Buy, Sell, or Hold? Navigating the Dynasty Trade Market with Theo Gremminger

Rookie drafts aren't the only way to improve your dynasty roster this offseason. Theo Gremminger from Fantasy Points joins Jeff to survey the dynasty trade landscape right now: who to target, what to pay, who to move, and which players are worth holding a little longer. Knowing where the value gaps are lets you trade with conviction and avoid the traps the market hasn't priced in, yet. Theo covers rookie landing spot winners and losers, veteran buy targets for contenders, the rebuild playbook, players he'd be selling today, and why the biggest mistake managers make in May has nothing to do with individual players.

💡 Key Takeaways

• Carnell Tate's landing spot is better than the market appreciates — Brian Daboll's track record with first-season receivers is a real edge.
• David Montgomery and Terry McLaurin are win-now targets available at an age discount that won't last.
• Year-two players are being overpriced; the Garrett Wilson and Ladd McConkey cautionary tales apply to some big names right now.
• Bucky Irving is a sell: injuries, the Kenneth Gainwell signing, and off-field concerns combine for a souring outlook.
• For rebuilders, 2027 seconds may be more valuable than many managers realize given the projected class and easier to obtain than first-rounders.
• Tight end upside at a deep discount is offered by Eli Raridon, Oscar Delp, Max Klare and Terrance Ferguson.
• Don't feel pressure to fill out your roster in May. You're not setting a lineup until September Acquire value and make the right moves in July and August.

⏱️ Chapters

00:00 – Introduction
00:49 – Rookie landing spot winners: Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson, Jadarian Price, Kenyon Sadiq
04:33 – Rookie landing spot losers: Omar Cooper, Day 2 & 3 running backs
06:59 – The buy side: David Montgomery, Terry McLaurin, Christian Watson, Zay Flowers
12:00 – What to pay: going rates and trade philosophy
15:05 – The rebuild side: handcuffs, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck, 2027 picks
19:15 – The sell side: Bucky Irving, George Kittle, and the "no untouchables" rule
21:33 – Contenders: tiering up, two-for-ones, and year-two traps
30:43 – Depth targets: Jordan Addison, Parker Washington, rookie stashes
33:34 – The tight end evolution: Rams TE room, Eli Raridon, Oscar Delp
41:09 – The hold side: A.J. Brown, Jayden Reed, Chris Godwin, Jonathan Brooks
46:00 – Biggest mistake dynasty managers make this time of year

🔗 Links Mentioned

• Fantasy Points 
• Fantasy Points Fantasy Football YouTube 
• Fantasy Points Dynasty YouTube 
• Follow Theo on Twitter/X 
• Jeff's Dynasty Rankings 
• Follow Jeff on Twitter/X 
• Footballguys 

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Transcript

All eyes in the dynasty community are on rookie drafts right now, but rookie drafts are only one way you can improve your team. Trading is another, whether you're a contender vying for the championship this year or a rebuilder that's looking ahead a little bit. Theo Gremminger from Fantasy Points stops by today to talk about some of the players that contenders and rebuilders should be looking to acquire in trades, what to pay for those players, which players to be trying to move, and which ones you just might wanna hold onto for a little bit longer. And that's next on Dynasty Compass.

Welcome to Dynasty Compass. I am your host, Jeff Blaylock, the other Jeff B from Footballguys. I'm excited to be joined today by Theo Gremminger, The OG. I think you've got probably the best social media handle in the business, Theo. Thanks so much for joining me. I know you have been really busy here since the draft. Appreciate you being here. How are you?

No, I'm happy to chop it up today. Uh, yeah, this is, this is a busy time of year. It's really, really fun though. It's like peak dynasty season. Uh, so we're out there, we're grinding. Um, I had a ton of rookie drafts are kind of in the books at this point. Um, but I'm in a s- couple of startups at this point, and it's, um, and it's best ball season too. So we're, we're, we're grinding a lot of best ball content as well. So it's just constant stuff. But yeah, happy to chop it up. First time chopping up with you. Uh, big shout out to a bunch of your Footballguys, uh, you know, co-workers. A lot of them have podcast with me over the years and, uh, looking forward to doing this one today.

Awesome. Well, let's just jump into it. You mentioned the draft. I think that is where a lot of dynasty leagues are right now, and for some dynasty managers, this is their first foray back into fantasy football since the end of the year. Uh, so we'll get into the veteran winners and losers as we go through the landscape discussion, but who do you-- who in the, among the rookies were you thought were particularly, uh, winners or losers in terms of their landing spots?

I mean, no question Carnell Tate, where he goes at fourth overall, and there's not enough discussion about how he lands with sort of a kingmaker in Brian Daboll, where there's a lot of like recent kind of Brian Daboll hatred. I think a lot of it stems from his lack of success as a head coach in New York. But if you look at what he's been able to do offensively, multiple times we've seen wide receivers on their first season, uh, with his new team-- with their new team, with Daboll running the show offensively, come in and absolutely smash. We saw, saw it with how he integrated Stefon Diggs that first season in Buffalo, where Diggs was coming off of sort of a low-end wide receiver two production, high-end wide receiver three production year in Minnesota, where he ceded a lot of fantasy production to Adam Thielen. Comes over to Buffalo and absolutely dominates with Josh Allen, challenges for WR1 overall. Then we see Malik Nabers two seasons ago have one of the best and highest usage rookie seasons we've ever seen. Uh, I mean, like unbelievable target share, unbelievable first read rate, sort of broke Fantasy Points data for what you were capable of. And now Carnell Tate steps into that situation where he's gonna be the lead dog, not only in the passing game, but as the offensive focal point. So I think he landed quite well.

Jordyn Tyson obviously landed really, really well. Uh, he's got a more target competition with Chris Olave there, uh, and also a little bit pecking order competition. But Olave's missed a lot of time in the past with things like concussions. There's a pathway to sort of get out of Olave in 2027, so- Those guys really were, were fantastic.

Obviously J- my guy Jadarian Price landed extremely well. Um, and Kenyon Sadiq, you know, there's a lot of mixed opinions about him in fantasy, but his draft capital is very similar to guys like Brock Bowers, Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren. Uh, so he's in that sweet spot for, for... This franchise really, really is excited about him, and I think there's a little bit of trepidation in, like, the fantasy marketplace now because of what are the Jets and all that sort of thing. But Kenyon Sadiq, look at the draft capital. Uh, it's a very good landing spot for him.

I love that you brought up Carnell Tate because I think a lot of, of fantasy managers and dynasty managers are looking at Tennessee and say, "This offense is terrible." And I wanna say this offense was terrible. It is not terrible now, a-and I think if anyone is shying away from Tate because of Tennessee, just take advantage of that as a dynasty manager and, and scoop him up because I, I think it's a great landing spot too, Theo, I agree completely. Uh, how about some of the losers on the rookie side? Who, who really got dealt a bad hand here?

I think O- I mean, Omar Cooper is a player that I think we were pretty high on. Um, I, I'm still betting on Omar Cooper the talent, um, but Omar Cooper ending up as, uh, in some so- sort of a YAC, the YAC guy competition with Kenyon Sadiq, the manufactured touch guy, uh, competition with Kenyon Sadiq, and then opposite a kind of mega target earner in Garrett Wilson, who we fully expect to get back in the 150 range. Like, Cooper's a bet on talent guy, but I think it seriously caps his year one upside outcome, where if he would've landed differently, he could've been a player I think we could've been a little more excited from, like, a redraft ends. From dynasty, I think he's probably still fine. Uh, a number of losers in the running back department.

I think the hope for, like, Mike Washington died, um, and a number of these other running backs sort of falling to day three. We could make an argument Jonah Coleman getting to, uh, the Denver Broncos was a really fun spot for him, but it's still a considerable pathway for him as a takeover guy. Um, that's-- So we would've liked to seen him maybe go on day two.

Um, there was a few other wide receivers just sort of falling into that round three range when we would've maybe hoped for them to go in round two. Uh, when we're betting on, like, historical hit, hit rates, the hit rates go down considerably when you talk about going in d- in, in, in round three. But I mean, I think the, the positive was day one was a huge win for fantasy football.

Day two, pretty much a, a loss. There was a couple of fun ones. Eli Stowers, some mixed opinions on it, but Eli Stowers, I think y- the 2027 outlook for him, it'll be hard for me to see him not ranked as a TE1 in dynasty, provided they move off of Dallas Goedert. So I think he's sort of fine. Makai Lemon, if we would've had maybe him go to LA as opposed to Philadelphia, maybe the pathway towards WR2 viability in 2026 would've been a little bit lower, but the idea of him being in, like, a supercharged passing game, maybe that would've been a little bit better. But Makai Lemon I think is still fine, but obviously he's a little bit behind Tate and Tyson in terms of winners. But it was really the, the running backs, a lot of losers in the running back department. Um, and there was a number of other sort of wide receivers and tight ends that we could've seen land more cleanly. So a little bit of a weird day three, but I think day one was a big win for fantasy.

As you're looking now, uh, as a dynasty manager across the landscape, you know, let's l- we're gonna set this up as kind of buyers and then, uh, sellers and then, then holders. Um, who are the kinds of players right now, Theo, that dynasty managers, uh, should be trying to, to buy?

I mean, this is a time of year where I think the-- there starts to be a little bit more clarity as to the direction of which way is this team going, which way is that team going in your league. It's very, very easy to tell the best teams in your league at this point. A, a little, a little, like, simple rule is if this team is, is impossible to build in redraft or in best ball, then it's probably a pretty good, uh, dynasty roster if it's one of those really good ones.

But I think a lot of mar-- uh, managers sort of enter the draft and then post-draft will have an idea, am I a rebuilder? Am I a contender? And I'm looking at some of the, uh, for my contending rosters, um, am I able to make calculated moves with some of these rebuilding managers? And I'm specifically looking at a few older veterans that can be sort of mercenaries for my dynasty roster that can provide a ton of utility and help me win this year, where I'm getting a little bit of a discount because of their age.

There's a few guys I'm always sort of gravitating to. I've made several trades in some really big formats for David Montgomery, who I think is set to have a really high volume and potentially highly successful role on a Houston Texans team that seemed to really gravitate towards physicality this year in the NFL draft. Uh, I think that David Montgomery, his 2026 season could look comparable to Joe Mixon's 2024 season if it all kind of falls into place. Uh, we know that he's, uh, able of, of kind of taking on a l- high volume role. He's an opportunistic pass catcher, and I think there's some hunger there, um, where this is sort of like his last chance to put together a really high level, uh, fantasy... Not fantasy, but a high level NFL production this year. So I think David Montgomery, really, really fun one. I think he's sort of a, a really strong bet when you look at some of the running backs maybe ranked ahead of him because again, you're getting a, a discount because of the age.

The same flip side argument where I feel like this is a Terry McLaurin offensive focal point of Washington. He's a huge veteran winner coming out of the NFL draft. Not only does he avoid a Carnell Tate, a Makai Lemon, a Jordyn Tyson, guys that were sort of linked to Washington. There was also some people linking them to an Omar Cooper Jr., uh, maybe if they traded back. He avoids any wide receiver competition whatsoever, and he also avoids Jeremiyah Love, who could be sort of a change agent that can completely shift what Washington's offense looks like.

Terry McLaurin is really the only guy that is easy to project right now in Washington. There's other guys like Chig Okonkwo and Antonio Williams, maybe Treylon Burks. They're gonna get, uh, targets here, the Jaylin Lane types. And then at the running back position, it's sort of a log jam of guys competing for touches. Terry McLaurin could end up with his highest number of targets that he's had at any point in his career. David Blough seems to really, really value him. And if we see them shift maybe 10% fewer rush opportunities for Jayden Daniels, uh, than we saw as a rookie just to protect their, their, their long-term quarterback, then I think a lo- some of those-- you could see a little more easy button targets to Terry McLaurin, just sort of get him going. So I think 150 targets is in the range of outcomes.

I think the market's a little bit lower on Christian Watson than it could be. Uh, Christian Watson has really, really high upside this year. Some similar arguments to if Green Bay, after two straight playoff losses, shifts a little bit away from ground and pound with Josh Jacobs as much as humanly possible. Jacobs also gonna be 28 years old. He's also sort of a, a more expensive than Montgomery. He's also a solid buy. But if they shift a little bit away from let's get Josh Jacobs towards the very top of the NFL in terms of, um, rush share and, and rushing attempts and all that sort of stuff, then I think that Christian Watson could end up being a major beneficiary.

A lot of sort of enthusiasm for Matthew Golden. Jayden Reed bounce back. But Christian Watson, this team stuck by him and believed in him through the injuries, and I think him having a George Pickens-esque season is not out of the range of outcomes. I think he's really interesting.

And then if you wanna go with, like, a foundational piece to the dynasty roster, I think with Declan Doyle taking over as offensive coordinator, do we see Baltimore being a little bit more balanced? I think Zay Flowers could set to have maybe a really strong season this year, uh, a career year for him. And he was, uh, a borderline WR1 for last season, toward, towards the end of the WR1 rankings. So I think he could end up with a, a career year as well, but he costs you a little more than those sort, sort of older guys.

What are you looking to pay for something like these players that you've been talking about? What, what's, what's the... What, what do you, what would you like to pay, and then what will you end up paying?

Well, I think a, you know, a lot of times this time of year, if you're, if you're in competitive dynasty formats, I think you're not looking to rip people off, and you're not looking to sort of like go in there and, and sort of do the whole dance of I'm gonna send a crappy offer and then hopefully he counters me, that kind of deal. I wanna sort of build long-term relationships in my dynasty leagues where if people deal with me, they know that there's gonna be honesty in the situation where we can come to an agreement. The worst feeling this time of year for dynasty is when you see trades go down and it's players you would've been very interested in having on your roster, but you weren't even approached. And that probably has to do with the way that you've dealt with these managers in the past. So I play a lot of higher stakes FFPC dynasty leagues, and I'm sort of paying market rates.

I think for me, David Montgomery, trading a 2027 second for him makes a lot of sense. Um, and if you're a manager who's in a rebuild situation, I think he's a player that you know you're not gonna get a first for. You're looking for a cash-out opportunity. You might view that as a fair offer. In single QB formats before the NFL draft happened, I was buying him for multiple seconds in single, so I ended up paying like a 2.08, 2.12 in a single quarterback. I don't think that deal's available to you at this point after sort of how the NFL draft and dynasty rookie landscapes are.

Uh, and then Terry McLaurin, I've been OTC at the 1.12 and paid for Terry McLaurin in a single QB. And then in a start 10 format FFPC league, I paid a 1.12 for Christian Watson. So I think a lot of it's sort of going rates for those guys. I think it makes a lot of sense. And with Terry McLaurin, the 1.12 manager is probably very happy to get... Or, or the manager, uh, receiving the 1.12 probably happy to get out of the 31-year-old wide receiver, get some youth equity on their, on their team. But for me, if I have a contending roster, I'd much rather have a guy I think could average 15 points per game. Uh, and I think McLaurin is always kind of viewed as a, he, he could really kind of age gracefully.

Last year was his lowest points per game average of any point in his career. But the year before, he was just awesome. Set, like, the Commanders/Redskins record for the most touchdowns ever in a season. Uh, obviously, he has the chemistry with Jayden Daniels that a lot of the players on the roster do not have.

So I'm, I'm paying going rates for those guys. Um, and I think most of those, those deals I, I mentioned, there's-- it's some people are really down on the rookie draft picks, but you're always gonna have people in your leagues who want to embrace the new, want to embrace the rookie picks. Uh, and I think just treating people fairly and being, like, sort of honest with your trade negotiations will get a lot more done for you over the long term than maybe you're gonna rip off some guy at one point and then sort of s-set your long-term, uh, negotiations back.

Yep. Yeah, I'm a big believer that, uh, 'cause we get lots of questions of who won this trade, and I'm a big believer that the only right answer to that is both parties. I think everybody should win in a trade. It's better for the long run, as you say, for the league, for you as a trade partner.

Um, switching over to the other side, we now have our, our rebuilders. Now, obviously the-- I think at this moment, the, the golden ticket for a rebuilder is a 2027 first. Uh, you did not say 2027 first with any of the guys that you mentioned, but I assume there may be some guys out there that if they were dangled in front of you, that might, that might get it done, especially as a contender. But if you're on the rebuilding side, are there specific players, uh, or types of players that, uh, rebuilders should be looking at this time of year?

Yeah, I mean, I think if you're, if you're in a true rebuild sense where you're, uh, in a deeper dynasty format, I think the general rule is I wanna roster a lot of appealing handcuff running backs. It's always gonna be a trade chip that if the manager holding the starter i-it really wants to solidify their safety, you might be able to flip a guy who is kind of undeserving for a decent rookie pick for an okay rookie pick just by simply having him on your roster.

I think if you're a rebuilding manager, there's been a lot of mixed opinions of this, but I like embracing Ty Simpson, um, as a rookie draft target. The idea that you're gonna have to sit on him for two to three years is real. But if you're in a rebuild situation, this year doesn't matter, and you're gonna have this ch- this bartering chip or a long-term, uh, long-term outlook guy that has a Jordan Love pathway. So, if your situation changes and you suddenly become a contender, you're gonna have a player that a year from now might be closer to his starting window, uh, and becomes a player you can move off your roster. He's just a, also a player from a game theory perspective that is not gonna lose any value whatsoever. Uh, so I think he's a really, really fun one to embrace.

Uh, and then I think some of... I mean, I think, uh, another player that if I'm a true rebuilder, I'm gonna embrace Carson Beck because I think Carson Beck is going to give me an opportunity at a starting quarterback. There's only a finite number of them in your dynasty league. So if Carson Beck ends up taking-- a lot of people saying, you know, Carson Beck might start for the end of the year. And I think a lot of us who had Jacoby Brissett were thrilled with the production we got from Jacoby Brissett. But there's a massive disconnect between the dynasty community and, like, the beat reporters as to, like, what Brissett is. They want a change. He was one and 11 as a starter. There's been a little holdout. So Carson Beck, it feels like a, a zero-edge type player. But I think he might end up start- starting by, like, week six if, uh, the Arizona s- uh, season goes south. So you might end up with a player that you can flip. And then, you know, there's a non-zero chance, I wouldn't bet on it, but there's a non-zero chance that he's more effective than we're g- we're giving him credit for because of the offensive environment he's in.

And you might have an opportunity where he could be sort of a discount Tyler Shough, a guy who makes a push to hold onto the job for next year if it all sort of bounces his way. So little, little, uh, doses like that if I'm a true rebuild situation.

I mean, obviously, 2027 firsts are like gold, and they're very difficult to get. I do think 2027 seconds are more obtainable. And if the class is as good as we think it is, then the 2027 seconds are also gonna hold a ton of value. So I think getting those 2027 seconds, maybe there's trades I can make where I end up with two 2027 seconds. I think those will be worthwhile, especially when we look at, like, sort of the depth at the running back position that's up in this upcoming class.

So moves like that for the rebuilders. I think also for rebuilders, it's sort of like trade timing. There are certain players you might be better off holding into the season. Uh, all kinds of ways to go as a rebuilder. Uh, but I wanna maximize value on my team without paying any attention to, I need to fill out these spots, I need to fill out a starting lineup. You're a rebuilder, that becomes less and less important even when we get into August, when it becomes paramount for the contenders.

Let's move, uh, over to the sell side. Now, of course, we've, we've already talked about a couple of these guys, but who, uh, who if you're looking to sell, uh, as a dynasty manager, just generally right now, and we'll get to contenders and rebuilders, but what kinds of players are you trying to unload this time of year?

Yeah, I mean, I think there's a number of them that are interesting sell candidates. I think it starts for me with Bucky Irving, uh, where Bucky Irving, I don't like any of the vibes coming out of Tampa b- Tampa with him. I didn't like the Kenneth Gainwell signing whatsoever. Introduced that sort of level of pass catching back where Bucky Irving, a lot of the thes- thesis with him is, uh, you know, he's this terrific pass catcher. It was supposed to get easier for him in terms of earning car- targets when he escaped Rachaad White. Instead, they add a back that's sort of an better one. Then you add in last year, he sort of struggled to get back on the field with a foot injury, the shoulder injury, mental health stuff off the field. Uh, like a lot of things sort of like piled up at once with him, and now you get to May, June, and the shoulder injury is still lingering. Uh, not good. So I think Bucky Irving, it's sort of a big disconnect for me when I look at where he's ranked on some other sites, where he's at in terms of places like Keep Trade Cut. Um, uh, for me, he's one that I would consider getting out of. Uh, he sort of stands out. I, I think that there's a, a number of, of other player--

Uh, George Kittle would be another one, but he's older. But I do think you've got a window of optimism w- on the injury side, where San Francisco's sort of saying all the right, the right things. A lot of people listening to this probably are like, "You know, I get it. He's al- already an old tight end." Uh, but the tight end position, I think there's still Kittle enthusiasm out there. A lot of people still ranking him as a top 10 tight end in dynasty. I think he would be one that I'd be looking to get out of.

Um, those two sort of stand out. And then really, I think being open-minded to, I'll trade anybody if the price is right this time of year. There's a lot of like-- There's a lot of like, "Hey, this guy's untouchable." I think that's sort of the wrong approach here. Anybody-- You'll sell anybody in dynasty if it makes your roster better, uh, and it makes your flexibility a little bit better in terms of winning this year or completing your goal for the future.

If you're, if you're a contending team, you know, you talked of course about some of the guys already, but if you're specifically a contending team, who are you looking to unload this time of year knowing that there's some balance between what your roster is now and, and what you want it to be in the future?

I mean, if I'm a contending team, I, I might be looking to consolidate i-in spots. If, if you're, if you're a contending team and your, your best, your best attribute is your depth, then I don't mind trying to consolidate and get into better players. I think when-- if I'm a contender with considerable depth this time of year, I'm gonna look to try to ac-acquire like guys who are at the top of the food chain and be pretty aggressive in those two-for-ones, those three-for-ones.

And I think if your rookie draft hasn't happened, uh, using maybe a player and a rookie pick to try to scale up and, and get a really obtainable, uh, a really high-end asset that might be obtainable because of the team situation, where there's gonna be managers who would benefit more from having multiple shots at it, um, than just a single shot. So I'm sort of looking to kind of make those tier up type trades if I'm a contender this time of year. Uh, the players that I mentioned earlier, like the David Montgomery, Terry McLaurin, if those ty- kind of players, uh, would enter your starting lineup right away, then I think if I'm a contending, uh, team, I'm gonna go ahead and, and try to acquire them.

Uh, Christian Watson, I think is a fluid type asset where I'm looking to add, uh, Christian Watson to pretty much any kind of build, but I would gravitate towards a win-now strategy because of his injury history I do think there's a little bit to be said that Watson might just be-- might have just solved his injury problems, and he might be in the clear, so having him as sort of a longer-term asset might make sense. He's got contract insulation as well. So I'm looking to sort of m-make those sort of micro trades, try to tier up, try to get those players. I think it's, you know your roster better, but if I look at my roster and say, "Whoa, I've got six guys on my bench that will be locked-in starters for, for half of my league," then I wanna use my depth, um, to my benefit and tier up, and be a little less deep, maybe a little bit more fragile in terms of my long-term outlook, but have that firepower that if it all comes together, I'm really in great shape to win the league.

Yeah, I think you bring up a really good point about can this guy go into your starting lineup right now? Because I think there is the distinction, and I'd love to hear your view on this, a distinction between trading as a contending team for starters for firepower now versus trading for depth or for handcuffs or insurance kind of policies on players. What are your thoughts on that distinction? And which strategy, if, if you just prefer one, which one do you typically find yourself pursuing?

Yeah, I mean, uh, for me, I think I'm usually push the chips in guy and try to consolidate. Um, but again, uh, y-it's, it's your league format. If you're in a 20-man roster FFPC league, it's easier to perform that strategy than, like, a 30-man roster MFL league where you feel like anybody worthwhile is gonna be in your flex.

It also has to do with your structure and your scoring format. There's gonna be certain leagues with a heavy tight end premium where being really aggressive towards getting those elite tight ends might make more of an edge for you. If I'm in a league where there's no tight end premium, that sort of changes as well. Um, but really it's, uh, it's roster struction de- structure dependent and league scoring dependent. But everything being equal, I wanna push the chips in and try to get those elite rule breaker type guys where it's more beneficial to me to try to get a player that is gonna average 18 to 20 points in this season or have an opportunity to do so than maybe try to piecemeal it together with a number of 12-points-per-game type WR3 types and, and low-end RB2s. So I'm, I'm sort of push the chips in and go for it type guy. Um, but again, it all depends on your format, uh, and your structure and your scoring.

You were talking earlier about two for one, three for one kind of deals, and I assume that means to get the one, in this case, you're sending away some assets. What are the kinds of assets that you're willing to send away or, or looking to send away in those kinds of deals?

Well, I think y-it u- it usually comes with trying to move up from a guy that's being pushed into, like, the, I would say, the gravitational pull of the high-end WR1 or ri-r- or RB1 that maybe doesn't have that RB1 type upside. The idea of moving off of an Omarion Hampton plus to go get myself a Jahmyr Gibbs would just be sort of like in the royal sense of what that sort of deal makes, where if a manager doesn't have the horses but he's holding a Jahmyr Gibbs, does he want to piecemeal it together with maybe a low-end first Omarion Hampton and a usable wide receiver? He might. Um, do I have a chance that Omarion Hampton could burn me in that deal? Yes, but I have a much better chance that Jahmyr Gibbs is gonna smash in a major, major way this year. We've also seen a number of guys over a number of years that sort of get pushed up heading into year two, where the idea being everything went well for them as rookies, therefore everything must explode for them in year two as sophomores.

And that's been something that's burned some dynasty managers over the years, where you think of a Garrett Wilson. Garrett Wilson, Offensive Rookie of the Year, looked awesome, was still like a low-end WR2, but there was all this hope and optimism in the fantasy community with Aaron Rodgers' acquisition that he was just gonna go and become Davante Adams. Didn't happen, and he cost dynasty managers a fortune that off-season, cost redraft managers a first-round pick, and now he's sort of settled in to, like, he kind of is what he is. He's a really good asset, but he's not an elite one.

We saw it last year with people wanting to push Brian Thomas Jr. and Ladd McConkey up the board about as high as they could, where it didn't work out, and people are treat- treating BTJ as a player that you should take over Amon-Ra St. Brown in redraft and maybe over Amon-Ra St. Brown in, in dynasty. Ladd McConkey was the big recency bias of he had that smash performance in the NFL playoff game. Now, Ladd and BTJ could really bounce back, but once you've sort of taken that hit and you've shown what a downside season can be, you lose that dynasty value because you're not Teflon. You're not one of these Bijan Robinson, Ja'Marr Chase types that just hold value. So, uh, for me, I think looking at the year two guys and saying, are they being steamed up a little bit too much because, uh, they're second-year players? That's sort of a player that maybe I would move off my roster for somebody who is a true alpha, is a true league winner type, where I like having a-- I, I mean, Ashton Jeanty I think is a little different, but I do think like Omarion Hampton, there's a range of outcomes where he scores 20 touchdowns this year and burns everybody saying anything negative. There's another range of outcomes where he's, like, RB13 this year, and he's really good and he's really, really worthwhile, but he doesn't pay off at the one-two turn in redraft and best ball. And for dynasty, you maybe wish you would've considered moving him. Right now, he's being priced like Jonathan Taylor year two.

So I think that's a little bit enthusiastic for Omarion Hampton, considering the number of mouths to feed in LA. Um, just players like that.

I think really a player that we all love the talent but the price tag might be steaming up a little bit too much. Tetairoa McMillan is an absolute monster, um, and I think he's got many, many years of production in this league. He's a, he's a WR1 type. But if I need high-end scoring from him this season, I have a little bit of trepidation about Bryce Young being able to support his WR9 in dynasty price tag. So like, for me, that's sort of-- Guys like that, um, I worry about a little bit, and it's sort of like it sounds almost like sacrilege to say that we should move off of a guy who's entering year two.

But I think just the way the dynasty marketplace is, sometimes you're, you are selling guys at the peak of their value, and maybe the market thinks that they're gonna keep moving up, when in fact they just sort of flatten out or move down slightly. It's just like stocks. There's nothing different. There's certain companies that are blue chip companies and you know it, but then you think about these companies that were really big at one point and then sort of cratered down a little bit, and they're not really best of breed anymore. So it's the same thing with players in dynasty. It's being able to identify who's real and who's very good, but the marketplace is thinking is this dynamic, elite, foundational piece where they're really maybe a little bit more like a WR2 than a WR1, or a top 15 running back as opposed to a top five running back. And those sort of, sort of margins and being able to understand value is sort of how you win consistently.

Yeah. Yeah. I think you and I have the same sort of strong preference that if we're a contending team and we have the ability to improve our starting lineup, that's priority number one. I have had team that's very fortunate in its starting lineup. There's-- The, the price to get it any better is going to be a lot, so I'm actually gonna need to look more toward the depth and, uh, the-- to shore up, uh, my flank side on that.

Are there any players or any types of players that, uh, dynasty managers who feel the need to, uh, build up a little bit of depth or have some higher quality depth behind some of their starters? Any of those kind of guys that you would be targeting in that situation?

Yeah, I mean, if I'm specifically going for depth, then I'm looking at some guys that I think could be upcoming free agents that might be able to hit. I think a guy like a Jordan Addison right now, where we've seen Jordan Addison perform at a very high level. We've seen Jordan Addison maybe make some, uh, decisions off the field that you're like, "What's going on there, Jordan Addison?" But in terms of on-the-field production, he's had it. Uh, I think that the, the fact that he was arrested like a couple of times here or there, you know, handful of arrests, um, that sort of made it where is his long-term outlook in Minnesota a little less clear? I think it is. But I do think if Jordan Addison enters the open market, there's gonna be a number of teams lining up saying that this could be the missing piece. F- uh, first-round draft capital, scored a ton of touchdowns, has had a lot of explosive plays. And he's 24 years old. So I'm looking at sort of those sort of players that could bounce back and regain value at any point. Um, that would be the kind of depth that, that I would be looking to acquire. And I'd be looking at players where is the, the dynasty marketplace sort of mispricing them a little bit?

I look at a guy like a Parker Washington, where he's steamed up a little bit, but he's still like a low-end WR4 in a lot of people's rankings, which I think is egregious. I think that he's the type of player that is obtainable for all formats. 24 years old, looked like a Chris Godwin down the stretch last year. I think he's super, super interesting.

Um, and then I'm embracing some of these rookies this year where the market might be down on the rookie class. I'm gonna look at some players that I think could end up hitting above their weight class, um, and I think are gonna get, uh, good opportunities in 2026, but potential 2027 breakout guys.

I think Antonio Williams this year is gonna gain some value. I think Germie Bernard is gonna gain some value. And then I look at Oscar Delp and Eli Raridon as two guys that could really be fun assets heading into 2027. Th- and there's a major gap, a considerable gap between them and, uh, the Eli Stowers, Kenyon Sadiq tier.

I mean, in some leagues it's like three rounds difference, um, where if we go to 2027, those guys are both fun.

And then I think also there's a, a, a, an idea that the Rams had the most touchdown passes to tight ends of any team last year. They're using heavy-- They mixed four tight ends in. They draft Max Klare in round two. They draft Terrance Ferguson last year in round two. Those two guys are so obtainable and so cheap that a double tap of Klare and Ferguson, if one can really separate from the other, and I have the roster flexibility to do so, having both of those guys rostered, no matter what your build, those two guys heading into 2027, if one separates, then there's a chance, uh, not a great chance, but a chance that that could be the number two option in the passing game behind Puka Nacua if they move off Davante Adams.

So I'm into it and I think is the tight end usage and the tight end targets indicative of the-- do they really want four g- pass, pass catchers at the tight end spot, or do they want it to end up being one guy sort of becomes the highest usage guy and the other three are sort of the stylistic guys? I wonder, and I don't think that they've got it all figured out either, but we've got sort of the brightest mind in football attempting to do stuff there. So I want access to Sean McVay tight ends.

I like access to Sean McVay, anybody. I don't know that I wanna try to figure out which of those tight ends I wanna put in my lineup this week. But what-- But I do like about it, and I think you've hit it just right, they don't quite know yet what the-- how they want to arrange this. Sean McVay is a very recent convert to these multi-tight end packages. There used to be nobody who used 11 personnel more often than he did. Uh, but when you only really have one functioning wide receiver at times, you have to do something different, and this was h- part of his solution. And, and from a p- pure pro football standpoint, it's brilliant. From a fantasy standpoint, it's a little more challenging.

We'd like a little bit more clarity there. I also love that you mentioned-- Oh, go ahead.

No, I was gonna say also the, the success they had in the run game and how it consolidates the wide receiver targets as well, I think a lot of these heavy personnel, you're, you're able to really get the right guys the ball, um, and you're able to make the running game more functional, and you're sort of able to put the pressure on the defense with what their personnel has to look like.

So I can understand it from an NFL perspective. I think also from a team building perspective, tight ends are cheaper. They-- paying, like the amount of money that has to go to wide receivers versus tight ends. So it's like game theory-wise, if you're a general manager, sure, I'm happy to draft, you know, a, a Max Klare in round two because if Max Klare gets a second contract and Germie Bernard gets a second contract, Germie Bernard's gonna cost exponentially more even if Max Klare outproduces him.

So I think it's an interesting one, and I think we've also seen it from the, the top tight ends where multiple drafts now we're seeing tight ends go in the top 15-ish picks. Uh, that's out of the norm when we look back at how most drafts were for many years. So really a changing and evolving, uh, position, but I think one that we can find edges with in fantasy football if we sort of roll with the punches.

I, I think they're, they're great guys to try to target. What, what you-- do you, uh, uh, look at all at, at contract kind of situations or cap situations with teams as you're thinking about dynasty players over the next few years?

Yeah, I, I think you, I think you absolutely need to. I think free agents have been a significant edge, uh, and embracing these free agents before they hit the market, uh, has provided a lot of returns. So I think knowing who's gonna be in the free agent... It's, uh, as simple as knowing who's gonna be in the free agent class. And knowing, uh, are the teams more likely or not to re-sign them.

Uh, I think it's also important to look at, you know, we're not quite as concerned about age apexes as we were maybe in the past, especially when it comes to the top, top players in, in fantasy football. But when it comes to, hey, I have a 30-plus-year-old at this position, uh, and I just drafted a guy in round three with hyper athleticism, it's sort of an easy one to understand that Eli Raridon could end up being a really big piece of, uh, Drake Maye offense. Uh, and he's got sort of the, the raw athletic ability at a position where athleticism matters more than any position in football, arguably, at the tight end position. Um, and then Delp is, is in- interesting because there's a little bit more target competition with Tyson and Olave, but he's also this really hyper-athletic player.

Juwan Johnson, the team really liked last year. Kellen Moore really liked last year. But again, them sort of getting out of a Juwan Johnson contract in 2027 is very doable. So both of those teams sort of showed their hands with Delp and with Raridon. And the good thing is, if we're wrong on this one and it ends up being another Hunter Henry year or another Juwan Johnson year, then you're using sort of low-end rookie draft capital, um, on a player that still is gonna hold some value though, uh, but it might be a little more Terrance Ferguson type, type outlook than, than, uh, what we're talking about.

But I do think it's interesting that the tight end position in general, you had the most tight ends ever invited to the Combine, so the NFL really valued this tight end class. And then we get Kenyon Sadiq and Eli Stowers, two guys where the fantasy marketplace were really over the top of, these are the one and the two. Uh, I certainly was, and I think they're both really, really good players to roster in dynasty. But if we have one of these tight ends ranked TE3 or below, however you shake it out, two years from now be the top, uh, fantasy producer at the tight end position from this draft class, then that's a huge, huge shift in win rates and potentially, like, a league-altering, uh, a league-altering rookie pick for you.

If you end up with a Raridon outproducing a, a, uh, Stowers or a Stowers and a Sadiq, then that Raridon pick becomes one of the best picks you could have made in your, in your, in your draft. And I'm seeing such a large delta. So I ended up drafting a ton of Eli Raridon in the third round in tight end premium formats because he was there. And Oscar Delp fell even more. I have, uh, some fourth-round Oscar Delp exposure, um, which I was very surprised at. I know Brett Whitefield, uh, who evaluates prospects for us from the film side, he's outstanding at Fantasy Points, and Delp was one of his guys. Delp's one of these players who never had more like a 25 catch season at Georgia, so like lacks considerable, uh, production.

But in terms of what Georgia was last year, it was like a ton of Zachariah Branch kind of manufactured looks. Delp could end up being a guy where we look back and say, "Whoa, this guy exploded as an NFL player, fit in very well." And we've seen multiple tight ends have success with Kellen Moore on multiple teams, including Juwan Johnson last year. So just a lot to like about that situation.

Yes, I think there's a, there's one rookie league where I came away with Stowers, Raridon, and Delp because I thought those were the best values in each of those rounds. And one of those will, will be a TE1, maybe two, possibly all three of them. Uh, I, but I, I just love that kind of flexibility with those guys.

And the position, uh, as you say, it's evolving, has long been kind of looked down upon. Uh, I think that we need to wake up to the evolution of the NFL a- and the, the resurgence of that position.

Just briefly, are there any kind of guys that you at this moment are just content to hold and wait and see what happens, like an A.J. Brown kind of type player? Is there something that you are very cautious about making a move either for or, or trading for or trading away right now?

I think that's an interesting, interesting question. Um, I think for me, there's-- I- it's v- it's a very hard one to kind of, to kind of take because again, it's sort of like if I get that strong offer, then I'm not gonna say, "Hey, no, I don't wanna move this guy because I wanna see how he does in the first month of the season."

But I do think there's something to be said with your A.J. Brown take, where does the marketplace steam him up even more when he's moved to a team like New England? I don't know. I think it's already baked in. Uh, I look at the, the price tags over for like Underdog, and a lot of times the best ball marketplace is kind of showing us where drafters are at because we're getting so much skin in the game, we're getting so much frequency of drafting. And DeVonta Smith is being valued as like a borderline WR1. A.J. Brown's being valued as a borderline WR1. I don't think that happens unless the market's sort of banking on DeVonta Smith is gonna be the WR1 in Philly, and A.J. Brown will be the WR1 most likely in New England.

So I get it. I think that A.J. Brown is one where, could I get more for A.J. Brown if he shows up to New England and dominates in the first month of the season and has a Davante Adams LA like, like run? Then yes, I get it. But that being said, Drake Maye didn't really hyper target anybody. We haven't seen Dr- uh, and again, the sample size is so small for Drake Maye and his really his, his highest pedigreed target earner last year was like a 32-year-old Stefon Diggs.

So like A.J. Brown's obviously a game changer in terms of the level of, of talent. But I do think there's something to be said that if somebody wants to sort of overpay me for A.J. Brown or make a very fair offer. I'm open-minded to that one.

Um, I, I wouldn't say there's anybody who I'm like, I simply must, must hold.

I, I'll give you a couple of-- I'll give you one or two guys I, I would be, I would be interested in holding until the season actually starts. Jayden Reed is so steamed down right now in terms of what you're getting for him, um, in terms of dynasty trade value, that I'd wanna hold onto Jayden Reed even if we get these injury positive reports. Um, because I think if Matthew Golden doesn't hit, Jayden Reed could end up returning to sort of being like that super exciting guy in the LaFleur offense. I also think there's an interesting sort of Jayden Reed take here where Green Bay loses Emanuel Wilson, doesn't add anything at running back. We saw Jayden Reed his rookie year get those manufactured Deebo-type touches in the backfield. Could we see a situation like that if Josh Jacobs goes down? So I think Jayden Reed has so many outs right now, and Green Bay just re-signed him.

A veteran who I'd wanna maybe hold into the season and not just fully dump right now would be a Chris Godwin. Chris Godwin's in, like, this spot where nobody's even thinking about him, but he's got the familiarity with Baker Mayfield. It's an offense we think is gonna be good. Um, and there's guys like Jalen McMillan, Ted Hurst, uh, Tez Johnson that we're like, could take the next step, could see their usage increase. But probably the, the best bet to make is Chris Godwin just being a very strong number two target in this offense, and he's being priced like a really, really cheap.

And then I think Jonathan Brooks is one where it's worthwhile to fantasy managers just to hold. Uh, you know, you're-- you've s- you've held him this long.

Yeah, exactly.

Sell him? I mean, you know, and we've seen Dave Canales' offense just be so, so strong for running back production. We've seen Chuba Hubbard be benched before. I think the, the vibes for Chuba Hubbard are very good right now. But if Chuba Hubbard doesn't play well, or if he gets injured again, or if he, if he regresses, then I think Jonathan Brooks is like one step away from an offense where Dave Canales every year seems to have a running back crush his ADP. Chuba Hubbard did it two years ago. Rico Dowdle did it last year. And then of course, Rachaad White in Tampa Bay destroyed his ADP, uh, was like a top six scorer, and you got him as like RB24. So Jonathan Brooks at this point, I'm like, just, just hold Jonathan Brooks, see what happens. And if it goes to zero, it goes to zero.

But if it hits, you could end up with a guy who could return to top 20 running-- top 20 running back value in a very short period of time if he comes back and looks like old Jonathan Brooks.

Yeah, and at least if you're trying to move him at that point, he is now much higher in value at the moment and probably could get nothing for him because I think the, the faith in him in the dynas- by the dynasty community is very, very low at this point.

Uh, before, before we, we sign off, what would you say is the, the biggest mistake that you see dynasty managers making this time of year?

I think the biggest mistake is, is trying to fill out a lineup. You don't have to fill up a-- fill out a lineup at all. Uh, you are in the month of May. This is like sicko season where a lot of people aren't even thinking about it once the rookie draft is over. Um, don't worry about filling out the lineup. There's gonna be plenty of opportunities for you to address your team structure as the summer moves along. Of course, if you get the opportunity to add guys, add them, but you shouldn't feel the pressure to fill out that lineup. This is the time of year to have the best possible flexibility and the most value on your roster that you can.

Then you're gonna have the ability to really go and make some strong deals in July, in August. And just getting into the season, if I'm weak at the RB2 position in the season, but I have a ton of firepower, then I know it's sort of gonna be an opportunity for me to sort of push the chips in when I have a little more clarity to go and make trades and all that kind of stuff.

But I think it's really looking at your roster and saying, "I need to have this spot, this spot, this spot, and this spot filled completely." That's sort of a big mistake that managers make in startups. It's a big mistake that managers make this time of year. Um, just acquire value. Do what you can to get value, and you're gonna get opportunities to get more balanced and get your structure a little bit better as we get closer to the season. Don't feel the pressure to make sh- make everything look perfect in May.

That's great insight, Theo. Thanks so much. And, and great stuff all day long. Uh, thanks so much for being here and joining me today. Before we go, Theo, tell everybody where they can find you. Pretty much any podcast they can find you, but where else can they find you?

Yeah, you can find all my dynasty rankings, um, and my written work over at fantasypoints.com. Uh, we're updating the dynasty rankings consi- uh, consistently. I write the Dynasty Market Report over at f- at, at F- I almost said Footballguys.

You're welcome to. Love to have you.

Ha, slip there. Um, shout out to, shout out to Sigmund Bloom.

Um, but Dynasty Life is my dynasty podcast. I'm dropping that like once a week all season long. Uh, you can find that over at Fantasy Points Dynasty YouTube. All of my content is over at Fantasy Points YouTube, Fantasy Points Dynasty YouTube. Uh, make sure you go check out those two channels and you'll find all my stuff.

I also record School of Scott with Scott Barrett, uh, once a week. You can find that anywhere you get your podcasts, but that's also on the YouTube channel. So really, Fantasy Points YouTube, Fantasy Points Dynasty YouTube. I'm there every day, so you can find me all the time.

All right. There'll be links to that down in the show notes, particularly if you are on YouTube, but also check that out on Apple or Spotify. And thank you so much, Theo, for joining me today, and thank you everyone who has tuned in either on YouTube or on your favorite podcast platform. Please do me a favor and click the bell if you're on YouTube, like, subscribe.

Uh, the best thing you can do right now to help this podcast grow and find an audience, a bigger audience, is to go over to Apple, uh, drop a five-star rating and a nice review about how either this episode or this show helps you to become a better fantasy manager. And we will be back again next week with another outstanding guest on Dynasty Compass.