On the Clock? When to Trade That Rookie Draft Pick with Pete Nova

Your rookie pick is never more valuable than when it's on the clock, and the trade window is open. Should you make the pick, trade down, or trade out? Jeff Blaylock sits down with Pete Nova of PlayerProfiler to break down the strategy behind trading picks during your live rookie draft. Knowing when to sell, when to hold, and what to ask for can be the difference between winning and spinning your wheels. Whether you're sitting at the 1.01 or staring at a late third you're not excited about, there's a strategy for every spot on the board.

💡 Key Takeaways

• A pick's value peaks when it's on the clock — certainty is the asset being traded, and knowing your league matters before you try to use it.
• Rebuilders with the 1.01 should always be listening to offers, not just taking the pick. Drafting a player without offering trades or considering trading down for multiple assets is malpractice.
• Moving from an early first area requires a proven player in return, not just picks. A.J. Brown is the kind of asset that justifies dropping a few slots.
• Moving up in the second round means targeting running backs. Wide receiver hit rates are too low to justify burning assets for a late-second receiver.
• Third-round picks are prime candidates to trade for veterans if you're contending, like a Rachaad White or J.K. Dobbins, or opportunities to invest in intriguing tight end prospects.
• Future non-first picks are throw-ins. Future distant firsts should be valued like seconds because the uncertainty is real.
• The person holding the pick on the clock has the leverage, but if you're sitting on a pick you don't want, smart opponents will smell it.

⏱️ Chapters / Timestamps

00:00 – Intro
05:06 – When Is a Draft Pick's Value at Its Peak?
09:26 – The 1.01: Buying and Selling the Top Pick
14:04 – The 1.03 Tier: What It Takes to Move Down
16:34 – Second-Round Strategies
21:49 – Third-Round Picks: Veterans, Tight Ends, and Futures
28:06 – Your Guy Is on the Board: Draft Now or Negotiate?
35:15 – Who Has the Leverage On the Clock?
39:52 – Deciding to Trade Down vs. Move Out Completely
44:10 – Buying the 2027 Hype?
47:16 – How to Value Future Picks in an Active Trade

🔗 Links Mentioned

• PlayerProfiler Dynasty YouTube
• Follow Pete Nova on Twitter/X
• Jeff's Dynasty Rankings
• Follow Jeff on Twitter/X 

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Transcript

Jeff: Rookie draft picks are the currency of the realm in dynasty fantasy football, and there may be no better time to trade them than when they are on the clock during your rookie draft as it's ongoing. My guest today is Pete Nova from PlayerProfiler, and he's going to share some strategies about when to trade draft picks that are on the clock, and what to trade them for and what to do when you're trying to trade for a pick that's on the clock.

That is next after the stomp on Dynasty Compass.

[Theme music]

Jeff: Welcome to Dynasty Compass. I am your host, Jeff Blaylock, the other Jeff B from Footballguys, and I'm thrilled today to be joined by Pete Nova from PlayerProfiler. Pete, thanks for stopping by and welcome to the show.

Pete: Yeah. Thank you so much for having me on. It's, uh, it's an exciting time with, uh, this off season with the draft, uh, and everything else. So I'm, uh, super excited to kind of dive into it with you.

Jeff: So we are recording this right now, a little bit before the NFL draft. So things that we say or talk about may be very different when you watch or listen to this.

But before we get even to, to all of that, uh, Pete, why don't you tell everybody how to find you and what you do for PlayerProfiler?

Pete: Yeah, absolutely. You can find me on X at @SuperrNova38. That's with two Rs. Um, and yeah, I'm working over at PlayerProfiler. Uh, I'm kind of spearheading our new dynasty channel over there. Uh, we're about a month and a half in, and we're at about 200 subscribers, so, uh, we're gaining some traction there. Uh, I host the Dynasty Stock Market show, uh, which comes out every Wednesday live.

And then I also do, uh, have a show on Thursdays, uh, with my co-host Wyatt Bertolone. And, uh, that's a lot of dynasty talk too. So it's that time of the year. Uh, so there's nothing really better to talk about than Dynasty right now.

Jeff: And what got you into Dynasty in the first place? 'cause uh, I, I know that you are a D/ST whisperer in your fantasy life as well, but that, that's not typically in Dynasty. So what was the, what was the move into Dynasty for you?

Pete: Yeah, I, I've had a home league for going on about 15, 16 years now, and, uh, it's very intricate where you, it's like a mixture of auction and serpentine, which is kind of a neat twist. Um, and we've always tried to. We always wanted to have keepers. And with the way the format is set up with it being very different than your normal format of, you know, just straight serpentine or straight auction, um, we just never could kind of fit it in.

And so the next best thing was just trying to try Dynasty and we figured we had a bunch of really good guys, uh, that had been, uh, playing with us for a long time that we knew would be committed to, to doing something like that. So we gave it a try and like everything else, uh, years ago, um, you know, you've learned, you've made a ton of mistakes.

But, um, yeah, I just, I just love the idea of growing and building a team, especially if you have a good league, which is really, really one of the most important things.

Jeff: Yeah, you, we just, uh, talked with, uh, Joey Wright, uh, earlier this week about community and the value of that in fantasy football. And I know I certainly would much rather lose in a really fun league than, than be a champion of a league that, uh, is intolerable.

Pete: Yeah, the, the comradery and the community of being in a good league, I mean, the money's great, but most of us aren't doing it for the money. Uh, I mean, it's nice to tell our spouses if we have them, uh, that the money we invested in these leagues, uh, did give us some sort of return.

So that does help. Um, but it's really just, it's usually the bragging rights and, uh, you know, the, the rivalries.

Jeff: Yeah. It helps when the, the habit pays for itself. That that is definitely, definitely true. So talking about rookie drafts, when do you like to have your rookie draft?

If you could put it anywhere on the calendar and that's the perfect spot, and all of your drafts were right there, what would it be?

Pete: Definitely after the draft. I'm not somebody who prefers before the draft. I mean, some people like the mystery of, you know, oh, I, I, I watched the film on this guy. Um, I, I, I, I loved his Combine. I loved, you know, the Senior Bowl and all these things. But like landing spots are so important, right?

I mean, we could do all the studying we want on these guys, but, um, landing spot is key. And so I always prefer the landing spots. And I also, I understand that most guys in my league, while we're all looking for an edge, there are some guys that, they kind of hit the snooze button after free agency, right?

And so they're not gonna be like super on the up and up with guys that aren't in the first round of rookie drafts, especially in a weak class like this year. So I like to give those guys — as a good commissioner, I like to think I'm a solid commissioner — uh, I like to give those guys a chance to kind of get up to speed there.

Jeff: We're gonna talk a lot today about what, what to do when your pick is on the clock and making trades. But when would you say a draft pick's value is at its peak? Is it when it's on the clock? Is it, you know, just before, is it right before your draft begins? Is it in the middle of the NFL draft?

When, when would you say the value of a draft pick is gonna peak?

Pete: Yeah, I mean, typically I'd always say it's when the draft is happening, but the other side of it is you have to know your league. And if you're not in a, in a league where there is aggressive trading, there is a lot of movement, it's gonna be hard to make trades while you're on the clock. Right?

There are, there are some leagues I've been in where, you know, I'm, I'm on the clock and I'm sitting there, you know, everybody knows it. When you're on the clock, everyone sends a chat message to everyone saying, I'm willing to move back and this pick's available, and then you're sitting there for an hour or two holding the whole league hostage, uh, because people are, are dying for you to make their pick.

Uh, because nobody has patience, including myself. Um, and, uh, you know, and then, and then nothing comes through. So, I mean, if you're in a league that likes to move picks and make trades, then it's always gonna be in the draft for me. Um, and I think if not, then, then yeah.

I mean, like, if you know your draft's gonna be after the NFL draft, I would say like right between when the NFL draft happens and your actual rookie draft. So if that's a, a month, two months, a few weeks, um, I, I like to kind of pinpoint that area because people get rookie fever and when they start to see those landing spots, they start to picture what they could get, um, with your pick.

And so early on, like, in the off season, January, February, that that's gonna be when the picks are the lowest.

Jeff: Yeah, the picks are, are abstractions really that early in an off season, because we don't know necessarily where, where anybody's gonna be. We don't know who the, the darling rookies might be.

Of course there's nothing really certain about draft picks. I mean, there's nothing certain about the player you're gonna take. The folks last year who, who really fell in love with, uh, Matthew Golden, uh, know that that didn't work out as well as if they had taken somebody else.

Uh, so there's no certainty in who you pick, but there is a certainty when that pick is on the clock because you know what the board looks like and you have that choice of a specific player. Uh, is that really what makes that the pick more valuable when it is on the clock — is that certainty that whoever takes it is gonna get their guy?

Pete: Yeah, I definitely think that helps, right? It helps with painting that picture and helping somebody, you know, visualize what they could get for a player, right? I mean, you know that when you're on the clock, you control everything that you can control. If you are trading, you know, in the future, uh, before the draft happens, you don't — exactly, you know, especially before you get draft capital, right?

I mean, we know in a class like this, uh, take the Seattle Seahawks, right, who have been rumored to, you know, maybe take a running back with that last pick in the first round. 'cause there's really not much out there. Maybe a Najee Harris landing spot, like, uh, there's not really much, much available in, in free agency.

And you know, if they go and they take a guy like Jadarian Price, who, you know, a lot of the big guys have kind of mocked their. Um, Jadarian Price kind of moves up the board pretty substantially. Um, you know, right now he's ranked, uh, in a lot of places between, you know, the 1.11 to, to the even the 2.03.

You know, a lot of people can't, can't, can't figure out, they're trying to pick their flavor outside of Jeremiyah Love at the running back position. And so if, you know, if a guy like Jadarian Price gets first-round capital, like I have a guy like him moving up as high as like pick seven, pick six, right? In this class, because, uh, gotta be honest, the, the price of running backs right now in Dynasty are extremely inflated.

Uh, and so, you know, that helps when you're on the board and that's why I try not to trade, uh, for picks unless, you know, unless I feel really confident that there's, I'm trading into a tier that, uh, is gonna have a couple of guys that I'm gonna like, if I don't know that draft capital just yet.

Jeff: Yeah.

And then at that point we have a little bit more information about the players, but still not necessarily when they're gonna be available on our own draft board. So when you're thinking about that, that certainty, I mean, there's obviously no pick more certain in terms of who you're gonna get than the 1.01, because you know already if you have that pick either who you're gonna take or.

The, the, the mother lode you might wanna trade it for. So what would you say if, if, if you were trying to, if you had the 1.01, you were looking to sell it, or you were looking to buy the 1.01, what do you think the, the, a fair premium for getting that certainty of saying, I got my first choice of anybody, any rookie at all that I want when that pick comes on the clock?

Pete: Yeah, I think if you're, um, if you're a contender and you are a team that maybe has a CMC and like a Derrick Henry on your team and you really, you know, your team's pretty well balanced across the board, like that might be a team that goes up and gets a 1.01 for like a Jeremiyah Love, because you're kind of giving yourself a chance to reset at the age clock on that position, and you're in a window where you can compete now, right?

Like Jeremiyah Love can absolutely — running backs, a guy like him can still be a building block for a team that, you know, is not competing this year. If I'm a true rebuilder, like I'm, I'm not going up and giving up assets for Jeremiyah Love, um, honestly, like I would try to reassess the board and see if, if maybe it's worth trying to, you know, move back into a tier that you like.

Um, but with the 1.01, if I'm moving up, you know, I, I would consider maybe moving up. Maybe moving a player to a contender that's needy. Maybe, maybe you talk to, maybe somebody that has the 1.01 is a guy that just got really lucky and they ended up with the 1.01, but they're a team that's ready to win now and they don't need a running back, but maybe they need a receiver, right?

And maybe they A.J. Brown news drops and he gets traded to the Patriots. Maybe you trade like an A.J. Brown plus, you know, a mid first pick this year. Maybe somebody would be willing to do that. Everybody's always gonna try to, to, you know, rob you for that 1.01. So it's probably never a good idea to trade up to go get that unless we're talking, you're within like three to four picks of that spot.

Because if not, you're really gonna pay a hefty price. It's gonna be, you're gonna have to really thread the needle to, to get adequate return on investment there, uh, because you're taking a really big risk.

Jeff: And if you are rebuilding, do you go ahead and take that 1.01? Or are you shopping that to see if what more you could get, if you need, if you need multiple bullets in the chamber, for example, do you, do you look to actively trade 1.01 for additional capital or players?

Pete: Yeah, I think if, if you're a rebuilder, um, you're not in a position to just say, yeah, I'm just gonna take Love at, at the 1.01. You could. I'm not, I'm not saying you can't, you don't just sell it for nothing, but you would be making a, a very foolish mistake to not listen to offers and even send offers and try to be aggressive.

Right. I mean, more bullets in the chamber. We all know, we're, we're, none of us are perfect, right? If we were, uh, we'd be working in a front office somewhere, uh, and be making a lot of money doing this. Uh, but the truth is, you know, the more chances you get, you know, the more opportunity you have to hit on a player.

And while I really do like Love and I'm not very concerned, even with his landing spot, I'm not concerned on where he goes. If he goes to the Titans, Tony Pollard had a thousand yards last year, I'm fine with it. If he makes his way to the Saints and splits time with Etienne, I'm okay with it, even if it goes to the Chiefs or the Commanders.

So I'm okay with whatever the landing spot is, but I just think it's malpractice when you're that far behind. Especially, you know, if it was last year's class and you wanted to take a running back and you liked Hampton at the 1.03, I'm okay doing stuff like that and while still looking to trade back, because you're probably not getting a Godfather offer, you know, for the 1.03, 1.04 in this class. This year's class.

It is, it is very, very murky, very gray, um, outside of Jeremiyah Love, that you can get probably more this year than you could in years past.

Jeff: Yeah, I, I, I agree. I think you've got basically the one generational prospect here, and then a lot wide range of outcomes for a lot of people after that.

If you were at, say, you know, the 1.03, what, what would it take to get you to drop, to say 1.08, 1.09?

What would it take to get you to move down there?

Pete: Man, uh, you're making a really, really, uh, risky move here. So it's gonna, to me, it's gonna take a proven young player, um, or if I'm a contender, a good player, like. I've been advocating and I was, uh, for A.J. Brown. Like, A.J. Brown is a player the last four years who has been a top — a number one wide receiver inside the top 12 in points per game four years in a row, right?

I mean, and there's possibility he gets a situation to upgrade where he goes to the Patriots.

So that would be a guy that I wouldn't mind maybe, you know, grabbing like A.J. and moving back to like the 1.08 area. If I had the 1.03, especially if I'm a contender, 'cause I say, alright, I'm getting a player that's gonna help me win now, it's gonna put points in my lineup.

Everybody wants the prettiest looking roster, uh, in the league that they can take pictures of in the off season and tell everybody how great their roster looks. Look at all these rookies I got. This is how you rebuild a team. But then when the games play, the only thing that matters is points.

And a guy like A.J. is a guy that can get you some points if you're a contender, even if you're kind of getting close to being a contender. I think he still has a few years. So A.J. is a player that I would like to target. Um, you know, maybe if you're looking for someone maybe a little bit more high end, you, you can maybe take a chance on a guy.

Uh, like you're probably looking at maybe more running backs. 'cause whoever wants that 1.03 is probably targeting a wide receiver at that spot. So maybe it's the 1.09 and, um, you know, maybe you're looking at a Kenneth Walker maybe. I mean, he's, he's really inflated his value.

I would say maybe like a Chase Brown, um, maybe even like a CMC. Uh, I mean CMC, if you're a contender too, he can help you. And I think he's still got at least one or two more years of top elite play.

So, um, that might be a move if you're looking for a running back, but also wanna pick to help kind of rejuvenate and maybe back him up. Maybe you can get Jadarian Price, uh, at the 1.08, 1.09 if, uh, if he goes to Seattle, uh, depending on what league you're in too.

Jeff: Yeah. How about, let's, let's move down now into the top of the second round.

How far do you think you could actually realistically get, uh, if you were trying to move up and get some of these top guys? I think 1.01, 1.02 would be completely off the, off the table here, but maybe you can think of a package that would do that.

But what about like 1.05, 1.04, 1.06, somewhere in there? Does that sound a little more realistic? If you're sitting at 2.01, 2.02.

Pete: Yeah, I mean, you could definitely do it. You're gonna have to add a player. So kind of the same argument. Um, you're gonna have to add a player to that because — it wouldn't — even if you have like the 2.01, you're not going to, like we're talking you're four quarters to make a dollar, kind of a thing where it's like, you know, you're, you're trying to add up a bunch of assets to, to equal the value of one player. Um, so I mean, if you were trying to move up, you know, if you had a 2.01 and you were trying to move up to the 1.05, I think a realistic offer could be, uh, like a Luther Burden, right?

Who maybe you're not, uh, you're not in on, you know, how much the hype is, how high the hype has gotten, where this guy's a top 20 dynasty wide receiver right now in startup ADP — I mean, he's going as like WR15, WR16 right now. And you drafted Luther Burden in many such cases in the second to sometimes even the mid second round.

There was a time last year where a lot of people were getting really good value on Luther Burden. So you're already getting return on investment by, you know, trading him plus a second and going up and getting that 1.05. If you wanna re-roll on one of these receivers that maybe you really like, maybe Makai Lemon finds, uh, you know, himself with the Rams, and maybe you really like that landing spot.

So that might be a guy where you're maybe trying to sell on a player that really has gotten inflated for, for, for not having that production. And maybe, maybe you're smelling that it might be a little bit more smoke than fire on a player and you're trying to get off of them quickly and you see that they're valued somewhere around that mid first.

And maybe you can move that to a player that's kind of buying into that and doesn't want to take a chance on these rookies this year.

Jeff: I wanna think about kind of in terms of you're a, if you're a contending team, there's a decent chance you don't have a first-round pick this year because you traded it at some point in the past to get assets that made you a contending team.

Now. So it's quite possible that a mid to late second-round pick is your first pick in this year's draft. Now, nevermind whether it's smart to move up in, in this particular class 2026, 'cause we can also look at 2027 where the values may be a little bit different. Is it, is it a good move, a smart move to try to move up from the back end of round two?

Uh, and if so, what would be the, the price for that, you think? What would, what would you be willing to do to move up from say, 2.09 to wherever you wanna move up to?

Pete: Yeah, I, I think this is a scenario where, you know, if the running backs start to really thin out and you're getting the feeling, um, that you're not gonna get one of those guys, um, it might be, that might be the only time I'm gonna move up to go get one if, like, I really like a guy, like if I, I really liked Emmett Johnson and he finds where he doesn't really get that Day 2 capital, but he finds himself in a really good spot and I liked him coming outta college.

Um, and he's kind of fallen to that mid second round. Yeah. If I have to go up a third round pick to go get him, I might do that. Right. Like that's — those are the players. At wide receiver the hit rate is very, very low. So if I'm gonna be making a trade in the second round, it's really gonna be to go get a running back.

'cause wide receivers, more often than not, they, they just don't hit, um, it doesn't mean that they can't hit. Um, you know, there's always gonna be the Puka Nacuas, you know, I'm sure there's always gonna be these guys that you don't invest a ton in that, that wind up becoming valuable. Um, but running back is really the safest bet to go make a move and go get somebody.

Um, and I know some people are gonna say, I don't really play dynasty or play fantasy to play it safe. Uh, but you know, sometimes that, you know, sometimes even just getting anything that could be valuable in a class like this, um, you know, getting any return on investment with a late second, uh, is a win. Uh, but typically if it was me, um, I'm trying to move that second to either acquire more picks and slide down because of.

The lack of separation in my opinion with talent. Um, there's not clear-cut players I say or tiers that I say like, yeah, this guy, you know, belongs in this tier. Like it is just there. It's a very big tier, I guess is the best way to say it. So more bullets in the chamber, I much would prefer. And if you can't afford to, I would rather just go try to get a pick next year.

Um, and, and if you can swap it for a second next year, you might not be able to, maybe you have to add a late third to go get a second in next year's class, but maybe somebody really likes a player there. You just really never know. And it's so league-dependent. But that would be how I would try to navigate it.

Jeff: I think that's the sort of trade that can't really be made when the pick's not on the clock, perhaps when the pick right in front of it is. But that's really not a trade I think you can make now and, and get a lot of value out of it because there's no telling what's gonna be on the board. It's quite possible someone is in love with, you know, the QB4 who goes off in Superflex, and he is right there and, and decides, you know, Cade Klubnik is, is my future.

I want him now, here's my second-round pick next year. I would of course gladly let him have that if, uh, I was sitting at the bottom of the second.

Um, if you're in the third, uh, and of course by the third round we're at dart-throw territory, but there are the Puka Nacuas of the world who come out of these third rounds every once in a while.

What, what are you looking for to move off of your third-round pick, and then what are you looking for to, to pick them up? And we're talking now really when it's on the clock. So, you know, the player you would be able to select, uh, you know, the player you'd be passing up if you traded the pick away, you know, they'd be getting if you traded for it.

What are the kinds of prices you're willing to pay and sell at that point for a third?

Pete: Yeah, and I should have said this too, with the mid to late second that we talked about before, but I'm looking for veterans, right? I, I, I think that that's something I didn't mention that I probably should have. But I'm also looking for veterans if I'm a contender, right? So if you have a third-round pick, like I, I don't hate going and trying to grab like a Rachaad White if you really need running backs, and this is a scarce year for running backs.

Like we said, a lot of players are very inflated and White signed a one-year deal with the Commanders. I, you know, there's, people aren't really in love with him, uh, to begin with. So a guy like him wouldn't be a terrible player to pick up. Maybe you go and, and maybe you can go grab when you're on the clock, like a J.K. Dobbins, I mean.

That's gonna be dependent too. But J.K. gets hurt, has gotten hurt a lot. He's not, he's super young. Um, so like I would try to maybe trade for, for, especially with the third, like try to trade for some veteran running backs. Um, and then if you're, you know, maybe can get like a veteran wide receiver too, um, that, that would be the moves that I would make if I'm selling.

Um, because you're probably, I mean, look, if somebody's willing to give you a third next year, by all means, like, uh, sometimes, sometimes you just look at the board and you say, man, I really don't know who to take here. I really don't love these players. And you just don't want to take the pick, right? So you might just say, you know what?

Like, let's just try to get something for next year. And again, we've talked about next year's class, a lot of people really like it. Um, and so it might be hard to get a pick next year, but when you're on the clock and people start to see somebody that they might really like — like third round, a lot of people start to like the tight ends, uh, in those rounds.

And maybe there's a tight end that somebody really wants to take a chance on. Now, if I was gonna trade for that, that's the kind of player I would try to trade for if I wanted a third-round pick — to go and get probably like a tight end, 'cause the hit rate's very high, uh, or, or is higher, uh, for those tight ends.

Um, and what I would be willing to give up for that might be a veteran, that, that's probably the perfect marriage. Like a Rachaad White, uh, if you don't need 'em and your team's kind of far away from competing.

Jeff: Yep. Yeah, you're, you're talking about trading a veteran for that third-round pick, and I was immediately sort of, uh, getting PTSD from the single worst trade that I have ever made in Dynasty, which was sitting on the clock in the third round of a draft. Uh, in 2023 and having an eye on a player, but not being really in love with him, not being sure about 'em, taking the safe route.

I traded for a veteran wide receiver. That wide receiver was Allen Lazard.

Lazard went nowhere and the guy I was eyeing was Puka Nacua. So sometimes you just really should go with your gut and take the guy you were thinking about instead of trying to cash out. But I otherwise, aside from that horrifying experience I had, I otherwise am with you that — if there's a, if you're not in love in the third round and somebody is, by all means let 'em, let 'em go.

Let 'em take whatever that is gonna be, because moving, at least into next year, whether the class actually turns out as good as it's hyped, it, it gets you something — more flexibility in the future than you have right this second. 'cause once a pick becomes a player, it's worthless. I mean, they, they just become the player.

But, you know, of course, so far we've really been talking about is a little bit of an abstraction, but, but really we're talking when it's on the clock, that's when people, you know, have that sense of certainty. But if you get sniped right in front of that, what does that sort of do to the value propositions that we're talking about?

If you're looking to sell, does your sell price drop? You just try to hold it where it is? If you're looking to buy, do you decide you don't wanna buy that pick anymore? You know, what sort of happens when the guy you think's gonna be around at 1.06 gets taken at 1.05 because somebody either reached or just really loved that player?

Pete: Yeah, I think it all comes down to the preparation at that point and, and having tiers, right? Like, rankings are, to me — look, everybody asks rankings, we gotta give rankings out, like that's what we do in content here. But the tiers are the most important thing, right? And feeling firm and convicted on the tiers that you have set out makes you a much better player.

And so if a guy that you really like gets taken right in front of you and you're like, that's the last guy in this tier, then you might sit and say to yourself, can I move this pick to go get two more picks behind me? Because you know this tier that I'm now finding myself in is much larger and a bigger drop off.

And so I want more bullets in the chamber. I know it sounds redundant to say that, but that's why the tiers are important.

Jeff: Yeah, absolutely, and we, we've talked about that on this show a couple of times in, in prior episodes — of knowing where those tiers are, because there's a lot of value to be had trading down within one, but a lot of value to lose to trade into the next one. Uh, because you, you are giving up a lot of value when you do that. But let's say that your, your pick is, is on the clock and your guy is on the board.

I mean, are you just to a point where you're just going to hit the draft button and take him, or do you really want to give it some time, hold the league hostage as you put it earlier, and see if offers materialize, or maybe try to make some before you, uh, smash draft? Or are you just like, to hell with this?

I'm taking him, let's move on.

Pete: We've all, we've all been guilty of doing both, right? We've all been guilty of — I'm doing it right now in a startup. Uh, while we're here recording, uh, I am currently in a startup at the moment, not a rookie draft, and I sent the league, I texted the league and I said, look, I said, I'm not — I got put on the clock like 10 minutes before we started recording and I'd said, hey guys.

I said, look, I am about to jump on a recording. I said, if, uh, you know, I'm not making this pick until I'm done, but, uh, if, if you've got any trades, send 'em my way. Right? Like, we've all been there, we all do it. And, and I think, you know, this is fantasy football as much as, like, it's the art of trading and selling and, and, and just being able to negotiate — like that's part of what makes it fun. And, and it's like, some people don't like that, maybe they're nervous or they don't wanna make a mistake. And, and I just say like, you gotta lean into that and have fun with it.

And, you know, part of it is psychology, right? Like, guys really want you to make the pick. And so sometimes they'll be sending you offers just so they can go get their guy, 'cause they don't have patience. So, uh, sometimes that'll happen. And so I'm always gonna be an advocate of just waiting and waiting.

That doesn't mean — look, you don't take your guy if you are super convicted, right? What I would say is, if you love the player, um, I would try to go trade for a proven player, not like trade for a boatload of picks, especially if you really are convicted and love a player. Like, I wouldn't tell somebody unless they just have a lot of holes, like we talked about with the 1.01.

Um, but if I'm a big fan of trading picks for proven players — like that's, that's a big part of my strategy — and so, you know, if you love a player, then, then the really only time I would move off of that pick is to go get a player and maybe a plus that I really, really like. Um, so I never really hit that button.

There are times I've done it before. Don't get me wrong. Um, you know, sometimes you don't want to get in your head either and overthink a pick because you're waiting too long. Uh, but I would take a breath. Relax, we got plenty of time before the NFL season starts. Like, take a few minutes before you actually make that pick and give your league mates a chance to go make you an offer.

That, that's the best way to do it. 'cause what's the worst that happens — unless you completely overthink the pick and you just somehow, maybe you have a drink or two, um, or you do something extracurricular, and, and you waited too long and then you just made a boneheaded pick.

But like outside of that, like you're not really losing anything by giving yourself some time to think about it and allow trades to come in.

Jeff: Yeah, I think that, you know, you mentioned that some folks just get impatient. It's like, the reason we have these clocks in place is so that we can take that time to make these kinds of deals. And if your expectation is people will make their pick within the first 10 minutes within an eight-hour clock,

I, I think you're, you're being unrealistic. You should be able to give people time. Do I think you should take the whole eight hours? No. Especially if you already know what you're going to do. But I do think you, you do need to give some time for offers to come in, for negotiation to happen. Uh, you know, that can take a little bit of time.

And so just, just be somewhat patient. So, you know, for this league that you're drafting, I'm happy to write you a note that you can take back to your league mates that says, you know, please excuse Pete. He was, uh, he was busy. Uh, but you were also talking about the psychology. And I want to kind of dig into that a little bit.

I mean, how do you separate the, the analytical from the emotional, when you are either looking at your draft board or thinking about a trade on or off of where you are on the board?

Pete: I think you, you, you prepare, right? That's, that's really the number one thing, right? Is, is you prepare. I mean, this isn't a job, this isn't life or death, it's fantasy football. We get it, but we're all competitive. We're doing this for a reason. We wanna win. Like, that's, that's the truth of it. So like I, I'm not gonna sit here and tell you that, like, I'm not gonna prepare.

I am gonna prepare. I would expect anybody that's putting their time and effort — this is a commitment. I mean, that's why I'm very hesitant to join new leagues for Dynasty because it's a commitment, right? Like we're putting time and effort into these leagues and I pride myself on being somebody who's gonna try to make my team better in the off season, who's gonna respond to trade offers, try to add people, even these really bad players that are on waivers right now that nobody really wants, just trying to find some sort of edge.

Um, but I think the biggest thing is you, you stay off the fence, right? Um, and the way you stay off the fence is by your preparation, right? Too many times, and I've, I've fallen into this sometimes too, and I'm trying to get better at it, but it's, it's trying to be like one side or the other on a player.

Now in life, that's not always the best thing, where sometimes people are, it's either if you're this, you're that, and you're this, you're that, or you think this way. Like, I try not to be like that. But in fantasy football, you need to have conviction about players or else you're gonna be swayed very easily.

There's a lot of really good videos out there, or really good editing and really good people, people that put good content out there that make you think, and you might really feel one way about a player, but you haven't done the research and you know, then you see something that's persuasive and you're like — or maybe you're on the clock and you look up a player's name on Twitter, uh, to just see like, what's the recent news about this guy?

What are fantasy analysts saying about this guy? And somebody sways your opinion. So I would say like, you just have to do your homework, um, when you're on the clock to not stay emotional, um, and to just stick to your process. If you have a good process, you can typically take the emotion out of it.

There's always gonna be times where you just say, I'm gonna get my guy, I'm gonna overpay for my guy. And that's fine. And if that's, if you have fun doing that, that's okay too. There's, there's not a wrong way to play fantasy. Um, but I would just say, you know, try your best to take your heart out of it. And if you prepare and have a process, um, for the most part, you'll, you'll make some level-headed decisions.

Jeff: Yeah, that's really, really solid advice there, Pete. You know, when we're, we're thinking about that, that emotion, even the analytics too — you say, this is the guy I really have to have, and you can get there analytically without getting there emotionally. Say, this is the guy I want. You know, when, when you're talking about that guy is on the board but I'm not on the clock, who's got the most leverage, or the more leverage, I should say? There's two parties here. The more leverage — the guy with the pick on the clock, or the guy trying to make the offer for the pick on the clock?

Pete: Yeah, it's always, it's always gonna be the guy that holds the keys, that has the leverage, right? I mean, unless your league mates truly know you're super desperate, right? Like right now, the guy that has the 1.02 in many such cases, uh, people assume like — gotta take Mendoza. You gotta take him in a Superflex.

Like you have to take him and you might be a quarterback-needy team, but you might not love the player. Um, you know, but people smell desperation and so they don't want to trade with you because they wanna force you into taking a guy like Mendoza, or they try to call your bluff and say, you're gonna take this guy anyway.

Right. And so, um, for the most part though, the guy that has the pick has the leverage. And that's why, you know, unless you're a guy like me who tweets 25 times a day and puts pick information about who I like out there, you keep things close to the vest so people don't know, uh, you know, what you're, who you're in love with.

So that way you can, you know, use that leverage when you're on the clock to, to, to make, you know, make some moves. Uh, but it's typically the guy that's got the pick.

Jeff: Yeah, it's always fun in leagues when people use your advice against you, which, uh, happens, uh, happens a fair amount, which I guess is good. 'cause that means I'm right more than I'm wrong. Otherwise it'd be like, great, they're using my advice against me, but it turns out I'm actually not that bad at this.

Uh, is there any point where that leverage switches though, where the guy who's offering has now got the power? Or does it just — wherever you are on the board, it's always gonna be the guy holding the pick?

Pete: Yeah. You know, when we were, I was looking at, you know, some prepping for this and I was thinking about this question. I, I, I would love to hear your take on this one because I, I was really trying to come up with something and it was just, I was blanking on it. So I, I normally don't do this, but I'd love to hear your opinion on this because I, I, I couldn't really find a good argument for it.

Jeff: I think for, for me, it would be kind of in that, in that where you're at the bottom of a tier, or you're, you've got the wrong side of the drop off, and you're the one holding the pick and you really don't wanna make it. I, I think that if you know — if you're at 1.01 and you can't get a deal done, okay, well, you end up with Jeremiyah Love, the best player in the draft.

Uh, that's, that's nice. But if you're at 1.11, you end up with some choice of a variety of running backs and wide receivers who in a normal year you might not use a first-round pick on, but that's where we are. And so that to me might be that kind of an instance where, where whoever's making a deal for that pick and doesn't want to add that extra third-round pick from next year or doesn't wanna give you this running back but they'll give you this one.

I think that's where the power may shift away from the person holding the pick, because it's when your desire to get out from the pick is greater than the desire of someone to get into it. I think that's where that leverage could conceivably shift, and being a really good negotiator might, might help you cover that fact up.

Uh, unless of course you said there's nobody you would take at 1.11 in a tweet and everyone knows this and they know that I won't use that pick no matter what — in which case I've already lost that leverage and we're not even on the clock yet.

Pete: Yeah, when people can smell the desperation and, you know, you're sitting here and like you said, like you're at the bottom of a tier, but you still don't really love the player and you'd love to get more ammunition, and people are sitting there saying, I don't really love the players either.

So I'll help you out and I'll give you a get-out-of-jail-free card, but not free. But I'll give you the opt out to move off it. But I'm not gonna be giving you what you're looking for just 'cause the pick says first round, right? And sometimes the, the label of first round in rookie drafts — not the NFL draft, but in rookie drafts — people, it holds weight.

Just, just the fact that it says first round, like, sometimes it's really not that far off, like a 1.11 compared to a 2.03, right? Like we're talking four spots off. And in a good class, that's, that's not a big difference.

Jeff: And in a lousy class, it isn't a big difference either. I mean, it's, it's probably all in the same tier of people. It's chance of course that tier may cut somewhere between them, but there's also a chance it doesn't at all. And you're talking about basically the same pick. Um, what, so, you know, we talked a little bit about it and you've mentioned a couple examples, but what really goes into that calculation of wanting to trade down?

And when's your preferred time to do that? Is it when that pick's on the clock and you can leverage more? Or do you just want to go ahead and get this deal done and get the assets you think you can get and move on before the draft even gets going?

Pete: Yeah. When we talk about the calculation of whether to trade down, I, I hate to keep pounding the point, but it really is the tiers, right? And, and the separation, right? I mean, not much to it in that regard. I mean, um, you know, I think if you are kind of looking at, like deciding if you're trying to decide between — is it worth it to make a move or not? Then, then that's usually always gonna come down to the tiers. Um, I don't wanna hammer that too much and, and repeat what I've said because it might just sound like I'm, I'm being redundant. But I think that kind of, I think we kind of answered that in some way.

Um, so I'd say it always comes down to tiers still for me.

Jeff: Yep. Yeah, I think that's, I think that's the smart approach because if you know where those tiers are, you know what you've given up to move down or to not move down. Uh, and then what about moving out completely? And you know, if you've got whatever you happen to have in this year's, Jeff, maybe you just aren't really that wild about anybody.

What makes you say, you know what, I'm just out. I'm looking for players in 2027 and I don't wanna deal with this.

Pete: Yeah. Uh, it's, it's if, if you don't have that conviction, right, and I feel like if, if I can't trade back and get extra picks or, uh, you know, get extra chances — 'cause maybe I, I, I like some guys, but I'm not in love with them — and I say to myself, is this guy really worth this high of a pick to be taking him here?

Or is it just that this class is that bad? And so that's when I would probably try to go after a pick in next year's class, or I would try to go get a veteran, right? Like, we talk about it, we've talked about it before, but I, I, I would try to go get a veteran that can help your team. Um, you know, and, and, and then again, it depends on rebuilder or non-rebuilder.

Um, if you're a rebuilder, you know, you would love to trade back and go get more picks. I mean, that's sometimes, I've seen guys that have traded back from like the 1.03 in a draft and they've ended up trading back before we get into the second round like three more times, right? And those are usually teams that are rebuilders and they just continue to accumulate and accumulate assets.

And where some people aren't, you know, in a position where — do they really, do you really need all of those assets? Is that worth it to you? Or is the player at that position that's available — is that ceiling high enough, and do you not have many holes on your team where it's just like, you know what, I'm just gonna take a chance on this guy.

'cause the ceiling's high. And if I make a mistake, I make a mistake. But, um, I, I don't need — sometimes you don't even have enough room. Sometimes your taxi squad is full and, you know, so, um, that, that would be where I would take that into account.

Jeff: Yeah, that's a great point, Pete, that you, you as someone who is, is, is drafting and watching your league mates and, and you see the number of picks that somebody might be holding and you think, who are they cutting to use these picks? Because at some point that, uh, that cut's gonna hurt more than the draft pick or just letting it go.

And so that to me is where you could get a pretty good deal on, on a second-round or a third-round pick, because they can't use it. I mean, there's nothing they could do with it.

Pete: And I've done it plenty of times. I've traded,

Jeff: Two.

Pete: I'm not going to have enough room. I gotta start making some moves here. Uh, because this, I'm not gonna be able to fit these guys under my roster.

Jeff: Yeah. And going through that in, in a league where I did just what you described a moment ago, I kept trading down a couple of years ago and I've accumulated — I've got three firsts this year. I've got four next year and two the following year. And I don't have places necessarily for all nine of those and everything else that I've accumulated.

But the, the joy is I don't have to take those picks either. I can trade, continue to trade down, or trade for players, which is more likely what I'll end up doing, uh, as I try to turn this team around.

But, you know, with 2027 I've been, I know I've been focusing on that for a couple years. Are you buying the hype that 2027 is a — I don't know about a special class, but at least a better one than what we've been seeing, or are you treating 2027 at this point like you would any future year?

Pete: Yeah, I, I think I'm treating 2027 — I'm, I'm buying into the hype just because of how bad this class is. And so if there's a possibility that I can accumulate more picks in next year's class, I'm definitely trying to do that, right? Um, especially if I'm a contender and I look at these guys and I say to myself, well, I'm not really getting a player or a veteran.

As I've said before, I'm not getting a veteran that, like, no one's, no one wants to give me a guy that's worth this pick, or I don't feel like I'm getting the proper value for a veteran. You know, then you might — the next-best move is to say, all right, well, 2027 it is, because the odds are this rookie I take here is not gonna help me win this year.

And the chances of next year's player pool being better seem much higher. Um, we do have to keep in mind — I mean, it was a little ridiculous, like before last year's draft where so many people are saying like, oh, can't wait for, you know, start trading for 2027 now so you can get Jeremiah Smith. And it's like we're two years away.

Like, how are you projecting that the pick you're gonna get is gonna be the 1.01? Like I, I've had, I've had so many people — I'll say, yeah, like, you know, I'm trying to trade for 2027. And I always say to people, 'cause they're like, this guy, it's — I'm gonna get the 1.01, it's gonna be Jeremiah Smith. And I always say, how do you know that?

Like, I could see, like if it's in a year from now, like you can start to get a better feel. But like when it starts to become two years, three years — like people will be like, oh, I traded this guy for a high 2028 pick. And it's like 2028, it's three years from now. How could you possibly know that?

Um, but yeah, so I am buying into it, but we also have to keep in mind that there's so much that happens from now until then.

We're projecting all these guys always come out, but guys are staying in college more because of NIL. There's money to be made. And so there's a chance that the class that looks phenomenal, guys make business decisions and stay back because maybe their camp is telling them, hey, keep sticking with the money, and we think you'll go higher next year.

So, um, I'm buying the hype, but I do, I think people are, are blowing it outta proportion a little bit. But when you are comparing it to this year, uh, I think it's very fair, uh, to say that, you know, next year's class is gonna be much better.

Jeff: Yeah, I like to say that the grass is always greener than what you're mowing. So we're in the lawn right now for 2026, and it, it does not look that great. But you, you mentioned that — our guy saying he's trading for an early 2028 and we have no idea what the standings are going to look like. We don't even know if the dynasty league's going to exist in 2028. But assuming it does, you know, I've talked about — I've got four firsts next year in one league.

You know, in my head they're like the 1.03 and the 1.05 and the 1.08 and 1.09, and there's a distinct chance they're the 1.09, 1.10, 1.11, and 1.12. Uh, because that's, that's the nature of, of Dynasty and how leagues move around. So when you, you know, when you're thinking about future picks and we, we've talked 2027 specifically because it, it does have a little bit more of an element of a better class, at least in comparison to this one.

How do you generally value those future draft picks when you're in the middle of a rookie draft, you've got a pick on the clock, an offer is coming in, and it includes picks from one or two years or three years in some leagues out from now? How do you value those picks in that timeframe?

Pete: Yeah, I, I don't — I, I value picks, um, in future years that are not firsts. I try to value those as throw-ins. Those are, those are the easiest picks that just get added into deals, especially if you feel like, uh, if somebody comes to you for, with an offer, like if somebody's asking for a specific player, um, you know, and you might be on, say, you might be on the clock, right?

And, um, you know, a person really, really wants a player at this pick. Um, and they come to you for an offer and you're kind of on the fence and you're like, I, I mean, I, I like the players here, but I'm not in love with them. I could live with not taking this pick. Right. I always try to counter and just add like a second or a third on, because a lot of times people just — when they are convicted and they really want a player, you know, they look at seconds and thirds and sometimes they get careless and they just kind of throw 'em onto deals because they just wanna get the deal done. Um, so I try to always, always add like later picks — those picks I don't always think are heavily valued.

Which it's kind of — kind of makes me into one of those people that says like, it's not a big deal if, if I really want a player, I'll just, yeah, you can take a second or a third. But like, I know that that's how I think sometimes when I really want a player. So I try to use that same thought when I am on a clock and, you know, someone's offering future picks.

Like I try to get those on the back end just to kind of make a deal go through. Um, so that's typically how I value it.

Now when it comes to first-round picks, if it's not next year's first-round pick, I, I almost value it in my head like a second. Um, you know, that's just how I — I don't know where the pick's gonna be.

Um, and it better — there's gotta be more to the deal. If I'm giving up a first in this year's class for that, then you're giving me a first in two years from now, like there better be a decent amount on the deal, because I'm valuing that always in my head like a second, because it's uncertain. I don't know if the league is gonna be even alive by the time that pick comes to fruition.

And, you know, the truth is, we have no idea what the draft class is gonna look like in two years, unless it was a year ago and everyone was talking about 2027's class like they did. Uh, so which will always, it is always gonna happen, but that's generally my thought process on it.

Jeff: We always think we know what the draft class is gonna look like. And then of course it doesn't look like that. We were gonna have all kinds of quarterbacks — you mentioned several of them — and LaNorris Sellers is another one that was gonna be coming out, and, uh, and that didn't happen. So, you know, as we're, as we're kind of making our turn toward home here, you know what, you've given this some thought.

Uh, what, what would you say is either the best on-the-clock trade you ever made, or the one you regret the most? I've already done the one I regret the most. We heard that earlier. Uh, how about for you? The best or worst? Either one, whichever's the better story.

Pete: Yeah, I'll, I'll, uh, the — I've made so many bad trades that I, I am, I am a creature of the, uh, move-on kind of thing. I, I, I like, you know what I mean? Like, I, I don't let it eat at me too too much unless I made a trade where I decimated my team, uh, which I tend to not do 'cause I'm pretty levelheaded in that regard.

So, um, I, it's kind of like in sports, like it's always next-play mentality. Like, I made a mistake, it's gonna happen, whatever. Like, I believe in my roster-building ability to kind of — you know, the Puka Nacua thing, that's one that would really sting just because of the return on investment was insane for what you drafted him for.

Um, but I would say, you know, in a more recent story, like last year, um, I had the 1.05 and Travis Hunter was available at that point. And I've — if you know me, I've been kind of very hesitant on the Hunter stuff. Um, I wasn't really extremely, uh, sold on how high he was being taken. I thought there was a lot of, a lot of risk to it.

So I moved off the 1.05. Um, I was able to get the 1.09, the 1.12, the 2.03, and I, I moved like a third with it, so it was like 1.05 and like a high third. Um, and I ended up turning that into Emeka Egbuka, Colston Loveland, and Luther Burden. And that owner ended up —

Jeff: That works.

Pete: Yeah, that owner ended up getting Travis Hunter.

They, I don't know who they took with the third-round pick, to be completely honest with you, but, um, that was a very real possibility. I mean, you had Burden, who was slipping into mid — becoming a mid second-round pick, uh, if it wasn't tight end premium. People loved Warren and some people were pushing Loveland, you know, even Loveland was going sometimes in the early second round, um, in some drafts.

And then Egbuka, I was very high. I loved Egbuka last year. I can't say I was in love with Loveland or Burden. Um, I won't, uh, I won't pound my chest because I wasn't, uh, the biggest advocate for those guys, though they did turn out well. And kind of like the Burden thing, it's like money in my pocket, maybe time to cash in.

Uh, but with Egbuka, I, I loved him so much. I kind of sat there and said, Hunter versus Egbuka — I don't really see a big difference there between the two of these guys. And I thought there was a chance I'd get Egbuka there with the running backs that were gonna likely go in between. So I took the chance and it ended up working out.

Jeff: That's, that's a great move right there. That turned out well. I was with you. I, I was very hesitant on, on Hunter and moved off of that pick 1.05 I think a couple of times last year for folks to go get him. And, uh, you know, he had a couple of games where it looked like they were brilliant for making that move.

And, and today it doesn't look brilliant, but it might, uh, it is six months from now, because things change. Lots of things change very quickly in the NFL. Well, uh, Pete, this has been a lot of fun. Thanks so much for taking your time hanging out with me. Uh, just remind everybody one more time where they can find you and where they can find your work.

Pete: Yeah. Thank you so much. It's, uh, been a blast. Um, appreciate you having me on. Uh, you can find me over at PlayerProfiler. Um, I am spearheading, like I said, the Dynasty channel over there. Uh, I do the Dynasty Stock Market, that will be live on Wednesday nights. Um, so we're, we're, we're chugging along there.

Um, also do First Class Fantasy with Wyatt Bertolone on Thursday nights. Uh, but we've been doing more prerecorded than live. Uh, and then you can find me on X at @SuperrNova38 with two Rs. Um, I do a lot of D/ST stuff in season. So if you like redraft, that's really my niche — finding edges, uh, when it comes to playing with defenses in your league.

So, uh, if that's your thing, uh, gimme a follow and I'd be happy to, uh, you know, give you some advice.

Jeff: Or alternatively, if you're stuck in leagues that still have that and it's not your thing, then uh, looking at what you say about it has, uh, saved me more times than I, uh, could probably say, because I, I'm not a D/ST guy. But, uh, Pete, again, thanks so much and thank you for watching on YouTube or listening on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast streaming site.

Uh, please like the show, please subscribe. Uh, the best thing you can do to help this show grow right now is to go over to Apple Podcasts. Give us a five-star rating. Drop a nice review about how this show might be helping you become a better dynasty manager and better fantasy football player.

And we will see you next week on Dynasty Compass.

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