Best Bets for Tuesday | CBB Picks & Predictions + Futures (3.17)

The Madness Begins...

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:08

What's up everybody? Welcome back to another episode of the Plus Money Sports Betting Podcast. My name is Q. You can follow me on all socials at Betts by Q. And of course, this podcast is brought to you by Black Sheep Betting. If you're wondering why the podcast is starting so late today, well, don't blame me. Blame your friends over in Italy because I I really don't know how that game ended up the way that it did. But, you know, safe to say, I came home, broke all of the spaghetti in my house, poured out wine. Um, just despicable, man. I mean, I think at that point, like Michael Lorenzen should have came out of the game a long, long time ago. Two outs, proceed to give up four hits, Italy blows the game. I mean, what a strong showing from Italy. Aaron Nola in the beginning. Um, but we just couldn't get the job done. So we lose our Italy one unit bet at plus 155, I believe it was what it was. Um, but we do cash on the Kings in regulation, plus 140. I don't know why that line was the way it was. Kings win four to one. Wasn't even really close. Um, but look, we're in the Miami swing in tennis right now. I want you to check out the Discord, it's absolutely free to join. All right, we do have some brackets in college basketball, so you want to check that out before the first four um game tonight. Um, so if you want to check that stuff out, um, obviously the tennis channel is rocking and rolling 24-7-365 every hour of every single day. We'd love to have you in there. Check out that link in the description. I've also dropped my college basketball uh VIP program as well as um some other packages in the VIP as well. So I'd love to have you in there. Check that out. Those links are in the description. All right, I've got two plays for you today. All right, first one, we're gonna start in the dance. All right, Howard versus UMBC, first four matchup. This is one of those matchups where the surface level numbers are going to push people toward UMBC. But when you actually break this down, I feel like Howard is a side here. UMBC is efficient offensively, uh, top 100 in points per possession, elite from three at around 37%, and strong from the free throw line. But they've played one of the weakest schedules in the country, even weaker than Miami, Ohio. So those numbers I feel are a bit inflated. Howard, on the other hand, they are built in a way that translates to this setting. All right, they're second in the nation in points per possession allowed on the road. Top two in forcing turnovers, top two in or top 20 in free throw attempts. So the key here is let's get to the line for Howard. Um, but the matchup here is simple. Howard's biggest weakness is turnovers, but UMBC doesn't really force them. Okay, they rank outside the top 250 in that category, so the problem really just gets neutralized there. So if you flip it the other way, Howard does force a lot of turnovers, and UMBC is coming in a little thin um in their rotation in the backcourt. So that's where I think the game is gonna swing late. You've got two pretty hot teams, Howard Dying at one of their last 10, UMBC on a 12-game win streak. But imagine we just talked about the strength of schedule. The market is telling you what you need to know. This line opened at UNBC, minus two and a half, it's been bet down towards a pick'em. That's the sharp money coming in on Howard. I think this that this game comes down to tempo and pressure. If Howard is able to speed this game up, force mistakes, and live at the line, I think they win this in the final stretch. I'm gonna say Howard 75, UMBC 70. Give me Howard on the money line plus 115 for one unit, lock it in. I will see you at the counter. Okay. I want you to get this play in that I'm about to give you. It is a futures. Alright. Selection Sunday has happened. We know what the draw is. Let's talk about the real sleeping giant in this bracket. Alright, if you're looking for a national champion profile that the public is completely sleeping on, you have to look no further than Iowa State at 20 to 1. Alright? At plus 2,000. Look, the the the blue blood blue blood bias is real. The metrics don't lie. Okay, this Cyclones team is one of only a handful in the country that hits the magic formula. Top 25 offense paired with a top five defense. Historically, if you're not elite on both ends, you're not cutting down the nets. And Iowa State is statistically sturdier than a lot of these teams with shorter odds than 20 to 1. All right. The X factor here is the path. Being a two-seed in the Midwest, I think it's a massive gift, okay? Sweet 16 and Elite Eighth will both be in Chicago. It's basically a home game for Iowa. That crowd is going to travel. That environment turns into a pressure cooker if we can get there. And we've seen it all year that no middle defense travels. Okay? It disrupts elite guards, it slows games down. And in a one-and-done format, that defensive floor is everything. Okay? At 20 to 1, at plus 2,000 odds, you're getting a team with a one-seed profile at a discount. They don't just beat you, they drag you into their game, and they take the oxygen out of the building. I think that if this team can play exactly how they've been playing all year, I don't think that this is just a Final Four team. I think that this is your 2026 national champions. Give me these futures play on Iowa State plus 2000 to cut down the net at the end of what will be the madness of March. Lock it in, Iowa State plus 2,000. I'm gonna lock it in for a unit. Officially, what I'm gonna give you is a half unit play on this. Okay, it'll play out uh nine units, but a half unit here to pay out nine units, lock it in. I will see you at the counter. Okay, two plays on the board, one for the day, one is the future. We are on Howard on the Money Line. That game starts at 6 40 Eastern Time. It is the first game of the madness, okay? Howard on the money line plus 115 for one unit. And then, of course, we've got Iowa State plus 2,000 for a half unit to win the national championship. All right, good luck tonight. I'll be back here tomorrow with more plus money plays from around the sports world. As always, my name is Q from Black Sheep Betting, and I hope each and every one of you hit each and every one of your bets. Peace.