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Buy Hold Rant - Stocks and Investing
Buy Hold Rant is a fast paced investing podcast that cuts through the noise of the markets. Each episode dives into stocks, company earnings, and the market moves that actually matter.
Hosted by Hamid Shojaee and Dustin Alper, the show breaks down their latest investments, the thinking behind every buy and sell, and the surprises that shake markets in real time. Insightful, opinionated, and refreshingly honest, Buy Hold Rant is where real investors talk markets without the fluff.
Buy Hold Rant - Stocks and Investing
Ep 41: $MU $1.6k Target Too Low? SpaceX Numbers, $RACE New EV, $IMAX Sale
Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.
In this week's episode of Buy Hold Rant, hosts Hamid Shojaee and Dustin Alper are back with a full agenda, from Rivian's ($RIVN) launch announcement of the R2 on June 9th to Micron's ($MU) unbelievable surge to the potential effects on Rocket Lab ($RKLB) related to the upcoming SpaceX IPO.
🔥 The guys discuss:
💾 Micron surges toward $1000
🚀 Rocket Lab keeps climbing
🛰️ What happens to Rocket Lab if SpaceX launches an IPO?
🚗 Rivian announces the R2 launch event for June 9
🐎 Ferrari ($RACE) unveils its new EV and the specs are a major letdown
💰 Discussion on how to navigate the BEST times to sell stocks like Rocket Lab and Micron
🤖 Hamid answers: “What would you say to Elon Musk face-to-face?”
🎧 Listener questions answered (as always)
NOTE: This content isn't investment advice. Always do your own research.
Don't forget to check out:
The Best (and Free) Earnings Calendar: https://earningshub.com/
Hamid's Savvy Trader Portfolio: https://savvytrader.com/Hamid/my-actual-portfolio
Dustin's Savvy Trader Portfolio: https://savvytrader.com/dustin/rvr
#micron #rivian #rivianr2 #rocketlab #tesla #ferrari #techstocks #stockmarket #investing #investingpodcast
Holy macro, Dustin. We got so many things going on. Micron is going parabolic. Rocket Lab continues to go parabolic.
SPEAKER_01We have Ferrari trying to release an EV, and it has completely uh taken the internet by storm, but not in a good way. There's there's like so much to talk about today.
SPEAKER_03And we have breaking news from Rivian as well to hit on. So a lot to discuss.
SPEAKER_02Should we start with the breaking news? Or well, actually, why don't we talk about the agenda first and then we'll jump on the website?
SPEAKER_03I mean, you just basically hit the agenda. We're gonna talk about Micron, we're gonna talk about Rock Lab, we're gonna talk about Ferrari, and we're gonna talk about Rivian and more and listener questions. So if you have any questions, feel free to put them in the chat. Uh okay, let's talk about the the breaking news. So Rivian just announced that R2 launch day is officially uh June 9th, and I have it pulled up on my screen here. So, what does this mean? This means uh that there are going to be order invites officially being sent. First customers are going to get their deliveries, and demo drives begin. And there's a whole, they have a whole website and breakdown um of who's going to get invitations first. It's gonna they're gonna bias towards current R1 own owners and um customers where they have leases expiring. So there's going to be a a place in the Rivian portal where you can put your lease information. So they'll try to expedite your order. Um, and once your Rivian is ordered, it's going to be delivered within two to six weeks. That's what they're claiming. Okay.
SPEAKER_02Um, so so wait, are they saying that the deliveries themselves are going to start June 9th? Or that people will be able to place their orders?
SPEAKER_03They are saying it's going to start June 9th, but they're also saying that's when orders are going to start. So I don't know if like certain special customers are going to get theirs delivered that day who have already been able to place an order, like maybe early access, or if uh it's at no one's actually getting a delivery on June 9th and it's happening two to six weeks later. Uh that that part was a little unclear. I I'm gonna I'm gonna say for the PR for PR purposes, they're actually gonna do some deliveries on June 9th, would be my guess. Uh okay. But and this is a physical event or virtual?
SPEAKER_02Like are there gonna be people present?
SPEAKER_03I don't I don't I don't know if there's an actual event associated with this, or it's just like okay, orders are going out, and maybe they'll do some promotion on on uh their Twitter account, their X account. Um I'm not sure.
SPEAKER_02Okay, so there's some ambiguity there. Well, we might have to uh get some clarity on that later on. But uh Ribbian uh continues to be an exciting company for me. I mean, I mean what you you know Ferrari releasing their race car or like their first EV at $650,000, but having the specs of this car like not even match the specs of like a Tesla Model S or the Ribbian R1T for like say zero to sixty is pretty incredible. It just shows you how difficult it is to make a great EV, right? Um because the specs from this race company essentially uh is that there's 0 to 60 on this Ferrari uh is two and a half seconds, which is the same zero to 60 as the R1S quad, right? So you can have this like massive SUV that has longer range, uh similar sort of performance, over a thousand horsepower, um, and get it in an SUV package, or you can go with this uh ugly-looking Ferrari, which is kind of unbelievable. This is what they released, um, that uh that gives you similar performance at 650,000. Now, obviously, there's like other sort of prestige and uh aspects of Ferrari that makes Ferraris more appealing or whatever, but uh I am this just goes to show you how difficult it is to make a great EV, really. Like it's not that Ferrari is necessarily doing a bad job, it's just that it's hard, right? Um, so you know, uh this the release of this vehicle erased six billion dollars off of Ferrari's market cap, by the way.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, they were down like over six percent, right? Yeah, yeah. I you know, I it's funny. I am more positive on this Ferrari release. I think the exterior is not great. I think it was a bold choice to make blue the the default in all their branding as opposed to the red. I think the red looks just a little bit nicer, still not great, but nicer. Um but I will say I think the interior, specifically the console over here, is fantastic. I love it.
SPEAKER_02It's good. I I watched an interview with Johnny Ive actually on this huge trip. Uh it was with a I I actually don't know the interviewer's name, but it was a female interviewer. She does all these science videos. She's yeah, she's awesome. Yeah, it's Cleo. What's her Abrams? Okay, Cleo Abrams, huge of true. She's great. Okay, yeah, she's awesome. Um, but anyway, I was not impressed by like even the stances that Johnny Ive was taking. Like one of the things that he said on this interview was that um you you know, multi-touch in a car uh does not make any sense. And I was like, whoa, whoa, as a Tesla owner and driver for the past 10 years, if I did not have multi-touch on my screen to be able to zoom in and out, and like how else would you do it? Like, are you gonna want me to click a button to zoom in on a map? And his stance was that multi-touch is causing accidents uh in vehicles as opposed to no, it's sort of like preventing them because it's so so much more natural to just like move your hand over and zoom in on a map for trying to sort of like uh identify where you're going or uh something on a map. It it like it surprised me that he seems kind of out of touch, in my opinion. And this vehicle might embody how out of touch he might be, by the way.
SPEAKER_03I don't think he was saying multi-touches should not be in a car. It's I think he was more saying multi-touch shouldn't be the only way to interact with your car. Oh, he definitely said multi-touch causes death, and uh it does not make sense.
SPEAKER_02It was it was bad.
SPEAKER_03Right, but that's if it's the only thing in the car, right? So like if if I want to uh change the temperature or increase the fan or change the volume, and I have to go through a screen and I can't physically feel what I'm doing, and I have to look, he's absolutely right. That that's that's an issue.
SPEAKER_02But that would be like having a touch screen in general would be like that would be a position as opposed to multi-touch, which he was very specifically calling out.
SPEAKER_03I think that's just how he was I think that's just how he was saying it, being the amount of multi-touch. Like I think to him, multi-touch is a touch screen.
SPEAKER_02Um, but you know, no, but like Apple popularized multi-touch. I don't think that that that's accurate. We'll we'll have to go back and review that clip.
SPEAKER_03No, I think you no, you are right with what he's saying. It's just how we're both interpreting it is different. Um gotcha. Because really what he what he was getting at was they added, let me see. Can I zoom in more? Yeah, there we go. Uh, these physical buttons on the bottom. And I think the way he incorporated these buttons is incredible. Basically, they took the uh hole punch design that you have in an iPhone for the the notch up top, and on Azure phones it's just a little camera, and it he built the buttons directly into the screen for all the standard controls. And that this is the part that he he was really talking about is all this basic functionality should remain as buttons, it should not go on the screen. Where I will argue with him on is if a car is going to fully drive itself, then you can have multi-touch for everything and anything, because then you can look.
SPEAKER_02You don't need to be like how about we don't call it multi-touch? We're just talking about touch because that's where the what the the arguments around touch versus multi-touch. I mean, I agree, having buttons for certain things is probably a good thing. Um, but yeah, I think that's what it is interesting. Just having touch. Ford has tried to do something like that, right? With the knob and like some buttons inside of their screen. Um yeah, I'm kind of curious how that will pan out over time. I suspect the uh the path of touch only will win in the long run. I mean, obviously, Tesla has just gone completely touch-only, and Rivian has gone mostly touch-only. There's like some things that they give you controls over. Um but yeah.
SPEAKER_03Well, for Rivian solved this uh in the R2 with the new steering wheel and the the two uh like knobs or discs, uh, which I think is fantastic. I would love for Rivian to steal from what Ferrari is doing for this one instance and and build in some physical buttons into the screen. Um, I think it's a great solve. But again, if they're going to have fully self-driving vehicles where you're not going to need to look at the road, then it becomes a moot point. Um but if you are gonna drive, I do I do believe agree with Johnny Ive that you need you can't only have touch controls, or you shouldn't only have touch controls.
SPEAKER_02Um anyway, so for Ferrari has uh potentially a miss on their hands. We'll see how orders uh pan out and if they eventually cancel this product. It's it's difficult to make a good EV. In my opinion, they should have made something that would have beat the roadsters specs, the roadster, the original roadster that was announced eight years ago. Um, that would have been a pretty amazing something sub two second, zero to sixty, uh, in in you know, a two-seater dislike.
SPEAKER_03That's how you get Ferrari traditional announced the Roadster 2. Is if you could screw if you can beat the roadster, you that's how you get the roadster too. It's the same thing that when Rivian announced uh their uh AI product and Tesla didn't have one built into their car, like the next day, Elon was like, Okay, we're we're releasing this for uh Tesla's. That's right, rock inside of Tesla's.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, yeah, exactly. But um it's interesting for sure. I think uh you know, all of this to sort of like wrap it all up uh in terms of the EV space. I do think that um Tesla has moved on from cars, they're sort of like focused on other areas, Robotaxis and Optimus, and you know, that's their strategy, fine, whatever. Um, Rivian continues to double down on the vehicles and is in a great position. They're about to release another vehicle with the R2, so I'm sort of excited about that. Uh and uh Ferrari's entrance into the EV world is very lackluster and shows how difficult it is to make a great EV, even with the specs. I mean, just forget about the looks of it because the looks of it could have been designed differently to where it would have been very appealing. But the specs don't even match up to uh you know the um uh Tesla Model S beats it, like destroys it off the line, right? So it's kind of interesting to to have a vehicle that uh uh gets crushed by a hundred thousand dollar alternative. So um yeah, and and with longer range, with it, you know, obviously better software and all this other capabilities and full self-driving capability as well built in. So anyway, definitely.
SPEAKER_03Okay, let's talk about your portfolio. Uh you you tried to trip me up a little bit because right before we went live, you sold more Rocket Lab and you actually bought uh more Meta. So that's right. That's right. Uh I I don't think you bought Meta in a while, right?
SPEAKER_02I haven't no, I haven't bought Meta for a while. Uh largely because you know, you know, like my cash position was uh low before, but over the past couple of weeks, I've been uh uh Rocket Lab has just absolutely killed it, and I've been trimming a lot of Rocket Labs. So post Rocket Lab um earnings, I have now reduced my Rocket Lab position by slightly more than 50% collectively since before earnings to today. Uh and um now I'm comfortable with my cash position. So I started to uh take the cash that I sold from today's Rocket Lab sale uh and bought more Meta, which is getting even more exciting. So Meta also had an announcement today where um they are about to introduce subscriptions, paid subscriptions on uh Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. Uh and uh you know it's gonna be a whole new revenue stream for them. They're getting closer to releasing more and better AI products. And if anything, the anthropic SpaceX AI deal that uh Anthropic is apparently paying SpaceX over a billion dollars a month for the use of their data center. If it if that shows anything, is that if Meta is overbuilding AI capacity, there there will be additional potential ways to monetize that over uh overbuild out, if you will. So all of that data center capacity might also be worth tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue. This subscription revenue is potentially worth tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue. Uh their own AI products might be worth tens of billions of dollars of annualized revenue. So when you combine all of this stuff for Meta, uh I think they have a very clear path to uh substantially grow their revenue uh or or at least maintain the current pace of growth for at least four, five, six, seven years into the future. So um it just continues to be an exciting company from my perspective, which is why I bought some more.
SPEAKER_03What do you get for uh subscribing? Uh is it like AI features? I haven't looked into that actually.
SPEAKER_02I just saw that they are um they they are they might be releasing subscription, uh paid subscription-based programs, but I haven't actually looked in to see what what they're offering.
SPEAKER_03Gotcha. Um and then I guess let's just talk, and I know we hit on Rocket Lab every week because we're you're selling every week. Um, it crossed $150 a share. I remember feels like I don't know, two weeks ago when it was crossing a hundred dollars a share. It probably wasn't two weeks ago, but it feels that way. Um and that was it was it may have been less than two weeks ago. I mean, it was it's yeah, it's been insane. Um is is Rocket Lab just solely moving up in because of the excitement of the SpaceX IPO, or is there a lot of people?
SPEAKER_02Well, at 120 times revenues, this is sort of like where it gets into dangerous and high-risk territory, right? I I used to make fun of Palantir because Palantir was being valued at over a hundred times revenues. Uh well, guess what? It's no longer being valued at over a hundred times revenues. Palantir is down something like 40% from its highs, uh, despite crushing its most recent quarter, right? Um, and uh and it's still not a cheap stock, right? And uh this is sort of like what we're looking at with Rocket Lab is that it's not a cheap stock anymore. And uh a lot of its potential and continued growth for you know, now you have to keep going out further and further out in order to justify its current valuation. And um and and that just makes it really high risk. So with it still being, you know, like or it was about 20% of my portfolio, and it, you know, even as I kept selling because it would make new highs, it would remain at 20% of my portfolio. Uh today, I think as of close, it's like around 16% of my portfolio, and um, it's still pretty large, like that's a pretty high risk uh holding still. So I might reduce even more. Uh, but uh again, I still love this company. It's not that it's the company is not great, but you know, at 120 times sales, that you gotta you gotta weigh that in uh as to what's the risk reward factor. Um, whereas uh meta for for for me seems like a much better risk reward, you know, much lower risk and potential high reward if um if the market continues to crush it and everything goes up, meta should go up once it uh proves to the naysayers that hey it's it's a cash generating machine.
SPEAKER_03So SpaceX last week released uh their financials as you know, they're about to IPO. Um, and you did a great breakdown of it on X. But before I we get to that, I still want to talk about Rocket Lab a little bit. My concern is it's very clear SpaceX is going to be extremely overvalued when it IPOs. And I don't know if it's going to happen in the short term, medium term, long term. Eventually, SpaceX will correct to a certain extent um to be more in line with its results. I'm not saying it's going to be in line with its results, but it's going to, it's eventually going it, it has to, um, as all things kind of do, correct up or down. Um, my concern with Rocket Lab is when SpaceX decides to correct Rocket Lab, it'll bring Rocket Lab back down with it.
SPEAKER_02Um it might, yeah. I mean, first of all, it's that's not a statement of fact. Like it doesn't have to correct, right? Like Tesla, like a lot of people have been waiting you know for years for Tesla to correct, and it hasn't corrected, despite the fact that Tesla's revenues are down year over year for the past couple of years, and Optimus keeps getting pushed out further and further, and uh Robotaxis keeps getting pushed out further and further, and yet Tesla is still a you know one and a half trillion dollar company. So there technically SpaceX doesn't have to correct, right? But when I saw SpaceX's um filings and actually saw the uh revenue and um the lack of revenue growth, because in all of 2025, SpaceX had grown um at just 33 percent, which is basically on par with like how fast Meta is growing today, right? But making it even worse is that in the first quarter of this year, they only grew at 15%. So the the uh growth rate has even slowed down for SpaceX. So that was a major surprise. The collected collection of all of the revenues combined was only 18 billion. I thought that um they had significantly higher revenue than 18 billion. Uh, if in fact, I thought just the um SpaceX and that the launch business and the uh satellite business, meaning Starlink, I thought those two alone were in the 20s. Um, you know, there was sort of like these rumors that they're in the $25 billion revenue run rate. But it turns out that those two businesses combined with the space XAI business, which is only $3 billion, um, all of it combined is only 18. And then the space XAI business, or that that's the combination of Twitter, uh XAI, Grok, all of that combined is only a $3 billion business. When Elon bought Twitter, Twitter was a $5 billion business. So in the past three years since he's bought that company and added the AI capabilities and grok and the sales of these additional subscriptions, he's basically managed to reduce Twitter's revenue by 40% over that time period. So by all measures, when you look at the sort of like SpaceX financials, this is a massive disaster, like in my opinion, right? Like not financial advice, obviously, but this is a massive, massive disaster. Like no one thought that they were this bad. Um, now there's one saving grace, and that is Anthropic, the company that Elon Musk has been making fun of for the past you know year, uh, has come out come out as their saving grace and made a deal with XAI to rent their unused data center because they don't need it, nobody's using their product, for one and a quarter billion dollars per month of revenue for SpaceX. And if you annualize that, that's like roughly $15 billion annualized revenues. So this one anthropic deal is worth almost as much as all of SpaceX, XAI, Twitter, Grok, Launch Business, Starlink combined. This one contract, right? And that is their saving grace. It's it you could have never, I could have never predicted that uh this that SpaceX would actually be saved by Anthropic, the company that uh uh Elon loved to call Misanthropic. Um so it's just hilarious. One caveat here is that Anthropic or SpaceX can cancel the contract with 90 days notice. So, you know, uh they might have the last laugh after all if they if they choose to uh mess with Elon.
SPEAKER_01That'd be Shakespearean. Oh it's it's just uh yeah.
SPEAKER_02And then and then and then you'll see the name calling really go wild by Elon if they do that, right? I mean, I would not want to touch SpaceX with a 10-foot pole uh at the at this price point. It's it's just you know mind boggling to me. Um the company is doing good doing great stuff, by the way. And its mission, I love like so much of what it's doing, but uh revenues, financials uh just don't add up. So it's it's very frustrating to look at the numbers.
SPEAKER_03Yeah. Okay, let's talk about Micron. Um Micron's also been killing it this week. It seems like it's mainly due to a new uh analyst rating from UBS. Uh let me pull it up here.
SPEAKER_02Well, over the weekend, before the analyst rating increased from, you know, I think $500 a share to $1,600. Like, look at this analyst go. Um, there's an another one. I didn't even see this one come in. This $675 to $1,200, almost $1,200. But yeah, uh the UBS analyst uh raised it from $535 to over $1,600 yesterday. Uh but over the weekend, we also had a speech by um the president who also touted uh Micron. And that was just like came out of nowhere and kind of a surprise. And a lot of people speculated that, well, wait a second, if if he owns Micron and he's touting it, uh, this might be a company that uh might get pumped. And then we saw the 1625 analyst upgrade from 525. I mean, what's price target 525 before?
SPEAKER_03He was also touting the the factory that they're building in New York, which makes sense being wanting yeah, wanting um um American jobs here. Um so it wasn't just like touting the company to randomly tout the company.
SPEAKER_02Um but I think it did come out that he owns uh some shares in it, if I'm not mistaken. Oh, does he? Because like he owns a bunch of tech companies now, um, and I think Bikon is one of them.
SPEAKER_03Yeah. So going back to this uh UBS analyst, I believe the last time uh he changed his target, it was like maybe 510 before or something around there, and then he upgraded to 535, and now there's had this huge jump, huge revelation of um $1,600 uh dollars a share. Uh so what are your thoughts on the the price target itself and the market's reaction?
SPEAKER_02Well, I think the price target is finally something that seems reasonable to me, right? A $1,600 price target uh seems reasonable. Uh that that does not seem out of line. The fact that he went from $525 to $1,600 is where like I lose a lot of respect for the person, but um for the analyst, but uh but let's just look at Micron for for just stepping back and saying, okay, like is Micron again having crossed $900 a share over a trillion dollar market cap, is it an overvalued company? And here's the way I would answer that question is how many companies do I know that are expected to have over $100 billion of profits in the next 12 months that are trading at less than a trillion dollars? Do I know of any? Uh and the answer is no. I know of zero companies. Um, the the in fact, the cheapest one of all the companies that I know that is going to make over a hundred billion dollars of profits is Micron. So um, you know, Micron is trading at a PE that's similar to uh the PEs of retailers, right? Like uh the um gaps or you know, like the the retailers are traditionally like very low uh revenue growth and you know, not tech. And uh tech generally gets a much more uh lucrative price earnings ratio or price sales ratio, uh, and generally they're growing faster. So and of course, Micron is getting this lower number because of the criticism that memory is cyclical and it's a commodity and anybody could make it. But it turns out that you know the cyclical factor, uh even if true, nobody knows when the cycle will end. Um, and when it ends, that might be that you know the music stops for a lot of different companies, not just the memory makers. It might stop for AMD and Intel and Nvidia and Broadcom and you know so many others. So uh the cyclical argument doesn't hold water for me, and then um and then the commodity factor, the fact that the only three companies make it in order to make the memory chips, you actually need hundred billion dollar uh investments into uh factories that take many years to sort of bring online and these clean rooms. So, you know, uh this is not something that uh is easily going to be um disrupted by some new entrance that we don't know about, right? So I continue to love Micron. I haven't sold any shares. Uh I probably will start trimming soon if it if it crosses the thousand dollar mark, but I fully expect to maintain the vast majority of the shares that I own. Um the only reason I would trim is just to again de-risk because it's already more than 30% of my portfolio. So yeah.
SPEAKER_03Has there been a stock recently that's been over 30% of your portfolio?
SPEAKER_02The one that hit over 30% a while back was um Robinhood, as it was climbing to you know, over as it was like going from seven dollars to over a hundred. Yeah, I think what it topped at like 150 maybe, yeah. Yeah, and I continued to trim as it was going up uh to to that price point.
SPEAKER_03Um, okay, let's talk about uh my portfolio. Bring it up here. So I made a big move yesterday, fully exited Ethereum. This was a huge surprise to me.
SPEAKER_02Uh yeah, uh because I thought you were a big fan, and uh, he he just sold a hundred percent. That's okay.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I'm a big fan of Bitcoin, and I back like when I was first getting into crypto, I was a big fan of Ethereum because there was a lot of promise with smart contracts uh and decentralization and whatnot. And that's like back in like 2016, that's like 10 years ago. Okay, you know, 10 years later, how much is there to show for it? And there's not there there are real use cases, but it's like if you're comparing uh smart contract adoption to versus AI adoption, it's very different stories, right? Right. So there's that piece. But even outside of the technology adoption, I the the reason why I'm invested in Ethereum, or the core reason is uh hedge against Bitcoin in case Bitcoin is not the number one cryptocurrency, you know, 10 years from now, 20 years from now, and it's and is it going to be Ethereum, which is currently the number two crypto uh cryptocurrency? Um and typically Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin every bull market uh that crypto has. But in this last bull market that we had um last year, Ethereum did not outperform uh Bitcoin at all. Uh Ethereum barely touched its previous all-time high from the prior bull market. So I was very underwhelmed with its performance. And it it seems like it being a hedge against Bitcoin is is not necessarily the smartest uh move at this point. Okay. Um I'm not saying I'm never gonna buy back in necessarily, but while we're in this uh crypto bear market, it doesn't necessarily make sense to to hold. Um, and as you know, I've been slowly uh reducing my crypto exposure. So I rather sell my Ethereum than sell uh the Bitcoin. Okay.
SPEAKER_02Did you end up buying something else or is it just cash now?
SPEAKER_03No, I I didn't, and it's just cash now, but my cash position before I made this sale was basically at 10%. And I think we talked about this last episode. I'm look I want my cash position to be around 10 to 15 percent. So it was getting to the lower end. Uh so it was a little bit of a replenish. And now my cash position is like 13 and a half percent. Um very cool. Let me just zoom in here to my hairless Ethereum sales. So you can see I was selling. Um, I've been selling for the last few months. Um after it had this uh run-up in April, I felt like this was going to be a local top. Uh which it was. And I said in the comment when I sold it, I would I wouldn't be surprised if it just kept running, because you know, that just happens, but it didn't. So that gave me more confidence to make this move. Because I also wouldn't be surprised if you know it just does a U-turn right now and shoots up because that's that's what the market likes to do. Um do the opposite of yeah. But yeah, I I just think there's a there's a lot, I think there's potentially a lot more pain ahead before the next uh bull market. So I'm probably done um reducing my crypto exposure at this point. So right now, Bitcoin is 33% of my portfolio, and I count Robinhood as part of my crypto exposure, and that's roughly three and a half percent of my portfolio. So call it 36 36 roughly. Uh and I'm feeling good about that. So that was that was the big sale I made. Uh and then I didn't take any action here, but I did add a new stock to my watch list, which is IMAX. Uh now typically I I like to do one or two uh swing trades uh a year, which is not an investment. It's just a bet that I have like a decent amount of confidence in. I don't have enough confidence where I didn't do anything yet, but I do think IMAX is a very interesting opportunity. Um basically it came out that they're uh interested in potentially selling their business. The rumor is some companies that might be interested in buying them is uh Apple, Sony, Netflix, Amazon. Um if a deal were to work out, you know, this the stock would go up a fairly significant amount from here. And the stock did already jump uh from when this news broke, it it jumped, uh jumped 15%. Now, the thing with IMAX, let me see if I can hold this up, is their business for being in the movie uh industry is actually pretty good. It's been pretty strong. Uh revenue is up 12%, EPS is up 59%, uh P ratio of 26, PS ratio of five, market cap of $2 billion. Um if we compare this to AMC, AMC's market cap is roughly half, $1.2 billion. Uh their revenue's up as well, their EPS is up as well. Uh but I I was surprised to see that the market cap of AMC was half of IMAX, being that AMC is like the largest uh movie theater chain.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, that's that is surprising. But are you saying some because they're not profitable? Is that is that their deal?
SPEAKER_03Yeah. Uh yeah, they had a negative PE. And then with Warner Brothers, I just want to bring up because as we talked about on this podcast, uh Paramount is currently in the motion of acquiring Warner Brothers. Netflix was originally going to acquire them, and this is a $68 billion company right now, where IMAX is a $2 billion company. So this is a much smaller acquisition, um, which leads me to believe that it could potentially be an easier acquisition. Like I'm not, I don't think Apple would actually acquire them, but Apple could easily absorb this. Netflix could easily absorb this, Amazon could easily absorb this.
SPEAKER_02Um, IMAX doesn't have any uh theaters, right? Like they they provide the technology for the theaters. Is that what they do?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, they basically license their technology to theaters um to provide the iMacs experience. But I don't, I mean, the uh there might be some international IMAX-only theaters, if I remember correctly, but that they're not really in the theater business. Um I I I just thought it was a very interesting opportunity. I'm literally just watching it right now. Um, but if I do uh make a purchase, it will be for a short time frame. It wouldn't be for a long-term investment. And when I whenever I do this, I do I do a stop loss as well. Um so I'm limiting my my downside, which I don't do when I'm investing for the long term.
SPEAKER_02Very cool. All right, what else should we talk about?
SPEAKER_03I think we're ready for some listener questions.
SPEAKER_02Uh all right.
SPEAKER_01Adrian, you want to come in and jump in and I'm here.
SPEAKER_00Can you hear me?
SPEAKER_01We can't. I hear you.
SPEAKER_00Okay, I switched to AirPods and I don't know. Sometimes they're a little dicey. So um we've got so many questions. All right, let's do it. We have a micron question. Um, but it's we kind of talked about this, but it's um sorry, we have I okay, here it is. Um at what price will you guys sell micron? We kind of talked about this, but I just want to make sure that we get it answered for this listener.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, that's a great question. So so for me, it yeah, Micron is undervalued even at $1,000 a share. But uh one of the things that um will happen once you know, or is already happening is that it is a very large percentage of my portfolio. So it's just a very high-risk thing, right? Like once it becomes um a massive portion of the portfolio, any kind of movement means the portfolio gets uh go goes up and down by by this whale, essentially, that's that's in my portfolio. So um despite that, I I have been holding on to 100% of my shares. I haven't sold any. Um, I do expect to trim uh over a thousand dollars a share. I don't know exactly when. Um, and if it doesn't hit $1,000 a share before its quarterly report, then I will probably just wait it out until after the quarterly report. Uh, unless things change. The things could change for a variety of reasons. Um, additional information, macro level, the stock market in general might be suppressed, or you know, like all kinds of things might affect my decision. And of course, you know, like I'm gonna do whatever I decide to do. It's not like I'm uh 100% committed to anything that uh any sort of like target that I'm uh voicing here. But um, but I don't expect to sell any shares under $1,000 a share. So that would be my perspective on it. And I'll let uh Dustin speak to it as well.
SPEAKER_03Yeah. So taking a step back, uh irrelevant to Micron, if I'm going to take profit in a position I own, I think about three different pieces. Uh the first is is has there been enough return for me to want to take profit? In Micron's case, the answer is a big yes, right? Um the next piece is is the allocation in my portfolio, the percent allocation completely out of whack or not? So right now, Micron, um I think it's like 4% of my portfolio. Let me say 4.7%. Not no, not at all. This could triple or quadruple, and it would still be uh fine. So that's that's a no. And then the third piece, unfortunately, but it's a reality, is I have to worry about taxes. And is this sale going to be long-term or short-term capital gains? Uh, do I have losses that are going to offset this? Um and at the moment, this is but this would be a long-term capital or short-term capital gains uh for me. So that would also be uh an X. So when I think of those three pieces, ideally two of them are a yes at a minimum. It would be great if three of them. Right. Yeah, right, exactly. So um at the moment, even if Micron keeps going up, I'm probably not going to be selling here because there's not enough reason for my specific uh circumstance uh to be selling.
SPEAKER_02Actually, though those are first of all, that's a fantastic way to look at it. I love the way that you broke it down into the three different things. And for me, the tax thing is also a major consideration as well, because that makes a big difference. Uh, but in micron uh in particular, even though it's short term, I own a significant portion of my micron shares in my IRA. So selling them in my IRA in particular would not have a tax consequence. So that would be a no tax consequence, and therefore that goes out of the picture. But you're right. If if it was if I was holding them all in non-retirement uh accounts, then uh there would there would be short term, and I would probably want to hold it longer uh because of that. So past the one year, one year mark for which for me will be December 29th. Um, yeah. But it uh uh for me it checks the other two. It it has tripled my almost tripled my average uh purchase price, and then it is a pretty wacky percentage of my portfolio at 30 31 percent. Yeah. So um, all right. Um what else do we have, Adrian? Yeah, let's do it.
SPEAKER_00Another micron question. Will micron hit 50 billion in a quarter by Q2, Q3, or Q4 next year?
SPEAKER_02I assume this is 50 billion in revenue. So their their estimate is that um they this quarter that we're in right now, they expect to have about 32 billion in revenue. Um, and they're likely going to beat that, by the way. So uh last quarter they were expected to have 18 and they came in at 22. Uh this quarter they're at 32 and they might come in at who knows, 33, 35. Your your guess is as good as mine. Um, and then uh what they died for the next quarter or the next, let's say, three quarters is kind of unknown. We we do know that they're at capacity. So um any sort of like increases in revenue might be a result of price increases in memory demand, um, which is obviously positive for Micron, but it's kind of hard to determine whether or not they're gonna hit 50 billion revenue in a quarter. So let's go to the next question.
SPEAKER_00Okay. Um this one's a really fun question for Hamid. Um sorry, we are I can't believe that. Spence is killing me. I know, I know.
SPEAKER_01She's building it up over here.
SPEAKER_00I'll just I'll just tell. What it is. Hamid, if you had a chance to meet what Elon one-on-one for two minutes, what would you say?
SPEAKER_02Oh, I have no idea. I mean, like I I have met Elon uh uh before and I've talked to him, uh asked him questions. Uh in it, in fact, I think it was at the um both the autonomy day uh back in 20, I was saying 19. Um or maybe it was twice. Yeah, somewhere in that time frame. And there was another event that I was also at that um uh I was able to ask some questions. I mean, it sort of depends at uh uh at the moment, right now. Like I think he's just being an ass, and I like I don't like his behavior. Uh I had huge respect for him. I have huge respect for what he's done, but um uh you know, I think that he hasn't conducted himself in the appropriate ways uh over the past few years, and it's kind of unfortunate to see. And he continues to double down on over-promising and under-delivering uh lately, which uh didn't ever used to be the case, despite you know being late. Uh, but now being late has become ridiculous, and the promises just keep increasing despite being late.
SPEAKER_03So yeah, I would ask him to come on by Hall's grant to get more time with him, which is basically like asking a genie for more wishes, but it wouldn't be one question that I what I'm dying to know the answer of what Elon says.
SPEAKER_00But okay, here's the next one. Do you recommend to do profit taking on days like yesterday for Micron that it went up a lot and buy again the next day?
SPEAKER_02Well, how do you know that the next day won't go up more? It it ended up doing the exactly that. The next day it went up more. So profit taking makes sense uh to me, for me, when again, it's those three criteria that uh Dustin laid out. Has the has it gone up enough to where I want to take profits? Is it a disport disproportionate portion of my portfolio where it now presents a high risk for my portfolio? And what are the tax consequences? So um that's the way to uh that's what that's the way I actually think about it. So it's it's funny because Dustin sort of like laid out exactly how I just naturally think about it, but I love the fact that he sort of like labeled it one, two, three, yeah, too much. Yeah. It's it's it's great. But uh, but yeah, that sort of simplifies it.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, and one thing I'll add to that is when I typically take profit, I I'm not planning on buying back in. There's always a possibility that I do, and I've done that before when there's a decent correction and it makes sense. But typically my mindset is if I'm if I'm taking profit, I'm not buying any more shares of this company. That cash is to go to some uh some other position.
SPEAKER_02100%, 100%. And of course, things can change because you know, for example, um, I I took a huge amount of profits in Meta over uh a one year, one and a half year period of time before I started accumulating it back up again because things changed, right? Like Meta started making all this investment in AI, and their revenues grew even faster than I was expecting them to grow. And uh, and then there's now undervalued, in my opinion. So uh I took a lot of profits in Meta previously, but then now I'm like buying it back at even higher prices than what I took, what what I sold it at.
SPEAKER_00So you ready for a new one?
SPEAKER_02I stood.
SPEAKER_00Okay, this is for Hamid. For Hamid's portfolio, it does have missed price gems like Meta and Micron, but other feel like wild bets with no profit like Rivian or Bumble, low mode in my view. Care to explain the selection process?
SPEAKER_02Um so let's uh let's take a step back and just look at how I invest in general, which is that uh I I look to buy good or great companies at a good or great price. Uh and the combination of these things is what attracts me to a potential investment. Uh, and then I try to stay within areas uh that that I happen to know, which are like software and tech generally. Uh that doesn't mean I always do, but it, you know, I venture out every now and then. Um, so if we look at, for example, Ribbian, uh, it's a company that uh to me has a lot of technology uh that is very, very expensive to get into, meaning, like for anybody else to want to build what Ribbian already has, it would take them many tens of billions of dollars and a whole bunch of years in order to get that done. It's not something you can kind of snap the finger and like get it done very quickly, because you need huge manufacturing facilities, you need a bunch of research, there's like uh electronics, uh battery technology, software, like all this stuff has to come together and then vehicle design, putting it all together, having service centers, charging network, you know, you know, like you name it, these guys already have it in the same way that Tesla, for example, already has it. But Tesla is a $1.5 trillion company, and Rivian is a $20 billion company. So uh, or under $20 billion company. So when you look at it from the perspective of potential, um, the potential for Rivian, in in my view, is enormous uh because as the company uh becomes successful and actually hits profitability and takes the doubt away as to whether or not they will survive, then this company, in my view, will likely be 10 times or greater its current size. Um so a $20 billion company becomes a $200 billion company, and that's a 10x potential return uh for my investment, right? Um so from that perspective, Rivian is like very cheap. You know, so it that's the way I look at it. And then Bumble uh in a similar way is a company that actually is already profitable, uh, already has this brand recognition that uh uh is one of the leaders in the dating app world, uh, has over $900 million revenue run rate uh or previous uh uh years revenue. So, and it's profitable. So it's like generating cash every quarter, roughly $50 million worth. And this company is being valued at just $400 million. Uh and its closest competitor, which is like Match, uh in the same business, for every dollar of revenue that Match has, it's being valued at roughly um per share, three dollars of um market cap. For every dollar of revenue that Bumble has, it's being valued at 40 cents. So there's a huge discrepancy there, like approximately a six or seven time discrepancy, meaning uh for every dollar of revenue, Bumble is six or seven times cheaper than Match is. Uh, and therefore, Bumble is a very attractive investment from my standpoint. And uh if uh if Whitney, the founder and CEO, figures out how to turn this company's revenue around, there's a good chance that Bumble, you I mean, we could see up 50% in one day and up 150% in a month, type of type of numbers. That is a possibility in terms of like what the future of Bumble might be if they can turn around. And to me, that's a very uh attractive thing uh from an investment standpoint, because uh I'm making making essentially bets that I expect to have asymmetric returns, meaning like worst case scenarios, Bumble goes bankrupt and goes to zero, right? That's it cannot go below zero. I can't lose more money than I have put into it uh because I'm not leveraged. Um but the upside potential, especially if the turnaround is a success, is huge. And to me, those are like 50-50 possibilities of outcome. So uh I could potentially 10x my money on Ribbian and Bumble, or you know, worst case, I it goes to zero. And they seem to have like equal odds if I was trying to predict them.
SPEAKER_00So ready to move on.
SPEAKER_03Justin, did you have any commentary on that? Or well, I know we have a lot of questions. The only thing I was gonna hit on was um that uh the listener mentioned that they think Bumble has a low moat, which I would disagree with. Uh like Bumble needs a very uh sizable network to work. Um, so it's very difficult to disrupt these players. That's not to say it doesn't have competition because it certainly does, um, but it's not like uh like a calculator app you could just use by yourself and it's gonna bring you value. Bumble and these dating apps only work if there's a very large network. So I think 100% have a sizable moat.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, that's a great point.
SPEAKER_00Ready?
SPEAKER_02Yeah.
SPEAKER_00Okay, more talk about Rocket Lab. This listener says, at what point would you buy more Rocket Lab based on when it is less percent of your portfolio and when or when it's less in price?
SPEAKER_02For for me, um I would be interested in Rocket Lab again if the price of this uh stock went down substantially or if it even stayed flat, let's say, but the performance of the company continued to be incredible. And then, like three years from now, who knows? It might still be at the similar sort of price, except now it has 4 billion annual revenue run rate or 5 billion annual revenue run rate, and it has de-risked a lot of it, you know. Um, and that would be uh far more interesting than um than paying 120 times current uh revenue run rate.
SPEAKER_03So yeah, for me, I don't know if there's a specific target for either of those numbers, but that is the right way to think about it, in my view. Um, but like I said earlier in the episode, if there's a large correction with SpaceX that brings down Rocket Lab, wherever it kind of lands, I'll be definitely interested at that point. Um, not necessarily buying, but interested. Agreed.
SPEAKER_00Ready for another one?
SPEAKER_03Let's do it.
SPEAKER_00Do you think AI will strengthen or disrupt established software leaders like Adobe? And is the market underestimating or overestimating that risk?
SPEAKER_03Justin, why don't you take this one first? Yeah, so I did a whole uh blog post. You could find it on my um Twitter account about this. Um I'll start with no one's able to predict this, no one knows. Um, like for Adobe specifically, people were, I think, overestimating how AI will disrupt their business. Then they started integrating the features within their own products and making their products better, and then um, and then I think investors were were uh more uh delighted with what Adobe can do with AI. And I think that the risk reward is kind of swaying back and forth. Um, and this is specifically for Adobe. I think overall, um we're we're very early stages with what AI can do. And my base assumption, which again could be wrong, is that AI will be able to replicate any software that doesn't have a real mode. So, like Adobe is an example that doesn't have a real moat if the moat is only the code. Because in theory, AI could build the entire thing for you. Um so I I there is concern there. That doesn't mean Adobe's business is dead. Like there's not every user is going to want to build uh their own video editing software with AI. Um, and there's an element of you know uh taste and functionality and um just general product management that you kind of miss by not going through um a proper software development company. Um but there will be uh a certain percentage of their users that do move away um and build their own software in the far future. Because we're not there yet.
SPEAKER_02They don't necessarily have to build their own software too. They can just be like asking, can you edit this photo and do this this that right? I'm I'm thinking video editing specifically, but you're so right. Oh, right. Yeah. Yeah. Uh well, even with video editing, technically, you could have these uh AI tools eventually have video capabilities as well, where you just upload the video and say, can you make these edits for me?
SPEAKER_03I've I've thought so much about this specifically. Like literally, you upload all your footage, you upload the script, it just puts it all together for you. And then and then you just have a conversation with the AI of like, oh, let's do this, let's do this. You could you could create takes that don't exist because they'll just be able to generate the takes. Right. Like it's gonna be insane.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I won't have to show up to these podcast recording. I'm just kidding.
SPEAKER_03You know, it just came out, it just came out uh uh YouTube's gonna start auto-flagging AI generated content. So we need to be better about being real and not AI.
SPEAKER_02That's funny. Um, I I just looked at Adobe. I hadn't looked at them for a long time, and uh, I'm I'm shocked that their price earnings ratio is around 11, which uh which is wow, wow, that's really cheap. So yeah, that um the disruption risk is real, but how it plays out and how Adobe sort of like manages uh, and not just Adobe, that's true for Salesforce and others as well, um, navigates through this maze will be interesting to watch. But so far, there none of their revenues, none of the software companies' revenues seem to have been hindered significantly, at least. So uh we'll have to wait and see what happens. Jensen believes that uh the uh the hit on the software industry is uh like overblown, meaning like it he he thinks that they have a very bright future and um and that they're gonna continue to thrive. So um, all right, let's do a couple more.
SPEAKER_00Okay. Um please talk about Intel. Are we sleeping on this one?
SPEAKER_02Well, let me pull up Intel for uh those who are interested. So and and tell you why, like I haven't touched this. Um, so you you know, some people will look at a price chart like this and say, well, it has already gone up 500%, and therefore that's the reason I won't touch it. Well, if that was my reason, then I shouldn't want to touch uh Micron, right? Like it has gone up uh almost 900%, and I'm still saying that it's undervalued. Uh and I bought it uh when when did I buy it? It when I bought it over here, it had also gone up like four or five hundred percent. So that's that's not the reason I am not a huge proponent of Intel. Uh I'll tell you why. Uh their revenues are growing very slowly. Um, in the past year, they've only grown roughly 1%. Now there's a good chance they'll grow faster in in coming years. Um, but uh there they have a uh trailing 12 month PE price earnings ratio of 213, a forward price earnings ratio based on projected next 12 months of profits of 170. This is incredibly high for any uh tech company, not just uh one in the uh microprocessor space, but um uh you know if we were to look at sort of Nvidia's forward PE, so let's do this. Uh Nvidia's forward PE is 23, right? So this is uh to me way better deal than Intel. So why would I want to own Intel over Nvidia? Um and uh and then when I look at sort of like Micron, we're we're having a uh forward PE on Micron of just 10. Uh and to me, out of all of these, Micron is the best deal. So that's the reason I don't own uh Intel. Uh and no, I'm not sleeping on it, but uh I'm not as excited as the uh rest of the market seems to be about Intel.
SPEAKER_03On top of that, and we've talked about this in the previous episodes as well, but like personally, I don't like to invest in stocks that just overlap too much uh in what they do. And Micron and Intel technically are making different chips, but and I haven't looked into their their correlations, but I would assume that they they move somewhat similarly. Um and I would just want to be in one, um, but not not both, they're just too similar for me.
SPEAKER_00All right, let's take the last question. Yeah, we're here you go. This one's a fun one, too. Hi, Hamid and Dustin. Could you please start a 15-minute investing series on this channel? It would help us learn investing basics in a simple and practical way. I want to learn investing from you both.
SPEAKER_03Can it be 10 minutes?
SPEAKER_02Well, uh, you know, that that was sort of like uh part of the reason or impetus for starting this podcast to begin with, is just to sort of like show how we think about investing uh in general and um uh and talk about what we're buying and what we're selling uh and the reasons behind it, which which I think is equally important. But in terms of like um an investing tutorial as to like what does the number of shares mean or the market cap mean or price earnings ratio mean, um like a handful of core fundamental um investing ideas or concepts, I think that might be a one-time video as opposed to a series uh of videos, but uh but but but that one video might be uh anywhere from 10 to 30 minutes long to explain some of those core concepts. And I think that is something I eventually want to do. I just haven't put enough time and effort into it. I've written down some some ideas, but I haven't fully executed on them. And uh we'll go ahead and well, I actually, Dustin, did you have anything to add to there before we end this episode?
SPEAKER_03It's just easier to talk our own uh portfolios and what we've we're actively doing, as opposed to like planning uh like uh a series like this, or even if it's a one-time video, like it just takes a little bit more effort than hopping on uh once a week and casually talking about like what's going on in the market. Yeah, agreed.
SPEAKER_02All right, very cool. Well, another episode down. Thanks everyone. Thank you. Thanks for listening. Appreciate you guys. Bye.