Win Your Startup Draft with Pat Fitzmaurice

Pat Fitzmaurice from FantasyPros joins Jeff Blaylock to break down how to approach a dynasty startup draft. First of all, have a real strategic plan before you go on the clock, and then stick to it. Jeff and Fitz cover positional priority, Superflex quarterback timing, TE premium math, and how to use in-draft trading to get your guys and avoid players you don't believe in.

💡 Key Takeaways

• Three strategic paths — Win now, year two, productive struggle — and how they shape every pick.
• Why dynasty-optimal value drives the first four to five rounds regardless of strategy.
• TE premium: the actual math on how much (or little) it boosts tight end value (hint: it's not 1.5x).
• Superflex QB timing: when to take your first and second quarterback and what happens when you wait too long.
• How to structure an in-draft trade, both moving up for a target and moving down when the board is flat.
• Why the biggest startup mistake is an incoherent roster.
• Fitz's Golden Rule: draft players you believe in. 

⏱️ Chapters

00:00 – Introduction
03:52 – Startup draft mindset & prep
06:24 – The three strategic paths explained
10:03 – How strategy changes your picks by round
15:33 – Positional priorities in early rounds
22:08 – League settings' impacts on roster construction
28:28 – When to take quarterbacks, 1QB & Superflex
30:26 – TE premium: the math behind the myth
38:05 – Running backs: talent vs. opportunity
47:32 – In-draft trading: moving up, down, and why
01:00:03 – Golden rule: draft players you believe in

🔗 Links Mentioned

• FantasyPros Dynasty Football podcast 
• Follow Pat Fitzmaurice on Twitter/X 
• FantasyPros 
• Jeff's Dynasty Rankings on Footballguys 
• Follow Jeff on Twitter/X 
• Footballguys 

👍 Support the Show

If you enjoy Dynasty Compass, please consider subscribing, leaving a five-star rating, and sharing the show with another dynasty manager. Reviews on Apple Podcasts help more dynasty players discover the show and help the Dynasty Compass community grow.

Visit dynastycompass.com to learn more about the show.

Transcript

Jeff: Few things are more exciting in fantasy football than a draft. And in dynasty, the startup draft sets your course for the next several years. Finding value in each round can propel you toward perennial contention, true north in our compass metaphor. But miss on picks, well, you may need to go south and rebuild.
Now, a lot of fantasy shows are gonna talk about who you should draft, but today we're gonna talk about how you should draft. Pat Fitzmaurice from FantasyPros and their Dynasty Football podcast joins me today to talk about his three strategic paths, how he values each position, when he wants to target those positions, when to trade startup picks, and more of his startup draft strategy.
And that's next on Dynasty Compass.
Jeff: Welcome to Dynasty Compass. I am your host, Jeff Blaylock. Thank you so much for tuning in today, whether you're watching on YouTube or listening to us on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast platform. We are glad to have you here today. I'm also glad to have here today my friend Pat Fitzmaurice from FantasyPros.
He is here today to talk about startup drafts. Pat, how you doing? And welcome to the show.
Fitz: Thanks for having me, Jeff. Uh, I'm doing mostly well. Really glad to see you and catch up, I gue- I'm glad we get the opportunity to talk. I am a little sad this morning just because I am, uh, as, as you can maybe tell from my hat, I'm a Milwaukee native and, uh, last night my Milwaukee Bucks, who are probably my first love as far as sports teams, even before the Packers and Brewers, traded Giannis Antetokounmpo, who m- m- the most consequential player, I don't know if I can say best player 'cause we did have Lew Alcindor back before he
Jeff: Lew Alcindor back in
Fitz: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, but, uh, the most consequential Milwaukee Buck in team history, and just he meant more than I think most teams' stars do to other teams just because he really embraced the city of Milwaukee.
Um, you know, wasn't even more so than, like, LeBron James with Cleveland being the favorite son. Uh, Giannis adapted the city, adopted the city, and, uh, vice versa. And, uh, it's just, you know, it was a really great, amazing run with him, resulted in a championship. I'm sad to see him go. I knew it was gonna happen, but the finality of it is still, uh, you know, I'm, I'm dealing with that today.
Jeff: Yeah. Uh, I, I, I know that you are in mourning, so, so we will, we will be kind of gentle there. I, I did see, uh, in the specifics of the trade, looks like a lot of draft capital coming over. So this, this may be the kind of a trade that, while sad today, helps to rebuild the franchise going forward and bring some more championships up to, uh, up to Milwaukee.
Um, and but also though, I think it has to be a little bit of a relief in that this has been a, this has been a when are we trading him? When is he leaving kind of a question for several seasons now, hasn't it?
Fitz: Yeah, they knew. They were just, uh, some bad moves in the front office. They had cornered themselves and they weren't going to be able to bring in an adequate supporting cast to, to get another title with Giannis. So yeah, it was a long time in the coming. Um, it wasn't exactly a, a ripping the Band-Aid off.
It took a long time, so yeah, had a, had time to prepare my emotions for it, but, uh, you know, still sad to see him go.
Jeff: Yeah, it certainly is. It certainly is. Well, let's shift over, uh, from, from real basketball to fantasy football, which is, uh, going to be a happier world for us today. We're gonna talk about startup drafts, which is one of the, you know, most important parts of dynasty is when you get that startup right, you can do very well for a long time to come.
If you don't do it right, you're gonna be in, uh, in line for several years of being an ATM machine for your league. Uh, so as we get sort of thinking about startups, what, what is your mindset when you're about to participate in a dynasty startup draft? What is, what is going through Fitz's mind as he sits down to Sleeper or MFL or NFFC or whatever the, the platform is and, uh, that little draft light turns on and you're on the clock?
Fitz: Yeah. First off, Jeff, I'm, I'm really excited. Um, it's a chance to build a roster I'm going to be managing for years. Uh, I know that not all of the players I draft will be on that roster for more than a few months, but still, um, you know, I'm, I'm about to do my first startup draft in two years. Last year I just knew I was overblown on leagues and did not wanna add one.
Um, we did do... There was sort of a, a sponsor affiliated draft that we did on, uh, Reality Sports Online, but that was not your average, uh, dyna- dynasty draft. It was more salaries and long-term deals. Not traditional fantasy football. Lot of fun, but, um, so yeah, I have just, as much as I love starting league, and startup drafts are about the most fun thing you can do in fantasy football, um, I just knew I was overloaded with the management of my existing dynasty teams.
But then this past off-season, a very close friend of mine said he wanted to start, like, a home league. Uh, a bunch of the guys that we play in redraft leagues with. Yeah, and I, I could not turn that down. So yeah, and we're starting that one up, I think July 2nd is our start day. So I'm pretty excited about that one.
Um, so yeah, I mean, excitement is, is the one mindset, but in addition to that, I'm, I'm a little nervous, a little anxious. Uh, kind of like a first date when you think about it. Like, I've been married, uh, almost 22 years and, and don't exactly miss the first date experience, but, uh, it was always quite the adrenaline rush, and I guess I get the same sort of butterflies for a dynasty startup.
Jeff: What ti- what kind of prep do you typically do before you go into a startup draft? Now, obviously you being, you know, an industry guy, you already have this enormous bank of knowledge, so your, your prep may be kind of limited compared to what some other managers who are more casual might be. But what kind of prep do you do, and then what kind of prep would you recommend that, uh, that dynasty managers who maybe aren't as connected would do before they start their drafts?
Fitz: The main thing with prep, and I know we're gonna get into this more, but is sort of, um, deciding on the startup strategy you wanna use. And, uh, you know, I generally think it's three. It's either win in year one, win in year two, where it's more like a two or three-year ETA, or productive struggle, where you're just going really young and trying to build a team that can maybe dominate in three to four years.
Um, so I, I like to have an idea of which of those I'm gonna follow going in, and then it's just a matter of, um, I guess in our business, Jeff, we, we spend enough time thinking about these guys. So we kinda know how we feel about all these players. Uh, but I do wanna have a set of rankings and, uh, you know, maybe FantasyPros or, y- you know, Footballguys, where you have a lot of people contributing to the rankings and you can leverage the wisdom of crowds.
So I like to have not only my own dynasty rankings, but some, um, s- other ranking source with, uh, multiple people contributing and, and sort of, uh, weighing in with their opinions. Seeing how my rankings differ from theirs, and that's also going to, uh, determine ADP. I might wanna have some... I- if there's a ADP, uh, a set of, I don't know, dynasty ADP data that I can find credible and think that might be useful in my draft, I'll have that handy, too.
Um, so yeah, I mean, it's, it's good. I would recommend that people probably have not just one analyst's rankings in front of them when they're doing the draft, but maybe several so they can sort of, uh, you know, not, not get drawn into any one person's vision.
Jeff: Yeah, you mentioned ADP whi- which I, I think we see quite a bit of use of that, particularly by newer players into the format or, or less knowledgeable players. You've got a couple of different sources. You, you have, as you say, you know, FantasyPros or Footballguys are one of the sites that maintain sort of a running ADP in different formats.
But then you also have the ADP or something of that ilk that's in the actual platform that you're using. You know, how, how important are those to you? Are, are they a main source of information for you, or are they sort of a, a check to see where everybody else might be thinking when it comes to their drafts?
Fitz: It depends because that queue and how players are list... We know that there are certain platforms that have the queue in weird ways, and there are really good players and some that are way down in the queue. It's always good to familiarize yourself with the queue because you know some people are just kind of drafting off that more so than rankings.
Um, they might look at the top names in the queue and that's their range of possibilities with the next pick. So it's good to know which players are much further down in the queue than they should be, or which are maybe higher than they should be, just to know where people might make some mistakes, uh, the people who are leaning on the queue.
Jeff: Y- you mentioned a moment ago, a- and we'll get into this now, you, you had basically, uh, you have three, you know, principal, um, strategies that you're using. The win now strategy, which in, in our compass metaphor is going to be the west. That is where you throw everything at getting that championship right this moment in year one.
Year two, which is, uh, a little bit more in the northerly direction, north being perennial contention, and that's where the productive struggle ultimately is hopefully leading you, uh, is to the, that, that north star or that north direction. How do those different frameworks affect how you, how you draft? A- and how do you choose, uh, which one you wanna go with in any given league?
Fitz: Yeah, in, um, so in win now, I am willing to take discounts, more willing to take discounts on older veterans. Um, but in the first few rounds, Jeff, I'm, I'm still looking for the best dynasty values. So I, I am factoring age into the equation, even if I'm trying to win now. And, um, maybe the best example I can use is, uh, so, uh, I, I know where I'm picking in my startup next month.
I'm picking 1.02. And, um, le- let's say I decided I wanted to do a win now operation with this team, um, and, and Josh Allen gets picked 1.01. I'm still taking Drake Maye over Lamar Jackson. Um, even though I have Lamar Jackson ranked ahead of Drake Maye in, uh... Well, I, I have Maye ranked ahead of Jackson in dynasty.
In redraft, I have Jackson ranked higher this year. But I have to go where the value is because I know, like, trade value comes into it, market value, um, and I think Maye has substantially more market value than Lamar Jackson. I mean, not substantially more. I don't know, 10% or whatever it is. But, um, yeah, so, like, I feel compelled to fol- follow that.
It's more after the first few rounds where you start to, um, use those picks to, to round out your strategy. So, and when in year two, I mean, you are focusing mostly on those dynasty values, even past those first three or four rounds. Like, you wanna factor youth into the equation, although you don't wanna totally punt on immediate value either because, well, you're trying to win in year two and not year four or five.
Jeff: Yeah, so the, you know, some of the players that I can think of now that would be in that boat, I mean, you have someone like a Davante Adams with the Rams who has up until this point been highly productive, but the, the future runway is very short for him. You have someone like a George Kittle in San Francisco who has put up elite production when he's on the field, coming off of a torn Achilles.
He's getting older. Are, are these the kind of players you're looking for in those sort of rounds, say five through, through eight, five through nine if you're winning now? Or is there, there different kinds of veterans that you're really trying to pick up here?
Fitz: No, those are the guys because some of the running backs going around where Derrick Henry goes might be guys like, uh, Blake Corum and Kyle Monangai who aren't even the starters on their own teams. Um, let alone guys who have a chance to give you like a 1,700 rushing yard season the way Derrick Henry could conceivably do it.
So, um, that's exactly the type of guy you're sort of targeting in the win now strategy. And if you're in a, a win year two or productive struggle mode, then you're taking Corum or Monangai over, over Henry even though that might feel strange to you.
Jeff: So you, you said you had 1.02 in this upcoming draft. That's very much an early position. I mean, does that-- I mean, we've heard your, your kind of strategy. It sounds like it's either Allen or Maye is, is going to be that. So for your league mates listening now, that's, that's where he's going. So if you, if you were curious, it's gonna be one of those two, uh, unless he, he calls an audible the day of.
Does, does that early position, does that change how you would approach this draft than if you were in a late position or if you were in a middle position?
Fitz: Yeah, I'm, uh, it does. And the funny thing is the, the guy picking 1.01, Jeff, he was born in Buffalo. So I have a pretty good inkling who I'm gonna wind up with at number 1.02. So knowing that Drake Maye coming to me, that does push me a little more toward a win in year two or productive struggle pro- probably a win in year two, uh, approach, which is sort of my default I think at startup drafts.
But, um, yeah, when you-- I think you're always gonna game out the first couple of rounds in a, a startup before you actually go on the clock. And, um, a lot of times you get the idea of what you can best build from the draft spot you hold.
Jeff: Yeah. What, uh, you know, just so that our, our audience is really into this, what's kind of the, the distinction here between a year two and a productive struggle? What, what are the players you're picking up in year two that you aren't for productive struggle and the other way around?
Fitz: Yeah, w- year, the year two strategy, you are focusing mostly on the best dynasty values and baking age into, uh, the equation pretty heavily. But I'm willing to take some older vets there, maybe use those guys, um, flip those guys. And I, I suppose you can occasionally in the late rounds take guys like that in productive struggle too.
But mostly in productive struggle, you're focusing on the, uh, 25 and under set. Like, that is your set of, of players and, uh, you, you want the roster to grow together, and maybe it's just like a couple of exceptions to that rule with older vets on a 28 or 30 player roster. But for the most part, you're really dialing in on the, the group of players 25 and younger.
Jeff: Yeah. You know, if you'd had, uh, a more of a middle position in this upcoming draft, uh, so this is now no longer a question of Drake Maye or Josh Allen if your buddy hits the wrong button at 1.01, um, what, what would you be kind of looking for in that middle round? Are you, are you looking for a quarterback?
Are you looking for a... What's the, what's the sort of thing that you're positioned you really wanna hit in that middle round if you had, say, 1.05, 1.06, 1.07, 1.08?
Fitz: Yeah, that, uh, wide receiver or quarterback. And I think for me right now there are maybe five, uh, quarterbacks that I would take in the first round, um, or at least early in the first round. I don't know. I might take Justin Herbert at the end of the first round or something. But, um, Drake Maye, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Caleb Williams.
I think those are the quarterbacks with, who are true first round values. Um, and I think I'd take either of those if they were available at, say, 1.07. And if not, I'm taking Ja'Marr Chase, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Puka Nacua, um, one of the, one of the top wide receivers. The, that's where I wanna go. I'm not going with, uh, Jahmyr Gibbs or, or Bijan Robinson before, like, the very end of the first round.
Jeff: Yeah. And, and so now let's go to the very end of the first round. If those two are there, do you, are you picking between them or are you still sticking to a more of a wide receiver, quarterback build?
Fitz: Yeah, I mean, I'm... I would consider one of those players. Um, you know, early running back in dynasty is generally not something I have done, but if I'm sitting there at 1.12 and, and Bijan or Jahmyr Gibbs are staring me in the face, be pretty hard to turn down either of those players. But then I'm probably, um, I'm considering maybe Justin Herbert or I don't know if I could do Joe Burrow.
Um, Her- Herbert is probably the one guy I'd consider late in the first round at quarterback. Otherwise, I think I might be willing to punt quarterback until the three, four turn and go with a couple of, uh, I don't know, young wide receivers there maybe. Or, or not even young necessarily, but impactful.
Justin Jefferson would be a consideration there. Amon-Ra St. Brown would be a consideration there. Uh, CeeDee Lamb. Maybe if we got any positive news on the Malik Nabers injury, he'd be a guy I'd look at, but for now he's probably a little later in the second round.
Jeff: Uh, do you, do you actually, what position do you really like? Do you prefer to be early? Do you prefer to be late or, or in the middle somewhere?
Fitz: I, I generally like to be in the middle, Jeff, just because it's... At, at 1.02 I'm going to have 20 picks, uh, to wait on after I pick in odd-numbered rounds. And, um, you know, and then sometimes it gets back to you and you have to t- make two rapid fire picks and, uh, you, you might not like the group that's available or it's, things have really flattened out as far as the talent.
There might be about 30 guys you think are roughly equivalent, uh, who are sort of up next in the queue, and all of a sudden you have to take two of them. Um, you know, that's not always a great feeling. So I feel like in the middle you can control positional runs a little bit better and just, um, you know, n- not feel like you're ever reaching for something you need quite as much. I just, I, I like operating out of the middle and never having to wait too long between picks.
Jeff: Yeah, I, I, there's certainly value in the middle. I actually kind of prefer to be on one end or the other. I actually prefer to be late myself because that allows me to, to get a lot of information about the priorities of the other people in my league and where they're taking their first pick. Uh, and then, you know, even like at 1.12, being able to go back to back guarantees whatever my second move's gonna be in any pair of picks I can make because I'm up next.
Uh, and so, you know, like you said, if you've got Gibbs and Robinson both sitting there in a league where I only have to start two wide receivers, I wouldn't... I might be tempted to take both of them at 1.12 and 2.01. Um, same way if there were a couple of really good receivers there. So I kinda like the end, but I, I really understand and get you when you have to sit there, you make your picks, and then an eternity goes by, and everybody you want goes off the board before you get another shot at it.
And yeah, and you are easily at the end of a positional run, rarely starting one, uh, in that sort of position.
But I also tend to look at a draft, you know, kind of through the lens of letting it come to me a- and adapting, which I think is another reason why I like picking later because I can kind of see where this is going.
And sometimes I'll change paths entirely just based on, on what happens. Do you... When you have your plan, your, your year one, year two productive struggle, is, are there times or moments where you, during a draft, are gonna change that direction based on what's going on around you, or do you tend to just stick to that plan from round one through round whatever number there are, 18, 20, 30, whatever it is?
Fitz: I tend to stick to it. Jeff, I, I think you can change it on the fly, um, sort of early on in a startup draft, but I feel like you can only maybe shift one spot on the strategic continuum. Um, like, let's say you decide you are in a win in year one. You wanna win now. Um, and you're five or six rounds into the draft and you notice that almost every team is in win now mode, and people are drafting like it's a redraft league.
Um, at, at that point, m- maybe you don't wanna follow the herd, and you decide you wanna pivot to a win in year two mode. Uh, focus a little more on youth because that's where you're getting discounts in this particular draft. So I think you could do that. It might be hard to abruptly shift from a win in, uh, win now mode to a productive struggle mode 'cause maybe you've already filled your shopping cart with some guys who really fit the win now mode.
Um, so just, it, it would be challenging to abruptly switch from one far end of the continuum to the other, and just y- you don't want... I- if you do that, I think it could result in sort of an incoherent roster.
Jeff: That would be my fear as well. I mean, especially if you are in, you know, a productive struggle mode, you've drafted a couple of really young guys and then suddenly start taking the Davante Adams and George Kittles of the world. You've put yourself in a position where you're probably not winning now and you're definitely not winning later, uh, and that's kind of a hard thing to come out of.
The other way from year one to, to, uh, longer out, I think is based on just value that's there. If everybody's taking the old guys, then I don't think you can do anything but take the younger value that you're getting, uh, from one position to another. Um, do-- As you're looking at the board and you're looking at your strategy, does the, the number of required starting slots for each position affect how you value those positions?
Like if you have to start three wide receivers versus starting two, does that, does that really come into play for you at all when you're looking at the board and making your selections?
Fitz: Definitely. Um, both in redraft and dynasty, I think the number of receivers you're required to start is the most important league setting, and it's gonna drive your approach to the running back and wide receiver positions. And, um, you know, you have to factor in the number of flexes too, and the more flexes, the more it sort of shrinks the difference between a, a three-receiver league and a two-receiver league.
And generally, I don't know, generally I'll, um, dial down the importance of running backs in drafts. Like, at least that's where I tend to cut corners, uh, when I'm doing my startup and, and I'll make sacrifices at running back to build depth at other positions. Uh, but in a league where you're only required to start two wide receivers and there are only one or two flexes, then I think punting running back has less tactical value.
Um, and I, and I'll say this, Jeff, I mean, I, I'm definitely inclined to join leagues that start three wide receivers. That's just the setting I much prefer, and I would much rather play in those leagues than a start two receiver league.
And of course, for quarterbacks, I mean, obviously Superflex versus one QB makes a pretty significant difference in terms of how aggressive you might wanna be at, at that position. Um, y- let's, let's start with Superflex. When do you wanna take your first quarterback in Superflex?
Generally, within the first... I, I start to get sweaty palms if I don't have one with my first two rounds, uh, within the first two rounds, Jeff. And I, I do tend to have an itchy quarterback finger in Superflex startup drafts, I will confess. And, uh, I know sometimes there are strategic advantage to being patient and waiting.
Um, but man, if you wait too long, especially if you are picking at the end, um, picking, you know, first or second or 11th or 12th in a startup draft, like you can... The position can really get away from you if, if you don't have one and all of a sudden there's a big run. And, um, I think the longer you wait sometimes, the less value it, there is at the position.
Like, I don't wanna have to be put in a position where I'm taking Sam Darnold in the fourth round of a super... And I, you know, I think Sam Darnold has become a good quarterback, but I just, uh, there are probably gonna be wide receivers or running backs I would much rather draft in the fourth round than Sam Darnold.
And it seems like sometimes the longer you wait, the less value there is to picking a quarterback, and yet you're gonna have to start taking one 'cause I don't know, Jeff, I like to sleep well at night and, uh, I sleep better I've got, you know, decent, at least decent situations at quarterback in all my Superflex leagues.
Jeff: I am in a league with, uh, nine other, uh, industry sharps, and it's a league where we have to start two and could start four quarterbacks. So, uh, a- and I went through this sort of like, "I need to draft a quarterback, but man, this receiver's huge value right here. I really should do this." And after about four rounds, I have one quarterback, and after six I still have one, and now I am years behind everybody else because it...
getting a quarterback in that league is about impossible. And last year in a, in an opportunity to clinch a playoff spot despite everything else, I had one quarterback who was active, and it was Russell Wilson, and he didn't play.
Fitz: Oh. is this-- It's funny. Is this Dave, is this Dave Kluge's league, Jeff?
Jeff: Dave is, Dave is in this league. Uh, it is not his specific league, but he is in it. Yes. Yeah. It's, uh, Jeff Bell is, uh, Jeff Bell is running
Fitz: It's Jeff Bell's. Okay, I think I just heard, uh, maybe it was JJ. Is JJ Zachariason in this
Jeff: JJ is in
Fitz: Yeah, I just heard him talking about the, the quarterback situation and that, and maybe it was... Is, is Alan Seslowsky in this
Jeff: Alan's in
Fitz: Yeah, okay, they were talking about it on JJ's show. That's what it was. So I'm like, "Wait, I just heard about this league." Yeah, that, that definitely makes it hard to, uh, like you're gonna be all consumed by addressing the quarterback position in a league like that.
Jeff: Yeah. Well, let's, let's go back to more normal, uh, Superflex league. You, you, you got your-- So you got quarterback number one in y- in rounds one or two. When do you like to get quarterback two? And then when do you feel like you now have to have it because you've waited too long?
Fitz: If I have not gotten a quarterback in the first two rounds, I mean, I'm usually just getting them in rounds three and four. And generally I wanna have my second by the end of the fourth round. I'm just, um, again, I admire the people who have the patience to, to wait on it and maybe, uh, they can cut corners at the QB2 spot.
I just don't have that patience. Uh, so yeah, for me it's usually... Typically, on average, I would say I've got like my first quarterback in the first round, my second quarterback in the third round. But usually I've got the first two by the end of round four.
Jeff: It, uh, does the, again, does that, that initial strategy that year one, year two versus productive struggle, does that impact which quarterbacks you are taking or even when you wait on that second quarterback?
Fitz: It, it might a little bit. Um, the age thing will work into that, but again, I'm not, um, vaulting... Since those guys do tend to be the early rounds, and I think it's really beyond the first four or five rounds where the strategy you're following really starts to heavily influence the picks you're making. And I am kind of staying true to a more, let's call it dynasty, dynasty optimal strategy in the first four or five rounds, no matter which strategy I'm playing.
And that usually encompasses the first two quarterbacks I'm drafting. So generally, I'm just going by pure, what I perceive to be the pure dynasty value of each of the quarterbacks. And, um, not, not too much of an adjustment, but maybe I might, um, it might view the way I regard Jared Goff versus Malik Willis, for instance.
Jeff: Uh, let's switch over to one QB leagues for a second because those still exist out there in space. When, when are you looking for your first quarterback there? I assume not round one.
Fitz: No, I'm waiting. Then I'm waiting. It's so, uh, the quarterback market is so different in one QB. Um, and I know like I, when I answer questions on our Discord in Dynasty and I see these one QB and, um, someone's loaded with five really good starting quarterbacks, "I'm trying to trade this guy. What do you think I can get?"
And I hate to say it, but I'm always like, "Not much," because it's a one QB league and supply is always, uh, it always dramatically outpaces demand, and it just crashes the quarterback market in one QB leagues. So, um, I'll wait, and I don't, I don't, I don't care as much because also, uh, the importance of quarterback is diluted because you only have one of them.
And in a typical dynasty league, usually there are nine starting spots at least, so it's, you know, one spot out of nine. And there I don't care if my QB1 is Sam Darnold. I'll roll with that and just, you can probably get Sam Darnold in the 12th round of a one QB startup draft.
Jeff: Uh, just bop back over to Superflex for just one second. Do you-- How many quarterbacks do you like to end up with when your draft is over? And I realize that may be a function of how many bench spots there are. Um, do you-- I'm assuming you want a third one. Do you want a fourth one? Do you pick up a fifth one?
Fitz: Yeah, ideally, um, I've got three who play who are the starters on their teams, even if the third one is maybe kind of a, a fringy guy like Bryce Young, who may or may not have a job a year from now. Um, and then I do, if assuming I've got at least 28 roster spots to play with, I like to have like a, a Joe Milton or Anthony Richardson, some sort of backup quarterback with plausible upside.
Jeff: Are there any other kind of league settings, you know, either the scoring rules or the lineup requirements or the roster size that, that affect your draft strategy?
Fitz: Tight end premium for sure. Um, uh, that's probably the biggest one I can think of, Jeff. Uh, I haven't, I haven't personally played in any point per carry leagues, but I, I know they exist and that would absolutely affect my willingness to take running backs in any given round. Um, I guess that's one of the great things about fantasy football, that there's so many variations, uh, with league settings and rules.
I mean, look at what Scott Fish does every year with the Scott Fish Bowl. I mean, I know you just had your draft in, in Denver. Yeah, and, um, Scott Fish alone has invented like half a dozen scoring rules. And, uh, I, I know there are always... Well, I know there are a lot of commissioners who like to add their own wrinkles, and it's always worth thinking through those wrinkles and, and trying to determine what sort of, uh, players these weird settings might help or hurt.
Tight end premium is the one, and, um, I don't know about you, Jeff, but like... So I'll use the Scott Fish Bowl as an example. Um, Scott Fish loves tight ends, and tight ends always have outsized value with the scoring settings in his, uh, in his league, the Scott Fish Bowl. So, um, a lot of times that gives people the mindset that they are going to lean into that and they are going to, um, draft tight ends early and often.
And I think sometimes with tight end premium, people take it to an extreme and they overvalue tight ends as a result, and I will actually be more inclined to punt tight end in a tight end premium league because all the tight ends, uh, being overdrafted gives you all these buying values on running backs, wide receivers, quarterbacks.
And part of it is that I think people just look at the settings. Like a tight end premium league, which is typical one and a half, uh, one and a half points for a tight end reception instead of one. And I think people too often just tend to think, "Okay, tight ends are one and a half times more valuable."
That's not how the math works with tight end premium, because you are rewarding only one of the... Y- you're giving a bonus to only one of the three ways a tight end accrues fantasy points. There are, you know, there's yardage, there are touchdowns, and there are catches. Catches are the only thing getting a boost.
So I actually went back and did the math on this, like, for a tight end redraft article I was doing for our draft kit a couple years ago, and just punched it in. And, like, Brock Bowers in his rookie year when he had over 100 catches, um, tight end premium boosted his value by about 21%. So he was basically 1.2 times as valuable as he would've been in a, a regular tight end league.
And for a guy like Mark Andrews, whose value was more derived from touchdowns than from catches, I think he was 14% more valuable in tight end premium, so like just 1.14 times as valuable. Not one and a half times as valuable. And people tend to draft as if they are truly one and a half times as valuable.
That's why sometimes I'll punt tight end in tight end premium and just cut corners there and scoop up value at other positions.
Jeff: Really glad to hear you say that because that has been my view for a long time is that tight end premium is often a red herring because so what? You get an extra half point for the two receptions your tight end just picked up. That gives you a whole point. Congratulations. Uh, u- unless you're talking the elite guys like a Brock Bowers, like a Trey McBride last year, who are just racking up receptions, uh, and volume that way, it doesn't make enough of a difference for me to wanna take, uh, particularly l- the second or third tier tight end in an early round versus, you know, a wide receiver, uh, or another quar- second quarterback or something like that that's gonna offer me more value, more durable value, I think, over that amount of time.
Now, with Scott Fish Bowl, however, the premium was significant. It's one point for a reception over what you would be getting, a one point for a first down over what you're getting, and you still get the premium, the bonuses for 20-yard receptions. So I found that I was valuing tight ends quite a bit, but I was not valuing the most.
Uh, one of the guys that I've met there a few years ago, I've been with him for a few years. He's in a couple of leagues of mine. His name's Greg Quirk. He drafted nine straight tight ends from round one through round nine, uh, which changed the value of them all over the rest of the board. And so I've got that on one side.
On the other side of me, I've got Dave Kluge drafting nine wide receivers in a row. So as you might guess, I wound up with a bunch of running backs. It's, it's really tough when that's going on around you, but it, it is neat to see though. But I love the way Scott does
Fitz: Yes. Yes
Jeff: and the scoring.
Uh, when you're talking though, just veer off for just a second. If you're a commissioner and you're thinking about a, a dynasty startup, that's really the time that you wanna think through what you want your, your quirky rules to be because to implement them later does a tremendous disservice to the people in the league because they drafted based on a certain rule understanding.
To suddenly add a tight end premium in year three, uh, to me is just not the way to go in dynasty. If you have it, have it at the beginning and then keep it. Uh, you don't, you don't add it later and you don't drop it later.
Fitz: Yes, absolutely.
Jeff: Well, let's, uh, let's go to the positions here. And since we, we were talking tight end and we were talking tight end premium, you know, is there, is there a point at, at which you either just ignore it completely or you say, "Okay, if I don't get one of these guys," then I, I think you said you're punting until quite a bit later down in the draft.
And where would you, where'd you wanna pick that position back up?
Fitz: Yeah, there is. And, and punting is less attractive now at tight end just because there are so many... I can't remember a time, Jeff, when there were more teams that had a tight end as the guy who could conceivably be the number one target earner on his team. I think I was trying to take inventory of this in my head the other day.
I think it's basically a quarter of the league. Um, certainly Bowers, McBride, Loveland, uh, Tucker, Tucker Kraft, Warren, um,
Jeff: Uh, even with Diggs, even with, uh, uh, not Diggs, but, um, AJ Brown.
Fitz: He's gonna be up there. E- Greg Dulcich for Miami. Um, yeah. So there, there are a lot of teams where you could have the tight end be a prolific producer. So punting is a little less attractive. Travis Kelce still could be a guy like that. And maybe, I mean, he and George Kittle are great targets if you're in win now mode.
Maybe Kittle less so 'cause he could miss some time early in the season. But Kelce, I mean, that would be a guy I would be circling in my, uh, in my queue. So yeah, it, it definitely matters. I think punting is a little less attractive than it has been, but, uh, I do still think there are values. There's also maybe some ad- advantage to wading into some of the ambiguous tight end situations like the Rams, who have all these guys.
Yeah, I mean, it's like they've got a mess, uh, at tight end, and yet their tight ends combined for 17 touchdowns last year and over 100 catches. So if you can pick the right one or ones, uh, there could be value to that.
Jeff: Yeah, I don't know that we've ever seen a 0-5 personnel formation in the NFL, but if we haven't, we're gonna see one this year from Sean McVay. I'm pr- I can just feel it coming.
Fitz: It's like the Scott Fish Bowl in real life.
Jeff: Exactly. Well, let's, uh, let's swing over to, to running backs for a minute, and we've not really talked much about them, 'cause I think both you and I tend to not wanna go heavily into those in, in dynasty. Uh, find better value in the other positions, certainly longer term. But with running backs, are you, are you drafting more for talent or are you drafting more for opportunity, uh, when it comes to what you're thinking that these guys are gonna have in front of them for the next one to, say, five years?
Fitz: The talent versus opportunity thing is really interesting because I generally think that talent matters way more at wide receiver than it does at running back. Um, part of that is because if a, a wide receiver gets hurt or gets traded or just suddenly loses effectiveness, um, any vacated targets are sort of scattered.
They go to, to multiple different other pass catchers. Um, if a running back gets hurt or traded or, uh, just suddenly loses it, his vacated touches often go to mostly one guy. So opportunity I think matters far more at running back than it does at wide receiver. But opportunity also makes players expensive in dynasty.
Like the players who have it are, are treated as such in startup drafts. Um, so in startups, I, I sometimes like to target the talented guys whose price is being held back by a lack of immediate opportunity. Um, just sort of buy low on the talented running backs and hope the opportunity materializes.
Jeff: Yeah. It's, uh, uh, it, it's interesting to me because, you know, we, we have that, that, the need to have multiple running backs on because at any point somebody is going to get that opportunity. I mean, I don't know that any of us really thought that Bill Croskey-Merritt would, for at least a time, be Washington's number one running back last season, uh, until he was.
Now of course that, that running back room is again a mess and we're not sure what's gonna happen. How do you go about picking those kind of murkier... I mean, first of all, do you try to go to some of these murkier situations in dynasty startups? And if so, how are you picking the horse? Is it the talent in that particular case that, that wins out over some of the other considerations?
Fitz: It's the talent, and I will also, um, put my thumb on the scale for guys who catch passes. So, um, y- the only thing about guys like, um, you know, Croskey-Merritt, um, trying to think of some other examples here. Guys like i- in the Jacksonville backfield with Chris Rodriguez. Like, if there's not much pass-catching upside, that...
Because dynasty leagues are generally full PPR and, and some half PPR, but there's usually at least some sort of PPR component. I don't know of many standard scoring dynasty leagues. So I, I do wanna lean towards the pass catchers there. But, um, yeah, uh, otherwise it's just, it varies by backfield. I know I definitely have my favorites in some of the murkier backfields, and some guys I'm less likely to draft.
Jeff: Let's move over to wide receivers for a moment. Uh, just based on what we've been talking about so far, I think your stance is you should be fairly aggressive with them. So how many wide receivers do you really wanna come out of the first, say, three or four rounds with? A- and we can start with Superflex first.
Like, that's where most formats are these days, and we can hit one QB here in a second if we want to. But what's your, what's kind of your, your quarterback wide receiver combos that you want in those first few rounds numbers-wise?
Fitz: Yeah, in the first three rounds, um, again, I'd say more often than not I usually just, uh, give in to my QB anxieties and, and take two quarterbacks within the first three. And then I want, I usually want the other, the other non-quarterback to be a wide receiver. Um, and if I maybe only take one quarterback in the first three rounds, then I am probably not gonna take a running back and, and my other two guys are gonna be exclusively wide receivers or tight ends named Brock Bowers or Colston Loveland.
Jeff: When do you really prefer to take that first tight end? Now, I m- obviously Bowers, McBride, Loveland are guys you have to take in the first two or three rounds or you're not gonna get to them. W- when do you, when do you want your first one and when are you willing to take your first one?
Fitz: When do I want my first one? I mean, I think it would be ideally fifth round or beyond. And, um, I've been thinking about that, like which tight ends might be in the sweet spot of this upcoming draft I'm doing. And I feel like, um, in terms of the combination of age, potential, and where they're gonna be drafted, I feel like Tucker Kraft might be in my sweet spot because I think I might be able to get him in like the, uh, early fifth maybe.
But I don't know. I'm also drafting with a lot of Green Bay Packers fans, so maybe that's not a realistic goal. Um, yeah, I, but I... Who knows, Jeff? I could totally give in to... I could see myself, like, just taking Colston Loveland at 3.02 or 2.11 if he's there, so.
Jeff: Does, uh, does having the quarterback, uh, already on that roster for you matter? Like, if you got Caleb Williams in the first round, would you be looking to pick up Loveland in the third?
Fitz: I might, I might. That would be a little more attractive. Um, you know what I mean? I think the handcuffing, or, or not handcuffing, um, y- stacking thing is always a little more... Like, it's especially important in best balls with the contests at the end of the season, and you want that force multiplier in the, the playoff rounds to have a chance to, uh, you know, hit that magical game that wins you a lot of money, where a, a quarterback and a pass catcher just totally click.
Um, it's in... I don't mind shooting for that occasionally in a dynasty startup, but I'm not gonna go over my skis in drafting a certain player to stack necessarily. I can always get the stack later through a trade if I really want it.
Jeff: Uh, is that, would that be a tiebreaker perhaps for you, or is that just really not something you think
Fitz: No, that's a, that's a good way to look at it, Jeff, as kind of a tiebreaker. I don't wanna, I don't wanna vault stack priorities, uh, much higher than tiebreaker level.
Jeff: Yeah. If we're talking about a group of players, and it can be any position or it can be multiple positions in the same, same tier, what, what are your tiebreakers? Like, how are you picking which of these three or four or six guys that you've got your eyes on in a particular round? What's, what's making that choice for you?
Or how are you eliminating guys, or how are you saying, "No, this is the one I want here"?
Fitz: It might come down to just me liking a certain guy and believing in a certain guy more so than the others. Um, it could also be trying to project where, what positions the values... Where the value might lie in subsequent rounds, I guess is the best way to say it. If I think, "Okay, I, I kinda need a running back here.
I might like this wide receiver a bit, a little bit more, but if I don't get this running back, th- the drop off to the next tier is, you know, the, the Marianas Trench, and I don't wanna, like, have to... I don't wanna have to go and see what sort of marine life is down there in the next couple of rounds. So I better just take the running back even though I like this wide receiver more."
Jeff: I'm gonna take that running back in round five because otherwise I won't take one until round 12, and that's not gonna do me.
Fitz: Exactly. Exactly.
Jeff: Well, let's look again back kind of at your three paths for a second, the win now path, the year two path, and the productive struggle path. Do, do, do you wanna come out of the first, say, three or four or five rounds with a similar kind of look at positions?
I know you said you kind of stick to a dynasty value standpoint early and then kind of break from there. But do those different strategies have a different kind of set of cast of characters that you want in those first, you know, three or four or five rounds?
Fitz: Probably the biggest one, Jeff, for, for me it's typically in most dynasty startups it's gonna be, um, if it's Superflex, one or two quarterbacks and the rest wide receivers and tight end. But if I'm in win now mode, I might wanna mix a, a running back into the first four rounds.
Jeff: Yeah, Derrick Henry kinda type who is a, you know, potential league winner if he can continue to beat Father Time.
Fitz: Yeah, I mean, I might, I might hope to get Henry a little lower than that in a startup, but maybe someone, um, I'm trying to think. Where I just sort of pay the price, even if it's a, a sort of a younger back who everyone sort of likes. Um, I might be more willing to take an Omarion Hampton early in a league like that, even though he's a young guy and, and win now generally means veterans.
But, um, certainly Jonathan Taylor and,
Jeff: Oh, yeah. Good one.
Fitz: yeah, he's like a, a perfect fit as far as that sort of thing. Like I'm probably, even though I'm a University of Wisconsin graduate, I'm probably not taking Jonathan Taylor in the first four rounds of, um, uh, most startups just because of the way I like to build my team.
But if I'm in win now mode, that's when Jonathan Taylor gets real sexy to me in the early rounds.
Jeff: There we go. Uh, let's shift our, our focus here for a second from just the, the draft itself to trading during startup drafts. And now not all leagues allow this, so this, this may be a little bit of a coming attraction feature for those of you who are thinking about a dynasty startup league. But I've also been in a number of startups where there are dozens of startup draft day trades.
Uh, what is your thought on those? Do you like them? Do you not like them? Do you tend to do them or, or do you tend to just I'm picking here and that's where I'm picking?
Fitz: Oh, I like them, Jeff, and I would urge commissioners everywhere, uh, in dynasty leagues w- who are planning dynasty leagues, uh, startup drafts, allow for trading because it makes it so much more fun. And it's a great tool for everyone, uh, in a dynasty draft. Um, i- if you don't like the options at a given spot, trade out.
And, um, if there's a player you know is gonna come off the board in the next two or three picks, and it's 10 picks before you're up, try to trade up with whoever's on the clock. Uh, like, it's a great way to get what you want and avoid taking players you don't want in dynasty drafts. And I think it's an especially important tool for people who are on the ends of dynasty drafts, picking in those first two or three spots, uh, early on or at the tail end of drafts, because you do have those long waits in between picks and, uh, you know, there might be someone you really covet and know that you have zero chance of getting them if you stand, uh, stick with your draft position.
Jeff: how do you go about those, making those trades? Is this... I, I assume you're fairly aggressive in making offers either to go up or down, or do you wait for this to, to kind of come to you?
Fitz: Yeah, I mean, I, I feel like there's a pretty basic structure for a trade up. When someone is trying to, to trade up to get into a spot to take a certain player, and that person is gonna get the, the highest pick that's being traded. The player who is giving them that pick is going to get two picks in the next couple of rounds.
And, uh, in addition to that pick that's on the clock right now, that person's also gonna get, like, the last round pick of, of the person making the deal. So basically you're, um... It, it might be I'm giving you my 10th round pick, you're gonna give me your, uh, 11 and 12. I'm getting your 10th and your 28th, and I want your 11th and 13th.
Something like that. That's the basic framework for that deal, and you just kinda calibrate it depending on where you are in the draft and, and what pick is, uh, being haggled for.
Jeff: What, uh, what are you willing to offer? A- and, you know, I'm being very specific here in terms of I would offer the, you know, third round pick, but what are the, what are the kinds of calculations you make in deciding what to offer to move up to get somebody?
Fitz: Yeah, that's kind of it. Um, just looking at ADP and trying to get an idea of what players are likely to be around at any given spot and that's a pretty good way to calibrate what you think should be compensation to move up or what you should be asking for to move down and let someone else have the, the pick that you're on the clock with.
So that's probably the best way because just looking at the round numbers or, you know, using your own type of Jimmy Johnson type trade value chart for picks, it's better to just, um, look at dynasty ADP, figure out, you know, what you're, what you're giving up, what you would be getting with the multiple picks you're being offered in exchange for the pick you're giving up now plus, um, you know, some late round pick that you're throwing in and, uh, try to figure out if that value is somewhat balanced.
Jeff: I love that you used, you know, look at the ADP there in making those decisions. 'Cause to me, that is one of the few really good uses of ADP is to sort of look up, look down the board a bit and get a sense of when players might be available, especially if we're talking about a longer tier of players where you'd be basically content with any of these 10 guys moving down eight or nine slots, uh, keeps you in that boat, but moving down 12 does not.
And, and but you get a sense though of who might be available 12 slots down if you wanted to do that and pick up a, a higher next pick after that as well. Um, but when you trade up though, you're looking to get that specific player. You're, you're, you're targeting the guy that's on the clock. You're not looking to trade up two or three picks beyond the clock right now, right?
You're, you're going after the guy on the clock.
Fitz: Right. Yeah. And I, it's, it's always the guy on the clock. I don't want to, um, you know, m- maybe, maybe I might trade into a spot, uh, with the person who's on deck or on double deck if there's a tier, and I would be happy with either of these two players or any three of these three players. Um, then maybe I'd be willing to, to not trade for the pick on the clock and be happy to take whatever's behind the player, right behind the player on the...
or the manager on the clock. So, but for the most part, it's usually, you know, as soon as someone goes on the clock, like, I want this player. I'm probably not even sending it via the, uh, league platform. I'm probably texting that person like, "Hey, hold on. Don't make this pick. I'm gonna send you an offer."
Jeff: Uh, is, does the, the strategy that you have, does the win now or year two versus productive struggle, does that impact your willingness to move up?
Fitz: Um, I don't know. I think I'm, I think no matter the strategy, I'm always happy to make a trade if I get into those spots where I really feel like I want this player or that player, or I really don't like the value of picking here and I think I could just... I'd be better off trading down and adding a couple of picks in the next few rounds rather than making this pick here.
Jeff: Yeah, I know in the experience I've had in leagues, even with folks who are, are, are fairly sophisticated players, their tendency is to just look to trade up to get a specific player. Uh, what, what's kind of your, your case for trading down and being willing to do that, uh, in, in a startup draft?
Fitz: Yeah. Uh, well, usually someone is willing to, to pay up if they like a particular player, and if they are, um, y- you can tell when someone really wants a player and they contact you about one of these trades, and you're like, "Oh, that's interesting, because I'm not really dying to pick anyone in this spot." So yeah, this is a good spot to trade down.
Um, I, I see things being really flat. That, that's the appeal, I think, Jeff. That's when you wanna trade down, is when you think you're in a flat part of the draft where they're... the next 30 players you think are all pretty similar. And rather than, uh, you know, with my next, in the next two or three rounds getting two or three of these 30 players, I can pick up another pick in this round, and I don't care about getting the top of these 30 players.
I wanna get four of the top, of these 30 players instead of two or three. That's the advantage, I think, to trading down.
Jeff: Yeah, I- I've said before, I think that when you, when you're certainty comes at a premium. So if you wanna trade up and get the specific guy when you're on the clock, that's gonna cost. Uh, but if you are flexible, you get the value for that specifically from the guys who are looking at, they have got it, they're in love with one player that's still on the board, and they're willing to pay for it.
Uh, what are you, what are you really looking for? I mean, uh, uh, you said a sense of it there. If there's 30 players coming up, I want four of them instead of two of them. So kinda what is your... Let's say we're in round three, which, which two or three rounds are you looking to improve your position in to give up a, a third-round pick, let's say?
Fitz: Yeah. If I'm in, just hypothetically, um, you know, I would certainly want your fourth and, uh, you know, maybe I want your fourth and your sixth for my third and my 15th, or third and, you know, 12th. But I, I definitely wanna extract some value in those next couple of rounds. Um, so yeah, again, I mean, I'd have to study the ADP a little bit to see what is the appropriate offer.
And, uh, you know, with these picks, like I'm not trying to, to hold anyone's feet to the fire or really, you know, win this deal. I'm, I'm looking for it to be a reasonably fair value. I try to be a fair dynasty dealer and, um, you know, do something that is gonna help me without insulting the person I'm negotiating with.
Jeff: Yeah, I'm a, I'm a believer that there's only one answer to the question who won this trade, and that is both. Both parties got, got the value that they were, that they were looking for. Uh, I don't know if you're in any leagues that do this. I've on- only been in one at this point in my, my career that allowed future pick trading in a startup draft as well.
Is that something that you would, would pursue if it were available? Would you recommend it or would you say, "No, I just really wanna keep it focused on, on this draft right in front of me"?
Fitz: Yeah, that's a good question. Um, and I should probably ask our, our commissioner if he's got a rule set in place for that. Um, uh, I know some people would find it restrictive if you weren't allowed to do that sort of thing, but, um, you know, especially if there are any first timers in the league, it might be good to, to tamp down that sort of thing.
Or at least, at the very least, Jeff, um, have people pay a couple years in advance. Like, if, if we're gonna allow trades, you have to set a certain number of years in the future you're allowed to do it, and I think you should make everyone pay for that number of years before, um, you know. No one should be allowed to, to make trades involving 2028 picks unless they're paid through...
If you're, if you're dealing away your 2028 draft pick, you should probably be paid up through 2028.
Jeff: if you are in a productive struggle mode and that's what you wanna do for this draft, you know, would you find future draft picks even more attractive than swapping positions in this current draft?
You just wanna trade out of the startup draft altogether in a couple of rounds?
Fitz: Yeah, that might be, es- especially with the, uh, the mother lode coming in in 2027, Jeff. So y- yes, that's a good time to ask this question because, uh, I'm always-- I'm very interested in acquiring 2027, uh, first and second round draft picks.
Jeff: In looking toward the future, if you are in a, a dynasty startup, you've got one coming up, do you prefer the rookie class to be in the player pool initially,
Fitz: I think my preferred method would be to have the rookies available in the startup draft, which is what, uh, my friend, the commissioner, is doing with this draft I'm about to be in. Um, but one very fun variation of that, um, with the Kings Classic Dynasty draft that I'm in, and, uh, Dyn- Dynasty Rich, um, I'm at the moment blanking on Rich's last name, which I feel bad about.
But, uh, he set the rule as being you could draft spots in the rookie draft for that year. So, um, and I was kind of in a productive struggle mode in that, so I drafted a lot of rookie draft spots. Basically, you could use your pick on your pick in the startup draft on a rookie pick with the rookie draft to be held after the startup draft.
So basically, every round of the rookie draft had different people in different slots, and some people didn't have a, their first pick until the third round, and some people had three picks in the first round. And, uh, it was kind of a lot of fun to do it that way, and it's an interesting wrinkle to a startup draft.
Jeff: I, I love that rule actually myself. That's kind of my preferred way to do that, is to handle the rookie separately and let's just let the value be there. Uh, the first person who chooses a rookie pick in their, as in, in their draft gets the 1.01 and so on. We just had one of those l- uh, earlier this year for me and, uh, I did not end up with a single 2026 pick out of that draft.
I found better value on the board with just the existing players. Well, the h- the picks were going too early in my, my estimation. I mean, the, the first round picks were going about two rounds ahead of where I would've paid for them, so that continued all the way down the board. 2027, different story. Uh, I might be much more willing to, uh, to take some draft picks earlier i-i-in, in that one.
Uh, well, let's, uh, this has been a, a lot of fun, but let's, let's, uh, let's kind of pull back for just a second and say, uh, uh, for just sort of overarching advice. I mean, do you have a golden rule for, for startups? Something that you do or, or want to try to do every draft that you're in?
Fitz: I think it's as simple as drafting players I like. Draft players you like, um, draft players you're excited about, draft players you have enthusiasm for because you are tethered to these guys. I mean, you're not tethered to them over the long haul because we can always trade and, you know, ideally there are a lot of trades in a dynasty league.
But I'm generally not drafting guys I don't really like or don't really believe in or know that I don't like as much as the market. Like I'm, I'm just not as into Rashee Rice as some other people are. Um, uh, and it's not just the off-field stuff. I, I think maybe what he does on the field is maybe a little more fragile than, um, for more traditionally skilled, uh, star wide receivers.
I, I don't... I'm, I'm not as enthusiastic about Jadarian Price's NFL outlook as some other people are, and I could totally be wrong about that, but, um, I'm, I'm not gonna force it. Whereas in redraft, Jeff, I'm in, uh, way too many redraft leagues, and sometimes I will intentionally draft a player I'm, I've declared myself to be out on just in case I'm wrong.
And you know, I, I know that I'm wrong on a lot of things. Sometimes in redraft I will c- try to cover my tracks with a player. I won't do that in a dynasty startup.
Jeff: I'm with you there. Uh, a- and I do believe too, I mean, you've hit on, you've hit on one of the golden rules for me, of just get your guys. I mean, just get your guys. And that to me is another reason to tear up ADP and throw it away, because I see folks either not wanting to get their guy because they think that it's a, it's a reach, or being criticized for it the same way.
And especially if, as you know, if you're on the ends of the drafts, you're the first two or fir- last two picks, that guy's not gonna be around 20 picks later. If you have to reach, reach. Just get your guy, uh, because you said you're, you're, you're tethered to him for, uh, as long as you want to be, and hopefully that is for right up until about the year before his production crashes when you trade him for a, a younger, younger, handsomer, faster, uh, model of, of what you.
Fitz: Yeah. I'm much more into the get your guys strategy in, in dynasty startups than in redraft drafts.
Jeff: Uh, I mean, I've heard from a number of dynasty managers, and especially those that are, who are just starting out in this format, and I think we see this too in redraft. They just feel like they're guessing in the middle rounds, that they've sort of hit this bank of 60 to 90 players that are all sort of indistinguishable value-wise to them.
So what would be kind of your advice to startup drafters on what to do with rounds seven through 10? Who are they looking for? Who should they be trying to avoid? And, and what, what's sort of the strategy for those rounds?
Fitz: I think those are the rounds, Jeff, where you should bear down and follow whatever strategy you have chosen. Like, the picks in those rounds I think should fit your strategy, and that's where if you are in win now mode, that's where you are looking for values on veterans who, um, are going to pro- outproduce presumably in 2026 the young players who are available in the same part of the draft.
And if you're in productive struggle mode, forget about those veterans. Uh, you're looking for those young players who haven't popped yet and, uh, you know, have a chance to pop, haven't done it, so they're, they're relatively cheap for now, but you're looking for the under 25 set. So I think those middle rounds are where you sort of, um, have to adhere to your draft strategy, your predetermined draft strategy.
Jeff: And then what's, what's your, your take on the later rounds? And of course, later rounds in dynasty could be anywhere from rounds 12 to 18 to 24 to 30, depending on what we're talking about in terms of, of bench size. What's kind of your... I mean, are you looking for upside? Are you taking chances here? Are you, are you taking bets on backfields where there, there may be some, some ambiguity?
What are you really looking for in those, those later rounds?
Fitz: 12 to 18, I think that's kind of the same thing where you're adhering to, um, the strategy and sort of trying to follow it to, to have a coherent roster. At the end of, uh, drafts, I think even if I'm in win now mode, sometimes I'm trying to throw darts with young players who could possibly hit, hit big. Um, or just, uh, I do tend to skew very young in the, the late rounds.
Um, but you know, win now if there is maybe a useful piece, like maybe there's some, uh, I'm trying to think of who would be a good example of someone like an older player who might have... Like Jo- Juwan Johnson might be like, "Oh, I don't really have a backup tight end I can count on. This guy I think is, uh," I think Juwan Johnson is 30 or older.
Um, and here he is sitting in, in the 26th round of my startup draft. Like, I could actually use a guy like this. He might have immediate utility for me. Um, I, so I tend to skew young in the later rounds, but I might be looking to patch a hole with an older vet.
Jeff: What mistakes do you see dynasty managers making in their startup drafts?
Fitz: Incoherent draft strategy is, is number one. Like, th- that's the biggest mistake when you, um, are just toggling between... You're just picking players without regard to, like, a certain build and so it's a weird mix of, of young players and old. And I know you can always turn old players into young and vice versa via trades, but, um, you could also be doing it in a way where you're sort of costing yourself value in the startup draft.
So, um, you know, and, uh, other than that, uh, the misevaluation of players. Um, but we see that in every form of draft, whether it's dynasty or redraft, and the misevaluation of players can take a thousand different forms.
Jeff: how do you-- If you see someone making these kinds of mistakes, I mean, how do you choose to capitalize on that as a savvier drafter?
Fitz: Yeah, uh, I don't know if you can capitalize on the mistake of an incoherent roster build. Um, I don't know if there's a way to take advantage of that. I think that's just someone sort of, um, you know, putting themselves at a disadvantage. But with the misevaluation of players, like that is the m- sort of mistake you can capitalize on because it's producing value, uh, at, at other spots.
One player gets overdrafted, someone is gonna be underdrafted, and you're just, uh, take advantage of the falling value.
Jeff: If we were talking to commissioners for just a moment, is there, is there any rule that you would recommend they implement for the next startup league they create? And it could be draft related, which is what we've been talking about, but it could just be something else. I mean, is there, are there rules or a rule that you really like that if you, if you were gonna start your, do your startup draft now, your startup league, you would have this rule in place?
Fitz: Number one, play Superflex. Don't play one QB. Superflex leagues to me, Jeff, are just 10 times more interesting, and especially since the only draft, drafts you are going to do after the startup every year are those rookie drafts. Rookie drafts are infinitely more interesting when quarterbacks are involved than when it's one QB.
Um, and I think we'll especially see that next year with what looks to be a pretty good quarterback class, um, that's gonna add just way more variety to rookie drafts and, and, you know, make them better and more fun. Um, and number two, the other thing, and here's a, a little quirky rule that maybe not a lot of dynasty leagues have, but I think is interesting, um, that every two years we change divisions in the, the one dynasty league I am the commissioner of.
We have a random, a random, you know, 100-yard rush I think we've been using for where you have the racers and like, okay, the first four finishers are one division, next four are the second, final four are the third. Because if you get into a division, uh, with a, you know, the, the 300-pound gorilla in your league, the team that's just got an unbeatable dynasty, and you are looking at the prospect of having to contend with that team in your division, who maybe you play an extra game against every year for the next three years, like that, that can kinda stink.
And, uh, mixing up the divisions a little, I mean, it adds to the... It makes things a little spicier, and you're playing in different, a division with different people, different friends, um, and it makes it a little more fair if you happen to be the one stuck in a, a division full of win now teams, and you're just buried.
Jeff: If, if you're in the, uh, NHL Central Division and you're looking up at three Cup contenders year after year, I, I could see where that would be.
Fitz: Yeah, the, the Raiders. You don't wanna be the Raiders having to deal with the, the Chargers, Broncos, and Chiefs every year.
Jeff: Or Arizona having to deal with Seattle, San Francisco, the Rams every year. Uh, I tell you one that I-- There's a couple that I really like. One on the scoring side I like. I now have con- convinced myself, Jeff Bell has convinced me, others have convinced me that half PPR plus half point per first down is the way to go in terms of, of kind of rebalancing the positions a little bit, making the running back position a little bit more valuable, uh, so that folks like, say, a Rachaad White who falls forward for one yard and gets a first down gets some credit for that because he moved the chains, uh, as opposed to someone catching a ball and going nowhere, which does not move the chains.
So that's one. Another that I like, and I've used it in just about every league that I've started in the last few years, uh, on the dynasty side, a-and I probably would do this on redraft too, I just haven't started one of those in a long time, is y- the, the initial draft positions, instead of just drawing for those straight up, draw for the choice of position, so that if you win that initial lottery, you don't get 1.01 unless you want 1.01.
You might want 1.12 or 1.05 or 1.08, uh, and go in that order so that you-- people are actually strategically thinking about where they wanna draft as opposed to just here's your draft position. So that to me is a really kind of fun wrinkle. It does add some administrative complexity and a little time, uh, but I think it's a lot of fun to, to do that as well.
Fitz: I like that Kentucky Derby style. I'm, I'm in a few redraft leagues that do that, and I, I like the way that goes.
Jeff: Well, Fitz, this has been a lot of fun. Of course, you and I got to hang out a little bit in Canton last year. I don't think I'm gonna make it this year, but maybe, maybe I will end up there. We'll, we'll see how that goes. Um, but it was a real pleasure getting to meet you last year, and it's been a lot of fun talking to you here today.
Uh, before we go, uh, let's let everyone know what you're up to and where they can find you and your great work.
Fitz: Yeah, thank you so much for having me, Jeff. This has been a lot of fun and hopefully, uh, your plans change and you can figure out a way to get to Canton this year, 'cause it would be great to, to see each other in person again. Um, but yeah, thank you for having me, and, uh, people can find me on Twitter at Fitz underscore FF and find all my stuff at fantasypros.com.
And we've got the, uh, FantasyPros Dynasty podcast that goes weekly, uh, throughout the off-season up till the regular season. And then we get a little, uh, a little hung up with our, our redraft shows and, or our, you know, our weekly shows. Dynasty takes a little hiatus, but then we're always back as soon as the regular season ends.
Jeff: All right. Well, thank you so much, Fitz, and thank you for watching or listening, whether you've been on YouTube or one of the other podcast platforms. Uh, please, uh, like and subscribe, help this show grow. If you're over on Apple, one of the best things you can do for us is to, uh, leave a five-star rating and, and drop a really nice review for the show.
That's gonna help us gain some visibility, uh, and, and grow and, and hopefully help even more dynasty managers become better ones. Maybe not necessarily in your leagues, but, uh, but certainly in, in others. Uh, and, uh, uh, we will be back next week with another outstanding guest and another really good set of strategic insights on Dynasty Compass.