Draft or Trade? 1-Round Pre-Combine Rookie Mock with Heath Cummings

The NFL Combine is almost here — and dynasty rookie values are about to move.

In Episode 25 of Dynasty Compass, Jeff Blaylock is joined by CBS Sports’ Heath Cummings for a full 1-round rookie mock draft — with a twist: at every pick, we ask the real question:

Draft the rookie… or trade the pick?

From early 1.01 decisions to late-first dart throws, this episode is about draft strategy, roster direction and maximizing value.

If you’re holding a 1st-round rookie pick, this is required listening before you're on the clock.

Topics Include

• 1-round rookie mock draft
• Draft vs. trade framework
• 3 tier breaks for this year's first round
• Strategies for contenders vs rebuilders
• Chasing upside with late-round picks
• Cost to move up

Chapters / Timestamps

00:00 – Why a Pre-Combine Mock Matters
01:27 – How This Year’s Class Compares to Other Recent Classes
03:36 – Draft or Trade? The Strategic Framework
07:31 – Picks 1.01 & 1.02
12:55 – Heath Trades Pick 1.03
14:11 – Picks 1.04 & 1.05
17:42 – Heath Trades Pick 1.06
21:10 – Picks 1.07 & 1.08
24:50 – Jeff, Please Want Pick 1.09
28:32 – Picks 1.10 & 1.11
32:31 – Pick 12
38:13 – Price to Move Up
41:40 – Heath Consoles Dynasty Managers Holding 1.09-1.12

Links Mentioned

• Fantasy Football Today podcast
• FFT on YouTube 
• CBS Sports Fantasy Football 
• Follow Heath on Twitter/X 
• Jeff's Dynasty Rankings
• Follow Jeff on Twitter/X
• Dynasty Compass website

Support the Show

If you’re finding value in Dynasty Compass, please leave a 5-star rating and written review on Apple Podcasts. It helps the show reach serious dynasty managers looking for strategic edges.

Transcript

Jeff: There is no offseason in dynasty fantasy football, and here we are on the precipice of another NFL Combine, and that means one thing: it's mock draft season. Joining me today is Heath Cummings from CBS Sports, and we're going to do a one-round, first-round mock draft and do it with a little bit of a twist.

We're gonna talk more about the strategy of whether you take the pick or trade the pick than we are the pick itself. And that's next on Dynasty Compass.

[Theme music] 

Jeff: Welcome to Dynasty Compass. I am your host, Jeff Blaylock, the other Jeff B from Footballguys. I'm joined today by Heath Cummings from CBS Sports to do a little one round mock draft and talk about some draft strategy. Heath, thank you for joining and welcome to the show. 

Heath: Thanks for having me on. Looking forward to it.

Jeff: Yes, sir. Yes, sir. Uh, let's just jump in, man. Let's talk about this draft class as a whole and then we can start getting into, uh, the mock draft itself. Um, let's just start with, you know, kind of overall the holistic picture of the draft. You know, I've been hearing. Reading that this class is relatively weak, uh, compared to some of the other classes.

Are you, do you share that view and, and where would you rank it among the recent classes we've had and this upcoming prospective 2027 class?

Heath: Yeah. Near the bottom. Yeah. I mostly agree with the idea that it's a down year for rookie drafts. I think there might be a few points of distinction. I wouldn't necessarily say it's a down year for wide receivers in comparison to recent years.

Now there's not quite a number one like there will be next year with Jeremiah Smith, but still it's, it's a good wide receiver class. Probably weak everywhere else, but there are four or five, maybe six guys at the top that I think could compare well with the tops of rookie classes, so maybe, maybe top heavy in that not, not that it's necessarily better than the other classes at the top, but it's at least equal to the other classes at the top and in the fall off at this point, at least seems pretty severe.

I'm still hopeful that we get through the combine. We get some draft capital and there's maybe two or three, three more guys that you really feel good about as first round picks, but for now, I'd say definitely towards the bottom in terms of comparing it to other classes with a decent top end.

Jeff: It seems to be too that, you know, we do have these sort of clear QB1 Q-rb one—a clear QB1, clear RB1, clear TE1 in Mendoza, Love and Sadiq, but the wide receiver class could be anywhere, any of several guys could be that one.

I think right now I sort of look at three being the top and then there's, you know, two or three or four others that are, are in that next tier. But that tier could be easily five or six different players as well. Is that kind of your, your vision as well for this wide receiver class? No clear top, but there is some, some level of top people.

Heath: Yeah. And I think that the difference is at, at quarterback running back and tight end, like we have some good prospects, but part of the reason that there's such a clear number one is because there's not a number two there to compare that compete with them. Where at wide receiver we have, we have three guys who you could legitimately make the argument for as the WR1 in the class and, and they're all very talented.

Jeff: This is, uh, you know, one of those years. I think that if you're a QB-needy Superflex team, this probably is not the year for you unless you just happen to be holding the 1.01. You know, we've already established there's not really a clear QB1 here. 

Heath: Mm-hmm.

Jeff: Is there any hope at all beyond Mendoza in this class, or, or would you be punting this position if you're not holding 1.01 and you need to

Heath: Yeah, I, I think the only argument I would have with that idea is, I'm not sure you're going to need 1.01. Um, I think there's a chance that you get Mendoza at 1.02 and maybe even at 1.03 'cause there are people who just don't think he is a real difference maker at the quarterback position. And there are difference makers at running back and wide receiver.

But yes, if I am on the clock and I need a quarterback and Mendoza's gone, I'm probably not taking another quarterback in this draft unless we've gotten to round two or round three, and we just wanna throw a dart. Listen, the NFL gets things wrong all the time, so maybe one of these guys becomes at least a low end QB2, but I'm not excited about any of the quarterbacks in this class.

Jeff: If you're not holding one of these top, you know, 4, 5, 6, 7 picks, maybe even 2 picks, is this also just a year to be punting generally, or are there enough gems out there that, that there's value to be had at 1.08, 1.09, 1.10? And we'll certainly get into that as we get into the back half of our draft.

Heath: But just as a, yeah, this general all comes down to the perception of your league. We don't want to just give these later round picks away or these later first round picks away if we're not going to get good value. And if the consensus amongst everyone is that the back half of the first round's not any good, then maybe you can't get anything for it.

And you might as well just throw some darts. I think you, you said it, there are some wide receivers who profile as nice tier two options in this class and whichever one's your favorite are throwing a dart at those guys in the back half of the first round makes some sense. And then I think there's some other running backs in the class that while they aren't necessarily profile as as feature backs or as three down backs, we see all the time, day three backs make an impact as a rookie.

So if I can't get anything for those second round picks anyways, I'm okay with targeting some of those running backs and hoping they end up with a bigger workload than we're projecting.

Jeff: Yeah, and it's certainly the case that, you know, not every year's 1.05 is the same. Not every year's 1.01 brings the same value. Uh, but we were looking toward 2027 in particular. You know, there seems to be a lot of potential value there, right? And that those, those picks, that 1.08 may be worth quite a bit more than the 1.08 is this year. Is that, that your sense as well?

Heath: Yes. Yeah, and I, I think like when we do this exercise, I may be trying to see if I can get a first round pick as soon as I get past 2. If I can turn any of the mid 2026 firsts into a 2027 first, I'm gonna be happy to do that.

Jeff: All right, well, let's just dive in then to our, our mock draft. Now, a typical one of these kinds of mock draft shows, we would just alternate picks back and forth and snipe each other and debate the merits of why we chose somebody, where we chose them.

But we're gonna do this one just a little bit differently, and that Heath is going to be on the clock for every single pick. But that doesn't mean that Heath is going to be making a pick at every selection. He may choose to do that or he may choose to trade them away. And so what we're really trying to get at today is sort of that strategic balance or difference between taking the pick or trading them.

If Heath decides to take the pick, he'll select a player. If he decides to trade the pick, then I will be the one making that selection and we will move through from 1.01 to 1.12. Really kind of getting into that strategic discussion of. Do you pick or do you punt? And so that will be where we go.

Heath, you are on the clock for the 1.01. This is a Superflex 12 team dynasty rookie draft.

Heath: So I think the one place where you might consider trading this pick is if you have a rebuilding team and you already have quarterbacks. So we, we've, I've talked about this a lot, but I think when you are going through that rebuilding process, you wanna solve the quarterback position, you wanna solve the wide receiver position, then we start worrying about running backs.

If you're pretty early in a rebuild and you don't really have a need for Mendoza than I think trading out of this pick makes sense, but I'm, I'm thrilled with either Love or Mendoza early in this draft. And if I'm just talking in a vacuum where I don't know what I need, then I'm actually gonna go with Jeremiah Love, simply for the reason that I think he moves into my dynasty running back rankings close to RB6 or RB7 as soon as he's drafted. 

I don't put the rookies in there until after the draft happens, but he's gonna be a top six, maybe seven running back in the dynasty running back rankings, and it has a chance to jump into the top three really fast, like if he hits the ground running.

Unlike Ashton Jeanty last year and Ashton Jeanty is still a top five dynasty back for me, I think he's probably more of a difference maker and increases and has a a carries more value through that rookie year. Fernando Mendoza have not heard very many questions about whether Mendoza can be a quarterback in this league, but I do have significant questions about whether he can be a difference maker for dynasty purposes.

Jeff: Yeah, I think I agree with you on that. It's really kind of a question of how desperate you may be at quarterback in terms of whether you wanna spend this pick on this player. Um, I had Dave Kluge on the show a few weeks ago and asked him, uh, point blank if Love was quote unquote that good. And his response was, "Yes, he's that good. Next question."

Heath: Yeah. I, I think he has both the high end upside because of his physical traits and abilities. Yeah, but also the floor of kind of like Jeanty being able to pretty much do everything that you would ask for a running back to do. I don't think we have to worry about him ending up in a situation where he doesn't provide the value that he should because he can handle just about any responsibility you want to give a running back. So it's a good combination of both upside and floor.

Jeff: Heath, you said you don't include the rookies in your dynasty rankings until after the draft. I am, uh, compelled to do that. Beforehand I didn't used to, but in my role now at Footballguys, I do, and I typically discount rookies a lot in my early rankings. Uh, for example, Ashton Jeanty was not in my top 12 to start last season.

He was down lower than that. And I have Love at RB7 right now, giving you an indication that I actually think he is, uh, he is exactly what he's coming as advertised. And, and is that, as you say, difference maker at, at all the different levels that you'd ask a running back to play. So Jeremiah Love at 1.01. Heath, you're on the clock for 1.02.

Heath: Yeah, I, I, I'll, because this is a Superflex format, right? It's all just, I'll, I'll go ahead and take the quarterback next. Again, I, I. I think that Mendoza gives you a pretty nice floor in terms of his ability to play the position at an acceptable level to where he gets that multiple year runway to see if he can become truly special as a quarterback.

I love the fact that he is gonna be paired up with Klint Kubiak. I think that will really help his early career efficiency. And hopefully they also find him a wide receiver to go with Brock Bowers. But I'll take Mendoza at the 1.02, probably the best guy in this draft for just like guaranteeing that you store that value for the next two years, because I don't think his value is probably going down too much this first two years.

Jeff: Yeah. I mean, even a player like Kenny Pickett still gave you about 60 starts before uh, he'd started

Heath: Mm-hmm. 

Jeff: to disappear from team starting lineups. You know, I, I see Mendoza kind of as a, a Matt Ryan type really. He is great between the ears, which I think is some of the hardest things to, to coach and a player. Tremendous leadership and character. You know, he is a great culture guy, selfless kind of teammate. 

I don't think that Mendoza is a high ceiling kind of guy, but he's a very steady sort of QB2 in a Superflex environment, and he's going to give you years of that level of production with the occasional flourish, I think.

Uh, so he's the kind of, not if you're banking on him to be your QB1, uh, you're going to have the number one overall pick next year and can get a different quarterback then. 

Heath: Right. 

Jeff: But I think if he's your QB2, you'd be pretty satisfied with, uh, with Mendoza.

Heath: Absolutely.

Jeff: I have a feeling we're moving into Wide Receiver-ville here, but maybe

Heath: we are 100% moving into Wide Receiver-ville. This is an interesting, the way you've set this exercise, if I've been trying to think about how I want to handle this. 'cause the truth of the matter is if I, if I have the 1.03 and the draft starts like this one did, and all three wide receivers are left, I think the first call I'm making is seeing does the guy with the 1.05 have a strong preference amongst these next three wide receivers, and if they do, can I pick up some draft equity to let them make the choice for me? 

So I'm gonna go ahead and let you make the choice as far as who goes first amongst these three wide receivers, and I'll just pick up the extra draft capital and move down to pick five.

Jeff: That's very smart. I, I, I kind of like sometimes to let the universe tell me what I'm doing and that the 1.05 seems to be a great spot for that because, uh, these other two guys will be gone whichever two they are. Uh, and you'll get the other one if you want him. Uh, you know, it depends on what day of the week it is as to which one of these guys I happen to see is the WR1.

And, and today I happen to see that, uh, as being Carnell Tate from Ohio State. So I'm going to take him at 1.03. He's had the good fortune or the Ill luck of playing opposite Marvin Harrison, Jr., Emeka Egbuka, and now next year's presumptive WR1 Jeremiah Smith. I think if it weren't for that and for an injured calf that hampered him a little bit last year, he might have separated himself from these other guys in this class. 

Definitely in the first tier, either way. Great downfield, a Z type receiver. But he knows when to come back to the quarterback, uh, and help them out when they're on the run. Good at contesting catches, good at tight coverage. You need yards after the catch? He can do it. 

I still say though, I think his ceiling is probably as an elite WR2. I think he's gonna struggle if he were pushed to be a team's WR1, particularly, uh, the teams that may be picking in this range, if they're looking for him to be that WR1, I think his, uh, his onramp might be a little difficult, but I do see a lot of value coming from him, uh, in the future. And, and I don't know that he's a surer bet necessarily than these other two, but there's, I have concerns about, uh, the next two guys who are in this tier wide receiver that at least today, Tate would be my choice at 1.03.

Heath: You know, if I would've had to have make made a selection at three, I probably would've taken Tate, too. Right now I'm kind of going back and forth between him and Makai Lemon as, as my WR1 in the class. So I'll take Lemon with the fourth pick. I, I think he may have the highest floor of the group and be the most.

Likely to be a guy who really excels in PPR and earns a lot of targets, and that doesn't mean that he can't go down the field. Also, he has the ability to do that, so maybe the most likely to be a wide receiver two. But I like Tate's chances just a little bit better of having a couple of WR1 seasons, especially if he has a couple of, gets with a good quarterback and has a couple of those big touchdown seasons, which, which Tate could really thrive in that area.

Yeah, but I, I'd go with if, if Tate's off the board, then I'll take McKai Lemon.

Jeff: Okay. Yeah, I, I love that pick and, and you know, just watching Lemon's tape, you know, he's got good hands, very, very few drops. He's gonna be a trusted target. Uh, but one of the things I noticed in watching it that I, I don't really see in a lot of college running, uh, or wide receivers rather, is he does try to get both feet in bounds on a catch if he's on the sideline, even though he only has to get one in by college rules.

And I think that kind of sideline awareness is an extra, you know, three or four or six catches per season, actually kind of as a, as an Amon-Ra St. Brown type role. If he can get that, then I think Lemon's got a, got a really high floor and, and a potentially very high ceiling for

Heath: Absolutely. And then, and then I think five's probably the easiest pick in the draft. We'll just go ahead and take Jordyn Tyson, 'cause that's who's left of the, of the three wide receivers. And another guy I think similarly with. With Lemon is that he does have a good floor. I don't think he's going to bust out. I don't think he's gonna end up in one of those situations where he is only getting 80 targets.

I'm not sure that he has, as I think he's third in terms of ceiling between these three wide receivers and that's why he generally falls to third when it comes to my rankings as well. But still a much bigger difference between Lemon and anybody that's, or between Tyson and anybody on his left than between Tyson and the two receivers who went before him.

Jeff: Hmm. You concerned at all about Tyson's injury history? I mean, he's missed games every season and including an entire season. When he had that, uh, trifecta of knee ligament, uh, tears at the end of 2022, that that contributing to him being third for you, is that a worry for you or is this a he's so much better than the others?

Right now, this is who I'm taking at five. 

Heath: I I think that's, it's more the latter. But also I, when it comes to injury history in college, I'm probably a bit more dismissive of that than I when we, when they moved to the NFL. So I'm gonna, I'm gonna give him a little bit of grace there, but, but I do think that even if you discount for the injuries, he's still the pretty clear choice to be the WR3.

Jeff: Yeah. Yeah. I, I, I think so as well. At least at this point. Uh, it will be interesting, I think once we get to the Combine, we are recording this episode before, uh, the Combine happens. Uh, if somebody gets that sort of, uh. Those eyeballs on them that can vault them up into this group and potentially push Tyson down one more spot.

Right now, I'm not sure who that would be, but we will see if that person might be at 1.06. Uh, Heath, uh, you are on the clock for that selection

Heath: much like the 1.03, if I have the 1.06, at this point, I am shopping, shopping, shopping. I'd be happy to turn the 1.06 into a 2027 first. I'd be happy to move back three or four spots, take somebody from this next tier of players, but not making the first choice. So I'll go ahead and trade the 1.06 to you. 

Jeff: Would you, are there any kind of, uh, current players that you might be in the market for too here, if you were gonna make that kind of a swap? Or is this just pure draft capital that you were looking for?

Heath: Oh, I, I think if I'm 1.06 and I'm competitive. Then yeah, I, I'd be certainly looking to find, I mean, it depends on the position that you need. Obviously you'd take just about any starting quarterback that you think is gonna be starting for the next two or three years. I'd, I'd like to look for a wide receiver in that low end, WR2 range, and I'd feel pretty good tar targeting somebody in that range at this point.

Maybe you could see if you could get a Jaylen Waddle or a DeVonta Smith or somebody who's still young. But hasn't quite performed to, to the level upside that we expected from when they were drafted.

Jeff: I think Waddle would be kind of a fascinating bet here. And, and even with that uncertainty, probably a, a more reliable bet than these receivers would be for that level of production because he's got that history of, of doing it with subpar, quarterbacking play.

Heath: Well, I'm just waiting, waiting to see who your pick is.

Jeff: I'm gonna take the guy who I think might be the one that vaults into the top three among wide receivers. I'm gonna choose Denzel Boston out of Washington. Uh, he's kind of an X receiver straight from central casting. He is about 6-4, 209, 210, strong.

He's tough, he's explosive. What I'm really excited about for him is that I think he is a big, reliable red zone kind of target. So I could see some touchdowns coming his way. I think in a similar vein to Tate who, who I took earlier, you know, Boston's kind of had to wait behind other players and be overshadowed by Rome Odunze, and then somewhat to a lesser extent, Jalen McMillan and Ja'Lynn Polk.

Um, but I do see him as having a super high ceiling because of that red zone potential. I'd be willing to take that chance here if I had traded four from, from you traded to get this pick from you. Uh, it's gonna be Boston. I think he is a little behind the top three, but a little ahead of the next group of wide receivers that I see is more or less indistinguishable.

Heath: Yeah. I think his upside belongs maybe with the top three, like. Uh, there's all types of, of good upside. It's just, I, you worry about does he end up in that X role where it's, I think it's Matt Harmon calls it the Sacrificial X where he, he's just, he's just always stuck running up and down the sidelines and he is always stuck with a corner right in his hip pocket.

And he is not, not in a lot of those in breaking routes. And then he may be a player that's more valuable to his NFL team than a fantasy football team.

Jeff: I do, I do have that, that concern is that he is probably gonna be one of the easier players to just take off the board if that's what a defense wants to do. They just, they just force that quarterback to go somewhere else. And he, he runs his 54 routes and has two targets in one catch. Uh. Hopefully it's a touchdown. 

That that is a concern. That's a concern with, with the Xs is, is yeah, you can rub them out if that's really the, the idea. 

So halfway through the draft, we've got Love at one, Mendoza at two. Then the wide receiver show begins with Carnell Tate, Makai Lemon, Jordyn, Tyson, and then now Boston, who I just selected at six. Uh, we gonna keep the wide receiver train going, Heath, or are you gonna punt this decision to me to see if I keep it going? You're on the clock for the 1.07.

Heath: You know, I, I'm not sure you're going to have to have taken him quite this early, but if you have the 1.07, I'm also not sure that you can move down and comfortably get him.

So I'm gonna go ahead and take Kenyon Sadiq, the tight end out of Oregon. It's not unlike Boston, I think the upside. For a tight end with his athleticism and playmaking ability is extreme and it's intoxicating. And also there is some risk that he ends up being one of those tight ends that plays 55% of the snaps and doesn't give us quite what we think he should based on his athletic profile.

Uh, I think the, the blocking concerns may be a little bit overrated for Sadiq. I do think he can stay on the field a little bit more than somebody like Dalton Kincaid and he. He has the athletic ability and the the after the catch ability to just post some really huge numbers. I don't wanna miss on this guy.

Even if 1.07 might be just a little bit early.

Jeff: Yeah. I mean, dude is a freak, right? 

Heath: Right. 

Jeff: I mean, he's all muscle. He's 6-3, 245. I, I think I read a report that he put 30 pounds of muscle on in his two years, last two years at Oregon. I, I agree his blocking, he's decent. He's gonna struggle, uh, against some of the, the better top defensive ends in the league.

But I agree with you. Ceiling's very high. I don't see this as a reach. If you had, if you had traded this pick, uh, and left it for me to, to select, I would've selected Sadiq without, without really a lot of hesitation here. I think he has that, he's probably the, the difference maker in this class if there is going to be one at tight end, I think is Sadiq.

Heath: Yep. So is that, uh, is that seven? 

Jeff: That's seven. We are to 1.08.

Heath: I think we're at the end of another tier. So I'll go ahead and make one more pick and then we'll see if I make any more in the last four. I'll go and take KC Concepcion, um, wide receiver and, and really again, the end of a, a tier here. My fifth favorite wide receiver outta Texas A&M was a very early breakout with standout freshman campaign.

He's a. Produces YAC at an incredible rate and I think has the ability to do some things downfield as well. And so if we've got a three tier, three wide receiver tier, then I think we've got a two wide receiver tier here for tier two at this position. And I'll go ahead and take him.

Jeff: Yeah, a big play waiting to happen, right? Yeah, I think it's a great pick. Heath, he would probably have been my choice here as well. If I had been selecting, I think you're, that's probably 1.08 and we may find out that 1.08 is sort of the, the floor of, of the top tiers of this draft. Um, but I think Concepcion belongs there. He also kind of one of those guys I think that could leak into the top three wide receivers.

Depending on the Combine, and of course also where he lands. He's also at that point, I think in the NFL draft where he could land with a really, really good team, right, like a Kansas City kind of team that could make him into an instant star. Where some of the other guys we talked about may be on teams that are still rebuilding and or have quarterback issues and may not be able to have that same instant, instant on switch that Concepcion might have depending on where he lands.

Heath: 100%.

Jeff: Now we're in the, the, let's debate whether we're trading and what we might trade for. And I bet, uh, we, we got a wider net of what those things might be as we, uh, we move into the bottom third of the first round.

Heath: Yeah, it's kinda like, I, I wanna make the first five picks. I want to see if I can deal 6, 7, 8 for that 2027 first.

Jeff: Um. Mm-hmm. 

Heath: And then I get to pick nine. I'm like, okay, does anybody want this pick? Uh, Jeff, do you want this pick? Jeff, please take this pick.

Jeff: Yeah. You know, well, I will take it because that's the ground rules of the game. I, you know, I hope at nine that somebody fell in love, somebody drafting one through eight fell in love with somebody we haven't talked about yet.

Heath: Uh-huh. 

Jefff: And so, you know, Boston, Sadiq or Concepcion drops into this position, uh, because at this point, yeah, I. Lots of, lots of ranges of outcomes here. Uh, at 1.09, let, let's, before I stumble into whichever one I'm gonna pick what's, uh, you have what you want for 1.09. What are you willing to take in terms of like a 2027 pick to get out of this position?

Heath: So that's, that's the difficult thing because yeah, I don't know that anybody's going to give you a 27 first for this pick, unless you have like maybe the team that won it last year or a team that really thinks they're a true contender, so they think they're gonna be picking 11 or 12 next year and they just wanna add something they think can help them right now.

Like that would be the ideal target is find somebody that thinks they have a very late 2027 first, and then hope it doesn't turn out to be as late as they think it's going to be. 

Jeff: Right. 

Heath: I would also say if I'm one of those teams that's a contender, I'm not taking that risk. 'cause I don't wanna risk accidentally trading away a top five or six pick in 2027 for this pick, but that'd be the first place I'd look after that, I think you pretty much have to go to veterans.

Hopefully if you have the, like, I think where you're, where you're in a really bad spot is if you're in a rebuild and traded into this pick at nine or 10 or 11 in this draft is one that you've traded for. Um, because if you're a contender, it's easier to say, okay, I'm gonna take an older vet that maybe doesn't have quite as much dynasty value as this pick, but will help me win now.

Um, it's, it's much more difficult. I wouldn't take 2 '27 seconds. Like it's not that bad. But I'm, I'm, I might consider a '27 second and like a '28 first. So ideally I think you'd be getting a very late '27 first.

Jeff: Yeah, I, I think that, I think you're right. And that '27 first might actually get you more value at a player at, at, at that point then, then 1.09 is here and we're talking like 1.10, 1.11 

Heath: Right.

Jeff: With a deeper class. Like you're already better off than, than selecting here. So. I will now, uh, make my selection. I'm gonna take Jadarian Price. 

Heath: Okay.

Jeff: The other running back from Notre Dame. And I will take him, not so much because I think he's going to be this huge difference maker, but I do think that he's, he's got some elite traits in his burst and his ability to move. He's got Kenneth Walker style patience. He's good at absorbing the contact, but he's gonna get stuffed a lot. 

I think I, I don't see him as being able to like plow through or over people. Um, but once through the line, if he could get past it, he could be gone. He is got that kind of speed. He's not a receiving threat, unfortunately. He just had 15 career receptions. Three of them were touchdowns though. 

So this is a, this is a two down back solid sort of change of pace guy. And if you're in a league that's got kickoff return yards. Um, he led the FBS in that category last year, and that was without the dynamic kickoff rules. College plays with the old rules. So if you've got that kind of a league, this is another sort of upside play. So I'm kind of thinking in terms of the two or three leagues I'm in that have special teams points going to the players. This, that I think makes price a little more valuable than he might be otherwise as a two down back, who's not gonna catch any passes?

Heath: Yeah, I, I will, uh, I'll just go ahead and take another, running back at 10, and this might be a little earlier than some people have him, but I, Emmett Johnson is a guy who I think the things that he's good at are being a professional rusher of the football, and that's going to extend hi, the chances that he gets to improve his pass blocking, and if the past blocking improves.

This could be a guy who actually is one of the three down backs that comes out of the 2026 class 'cause he has shown an ability to catch the football. It's just, we know in the NFL catching the football is only part of playing on passing downs. He also has to be good at pass protection and it may take him a little while to figure that out.

But I do think he'll have an early downs role. I do think he could have some success in short yardage in the NFL. And so this is a guy who maybe starts off as a, a high end flex or something for you in his rookie season, but has, if he can just fix the flaws in his game, has the potential to be a, a guy that maybe a, a team has on the field for 70% of snaps.

Jeff: Yeah, I think some people might see this as a reach today. I don't think they'll think that in about a month or so. This the, I think Coleman has that, or Johnson rather, has that ability to sort of get up into that, that top tier discussion, not to the Jeremiah Love level. He is head and shoulders above the rest of this class, but I think in terms of who that next guy might be, particularly as you see in PPR formats, if you can.

If you could catch the ball, assuming you can at least chip the guy rushing where you're standing first, uh, then I think there's a lot of value to be had there. Uh, he is gonna have to learn some pass blocking and that it's gonna take some time. So if you're looking for instant on, you know, I say I think Flex is the right thinking here.

You, you, he's going to give you some production. He's not going to be your RB1 or RB2. And if he is that you're looking at a high round draft pick next year and can fix the problem, then 

Heath: 100%. 

Jeff: So that takes us through 10. That is, uh, Love, Mendoza, Tate Lemon, Tyson and Boston in our top six. Kenyon Siddiq at seven, Concepcion at eight. I took Jadarian Price at nine, our second running back off the board. You took the third one in, in Johnson at 10. We're now at one 11. More running backs? Are we switching positions or are you punting this one away and hoping? Hoping

Heath: I did you solid by making a pick at 11. I think we're gonna go ahead and trade 11, or making a pick at 10. We'll go ahead and trade 11. Back to you.

Jeff: Yeah. All right. I, I, I, that's very good. I, I appreciate that. I am, if I am at this point, and I'm hopefully a, you know, a contending team, and this is my first pick and I am pretty well situated across the board. And if that may be the case, then to me, this is the choice.

Am I gonna take someone like a Ty Simpson, a quarterback who has the potential of being a starter? Is, is probably a spot starter in terms of injuries, kind of a Mac Jones type of player? Uh, or do I I keep the running back train going, so I'm gonna go with, uh. Kaytron Allen, uh, the running back here at 11 and, uh, I kind of see a lot of Nick Chubb in him.

I mean, he's the "Fatman." That's his, uh, that's his, his moniker. So kind of, what else do I need to say? He's hardly any fat on him, but he is thick, right? And he's stocky. He left Penn State as their all time leading rusher, and, and that says a lot. 'cause Penn State has produced some really outstanding rushers.

He's averaged at least five yards to carry every year. Uh, so, uh, if I'm the, if I am a contending team, I think he's somebody I'm willing to take if I want to take a chance on a, on. Quarterback who may play for me sometimes Simpson, uh, or Nussmeyer may make some sense here, but, but I like, uh, I like Allen.

And then the next batch of wide receivers to be too many question marks I don't wanna take right now, unless I were just really desperate.

Heath: Yeah. I'll swing for one of those question marks with the 12th pick and fully recognizing that you do have to be a little bit desperate, but you have to be a little bit desperate to have hope.

And most of the players left at this point in the 2026 class. And so I'll go with Chris Brazzell just because if you're going to throw a dart with the 12th pick, why not throw it at a 6-5 wide receiver who makes incredible plays down the field and hope he can turn into a more complete wide receiver?

I think it's, it's a very low floor type pick. This type of what guy is generally a round two wide receiver. But I think it just kind of speaks to the state of the 2026 class that you get to this point. I wanna swing on upside. If Simpson gets taken in the first 45 picks in the NFL draft or in the first round for sure. Then he probably has to go here just because it's a round one quarterback. But I'm not super excited about Simpson either. So I'll go with the, uh, with the lanky high upside wide receiver.

Jeff: Yeah, that, that, I think you bring up a great point on when Simpson gets taken in the draft. If he's a first round pick, I think I would probably have leaned more toward him, uh, when I last selected than, than I did and. So I think Brazzell's a really good pick here. 

So let's go back through. We've got our first round here. We have Jeremiah Love. Uh, at 1.01 and Mendoza at 1.02 for the reasons that, that you picked, you picked both of those guys. Uh, I assume you're content with that as the alignment love, and then Mendoza?

Heath: Yep. Yep.

Jeff: Then, then we have, uh, Carnell Tate. I chose at three to take the, uh, first stab at this, uh, trifecta of receivers. Lemon and Tyson you took at four and five. I think if we did this show next week, we might rearrange those and then the next week we might rearrange. It changes a lot. We may rearrange them several times between now and then, but I, I think our thought process here was pretty good and, and I believe you would've kind of kept them.

I know you've kept Lemon and Tyson in that order 'cause you picked them. I think you said

Heath: Tate would be number one for me right now, I think like even to that point, I'm gonna have however many rookie drafts that I have. If I have three or four picks in that three through five range, I'm probably going to have one of each of those guys.

Like, I'm not, I'm not, there's not enough of a difference for me to load up on one of them in four or five rookie drafts.

Jeff: Yeah, I, uh, actually have in one draft the three through five.

Heath: Oh, there you go. Just take all three.

Jeff: So these may, I may, may not have to make a choice as two goes first 'cause it doesn't matter. I may just take all of them. Uh, so we'll see. But I, I think, yeah, there's, you know, these could be some boom bust kinds of guys. I, I think the chance of any one of them being the guy, uh, is low, but of one of the three of them is probably extraordinarily high that we're gonna talking about a low end.

Dynasty WR1, upper end WR2 potentially ceiling, certainly middle of WR2. Which one? Uh, well, I guess we'll see.

Heath: That's exactly right.

Jeff: After, uh, those guys, I went ahead and took Boston at six. He is kind of, I, I think just on the, the edge of this next group of receivers that includes Concepcion, who you took at eight and Brazzell, who you took at 12.

Any concerns on Brazzell? You know, being a Tennessee product, Tennessee has not produced the most elite NFL ready talent over the past few years. Is that streak you're afraid continues? Or you, you think this one's gonna gonna, his upside's worth the risk that he's gonna be just yet another Tennessee problem?

Heath: I don't worry too much about the particular schools and what players from there in the past have done. Uh, but at the same time, I don't see very much floor with Brazzell. It's entirely a ceiling pick.

Jeff: Yep. Yeah. If, uh, going back to our draft, Kenyon Sadiq is the only tight end taken at seven. Is there any other tied end you would've considered at 11 or 12? Or is that a totally second round decision? After, after,

Heath: uh, yeah. Not just a second round, but probably a middle of the second round. So I would say we, we probably have to get to pick 16 or 17 before I start thinking about another tight end.

Jeff: Okay. Uh, co Concepcion comes in at eight. Uh, we had some running backs in a row: Jadarian Price, Emmett Johnson and Kayron Allen. I had the first and last of those, you had the one in the middle. Uh, if you had been forced at nine to choose, would, would you have chosen, would you still have chosen Johnson or would you have taken somebody, would you have taken price or somebody else?

Heath: I, I would've taken Emmett Johnson at nine. Um, although I'd be trying really hard to trade that pick first.

Jeff: Yep. Yeah, you kind of hoping somebody has fallen in love with somebody and they won't be around when they come up pick, you know, at 1.08 or something, and maybe they will, maybe they'll trade you for it. Uh, and then we just talked about Brazzell at 12, uh, being, you know, a ceiling guy. Not much floor. And I think that says a lot about where we are with this class, right?

We are making ceiling plays at this level of the draft, even if we're uncomfortable spending a first round pick on that. That's basically, you have that or you have the sort of two, you know, uh, first and second down back grinder kinds of running backs, right? It sort of seems to be where we are in these last three or four or five picks of the draft.

Uh. That that's, that's why, that's why we're looking at 2027, right?

Heath: Yeah, that's exactly right. Yeah. It's, it's five players you're really excited to draft. Three players you're kind of excited to draft, and then you just start shooting for upside.

Jeff: Yeah, I, I'm certainly not excited about anybody I took nine through 12. I much more excited about the people who came, who went one through eight. I think you are as well, and that's, that's part of the conundrum of Dynasty, but it's also if you were a contending team. That's probably where you are is nine through 12. Right. And, and so, you know, I think your message, uh, is, is pretty clear.

It's, it's, you bet on upside here, right?

Heath: Right. Either that or you try to find a, some, some, some way to move up. Or better yet finding a, a veteran that's gonna help you this year and let somebody else make the pick.

Jeff: What would you, you know, let's say you did wanna move up, you had this nine through 12 and you were looking at, you know, say one of those receivers at three through five. What are you willing to spend in addition to this nine through 12 pick to get up?

Heath: I think most likely to get into the top five. If you're outside of the top eight, then you're looking at two additional first round picks. So you gotta give up your late first, and then you've gotta give up. Because, because I.

Listen, there may be some people who disagree with all the things that we've said, but we've just talked about the significance and the tier drop after the top five, and then again after pick eight. And I think people are, are not going to want to give those top five players up. Maybe you could get it done for two firsts and two seconds, but I, I think it's probably gonna take you three first.

Jeff: Wow, that's a, that's a pretty steep price for a bet on, on those guys. Right. Um, and I suppose, I mean, I suppose if you are a contending team, you're right on the edge of championships. You're expecting those future picks to hopefully be elevens or twelves in your round and you need one piece and you're in love with one of these receivers, it might be worth that kind of price, but that is an awful lot to pay, uh, for, you know, Makai Lemon.

If that's who you're gonna take at four, once you've done this, this sort of massive deal,

Heath: I think it, it, it's, it's easier to move from one of those wide receiver spots up to get Jeremiah Love actually be only because a lot of people follow the same philosophy of not wanting to start their rebuild with running backs.

They want to get to one of those wide receivers, and so maybe they're willing to make that move for just a a 2027 first.

Jeff: Yeah. Yeah. If, if I, yes, I think if you're, if you've got a, a pick that someone really values on the, on the happy side of those cliffs, we were just talking about moving up, I think is a, is a fairly straightforward exercise if you're willing to pay the price.

But if you're on the wrong side of that, moving up is going to be, uh, a challenge. 

Heath: Right. 

Jeff: Uh, expensive, arduous challenge. Uh, and you may not like what you get in the end once you've done that.

Heath: Absolutely. 

Jeff: We're not gonna do the second round, but you know, if those are your 12, who are you kind of eyeing at that top of that second round? If you are up at 2.01? Two or three?

Heath: Yeah. I mean, it's like, I think Ty Simpson will be somewhere in there. Jonah Coleman will be somebody that's that. That's a potentially, I wouldn't be surprised if Elijah Sarratt, especially if he gets paired up with Mendoza in Las Vegas, then he moves up into that range.

And then you start looking at some of the tight ends. Max Klare, um, Stowers out of Vanderbilt. 

Jeff: Mm-hmm. 

Heath: That, that, that group of players.

Jeff: Heath, thanks so much for, for joining me today. This has been a lot of fun. I, I hope you've enjoyed this as well. Going through a little differently, not just debating the players, but debating the choices.

Uh, any, any, you know, final words of wisdom for the people or where they can find you over at CBS Sports and the. What you're working on here as, uh, the NFL draft hurtles towards us?

Heath: Yeah, we are, we're ramping up our draft coverage over on FFT Dynasty, that's comes out wherever you can find podcasts on Tuesdays and Fridays.

We're on YouTube at 11:30 Eastern, so check that out. While some great guests over the next couple of months to talk about where they rank these rookies and the only. 

If, if you listen to this podcast and you have the eighth or the ninth or the 10th pick and now you're depressed, first off, I'm sorry about that.

Second off, I do think that there's a, a good chance that the value of those picks increases in the coming months as people start to decide. Ooh, I really like this guy as the fifth wide receiver, or the second running back, or we got another quarterback drafted in round one. I wouldn't be surprised. I'm, I'm not sure it'll be justified, but I think that value may increase before we get to rookie drafts for those later first round picks, and at least make it easier to offload them if that's what you wanna do.

Jeff: Hey, thanks so much for joining us. Hopefully, you all have enjoyed and learned something, listening or watching today. If you did, please like please subscribe. Uh, please head over to Apple Podcasts and drop a positive review for us that would help the show grow quite a bit. And we will be back next week with another outstanding guest and a little bit more dynasty strategy, and that happens on Dynasty Compass.

We'll see you then.

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