAKER_01 27:25

Yeah and and and hopefully for me for Illinois they're not looking I know they're not hopefully they're not looking ahead to that matchup Iowa Nebraska um because they have a very very tough task here and you know Illinois three months ago two months ago could have said was a top three team in the country and then you know they kind of fell off a little bit and they had a big problem closing games down the stretch. Now maybe they're peaking again at the right time right now.

SPEAKER_02 27:52

So I've got my hopes there um and you know hopefully they get to the final four at least and my guy my guy Kevin our our chief operating officer is an Illinois guy and we always go back and forth about LeBron MJ and one of my arguments internationally is MJ wasn't playing anyone internationally.

SPEAKER_01 28:07

U of I's best player Pejja Stoyakovich's kid Andre Stoyakovic he's a baller I don't know if he's the best kid out there but but that entire team is is made up with the exception of Wagler really of international kids. It's and we'll see what happens next year because Waggler's gone and a bunch of these other Isovic yeah both of them maybe are going to be gone so we'll see but it it has definitely been a fun fun season to be on a Line I fan it sure has and I'm looking forward to this weekend of the next rounds of games dad let's wrap up uh the episode today with our fades or trades of the week so I'm gonna I'm gonna give you a a statement here okay and you're gonna fade or trade and tell me why right um so first fade or trade for the week the market will give back all of Monday's gains through the rest of the week.

SPEAKER_02 28:52

Fade.

SPEAKER_01 28:53

Okay how come uh I we're gonna continue to see this volatility and I think for the reason that we talked about earlier that President Trump watches the markets way too closely his new ultimatum you know this might be the third or fourth one his new ultimatum is up on Friday right he extended that 48 hours to five days so I think we will see something not the end I will I do think we'll see something going into the weekend that stabilizes the market.

SPEAKER_02 29:23

I will fade that as well I think you know it's it's an easy one to kind of we could have traded that because they've already given back about 40% of Monday's game but I I will fade that as well I think um you know we've seen the last three Mondays I think I mentioned this earlier have all been positive days coming off the weekend uh I think he'll be looking to to change that and I think just from a market sentiment perspective um we had a great day Monday you know we're pulling back a little bit Tuesday but what you can count on in this market is we might be down 80 basis points right now by the time we hit the mountain we might be up a percent and a half so I'm gonna I'm gonna fade that as well and say that we go up this week for I mean it's been choppy. We've had a lot of down consecutive down definite chop definite chop uh dad second fader trade for the week so we talked about WTI and Brent and this and the spread that they're trading at right now being wider than normal WTI and Brent oil trade above$120 a barrel again in the next two weeks.

SPEAKER_01 30:14

Okay now not saying Brent yeah and I'm not saying Brent won't both in my opinion will not in fact I think that we will see WTI back with an eight handle. I know it was there it popped up again I think we're back in it with an eight handle and longer term down the road when this whole thing is resolved and again hopefully it is sooner rather than later you're gonna see WTI with a six handle.

SPEAKER_02 30:39

Wow wow yeah I will I'm gonna disagree with you on this one I'm gonna I'm gonna trade that um you know I've I've had we've had conversations with some guys at the firm that are like I remember when we were trading oil$150$160 a barrel no problem uh I I do think that we are probably going to spike again I think there's not really the end in sight when the five day you know pause wears off which I'm pretty sure we already um you know attacked again this morning so there's not really a pause going on the longer this continues I think the less confidence the market is going to have in news that comes out and I do think Brent for sure I agree with you that it would it'll be close but Brent I think definitely gets above 120 I think WTI will follow even though we are more insulated.

SPEAKER_01 31:16

This is what makes a market and we'll have liquid markets right here. Third fader trade the Fed makes a move in April and if you're saying yes what direction no no move at all fade fade fade fade there there's no move higher lower no rates are going to stay the same there's too much in question there's too much that they don't know about and then with the potential transition going to Wars um the there's in my opinion unless the only thing I could see happening is God forbid this thing escalates to to levels that people can't even imagine we could see a massive cut at that point. I I I don't see anything happening in April.

SPEAKER_02 31:55

Yeah I uh I I said at the start of the year I I thought the Fed would be quiet for the first uh half of the year maybe nine months I'm gonna fade this as well um I think if they were to do something they'd probably cut but we talked about the PPI number from February that's coming down the pike for CPI there's no way they're gonna cut in the face of rising inflation and so I will say there's no move either. Last fader trade for the week let's talk about March Madness. Okay we what we saw the one seed Florida fall we've got three left dukes looked a little shaky mish looks good um do you think a one seed wins March Madness I do unfortunately which means Illinois won't win but I do and I do think um looking at looking at the three especially Arizona Michigan do thank you Arizona's on I was blanking on there you go um it it's it's tough to it's tough to say that one of those three is not gonna win yeah uh I'm gonna trade it as well um I think I I I don't personally I'm not a dupe guy this year I don't think they're deep enough especially with their injuries um I like Arizona a whole lot even though I just blanked on them I think they're the best team in the country I think Michigan's two I think Houston's three not to break your heart so I think we'll get a final four with Houston Michigan and uh Arizona and at that point I take my chances on the two out of three so I'll trade the once he wins March Madness. Yes I agree. Well that's that's the show for today in in beautiful uh Eagle Vale right now we're gonna go hit the slopes to get positively sloped and dad thanks for joining us today and we'll see you all next week back in the studio. You know we didn't talk about who's the better skier. We didn't need to talk about it. Something's just going said. Okay.

SPEAKER_00 33:24

Thanks everyone Kingsview Wealth Management is an investment advisor registered with the SEC. Registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that Kingsview has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed by the positively sloped participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Kingsview Wealth Management, its parent company or any of its affiliates. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. As of the date of this recording, those strategies and funds held positions in Nvidia and Apple and did not hold positions in Micron, Microsoft, Chewy, or Vale Resorts