Dynasty Compass | Why Your Team Stays Stuck

Are you trapped in Dynasty Purgatory — the endless cycle of 6–8, 7–7, or 8–6 seasons where nothing you do seems to matter? This week, Jeff breaks down the real reasons rosters get stuck in mediocrity and introduces four diagnostic questions that will reveal why your team can’t break through.

We’ll examine internal reinforcements that never deliver, the hidden role of luck, players who fall short of expectations, and the reasoning traps dynasty managers fall into year after year.

This episode is Part 1 of a two-episode arc: Diagnosis today. Escape route next week.

Topics Include

• What Dynasty Purgatory really is
• Why multiple mediocre seasons signal deeper issues
• Evaluating whether the “cavalry” ever actually arrived
• How to assess your reliance on luck
• Expectations vs. reality for Cornerstones, Set-and-Forgets & Developing Talents
• Four reasoning traps that derail rosters
• How flawed thought patterns compound over time

Chapters / Timestamps

00:00 – Cold Open: Dynasty Purgatory Defined
00:45 – Intro & Episode Goals
03:10 – The Four-Question Diagnostic Framework
03:45 – Q1: Did the Cavalry Actually Come?
09:58 – Q2: Am I Relying on Luck?
13:36 – Q3: Did Performance Match Expectations?
17:18 – Q4: Was My Reasoning Sound?
26:58 – Closing Reflections & What Comes Next
27:38 – Next Week: Plotting Your Escape

Links Mentioned

• Episode 4: The 5 Kinds of Players on Your Roster
• Episode 11: Are They Who We Thought They Were? (Midseason Review)
• Episode 16: The Strategic Suck: How to Rebuild Without Tanking
• Episode 18: Escaping Dynasty Purgatory (Coming Soon!)

Support the Show

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Visit dynastycompass.com for more info.

Chapters

• 0:00 Cold Open
• 0:45 Intro & Episode Goals
• 3:10 The Four-Question Diagnostic Framework
• 3:45 Q1: Did the Cavalry Actually Come?
• 9:58 Q2: Am I Relying on Luck?
• 13:36 Q3: Did Performance Match Expectation?
• 17:18 Q4: Was My Reasoning Sound?
• 25:58 Closing Reflections & What Comes Next

Transcript

Episode 17 – Dynasty Purgatory: Why Your Team Stays Stuck

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You are headed for a 7-7 season, again. You're mired in perpetual mediocrity, forever on the edge of the playoffs, neither contending nor rebuilding. None of the moves that you make seem to alter this gloomy trajectory. You're stuck. You don't know how to get out. If this is you, then you found Dynasty Purgatory.

We're gonna figure out why on this week's episode of Dynasty Compass.

Welcome to Dynasty Compass. I am your host, Jeff Blaylock, The Other Jeff B from Footballguys. I am so glad you are here today. Thank you so much for listening on your favorite podcast platform or watching on YouTube today. You are the reason that we are here.

Today we are beginning a two-episode arc to get you out of Dynasty Purgatory, which is a perpetual series of mediocre seasons. Think 5-9, 6-8, 7-7, even 8-6. We'll learn why we might be in Purgatory this week, and next week we're gonna chart our course out of here.

And while what we're going to discuss today can be used to examine any team that fell short of what you wanted it to do, it's really intended to address and identify longer term issues.

Purgatory is not just a single mediocre season; that's just simply being average. Purgatory is several mediocre seasons in a row, which you don't seem to be able to do anything to change that arc of your team.

But before we even do that, let's recognize one really important thing, and that's that we are not here to second-guess your past decisions, and you shouldn't do that either. Nothing can come of that. It's counterproductive. Now, if there are lessons to be learned, then we'll learn them and then we're going to move on. 

Because dwelling on your past decisions does not inform a better future. In fact, it forecloses on a better future. And that's not just true for fantasy football. That's that's true for everything. That's a, that's a life lesson there.

It's also important to understand that no one question is going to settle how or why you are in Purgatory. It's usually several things that are working against you, all at the same time. So it's the collective leanings of what we're going to learn today, each supplying specific information.

It's much like using a compass in the wilderness to find where you are. One bearing will not give you your exact position on a map. You need several. So just as we find our position using the right landmarks, we're going to get to the answers we need today by asking the right questions. Four of them specifically.

Question number one—let's get right into it—Question No. 1 is "Did the cavalry actually come?" In our midseason review episode, we talked about whether the cavalry was coming. These are internal reinforcements—players already on your roster—but not available in your starting lineups. They may be out because of injuries or bye weeks, or they are developing talents that just aren't ready to be put in your starting lineup, or you can't trust them yet.

And the idea behind that was that if you are not at the record you think you should be at midseason, are there reasons to think that that record will improve when your roster is at full strength, when the cavalry comes? Because sometimes all we can do is wait for that cavalry to ride in and save the day.

So did they? And if they did, were they truly the cavalry? Or was it just some dude on horseback with a horn? Did these internal reinforcements actually improve our weekly scores? Because an injured player can't just come back from injury, be inserted into your starting lineup and operate at 50%. They have to perform. And a developing talent can't just grow into a flex territory, bye-week replacement or occasional starter. You really need them to become every-week starters. 

If even they were to do those two things, perhaps they came too late. You needed them to come back in Week 10, and they didn't make it until Week 14, when you were already out of the playoffs.

Has this pattern repeated itself? That's our question here. When the cavalry came in or it didn't, did this pattern of waiting for the cavalry and not getting the result you need repeat itself. Do you find yourself waiting for them every year, only to have them underdeliver on the promise of saving your team?

Do the same players keep getting injured, so you're waiting on the same players to return every season? When they do return, do they return to their pre-injury productivity in the same season, even in the next season? 

Or do our developing talents keep getting stuck behind other people on the depth chart? I'm thinking someone like an Isaiah Likely in Baltimore, who has been stuck behind Mark Andrews for three seasons now. He may very well develop into what we're looking for, but he's stuck on his depth chart. 

The point of these, of this, question and these ideas is to see if you are repeating a narrative of "When these guys get back, when these guys develop, I'll be fine." If you are repeating that narrative, then you're on your way to Purgatory, if you are not already there. Because your roster may be strong, on paper, but it's not strong enough to withstand injuries or rookies that aren't finding quick success. 

Very few rosters operate at 100% strength for very long. But there is a big difference between operating at 90% versus 70%. That production dropoff may be too great to overcome. And if you are constantly waiting on a cavalry to get you from 70% to 90%, you are going to be stuck with a mediocre record.

Our second question is "Am I relying on luck to succeed?" Now, luck is always going to be involved in fantasy football. It would not be a fun game if it weren't. The question here is not about whether there's luck. It's about whether I need much more luck to break my way much more frequently than I ought to expect it to.

So to answer this question, let's not look at our actual scores, what our roster actually scored each week, because that already has luck built into it. We wanna look at our projected scores instead. "Why?" you may ask. Well it's because projected scores estimate the strength of our lineup if there were no luck involved at all. If all of our players hit their projections exactly, that's what our score would be. We've removed all the variance that keeps nearly every player from hitting their projections, at least not on the nose.

Most fantasy football platforms provide projections of how many points your starting lineup is expected to score. They do this on a per-player and per-lineup basis. If you were to average that over the seasons, you have an excellent measure of the strength of your roster. So, on average, how many points was your starting lineup expected to score each week?

And then let's visualize a bell curve. If you remember this from math classes—if I'm triggering that, I'm sorry. This will be real fast and we will get outta math—the bell curve, it has a relatively flat, low tail. Then it has a steeper rise as we approach the center. Then it flattens again before reaching a peak at the very center.

Three things about this we need to understand. The first is that the height of the curve is not our score. The score is actually the x-axis, the horizontal axis. The height of the curve is, what it really is, is the probability that you will wind up with any particular score. And the closer to the center of the curve, the more likely it is that you'll hit the score. The farther out in the tails, the less likely that you're going to hit it. 

And your team's projected score is going to be the likeliest of all, which means it is at dead center. It is the high point of the curve. So if the center is 130 points, a score of 135 points is a lot more likely to occur than a score of 175 points; 135 is closer to the center, 175 is out in the tail. 

So let's take a look at a real example from one of my leagues. Over the past two seasons, one of my mediocre rosters has been projected to score about 130 points. I'll round to make this easier on us. The league's average actual score each week was 140 points.

You may say, "Well, wait a minute. Why are you using the actual here instead of the projected?" It's because I have to beat the actual scores here, not their projected ones. I need to beat their scores when their luck is married into it. So the actual average league score is a measure of how strong a typical opponent is going to be.

So, on average, I was projected to score 10 fewer points than the league's actual score. So my projected score, the center of the bell curve, is on average 10 points short. So just to get to average, I need some luck. I need a combination of my players overperforming their projections, or my opponents players underperforming theirs, or at the very least, mine overperforming more than theirs does or underperforming less than theirs does.

However, I look at that, I need variance to break my way more often than it breaks against me, and that's just to close the gap between what I'm projected to score and what I need. To be a contending team, I need even more of this. We know this as luck. 

Luck is random. Randomness means it's just as likely to go our way as it is against us. If we consistently need luck to break our way more than against us, then we are in Purgatory. We simply cannot be relying on a prolonged lucky streak. 

That's two questions down. We've looked at whether the cavalry coming actually strengthened our lineup and whether variance plays two significant a role in our success. So now let's turn to whether our expectations were being met. What are we expecting individually from our players? What do we think they are going to deliver over the course of the season?

So, Question 3 is "Did actual performance match my expectations?" We all expect certain levels of performance from our players. This isn't about weekly swings or a bad matchup or an injury. This isn't about a one-time situation that happened. This is about looking for repeated overestimations of performance, a pattern of being overly optimistic about players' potential as fantasy assets. 

And the goal here is to identify any blind spots that we have. Not in the sense that we can't see something, but blind in the sense that we don't see it, or we choose to ignore it if we do see it. 

To do this, we need to evaluate what we were expecting from three particular kinds of players. You may recall that we have five kinds of players on a dynasty roster: Cornerstones, Set-and-Forgets, Developing Talents, Next Man Ups and Dart Throws. The three that we need to explore are Cornerstones, who are our foundational players; Set-and-Forgets, who are our other every-week starters; and Developing Talents, these are players that we expect to become starters at some point in time, preferably sooner than later. We should not be expecting much from our Next Man Ups, who are spot starters, or from our Dart Throws, so we can exclude those from this evaluation. 

So what do we expect from our Cornerstones? Well, we expect them to be elite, consistent mid- to upper-QB1s, RB1s, WR1s, top-end TE1s in production. And that's a fantasy QB1, not a team's QB1. We're expecting the very top of fantasy scoring from our Cornerstones.

We expect our Set-and-Forgets to be consistent high-floor, high-ceiling performers: some lower QB1 to mid-QB2, particularly in Superflex, RB2, WR2 to upper WR3, lower-half TE1. That's what we're expecting from our Set-and-Forgets.

And we expect our developing talents to, well, develop. If they were first-round picks, we expect them to develop into Cornerstones or Set-and-Forget starters when we draft them, and we hold this expectation even if we accept that it's not gonna happen in their rookie season; we think it will be a Year 2 or possibly a Year 3 thing.

So the question is, did we get from these players what we expected from them? And, again, not just a single game or really even a single season, but across seasons. We know that variance, or luck, is gonna do what variance does. We are looking for longer-term performance that falls short of our expectations.

Now, if our Cornerstones weren't elite or our Set-and-Forgets weren't consistent high-floor performers, can we identify why? Was their role reduced? Did they end up running fewer routes or getting fewer targets? Was their efficiency reduced? Did they have a lower catch percentage, fewer yards per game, fewer fantasy points per touch? Did they not get touchdowns that we were expecting them to catch?

Did the offense as a whole fade either because of injuries to other players or inept coaching or a tough schedule or a quarterback who regressed and is throwing erratic passes? Did the offense change completely under a new coach or coordinator reemphasizing one position over another? Or did our players go over the proverbial age cliff where they are not able to produce at levels they could do at an earlier age?

If our Developing Talents didn't develop into what we needed, can we identify why? Did their role not increase? Did they get overshadowed or lost behind someone else? Did they lose their coach's trust and thus not get out on the field very often? Did a veteran stay ahead of them on the depth chart?

Or were we just simply wrong about who we thought was gonna be a Cornerstone, Set-and-Forget, or developing talent? Were we just simply wrong in our evaluation?

Most teams can survive one, maybe two letdowns from what we were expecting in any given season. But multiple disappointments over multiple seasons can sink what appears to be a solid roster on paper. And if that's what we have—we have a solid roster on paper, but multiple disappointments that have sunk it year after year—that's an indication that we are in Purgatory, that what we were banking on happening hasn't paid off. 

What we were expecting to get, we didn't get. If there's a consistent pattern to that, we need to know what that is because that will help us diagnose our way out of Purgatory.

So far we have looked at whether the cavalry came and delivered what we were expecting from them, whether we are relying too much on luck, and whether our expectations outpaced our players' production. These are the evidence for how we got into Purgatory. 

But there's a second aspect that we need to explore, and that is why we expected what we expected. We were expecting the cavalry to save us. We were expecting luck to break our way. We were expecting players to deliver certain levels of production. Why?

So that is Question 4: "Was my reasoning sound?" We make lots of decisions in fantasy football. Some of them turn out to be wonderfully right, some of them turn out to be hideously wrong, and there's a lot that are in between. But I'm willing to accept what turns out to be a bad decision if I made it for the right reasons based on the best available information at the time.

We've all started a player who gave us a goose egg while a player we left on our bench had a career game. I'm never upset with this if my reasons for starting one over the other were sound and I stuck to that rationale. A few weeks ago. I used the example of Ja'Marr Chase and Tre Tucker, and that one time Chase scored 7 points and Tucker scored 30.

Now if I had started Tucker over Chase on a whim, I would've been right in that particular instance, but would've been wrong most of the time. Starting the Raiders' then-WR2 over a Top 5 elite wide receiver is not a smart move. But if my decisions were based on flawed inputs or flawed reasoning, then I need to learn from that because those errors are going to repeat.

If it happens once in a while, that's just variance. If it happens frequently, that's on us. So there are tests that I will apply to determine whether my reasoning was sound or my thought process was right.

The first of these is the Evidence Test. Did I base my decisions on the best available evidence at the time I made the decision? And this is especially true when it comes to trades and draft selections, because those decisions have very long shadows.

Was I moved by evidence or hype? Was I looking at actual performance and opportunities, or was I clinging to old narratives? Was I considering all of the data points, positive and negative, or was I selecting data that backed up my preconceived notions? Was I considering ranges of potential outcomes or only the best case outcome?

And was I discounting some of those other outcomes? I considered them. Was I discounting them in favor of the ones that I wanted to happen even if the evidence suggested maybe one of those others was more likely? 

Every one of these questions is a variation of did I see only what I wanted to see? The evidence was there, perhaps in plain sight, but I didn't see it. I didn't want to see it. I had my theory, my take, my view, and I only wanted to see data that backed that up. Or was I open to a broader range of outcomes, recognizing the actual risks involved in my decision?

The second test that I like to use is called the Update Test. Did I update my view about a player when things changed? Was I paying attention to things such as declining snap share, fewer routes run, fewer targets, lower efficiency? Was I ignoring changes in roles, such as a three-down back being used almost entirely on first and second down? 

Was I overlooking the rise of another player into a similar role, like someone taking over as the third-down running back? Was I discounting the effects of a new offensive scheme, a shift or change in game plans, a change in game scripts? Was I unwilling to consider performance dips when a player returns from a serious injury? 

All of these are aspects of why our players didn't meet our expectations, which we discussed a few moments ago. The difference here is I'm not asking if I was wrong. What I'm asking is, when I realized that, did I change my mind and update my expectations, or did I stick to the narrative I had in the first place? Did I not update what I was expecting based on what I was seeing happening?

Third test that I apply, I call the False Insurance Test. Did I keep telling myself, when a certain thing happens, I'll start winning? We talked about whether the cavalry came. Are you always waiting for something to happen that will make your roster whole? 

My Cornerstones will be WR1s. My rookie is going to take over as the team's leading running back. My young quarterback is gonna get his offensive line healthy. Once that guy's head coach realizes he's the better option, he'll get more playing time. Have you heard yourself saying any of these things? I know I certainly have heard myself say them. It's the kind of an insurance policy that never pays off.

It's false insurance. You hold onto it, you keep paying into it, you keep renewing it. The premium's going up, but it never pays your claim. And we keep holding onto it because we believe it will pay off next time.

The fourth is the Sunk Cost Test. Am I too invested in this to give up now? I used my first-round pick on this guy. I've got to give him another year to prove it. I'm so committed to knowing that I'm right about this guy that I have to give him another chance to prove that I'm right. Maybe no one will give me the trade value I feel like I should be getting because I need to recoup my investment. So I'm keeping this guy and he is staying in my starting lineup. These are all examples of a sunk cost fallacy.

We talked about this in greater detail in our episodes about trades, so here's the high points. Whatever we invested in the player in the past is irrelevant. What is he worth today? However long we've held onto a conviction about what a player is going to be or do is irrelevant. If we were acquiring that player in a trade today, would we have that same conviction? That's the question to ask.

Everything that we have chosen to do or not to do to hold on to a narrative about a player is irrelevant. What are we going to do now? If we inherited this player now, what would our narrative be about him? Or, put another way, if we were the general manager of his actual NFL team, would we extend his contract based on his actual performance to date?

Now, any one of these four tests can be survived in any one season. If you have one of these things happen, it's not enough to get you to Purgatory. But if you recognize that these habits are matching—if you recognize these habits as being matching patterns of how you make roster construction decisions, then that's a sign that you are in Purgatory.

And if you're not, you will be soon. You could be stuck in preconceived notions and thought processes, which risk you either getting to Purgatory or staying there once you are there. Yes, sometimes the right decisions will be made, like starting Tre Tucker over Ja'Marr Chase that one time. But the reasoning was flawed, and more often than not, flawed reasoning is going to lead to flawed decisions, which will lead to poor outcomes.

You know, when I'm backpacking solo in the wilderness, I keep in mind that the first wrong decision I make won't be fatal. I'm not dumb enough to walk off a cliff. But it's the fourth wrong decision, compounded by the third, arising from the second wrong decision—that's what will get me killed.

A pattern of flawed decisions is what will lead you to Purgatory as a dynasty manager. When you're in purgatory, it feels like nothing you do makes any difference, that you are stuck. And in fact, half of that may very well be true. You might be stuck, but it's not because there's nothing you can do about it. It's because what you're doing hasn't gotten it done.

The cavalry can't save you, and luck won't go out of its way to favor you. And your players can't deliver what you expect, and your expectations—the process of building those expectations was flawed. But you can get unstuck by examining the evidence and unpacking your thought process.

So, as we near the end of the season, spend the time to go through your roster and why you have who you have, why you thought what you thought about them, and list out where things went awry, where you went off course. Because once we have the diagnosis, we can start the treatment. Once we know how we got lost, we can start to find our way back to the trail.

Next week, we are plotting our escape from Purgatory, and we can go in one of four directions: North, West, South or East. So which direction are we going? Well, that depends.

Thank you so much for watching or listening today. Please subscribe, like, give us a good review, share us on social media, tell your friends about us. You are why this show exists: to give you real-world advice and thought processes to make you a better dynasty manager. To get you out of purgatory and to get you toward perennial contention, which is our True North, the goal of all dynasty managers: contending for titles year after year after year.

And we'll see you next week on Dynasty Compass.