Pre-Draft Dynasty Trade Strategy with Alan Seslowsky

The window between free agency and the NFL Draft may be the most underrated trade market of the dynasty calendar, and most managers are either frozen or making the wrong moves. Jeff Blaylock sits down with RotoWire's Alan Seslowsky to break down how to think about this moment and shares his philosophy of running into the burning building. 

In Part 1 of this two-episode series, Jeff and Alan discuss who to target before the market catches up and why waiting for the draft usually costs you more than it saves. They also dig into the 2027 pick hype, the Alec Pierce sleeper case, Kyler vs JJ, Jaylen Waddle's prospects in Denver, and why Kenneth Walker's dynasty value is more complicated than it appears.

Topics Include

• Why the post-free agency, pre-draft window is an undervalued trade market
• Alan's philosophy of running into the burning building
• Dented cans & broken toys: names worth a second look
• The 2027 pick hype: legitimate signal or dynasty groupthink?
• Alec Pierce: overlooked dynasty riser right now?
• How coaching changes create buy and sell opportunities dynasty managers are missing
• Jaylen Waddle's upside in Denver and what it means for the whole offense
• Kenneth Walker: cash out into the Super Bowl MVP hype, or hold?

Chapters/Timestamps

00:00 – That Crazy League We're In Together
05:04 – Should You Ever Rebuild, or Always Go for It?
09:54 – Grading the Offseason Chaos
12:59 – Run Into the Burning Building
17:39 – Dented Cans & Broken Toys
21:09 – Bench Size Changes Everything
24:52 – The 2027 Class Hype: Real or Overblown?
29:14 – The Counterintuitive Play for an 8th Place Team
31:26 – Offseason Storylines We're Sleeping On
36:30 – The Case for Buying Productive Vets Now
39:24 – Jaylen Waddle's Opportunity in Denver
44:38 – Kenneth Walker: Cash Out or Hold?
50:32 – Juggling Leagues & Platforms
55:37 – On Agentic AI: "I Saw War Games"

Links Mentioned

• Rotowire
• SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio
• Follow Alan on Twitter/X
• Jeff's Dynasty Rankings at Footballguys 
• Follow Jeff on Twitter/X

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Transcript

Jeff: We were in the most exciting window of the dynasty calendar. Free agency is largely settled. The draft is still a month out. The trade market is wide open. Most dynasty managers are either frozen or making moves they might regret. So is it better to watch the board fully? Or should you be that manager who's running into the burning building?

My guest today has a very strong preference for one of those. He's Alan Seslowsky from RotoWire, a dynasty analyst, SiriusXM host, and the guy who just won one of the most deranged fantasy football leagues I've ever played in. So we'll dig into the post free agency landscape and the mistakes that dynasty managers may not even realize they're making all of that on the other side of the stomp.

[Theme music]

Jeff: Welcome to Dynasty Compass. I'm your host, Jeff Blaylock. I'm thrilled today to be joined by my friend and leaguemate, Alan Seslowsky from RotoWire. Alan, thanks so much for joining me today.

Alan: Did I have a choice? Jeff? I mean, you, you and I, we, we were hanging out, uh, back at the Fantasy Football Expo and we got along too well. It was only destiny that you and I were gonna be podcasting together. This is the first of many. I hope you'll come on our show. I'll go on your show and, uh, I always know, uh, a dynasty sick puppy when I meet one, and you are the real deal. So I'm happy to hang with you.

Jeff: I am as sick as they come, but I haven't been a puppy in a really, really long time. But I, but I do appreciate that. So yeah, talking about the show, you've got one that's, uh, starting up this week on SiriusXM.

Alan: Yeah. For anyone that has SiriusXM in their car or listens on the app, channel 87 is the Fantasy Sports Channel, and finally they are, uh, doing an All Dynasty show. I'll be hosting it at 1:00 PM on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Fridays for the next three months, uh, which is, as we know, the best time of the year, right, for Dynasty. Like, we almost like get disappointed when the season starts. A little bit like this is the, uh, time of hope, time of rebuild, I mean, so yeah. I'll be on SiriusXM three days a week on those days, and we'll only have, we'll have like a, just 100% Dynasty fantasy football show.

Jeff: That's awesome. Love it. Love that. Love the commitment to Dynasty by SiriusXM. It's a, it's a format that's got lots of sick people playing it. And, uh, there's not as much content for us as there are for lots of other people. It's one reason why this show exists. So that is outstanding. Can't wait to, uh, to join you on that. We'll, we'll just go ahead and sign me up for whatever days you need. I will, I'll make that happen.

Alan: Lock it in.

Jeff: Uh, so, you know, in this land of eternal optimism, you know, you and I are in this crazy wild league together where we get to play up to four quarterbacks. I totally botched that draft because I didn't pay enough attention to that little detail. So I'm gonna be an ATM machine for that league for years to come. But you are the defending champion. So how are you preparing your title defense against all of us degenerates that you're up against?

Alan: I love that the first question is for an audience of like six, right? Like nobody plays in a league where you start four quarterbacks, right? Like it's two mandatory start two plus two superflex. You don't have to play two super, uh, you know, four quarterbacks. But as you know, it's better to play Bryce Young than like wide receiver, like 13, right?

It's it. So yeah, I mean, I, I. I don't even know how I got roped into this. Dave Kluge is a good salesperson. You know, it's a 10 person league, so it's a little bit more palatable, but, uh, I, I don't even know. I mean, it's tough enough to play in leagues where you have two quarterbacks. I was just like, in that league, it's like, all right, you gotta start four quarterbacks.

My first five picks are gonna be quarterbacks, right? Figure out the rest later. As you know, in most dynasty leagues, people ignore age, so just fill it in with age later. All the players, like McCaffrey, like the position players, um, Derek Henry, Mike Evans, all those guys that go in the first four rounds of redraft leagues always get pushed back in, in Dynasty.

So I think that's a little bit of the cheat code, right? Like, you just have to forego. You're not gonna get any of the sexy rookies in a format like that. And you just gotta be like, all right, I'm gonna get four quarterbacks and then build it with all guys. That's what I did, and it, and the right weeks pop for me and, you know, made a couple trades.

So, yeah, no, that's a cool, cool format though. But only when you have quarterbacks, if you said you're in the quarterback, if you're in a position where. You're, you need quarterbacks. Um, it's hard 'cause you can't even trade for them. Right. You have to like find like Jacoby Brissett, Malik Willis. You got to collect backups.

Jeff: Yeah, I, I, there was one week and, and I was fighting for that last playoff spot, which is the absolute worst place to be in a dynasty league, and I just missed it, which is really the absolute worst spot to be. But I had one week where my, I had one quarterback who was healthy and active, and it was Russell Wilson, and he wasn't playing,

Alan: Oh yeah. 

Jeff: I got two, two zeroes there. Actually, my WR74, was a much better starter than my quarterback that time around.

Alan: Right. Well, you just said something interesting I wanna ask you about. You said it's the worst place to be, and I hear that a lot. Like if you, you don't wanna be in the middle, in Dynasty. Uh, I've always fallen on the side of, and maybe I'm, uh, I I wanted to have this discussion, isn't it? Just make the tournament and then hope you'll luck into, uh, luck into a championship. I've seen some succeeds, uh, win championships and even like in all formats, Jeff.

Jeff: Yeah, and I have won from that position. And actually, you know, the show's Dynasty Compass. The compass is our sort of central metaphor and, and so, you know, I always aim for the North, which is perennial contention. That's where you've got a team that can win for years and years to come. The South is the land of the rebuilders. The West is where the win-now teams go. And the East is what I like to think of as kind of "the chip and a chair." They are the folks who are kind of destined this season to be in the middle of the pack. You just aim for the tournament there. You try to get in and you never know what happens once you get in. But if you miss then you have not great draft capital. You didn't get your shot at the title and uh, you need to regroup for next season.

Alan: Yeah, I mean other than some of like the elite picks we know are gonna hit Bijan Robinson and rookie drafts, you just said the elite, you don't get elite draft capital, but how many times do we see, like pick six be the winning pick Ja'Marr Chase was like pick five or six in, in rookie drafts. Justin Jefferson and Justin Herbert were even later than that.

I, I think it's a little bit, obviously you want those higher picks, but that's why you should always, I always go for it. Just never rebuild. And plus, I mean, how many dynasty leagues really last 7, 8, 9 years? I mean. Some of them are three and done two and done 10. I mean, you know, of course everyone's gonna have their leagues that have been going 10 plus years.

But I, I think that the, you know, you have 'em in every league. The perpetual rebuilds, the minute a player hits, they wanna sell 'em, right? They want to get rid of 'em. And I, I just, I'm sure there is a good strategy to that. I just feel like why? It's the same reason like that teams in the NFL don't really tank, right?

Like it's just the players don't want to tank. You always have to go for it, man. That's my opinion. And I know that, that there's a lot of, um, smart dynasty, you know, players that don't agree with that, Jeff.

Jeff: Hmm, well the only championship you can win is the one this season. You cannot win one three years from now sitting here today. So if you, if, if, if that championship flag you're looking at is perpetually three years out, there's something wrong with the way that you're, you're managing things. The productive struggle is not supposed to go on for decades.

It's supposed to go on for just a couple of seasons, but you do have to have faith. I think the point you've made about most dynasty leagues not lasting past three years, it, it might as well, you know, I think a stronger position sometimes is to start out with exactly the way you did in the league we're in together.

You pick up those older guys who can win now. Get that championship banked and then if the league survives, deal with it later. And that's, uh, approach I usually don't take, but I may start taking it because I can't keep taking it on the chin in these dynasty leagues for the first couple of seasons while I build this long-term contender that may not ever have a chance to play.

Alan: And it's fun to draft young upside players, rookies, the Travis Hunter types and all those, like with all the optimism. And we'll do it again this year. And look, if you're in 10 leagues, 15 leagues, six leagues, you, you, you don't wanna just keep building every league the same way. It's kind of monotonous and then all of a sudden it's like, you know, I always make the joke that fantasy football players, uh, Jeff, especially dynasty players, are the only ones that'll spend a hundred dollars to win 25, right?

Like. We love winning, but it's really not about the money. Now, again, you wanna win, you wanna be profitable. You don't wanna have to keep paying 50, 50, 50, a hundred, a hundred, a hundred,

Jeff: Right.

Alan: but, right. Like it's, you know, it's, it's a little, um, like when, there was a great stat at one of the conferences that said, what is, is, where do you rank winning money as, uh, in the hierarchy of like what you do with sports betting.

And people said it was like 86%, right? And then it was, sorry, was that was with the betting exchanges and then with sports betting it came down to like 70-something percent. When you talked, when you asked, uh, during this survey, what perc what, like how important is making money with fantasy football? It was like 30-something percent.

I mean, it, it really, uh, makes the case to what you just said, have a few builds that way, have some fun with it. But when it comes down to like, winning and especially in leagues that, you know, are, you know, 50 bucks, a hundred bucks, 200 bucks and above, um, I think you gotta treat it a little bit more like redraft plus, right.

Jeff: Yeah, I think, you know, it's always good to get that, get that win booked in early, that pays for your next several seasons. And at some point, Alan, this habit of ours needs to pay for itself. We shouldn't be subsidizing it from things like, you know, meal money and, you know, dog food money and travel money. But 

Alan: I mean, you are for, you're like eating Burger King instead of like, uh, a normal meal just to finance your dynasty. Jack in the Box. 

Jeff: Whataburger, actually Whataburger. But yes, thank you.

Alan: There you go.

Jeff: This feature is sponsored by Whataburger? No, sadly it is not. But you know, like say in Dynasty, there is no off season. You know, you and I are plotting and planning a, as are a lot of dynasty managers and, and we've seen some movement this year. Seen some, a lot of coaching carousel.

I mean, this is one of the wildest coaching carousels that I can remember. Got 21 new offensive play callers in the league this year. You got all these free agent movements. We've still got some people left on the board. You know, if, if you were looking at the offseason from a dynasty chaos perspective, uh, what letter grade would you give it?

Is it an A, a B? Is it an F? Where, where's the, where's it on the chaos meter? How successful was it shaking things up.

Alan: Is chaos, good or bad? I mean, that's what we have to so is now it'll you know, um, uh, Scott Pianowski, who works over at Yahoo!, he always talks about like that, uh, the NFL's a snow globe league, right? You shake it up, everything changes. So I, I like that. I mean, I don't like when players that I have on my dynasty roster lose value.

Right? But then what, what's more fun than when you have players that have lost value over time and then all of a sudden come back from the dead? I mean, so it's, it's always like from my, one of my most important dynasty rosters, it was an a plus from other ones, it was like a C minus. So the best example is Ken Walker, right?

I took him in a, in a rookie draft in like a two or $300 league, I forget what it is. And then it was, I took him over Drake, London, remember that was a big debate a few years ago. Take the elite running back or take, you know, the elite wide receiver. And up until like two weeks ago, Jeff, like I, I just, that was always one of my worst picks I ever made.

Right? And now you look Ken Walker is probably what, like a top six or seven ranked dynasty back and who knows if he's gonna produce like that, but I say it like this is that get outta jail free card, right? Like I could probably, you know, if somebody needs a running back, get a a, a wide receiver like Chris Olave or Garrett Wilson for someone like that.

So that's chaos in a good way. The bad way is when you have, you know, quarterbacks that, you know, when you in a startup draft a couple of years ago. And you're like, all right, I'll just take JJ McCarthy. Okay. I'll double tap that with Jordan Addison. And all of a sudden, JJ McCarthy and my Tua teams are, are literally like, they're filled with backup quarterbacks, and now I'm trying to make deals for like Aaron Rogers and, and Jacoby Brissett to be my starters.

So, um, you know, when you play in like a, a, a ton of leagues like we do, how many leagues are you in by that way right now?

Jeff: I'm, you know, I'm just in 15, so I'm still, I'm still, uh,

Alan: dude, that's insane. Fifteen's insane. I, I started at 41. I'm paring it down. Uh, but yeah, I think from a chaos point of view, it, it's always good because guys, you know, that's what's great about this. It's, it guys go up and down in value over the course of like three, four years. So always good. Uh, a, A for chaos because I always root for chaos.

Jeff: Yep. Yeah, chaos is fun. Chaos. That's why we love in March Madness. Right? We actually love it when a 15 seed beats a 2 seed, even if we don't end up liking that next round matchup, because the 15 seat gets blown out by the 7 seed. But, uh, you know, we talk about, you talk about Walker, we'll talk to him a little bit more here in a minute.

Is, is there, are there any other guys who you're, who you're targeting, any of these other sort of guys who are coming back from the dead as you put it, that you're really looking to try to pick up right now, either in trades or if we were doing a startup draft? If you were, you're starting up.

Alan: Yeah. The, the whole idea of like, you know, uh, there's a different. A couple ways to, to attack this. Like some people like to see the re like the, the situation before you buy into it. Other people where I tend to fall is I, I wanna try to run into the burning building when nobody wants 'em. Right? Like, you know, buy tyreek, you know, try to trade for a player like Tyreek Hill once Tyreek Hill signs, right.

It's, it's over. You can't really trade from 'em because the buy price and the sell price are different. Right. So, I mean, it, it's trying to, it's basically trying to find like the unsigned players, the ones that nobody wants right now. Uh, that, that I think is real. Like, is it a good time to trade for a quarterback like Michael Penix, right?

'cause there's a lot of uncertainty, his injury. If you, in that league where you said you needed quarterbacks and you were having trouble buying them, I mean, it's gonna be impossible to buy Baker Mayfield or Jared Goff or any QB in that like 13 to 18 range. You're gonna have to like dip into like the late twenties.

So I think that if I was in a position where I'm trying to buy quarterbacks, it's all the ones that are either. Have a, a, you know, have real competition now. Like, is it a great time to buy JJ McCarthy? I don't know, but those are the type of players that I'm always looking to buy. The ones that have like perceived, uh, that are either like dead for Dynasty, um, you know, Justin Fields to be another one.

Right? Like, could he have like a month Right now if Patrick Mahomes doesn't start the season, if he starts on pup to have like top 15, uh, quarterback production, right? Like that's how you piece it together. So I'm always like looking through, like it's the worst time right now to buy Alec Pierce, right? He, he's getting $29 million a year.

He is the clear, uh, alpha mark for what seven to 10 targets a game, uh, by most projection models. So I think that's, it's more of like, forget the players. It's more like the situations. Um, do you have the stones to run into the burning building? Is that how, like are there any specific players that, that you're thinking about that fit that bill?

Jeff: Yeah, I'm actually thinking about like a Kyler Murray type of players who has been underperforming based on the very lofty standards people have when they drafted him in the early promise he showed, played on a lousy offense there in Arizona. Uh, Kyle lost compared to lose interest in it if you're just sort of watching body language.

And I think a, he's the kind of player like a, a Sam Darnold sort of resurrection story that, that in his new surroundings may, may gel perfectly and, and have a couple of really good seasons. But I mean, even players, you know, you mentioned like, like JJ McCarthy, you've got Tua Tagovailoa, you, you've got players who are not necessarily going to be long-term career. You know, superstar kinds of players, but even the Kenny Picketts of the world gave you about 60 starts before the league finally moved on for them. So if you are in a Superflex format and you need a second or a third quarterback, or you or me and our four quarterback leads, and you need a second, a third or fourth and a fifth one, uh, then these are some of the guys that, that I'd also be looking to target.

And, and I think you're totally right about someone like Alec Pierce that that horse has left the barn. Don't chase the high price guys. Now chase the low price guys.

Alan: I might even argue it's too late on Kyler, right? Like Kyler Murray. You could have gotten probably if you, if let's say you're in a, uh, rookie draft and you finished, like in the third to last position, you have 1.03 and 2.03. I bet you a month and a half ago you could have maybe even acquired Kyler Murray for like that 2.03 pick, right?

Like, now forget it. Like you're not even gonna get him for like a mid first round pick. Like he is the dynasty mind. The dynasty Twitter, the Dynasty podcasts, uh, have all basically given Kyler Murray that job. You know what I'm saying? Like it's, I mean, you could probably get him cheaper than you ever had before.

But look, let me ask you this. You were just talking about like Kenny Pickett and his career starts, who's gonna have more career starts starting today. JJ McCarthy or Kyler Murray

Jeff: Uh, I don't know, uh, you know, uh, how long of a horizon are we talking about,

Alan: for the rest of 

Jeff: turn into a great quarterback five years from now? The question, you know, in the next couple of years, probably Murray at this point,

Alan: Okay. That, and I,

Jeff: be the cheaper buy since everyone's out on him right now.

Alan: I think, and right, and wasn't it the other way, six months ago.

Jeff: Yes, absolutely it was.

Alan: That's what I'm saying. Like if I would've offered you that when Kyler Murray was basically not coming back and, you know, and, and looking to be traded in the off season. So that's what I'm saying, like, look how different it is right now. And I think the consensus agrees with what you just said.

So when you talk about like dynasty buys, I don't know, I like to, to go through like the dented can bin and like see, see what's in there and see what kind of, you know, because it's too late to buy these other guys.

Jeff: Yeah, it's what I, you know, dented cans of looking at it. I like to call some of these guys the Island of Broken toys. I mean, these are players who have been injured, who have come off really disappointing seasons, largely because they've been hurt. They've been kind of cast aside folks. I'm thinking like Najee Harris at the moment is one of those kinds of guys, what's your attitude on, on, on those kind of broken toy dented can kind of guys this time of year and some of those guys like Harris hasn't landed anywhere yet.

Alan: Yeah, I mean, that's the best time to get 'em right? Like this is what we're talking about here, is that it, it's just that nobody wants to go, you know, give up rookie bicks right now for those guys, right? I mean, everything you hear, uh, on any sort of content or like fantasy football podcast that you, is, that the 2026 class sucks, right?

Like the pick stink, nobody's gonna be good from there. Like, what are the odds? That's true. Probably low, right? Like, sure, there'll be some that are bad, but isn't there gonna be a guy that we draft in the second and third round of a rookie drafts that's gonna be a top 50, uh, desired dynasty asset? Like just by probability, right?

Like, so that's what I'm saying. Like, I, I know it's like, it's not great process just to, you know, throw a dart, but I mean, if you want to trade one of those picks. For Najee Harris. If you think Najee Harris can get starts, um, you know, I think that those are like great vibes. Like Brian Robinson. Nobody wants him right now, right?

Everyone, he was a desired trade piece when he was backing up. Christian McCaffrey did now end up working out. But yeah, I just, I love all those like disgusting names. Like you call him the broken toys. Like, you know, even in like the receiver uh, bin right now, is it the perfect guys to buy right now are the ones that, um, have bad publicity?

Troy Franklin, nobody wants him since the Jaylen Waddle signing, right? I, um, I saw up on like some projection models that Troy Franklin, they cut like his, his targets in half, right? Uh, on unlike credible projection models. Now that's a clear sign. Troy Franklin right now is WR62. Can he be a top 50, top 40 wide receiver?

So, um, yeah, it's go, it's so easy to go and say, Hey, I wanna go buy Bhayshul Tuten. Right? It's so easy to go any of these names that are hot right now. And I know that there's been, uh, I mean, Jauan Jennings would be a good buy. These are the type of players I know, like there's also a sentiment that says they don't mean anything in Dynasty.

I mean, if you play in these leagues that had start like 10, 11 players hitting a single, hitting a double matters, I don't need to hit a home run on every single one. Now, if you're in a league where you start nine players, then yeah, obviously you wanna push everything to the top. Try to get as many studs as you can. So yeah. I love what you just said about the broken, like, let me ask you a question, Tre Harris. 

Jeff: Mm-hmm. 

Alan: Nobody wants that guy. Right. Is he a roster clogger or could he be the one that emerges some of these guys that just didn't fire last year? They could have some serious fantasy football upside as well. Now is the, the probability's low, but you're sitting there with rookie picks in the late third, fourth round.

I mean, I don't know. Those are the type of players that I wouldn't mind taking a second chance on it because you can hit and it end up being like a Quentin Johnston type who for the first month of fantasy football last year, I mean, he was trading for like first round rookie 

Jeff: yeah, yeah. He showed that, that, that flash of what, uh, of, of what, you know, he was capable of. And then, uh, and then that was that. Um, but there's always, there's opportunities of the player like that with that kind of talent and just that, that inconsistency of playing. You mentioned Troy Franklin. I actually have him at WR48 in my dynasty rankings. So I, I am valuing him quite a bit above consensus. I think he's still got lots of talent. I still think he's still got lots of trust from Bo Nix and so I don't think he disappears. You know, when you mentioned someone like him or, or Tre Harris and, uh, Harris is not ranked that high on mine.

Alan: Yeah, these 

Jeff: you. Oh, he's, uh, 68, so I have him at WR68 on, on my, my rankings right now. You know, whether he's a roster clogger or not, it's kind of a function of how long your bench is. If, if you're talking about 20 people on a team. Yes, he's a roster clogger if you're talking 27, no, I think he's, he is as good an option, he's as good a low, low end of the bench kind of churn player to tee to take and hang onto because he is basically, you know, at worst, interchangeable with anybody else who's in that same general area.

At best. He's somebody who starts regularly and, and perhaps more often that, especially if you're in a league where you've gotta start six wide receivers.

Alan: you know, you said it right because I played in leagues worth 20 bench and like third round picks are like almost a bother to have, right? Because you pick a guy like a, a Trevor Etienne last year and now you already have to drop 'em right 

Jeff: Yeah. Dropped him immediately. 

Alan: Yeah, our, our league that we're in, like that is like that, like, it's not like a big bench and those late picks, it's like, I mean, you gotta, of course you gotta take them into dart throws, but man, look at some of the receivers on the consensus rankings that you could probably buy with those guys that'll give you good starts. 'cause we also start in that league, Jeff, we start five receivers. So Devaughn Vele, WR112 on the consensus rankings. Um, Cooper Kupp, WR105. He looked good in the Super Bowl, right? I mean, in the NFL playoffs, those guys in the consensus rankings, um, basically are on your waiver wire in the league we just described here.

So, yeah, no, it's, uh, uh, of course you want to go buy the sexy names and you should try to do that, but it's, you know, I almost feel like it's, it's cheap advice sometimes, right? Oh yeah. Go buy Bijan Robinson, right? Nobody's selling 'em. Right? 

Jeff: Yeah, 

Alan: Go. If you have picked 10, 11, and 12 in your rookie draft this year, you, you throw that in front of the Bijan Robinson guy. He might not even, he might probably mock you in the chat for sending him such a crappy offer, but if I told you, Bijan Robinson's worth three firsts. Oh yeah, that's the going price on a lot of like, you know, social media threads and content, but it's just so, everything's contextual. Like you said, bench size is probably the biggest one that we never talk about.

Jeff: Yeah. And, and if you're listening or watching and thinking about, you know, some of the dynasty content that you often consume, it, it is aimed at some of these shorter bench sort of situations. Like almost every waiver wire article that I can find during the regular season talks about guys who've been gone for months or perhaps years in the leagues that I'm in.

And, and so that's, that's the thing to always keep in mind is that yeah, if you're, if you're a short bench league who only starts nine guys and spending draft capital to get someone like Devaughn Vele is probably not a, a great move. I mean, perhaps it isn't. You have to really count him taking off. But if we're talking about 27 bench spots and you start 14 guys and we get into buys and injuries, Devaughn Vele is playing for you at some point in the season. Uh, and so he is worth not just leaving, uh, in the, in the closet or in the dust bin. Go ahead and pick him up.

Alan: All right. You didn't think it w we were gonna have this type of, um, podcast where we're talking about like Devaughn Vele and Jerry Jeudy, and, I mean, look, your, your podcast serves like the, the hardcore dynasty audience. Right. So I figure that's it. I mean, it, it, it serves us no good to talk about like, well, JSN you know, it's like, yeah, okay. He's a first round startup pick. We 

Jeff: yeah, yeah. I'll take you. I'll, I'll send them to you for four 2027 first-round picks.

Alan: Right. Exactly. Exactly. And you.

Jeff: I don't want 26. 2027s only,

Alan: Uh, let's, let's, can we get into that for a second here? What is this obsession with 2027? Why? Because there's a few good players at the top. I mean, how the hell do people know? And I get, listen, the market is what the market is. You see, like on some of like the keep trade cut type sites, the 27 picks have more value in it.

I just feel like you hear this once people bite into it and then it just, it rolls. If, so let's say these three, the three receivers that are premium, you know, Lemon, Tate and Ty, uh, uh, Jordyn Tyson, yeah. Are all, you know, modest hits, top 24 receivers in Dynasty, which I see now, how the heck can next year's class be even better than that?

Like, you know, sure you have a couple guys at the top, but I, I, I just never understood and I guess there's probably a buying opportunity 'cause anyone I know wants your 27 picks and they just do not want your 26 picks. So, I mean, do you buy into that type of hype? Like, I mean, 'cause you, you've heard it, I mean, or.

Do you think that there's, there's some validity to it because you're watching a ton of all of these guys?

Jeff: Uh, I think there's some validity also. It's hype too. I mean, we don't know what's gonna happen, you know, 18 months from now, 12 months from now, we don't know what this college football season's gonna look like. I mean, coming into this most recent season, people were going gaga over all of the quarterbacks who are gonna be coming out this year and how spectacular the class is.

And we end up with Fernando Mendoza and some other guys. Uh, you know, the NIL money for some of these other guys is starting to run out after next season. So I think the class is gonna be bigger. It looks like it might be better, it may not be, but when a, when a, especially now looking at the 2026 class, if I need quarterbacks. And I'm not sitting on 1.01 or 1.02. I'm not getting Mendoza, and I don't know that I wanna try it up for him because I don't see him as being a generational kind of talent. The kind of a guy who's gonna really swing dynasty fortunes one way or another. So that kind of pushes me into a future season.

And 2027 seems to be as good as any right now, and I've been sort of leaning that way for, for, for a few months. I think too, though, Alan, to to, to just a general point of strategy, future firsts are relatively cheap compared to current first, because there is the unknown of who's that, who's There And there's also that sort of psychology of immediate gratification.

A 2028 first does not deliver immediate gratification. So I'm actually looking, I I, I've kind of built this philosophy of stockpiling picks out in space because that gives me maneuvering room and it gives me trade ships to use later. I don't have to, I don't have to take these picks. But it's nice to have them versus not.

And so, I mean, I am in one league where I'm rebuilding. I've got four firsts next year. I don't know that I will use all four of them, but maybe I will. But it's just nice to know that as particularly as a rebuilder, I've got that. If you are a contender, if you're a Win Now team and you can get a good piece of the puzzle for a 2028 first or even your 2027 first, I say go for it because this is the chance to win that 2027 first is probably not going to help you win if you're already there.

Alan: I, I like what you said about like, you don't even have to make those picks, right? The four firsts that you have. Like, you could, you could buy players once other, you know, I've seen um, uh, smart Dynasty managers that are like in eighth place and like week four or five, right? And they have all those firsts and then all of a sudden they're like, you know what?

I'm gonna make a move here. I'm gonna offer a, first I'm gonna get Christian McCaffrey, right? And then I'm gonna offer another first, and which is, and I'm gonna get two other like, you know, type of players that could just fill in my lineup. And they went from like fifth to like four, uh, sorry, the bottom five to fourth in the league.

And then all of a sudden they've used three of those. First they have one more hammer, right? And then, yeah, so you're right. You don't even have to make those rookie picks. I think that probably is a mistake that I've seen people in my leagues make is where they sell off all their good assets. They sell Davante Adams two years ago for a first round pick.

And then, you know, they just take some random wide receiver that doesn't pan out in the first round. And now you're back in the same situation with what you just called, like a less like flexible asset there. So yeah, man, that's the, that's the push and pull of like having those bullets in the chamber versus actual production on the field.

I, I, that's something that I think we all understand in theory, but I've had yet to see like somebody like really work that that whole thing because we get so enamored with these rookie picks and then all of a sudden we're like, oh, okay, I wanna draft all these guys. Right? So 

Jeff: Right. And and there's also, you know, there's a doubt. I know I certainly face, I don't know if you do that, if you are in eighth place after five weeks, looking at that two and three, one in four record and being hammered most of the times that you don't think to yourself, you know, if I just got Christian McCaffrey, I'd suddenly be in the top half of this league. Because you seem to feel like you're in a much worse position than that. It's almost like, let's do a fire sale, let's get some more picks, and let's reload next year. When if you've already got some picks, you know, start your reload. Now you, you don't have to reload by the draft. In fact, that's actually probably the worst way possible to reload because we don't know what any of these players are going to be.

We don't know what the class looks like. Uh, and we don't know what they're gonna become once they, once they enter the league. If you can get an asset that's performing now and it's gonna materially improve your chances of winning, then, then do that. But if you are in eighth place and you start down that path, you better be willing to finish it because otherwise you're not contending and now you've lost that first round pick you could have used.

Alan: Yeah, I mean anytime like look, if you go to like a swimming pool and just dip your toe in, you try to go in slow, it doesn't work. You just gotta like jump in or stay out of the water, right? Uh, and a lot of times, like, yeah, you might be in eighth place, Jeff. I know I've been there, but I'm like, two winds out of being in fourth or you know, fifth or whatever it is.

I mean, I think like, you know, we also get caught up in the, um, you know, points, four points against, but sometimes that could be a little misleading too because of start sit decisions, right? Like, I mean sure you probably wouldn't have started, uh, you know, where you like Jerry Jeudy over Chris Olave and that's the week that Jeudy had a hundred yards and two touchdowns, but.

For the most part. I, that's why, I mean, I think it's counterintuitive and it's probably, it's, it's a, uh, I'm on an island alone, but I'm always going for it. Sure. When you get to the end and there's like five, six games left and you're a bottom three team, you know, it's probably better to have the first pick than the third or the fourth.

But man, uh, for all the reasons we outlined there, I, I'd still think that there's ways to like, to go for it. And if you get, there's a way to be a seller and a buyer in the same season, right. Like what we just talked about. 

Jeff: Absolutely. So as, as you're kinda looking at, you know, we're entering the, the entering the draft, we're coming up on 2026. Is there an off season storyline that you think dynasty managers are sleeping on and they really need to start paying attention to?

Alan: I mean, stor, what's funny is like there's nothing that's, that's nobody doesn't know about anymore. Right? But I, we brought it up earlier, but that the Alec Pierce thing, I, I think that he's still being a little bit slept on, right? Like, I just think that it's normal when we've seen a player for like four years just be this sort of bit player air yards guy.

And you know, we've seen little hints where he is, come on and he's been a good player, but man, they just paid him $29 million a year shipped off their, their old alpha, right? They signed their quarterback, who by all being, wanted him back. Uh, I don't, I, I think that, that, uh, we talk about not buying players that have hype.

You could still get a player like that because there are people. Self included to a degree that are anchoring to like what Alec Pierce was. It's so easy to tell yourself that story that a player like that where, you know the contract is there, the talent is there is a top 12, top 15 dynasty wide receiver at this time next year.

Right. And it's, it's hard to envision like, eh, you know, top 24. I'm just look, let's see. On the consensus ranking, let's see where Pierce is right now as we talk. So do I think people are sleeping on it? No. It's one of the most talked about things right now, but it's like Luther Burden or Alec Pierce. Who do you think is like a better, who do you think is a more valued dynasty asset today?

Jeff? Not better player. Who do you think is a more valued dynasty as asset?

Jeff: Uh, you know. Lean Burden on that just because, you know, I mean, he, he's a little younger. He is in a little bit better system and, and I think that, you know, Pierce is now kind of trading at his peak. There is still room to go there, but I, I think what's being expected of him, the money that he's making may not be something that he can just really, truly deliver on as the true alpha.

With the other Alpha gone as, as the beta, I think he was outstanding. We'll see if that translates into him being an Alpha or not. Burden, of course, is neither of those things. He is in kind of a, a, a choose your own adventure offense right now. But the potential I think there is, is really high and the price point relative to the value, I think you can get back.

I, I'd go with Burden over Pierce, but as you say, I think you make a great point. There's dynasty managers who still see Pierce as that guy who either catches an 80 or a touchdown pass or he gives you a zero, in which case. You know that that 2.03 is looking like a pretty good value for someone like that if they're not really paying attention. And while I don't believe we should just go out and absolutely fleece people, people should win both sides of the trade. If you're not paying attention to Alec Pierce's signing, then you kind of deserve to have 'em taken out from under you. Mm-hmm.

Alan: Yeah, no use. And I, right now, consensus rankings have burden at WR16 and Pierce at 30. Right. So this illustrates the point. You've said that you'd rather have Burden, but it, it, to me, it's like burden's in this crowded offense where he'll have, you know, pop weeks and unless if you're, he's one of your three receivers, you're gonna start every week, you're gonna capture all of that good.

But if you're in a situation where, like if you're, let's say you're starting, what Luther Burden is one of your three receivers, and in the first two weeks he has 2 for 28, 3 for 36. And then another similar line, I don't know if, if fantasy managers self included are gonna have the balls, the chutzpah, they say to stardom again, right.

Whereas someone like Pierce, I mean maybe he's in a similar situation, but I just feel like the, uh, it. That's the guy, the original question was, what storyline are we sleeping on? I think that the storyline that Alec Pierce should be in the, in the right there with Luther Burden, he's got a less crowded situation.

He's, he's clearly been given the keys to the car, right? He is, he is the, the captain now. And Burden though, we saw the sexy upside, like it almost, it re not that he's the same player or anything like that, but Kadarius Toney, remember when we saw him make those joystick moves and we're like, what? What did we just see?

We just saw that with Burden. But there's, you know, Colston Loveland who, who goes ahead of all those guys in Redraft and then Rome Odunze where the, there he's still, you know, a top 10 real life NFL pick. And then of course, you know, they're gonna run, run the ball a lot, like any team is gonna, you know. But, um, I, I just think that like, there's, there's a, a storyline that's not being told about Alec Pierce.

Um, he has his detractors for good reason, but I would have him up there above Ladd McConkey, certainly above the rookies like Tate and Lemon and even Rome Odunze, uh, I mean, uh, Pierce is a top 15 wide receiver in Dynasty, uh, at this time. Next year almost seems more likely than not to me.

Jeff: Yeah, I mean, I, he's, I think he's gonna have a really solid season. His question is, is it, is it going to be that like top 15 and if so, is it as your alpha, is it your second receiver? Because if he is like even top 25 as your third or fourth receiver, you're winning championships with that. So he's,

Alan: Yeah, I have higher expectations for someone like that. I think that's a storyline that people are sleeping on right now.

Jeff: Yeah. Anything else that, uh, managers are getting wrong right now in this, uh, this window between the free agency and the draft?

Alan: Yeah, I mean, it's just to bring it back to where we were is like, I, I still think that like buying production now, buying age now on, you know, I mean, doesn't seem one of my favorite fantasy football strategies, Jeff, is to take a look at the dynasty rankings versus the redraft rankings and find the largest gaps.

Right? So. Mike Evans might be like a good example of something like that, where in redraft I expect him to be what, like a fourth round pick and then dynasty in a startup draft, probably, you know, eighth or ninth round pick because he's perceived as a one year mercenary. So I think that, again, overvaluing youth, it's, it's, you know, youth is sexy.

Youth. Youth gives you liquidity in these picks. But I think that that is a storyline that it's not just this year, it's every year we overvalue youth. We undervalue aged production. So, uh, that's, I mean, it's not gonna change from me year to year. That's gonna be how I play and some of my teams will age out.

But, you know, I always feel like if you have an older team, if you have the Derrick Henry, Davante Adams types on your rosters, Jeff, that those guys are easily sellable at the end of seasons when di when contenders need some, some production now.

Jeff: Yep. Absolutely.

Alan: Any and what are, so, are there any storylines you think that people are sleeping on that's not being talked about enough right now in the dynasty off season that you're seeing in your, in your league chats?

Jeff: Yeah, I, I think one of them, and, and we won't know how it plays out as we do a lot of storylines until after it happens, but I do think that this incredible change in offensive play calling is going to mean that a lot of what happened last season is not going to be indicative of what's going to happen next season, and

Alan: What's an example? Gimme an example of that.

Jeff: Well, I mean, let's look at, say, Philadelphia, where, where Sean Mannion has come in. I mean, Patullo's offense was basically four guys run deep, uh, down the field and, and we'll see what happens and, and now we have kind of a very much of an unknown quantity. Whether A.J. Brown comes back or not, that offense is going to look quite a bit different than it did.

So if you were disappointed in Philadelphia assets as a dynasty manager, better times may be coming. But of course, we have no idea what Sean Mannion is actually going to do or be as a playcaller. This is Philadelphia's second consecutive turn with a rookie playcaller. Last one didn't work out. Maybe this one works out better, but there are a lot of folks who change places that we, we need to sort of be paying attention to. Whatever happened on that team last year is not what's gonna happen this year. Even with the same pieces in place, those roles are gonna shift around, and if we're not at least thinking about that, we're gonna lose opportunities to either pick up value or we're going to give value away accidentally, uh, in trades with other people who are a little more attuned to these changes.

Alan: Yeah, that's a good one. So you're, you're valuing like the coach and the play callers. Uh, that's, you know, I've always wondered, you know, is that a little bit overvalued, but you're making a great point right here. I think I, I think you've persuaded me a little bit and I'm thinking now, it, it forced me into like the Denver Broncos situation, right?

Like, we always like Sean Peyton as a playcaller and you know, we, we mentioned Troy Franklin at the top of the show here and now Jaylen Waddle goes over there and I think that, you know, Jaylen Waddle, sure, he's probably a little bit more valued now. Um, but as far as like, to get back to your original point with which, which one of these storylines is, is a little bit sleeper, I think that Jaylen Waddle has more upside than I think that dynasty managers are, are giving him credit for here.

[00:39:11] Now let me ask you this. Pass attempts alone, right? Like Denver's perceived, uh, you know, maybe that they spread the ball around, where did Bo Nix rank? I got this wrong when I asked myself this question in pass attempts in the NFL last year.

Jeff: He was tops, wasn't he? He was very close to the top if he wasn't number one.

Alan: Number one. Number one, right? I think there was, and now listen, you're very in tune with this, but when I asked myself this question, I said, where the hell did he rank? I thought it was like, I thought he was gonna be like 15th, 16th. I didn't realize it was like 615 passing attempts. And then, you know, it wasn't even close.

I mean, now you can argue over the quality of those attempts, but point is for a defense first run team, right? You're still gonna be plenty to go around. And when Denver Broncos are paying a first round pick and more to bring in Jaylen Waddle, will they spread the ball around and give him six targets, or will he have an opportunity for eight plus right there?

I think that that's a storyline that's surfaced. It's bubbled up a little bit with the trade, but I still think that it's a little bit undervalued and he, you know, waddle would be a target of mine, um, in dynasty leagues especially, where you start three plus more receivers.

Jeff: And I think too, even Alan, you're thinking about is it gonna be, is he gonna get six, six or eight targets or are they gonna spread the ball around? What if it's both? You've Nix led the league in passing attempts last season. He sends to Waddle 10 targets, but because Waddle is locked, getting locked onto by other people, that opens up the door for someone like a Troy Franklin to now get six or eight targets that perhaps he wasn't getting on a consistent basis before. 

Uh, but it also doesn't necessarily mean you play collar in Denver that Bo Nix is gonna throw the ball 615 times either. Uh, but nonetheless, I mean, the, the potential is there for lots of opportunity if the, you know, it's on target of course, but I mean, that was also part of Waddle's problem in Miami as the passes weren't on target.

And so he was having to do a lot with very little, he can do a lot with, a little bit more, I think, in Denver, in, in a fresh start situation. And, and with just a better energy around it than the, the tear down that's going on, uh, in South Florida.

Alan: Do you think this is an upgrade, downgrade, or neutral move for the production value of Waddle over the next two years?

Jeff: I think it's an upgrade from where he's been over the last couple of seasons. I don't know that it is an upgrade over that superstar season he had a couple years ago when everything was clicking just right for that Mike McDaniel's offense in Miami.

Alan: Yeah, that's, I think that's the right answer. And also remember it was wasn't Tua, didn't Tua lead in those seasons? Have one of them where he led the league in passing yards? 

Jeff: Yeah. Yeah. He was actually pretty good. One of those seasons. So we, we kind of forget that when we watch him struggle the last few years. But he was actually pretty, pretty good.

Alan: Yeah. And we've seen Sean Peyton since, you know, you're, you're valuing the coach. And I think that there's a lot of validity to that. I, I, again, I I probably think it's a little overrated except when it's really bad or really good. Right. But like, there's probably a huge part of the bell curve in the middle.

That makes sense. But yeah, Mike McDaniel was one of those right answers. Sean Peyton over time has been one of those right answers. I mean, Sean Peyton's had two top 12 running backs for fantasy football with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram before. He's made players like Lance Moore, who I think we could all agree was, you know, kind of a bit player, uh, fantasy relevant at times.

Michael Thomas, right? Uh, Michael Thomas wasn't like some super athletic superstar player. He was just like, you know, a guy that got, what, 170 something targets? So, yeah. No. I, I like this for Waddle. Um, do you, I I have, well, I trade in that league that you and I in, that you keep referencing. I traded, uh, my, my, uh, 1.10, I guess that's the 'cause the 10 person league for Waddle.

And I was a little bummed about it, you know, 'cause I was like, oh, what did I do there? Probably could've done something better. But now I feel like there's hope again for that pick. So good call there.

Jeff: I, I think that that ended up being a great move. And, but I'm with you. At the time it was like, well, I don't know about this, but you know, the, the one 10 is not the, not the best, uh, draft pick to have. And of course you could still hit an absolute superstar there as you can with just about any pick, but that the odds of that start dropping dramatically after you, you, you start moving toward the back end of that first round. Uh, that was my show last week was all about the, those draft probabilities, uh, historically and how those hit and where those kind of cliffs are. 

Uh, and, and while one of 'em is not at necessarily 1.10, it is definitely a significant step down from say, 1.08 or 1.06, and definitely those, those top pick. But we're, you know, we're entering into that. I mean, we're always here, but we're definitely at this point entering into that sort of buy, sell, hold period. And we've talked about some of these guys already, but I wanna recirculate them and also kind of talk about what they've left in their wake, either where they departed or what they're doing to the teams they're going to, and the players that are there. And I think we should start with, with Kenneth Walker, because he's probably the hottest commodity out there. And the guy that if you have him, you should probably hang on to him unless they offer you a king's ransom for him if you don't have him. Be prepared to offer a king's ransom if you want him.

Alan: Yeah, with Walker, um, uh, you know, I have a little bit of a different viewpoint because I've had him on a, on like an expensive dynasty league this year, and I just had to eat like this inconsistent, you know, I know once a year he was missing games and it, it's, um, it's like I, I, I'm okay getting out for something that like, this is the one opportunity I have to get out.

Right? Because it's easy to see the other side of it too, where he, he goes into Kansas City, um, Andy Reid's a little bit past his play calling prime, right? I'm just telling myself this story where Walker's good, but he's like, ends up being like RB13, like a Saquon Barkley type season from this past year where you're a little disappointed, right?

So I'm trying to balance where I know he's valued as like RB6, RB7, RB8 right now in most dynasty ranks, is this the time where I trade him and get out for a wide receiver who's on the way up again, like I, I mentioned Chris Olave, I mentioned Garrett Wilson. Who's depressed right now versus where he was in the fantasy ranking.

Can I get Drake London for him, which is the guy passed on a couple years ago to take Ken Walker. So, uh, I'm still, you know, just sitting here waiting. And it seems like when you, when you go listen to any podcast or radio show and you say, what's the most impactful, most meaningful, uh, free agent move universally, everyone said Kenneth Walker, right?

Like, and for good reasons. We've all we've been wanting the last five years is running back to the Chiefs. Give me Javonte Williams to the Chiefs. Oh, they draft Clyde Edwards-Helaire, that's the guy we want. But I just wonder if that is a little bit overrated at this point. I mean, the Chiefs, you know, for many different reasons didn't even make the playoffs last year.

And then Mahomes obviously getting hurt, but, uh, I wonder is this the time to cash out on him? If I have him now in a dynasty startup, you're gonna want him and redraft. I could see the case for him going in the first round at some point, but man, am I really conflicted because I have been holding onto this guy with no chance to trade him. I think last year. 

Jeff: Yeah, 

Alan: Somebody made me an offer of Courtland Sutton and D'Andre Swift. And I wasn't offended by the offer, but I was like, great. But I was like, Walker's gonna be a free agent. There's a chance he lands somewhere. And you know, and it's kind of, uh, so where I land on someone like that, Jeff is, I mean, where are you at? I need him. I certainly need him. But would you cash out for, you know, I'm just, look here, I'm gonna give you a list of names 

Jeff: Okay. Yeah,

Alan: Would you, would you cash out on him for Tet McMillan?

Jeff: I very much so might, yes, I would certainly consider that. It would depend on the context of my team, of course, as to where I was in, in running back or wide receiver. But I do have a natural bias toward wide receivers over running backs anyway. Uh, you know, I I, I do hope my leagues stay around for nine or 10 or 12 years, and so I want folks like McMillan to be on them.

They will be on them longer than the Kenneth Walkers of the world might be. Uh, so I might lean that direction. Um, you know, we, we, we are coming in hot on Walker, right? We, we are seeing a Super Bowl MVP. We are seeing what he was capable of when he was the only guy. Now that was after a period of an entire season where he was. In a committee. So he was well rested, relatively speaking when he got to that point in that that playoff, uh, run for Seattle. Uh, and we're also sort of dreaming about what might be in Kansas City, the, a return to form of a team that has been kind of falling apart offensively for a number of years. The cracks have been showing, um, I think the Super Bowl loss to Philadelphia really revealed that that offensive line was a problem.

And that really continues to be, they're working on it, but I don't know that it's there. You have an injury in Mahomes. Kelce's older, the receiving corps is still the receiving corps. Can Walker be a superstar? Of course. I think he's probably a little hot for where he's gonna finish. So if you offer me, you know, a young receiver, there's an alpha on a team for Walker, there's a really good chance that I will, uh, either accept or, or, or want a little extra piece, like gimme your 27 or 28 third with that and, and you got it.

Alan: Yeah, to see that people don't value thirds like that, but they're deal closers, 

Jeff: They are deal closers

Alan: So, yeah. 

Jeff: Love thirds. 

Alan: Yeah. I mean, so how high up the, if uh, how high up of a pick this year would you do it? So let's say for example, you have Walker and the guy with the 1.05 says, Hey, so you're gonna get a player that everyone likes. You're gonna get one of the three receivers, right? Presumably, um, would you trade away Walker for that? 

So you have and forget context to say like, Hey, I'm just building value on my roster. I could start Bucky Irving and, you know, and, uh, Kenneth Gainwell, uh, you know, and another just, 

Jeff: Some other guy. Yeah. 

Alan: yeah, some other dude you like, so just straight up, you know, one of the 1.05 for Kenneth Walker, you, you're letting go of Walker.

Jeff: I might, I might, especially if, uh, if I know that there's someone else in, in the, uh. In that league who might really want one of those three wide receivers. Because again, we don't have to take the picks that we trade for.

Uh, we often only see kinda one move out and it's like, well, if I trade for Walker, I'm getting one of those three wide receivers. No, you're trading for the opportunity to get one of those three wide receivers or something else.

Uh, particularly if somebody else really wants one of those wide receivers or perhaps for the way your draft breaks. You know, Carnell Tate is the one who ends up at 1.05 and someone's really in love with Carnell Tate, and you're not, then that's an opportunity to have flipped that 1.05 for something else, which goes back to what you just traded Walker for.

So you actually end up increasing the value of that, of that price point, uh, uh, uh, relative to the, to what you spent to get there. So, you know, I think, yeah, I mean, to me that's a, that's a deal I'd probably make depending on where I am in running back.

Alan: Yeah. The problem is that, you know, we're in, you're in 15 leagues, right? You're in 10 leagues and all these drafts are going on at the same time, and it's hard to make deals, right? You, you forget even like who you're talking about, you go into your sleeper chat or whatever, and lord forbid you're on multiple platforms, right?

I've tried to con, like nowadays someone says, Hey, you wanna join my m uh, three different platforms you're in.

Jeff: Yeah, I was on four. I'm down to three. So we're, we're working in the right 

Alan: What else? What else? 

Jeff: Yeah. MFL, sleeper and uh, uh, ESPN.

Alan: Okay. Yeah. I mean, if someone, someone asked me to be in a dynasty league nowadays, like I am, the first question I ask, is it on Sleeper? If they say no, it's like I just stop the conversation like it has to. Now, by the way, do you think there's maybe an opportunity for an app that consolidates all your leagues into one, one app now?

Jeff: Absolutely. And I think there's also room for an app that has MFL's flexibility and Sleeper's user interface because they, they each have some strikes and they have some weaknesses. And so I think there's, there's an opportunity out there for an aspiring app builder to build a better mousetrap when it comes to leagues that, uh, have some complexity to them and might even have higher value sort of customers who might be willing to pay a little bit for, uh, a host that really gets the kind of league they're going for. 

'cause you know, you and I are, I, I won't speak for you, I'm kind of attracted to weird combinations of rules. Like we have, I have a managed best ball league where you, you hit it's best ball, but it's a dynasty and it's short bench, and you have to manage the bench and you have to do waivers. You have to do all the things and that combination's really tough to work on any particular app either because MFL is MFL, uh, or because Sleeper didn't support some of the features. Like we couldn't have a taxi squad this year because Sleeper doesn't have that turned on for best ball leagues. So ...

Alan: you just add more like, and again, I know 

Jeff: but we did, we we added more, more, more bench spots. But that wasn't the point. The point was to have a place to park your, your young talent, not a place to add, you know, an additional wide receiver who's a veteran. Uh, so the point though there is that if, if you're not just in a straight up one quarterback, two running back, two wide receiver, one tight end, two flex kind of league, there's a lot out there and the app makers aren't quite caught up to us.

But if someone else wants to do that, the, the market's right there and it's ready for you. You just gotta do it.

Alan: right. But you know, if you charge 99 bucks, 79 bucks for it, you know, people are complaining like, oh, these other ones are free. But I mean, people pay for MFL though, so maybe 

Jeff: pay for MFL. 

Alan: Right. I don't understand. MFL had the market. I don't know what the hell they were thinking. Not updating the interface. Not updating, like, not even ever having an app. Right. It was always third party apps that like, I guess they just didn't, you know, maybe it's Blockbuster. Right. Remember, Blockbuster didn't see Netflix coming? Right. They were where they, they passed on buying it for like $10 million, so. I don't know, man. I mean, Jeff, nowadays that people are, they're moving away from, you know, football, gaming.

I mean, you see it with like, companies like Underdog moving into the prediction markets. So I don't know if innovation, uh, I'm nervous is not, is gonna happen from any of the big companies. I mean, what CBS like added Dynasty like a year and a half ago, that's a good step in the right direction for the mainstream sites.
 
But when you're talking about servicing hardcore players, uh, I'm worried that industry as a whole is moving away from fantasy more into sports betting slash prediction market stuff. So, look, we're gonna have to piece it together and figure out more about like what hardcore players, dynasty players are gonna wanna, uh, have to play on

Jeff: Absolutely. Absolutely. 

Alan: conversation.

Jeff: Well, that's, that's, that's the audience though. I, I think if, if, if you're watching or listening to this, it's because you're a hardcore dynasty player. It's not because you're in those quarterback two running back, two wide receiver, one tight end, and two flex leagues.

Alan: Dude, there's people listening right now that are like, yes, I hate Sleeper or No, I hate the MFL like I, I a hundred percent. Like, listen, I, we could talk about player takes trades off season stuff. Love it. I love it. But I think this is the type of stuff that every fantasy manager experiences, right?

Flipping between the apps. This thing doesn't have a taxi squad. This one has got, you know, the worst interface. I don't know how to even, I, I've been playing on MFL for, you know, better part of a decade. I still can't cleanly get to the waiver wire and make the, the pickups. I, I, I still don't know how to do it. So, 

Jeff: yeah. I miss things like, uh, that week Drake London went off. Uh, he was still on my bench in MFL because I, I, when I looked at the thing, it didn't say what I needed it to say, and so I just missed it, but.

Alan: Well in the, in the era now of agentic AI, right? Where you're gonna be creating all these agents via Claw and, and all these different apps. Maybe you could have it, like, make your pickups for you and, and, and set your line up. And then obviously it would just like do it all and then you would just, okay, the moves, right?

Like there's gotta be a use case for like OpenClaw where you're, it's doing all your picks based on, it could scan all the leagues across the high stakes, across a sleeper, whatever platform you're on and actually make, I mean, to me that would be a real use case for some of this, uh, of the agentic AI stuff.

Have you gotten into any of that stuff yet?

Jeff: I, yeah, I'm, I'm starting to get into not necessarily the agentic part, I'm still old school and old generally, and so I like to have complete control over what my computer is doing at any given moment. Uh, and maybe it's because I saw "War Games" when I was around 14 or 15 years old and learned that you don't give, you don't give, uh, sentient computers, control of anything. 

And so, uh, agentic AI scares me in that sense. But I do sense though, 'cause I know a couple of guys who are kind of working in that general direction, uh, on using AI as a tool to help manage leagues and, and it, it's not a stretch at all to, to do, I think what you were describing Alan, a year ago, and I told you, you're kind of nuts now.

I think you're right on the edge. And next year I'll tell you that you're behind. If you're still thinking that, that may be in the future, because I think it'll happen

Alan: Oh, yeah. And, but I don't want to have to like use Python or like code to do it. Like, I want to be able to talk into, like, I don't even wanna type it anymore. I just 

Jeff: no. I wanna talk into the thing 

Alan: right? And just say, Hey, create, uh, I want you to do all my waiver wire pickups in weeks one through 12. I want you to, you know, figure out what the optimal bid is and then bid two, you know, $2 over that.

Like, you know, and again, obviously it's gonna have a 61%, you know, hit rate or a 40%, you know, and you adjust it as you go right there. But, uh, yeah, just being able to like, talk to it and play it English, uh, I think that's like the next step of fantasy football. But then the argument back, Jeff is like, are we even playing fantasy football anymore or is my AI playing against your AI?

Jeff: right. Well, you know, I think the way if, if, if it, the technology lines up in a way I'm comfortable with it. Between now and next season, what I will probably do is maintain. Full down to the last detail control over my, my flagship kind of leagues. And then I may let an AI manage some of these others because I have found that, uh, 15 leagues was a lot for me.

I'm sure there'll be more of this coming season, uh, when I spend half my Sundays answering start-sit questions on Discord until five minutes before kickoff and them scrambling to make lineup changes based on the advice I just gave. Uh, that may be something that the AI can handle for me during that timeframe for the leagues that aren't my biggest priorities. But I'll still want my, uh, I'll still want our league we're in to be under my thumb because I, I don't wanna trust an AI to set my fifth quarterback. 'cause I, I could, not that I'm any good at doing it myself, but, uh, I don't really wanna trust it either.

Alan: Are you? That's your task at, at Football guys. You are, you're, you're the guy in the Discord helping out start, sit on game day.

Jeff: No, I'm one of them. I'm one of the guys. I, I'm not, I don't always do it every week and, and I'm not the only one, but I, I, I will do it. I actually enjoy doing it and I. Uh, I always try to answer with the question rather than, especially for Dynasty, because it's like, well, I don't know whether you should make this straight.

I mean, there's a lot of, there's a lot of things that go into this. So I can be frustrating at times because I'll ask things like, well, how do you feel about wide receiver? You know, are you strong here? Are you contending, you know, how many, how many wide receivers do you start? Uh, I ask questions like that 

Alan: Yeah, exactly. Yeah. No, I, um, there's no worse situation in, in like Dynasty or like in any fantasy football saying, Hey, who should I start? Jaylen Warren or JK Dobbins? It's like, it's 50/50, right?

Jeff: Yeah. Coin flip guys. Yeah. I don't know. Yeah. Make a choice. Be at peace with it. Don't keep waffling back and forth between the two of them all morning on Sunday. Just pick it and be done and, and be at peace. 

Alan: A hundred percent. You nailed it right there.

Jeff: Alan's new show on SiriusXM, The Dynasty Hour, premieres this week and will air on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Fridays at 1:00 PM Eastern on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, Channel 87. So be sure to check that out.

But our conversation isn't done. Alan will be back and we'll be picking up right where we left off. We'll also be discussing the dynasty impacts of free agency, not only on the free agents themselves, but also how their departure from one team for another affects the fantasy prospects of both, on Dynasty Compass.

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