Injury Myths Are Costing You Dynasty Value with Adam Hutchison

Dynasty managers misvalue injured players — and most of the time, it's because the conventional wisdom is wrong. Footballguys injury expert Adam Hutchison has tracked more than 2,000 injuries across nine seasons, and the data pushes back on some of the most common assumptions: about ACL recovery, about age and athleticism, about which injuries actually linger and which ones don't. Knowing where the myths break down lets you buy low when others are running scared — and avoid the traps that look like value but aren't. Adam also shares which injured dynasty assets he's buying and selling right now, and closes with a three-question checklist every manager should run before making any move on an injured player.

💡 Key Takeaways

• Dynasty managers assume age and athleticism predict ACL recovery. The data says otherwise. Past performance is far more predictive than a player's age or athleticism.
• The "injury prone" label is real but haphazardly applied. Adam's Recovery Score metric shows that some players consistently beat their timelines while others (including some big names) consistently miss more time than expected.
• The number of days between surgery and returning to the lineup has a meaningful, positive relationship with post-injury fantasy output. Dynasty managers should be wary of players returning too quickly after surgery.
• Re-injury risk is higher than most managers realize for certain injury types — MCL sprains for RBs, hamstrings for TEs and WRs — and that risk isn't priced into most dynasty markets.
• Not all injuries linger the same way. Lower leg injuries suppress RB production the longest. Core and hip injuries are the most damaging for WRs' performance. Treating all injuries as equal leads to mispriced trades.
• Some injuries are almost never worth buying at any price. Achilles tears, knee dislocations, and patellar tendon ruptures are the three Adam won't touch regardless of discount.
• Before any injured-player move, run Adam's three-question checklist: know your window, know the injury, know the risk.

⏱️ Chapters / Timestamps

00:00 – Injuries: An Unfortunate Reality in Football
04:03 – Adam's PT Background Shapes His Injury Analysis
11:43 – Is the 'Injury Prone' Trope Real?
15:12 – Christian McCaffrey, Injury Patterns & Practice Philosophy
21:38 – ACL and Achilles: Is the ‘Recovery Year’ Trope Real?
27:53 – Other Injury Myths the Data Doesn’t Support
31:19 – Re-injury Rates by Position
40:46 – Lingering Effects of Injuries on Production
47:01 – When Should Missing Practice Actually Concern You?
53:10 – Expectations for Alec Pierce, Jonathan Brooks & Tank Dell
59:37 – Adam's Checklist for Buying an Injured Player

🔗 Links Mentioned

• Footballguys 
• Adam's Articles on Footballguys 
• Follow Adam on Twitter/X 
• Follow Jeff on Twitter/X 
• Coachspeak Index (Greg Brainos) 
• Keep Trade Cut (dynasty valuation site) 

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Transcript

Jeff: Injuries are an unfortunate reality in pro football. And fantasy managers face numerous decisions about their injured players every season, but are there patterns to these injuries, to the recovery times and the impacts on performance once injured players return to action? Well, my Footballguys colleague, and injury expert, Adam Hutchison is joining me today to talk about what the data has to say about it.
Jeff: It's quite a bit of data, more than 2000 injuries he's tracked over the past nine years. Knowing what Adam's data says can help dynasty managers make better decisions when it comes to handling their injured players, and that's next on Dynasty Compass.

[theme music]

Jeff: Welcome to Dynasty Compass. I am your host, Jeff Blaylock, the Other Jeff B from Footballguys. Very thrilled today to be joined by my friend and Footballguys colleague Adam Hutchison, our injury expert, and an all around football expert. And good guy. Adam, thanks so much for joining me today. How are you man?
Adam: Absolutely. Yeah. No, it's good. Uh. We gotta catch up in, uh, Vegas a couple years. So it was nice to meet in, in person and I, we've had some good, uh, back and forth and I'm glad we're able to, uh, you know, hop on the, uh, turn on the cameras, pull out the mics, and you know, do the podcast thing.
Jeff: Yeah, it's, uh, it's good to be able to share your knowledge with the world, uh, which of course you do on Footballguys anyway, but I, I've been, you've been a, I've been a big fan of yours for some time and following you and, uh, making sure that I, uh, pay attention to what you have to say about injuries, uh, because, uh, that has made me a better dynasty manager.
Jeff: So hopefully we will be doing that for the folks watching on YouTube or listening on their favorite podcast platform today. Um, how did you, how did you become the injury guy at Footballguys? Say what, what led you to this point in life where you do injury reporting on fantasy football? I.
Adam: Yeah, I've talked about this before. Um, I wish, you know, I had some like big, inspiring, insightful story. Like I, it mo like most people, you know, I like to play fantasy football. Um. I really got involved in fantasy football, Twitter, um, probably right before COVID, like 2018 through 2019 when some of the discourse on Twitter around fantasy football was a little bit healthier than it, than it is today.
Adam: But, um, just, you know, was able to kind of parlay some of those conversations and some things I was seeing on Twitter and to potential writing opportunities and then other content opportunities. And then with, with Footballguys, you know, got got a little lucky, like, um, I know we can. We're both from the, you know, the same companies we can talk about.
Adam: I, I feel fortunate to be able to work for Footballguys. I, I enjoy every single little day that I'm with, uh, the company. I think Joe does a great thing, uh, a great job of setting things up. He's very mindful and purposeful about the people that he brings on and the positions that he puts people in. So, um, I feel lucky and fortunate that I just kind of networked and met the right people along the way that when, uh, a job opening opened for some injury content over at Footballguys, um, was able to, you know, get an interview and kind of the rest is history.
Jeff: Yeah, I, I'm two very, very proud and thrilled and humbled and honored to be part of the Footballguys family. I can't really think of a, a different group of people I'd ever want to be doing anything with, let alone fantasy football. Uh, but you, you know, you actually get to bring your professional work experience, uh, to bear in, in your fantasy analysts.
Jeff: Uh, folks may know that I'm a crisis management consultant, so, uh, that doesn't really come into play a as much. Um, but you are a, you're, I believe you were a physical therapist in real life,
Adam: Yes, sir. Yep.
Jeff: does that, how does that sort of real world foundation shape the way that you approach your fantasy football work?
Adam: Yeah, I, I think it just has given me kind of an objective lens to, to look at some of these things. Um, I've been guilty of it and I think, um, anyone that kind of works in the medical field and produces some type of like fantasy football content on the injury side, um, we tend to get into the weeds a little bit too much and get a little bit nerdy about it sometimes.
Adam: Um, so, you know, I've been. I've been doing this for, for a while where through self-reflection and, and feedback, I've, I've hopefully kind of fine tuned that process. And I, I, I try to improve on it every year, but it is just given me a foundation, uh, to talk about some of these things and then kind of an objective lens to, to build some, some thoughts and some, uh, hypothesis and some analysis, uh, off of that as well.
Jeff: Yeah, well, I'll, I'll you rest assured that the injury guys are not the only ones who get nerdy about fantasy football. So you're in the weeds, so you're, you're, you're good there. You're in really, really, really good company. Uh, you know, but talking about just gathering information and building this over time and you, you've actually built a, a rather impressive, uh, database of over 2000 injuries going back to 2017.
Jeff: And while I find it kind of disturbing that there are 2000 injuries over nine years that you could put into this database, it shows you what a violent game this is. But what, what got you started on that and, and you know, what, what makes you decide this one is in, and, and that one is not?
Adam: Yeah, I, I thought you were gonna say it's disturbing that I was able to accumulate 2000 injuries. I mean, that tells you, uh, what I'm doing with my free time. Uh, I think I'm, I'm lucky to, to fortunately be married because, uh, I'm definitely a big nerd, you know, sifting through and, and gathering some of those injuries.
Adam: I'm really, it just comes down to like fantasy relevant players. Like could we expand it more? And I, I get questions sometimes about like defensive players or offensive linemen, and I, and I try to, to give some analysis on that, but I really have just narrowed it into quarterback, wide receiver running back in tight end.
Adam: Those are the main players that we think of for fantasy football. And then just trying to again, gather some objective data. Um. To give us an idea of respected, uh, expected recovery timelines. What does fantasy production look like when a player comes back versus pre-injury levels? Um, are there lingering effects of those injuries?
Adam: Um, last year I added some supplements I'm gonna continue to build on this year, just looking for, at like wide receiver. Does target share change for running back? Does snap share change? So just trying to build in some of those things. Again, it's not gonna tell us, Hey, when Amon-Ra St. Brown gets hurt, this is exactly what's gonna happen.
Adam: But it gives us at least a foundation and an idea of, of a range of outcomes, uh, given a certain injury.
Jeff: That makes that 2000 even more remarkable that we're only talking about four positions and there are. Thousands of other injuries that you have not put into the database because they are, they're not the positions that we typically deal with, uh, in fantasy football. So that, that just gives a sense of, of just how, I mean, all of us as fantasy managers know how prevalent injuries are because we have to manage around that every year.
Jeff: But it just sort of sobering that, that that kind of level of damage happens to people, uh, on a weekly basis in this game that, that we all love. But talking about, you know, the lingering effects and whatnot, you, you've developed from this, uh, uh, kind of an analytical way of looking at what a recovery is and how, how likely someone's gonna be able to get back to, to performance level we're expecting.
Jeff: And how quickly, uh, can you tell me a little bit about how, how that works and what that measure tells you about, about a player, and then how you're able to use that in your analysis.
Adam: Yeah. So I mean, and, and this idea kind of really stemmed off of like the injury prone discussion, which. Again, not to go all the way back talking about Twitter, but like if anyone that's played fantasy football a lot or consumes fantasy football content, they probably have stumbled to some point across the kind of whole injury prone narrative.
Adam: So I really just wanted to kind of assign a number, um, to these players and just say, Hey, for, for this player, for player A versus player B, if they both have hamstring injuries, um, does player A, you know, historically get better quicker than than player B? Um, and then what does that score look like? So I've developed this thing called, uh, recovery score.
Adam: It's basically similar to what you would do for like expected fantasy points for a player at a specific play. Um, just breaking it down to, uh, specific injuries. So, you know, for if a wide receiver, um, is expected to miss a certain amount of games for a hamstring strain, um. Are there players that underscore score that are there players maybe take longer time?
Adam: But I mean, just to, to, to give you an example, like if we look at the wide receiver position, like of the players that qualified.
Adam: So, um, again, doing this recovery score, I've. To filter out, you know, some of the randomness. I've only included players that have had three or more injuries and then looking at their recovery timeline. So of all those players, uh, Amon-Ra St. Brown ranked in the 99th percentile among wide receivers. Um, he historically is somebody that really undercuts typical tie mist and has really played through some difficult injuries.
Adam: Uh, in the early part of his career, I think it was last year or two years ago, he had like a, a pretty nasty core injury that typically is very limiting for wide receivers. And, uh, he was able to really undercut that that recovery timeline, obviously last year might uh, affect this. But, you know, coming into the 2025 season, Tyreek Hill is actually somebody that also ranked in the 90th percentile, dealt with a multitude of injuries, but was actually pretty good at recovering coming back.
Adam: Um, Chris Olave was rated pretty low just because of the concussions. The recurrent concussions really affected his score, um, because as he got more and more they were resulted in, uh. They were kind of compounding the, the time missed. Um, Cooper Kupp is somebody that also kind of ranked in the bottom. I think he ranked in the bottom 25th percentile, months wide receivers.
Adam: Um, some ones that, again, we would kind of think of c you know, Christian McCaffrey, James Conner. Those guys typically graded outpoor with recovery scores. Um, they, they typically miss, uh, more time than expected. It's an early part of his career. Bucky Irving, pretty durable for running backs, ranking in the top half.
Adam: Josh Jacobs, um, maybe not the most explosive fantasy player at this point, but in terms of injuries has done really well. Um, coming back and then looking at tight ends again, you know, 2025 data might affect this. George Kittle was like pretty phenomenal. He ranked in a 90th percentile amongst tight ends.
Adam: Um, obviously the Achilles injury is kind of unfortunate. Isaiah Likely, pretty durable. And then for, you know, people would expect this Dalton Kincaid, uh, ranking in the bottom 20% amongst tight ends. Uh, somebody that's, you know, struggled with injury.
Jeff: Yeah, someone who has lots of shares of Kincaid. I'm well aware of that
Adam: I'm right with you.
Jeff: about him. So a few moments ago, you mentioned with a bit of a sneer in your face for those not watching on YouTube, uh, the idea of injury prone in that narrative. And in my mind, I'm thinking about guys like Jonathon Brooks and Ricky Pearsall and MarShawn Lloyd and, and even, uh, fairly, or were mostly unfairly, Jordyn Tyson from the class that's coming in now.
Jeff: Um, do, do past injuries. I mean, is there any truth to, to the injury prone narrative? Do past injuries really? Do you predict future ones? Uh, is it an earned label or is, is it really not that simple?
Adam: Yeah, I mean, there, there's been a lot of discourse and a lot of research in this. Yes. You know, uh, a history of injuries, uh, is the best predictor for future injuries, but it's not a perfect science. Um, especially in football. It's a physical game and there is a randomness component to it. Um, honestly, that discussion is like really what wanted really drove me to develop this recovery score just to get, again, some, some type of objective data that says, Hey, if we take the feelings out of it,
Adam: if we remove the emotion for it, just objectively talking, like, is this player injury prone or not injury prone?
Adam: That's really what. One that started is what started the, the recovery score aspect of it. Um, anytime somebody a asks me this question, I, I tell 'em they're gonna hate the answer. 'cause I, I kind of sit on the fence. I, I, I see both aspects of it. Um, I think there are players that probably have different tissue quality, different toughness that, that factors into time missed versus time not missed.
Adam: Um, am I going to overreact to those things? No. Um, but I think it is something that, that could be involved. So is it a lie? Is it not a lie? Yes and no. Uh, it, it's both. Um, but it's not just like, oh, if they're injury prone, they're always gonna get injured. And honestly, we've seen some recent examples of that with like Christian McCaffrey.
Adam: Like Christian McCaffrey was labeled that as injury prone. And then, you know, especially after, uh, what happened in the 2024 season and in 2025, like, I don't know where he finished, but it was definitely. Top RB, if not the RB1.
Jeff: Yeah. McCaffrey one of those guys that he either is that, you know, top three, top five kind of player or he doesn't play at all. It seems like there, there isn't much middle ground with him because of the way that he, he plays and just also the way that he, he attacks his own health and his own recovery.
Adam: And I I, and not to make this about Christian McCaffrey, but obviously this is somebody that I. I've studied a lot because he typically is a high fantasy football pick. So like we talked about that recovery score timeline, um, he's somebody that typically does miss more time than expected. Um, but I think he is somebody that holds himself out until he is ready.
Adam: Because when we look at like fantasy production, post-injury, where we would see typical declines for things like high ankle sprains, hamstring injuries, um, he always outperforms the average. So I, I always tell people if Christian McCaffrey is active on Sunday, you're getting a he healthy Christian McCaffrey, like he's going to give you Christian McCaffrey type outputs.
Adam: Um, but if he's not a hundred percent I, I think he's somebody that tends to pull himself and, and, and hold himself out, which can be good and bad for fantasy. Obviously it kind of hamstrings your team, but uh, you know that he's not gonna be somebody that's gonna go out there into decoy role and lay, lay a goose egg for you.
Jeff: Yeah, that actually kind of reminded me on, on being at a hundred percent before you put yourself out there, are there any, any teams that kind of have that same sort of mentality that, that their players may sit longer, but when they come back they're closer to full strength, or do you think it's really more of the players that are driving that?
Adam: not so much in that regard. There's some things that I've looked at in terms of like, um, practice reports, um, teams using like the questionable tag versus doubtful, some teams being a little bit more, um. Kinda liberal with that, that questionable tag versus some other teams when they label a a player questionable, um, they're more than likely,
Jeff: Hello Baltimore,
Adam: because it was Lamar Jackson last year was the, the big question mark right? With, with Baltimore saying that he was, he had practiced and was questionable and then actually he really didn't practice and he really wasn't questionable.
Adam: yeah. And there, there have been, for some reason I feel like the Patriots and some of that data might be dating back to, um. The Bill Belichick days. Yeah. Um, where he, he was really not super truthful with, with some of those practice reports. I think that, that have heavily influenced, um, some of the data as well.
Adam: But there, there are definitely teams, um, that, that definitely fudged that a a little bit. And there there are some teams that, um, kind of stay through the course where if they list a player as questionable, like it, it, it can be a true 50/50, um, percent chance that they, that they play.
Jeff: there is a, there is a Discord out there called Coach Speak Index, which I'm, I'm sure you're familiar with. It's one that I enjoy looking at as well, that, uh, you know, that that analyst over there and his name slips my, my brain, but I'll put it in the show notes when, when I look it up here after we're, we're done recording.
Jeff: But, you know, he kind of has a, I don't wanna call it a truth meter, but essentially he says, you know, this coach has a 75%. Uh, rate of, of being accurate when he says so and so is going to be out a number of weeks or talking about a particular injury. And so I think there's definitely noticeable patterns of, at least, at least what, what the coaches say now.
Jeff: Not necessarily what they're reporting on, on official sheets, Belichick and Harbaugh notwithstanding. Um, but it, it does, it does strike me at least that I feel, I feel better about an injury situation when some coaches say it, and I'm less likely to believe it when others, and, and that's been my natural suspiciousness, I guess, or maybe I've just been burned enough over the years that I, uh, I, I learned to trust some and not others.
Adam: Yeah, no, I, I think I, I should probably gear this a little bit more towards coach speak because I do think coaches play into it, but I was able to pull up those numbers. So, Elise, again, this is kind of a wide range 'cause this is dating back to 2017, but when we look at the top four teams when A player's, now again, too, this is, I've only looked at fantasy relevant players, so there's some other things that could skew this.
Adam: Um, but looking at some of the top teams in terms of percent chance to play when listed as questionable on the final injury report, um, team players most likely to play on the Chargers, Giants, Chicago and Tampa Bay rank in the top half, bottom half has actually been Philadelphia has been the worst. Uh, Houston, Buffalo, New Orleans, and Atlanta, Baltimore. I know maybe, uh, it would be interesting to ag again to add the 2025, uh, data in there. Baltimore's kind of middle of the pack. They were hover around that 67% in terms of percent chance to play, um, when listed questionable on the injury report.
Jeff: Yeah, I mean you, and you know, 'cause you've looked at the numbers. Some of us you say it's an emotional game at times at fantasy football. I think just enough of us, uh, were counting on Lamar Jackson to play that weekend, and when he was not after, we were kind of assured he was okay to do so. I think that sticks out more than, than any actual pattern of what, uh, what Harbaugh and Baltimore have done as an organization, what he did when he was there.
Jeff: So I, I may be, uh, I may be, uh, slinging mud at him unnecessarily, but that just was such a PTSD inducing kind of situation. I thought I'd ask you, uh, about it. Um, how much, you know, we, we talk in other narratives about age cliffs and, and where production starts to decline. Do you see anything like that in injury rate?
Jeff: In recovery? Is there a meaningful threshold where, uh, a player's age starts to, uh, make recovery more difficult?
Adam: I think injury factors into it, certainly like, um, somebody like Nick Chubb comes to mind where, you know, back half of his career, some of those injuries start to snowball a little bit. Um, and that really drives down the, the production.
Adam: Um, but I do, I, I certainly do believe that like age factors into it, um, it's probably different for, for different players obviously. Um, you know, some, I, I forget who has, has really, uh, talked about this a lot on, on Twitter, so I do apologize. But like, um, you know, those elite producers, those guys that are in the 99th percentile, um, tend to out perdu the perform those age, age apex curves a lot more just because obviously they're elite, but then, you know, teams are going to be.
Adam: More willing to invest in them continually, um, because they trust that player. Uh, a good example of that is like Derrick Henry, I think for not only the running back position, but just what Derrick Henry does as a running back. He's not somebody that, uh, is, is a big pass catcher or somebody that, um, is really avoiding contact.
Adam: Like he's definitely, you know, run, running between the tackles and, and grinding. He's, uh, somebody that's out outperformed those age curves. Um, but I think for just the general population, the general census in the NFL, like I, I do think that factors into it.
Jeff: you know, one of the other popular, uh, narratives, Adam, is, is the, the whole sort of ACL reconstruction that there's a year of struggling afterward. I think we could probably throw the Achilles tendons into this too, since they've been a little more prevalent in the last few years.
Jeff: Is, is that, does your data actually show that there is this one year struggle? Is, is the conventional wisdom right here or are we kind of relying on the old days when knee surgery meant you were out for a year?
Adam: Yeah, no, I think, um, in terms of recovery, timelines has gotten better in terms of some of the research. We still, even with some of the recent examples with ACL specifically, um, I don't have a lot of hard concrete data on Achilles injuries, but my, my guess would be similar pattern, uh, that first year, efficiency numbers, specifically looking at running backs, yards per game, attempts per game, uh, going into their receiving work, target share yards per, uh, yards per route run.
Adam: All of that sees, uh, a pretty significant decline in year one after, uh, an ACL. That's why. I mean, obviously pass, catching, running backs are, are more valuable. But I, I have said that those running backs coming off of ACL tears, I think they do better if they have some type of receiving work to help buoy, uh, a little bit of the rushing production decline that we're likely going to see for them.
Adam: And then for, you know, wide receivers, it's kind of the same thing in terms of yards per out run, target share, um, yards per reception. There, there is some, at least at the data I've looked at, um, decline in, in, in those metrics.
Jeff: You know, one of the, one of the other sort of narratives, uh, that that's out there. And, and it's really surprising 'cause you, you by the way, for those who do not know, Adam puts out this terrific series of articles before a season. That, that sort of breaks down this research that he's done and, and really sort of sets the table for, for the injuries that are coming in the season.
Jeff: But one of the things you've talked about I is that the sort of the young athlete and the athleticism narrative, you know, that he's young, he's a freak athlete, he'll, he'll bounce right back. That that doesn't really seem to necessarily be the case, particularly with the, with the knee injuries. Um, what, you know, we've talked about older players being a bit of a, of an issue in terms of recovery, but the younger players aren't just given a pass either.
Jeff: So what's the, you know, what's the truth here? Uh, this is in this narrative that, that the freak athlete still has basically the same recovery arc as the not freak athlete.
Adam: So, I mean, just looking at from, from a correlation, pers perspective, and again, some of this stuff, I, I mean a lot of this stuff, um, specifically for ACLs is a small sample because we gotta have a wide receiver that's fantasy relevant. We gotta have some idea of their. Pre-injury, uh, fantasy football production, and then get some, some post fantasy football production.
Adam: So for the wide receivers right now, uh, not including anything that's happened in 2025, again, I'm, I'm updating that stuff. this off season. I've got 31, I've got 30 wide receivers. Um, and just purely looking at like correlation in terms of pre-production to post fantasy football points per game following an ACL, um, it's the stuff that we would, we would typically use for like charting fantasy football success.
Adam: Um, so pre ACL total receptions, um, pre ACL targets per game, pre ACL fantasy points per game, pre ACL yards per game, um, pre, uh, career, best yards per route run. Um, all of that stuff. Was heavily, uh, po f favorably correlates to post-production, um, and fantasy football points, stuff like age, um, did not correlate very well.
Adam: Um, RAS Score for people that, uh, follow math bomb on, on on Twitter, um, relative athletic score did not grade for very well, for, for wide receivers.
Adam: For running backs, it's a little different. Um, RAS Score is not terrible, not poorly correlated, but it, it looks like there is, um, at least a, a marginal, uh, relationship correlation.
Adam: Um, but some of the best metrics were career best target share, um, career best, uh, attempts per game, um, number of days from when they had surgery. So, um, running backs that get a little extra time. Um, depending on where their, their injury is. So from when they have surgery to when they come back, game one, the number of days in between there.
Adam: Um, a high, a longer number of days has a more positive relationship on post fantasy football points per game versus a a, a shorter timeline. Um, things that didn't really grade well for, for running back. Um, again, age was kind of rated toward the bottom. Um, I don't think I talked about the running backs that I've included.
Adam: I think it's a similar sample size though, uh, to those wide receivers. Um, I still have not added Zach Charbonnet, but mi minus him. I've got 28 running backs, um, for that sample. So, again, small sample, but we're, we're, we're just trying to again, find some, some connection, some correlation points to give us an idea of, hey, if this running back has an ACL tear and I can put in these metrics.
Adam: I don't even know if you can really call it modeling, but I can get an idea of what post fantasy football production will look like, uh, using some of those positive correlation values.
Jeff: Yeah, it's one of the things I think we as fantasy analysts, no matter what our bent is, have to get, uh, comfortable with is small sample sizes because there's only a 17 game season and there's not a whole lot to work. With, uh, data wise, uh, in, in terms of volume. So you have to be able to make some decisions and, and draw some conclusions on some numbers that would, would probably, uh, make a clinical trial for a drug manufacturer cringe.
Jeff: But that, that's where we, uh, that's where we are. Uh, as, as SE ls, fortunately, the word fantasy is in there, so, so we're good. Uh, any other things, any other conventional wisdom around injuries out there that's just either flat, wrong, or is at least not really backed up by the data that you've amassed in the last nine years?
Adam: Yeah. Um, I mean. A couple things like, you know, just penciling in like a nine month timeline for an ACL. Um, I think it, it, and the other thing that people do is they just, they look at when the injury happened to when, you know, the next season starts. Um, and that's where I've gone back and looked at specifically surgery to play timelines.
Adam: 'cause that's really when the rehab starts. Like you can do some prehab before you have it, but finding out those, those surgery dates, Um, Zach Charbonnet is kind of one of those players where. You know, I could Charbonnet play in in 2026. I think it's possible, but I'm really skeptical about what his 2026 fantasy production's gonna look like.
Adam: And even if he plays at all this season, just based on how late his injury was. And unfortunately, like I, I could, I could see him missing most, if not all, of the, the 2026 season. Um, I don't know how off topic we wanna get here, but obviously it's a hot button topic on Twitter right now, dealing with like, the whole, like knee valgus things.
Adam: I mean, for the people watching, like that kind of, it's something that has bothered me for a while. That's why I got the hashtag valgus behind me. It's just kind of a running joke, uh, with some people that I talk with just about, like, it started with Jerry Jeudy, but like some of the mechanics for, for some of these athletes, if they're doing this with their knees or if they're flatfooted, um, they're gonna be at a higher injury risk.
Adam: I, I think it's really, really hard to. Look at somebody's still frame photo or even a five second clip slowed down and say that player's mechanics are bad versus somebody else. And then using that to predict injury. Um, people were pretty skeptical. This is dating back probably like, I don't even know when Jeudy came out.
Adam: 20 19, 20 20. But like, knock on wood, the guy has not torn his ACL. His, his knee valgus is obviously so contagious that it resulted in Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Albert Okwuegunam and Javonte Williams all tearing their ACL. But somehow Jerry Judy avoided it despite his knee valgus. Um, um, those are some things that I, I kind of steer away from.
Adam: Um, I I, I look at a lot of things not as black and white. Like there's, there's probably a little bit of gray, um, player specific. Fantasy output. Um, this gets into a little bit of game theory, but I mean, it's, it's all a risk versus reward. Like, um, I'm, I was somebody that was willing to bet on Christian McCaffrey and it's burned me sometimes, but it's also helped me a lot because he is, he's won me some fantasy football championships when he is been able to stay healthy.
Jeff: I, yeah, I'm with you. I think a lot of folks are there. Uh, you know, with some years he has, uh, driven me straight into, uh, the lottery for the first draft pick and other years he's won championships. And that's just sort of the, that's the
Adam: It's a game.
Jeff: with somebody. I mean, when he is, when he is on, he is really, really on.
Jeff: And, and I think that's what's worth, it's worth that effort. But that re-injury risk is always sort of there. It's sort of funny that we don't think necessarily about the injury risk before they get hurt the first time, but then afterward, um, this risk keeps coming up. And that's something I think you've really, you've looked at a lot, uh, I mean, there.
Jeff: Particular injury types or that are, that have particularly high re-injury rates that, you know, dynasty managers really need to be paying attention to, perhaps, maybe even underestimate, uh, this likelihood and, and maybe, uh, don't, don't appreciate the risk of the player that they may have as a result.
Adam: Yeah, and I break this down by position, but just looking at, um. You know, tight end again, quarterback tight, end wide receiver, running back. Um, some, some injuries that have a higher re-injury rate compared to other injuries. Hamstrings tend to be ones that really linger for, for all skilled position players, specifically tight ends, uh, and wide receivers, um, have a higher re-injury rate for whatever reason when they suffer those.
Adam: Um, oddly enough, high ankle sprains and quarterbacks. Um, my guess on that is that if a quarterback has a high ankle sprain, they're typically the mobile type quarterback that's probably going to be testing the limits of that a little bit. Um, I haven't really dug into that too much, but those are just some of the raw numbers that I've gotten when looking at re-injury rate by position.
Adam: Um, AC joint sprains for wide receivers, which makes sense. Um, those guys that are going up for the 50/50 balls and kind of laying out, um. sustain that injury, it's probably somebody that, um, does a lot. My kind of, Mike Williams is somebody that I think of with, with, with that example that I think maybe suffer with that a couple years ago.
Adam: And then for running backs, um, just non-specific hip injuries, uh, rib injuries or rib fractures, which would make sense given their position. And MCL sprains had the highest re-injury risk among, uh, running backs
Jeff: MCL sprains. That's that's interesting.
Adam: Yeah, so an MCL sprain is tough because unless if it's not a full tear that doesn't need surgery, it's a ligament that's probably been stretched and is gonna be a little bit more, uh, lax at least for a short period of time in season. Um, so a lot of those times those guys are gonna wear some type of external bracing to help with it.
Adam: But MCL spraining specifically with cutting and moving laterally, um, it's gonna test that ligament. So. You know, somebody, a running back specifically has an MCL sprain misses three weeks and comes back. Um, I think they're just gonna be at a higher injury risk than, you know, a different type of injury. At least that's what the data points do.
Jeff: You know, is there, is there a meaningful difference between the first time a player injures something and, and then the second time either the same site or an adjacent structure in the body? Uh, and, and if that's the case, does that, should that change the calculus that dynasty managers have when one of their players or a player they're interested in has gotten hurt for a second time, uh, in a particular part of the body?
Adam: I mean, I think it's a good question. I don't have anything specifically that looks at that. I, I would say inherently yes, just in terms of. Uh, my background in dealing with some sports medicine as a, as a physical therapist. And then, um, just kind of like what we were talking about a little bit earlier in the show where, you know, previous injuries back predictor for a future injur injury.
Adam: The second part of that question, I think is the interesting part because again, I think that gets into a little bit of game theory and dealing with fantasy football and dealing with your league mates. Whether it's true or not might not really even matter because in in your league mate's mind, uh, if you're trying to move that player, they're gonna look at it as, as damaged good.
Adam: So he's gonna lose value in your fantasy football with league, whether it's true or not. Um, there's just gonna be players that your league mates are gonna shy away from. Um, again, we're, we're using 'em as an example. We could probably think of somebody else, but you know, Christian McCaffrey, his, if you look at Keep Trade Cut, they sometimes have those.
Jeff: Mm-hmm.
Adam: Curves, uh, that show where players value is from one year to another and his goes up and down, up and down based on what type of season he, he just finished having. Um, there's gonna be people that are gonna try to buy low and there's gonna be people that are gonna shy away from him just 'cause they think he might be injury prone.
Adam: So it's an interesting, it's an interesting question. Um, I mean, not to get too off topic, but for some injuries it's for, and even for some player situations, it's just something. Where maybe I think they can do well, but I'll stay away from them just because I don't want to have them on my team. Um, an example of that is like thinking about Jameson Williams when he came out, his rookie season coming off an ACL tear.
Adam: Like I just thought that was gonna be a hard injury for a rookie wide receiver to bust in year one. Um, you know, going into rookie drafts, he was probably a middle first round pick somewhere between the 1.06 to kinda 1.09 region. Um, and he was just somebody coming into the season. I, uh, his rookie year, I did not draft a lot of, I've acquired a couple of Jameson Williams shares throughout the years, um, now that he's a couple years removed from that specific injury.
Adam: But I just thought that was somebody that was not gonna retain value. You were better off pivoting to a Garrett Wilson or Chris Olave who I felt more confident that was going to, I, I felt like they were gonna be, I was more confident that they were gonna be healthy year one, and that was gonna help improve their value, whether they stood on my team and gave them me more fantasy football points, or somebody that I could move for a different asset.
Jeff: Yeah. I, I, I like to think of the injured players kind of as this concept of broken toys, that these are players that, that would normally be in a lineup, but can't be because they're hurt. And I find that they can actually be really good value buys, particularly for, uh, teams that aren't contending. If, if they're not trying to make the playoffs, they have the ability, as you say, if a, a manager who has.
Jeff: You know, Malik Nabers may not be the best, uh, example because he's still fairly young and, and, and will likely still be a superstar. Uh, but if you are a contending team and you've got Malik Nabers sitting on your bench and someone offers you a starting caliber wide receiver for him, that, that becomes an interesting question for you as a manager.
Jeff: So I do find that, you know, acquiring damaged goods, these broken toys can actually be a really good strategy. Are there certain, not necessarily players, but are there certain types of injuries that, you know, you would say, no, I really, I really don't think I want to acquire, uh, this particular situation, uh, even at a pretty significant discount.
Adam: Yeah. Um, the season ending ones, the season ending injuries are, I, I think the trickiest, um, you know, ACL tears. I'm, I'm depending on the player age and, and position and where they're at in their career arc. I'm not so worried about, um, Achilles would be tough. Um. The injury kind of Tank Dell had two years ago with like, it's a complete knee dislocation.
Adam: Um, those are really tough patellar tendon ruptures. So that's a knee injury. A again, those are really tough. Lisfranc. Um, there's some conflicting data. I think it would depend on no player age. Um, Julio Jones is somebody that I think of with that. He's having some chronic foot, foot issues, but it was in the earlier part of his career, um, and he was able to break through a little bit.
Adam: So it's a little bit of a nuanced, uh, concept, but I don't think there is any injury that I'd be avoiding completely. Um, I think there's always a, a right price in a buy window, specifically if we're looking at, at, uh, dynasty. But if you had me rank like three, like Achilles, knee dislocation, patellar tendon rupture, those would be things that I'd be really scared about buying a, a player at, uh, whatever that price would be.
Jeff: Yeah. And of course, you know, we have a, a potentially aging but superstar tied in to George Kittle who's in that first bucket that you've got there with the Achilles tear. And I'm not mistaken, Cam Skattebo is in the second one right? With the, uh, the, uh, need dislocation. Is that what happened to him? Or, I got him confused with somebody else.
Adam: Yeah. So, um, George Kittle ruptured his Achilles. Um, I think Cam Skattebo and I, this is, this is always a bad look when the injury guy, I, I'm telling you guys, when I, uh, I have just started my process, like I try to gather this stuff, uh, in season, but within season, like I'm podcasting and then I'm writing injury articles.
Adam: When the season's over, I turn my brain off for a little bit. So I'm literally in data collection mode. Um, between. March, April, may, and June. I'm just collecting all the previous injuries and factoring into some of this stuff. Cam Skattebo had an ankle dislocation.
Jeff: Ankle dislocation. Okay. Yep, that's
Adam: Ankle dislocation, which is, which is a, is is a big issue.
Adam: Um, Chris Godwin had a similar, uh, injury, but I, I feel a little bit more confident about Cam Skattebo's 2026 outlook and his long-term dynasty outlook, um, versus a, a, a need dislocation. Just the complications that come with that.
Jeff: Got it. Yeah. Thank you. Thank you. Yeah, I was very confident in that question. I star, wait a minute. I don't think that's actually right. So turns out I
Adam: You're good, man.
Jeff: This is why we ask these
Adam: kinds of questions.
Jeff: Well, yeah, at least for you, I mean, you, you have said several times, you're still inputting the data from last season, so it's a little unfair to ask about something that happened, uh, only a few months ago when, when you are, are still, uh, still adding to that database. Uh, but that data also tracks lingering effects.
Jeff: Like, you know, this is when a player comes back, but their production is still suppressed. Uh, and so, you know, we often cheer, I know I personally try not to put a player back into a lineup the week that they've come back from, from an injury for that very reason. Um, but I do that sort of, uh, uh, with a howitzer approach.
Jeff: I do that with everybody. Are there injury types, uh, where we really should be, um, maybe holding them out of our lineups for a couple of weeks till we see how they're performing, or they're, or should we just go ahead and put them in or, or keep them out as I've been doing, is there any kind of pattern to that that dynasty managers should be looking at in terms of making that decision?
Jeff: Okay, so and so's coming back from this injury's been out four weeks. Do I start this week or do I hold him out?
Adam: Yeah, and, and just to give some people like a little bit of a peek behind the curtains. So what I've, what I've done for these specific injuries is I've said, uh. Okay. Um, all the NFL wide receivers that have had hamstring injuries, um, what's their pre fantasy football production versus post fantasy football production, their first game back, and then over a three game sample size, uh, to see, to measure lingering effects.
Adam: I've taken the averages in terms of percent decline, and then based on those percent declines, I put them in specific tiers, with one being minimal change. They usually, on average kind of bounce right back, and five being, hey, across the board on average, these players really see significant declines that that linger.
Adam: high ankle sprains and calf strains among NFL running backs typically have the most lingering effects in terms of fantasy football decline for wide receivers, any type of core abdominal injury or a hip injury. Um, and then it wasn't as significant as like calf strains or high ankle sprains, but core injuries as well can be difficult for NFL running backs.
Adam: Um, and that kind of talks about, again, going to earlier part of the show where, um, it wasn't the only thing that factored into it, but I was impressed with. And Amon-Ra St. Brown has scored well, um, because he, he had a core injury and um, was really able to undershoot that re recovery like timeline. But then in terms of fantasy football production, I mean.
Adam: Really saw kind of a minimal decline, um, and was able to, to bounce back rather quickly.
Jeff: We've talked a little bit about practice reports and the signals that you get from that. And you, you've done a lot of research into that.
Jeff: You know, what, what is the most useful. Thing that dynasty managers should be paying, or fantasy football managers generally should be paying attention to in terms of practice reports, is it what's actually said? Is it what's happening on the field? Is, is it something else? And what, where's the truth? In, in, in, where's the, the usable information in practice reports.
Adam: Um, honestly, been adding to this more and more, but what I have found is the final day in a practice, whether that be the Friday or the Saturday, um, what type of participation that player had, whether it be limited, full or not practicing at all is typically the most predictive of whether or not that player is going to play.
Adam: Um, it factors in a little bit when we were talking about with those specific teams too, of, you know, listening to player is questionable on the final injury report. Um, and then obviously a little bit of the, the player's hist history will factor into that, but. What I, what I would say is it's usually that final practice report.
Adam: So when a player starts off the week limited or not practicing, um, I'm not typically the guy on Twitter like swinging the red flag and freaking out. Um, especially if it's a veteran player. You know, we, we were seeing a lot more of that load management and vet veteran arrest days, um, given the injury, um, I, I probably wouldn't panic that much.
Adam: It, it, it's usually that final practice report, um, that I'm looking at.
Jeff: Yeah. And certainly we don't wanna see the participation go down as the week goes across. And, and I don't know, maybe it's just because I was paying more attention to it this year, or maybe more of my players were caught in this bucket, but it seemed like we had a significant number of Saturday injuries turn up than we've had in past years.
Jeff: And I was wondering if that there was any truth to that. Uh, or is that, are we seeing actual injury impacts or are we seeing gamesmanship by coaches or, or what, what are we making out of a trend of these last day injuries that seem to kind of pop up?
Adam: Yeah. Um, it's never good when that happens. I mean, if that, if that typically happens, that, that, that not always but often points to a new injury. Um, a late week injury. I don't remember a whole lot, uh, this season. Um, but I do a, an article that comes out every Saturday for, for a Footballguys subscribers.
Adam: And if I did pick up on a late injury, I'm sure I wrote about how if somebody popped up on the injury report on Thursday or Friday after not coming into the week limited at all, um, that that was a little bit concerning for me, that they were gonna play that the, that, uh, following Sunday.
Jeff: Yep. Well, of course during the season, you know, everything is so compressed and, and there is a strong desire of players to be playing and a strong need for the teams and their teammates to have 'em out there. But when we're in, you know, OTAs and we're in training camp during the off season. That of course the impetus for that's a lot lower.
Jeff: We don't, we don't have to have these guys out on the field. When, when should dynasty managers be watching for and caring about persistent absences or limited participation in the off season programs and during training camp? Is there some signal that says this, this might really be a problem when the regular season comes around in a few weeks or months, depending on where we are on the calendar.
Adam: Um, it would have to be an ex an extended, a, a significant extended absence. Um, and what I mean by that is, again, charting injuries.
Adam: preseason injuries, um, and then average time missed for, for those preseason injuries.
Adam: And it is on average, longer than something that we would see in in season, in season. I mean, a lot of, not all, but a lot of these contracts are incentive based. Um, these guys wanna play like with the rehab and, and the recovery that, uh, that's going on during in season, it's really about putting a bandaid on it and just trying to get to the end of the season.
Adam: Um, versus the off season where for the most part, these guys aren't making a lot of their money. Um, the teams will be a little bit more cautious and delicate with some of those injuries.
Adam: But like looking at, uh, Cooper Kupp 2023 had a hamstring injury, um, that started in the preseason. Um, and it actually missed eight weeks, which was a significant amount of time for, for hamstring to usually we're somewhere between that three to four week mark, um, and dating the 2023.
Adam: So, um, he did miss the first four weeks of the season. Um, so that tells you that, you know, that was the kind of a four week injury, preseason and maybe tweaked it. Um, but again, if a guy's sitting out, obviously the closer that we get to the season, I might get a little bit worried. Um, using a more recent example, like Darnell Mooney, um, missed a good chunk and it was getting closer and closer to the season and Atlanta was not really telling us what type of shoulder injury that Darnell Mooney had.
Adam: Um, and I had not seen the injury. I had no inside information, but based on the timeline and a kind of extended timeline, I was like, you know, I think Darnell Mooney has an AC joint sprain. And I think that actually did come to fruition where I was like, maybe I'm getting a little bit concerned now because if he's missing this amount of time for an AC joint sprain, it might be one of the more significant AC joint sprains.
Adam: So circling back to your question, I don't panic too much about it, um, because I think teams are gonna be a little bit more cautious in the preseason and in the off season holding guys out. Um, you know, if it's a new injury that's happening kind of during training camp and we're two to three weeks out from the season, I might get a little bit worry.
Adam: And this is more of a redraft mindset where maybe if that player was in a similar tier, I move him toward the back end of that tier. Um, but it's not somebody like, oh, you gotta take Jahmyr Gibbs off your draft board. He is got a hamstring strain to start the season. He is gonna be a bust, like if he's missing four to four to five weeks.
Adam: Honestly good. Like he's not getting me any fantasy points in preseason, so sit out, rest up and let's get ready for the, for the season.
Jeff: Yeah, and you know, there's also a, you know, uh, it's difficult to sort of separate out what is an injury related performance issue and what is a, you didn't really get to do training camp and so this offense that just got installed around you, you haven't really practiced that. And you know, the guy I'm thinking of right now for that is Alec Pierce from Indianapolis who.
Jeff: The last report that I saw coming out of there, the suggestion was he was gonna miss basically the entire off season training program. And he is now the alpha in that offense. There there's new elements to that offense. And so even if he is at full strength in week one, there's still sort of a performance issue because is he really ready to play at that point?
Jeff: Even if he's really healthy is he got the command of the offense that he needs, uh, in order to play. And I know there's no way that you could possibly separate that out, but that to me is just something that lingers with me too. That even if they're missing time, yeah, they're not scoring points for you 'cause it's the preseason, but that, that, that practice time is, is a bit important, at least maybe for the younger players in particular.
Jeff: And, and maybe I'm thinking in terms of rookies who may miss chunks of their off season program, that that does seem to have a really dampening effect on their season one. I think's something you mentioned a little bit earlier also and that your numbers bear that out as well.
Adam: Yeah. And the, the Alec Pierce one is a little bit interesting 'cause this is like, this is like new information at this point. Um, this has to
Jeff: I was surprised. Yeah.
Adam: I, I, I'm surprised by it as well. Um, he's not somebody that, like I, I've said before, I'm not taking off my draft board completely, but like, uh, because I'm a nerd, like I'm in some startups right now and when I've gotten to like the Alec Pierce range, um.
Adam: I pivoted off of him just because I, I, I think they're similar to what you're talking about. Like, is there gonna be a ramp up period where the other thing that factors into it, and again, that we, this has kind of gone off topic with the, just making it about Alec Pierce, but like, I think Alec Pierce has looked great in spurts.
Adam: Honestly, the contract that he got from Indianapolis was pretty surprising. Like, I don't know, I, I hate to say it, that he hasn't really done much to like, earn the contract that they gave him. That was a big, uh, leap of faith by Indianapolis, I think, to give him that amount of money. Um, and kind of like you said, make him the alpha of that, that offense and let Michael Pittman go.
Adam: Um, in terms of production, I, I think it's been definitely flip flopped. Obviously age is gonna factor into that a little bit, but when you factor that into, like, I haven't really seen it from Alec Pierce. Um, it was gonna be kind of a big leap of faith, drafted him, and then now we got this new injury. I'm just kinda like, eh.
Adam: I could go to somebody else range and, and, and feel a little bit more comfortable with that pick.
Jeff: yeah. And you know, certainly that's a, I think a bigger deal for redraft, uh, than it is going to be for dynasty because in dynasty. We are talking about multiple timelines, so when we're thinking about someone like Alec Pierce, and it's okay that we went off topic there. I'm the one who brought it up in the first place.
Jeff: If we're thinking about him, you know, what would you, as a dynasty manager, I mean, what's the. What would be kind of an appropriate injury discount for him if you were going out to go get him? You're thinking this may not be the year that he is gonna deliver. Even if we assume he can deliver on what that contract says he is gonna deliver on, on that role he is going to have with Indianapolis.
Jeff: Assume he is gonna hit that at some point. What's the injury discount for getting him now for you, uh, as a dynasty manager,
Adam: Yeah, I mean, I can name some players that kind of went around him or after him, and. You tell me if you, if you think this is crazy. Now again, this is, we're gonna talk about this and there's gonna be people who are like, I would, I would never do that. That player's so old. I don't want him on my dynasty team.
Adam: Depends on how you're constructing your team. If you're really going for it, win-now. Um, like I'd be okay taking DJ Moore over Alec Pear. He, at least in this draft, again, this is anecdotal, he went behind Alec Pierce, like just factoring in the injury and not seeing it. I think I'd rather have DJ Moore.
Adam: He's kind of in a, a good spot this year, uh, in Buffalo. Um, people are probably gonna roll their eyes with this 'cause this guy's definitely not been the epitome of health. Um, but like Christian Watson, I, I, I'll be honest with you, like looking at the, the wide receiver ACL data, um, I was very skeptical, um, that Christian Watson was gonna really put up any meaningful points in 2025 when he came back from his ACL tear.
Adam: And he far exceeded my expectations to where like. I think I'm back in on Christian Watson. Um, so he's, he's somebody that I, I'm okay. Pivoting towards, um, you know, these guy, th this guy's a wide receiver too, uh, in his offense. I don't have their ages in front of me, but my guess is they're, they're a similar range.
Adam: I think I'd rather have Jordan Addison, um, just what with the information that we have right now, and then I could be talked into like DK Metcalf versus Alec Pierce. I mean, DK Metcalf had a pretty good, uh, 2025 season. Obviously there's a lot of uncertainty in what that Pittsburgh offense is gonna look like, and DK Metcalf is considerably older than, than Alec Pierce.
Adam: But like, I'd, I'd be like, if, if I had Alec Pierce. And I was kind of, or if I was win-now, um, he se certainly been the, the sexier name. Like could I send him to the DK Metcalf manager and get like a 2027 third as like maybe a throw in, like send DK Metcalf, uh, send Alec Pierce, get DK Metcalf in a third back.
Jeff: Yeah, I think to me, the only concern is I don't know who's gonna throw the ball at DK Metcalf today. So that might not be a trade I'd make right this moment, but I, it might be one I might make in a month or even two weeks from now when we find out a little bit more about what, where Pittsburgh is. And incidentally for folks, this is being recorded a couple days before the NFL draft, so we may already have this answer by the time that you are watching or listening to this.
Jeff: And you may say, yeah, I would make this trade, or, no, you guys are nuts. And, and we'll, we'll find out when we get there. But is there a point, man, when you are just like, I'm out, I, I there's just, there's no, because of injury situation or a pattern of it, you're just like, I, I, there's, there's really not really a price point that I would go get this guy.
Adam: Um, no, I mean if pe if someone's giving somebody away, like it, it all comes down to risk versus reward. Um, two dynasty as assets right now that I don't think you can really Well one of them, like Jonathon Brooks, I'm kind of out on Jonathon Brooks. I, I, I get it. Um, there's, even with Rico Dowdle leaving, um, there's still a lot of running backs left in Carolina that I, I think he's gonna have an uphill battle, um, coming off two consecutive ACL tears.
Adam: Um, he's somebody that, I mean, if you look at Keep Trade Cut he's been involved in some trades. Like there is some movement on Jonathon Brooks. Like someone wanted to give me a, even a mid 2026 second and I can get out on Jonathon Brooks like. I'm, I'd do that in a heartbeat. I, and I'm willing to eat crow on that, but I, I, I'll lose a little bit of the value based on the rookie pick that I used on Jonathon Brooks and get a 2026 second.
Adam: Um, everyone hates this 2026 class anyways, so you, you could probably get that done. Um, we talked about him a little bit, but like Tank Dell I think is kind of in a tricky spot because I don't think you can get much for Tank Dell. Like, I think you just gotta kind of recoup the value. I'm certainly not going out and acquiring a lot of Tank Dell.
Adam: Um, 'cause I think people that have 'em probably have a similar mindset to me of like, this is just damage goes at this point. Like what I'm gonna get for 'em. I might as well just sit and see if there's kind of a miracle. So those are two that are jumping out to me off the top of my head. Um, I don't know if you have any strong thoughts about like Jonathon Brooks.
Adam: I know again, he is one of the, the sexier names of this off season.
Jeff: Yeah, I, I like Brooks better than I would like Dell in part because I, I, I think I still like Brooks coming outta college. Not that I didn't like Tank Dell coming outta college, but I really did like Brooks a lot. Had him ranked fairly highly on my board at that time. Uh, but it's, you know, it's the cost of acquisition.
Jeff: It's what would his role be on my team if I got him, if he's my RB2, that's a, that's a no, that's a real problem. But if he's my RB5 and he can come in and if he works out, he can be a, a starter, at least a spot star, that's great. And if not, then I've got a place to park him on my bench until such time as.
Jeff: Uh, I don't have him anymore. Dell, I think's a lot trickier just because of the nature of that injury. I mean, I wa we all saw that happen in real time and nevermind the malpractice of the coaching staff, of putting him in that situation in the first place. But that just seemed like, uh, I don't know what his role's gonna be really when he comes back as the NF L's now evolving into these multi tied and sets the sorts of things that Tank Dell used to do, may not be what you're asked to do anymore, uh, when he comes back around.
Jeff: So, I'm with you there. Uh, I'm really kind of out on him as well. Well, Adam, we've covered a, a lot of ground here to today. If, if we could take a step back and just, you know, just if you had some, like a, a short checklist or some questions that you should be asking before you make a move on an injured player, you know, what, what should the thought process be for dynasty managers, whether it's Jonathon Brooks or Alec Pierce or George Kittle, or someone who isn't even hurt yet.
Jeff: Be Zach Charbonnet is what are the questions they should be asking be themselves before they make a move on those players.
Adam: Um, I think it's, nothing's super profound and it, it would be really for, for any question or any decision that you're making for your dynasty team is first off, like, know your window. Are you win-now or are you probably bottom half of the league, um, where maybe you're looking to acquire more as assets or even get an, an injury discount?
Adam: So I think knowing your window's big, um, in regards to injuries. I think knowing the injury, you know, is it one of those big ones that we were talking about? Is it a patella dislocation, need to dislocation Lisfranc injury, Achilles tendon rupture, so know the injury and then, you know, no, the risk also associated with that.
Adam: Um, a buddy of mine, um, that has, he actually broke off this year and started his own company, um, on the clock. Scott Belanger, Jack Falcone on, on on Twitter. He always says like, you know, be ready to be wrong. I think that's a great way to kind of frame the dynasty aspect is, you know, we're, we're all making educated guesses and there's risk associated with it.
Adam: Just be ready to be wrong. You're probably gonna be wrong more often than not. Um, but just knowing that. So I, I would say my, my to uh, to wrap it up there is know your window. Know the injury. No, the risk.
Jeff: Well, thanks so much for joining me here today and talking about, uh, injuries is always great, hanging with you and chatting with you. Uh, just remind everybody one more time where they can find you.
Adam: Absolutely. Uh, again, appreciate you having me. This is, this is fun doing this. I'm exclusively over at Footballguys. Um, in season you can find, uh, all my injury in, uh, content. Uh, Monday I do a kind of synopsis of all the injuries that happened the previous Sunday and then on Saturday. Um, I, I, I give projections in terms of likelihood to play for players that are on the injury report coming into that week.
Adam: Um, and I will more often not be on, uh, Footballguys' YouTube channel on Sunday answering start sit questions with, uh, with Jeff Bell and Joey Wright. Um, in regards to. Um, player injuries. Um, if you wanna fire, follow my content kind of on the off season and in season. I'm also occasionally on Twitter. Um, my handle is @TheRealAdam_H You can ask me questions.
Adam: If I'm in a good mood, I'll answer 'em. And then, uh, yeah, that's, that's where I'm at.
Jeff: You only have to answer them on, on Sunday mornings. You can answer them voluntarily the rest of the time. Right. Well, and thank you also, uh, those of you watching on YouTube or listening on Apple or Spotify or your favorite podcast platform, I really do appreciate that. Uh, if you're on YouTube, please give us a like, or subscribe, uh, drop in a comment. I, I respond to all of those and those will really help the show grow on that platform.
Jeff: Over on Apple, please leave a, uh, a five star rating and a review that will also help this show grow quite a bit. And, uh, and so thank you all for that. We, we are not here, uh, if you are not here watching, listening and learning, hopefully from some experts like, uh, like Adam here about how to better manage your dynasty teams and go out and win your leagues.
Jeff: Uh, we will be back next week with another episode, and so we will see you then on Dynasty Compass.
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