Building a League-winning Dynasty WR Room with Jeff Bell

Jeff Bell from Footballguys returns for the show's 50th episode to break down how to build and rebuild a winning dynasty wide receiver room. They cover league-format math; the differences between hero, bully, and zero WR strategies; and what actually makes an ideal WR3. Knowing where the value gaps are lets you build a room that delivers week-winning value. They close by tackling the toughest scenario: a WR room full of "meh" and the biggest mistake managers make trying to fix it.

💡 Key Takeaways

• WR value comes from replaceability, not fragility.
• Hero, bully, and zero WR should be reactions to the draft board, not pre-set plans.
• The WR value cliff means locking in your starters early.
• The ideal WR3 is a market-undervalued player with real WR1 upside.
• Rebuilding a "meh" WR room means embracing risk other managers are avoiding.

⏱️ Chapters

00:00 – The State of the WR Position
06:50 – The WR3 Trap
11:27 – Does League Configuration Change WR Strategy?
18:06 – Bully WR: How You Drive the Draft Board
25:03 – WR Build Strategies Aren't Pre-set Plans 
30:53 – What an Ideal WR Room Looks Like
43:22 – Embracing Volatility Over Floor
51:16 – Rebuilding a WR Room Full of "Meh"
1:00:02 – Fixing a Steep Drop-Off
1:12:04 – Biggest Mistakes and the One Thing to Take Away

🔗 Links Mentioned

• Follow Jeff Bell on Twitter/X 
• Jeff Bell's Dynasty Rankings 
• Jeff Blaylock's Dynasty Rankings 
• Follow Jeff Blaylock on Twitter/X  
• Footballguys  

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Visit dynastycompass.com to learn more about the show. 

Transcript

Bell: there's only so many logs to build the cabin that we're trying to build here, and, and everybody wants them. So, I mean, it, it is playing those tiers and, um, and, and just looking at it in that regard of, of how many is left in the tier? Is it gonna make it to me? Do I need to make a move here?

And yeah, I mean, I could talk myself into Tetairoa McMillan being my WR1, but I also don't know that I'm gonna win any championships anytime soon if Tetairoa McMillan's my WR1 on this roster.

[theme music]

Blaylock: Welcome to Dynasty Compass. I am your host, Jeff Blaylock, the other Jeff B from Footballguys. Thrilled today to be joined by the Jeff B from Footballguys, Jeff Bell, back for your second time here on the show and episode 50 overall. Jeff, welcome back to Dynasty Compass

Bell: And Jeff, you're always way too kind. We're, we're all one J- the Jeff hive. We are, we're all, uh, together there and, and you know, it's great, it was great seeing you in Canton. You were the MVP. You really held down the booth and, um, I know there was one point we realized that Jeff was left alone at the booth and he was manning everything, and we probably shouldn't do that because we all kinda got pulled in different conversations.

But Jeff, it's fantastic to be here, and really thank you so much for the invitation.

Blaylock: Yeah, well, th- thank you. Yeah, it wasn't very long I was alone, only about 100 minutes or so. So it was, it was just fine. Not, not a problem.

Bell: Yeah

Blaylock: Uh, so we're gonna talk about wide receivers today, and, uh, you have been doing a lot of talking about wide receivers and a lot of writing about wide receivers. You've probably written tens of thousands of words about them this year alone.

Um, what's, you know, what's kind of the state of the position right now as, as we look at, as entering the 2026 season?

Bell: Well, so much talk about where we're standing right now, I think is, is less about wide receivers and more about tight ends, more about heavy formation, more about these shifts of what we're seeing across the league to attack. It, it's not so much the cover two shell, but it, it's just the, um, hybrid ability of defenses to shift out of different looks into, and offenses trying to dictate the packages that they're going to see, trying to attack with these heavy sets.

And then I think a lot of that, if you're looking... I, I always think it's so funny when you look at what, the way that the Super Bowl went, because it seems to be whoever won the Super Bowl dictates the entire narrative, even if the other team is a, still a very, very good team and, and built slightly different.

But, uh, you know, with Seattle winning the Super Bowl, obviously the defense was a big factor there, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the big factor there. And so as you're starting to look at these heavy packages, I think, I think it's easy for us to think, well, more tight ends on the field mean more targets for tight ends.

And to some regard, okay. But really why they're trying to get into these heavy packages is because defenses have done such a good job of limiting explosives. And so what you're seeing with the Rams being the, the picture of these two, multiple wide rec- multiple tight end sets, really that was Puka Nacua and Matthew Stafford.

And so having more blockers in there, uh, the ability to generate explosive with Puka Nacua, Seattle Seahawks having more, you know, a- playing AJ Barner, playing more tight end packages, being in a more of a run heavy look, and then leaning hard on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. And so I think that to some regard, you're seeing more Jaxon Smith-Njigba breaking records or coming close on wide receiver target share, those types of things that I think we're getting into this where there's more large men on the field in order to create explosives for the players that we really wanna see the ball getting to.

Blaylock: And then of course, with the more large men on the field, that means some of the other men are not, and so the WR3 is becoming, uh, an endangered species in the NFL. Um, you know, as you're looking at that, do you-- what, what kind of a look into your crystal ball and said, "Is there a future at all for the WR3, the 11 personnel in the NFL?"

At least for the next year or two. It's a copycat league. We may all be back at 11 personnel in two years, but right now, heavy personnel are dominant.

Bell: I, I mean, I'm somebody that I didn't ever wanna draft the WR3 in an offense anyways. And so it's kinda, uh, it's a good point that you bring up, but I think it's an interesting conversation because it's like outside of like, uh, there's the Brandon Stokley year with the Colts, or there's, uh, the year with the Broncos when they had Wes Welker and, and Decker and Demaryius Thomas.

We can name, like, on one hand where we felt good about having three wide receivers within an offense. And to some regard it's, it's less that. And two, maybe some people needed help to not have the WR3 in their offense on their fantasy teams because I, I don't think that's good team construction and building that, that way to have that player that's gonna be lower there.

It really comes down to probably narrowing those targets and then seeing involvement for tight end, seeing involvement for running backs in the passing game. To some regard, it's-- I th- I think we are in a spot... It, it was a long time ago that Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski broke out that one year for the Patriots.

And so this idea of having multiple tight ends, it sounds great on paper. It sounds great when you're putting together. And then, but then you get into camp and you realize your WR3 is worlds better than your TE2. And so I think it is a little bit overblown on the heavy sets and, uh, even the Rams on them doing it.

I think when you break it down, the games that they went, they kind of were dominating those games already. And so it's like if they're already blowing teams out and, and running it down their throat and then able to throw out of that formation, yeah, that's gonna work great, uh, more often than not. But I think that, um, overall, I'm hesitant to say the WR3 is gonna disappear within an offensive scheme.

I still think that even for all the talk on two tight end sets, you still probably saw more f- formations in 11 personnel than any- anything else that you saw

Blaylock: think that, that is still the case. It's just no longer, I think, the majority formation, but still very much a, a plurality kind of formation. But to me, where it comes in, and I, I love that you said you don't really like to draft a team's WR3 already. And I think for some of us who look at it, that that is kind of a, you know, a low but safe floor kind of position to hold on your bench so that when all of your starters are on bye and hurt, you've got, you know, some relatively guaranteed production, a guy who can step up.

But it kind of looks like that that, that assumption's gone, that the, the floor now for that WR3 might actually be zero. They're-- If they're out there at all, they're blocking or they're running cardio, and then sometimes they are still involved in the offense in 11 personnel. Is, is that kind of a thought that you're also having as you're looking out across the wide receiver landscape and thinking about, "If I'm gonna build a wide receiver room, I need to make sure that it doesn't have WR3s in it"?

Bell: Well, I do think that that's a trap to some regard of what you'll see on, um, I mean, I think the, the unflattering term that gets thrown about so often is roster clogger. But really looking at it as, uh, g- it can be a trap because I think that when you're building this out, especially when you're in half PPR, full PPR formats, and you've got three wide receivers starting, I think ideally the way that I wanna build it out is really not have s- more than six or seven wide receivers on my roster, and then just be able to lean into ideally a bench full of running backs.

Now, a lot of people wanna build that way, which makes it harder to do that. So I think that that factors in as well. You, you have to start looking at where the value might land on, on taking s- chances on some of those receivers. But I think a lot of times a, a deeper type receiver that's gonna be on my roster, I want somebody with...

I probably lean more towards I want somebody with upside and situation that could step in here. And then if really I feel like I, it's really tough for me to buy into those players being producers year over year. So if they do produce, then I have trade bait, basically. I have trade chips that I, I can able to move in and then constantly looking for, I think we had a really good opportunity with Malik Nabers this past year of, of a player that you could buy as a potential injury discount.

I think right now, from what I've seen in leagues that I'm operating in, you're starting to see Justin Jefferson or CeeDee Lamb because now they are age 27 and no longer age 26, and now they are ancient in dynasty, like opportunities for that. And so I think that having those players that can recognize some high value and, and even those splash weeks that can gain attention or the period that we're in right now in training camp, those players that can generate training camp highlights and re- give you value windows off of that, I, I think is where I approach the deeper wide receivers on my roster.

Blaylock: Well, that's what we're gonna be talking about primarily today is how you build a wide receiver room. And while we'll be looking at it mostly through the lens of a startup draft, it still applies to any kind of a dynasty team wherever you happen to be on your league journey. Uh, and we're also gonna assume that you're either in a full PPR or a half PPR kind of format because obviously if you are in what used to be known as the standard format or non-PPR, that, that changes the value calculation so much that what we're about to talk about is probably irrelevant, I would say, uh, to that kind of a league.

Um, but you know, wide receivers, with the exception of people like Deebo Samuel, basically score points in only one way: they catch the ball. Uh, running backs can score in basically two ways: they can run the ball and they can catch the ball. So how is it, Jeff, that you value wide receivers relative to running backs in dynasty?

Bell: I think that, I mean, we've already talked a little bit about scoring differences. I mean, there, there is full PPR or half PPR that accounts for some of those differences with the running backs. But I, I do think that the conversation gets lost a little bit when it comes down to looking at wide receivers re- verse running backs because fragility is one thing that always gets talked about.

Or people-- You think you can bank on the health of running backs, and I think that that's half of the way to look at it. It's less that to me, it's more the replaceability is, is a big part, big part of it, where you lose a wide receiver and like CeeDee Lamb gets hurt for the Cowboys, and yeah, George Pickens gets more targets, but really nobody else kind of steps up.

Uh, and I think that that's whereas if you lose a starting running back, you're g- you know that they're gonna plug another running back in there, and he's gonna get 10 to 15 to 20 touches that can recognize value. And so I think it's, I think so often we get focused on not wanting to have running backs on our rosters because we're worried about running backs being injured more than wide receivers, when the reality of it is you have the receivers because when the running back does get hurt, that generates the value coming in off the back end of it.

So that, that's where I like to build heavier on wide receivers 'cause everything's relative. As you look, look across your league, there's... I mean, we are moving into a window now. We're seeing more bell cow running backs coming out of it, so that does dictate value a little bit there from the where we were when running back groups were committees and, and you had, and th- this different hodgepodge of where these points were coming from.

But having that solid base of wide receiver production allows you to have that flexibility of the running backs to be able to plug players in as the injuries arrive, whereas with the wide receivers, you just don't see that much of the predictable replaceability.

Blaylock: Absolutely. Um, if you're, you know, for folks who are coming to dynasty fairly recently and may have lived their lives, uh, in ESPN redraft leagues, you're probably used to seeing two running backs and two wide receivers as requirements in that starting lineup. But there are a whole lot of other configurations.

I think, Jeff, I'm in a league that you and I are league, you're a commissioner of where I believe we can start five wide receivers and two running backs or something like that. We have to-- we're required to start five and two or five and three. So there's all kinds of, of ways you could balance these two out.

Does that-- does the relative number of one versus the other in a starting lineup in terms of required s-slots, does that change your valuation of either running backs or wide receivers?

Bell: I don't know that I'm the right person to answer this question, to be honest because I was somebody that even before I started playing Dynasty and even before it became trendy and before Shawn Siegele did a lot of work on it and before Matt Waldman did a lot of work on it, I, I was somebody that would lean into a zero running back build as, as it kinda came through and put value on those high-end wide receivers.

And so that, the starting number doesn't really dictate the way that I'm trying to build the roster out. I'm, again, I'm, I'm a Footballguys loyalist. I was a subscriber before I became a staff member and, uh, value-based drafting I think is ingrained in, in my blood of what I'm trying to do. But I mean, you kinda to some level there's layers between value with the scoring what your league dictates.

There's values with internal value system of where you wanna build in Dynasty and that, that's where that kinda Dynasty becomes a little bit three-dimensional in that way. But I wouldn't say that I necessarily decide how I'm gonna build because I'm, again, I'm just looking for value more often than not when it's coming to rosters and, and I'm willing to live with some ugly spots in a roster if I like the other spots in a roster

Blaylock: And I assume that's gonna apply to your flex spots as well, whether there's one of them or five of them or 10 of them. So you're probably not mentally assigning those to positions. You, you, you're going more the, the, the VBD kind of direction, value-based drafting. Joe Bryant, our, the lead football guy, uh, the, the architect of that style of drafting.

Um, so you think of this sort of mix of positions. Do you, do you kind of reach a point where you think, "Man, I really should probably take one of these other positions. I've taken seven straight wide receivers here 'cause that's where the value's been, and I love this next wide receiver up here, but should I really go somewhere else here?"

Bell: I would say if there's wide receivers that I love on the board, I'm probably gonna take wide receivers. But then as we get through the back half of both rookie drafts as in startup drafts, that's where I'll start to hammer the running back positions pretty heavily. And I try to... It's really easy to fall into the trap of liking the young athletic tight end that is like down the depth chart.

And, and so that's something that you have to be cognizant of, I think, and fight a little bit against as you're kind of going through because if you don't, then all of a sudden you can be like, "Well, I have seven tight ends on my roster. What am I doing here with these seven tight ends?" So I think that, that that's where when the positions come in of, uh, to some level I think there's a natural saturation point with wide receivers.

So basically there's not any more like, uh, I very much... It's hard to describe it, but it's like players that matter and players that don't. And I kinda know where the feel of, of where I'm deciding on players that matter and players that don't. When I'm, when the wide receivers are off the board in that regard, then any running back could end up mattering

Blaylock: Are there any particular rules or league settings in a dynasty league that, that would cause you to put another position ahead of wide receivers? It sounds like you're, you're the in that pro hammer wide receivers early kind of camp. Is there something that would make you not do that?

Bell: I mean, certainly there are settings that can play into it that, you know, points per carry, those types of things that can just tilt the value equation so much that you need to get these running backs at this spot or you're going to be in trouble in this league. And, and you do have to look at it that way because you can't count on filling it in the rookie draft necessarily because if running backs are gonna be valued heavily in the startup, they're also gonna be running valued, valued heavily in the rookie draft.

And what we've seen, what we saw last year with Jeremiah Love, what we saw with Bijan Robinson when he came out, what we saw with Ashton Jeanty is you can't get into that top spot. That running back's gonna go there because that team was bad and, and they want that running back there. And so I do think to some regard, yeah, certainly you can get into situations where there's just gonna be balance, a lack of balance in one way or the other.

And, and I'm somebody, I like more balance between the positions and so like I, I don't, I don't know. I mean, I y- you play in a league like, like, like you said, that where I set it up so you start two running backs and five receivers and to some regard, you know, it's a 10-person league. It's a little bit of a smaller league and, and we're just having a little bit of fun there in that regard.

But I do think that we... And, and maybe it's because it's the height of charity draft season and, but like you get... We all wanna be creative, but like it's a lot of work to be creative and to like balance out like these things. And to some regard it's, I mean, I, I would prefer my work is going to creating dynasty content and, and helping people win their dynasty leagues.

I've, I really struggle with management of some of my leagues and a more bizarre league like that is like, you know what? I'm, I'm okay sitting this one out. Like I, I like the, to see that. But that, that's not a knock against, I've seen all kinds of different formats that, uh, home leagues or whatnot, that they love them.

It's just that, um, to some regard, let's, let's play a game one way, I guess.

Blaylock: I, I hear that. I, I don't, I don't think about how many leagues I'm in, but how many different rule sets and scoring rules are in place in all those leagues. And I just, uh, got into, uh, the Razz Bowl, uh, this, this week. It's starting. I'm like, "Oh, thank God, it's just a regular old league with plain old settings."

It's, it's very predictable in terms of what the valuations of players are going to be, and I could just draft like the old days of value-based drafting with no need to worry about, "Oh no, I need a sixth wide receiver over here," or, "I gotta get three tight ends over there," or anything like that.

Bell: It, it's, it's almo- it's like going through the, uh, it's like "Alice in Wonderland," like going through the rabbit hole of like, as you get more and more involved in fantasy, i- i- it's like your mind expands and like, holy cow, there's so many different things to do in, in this direction. And then like, as you make it through that rabbit hole, you're kind of like, "Yeah, but like I like doing this thing over here.

Blaylock: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, it's nice. Three receivers, two running backs, point per carry, I mean, point per, uh, reception. Love it. You know, just very nice and basic. Um, so you mentioned, of course, zero running back, which is one of the more famous, uh, uh, strategies for drafting a- and kind of anywhere. When you're looking at a startup draft, you know, and you're thinking about the approaches for the wide receiver position, you know, broadly I see kind of, kind of three, which is, you know, you load it up, which I'd call the bully wide receiver.

Um, you get your WR1 and then you focus elsewhere, which would be the hero wide receiver. Uh, and then there are some, in some circumstances, where you might wanna go zero wide receiver. I'm guessing you could have a hard time coming up with those circumstances, but that is nonetheless a strategy, especially if that's kind of the way the board's value's breaking.

Then you have value-based drafting and probably some others. So let's kind of look at, at each one of those and talk about the, you know, the pros and cons, how, how appealing is it, and then how happy are you when you, when you use it. And we'll start with, with bully wide receivers. So this is probably getting, uh, three, three or four wide receivers with your first four picks in the draft.

What's, uh... Why would you wanna do that, and why would you not wanna do that?

Bell: Well, I mean, one is a start, is a super flex league because that, that dictates the conversation a little bit. And to some degree, I, I don't love really playing too risky with my QB2 in super flex leagues. I'm, I feel like I'm old school in that regard to some, some ways because it does seem like a newer school way of thinking in dynasty is the replacement ability of a QB2.

Whereas, you know, in like 2020 or so and 2019, like getting two elite quarterbacks was a pretty fun way to build a super flex team. But I think the bully wide receiver, I mean, you're insulating yourself with that nice solid base of wide receiver production there. You're, you're not kind of hunting for these random one-offs to get into a lineup.

And, and to some regard too, you're dictating the way the rest of the league has to play. And I think that that, I, I see it so often on, um, you'll, you'll see people that they'll, they'll draft and they will not like their draft and they'll be really frustrated with the draft because the, basically they tried to take what the room was giving them versus being the person that's dictating the direction that the, the room is going to go.

And so I think that really you look at bully wide receiver or bully running back, any bully approach like that is, is you're bleeding out because you're having the expectation of like, well, so-and-so's got two running back spots filled and a flex filled. They are not gonna take another running back. So I'm playing this game in my mind of what's gonna be available on the board, and then they go and take a running back again and you're like, "Oh, well that, that shifted a whole lot."

And that ev- you have 11 other people in the league that are thinking that in the same regard. And so I think that getting that, that nice insulation of production out of the wide receiver position and then also potentially dictating how others in your draft are going to spiral more or less and, and attack the situation in a way that they might not necessarily want to.

Blaylock: Yeah, there's a, there's always somebody on the board who's got that helplessness because everyone else has dictated a direction and they're left with whoever's left, and it's a, it's a bad feeling to be that, that guy. Um, if you've used Bully Tight End lately, uh, you know, how happy were you with what you ended up with at the end of the day?

Did you, did you like the drafts that you were getting? Did you wish you'd done something different or, or say, "You know what? This is... I'm, I'll go to war with this"?

Bell: Uh, bully wide receiver. Um, it's really ha- like we're, I, I wish we were talking about this in like April or like, well, not April. I don't wanna talk about anything in

Blaylock: year we will,

uh, 

Bell: like, like early May 'cause like you run into August and like my, my brain is like very best ball brained right now on where ADP is landing because I think so much of what I'm seeing off of ADP in, in best ball is, you know, you, you get the fourth pick, you get Puka Nacua and coming back, usually the running backs are off the board and you're taking a, a Drake London or something like that.

And, um, you know, if you wanted to go Malik Nabers in round three or Rashee Rice in round three, like something like that. And you're kinda... The value's dictating that you go in that direction and, and I'm fine with it because I think it's, we-- It's so funny to me of the way that the conversation about the way running backs are getting pushed up the board and like the talk that that's eliminating Zero-RB and it's like g- guys, you, you realize where Zero-RB started from.

You used to, and Jeff, I know you remember when you would play fantasy and the first 15 picks would be running backs and every single time, like without fail. And so that's where Zero-RB started. So the idea that running backs are going early is eliminating Zero-RB. No, it's, it's creating the environment that allowed Zero-RB to be a functional strategy to approach it.

But, um, yeah, I think it does. happy if I, depending on how it, it plays out. The, the problem that you run into, I think with dynasty is the, that middle tier of receiver, like the kind of the WR8 territory or so starts to get a little bit iffy relative to your, like, WR15. I think that you start to blend a little bit there.

And so I think that that's one knock against. If, if you're able to on a turn or be leagues going running back heavy, things like that and, and you know, you've got a Puka Nacua and you've got another high-end wide receiver there, yeah, you'd be really happy with that strategy. But trying to chase it and ending up in a situation where you're forcing picks, I think really gets you in trouble.

Blaylock: I'm trying desperately to remember, and I won't be able to while we're recording, but I'm sure I'll remember at 4:00 in the morning later tonight. I won't call you and tell you. Uh, but I, I just remember being in a draft and watching people walk up and put running back stickers on the board, and we get to around pick number nine and somebody stuck a wide receiver up there, and there was an audible gasp from the room that someone was doing that.

Uh, I don't remember if that dude ended up winning the title or not, but it was just sort of a, "Oh, okay. There's a contrarian viewpoint here. That's kind of interesting." The rest of us are all drafting almost identically. Running backs the top, then we'll do the wide receivers, then we'll pick up a tight end, then another running back, and then we'll find the quarterback around round 10 or so, 'cause that's, uh, that's where they lived

Bell: used to, there were times like early 2000s you could do, you'd get a top four running back and then you would still get two top five wide receivers at the second and third round because that's just the way that it would go. And it was like, as s- like I had a light bulb moment when I realized that of like these leagues and it was like, holy cow, you mean to tell me I can get Steve Jackson and also get Reggie Wayne and Randy Moss here?

And why am I not doing that every single time that I'm doing a draft?

Blaylock: Right. Well, let's, uh, let's shift over a little bit to what, what I would call, like, the hero wide receiver. The hero RB is where I'm p- uh, getting this from. That's where the term is, is more likely used, where you're gonna get your, your top wide receiver in the first round, and then you're gonna pivot to some other positions first.

And I think particularly when we're talking superflex, that some form of this has to happen if you don't wanna w- leave round three without a quarterback. You've got to... You, you have to take some kind of a hero approach with at least one other position. Um, what's, you know, what's your thought on, on hero wide receiver a- as a tactic?

And feel free to split between superflex and one QB, because the, I think that's radically different here for those two different, uh, different leagues when it comes to this strategy.

Bell: Yeah. So I, I do think, like, I wanna take a quick detour and imagine that. I wanna take a quick detour out doing a show. But like, to... I think where people get in trouble with these strategies is deciding, well, I'm building a zero RB team. And I'm of the belief that like zero RB just happens to you. you don't intend to build one certain direction.

You, you lean into, and it all stems out of value-based drafting to some regard, but you, you're leaning into where the value in the drafts is dictating you go and, and it's funny to me of like setting out to draft zero RB to me is just s- setting out to draft a bad team. I don't know why you would do that.

Whereas when you look back and say, "Oh, this ended up as a zero RB team," or, "Okay, well I've gone no running backs in the first eight picks now because of the way that the value's dictated. Now I'm gonna hammer these profiles of the way that I build a zero RB team." Like, like that's how to approach strategies, I think, when it comes down to it.

But ultimately, when you're looking at the hero wide receiver, the hero RB build, you're hoping you're solving one position and you're willing to live with the variability, the uncertainty of the other positions. So you're locking in, be it a hero RB, be it a hero wide receiver. I know that my WR1, I've got Puka Nacua.

I'm starting him every single week. I don't need to worry about that. That, just take that off the board. Now I'm, now I need to solve these other two wide receiver positions, is, is what you're doing with that hero strategy. And I mean, again, I think it's if the value dictates it, I think any strategy is fine if the value dictates it.

It's just that when you, you say, "I'm drafting a zero RB team. I'm not gonna take Josh Jacobs here because I'm drafting a zero RB team." And it's like, well, no, that's not exactly what you should be doing

Blaylock: that works. Yeah. Yeah, I, I, I know, I'm, I guess I'm a little weird in that I just kind of don't have a particular strategy in, in mind or one I wanna go with in the first three or four rounds of the draft. I kinda wanna see how value's being dictated, see if I can take charge of value, as you say, i- if I can create a run on a position when it comes to me.

Part of that's just where did I fall on the, among the 10 or 12 or 14 picks in a round. But by about the, the four or five turn, I've got a pretty good idea of, of where this is going. But I'm like you, too. I mean, if I'm thinking, "Okay, I'm not really gonna draft a running back here. I'm gonna do this value," and you've got a bell cow adjacent back falling into the fifth round, it's really hard not to just do that, right?

I mean, you're just... He's right there, right there for the picking

Bell: I, and I think one of the things that I think it really... Everybody wants to move back because it's been established that moving back and getting more value is the smart thing to do. But like, it's like one of those things of the market's inefficient, the market's not operating properly because it's, it's like everybody wants to move back, but they want the price of like everybody wanting to move up basically.

And so like I, I see when I'm, the startups that I've done, I've only done two startups this year. I try really hard not to do startups in the off-season 'cause I, you can end up in too many leagues way too quickly. But what I've seen is just a lack of movement early because it's, it's the two sides of one coin.

It's that the, everybody wants to move back, but in the market nobody's recognizing that everybody wants to move back. Because hypothetically, if you're in a situation where everybody wants to move back and everybody should recognize that, then the value, the price to move up should be much lower. Because if, if everybody's trying to do this thing, then you should be willing to accept that.

But instead we get stuck into, well, the trade chart says it should be this or the established value or, or I want, uh, your 27 first before I'm gonna reckon, pretend to do anything. And, and when we... That's the other part that we run into is when you run into those classes, like the '27 class, the '23 class is an example of that, of it's like a non-starter on everybody just wants that 27 first.

It's like nobody can move their mind past that object 'cause everything you want that 27 first no matter what you do. And then the, like the other side of it, you just run into being stuck in negotiations so often what I see, I think in startups.

Blaylock: Yeah. I, I've run into that myself where I would be willing to move up, but I, I'm not gonna pay the, the kind of

Bell: Yeah. It's like it...

Blaylock: value to move up, but I'm not

Bell: in the group chat that you wanna move down. You've been doing that for two hours. You know the offers aren't coming in. If you wanna move down, here's the price. Like that, that's the way a market should work. But like Dynasty is so weird in, in regards to... And that's where I, I end up getting a lot of deals done because like I, I'm willing to probably accept below market potentially.

But I'll recognize like my motivation in this is, is outside of what a chart dictates the value is. I'm, I wanna get off this player 'cause I don't believe in him, so I'm, I'm gonna get off of him. Or like, like those types of things of being willing to be flexible in that approach.

Blaylock: Yeah. It's like I'm sitting here in this position and the best value out here is Rashee Rice, and I do not want that man on my team. Maybe somebody else does. And, and I'm with you, I may take a lower than ret- lower than market return to just not have to do that, but also not have to take the guy next that's a definite tier down from there.

I can move backwards hopefully and get somebody out of that same tier and maybe pick up somebody's third in 2027, and you can have Rashee Rice and have fun with that. He'll either win you the league or he'll give you zero. It's kind of that, one or the other. But as you're looking at your wide receiver room, Jeff, um, what, what does an ideal room look like to you?

If you're, if you've got your dynasty roster, whether we're talking startup, whether you've been doing it for 10 years in the same league, whether you just got an orphan, whatever it is, what does an ideal wide receiver room look like for you?

Bell: I mean, you, if you've played dynasty and you're playing aggressively over a number of years, we... The, the problem that we, the problem with dynasty is dynasties, basically. Because you run into a situation where, like I've got teams where I've got Puka Nacua, Ja'Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb. And so like, if you were to ask me what my ideal team looks like, it's like, well, I do have this team over here that does have Puka Nacua, Ja'Marr Chase, and Malik Nabers as the three wide receivers.

So that's probably my ideal room of as we're looking at dynasty. But that, I mean, that's in, that's what's in play in dynasty, and that's really what you're trying to build 

I mean, having at least two elite guys I think is an ideal room of what you're looking for. And then as you're building it out, like if I'm coming out of a startup, I'm in a startup right now, you know, having, uh, two elite guys at the top and then having, um, young players that can become an elite player or young players that will give me an entry into getting that third elite player.

'Cause then like once you have, you're gonna start three, once you can lock in those top three, then it's like almost the infinity gauntlet is built here and now I can do the other things that I wanna do. 

So it's, I think a lot of where it comes down is gonna be acquisition cost on less like what profile you're looking at and more the acquisition cost that you're paying for that profile and, and being willing to... Dynasty leagues that, that are, have 29 players on a roster and 12 team league that you're, you know, you can pick up. If you can pick up a guy that could hit your lineup for nothing, then you've done something good there. And so I think it, it's less probably on an overall ideal mix and more what's the acquisition cost to be able to have options that as we step into byes or injuries

Blaylock: Do you think that i- if you've got, you've gotten your couple of elite guys at the top, does that make you more willing to take chances on upside, uh, down the wide receiver room later on? Or are you still looking at, "Let me just keep banking this position with as many points as I can up top"?

Bell: No, I, I, I firmly believe that there's a wide receiver cliff and I'm trying to get as many guys out as before that cliff hits because once it does hit, then you're really starting to step into sp- some speculative plays and I think that be it your rookie draft, be it your startup draft, you're gonna run into that in any format.

And yeah, there are players that come out of that, that surprise, but it's like outliers versus there versus being churning running backs, those types of things that the guys that you're able to plug in. Emanuel Wilson here for a week or things like that

Blaylock: Yeah, there's a big difference between an outlier performance being you scored 3.6 points and an outlier performance being you scored 23.6 points. Uh, and you definitely want y- it's nice to have some of the latter, but you really need some of the former, uh, to make this work as, as a dynasty and to be consistently at the top, to be going to the north as we use in our compass metaphor here.

That's where the perennial contenders are d- are moving. Um, but if, if you were... You're, you're now, you know, drafting, you're in, you're in a startup, you are looking at selecting those wide receivers, and we've talked a little bit about it at the top. I mean, you're trying to, super flex aside, where you may be trying to lock your quarterbacks down, you're also really trying to get those, those elite top guys right off the bat.

When are you-- Let's assume those are then your WR1 and your WR2. When do you, when do you start looking for your WR3, your four, your five, maybe your six, maybe more, depending on how many you've got to play?

Bell: Always, Jeff. Always, always keeping the eyes peeled for him. But no, it, it's, uh, it really, again, like I'm, I, I can just hit value-based drafting on, on all of it, but, and it is defining your own values that you're looking for. But I mean, age, I'm an ageist. I like young players when I'm doing a startup because more often than not, yeah, sometimes you're gonna be wrong, but sometimes you're gonna be very right.

And that's where they said, like, these dynasties get generated because you took a chance on Puka Nacua or you, you did move that direction. You got, got it right. So really, I mean, it's looking to be in a startup like my teams, more often than not, my running back position looks like garbage my first year in a dynasty league.

And I'm, I'm perfectly fine. It is... That's the other funny thing of like, I'm perfectly fine getting the second pick in, in year one because I've built, drafted a d- a young roster out of the startup and I'm gonna build that way. But you get into these cla- these 27 classes where just people lose their mind and like, uh, like I, like somebody posted like a link for a tool from Dynasty or whatnot, like that had team values and everything.

And there was one team way down here and they, like I looked at the roster and it's like they had like Jaxson Dart and an additional 27 firsts. And I was like, "Well, where, where are the rest of your pieces? Like the, the what happened here?" Like, and I think that you, you do run into that with these classes of people move so hard in wanting to be at the top of that class that you one, yeah, Jeremiah Smith should be pretty awesome, but the, the number three and the number four pick in that rookie class is still gonna probably be pretty good if we're moving that way.

But it's like, it's so hard to build out of that way. And I do think that people get too extreme in clearing the deck and, and a whole bunch of seconds isn't gonna do much for you.

Blaylock: I think that's a really excellent point, Jeff, and one that, that, that we kind of lose sight of sometimes is that it-- which positions are the hardest to build via a rookie draft? Because you, you have to hit more often than not on some positions than others. In my mind, if you've got two or three elite wide receivers on your roster today, you really only have to hit on another one sometime in the next four seasons or so.

Uh, and that makes a big difference in needing to hit on two of them in 2027 and one in 2028 to become competitive. And, you know, you and I being who we are and in the industry we work in and with, uh, Footballguys, the firm we work for, we're- we do- uh, we're pretty good at rookie evals. At least I think we are.

At least I think I am. I know you are. Uh, and so I think we are a little a- little bit better able to lean into that rookie evaluation process to build. But for a, a, you know, a, a manager that's not glued to or... I mean, how many wide receivers did you, did you scout? Like 83 or something like that originally before you had to cut it down to a more manageable 60-something for the rookie guide or, uh, whatever those numbers were.

For anyone who doesn't have time to do that, building through the rookie drafts can be daunting i- if you don't have some elite wide receivers up front. So if you're starting, uh, uh, from zero and you're building, when do you start really getting really antsy that you don't have your WR1 and your WR2 locked down?

Bell: Um, when they're off the board I guess to some regard. I mean, like, like we're dealing with finite resources here. It's like, you know, I, I can't build a log cabin if all the logs have been claimed, like, at, at some regard. So, uh, I mean, that's, that's probably, it's probably less like the, the dictating my roster and with the available resources that, that you can...

Again, there, there's only so many logs to build the cabin that we're trying to build here, and, and everybody wants them. So, I mean, it, it is playing those tiers and, um, and, and just looking at it in that regard of, of how many is left in the tier? Is it gonna make it to me? Do I need to make a move here?

And, um, do I, how do I position myself to clean out this tier if possible? And, and just kinda b- flexibility in that approach to some regard. But also, I mean, again, there's only so many resources. And yeah, I mean, I could talk myself into Tetairoa McMillan being my WR1, but I also don't know that I'm gonna win any championships anytime soon if Tetairoa McMillan's my WR1 on this roster

Blaylock: What are you, what are you looking for? I mean, aside from, you know, I would like to have CeeDee Lamb as my WR3, which it sounds like you do on one of your teams. That would be an ideal WR3. But what are you generally looking for, uh, in your WR3 position on your roster, whether they're your starting wide receiver or whether they're going to be a starting flex for you?

Bell: So I, I think that, like Jameson Williams is my ideal WR3. 'Cause Jameson Williams, I value him as a top 15 wide receiver. The production the last, last year especially has put him in that regard. But the consensus on the market views him more as like a low-end WR2. And so finding a player where there's that, that difference in consensus that, that's viewed kind of as that low-end WR2 but has the top 15 ceiling, I think it would be the ideal WR3 when you're looking at a build and, and, and talking about a half PPR or full PPR format.

'Cause I think if you... wide receiver heavy builds are really fun, but if it's not, no PPR, it goes back to your very first question on running backs being able to score two different ways. And I mean, I've seen that before too, and, and it's funny because y- we're, we're backed off like the zero RB talk of like two summers ago basically, but I played fantasy for a long time and th- that same talk was about like 2016.

It was all like, gotta be zero RB builds. Be, you gotta have these wide receivers. And I remember I was invited my very first industry league then was an auction, and I just bought four high-end running backs and I just got roasted in the group chat and I won the league because I had rookie Odell Beckham and like I just, uh, bowling balls at, at running back that, that just dominated in that regard.

But, uh, it really does come down to, I think, looking at... I think so often where I like to end up is, um, looking at have we, have we taken too strong a stance of this player where we could be wrong? And has that built upon itself to drive him down within the market value? Does he have, his production in the past, his profile?

Ja- Jameson Williams being a top 12 pick and producing as a high-end wide receiver previously and having still that, that view, that volatility around him, I think makes him an ideal WR3. But also you look at the good side of a Jameson Williams with that ceiling being there of, of any week you get that score from that WR3 that can push you to winning your week because that player was in your lineup.

Blaylock: How would you feel about him as your WR2?

Bell: I would prefer he's my WR3, but, you know, can live

Blaylock: I'd prefer he's my WR5, but I don't get that.

Bell: Yeah. No, I mean, in, in ideally, hypothetically, you're looking at that as you've built strength throughout the rest of your roster that's going to allow him to be in that role where, a- and we're talking about a volatile player in that regard.

But, um, really just kinda looking for that profile of that low-end WR2 in the market that has potential to be a WR1. Yeah, you should be happy with that as your WR2 in a lot of different formats and builds. But, um, it, it is just depends on what, how you're trying to build strength throughout your roster

Blaylock: When, when do you get comfortable with high volatility? Where, where on the pecking order of your wide receivers do you, do you get to the point where you're willing to take a low-floor game for the high-ceiling game a- and not know what that might be from week to week?

Bell: Well, I mean, there's like, like Adonai Mitchell, I don't know that I wanna have Adonai Mitchell in my starting lineup too often unless like situation dictates it. So like, but at the same time, like volatility in wide receivers is something that doesn't scare me at all. It's, it's... Who's, Jeff, do you know who the most consistent wide receiver was last year?

Blaylock: The guy who didn't score any points?

Bell: Jakobi Meyers was the

Blaylock: Okay. Okay. So he actually did score points, so that's good

Bell: Yeah. So, and I got that off of Tristan Cockcroft had done a, an article about consistency on ESPN towards the end of last year, and Jacobi Meyers graded out as the most consistent wide receiver. And the reason why Jacobi Meyers was the most consistent r- wide receiver was as much avoiding the low end as it was not having the high ends.

And, and you look at a player, I've, I've been on this all off season. I know you crushed the spotlight work that you did with Jason, but I did a spotlight early in the off season on Jameson Williams, and one of the things that I looked at in Jameson Williams is the conversation around him being a boom-bust player.

And the reality of it is, is Jameson Williams, he's not really any more boom-bust than most wide receivers. It's just that the bust is bust so hard. It's, it's that you're ready for Jameson Williams to take off and he has a two-game PED sus- suspension out of nowhere. You're ready for Jameson Williams to take off and here's a zero, right when Dan Campbell's talking about how important he is.

Like that, like Jameson Williams, it goes back to, I mean, we're doing a wide receiver show. I feel like it's impossible not to mention Matt Harmon, who's been a mentor for me. But Matt Harmon talking about when you're prospecting, when you're watching film, and you can be watching a receiver and that first drop comes up on that film and everybody goes to their spreadsheet and notes a drop or notes concentration drops, whatever else it might be.

Because the, the bad is so extreme that it o- outweighs the volatility in Jameson Williams. If it wasn't random PED suspensions and zeros out of nowhere, if it was just like four points here, then like CeeDee Lamb has weeks where he has three or four points. Like every wide receiver does. And, and so I think that that's where we-- that zero is just so painful when you're looking at in your lineup because you're looking at literally anybody else I could put in here, and especially if you lost a close game, a zero.

I mean, that three hurts you just as much as that zero does, but it doesn't feel the same when it comes into the mental side of it.

Blaylock: Yeah. I mean, it's, it's you hear Dan Campbell say how important Jameson Williams is to the offense, and then you watch the defense rub him completely off the field because that's the way they chose to play it. And there's really nothing you can do. I mean, Ja'Marr Chase gets two points every once in a while.

Puka Nacua gets two points every once in a while. I mean, the, the idea of a safe floor i- is really a, a myth. But I do love that you brought up, uh, Jakobi Meyers. I was being flippant when I said it was the guy who didn't score any points, 'cause that's real consistency right there, just this flat zero everywhere.

Uh, but, you know, having a floor guy and that's it with no boom doesn't really do a lot for you, uh, i- in most formats unless we are talking about p- conceivably a WR3 or a WR4, where you just know you're gonna bank 12 points and that's that. Uh, and if that's what you need, that's, that's what you need.

So I don't know if that would be, you know, if a, if a Jakobi Meyers type is, you know, what would you call like an ideal WR4 if you're looking for steady floor there? Or are you already trying to find upside and you're willing to say, "You know what? If he gets a zero, he gets a zero."

Bell: I'd would, would rather have a guy like Omar Cooper than like Jakobi Meyers of basically like, again, like just building through youth, building. And really it comes down to looking at profiles on, and, and I think a lot of my work through, through the rookie guide, what I'm looking for is profiles of this is, this is the profile that works within an NFL passing attack or this, if this player realizes his ceiling, that's what it's going to look like in an NFL passing attack.

And so a guy like, like Dont'e Thornton last summer, everybody was really excited about Dont'e Thornton last summer about running with the ones. But it's like, if you scheme this out, like what's Dont'e Thornton doing running with the ones? He's running a straight line down the field and a defender's going with him and like the ball's not going with him.

Like that, that's

Blaylock: running a lot of cardio

Bell: Yeah, exactly. And so, and, and yeah, I, I mean Jakobi Meyers is a player that I'd, I would take a lot like when he was a couple years ago, just because I, I think when you're looking at the pecking order of where he stood with the Raiders passing attack, where the value was relative to the market, like that there's opportunity there.

But it's, it's one that again, you're just trying to marry the opportunity. You're trying to marry the cost that's going to be involved in it. You're trying to look at profiles of where a player fits within a passing attack and, and where can consistent predictable volume come from and, and is this player good enough that if the value is going to be there, he can actually do something with it?

Blaylock: Let's, uh, uh, that's, yes. That, that is also... And with Jakobi Meyers, I, I guess I didn't mean him specifically as much as that sort of very steady kind of player. Because yes, I would prefer a much younger asset to Jakobi Meyers too, if given the choice between them, and I think Cooper's a, a good option there.

Um, but let's look a little deeper, and we're now into deep rounds, which for dynasty leagues can mean all sorts of things. It could mean rounds 12 and on, it could mean rounds 25 and on. What are kind of your, your, your ideal deep round or last round wide refi- ceivers? What do they look like, and how many of them do you want?

Y- I think you said earlier you really don't want more than six or seven wide receivers on your team. I guess if you have a bench of 40 people, that number shifts a little bit. But what, what's an ideal, you know, dart throw for you in the last rounds of a dynasty startup?

Bell: So like Adonai Mitchell would be an ideal dar- dart throw there, where, you know, he has... It's kinda, he's been forgotten about as a player, like, like Keon Coleman is a type of like late last round dart throw type player where there's draft capital there. The early part of their career hasn't gone the way that we would like it to go.

But at the same time, you can look at the skill set that they're offering and what they bring in, and you can see, you can profile it into this is where it fits within this receiver room. And, and I'm the type that, especially in startups, I'm willing to take a chance on the Matthew Golden, on the Keon Coleman, on those types of players because relative to taking the steady-eddy vet that might be sitting there or, or if I know that Keon Coleman flames out this year, I'm just cutting him and I'm moving on.

But I know if it, if it hits, uh, they-- the Bills figure out a first round pick. I've got Jo- a first round pick that got figured out with Josh Allen or early second round pick that got figured out with Josh Allen playing quarterback. Like that, that's, that's the type of, uh, in kind of avoiding probably situational traps that, you know, if, if it's gonna be like as-- Jalen Coker is not a good example for it, but like a player that's just gonna be, even if they hit, they're not hitting in regard that is going to change the value dramatically that they're offering onto your roster

Blaylock: Let's, let's shift our attention. We've been talking about startups, but, uh, I mean, everything we've talked about applies whether you have just now building it, uh, from scratch or if you've got a, a roster that's already constructed and you're trying to figure out how to improve it. But let's look specifically at upgrading or, or rebuilding your wide receiver room.

Hopefully you're upgrading. If you're rebuilding it, this could, this could be painful for a while because as, as we, we mentioned earlier, trying to, trying to hit on multiple elite wide receivers in rookie drafts is, is not easy to do. Um, but how would you go about correcting holes or deficiencies in your, in your wide receiver room?

Let's, let's kind of start with a lack of elite talent. Everyone is okay. They, they have good floors. They put up good numbers. They're pretty consistent, but no one's putting the fear into an opponent's heart. No one's afraid to face your receivers. How do you go about... First of all, do you go about fixing that?

And secondly, how do you go about fixing that?

Bell: getting... You're, you're just gonna have to take chances 

we're not talking tight ends. But like I traded DK Metcalf for a pick that ended up being Brock Bowers. And so I took a risk on trading DK Metcalf for a draft pick at a time when he was valued still slightly high and it turned into Brock Bowers.

Taking a risk in that regard probably on being able to hit on a profile like Brian Thomas or a later receiver like that is one way that you can go about fixing it. One way is make it so bad that you just get Jeremiah Smith is, is one way you can, can go about fixing it. Um, a- and I think it really just comes down to at some level you're gonna have to take a level of risk to be able to fix situations like that.

Or, I mean, I'll, I'll lean into the value that's gonna be given to me because situation dictates to that value and try to hit it that way, I think is, is probably the other way.

But I think it really, you're always looking for the buying windows for those opportunities of Malik Nabers jogs funny at a softball game and everybody else has nothing to do on Twitter and so go buy Malik Nabers at that time. Rashee Rice does something dumb and you offer for Rashee Rice that day. And, and I think that looking at basically it's like the old Warren Buffett of it.

When everybody's running away from a situation, that's when you buy and when, uh, everybody is all in on it of a guy like Josh Downs or something like that, it's like, eh, maybe the market's tipping a little bit far this direction on, uh, where I should dictate this move. But really probably just, I mean, embracing risk I think is the way that you fix it.

Either troubled situations, injuries, or through rookie picks is really the only way that you can go about fixing it. But... And I think it's so... I love when we get into, I mean, point scoring season, leaning into the dynasty, but like you get that player that's injured and especially, I mean, if you have more inexperienced managers, that player's hurt, they're fighting for the fifth or sixth playoff spot and they recognize that I'm not getting any production here and it's like, "Oh, he, he can come on my roster here."

And, and just kinda... But, but being, being willing to embrace, uh, those risks when people are running away.

Blaylock: Yeah, I, I, I will take on broken toys. I like broken toys, uh, i- in, in my leagues because, and on my teams because they can become-- They may never become what they were before, but they're gonna become a lot more than the guy I just shipped to you because you needed production now, uh, and I don't because I am trying to get Jeremiah Smith.

There's a whole episode we did about how to tank without tanking. Uh, so follow those strategies and Jeremiah Smith can be yours too. But I do love that you mentioned that you, you traded Metcalf, uh, for a pick that became Brock Bowers. So you, you didn't get the elite wide receiver, but you still got an elite talent and it is almost myopic if we're thinking, "No, you've got to have elite wide receivers."

Well, maybe you don't. Maybe you just need elite other pl- other positions, and maybe that that's the, that's one of the ways out of the box, is you need a certain number of them basically, uh, elite players on your roster to be competitive year after year in Dynasty. Kind of doesn't matter where they are as long as they're elite and they're scoring on a weekly basis and they stay healthy

Bell: Yeah. And, and I think that that's one area that, um, I just did, uh, Jakob Sanderson was on the Dynasty show last week, and Jakob's one of the smartest people in the fantasy space. I love talking theory with him and, and Adam Harstad was on earlier and, and just talking about liquidity and where they're willing to go in a rebuild to get, like, very liquid in a rebuild.

I, I do think that if you're experienced to that regard, sure. But I think that that's a mistake that a lot of people make of getting super liquid and then you really get stuck into perpetual rebuilding situations. Whereas tearing it down, I've, I've had my most success on rebuilds of basically like the- these are my four high value players over here.

I'm either going to try to tier down to a younger player of similar production or I'm just, I'm sitting these four over here and I'm gonna do, um... Jakob had a really good analogy of talking about, uh, basically like if you wanna make $100 and you have $60 and you put $20 in the mattress, now you all, all of a sudden you have to make $60 instead of $40.

And to some re- I, I get that thinking. I do get that thinking and I think if you're experienced that, that is the way they approach it. But I think that if you are kind of new to this or like leaning into the known a little bit and recognizing that, hey, if you have three really good players and the rest of your team is pretty bad, that can still get you the number one pick and it can still put Jeremiah Smith into it and all of a sudden you're putting Jeremiah Smith into a pretty good situation.

And building that way and layers on top of that can be a pretty quick way to rebound what feels like a very stuck situation.

Blaylock: I like thinking that way because, you know, I view some of those kinds of elite players as the cornerstones. They're the people that if you put out marketing materials for your fantasy team, these would be the faces that are on it. And you want to-- You have this desire to build around them, but they are also the most valuable pieces that you have.

And if you can turn one of those into, as you say, tiering down to younger assets that are producing maybe not quite at that level but somewhere in there, maybe get some additional draft capital, you hit on a couple of those, you can turn a cornerstone into, you know, three starters essentially in your lineup if you do it right.

But I, I also love the idea of you just don't keep perpetually rebuilding. If you keep trading your cornerstones away, you become, um, what? The Miami Marlins o- of your fantasy league where you just-- you, you develop your guys, you get to the end of the rookie contract, you trade them away, and you repeat, and you repeat, and you repeat.

And every once in a while, you win the World Series, and the rest of the time you don't make the playoffs. And that's kind of what, what I see i- in that. So have that willingness to trade them, but don't be dead set on it either. I mean, just kind of figure out where the value is. And like I said, you can have two very elite players in your lineup and still finish three and 11 and get the number one pick.

Bell: And I think it's, I think something that I see in content quite often is like, like throwing out the idea, I mean, like, "Well, just tier off of Ja'Marr Chase for Puka Nacua and a first." And it's like, okay.

Blaylock: would do that.

Bell: But

Blaylock: in a heartbeat, yeah.

Bell: it's... But, uh, and, and I, I had a, I, I did a thread like I think it was either last summer or the summer before where like I went out to like the trade database and keep trade cut and basically I started with Ja'Marr Chase and I was like, well, you can trade Ja'Marr Chase for Puka Nacua in a first and then you can trade Puka Nacua for CeeDee Lamb in a first and then you can trade CeeDee Lamb for Justin Jefferson in a first and then all of a sudden you can have eight firsts and, oh, here's this trade where somebody traded Brian Thomas Jr.

and two seconds and a first for Ja'Marr Chase. So you can actually just trade Ja'Marr Chase for seven, for Ja'Marr Chase and seven first-round picks if you do it this way. But I, I think it's, yes, exactly. But it's... No, I think the practicality of, I think it's really hard to, to tier s- to tier down without tiering down but also getting a meaningful asset I don't think happens too, too often.

But I, I do feel like, uh, sometimes I, I love getting trades, listeners, uh, send their trades in and, and ask for an opinion on it. But it's like some regard it's like are, are you doing this because you're bored and you wanna do a dynasty trade or are you trying to get some value here because it real feel, really feels like you're bored.

Blaylock: Yeah, def- uh, that's, I always say it's the number one mistake that dynasty managers make is they make moves without having a strategy in place, and being bored is not a strategy. Uh, and I've watched lots of teams spin their wheels, uh, because, uh, May comes around, the draft is over, the rookie draft is over.

It's been two weeks since anything's happened, and, uh, you're getting some itchy trigger fingers, and you get all sorts of weird, uh, trade offers that come along and that kind of thing. Uh, let's take a situation though where we've got a couple of elite guys at the top of our roster, and then there's this just big drop off to everybody else, so that if one of our guys is on bye or injured, we're, we're, we don't have a lot of firepower to put in there.

What are you looking for there, and, and how do you try to go about and fix that situation? What's the fix you're looking for?

Bell: Well, uh, I said go lean into risk when you wanna rebuild a room. And Jeff, this is gonna be a shocking answer. Lean into risk to, uh, uh, build it. Uh, I just really just do think really in dynasty especially, I mean, you just run into if you've played fantasy football for a period of time and, or if you are involved in social media, the, the, oh my God, Rashee Rice is going to prison for the next 15 years.

It's like, okay, well Henry Ruggs happened. Sure. But for the most part, these guys, like their careers are not instantly over in that regard. And, and so I think that, um, really probably if you wanna add value onto your roster, regardless of you want it to be your WR1 or you want it to be your WR5, embracing risk is the surest way to potentially add value.

Sure, you might strike out, but at the same time you could trade for a known quantity and still strike out. I mean, there were Michael Thomas, my home league, we, we went to Dynasty in 2020 and Michael Thomas went like fifth or sixth in the startup draft and he was done and nobody knew it. Or J- Juju Smith-Schuster was the WR1 in Dynasty around that sa- same time period and Juju Smith-Schuster was done.

You could be going for what you think is locked in sure elite players and still be wrong. I'd rather be wrong on not having to pay too much and, and being wrong and it works out this way. But, um, yeah, it, to, uh, I always go, we talked about floor earlier in this episode and, and you made a really good point on the most consistent player is a zero.

I've, I've been on, uh, uh, the floor for everybody is a zero. The floor for everybody is a Tashard Choice. I vividly remember it's gotta be Tashard Choice because it is in my mind now at this point. But of running back for the Cowboys, starting a spot start and fumbling the first touch and then being benched the rest of the game and posting like negative two and it's like that's the floor for everybody.

So

Blaylock: the floor. Yeah, that is the absolute floor, yes. Yeah, you don't-- Or, or they, they come in and throw an interception on the one pass that they do. That, yeah, there are some negatives out there. Um, how about let's, let's take it as we-- or whether we have elite people or not, they are the types of just boom bust kind of elite, and then you've just got lots of high ceiling and lots of low floor.

Do you just lean into that, that high ceiling, low floor and hope that it, it works out in your favor? Or do you try to shore up a little bit of floor in there somewhere?

Bell: I, I lean into it, to be honest. I, I really don't stress floor too, too much. I mean, I'm, I'm trying to some regard, I, I mean, I'm trying to start the best player every week. Um, whether it be a, a dictated via matchup or injury creates a situation, I'm trying to start the best player every week. And so as part of that is, is leaning into the volatility probably a little bit on, uh, I really like this matchup here, even if the, the other things don't dictate that they might be super involved.

Uh, I think that in any, any game mode that you're playing, and I think that this is one thing that I'm really big on through dynasty, that playing other ways of fantasy really can help you to fill out a lineup, to look at different profiles. And I, I, I host the DFS show, and I remember when I got into DFS around 2015, how it just dramatically altered my thinking on one week matchup, basically on, on the, the price.

And, and it used to be like, why would you not start the five guys that are highest in consensus ranks? And it's like, well, because I wanna win this week and I think this guy's gonna score more points. But, uh, I do think that playing dynasty or playing, like I think playing dynasty and then moving that over to redraft, you're more dialed in on the rookies that could step up or the young players, or recognizing the way that young players ascend in redraft.

Or playing DFS opens you up to understanding the defensive matchup on the other side and understanding that, yeah, you might have the Andre Johnson, but if he's going against, I forget the corner that shut him down like every time. There was one guy that had him or, um, Mike Evans and Marcus Lattimore.

It's like, sure, you can risk here with Mike Evans actually having his first game, good game ever against Marcus Lattimore, or you can just play the, this guy over here that is probably gonna score more points. And so I think just being willing and, but looking for the, the best play that week individually

Blaylock: Yeah, we as dynasty managers look, you know, years ahead, sometimes as many as five or six years out, and sometimes forget that this is still a weekly game. That the only thing you can win is what's right in front of you, and it is a weekly lineup. And that dynasty rankings are, are fine for, you know, looking at trades and trying to evaluate future moves, but they're useless i- in a weekly game.

You need to go over to, uh, the weekly rankings or pay attention to what's going on on DFS and where people are, are fading players and not fading players. And some of these other formats have a lot of information that dynasty managers can be utilizing. Uh, and seeing kind of where those rankings are, are different from each other provides opportunities, uh, for you to, to really get some value that your other league mates are not paying attention to because they are not looking at what's going on in DFS if they don't play it.

Bell: Yeah. And, and I think that that's making dynasty content. We're starting in to get into the point of the year where it can be really hard to make dynasty content during the season, not differentiate from redraft content basically on, uh, the situation here. And so, uh, but, but playing those other modes of fantasy and just learning and, I mean, try IDP and you learn what corners to avoid or, or whatnot.

You, you can learn a lot from going in different directions.

Blaylock: Let's look at one other kind of scenario in terms of a, of, of, of how a rebuilding process for you, and this is what I'd call the cupboard is bare. You, you picked up an orphan. Their WR1, maybe it's Chris Godwin, maybe it's Quentin Johnston, maybe it's Michael Wilson, may- maybe it's Michael Thomas.

You know, what, what-- How do you start picking up the pieces from, uh, just a wide receiver room that is useless?

Bell: Um, draft Jeremiah Smith. I mean, like to some... But I, I mean, it, it is like to some regard of you're, you're playing dynasty and, and I guess to some regard of, I guess what's your goal probably is part of it. Is, is the situation that you just wanna try to win right now? Because I mean, yeah, there, there are avenues towards get- going out and getting a Davante Adams or going out and, and I, I usually like to do those avenues with Derrick Henry basically of like, I'll wait, I'll wait till the, the team that's, that's, uh, losing and they need to get Derrick Henry off for something or like a player like that.

But I mean, that's, that's certainly not-not a way to play it, I guess to some regard. I don't love advising that because I think it leads into basically people exaggerating the problem and, and making it like even worse because they're trying to play it as redraft and then they realize, well, that didn't work and also now I don't have anything on this team at all.

And so that's where I think to some regard, if you're really truly playing dynasty, I mean, you gotta tank, I think to some regard on fixing some of those long-term problems and you've gotta try to... It can be, it can be kinda fun to tank because there, the pressure's off to some regard but also y- it opens you up to having more flexibility and being able to take more chances and cycling players through on a roster.

The problem that you run into, though, with situations like that, again, is a dynasty where you've probably, if the, the team's that bad and there's probably another team in the league that that's bad, there's only so many good players. There's only so many top 60 players, and more often than not, you've got one or two of those teams that have consolidated those assets to be able to put those other players in that position and, and you're stepping into, you kinda have to lean into the timeframe a little bit on hit those early picks, get that good basis and, and then build the value up from that point.

And, and it's, I think it's so interesting where we are now with Dynasty because it's changed a lot, like in the last five years and before that. And it used to, when I first started playing Dynasty, it baffled me because you would have the 28-year-old, the 29-year-old star receiver would get traded for a first-round pick and an established young player.

And it's like, this is just going backwards a little bit on like where this pick is landing of, of... But the way that it was, was rookie picks were viewed as more of a chance, less of a guaranteed thing and less of immediate production. You had to use that rookie pick and still wait two years to see if that player is actually gonna be good.

I mean, Derrick Henry, again, is an example of that. He didn't do much. People were, were writing him off before he really clicked in and became this player that we know. And then it was really around 2020, '21 where you had the '21 class, Ja'Marr Chase coming in, J-Justin Jefferson in the '20 class, like changing and producing immediately at unheard of levels.

And then Puka Nacua coming in '23 on top of it. And so I think that you ran into that creating the situation where those picks became that much more valuable and that much harder to acquire

Blaylock: Yeah. I mean, y- y- I think you've kinda hit that. It's really funny what trades we used to make 'cause we, we didn't value those rookie picks in quite the same way, and we still run into that because people in different leagues and different situations do value their picks differently. They're, they are an asset I think that's even more volatile and more capable of swinging value-wise, uh, depending on who's holding it than, than even the players do.

'Cause the players at least have some sort of track record of production. Um, but the picks are just chances really at, at, at potential future production, which could come next year, or it could come three years from now, or it could come never. A- and that's, that's the chances. I think for me the, the, the, the key, and it's, it's been a theme that's woven through this even if we haven't used the exact words or it's just have conviction and then follow that a- and do that.

And yes, you're gonna be wrong, probably a lot. Uh, but if you take enough good educated chances, you're gonna be right enough to make that work, and then you just really kind of at that point need one more to work for you and you are a contending team. Even if you start with a cupboard that's bare, uh, in wide receivers, you just may not be a contending team this year, but you just, you just need to string a few things together.

You don't have to get everything right and be perfect about everything. If you take a step backward, it's fine. It means you get a, the, you get the Jeremiah Smith of 2030. That's fine. You know? Nothing wrong with that.

Bell: Yeah, exactly. Having that flexibility and, and leaning into, but really everything's about value and being able to take the risks to capitalize on the value

Blaylock: What would you say, Jeff, what would you say is the biggest mistake that dynasty managers make when they're trying to upgrade their wide receiver rooms?

Bell: Biggest mistake that they, I mean, the, the biggest hypothetical on paper, the biggest mistake is trading a first-round pick to go from Puka Nacua to Ja'Marr Chase is the, the probably just about the, the biggest mistake that you, you can make. And, and I think the other, the other part of it is, is when you get these 27 classes and liquidating it to the level that you can't even rebuild off of it to some regard, too.

Um, but I, I, I think it's probably playing for the now too much and not recognizing that there is ways that you can play for the now without playing for the now too much. It is probably looking at it that way of being willing to, if you've got this hole here, not trying to throw three first-round picks and whatever else to definitively solve it, but you go out and get Davante Adams and you're putting him into your starting lineup weekly, a big upgrade there in that regard.

And so I think it's... And, and overall, I think the biggest mistake I think right now of what we're seeing in dynasty is the '27 class is just blowing things up and making people inflexible on what you're trying to do and not recognizing. The other part of it, I think too, is a situation where like Rhamondre Stevenson.

What's the long-term value on Rhamondre Stevenson versus if you've got somebody coming and, and you've got a hole at their running back too, and they're trying to solve that hole, like, like not trying to sell Rhamondre Stevenson for the ceiling of Rhamondre Stevenson, but recognizing that you're in an opportunity right now where you could sell him for that or last, last season, and not taking those opportunities of, of holding out too much because this is what the market dictates it is, or I'm married to I need to get a second-round pick here and not recognizing, hey, this is a player with, with short-term temporary value that a year ago I couldn't even gotten off of my roster if I wanted to, and now I can get, get value for him and not capitalizing those windows.

Blaylock: Jeff, if, uh, i- if someone has been with us through the little hour and 10 minutes or so we've been chatting, if a manager is just gonna take one thing away from, from our conversation, what, what should it be?

Bell: Fantasy football is volatile and live and be comfortable in the volatility. Embrace it and recognize that ceiling outcomes are what decide weeks more often than not. Um, and probably, I, I just think playing it down the middle is not a, a very good way to approach things.

Blaylock: You know, when Alan Seslowsky was on a few months ago, he, he kept describing it as he wants to be the one that runs into the burning building because that's, that's where that value is. And occasionally you do get scorched, but sometimes you, you end up with some really good assets on that. Well, Jeff, this has been really wonderful.

It was great to see you in three dimensions a couple weekends ago. Now getting to see you in two dimensions. You get to see you in two dimensions again in about five minutes. Uh, but before we do that, tell everybody where they can find you and reach out to you if they have questions about their wide receiver rooms.

Bell: Yeah, you can find me on, on Twitter @4WhomJBellTolls and other social media at well-- as well @4WhomJBellTolls. And then everything is exclusively through Footballguys. So if it's not coming out through social media, it's coming out through Footballguys

Blaylock: All right. And thanks everybody for watching, whether you're watching on YouTube or tuning in on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast platform. Uh, please give us, uh, the likes and the subscribes. Uh, dropping a, a review and a five-star rating on Apple would really help this show grow. And, uh, let's stay-- So be sure to stay tuned 'cause next week we're gonna have yet another outstanding episode of Dynasty Compass.

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