#30. Buying the Dip(lomacy)

Episode 30 of the Poly Marks Podcast dives headfirst back into the Strait of Hormuz crisis, as the boys break down the latest rumors of a U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding, whether the ceasefire is actually real, and why prediction markets still seem convinced that global shipping is about to normalize. Andrew explains why nearly half his portfolio is riding on Strait traffic not returning by the end of June, while the crew debates whether the market is dramatically underpricing the logistical, political, and military obstacles still standing in the way.

From oil markets and strategic reserves to sanctions relief, IRGC financing, and the razor-thin line between “defensive” and “offensive” strikes, the episode explores how fragile the current standoff really is — and why even a signed agreement may not stop things from spiraling again. The guys also unpack the “permanent peace deal” markets, arguing over legal wording, temporary agreements, and whether Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran are simply too far apart for any lasting settlement to happen this summer.

Later, the conversation shifts into 2028 U.S. presidential betting markets, with speculation on Kamala Harris, Thomas Massie, Ron DeSantis, Wes Moore, Tucker Carlson, and why the best political bets might be names nobody’s seriously discussing yet. The crew debates whether prediction markets reward actual forecasting skill — or just timing, volatility, and surviving long enough for the narrative to flip in your favor.

The episode closes with NBA Finals chaos, Trump potentially attending games in New York, Israeli leadership markets involving Netanyahu and Naftali Bennett, and another reminder that betting on the future may still be easier than predicting it.

Transcript

SPEAKER_04 0:00

Well the the I mean I'm we can save it for the show, but like I mean like save it save for the pod, but like it just feels like an almost a known brainer. Like you're talking best case scenario we might still win. Right? And I don't I don't think it and I don't think I don't think a deal's getting done. It sounds like a deal is not getting done. Exactly.

SPEAKER_02 0:17

It's like but not only not only like do you have to thread all the needles of the uh the deal, but then you have to thread the needles of like international shipping and mariners and insurance companies. Lloyd has to back the insurance or America or somebody else has to back it. So it's like and then and then and then and then the individual people like the like the captain, the owner, the insurance company, and all the individual guys on the ship.

SPEAKER_01 0:59

All right, welcome everybody to episode 30 of the Polymarket Podcast. This is uh the big 3-0. This is your semi-weekly reminder that betting on the future is easier than predicting it. I'm your host, Joel, here with our brothers Matt and Andrew. We've got an exciting lineup this week. Obviously, we haven't been here for two weeks. A lot have been going on in Iran. Obviously, the economies have been affected as well. We want to talk about the elections. We also want to talk a little bit about Trump in the NBA finals, and then we've got our uh if you had to lined up at the end. But let's start with the Iran updates. Uh, Andrew, I know you've been monitoring the streets obviously closely, but what are your thoughts kind of channeling for the streets? Andrew's always monitoring. Oh, he's always monitoring it. Appreciate it. I know he's got the guys.

SPEAKER_04 1:41

What do we do if he's not monitoring?

SPEAKER_02 1:42

Finger on the pulse. Yeah. That was a stressful weekend. I uh there was a big dip in my uh whatever uh earnings for the let's say for the year. Uh I I was definitely down, but I'm back up after things rebrounded in my direction.

SPEAKER_04 2:02

But uh, why don't you give us a quick why don't you give us a quick recap, Andrew like so basically we're talking straight up from moves here, I assume when you're talking about a big chunk of your portfolio. Obviously, we know they were on the premises of a deal this weekend. That's when this the reporting basically really came out a lot about that, and that changed the market dramatically. Where are we at right now as far as where the market's rebounded to? And yeah, maybe give us the latest on what you think's happening with our friends in the Middle East.

SPEAKER_02 2:29

Yeah, so over the weekend it came out that they were close to a deal to get straight open. Um over almost half my portfolio uh is in the straits traffic returning to normal by the end of June. Um obviously the no, you're you're on the no for the I'm on the no side. Uh and for those who uh maybe haven't been listening, that means you're gonna have to have a seven-day rolling average of at least 60 ships passing through the straits, as noted and counted by the IMF Port Watch website, which publishes every week with the the news that the two parties were close to a deal. Uh the odds of over the weekend uh got almost as up to about 60 some or so that streets traffic was gonna return to normal by the end of June. I did a little bit of day trading. Uh once the the news came out on Friday, they were close to a deal, and then the framework of the deal was reported. It sure seemed like this was gonna be a JCPOA negative 2.0.

SPEAKER_04 3:51

Yeah, it seemed like bad, right? Like the the initial reporting was really bad for for Trump and the US government, basically almost saying like Iran gets everything they want, like there won't be an official deal with nuclear, and they're gonna get a toll, this new environmental environmental.

SPEAKER_03 4:05

Oh, yeah, not a toll, man. An environmental consultant.

SPEAKER_04 4:10

Canada's gonna be like, this is amazing. We're gonna start charging up on all our ports. Iran so smart. Um, but yeah, so we saw this language, and then obviously it turned around kind of quickly, and then from there we end up in this point, right, where now the market is resettled. They say they think there's a 40% chance that things are gonna turn back to normal in the next month. So basically they're saying it's about 50-50 whether they think there's gonna get a deal done and the traffic's gonna fully be able to return to normal. And I think maybe kind of focusing on where we're all at is we I think we all still like the no. I mean, I think one of the main things I think about is like we've talked about is even if the memorandum of understanding was to somehow get signed the next couple days, as it's been alleged, uh we're kind of close to doing, does not mean it's gonna get done. I think there's still a good chance, even if that was to happen, that they have language in there saying we'll still take 30 days to kind of figure stuff out.

SPEAKER_01 5:04

Well, and I think I think they basically said that specifically, which is like they're even as part of some of their agreements, they're announcing like, oh, well, even if we agree to reopen the Straits, it'll take a full month for things to get back to normal, right? And we we talked about the realities and and concerns of that. And again, I'm looking at the most recent portrayal, you know, port watch data, and the seven-day moving average is what, like six right now? Yeah, it's got a so 10x. And I don't necessarily look at with as much interest on the June market, which I think is at sort of uh if you if I were to be buying the nose, I'm paying 64 cents for June, right? It did spike up. I probably could have got it for 40 cents over the weekend. So kudos to you, and I wish I'd hopped on that, but uh, you know, it's like this the the June July one, July 31st, spiked up to 73% over that same kind of time frame and now has gone back only down to 60. And I'm like, you know, uh I I'm just gonna buy some some on that at the sort of 40% for the no, and I think I have a good shot.

SPEAKER_04 6:10

I think I think from a risk reward perspective, I actually like June a lot more. And I put another sprinkle down today because you you're talking you're still talking about almost doubling your money versus like, you know, 2.whatever fiving your money. And it's like yeah, whatever, 1.8. It's it's like if they get a deal done in the next week, like has been alleged, you'd have to think unless things majorly screw up, it is fine by the end of July. Do you know what I mean? Unless things are not really like like basically this this deal never gets done. So let's say you're 50-50 for the deal to get done, you know what I mean? Where with June, even if the deal gets done, I think you're still might win. So I just like it way better. I think the market's not properly allocating the risk because I don't think they understand the terms fully. Because we no one knows the terms, but if the recording is is good, then I like the like the bet much better better there.

SPEAKER_02 6:59

So it seems like the main sticking point in terms of getting straits traffic going. We we can talk permanent peace treaty and whether or not any of these negotiations will qualify for some of those, because I think I know we have some of those bets as well. But even if, again, yeah, memorandum of understanding, some sort of formal agreement where uh you know both sides agree to certain things. The sticking point for the Americans at least is they don't want to front any money, any rewards, any sanction reliefs, any anything until they see the stray traffic music moving and the Iranians are like, no, money up front, and then we'll talk. Give us 30 days.

SPEAKER_04 7:47

Right. That and that's and that's like the releasing of the funds, right? Because where the I don't even know where these funds are held, like, but this is like part of the JPCOA as well, where it's like, no, these fun these funds have been held, you know, through banking powers essentially, uh, not accessible to Iran, and they're just gonna essentially unfreeze them.

SPEAKER_02 8:05

The original JCPOA money was for stuff that like the Shah had ordered back in the 70s, and they still hadn't given the money back. Uh so I mean there there's all sorts of sanctions, money that's been floating around, and stuff that's been seized. There's all sorts of bargaining chips that uh Iran can ask for in terms of you know getting some money to the regime. And as as we talked about, the IRGC really only makes foreign currency through either two ways. A, smuggling, and b uh oil flowing through the Straits of Ormooth. So, yeah, as much as it hurts uh, you know, we talked about this a couple weeks ago, uh, to see the price of gas where it is after Memorial Day for people who want to start taking the road trips, uh, it's gonna hurt Iran and by extension China and the rest of Asia a lot more than it's gonna hurt American citizens. And I think Trump is aware that, like, hey, his poll numbers are slipping, midterms are coming up. Uh, and as much as he said today, like, I don't care about the midterms, uh, we're gonna get a good deal. I mean, the pressure is on him, but I think there's just as much pressure uh on the Iranians as well. And I think Trump has rightly realized that, like, hey, in this waiting game, he doesn't necessarily have he might not have you know the nuts, but he's still got a good hand.

SPEAKER_04 9:37

So where are you guys at as far as do you think this MOU um is getting passed? We can talk a little bit about um the idea um if there's gonna be a permanent peace deal by the end of July. I like to know for that. I think we should do that.

SPEAKER_01 9:52

Yeah, that's that's one of my I'm one of my well-performing markets is the permanent peace deal. Um yeah, you know, and do you guys like just on this memory?

SPEAKER_04 10:02

You think this anything's getting signed this weekend, or you think there's anything signed in the next week and a half? Like, like I just feel like um they're too far apart, but uh I mean who knows? It's because is this all kind of reporting on both sides trying to like gain the last few ounces? Like, who knows?

SPEAKER_01 10:17

Well, I mean, this this could go very smoothly into our if you had to on the permanent peace deal, uh, which is our week, uh our weekly market that we decided on here, which is the June 30th market. Right now, buying a yes is 43 cents, buying a no is 58 cents. Matt, if you had to, would you buy uh put a new dollar down on this June market on the yes or the no?

SPEAKER_04 10:40

Yeah, I I would do the no for sure. And there's um a couple of reasons. We could just do the quick recap and then we can get into a little bit more. But like I just think there's a good chance there's no memorandum of understanding. Even if they do sign that, it doesn't sell I don't as far as I can read it, we can go over the the lang legal language later. But like I as far as I read it, that wouldn't be enough. They need something, which is what they've talked about. They talked about they do the memorandum understandings and within 60 days they bring something to the Security Council that's more formal. I just don't see that that happening. I think there's a good chance we don't even get a memorandum of understanding in the next couple weeks in that we're literally kind of the standoff lasts longer. So that's what I that's where I'm at.

SPEAKER_02 11:19

Right. Andrew, if you had to. Uh the other thing we didn't talk about that happened uh Monday and was confirmed, I think, today. Uh Wednesday the 27th, here is that US struck uh some anti-air uh defense batteries along the coast, hit some ships that were supposedly laying mines. Um this is still on a razor's edge, and with both sides saying, like, hey, you guys are violating the ceasefire by doing X, Y, and Z. These are they do not know.

SPEAKER_04 11:56

I believe America claimed they claimed it was a defensive, offensive uh strike. You know what I mean?

SPEAKER_02 12:01

Yeah. So well, I think that I think uh Iran also knocked one of those Reaper drones out of the sky. I mean, I think as they've done uh to a lot of those.

SPEAKER_04 12:12

I mean, if Reaper Trump's coming in, don't you kind of have like an obligation to knock it out of the sky? It's like coming to kill you or blow something out, right?

SPEAKER_02 12:18

I'm not I'm not I'm not saying there's any morality.

SPEAKER_01 12:21

I think he's just saying he's just saying it's impressive because a lot of their stuff doesn't get knocked out of the sky.

SPEAKER_02 12:27

Yeah, I'm just saying that these are two parties that are still much always uh you know on the bayonet edge uh of fighting, and I don't see either party willing to sign. Again, I'm not sure how much we talked about this, but whether or not even a memorandum of understanding will qualify as a permanent peace deal.

SPEAKER_04 12:49

Look, Joel, why don't you why don't you do your lawyer talk and read over that for us? And let's read over the rules and then I'll give you my mine. If I understand it correctly, I think this is actually a market I might go pretty heavy in because I just don't see how it happens.

SPEAKER_01 13:02

Okay, it says the market will resolve to yes if Iran in the United States agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to no. And I want to I guess maybe kind of a little intro here in terms of how we've I've experienced it for the most part. I think for the most part, these markets, if they're gonna go or get a qualification later, it often goes on what the name of it, the market is and what were the first few lines describe. Um, and then it says eventually here, you know, peace, permanent peace still refers to any agreement, which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are specifically temporary, which do not have a definitive agreement to end military hostilities on a lasting basis will not qualify. Um, you know, so if they formally sign or formally adopt a written agreement or a treaty multi-point agreement, which meets the above criteria. But my sort of, again, kind of just first blush lawyerly take on this. And again, I would tend to favor the no on this market as well. I you know, I was I was tempted to just kind of say the yes on this uh just for for the for interest's sake, but I've already got some no's invested, and I'm uh I think if I'm putting new dollars in, I'm uh I would probably uh you know double up on the no a little bit more. And it's because I think I mean there's a few things. The first thing is it it seems to focus explicitly on military hostilities, right? So it's like maybe they don't get the full JCPO agreement, but they say, hey, we're permanently ending military hostilities. That's a possibility. But I think as we've acknowledged and said, I think there's gonna be a lot of issues because Iran, you know, is is like the the hutty badger at this point. They've been all riled up and it's like they're not gonna back down until they get what they want. They're always gonna want to charge these tolls or you know, put some limitations on the straits. And so I just I don't see it happening in terms of a permanent peace deal. But do you guys think I'm like interpreting the language wrong there? Or how do you guys see this in terms of how we've got the same way because these markets resolve weird sometimes, right?

SPEAKER_04 15:12

The memor the mer it could we could get screwed, but the memorandum of understanding will explicitly be for a certain time frame to renegotiate a permanent peace deal. And so I don't think that language qualifies in any sense of it. And so really what you're betting is is whether they will get to that stage too. You know, I mean it talked about little preamble. Like, I think they're just not only is America uh in Iran far off, I think Israel and Iran are even farther off as far as where they are, where they would just stop having open hostilities for each other.

SPEAKER_02 15:41

And so that was the other thing that uh fired up over the weekend we didn't talk about. It was Lebanon, right? Yeah, well, but specifically Beirut, right? Because Israel is always kind of there's that area south of whatever river that is kind of Hezbollah's territory that's supposed to be uh a demilitarized zone set up with and there's UN peacekeepers in there that don't do anything. But you know, they're stepping up their attacks on Beirut, the capital city. That's I mean, and and Iran's specifically explicitly said like any deal is gonna have to be sorted out you know between America and Iran is gonna have to encompass Israel and Hezbollah. So again, the moving pieces necessary to get them to a permanent peace deal are very complicated.

SPEAKER_04 16:34

I totally agree. I just I just doubled up.

SPEAKER_01 16:37

I was just gonna say, just did it live, uh, put a little more money on the gym. I actually took a little bit on the July, because again, I think you're there, there's some some decent odds there. And again, I think these time thing, this is going so slow. We always talk about five or six weeks, but that's you're into the end of July in five or six weeks or like middle of the.

SPEAKER_04 16:55

I mean, listen, I I think Anna's totally right. I think there's too many moving parts that even if they get to murmur and are standing, the idea that nothing's gonna pop off, like it probably will be some type of again, peace deal in Lebanon. You know what I mean? But again, all these things are temporary as soon as someone's fired from the other side. Like you see with Palestine or Gaza and Israel, you know, these things never make it to stage two. Um, yeah, I don't think they're gonna get the deal done. I think this might just be an excuse for America to kind of pull back and you know, it's just kind of be some permanent hostilities there. Who knows?

SPEAKER_02 17:24

And and the Jews, the Margots.

SPEAKER_01 17:25

Yeah, no, I was gonna say, well, yeah, let's let's transition a little bit into that. Andrew, I gotta say, you know, I've I've made I made some long bets on oil just because I was like, maybe, you know, Andrew's making all these wins. Uh I I I'm losing in terms of my assuming my July by it's a back out, but they're relatively small. But the economy does seem to have some type of implications. But again, we've the the recessions or the you know global real increases in you know critical minerals and oil uh just doesn't seem to have happened as much as or not on like a quick time scale, but I I kind of thought there would that strategic rester reserve stuff would play into that. So what do you guys think?

SPEAKER_02 18:06

I mean the way capitalism and markets work is telescope markets work. Well there's I mean there's there's so many there's so many moving parts, there's so many customers, so many inputs, so many people buying and selling up and down the chain throughout the world the markets can only react to the information that gets back to them, right? So it has to go down the the supply chain first and then that information comes back out. So, you know, when the the last tankers that have been able to get through the sturdy support moves are finally, you know, unloading all their um all the all their oil and you know tanks are running dry, people are running out of diesel fuel. When all these things finally sort of get back to the market, if again these markets aren't, you know, it's like that that uh Michael Burry and uh big short, right? It's like unless the entire thing is completely full of crap, like it it doesn't really make sense that oil's gonna keep going like oil's lower lower today than it was, you know, when when when the ceasefire went into effect, whatever it was mid-April, right? It kind of doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

SPEAKER_04 19:26

Well, I think it does. I think you're kind of mischaracterizing where you're saying they have to wait. But people are essentially making a prediction at this point, and the prediction is that enough people are betting this thing's gonna get solved here in the next little bit, and this whole thing's just gonna be a blip, and that bigger deals and more energy production coming out of Venezuela or whatever is gonna happen, and that's why you don't see. I don't see, I mean, again, like you can take the opposite side of the market, that's perfectly available. I'm sure lots of people are, but I think this idea that the information everyone knows what's not coming through. The market, as you see, as you see with you see with the SP, you see with other things, people are just I think that the assumption is we're gonna get something out of this. We might get a big deal with China and America as well, and things might just kind of pop off for a while.

SPEAKER_02 20:09

But I mean, if if who knows if we follow from our belief that the straits really aren't gonna get going again, we're still minus 10, 20 million barrels of oil per day that you know the that that isn't there. The demand is there, but there's there's there's no oil to fill it. I mean, the price has got to go up.

SPEAKER_04 20:32

I agree, but I guess I guess what we're saying is is we're betting against the market at this point, right? Um I don't think you're wrong. That I don't think you're wrong. I think I think it's only a reasonable position to take. I'm just saying the market is still that there's gonna mostly gonna figure out a deal. And I and I think I think our tenor that the market's probably slightly wrong about this or over realizing the possibility of a a full deal, I think is true. So I like all the time. I know this has been Andrew's bet the whole time, you know, along with Mania Out and some of the other winners we've had around this market. The ceasefire deal came a little early, but I guess, but uh like I said, our bet was always that this is gonna take a while and we're still in it. So the ceasefire really wasn't real, it was just kind of a bet loss, really, which is what really sucked at the other day. Like just kind of a bad bet. Um, okay, let's switch over to some of the presidential markets.

SPEAKER_01 21:27

I I just had a concerning realization, guys. What's that? What if betting on the future is harder than predicting it? Because we seem to predict the future some of these times right and then fail to bet on it accurately. I mean, it's easy to print up that money and throw it out, which is I guess what we're getting at.

SPEAKER_04 21:45

But you could pred you can predict the future, but if you got the timing wrong or size wrong, you still lose. Don't want to ask anybody on the T on the pod here. But you know what happens.

SPEAKER_03 21:53

And sometimes you get screwed because you know things happen that don't get it.

SPEAKER_04 22:00

After and you get screwed too.

SPEAKER_03 22:02

Even when it does, and the president confesses to it on live TV, and there's still nothing. But CNN didn't say it, so it doesn't count.

SPEAKER_04 22:10

You know, we only go with what the Washington Post says. Okay, let's hop over to uh the presidential market. Um, Joel, goodness, goodness, what we want to talk about.

SPEAKER_01 22:20

Yeah, Matt, I think we're we were mostly talking about some of the Democratic candidate bets, some of the announcements for presidential candidates, those types of things. I think we had two names that we wanted to go over here first. I think we were talking about Thomas Massey and the Kamala Harris bets. Matt, why don't you go first? I think you were focusing on the Thomas Massey. What's the market here, or what what's the bet that you're making, and what uh what are the odds? Uh, where do you think the alf is?

SPEAKER_04 22:45

Well, I I think basically, you know, as soon as he lost his um his his seat in Congress, I immediately liked him as a presidential candidate. Even if it's just speculation, even if he never gets there, you know, representation of whatever, the new right, whatever you want to call it, you know what I mean? He becomes a very credible figure in it. Uh he's got involved.

SPEAKER_02 23:08

He's the biggest established politician. Right.

SPEAKER_04 23:12

He's got the best, you know, like again, he's got the best resume. When I I mean, I I told you guys I put a sprinkle on Tucker Carlson earlier. I don't think that's gonna happen, but Massie at least has the credentials, you know, of at least being a politician. Um, even though I guess Trump kind of says, hey, anything could happen. Um, but yeah, so if you got in right as he lost that, which is what I tried to do, you got in at just over a penny. I actually didn't book it uh till 1.8, but it's currently at 3.1, so we're up about 65% um since I got in. So pretty happy about that. And I still think there's runway, and I I still like a lot of the bets because uh mostly because I don't like the front runner. I think JD's probably not gonna end up in the spot. So if you think the front runner is kind of a loser, I mean you can bet against him, which I uh should have done. But another way is to just kind of pick some of the underdogs and assume they have more uptake possibility as he keeps going down.

SPEAKER_01 24:06

I mean, first off, uh Tucker Carlson. Uh that's he's at six percent. Did you guys hold on to the bet?

SPEAKER_04 24:15

He's number three.

SPEAKER_01 24:16

I didn't hold on to mine or even make those bets.

SPEAKER_04 24:18

No, I should have I I he was at six point four, I think, at one point.

SPEAKER_01 24:21

I probably should have catched up, but I don't think I think it was one of those one percenters that we, you know, that would be like 500.

SPEAKER_04 24:27

I think now that Massey's up to 3%, he's probably taken a little bit of his spot, so I probably should sell out on Tucker. Um, but yeah, uh a lot of upside, I think, in general with some of these markets because I don't like the front runners and the Democratic race either. I don't like Newsom. So I think again, whatever your angle is there, I think there's some upside.

SPEAKER_01 24:44

Do you think there's there's an upside? I mean, if we're talking Republican side before we go into any of the Democrat side, um DeSantis, he's been as as much as high as six percent. He's down to like four percent now. Yeah, I know he's not in the spotlight as much, but how do you how do you guys think in terms of he's at least gonna say, hey, I wasn't as involved with some of this other uh shenanigans going on internationally?

SPEAKER_02 25:08

Well, I actually think that DeSantis would be a way of hedging our Iran bets in that if Trump absolutely folds, and I mean that that was kind of the interesting uh way things were playing out on the weekend is the reaction to what people were reading about the memorandum of an understanding uh and the let's say establishment Republican figures all said, well hell no, you can't give them that deal under any circumstances. And Trump and Rubio came out afterwards and were said, Of course we're not gonna do any sort of deal that leaves you know Iran in in charge of the straits. We're not gonna give them you know stacks of cash like we like Obama did. But if we actually did want to hedge our bets on the Trump sort of foreign policy team, taking DeSantis would be a smart bet in that he's the only one of sort of the established Republican uh potentials that can have none of the stink of Trump's administration on him because he hasn't been anywhere near it. Yeah, I actually Well I said it first, so uh No, I do.

SPEAKER_04 26:25

I think he's good at four percent, meaning like if like I just fleshed it out, Joel.

SPEAKER_03 26:30

It's a good idea.

SPEAKER_04 26:32

No, no, no, yeah, you're right, you're right.

SPEAKER_01 26:34

No, I think it I think No, I think it's good with with Ron DeSantis, but um yeah, I mean again kind of can avoid the stink, uh, but I don't know much about Thomas Massey. Like he doesn't seem like he's got the like he's he's 3% right, like you know, not that much lower than DeSantis, but it's like I don't really recognize this guy. Is he even like somebody who's out in the public or really has a big name, big enough name to really be on a presidential ticket?

SPEAKER_04 27:01

The thing is, yeah, I mean I think he already has the big name recognition, at least amongst the internet. You know what I mean? He's the Epstein guy, he's the I got those famous clips with John Kerry about climate change, stuff like that. I think he's been on the side of a lot of, you know, a lot of what we'll let people care about for a long time. So I think that's why he has a chance. But I again, if you go back to like charisma, the same reason why DeSantis might not be the best bet. I don't know if he has the uh kind of the chops to fully do it, but I think he has the record where he at least could, you know, has a good chance of being very credible.

SPEAKER_01 27:34

Well, let's let's let's go to the other side then. Let's I think Andrew, you wanted to talk about Kamala. Um, and you were talking about both I think the announcements for the presidential run, and I think we were also have some involvement in the markets for the Democratic uh presidential nominee for 2028. But what are your thoughts on the Kamala and sort of the the other side of the opportunities with I mean it it's crazy to me that the like it's it's Gavin Newsom at 24% for presidential nominee and then AOC at 10%. You know, she's got a higher percent chance than Kamala, which seems crazy. Um but I don't know.

SPEAKER_02 28:11

So I think I think COC's probably more talented than Kamala. Oh hundred percent. And I mean so again, there's there's there's two ways that she's got some pretty privilege. There's there's there's there's two things that I think are the most important ways to to to vet this are all these markets. And there's a you know who you think is gonna win. Obviously, if you really have a strong, you know, uh feeling on who you think is gonna win, go ahead and bet them. But I think the more important thing is to try and figure out of all the possible candidates who actually will announce at some point and become a candidate. Because as soon as that happens, the odds are gonna skyrocket.

SPEAKER_01 28:55

Right, right. And we and we we always talk about getting out early sometimes, right? And you know, who knows when it comes to presidential nominee, but I'm sure there's gonna be those spikes you can capitalize.

SPEAKER_02 29:04

And it's important to bear in mind the mechanisms by which these guys uh can make the debate stage and then actually, you know, have a chance of winning. And that's all about like fundraising numbers, uh polling numbers. Uh I think I think those would be the big two metrics in order to make the debate stage. And if you don't make the debate stage, you don't have a chance of winning. I mean, if you guys remember, there's been like 20 candidates with like you know, varsity and and and JV tier debates in prefix uh previous cycles. So there might be a lot of candidates because I think the numbers are gonna go on. I think I think I should buy some Wes Moore.

SPEAKER_04 29:46

Don't you think he's gonna be pretty good?

SPEAKER_02 29:48

He's good on Bill Maher. Uh he's definitely running.

SPEAKER_04 29:51

And he's like got like the chops and he's at 1%. And I honestly I don't like anybody above him. I really don't. There's not a single person I'm like, oh yeah, let's go for beauty jets. Like, no, like I I don't think any of these people are probably gonna win. I think it's I really do think there's a decent chance there might be two people that win the both nomination for both parties that we're not really even talking about now. And that's why I think there's actually a lot of upside in this market. I think it's something we can kind of we'll probably be covering pretty closely over here the next uh year and a half, you know? Because I just think two and a half. I don't like I don't like any of the big names. I really don't.

SPEAKER_01 30:23

You know, and I I think you're right, right, because it's like there's always almost every cycle, or especially the presidential cycle, there's there's the shockers, you know. Go ahead, Andrew.

SPEAKER_02 30:32

But let me but let me give you my case as to why I think betting on Kamala is the right way to go now. And if you look at a lot of the polls, she's still leading the polls. And again, you have to think about the met you know the mechanism whereby people get these. You know, we're just calling up tens of thousands of people that still have landline numbers and hoping that they'll pick up and were willing to complete the survey and you'll go through and they'll read a randomized list of candidates, and at some point they'll hear a name that they like and they'll go, yeah, that person.

SPEAKER_01 31:07

That's no, we we know that like instinctively that's what humans do, right? And then it's like all of our reasoning is just working backwards from like some of those things.

SPEAKER_02 31:16

And it and if you work backwards from that sort of human nature, like what's the one name that everybody is going to know from that list? And it's Kamala Harris. And I think the narrative that was promulgated by her team and by sort of the media establishment was that, well, she didn't really get a fair shake. Biden didn't drop out until too late in the race, she didn't really have a chance to run a full campaign. I think all of those things are gonna contribute to people continuing to, you know, pull the in the metaphorical lever for her and let her get what they think she's owed, which is a fair, you know, uh kick at the ball. Which is why I I I like her at 8%. Like it's good that number's gonna get higher at a certain point, especially when, and this is what I want to talk about. The market I really like, she announces first, in my opinion. And I've talked about this, you know, for you know, months now. I can't remember the last time I talked about it was probably like fall of 2025. But I think she full sure will announce as soon as the midterms are over this year, because she wants to be the first one out there, the the leader in the clubhouse, so to speak, as the most uh recognizable name in the field, and as the only person in the field who doesn't currently have a job. I think the odds for announcing uh early, like Trump did, coming off after his loss in 2020, Trump 2024 got announced like the second the midterms were over, and I think she's gonna do the same thing. Uh, I got in at 19, uh, it's now up to 25. I thought I had won it uh earlier this week. I got on the group chat and I'm like, guys, the the odds had shot up to 90% that she was gonna announce this year. But me and Matt were talking about I think somebody might have just bought up the book, uh, you know, the order book on it because it's a very small market, only $23,000 in there right now. But if you can find some shares for cheap, it's still a great way to forex your money.

SPEAKER_01 33:30

Yeah, I was I was telling you to sell out when you were up. I know you were taking a big haircut with the big numbers that you're working with uh over there, big boy, but uh but there's no volume for me to sell.

SPEAKER_02 33:41

I I I sold a few shares that I could in like the 70s or the 60s, but there was there was no volume there.

SPEAKER_01 33:48

Yeah, no, I think that the Kamala is interesting and kind of like you say, it it makes sense to me that she announces relatively early. And I don't think it's gonna be uh you know an easy race for her, but we I I think it's very possible or even likely that the sort of democratic establishment and the George Clooneys or whoever else from the world is gonna be writing open letters is gonna be like, hey, no, call Kamala's the one that had the experience. You know, she was with Joe, and you know, we've forgotten about all the bad things that happened when Joe was president, and it's been enough time, and they're like, Well, we need a woman president. So I, you know, I I think these things, you know, it it certainly can spike, and I I give her a good, uh, a pretty good chance. I give her a more realistic chance in my mind of winning this or at least spiking pretty hard compared to AOC, who like I think even if she announced, it's not like everyone's like, oh yeah, baby, let's the the money's gonna be rolling in, so the market's not, you know, I don't think it's gonna see it the same way. I just put a pretty nice little sprinkle on Westmore. I think I really like that bet.

SPEAKER_04 34:51

I just put a sprinkle on all the people who've been talking about because this has been great. No, I think I think when you look at especially especially the Democrats in like Indiana, even like you know, Rubio and Vance are for sure gonna be coming strong in Indiana if they both um you know announce. But like I I I don't think they might even win that, you know? And I definitely don't think I think Democratic's probably totally up in the air. So, you know, where are you gonna get your potential after coming out of who wins like kind of the start of the race? Like, I think you got a lot of upside if you can if you can pick a couple guys that even pull decently.

SPEAKER_01 35:22

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04 35:22

No, I I and I think Westmore would I think he would pour you know, pull decently. I think he's got the chops.

SPEAKER_01 35:29

Yeah, I mean we talked about it as being so far away, but now it's like, oh guys, it's only it's only two years now. You know, it's like these you still get your five percent for just holding uh holding some of these markets anyways. Uh they that's how they incentivize the long-term market.

SPEAKER_04 35:44

Um we got we got we got six six months until this is like the story every day.

SPEAKER_01 35:47

And then there's only gonna be a lot of movement. We know it. But uh going from the Democrats and the Republicans, let's go to the big guys upstairs and our favorite sports, the NBA Finals. There's a market around whether Trump is gonna show up to the NBA Finals. Obviously, a lot of exciting things going on. Uh, there's a chance it's gonna be in New York. I assume people are thinking Trump might show up if it's in New York. He said he was gonna go. That's why the market said there's danger, safety concerns, uh, you know, lack of popularity concerns. I'm sure he doesn't want to get booed. What do you what do you guys think in terms of if if this can happen? I haven't actually looked at the market. Somebody give us the odds.

SPEAKER_04 36:21

Yeah, it's not like I think it's a 74% chance for the yes right now, because he did announce, he did say to some reporter that he was gonna go, and there was a funny little thing where.

SPEAKER_01 36:32

So you think there's only a 25% this guy tacos?

SPEAKER_04 36:35

That's I no, I've I'm betting that no. I'm betting that no. I already put a little nibble down. I think there's a good chance he just, you know, wants to try to get some, like, hey, I'm a big New York guy, but then he'll say, hey, uh, you know, emergency meeting in Camp David, I couldn't go. So and there'd probably only be a couple games, so it's easy to miss.

SPEAKER_03 36:53

Did you see what did you see what happened on the weekend with Trump and uh and Don Jr.?

SPEAKER_04 37:00

He didn't go to the wedding.

SPEAKER_02 37:01

Yeah, but like the way he said it was so hilarious.

SPEAKER_03 37:04

Like, I've known my son for a long time. Uh might not be able to go. Crazy, right? I know it's in two days or whatever.

SPEAKER_02 37:13

Um weird guy, weird family. I I think it's a no too.

SPEAKER_01 37:23

Uh, I think I was gonna say, I think most people are gonna be booing Trump if he's in New York, right? Like, I can understand maybe if he's lost.

SPEAKER_04 37:32

That's why I think it I mean, like the UFC audience has already gone down a lot since before he got inaugurated and everyone was going crazy. And it's kind of hard to go in that from like literally being like the champion coming down the aisle of the crowds going crazy to getting booed in New York between the city championships. I think it's not gonna go. I like the bet a lot, actually.

SPEAKER_01 37:49

Well, and uh we're on the bleeding edge here, boys. New market. Uh where's the volume even? Does it even say how much there is? I don't think there's a ton. It's it's a tiny market. It's like there's yeah, very, very tiny market. This is new guy, new information, guys. And again, it's it's gone from you know relatively around 50%. It's spiked up to 70%. Who knows? Trump, Trump may have, you know, the bomb may go off around the time that these games are supposed to happen, and he maybe just you know may not be available. Who knows? Not against him, obviously. I would never try and say that uh someone's bombing him. I just meant like in the Middle East somewhere, and he's got to be on the phone.

SPEAKER_03 38:25

Bar Association is gonna be calling you next week for threatening.

SPEAKER_01 38:28

You can't threaten the president, guys. I mean, the the safety thing is funny though, right? And I think it is, you know, obviously I I think the NBA does a pretty good job with security and keeping weapons and guns and things out of people's bags. And but it also was pretty crazy when you saw that video of the guy who was, you know, sprinting past security with his rifle and like hit a few guys at like a full sprint, and they didn't out like nobody really managed to instantly turn on him like that.

SPEAKER_02 38:59

I don't think it's I don't think there's any chance of Trump sitting courtside. But a box, you know, with with bulletproof glass is a little different.

SPEAKER_01 39:08

Right. That would make that would make more sense, uh yeah, obviously. Yeah, no, and then again you can well hopefully wouldn't have any other type of box uh situation where something bad happens.

SPEAKER_04 39:22

I've I've heard about that with presidents, but uh you guys want to uh you guys want to finish with the Israeli Prime Minister?

SPEAKER_01 39:30

What's what's the market on that one?

SPEAKER_04 39:33

Uh Bennett, Natalia Bennett, and Benjamin Netanyahu are about equal at like 36 and 38. Uh Bennett's a small favorite. I put a sprinkle down on BB. I'm not really sure why. I just kind of thought during the whole craziness there might be some continuity one way or another, and so I put it I put it down on him. You put it you put it on Netanyahu, sorry, or Bennett? I put it on Netanyahu. 37%, down a couple points.

SPEAKER_02 40:02

So, first of all, uh I I mean I don't really know that much about uh internal Israeli politics, but I think the most likely, according to the market guy, is gonna be Natalie Bennett. Um, he was the previous prime minister for Netanyahu. And do you guys know how he became prime minister? Uh it was kind of crazy. Like they basically came up like with a coalition government power sharing agreement where Bennett was like, okay, I get to be PM for two years, and then Netanyahu, yeah. So they might get into a situation like that again, and then logically it was Bennett's turn to put it. Yeah, he'll he'll get a first shot at it. Yeah. But I think the more likely he might just win outright. Um and I think the reason being is that the Israeli uh people don't tend to keep their leaders around after the war, even if they quote unquote win the war and you know whether or not they won in Gaza. But the war started on Netanyahu's watch. The extent that it was concluded successfully, uh to the Israeli people's satisfaction is very much up in the air. But even if it was, you know, one quote unquote, like what happened to Golden Maiir after she won the Yon Kippur War, immediately they said, Okay, bye-bye, because you still uh you know got s sneaked attack, snuck attack, whatever the word the phrase is, you know, on your watch, uh, and off you go. And I think the same thing's gonna happen. Yahweh's such a poisonous uh person, not just in Israel, but throughout the entire world, and I think the voters are gonna give the oh.

SPEAKER_04 41:57

Okay. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 41:58

That makes sense.

SPEAKER_04 42:01

But somehow I just feel like, you know, I'm I just feel like I just feel like he's you know, like he's like he's been avoided able to avoid the trial the whole time. You know what I mean? By like just having stuff going on? I don't know. I think he's I think he remains in power. We'll see.

SPEAKER_01 42:14

Yeah, it's it's it it's hard to say.

SPEAKER_02 42:15

Um but basically basically 50-50 between those two and and and then the other. It's only at 30.

SPEAKER_01 42:21

There's gotta be some alpha by both. There's still alpha to be made there, boys. But yeah, boys. It was a good week. Uh I think we we promised we'd do a little bit of a big wrap-up here, but uh, I think we're gonna push that off episode 31, you know, leading into the next 30 episodes. That's when we're gonna get a little highlights.

SPEAKER_04 42:40

We'll we'll do uh we'll do a kind of a recap of where we are for the year and you know, some of our big bets have made off. I think it's good to kind of talk about some of our wins. All right, next week. All right, boys. Love y'all.

SPEAKER_00 42:53

Polymarks box, polymarks box. Get you.