Best Bets for Monday | NHL + WBC Picks & Predictions (3.16)

Q opens up the week with two plus money plays from around the world of sports. 

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:06

What's up, everybody? Welcome back to another week of the Plus Money Sports Betting Podcast. My name is Q. You can follow me on all socials at BetzByQ. And of course, this podcast is brought to you by Black Sheep Betting, where it is a dog's world. It was a crazy weekend. Not much to recap from last week, as we missed a couple of episodes due to some technical difficulties. However, do have a few plays tonight, but before we get into that, let's talk about Sinner. He wins the Indian Wells Final against Medvedev 7-6-7-6. Absolutely crazy. So if you've been in the tennis chat over the weekend, you know that we've been rocking and rolling in there. So the link to the free Discord chat is in the description. We'd love to have you in there. We talk sports 24-7-365. Every hour of every single day, there's action on the board. I also have a few VIP packages. We just dropped the college basketball package. Man, Miami's in. Alright. We do have some futures. I want to get those going as well. But the best place, obviously, to get those will be the VIP. But I will be dropping uh two or three futures tomorrow on the show as well. But let's get in to tonight's plays. I have two really good value plays for you today. Let's talk about the Los Angeles Kings against the New York Rangers right here in uh New York at Madison Square Garden. Kings are currently a few points out of the wild card spot. Um, so they still have something to play for down the stretch. The Rangers, entirely different story. They are sitting at the bottom of the standings. Um, I mean, clearly in rebuild mode. The owners already sent out some emails to the season ticket holder saying, hey, don't expect any big moves. Uh, we're gonna completely be sellers at the deadline, and that's what they were. Um, in fact, they sent our Temi Panarin to the Kings, who will be uh making his return to New York today. But when you look at New York, I mean you look at their home results, hasn't been pretty. Uh New York's 9, 15, and 6 at Madison Square Garden this season. But to be fair, in this matchup, if you're wondering why the line is so low, Rangers aren't completely rolling over right now. They actually come into this game on a four-game winning streak. So there's at least a little bit of confidence in the locker room. But when I look at the matchup, I still think the edge um belongs to Los Angeles. Undoubtedly, really, I mean, the Kings have been one of the, you know, quietly been one of the best road teams in the NHL this year, right? 17, 9, and 8 record away from home. Um, and their identity and their, you know, playstyle travels really well. Okay, they play physical, structured hockey, they slow the game down with that physicality, and defensively, they're one of the tougher teams to break through. I always kind of compare them to like an octopus where they just kind of they slowly just get to everything. It's like they have eight arms out there, um, and the game just really, really slows down. Um, and and that's been their you know identity for the last four or five years, okay? So this isn't just something new. It hasn't, you know, been fully beneficial when you get into the playoffs, but you know, they've been bounced out by the Oilers the last three or four years. So um doesn't look like um, you know, at least the Kings have to think about securing a wild card spot before they can think about what happens in round one. Um But I think that the big storyline here tonight's gonna be our Temi Panarin turning to New York. I think that always adds a little bit of emotion um into the game. I think the uh all the time that you know the bread man has spent at uh in New York, um his King's teammates are gonna want to one feed him, right, and two win this game um for the veteran against his former team, a team that many might say, hey, they gave up, they gave up on him, right? Um I think it's gonna be really, really hard for New York to stop the Kings um when they get going offensively. They are uh the Kings are 21, 4, and 7 when they score three or more goals. I think that is the key number, obviously, today. Um, which tells you like when the Kings, when their offense gets to that number, they usually finish the job. I think they get to that number, okay? You know, on the other side, the biggest matchup for the Kings are gonna be how they perform on the penalty kill because New York is 14-7-2 when they convert on the power play. So special teams is obviously gonna play a role here. Um, but overall, I do expect this to be a tight, lower tempo game. I think that favors Los Angeles, their defensive structure, their physical style can really grind these teams down over 60 minutes. And ultimately, I just don't see the Rangers consistently stopping the Kings offense from getting to that three goal stretch uh threshold. Um, if that happens, the numbers say the Kings usually win. I'm gonna go ahead and back that. I'm willing to play the 60-minute money line at plus 130 to get the Kings to win this game in regulation, lock it in for one unit. I will see you at the counter when it cashes. Now, over to the world baseball classic. Transparent, I'm gonna take a shot on the Italy national baseball team at plus 155 against Venezuela. I think Venezuela's a great story. They dismantled Japan, they got the Yamamoto early um in the quarters, but I mean, a lot of people are gonna be looking at Venezuela's lineup. They're gonna see the stars. I assume that they have the um the public is going to believe that this team has the overwhelming offensive edge. I don't think that's the case. I think maybe when if you were to play this matchup, you know, a hundred times, uh Venezuela probably wins ninety-eight times. But the reality here is, you know, Italy's been one of the most explosive offenses in the tournament so far. We know that Venezuela has a star-studded lineup from top to bottom, um, a great bullpen. But I mean, you got, you know, uh feels like the Italians are finding ways to win, even without the long ball. I mean, I think that look, the uh Vinny Pasquantino, anchor in the middle of the order, uh Caglioni uh bring some left-handed pop to the to the rotation, and then just got the guys like John Bertie and and and Don Corti, and uh they help keep innings alive and they apply pressure on pitchers. I mean, Italy has shown all tournament that they can score in bunches, all right. If they continue that offensive pattern tonight, they absolutely have the ability to trade runs rather than just trying to survive against Venezuela's lineup. All right. So when I look at this matchup, I think the market might be underrating just how dangerous Italy's offense has been uh during the World Baseball Classic. If they keep swinging at bats like how they're swinging them, um uh I mean this game is gonna turn into a much tighter contest than people expect. I'm gonna grab the value here. I like Italy on the money line. I think this is gonna be a just back and forth offensive showdown. I think it's gonna be really good for the sport of baseball. And it also is, you know, I think it'll illustrate the fact that the biggest names don't always win the biggest games. A lot of times they do, but not always. And I think that we're gonna get that tonight. So we're gonna take Italy on the money line. I'm gonna go grab some espresso, and hopefully, we'll be eating spaghetti tonight. I'll be back here tomorrow with more plus money plays from around the sports world. As always, my name is Q from Black Sheep Betting, and I hope each and every one of you hit each and every one of your bets. Peace.