Best Bets for Wednesday | MLB Opening Night Picks & Predictions (3.25)

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:07

What's up, everybody? Welcome back to another episode of the Plus Money Sports Betting Podcast. My name is Q. You can follow me on socials at BettsByQ. And of course, this podcast is brought to you by Black Sheep Betting, where it is a dog's world. Caroline Muchova cashes for us. Again, 2-0 on the week. Um I mean, Muchova versus Mboco. I know we were on Mboco on Monday, but I mean, a lot of that was about Andreva's, you know, mental midget behavior that she showcases, right? Victoria wins in three sets on Monday, but she 6-0's Andreva in the final set. I think that skewed the line a little bit yesterday. Um, so when we got Muchova at the price that we got her at, I mean, it was an automatic punch plus a hundred. We locked it in, we saw it go through with the counter, and now today is the biggest day of the week. Perhaps it's the biggest day of the year, depending on what kind of sports fan you are. But the MOB season opening night, Oracle Park, San Francisco Giants versus the New York Yankees. But before we get into today's baseball matchup, let's talk about the Discord. That is where all of the action is going down. Miami, we're in full spring right now in the quarterfinals. Absolutely crushing it in the Discord. Look, there's a lot of people in there that are on a heater right now. Um, the last weebender is on a heater right now. Double Fold is doing his thing. Um, but we'd love to have you in the Discord. It's absolutely free. It's just a place to hang out, share your bets. Um, you know, not a lot of self-promo in there, right? Like, this isn't like there's no catch. We want you to come to the Discord into the chat because we love sports, we want to make money, we want to share our bets, um, and you know, we want to cope with the losses when it's appropriate. All right, so check out the link in the description. The access to the VIP or to the Discord is in there. As far as the VIP goes, obviously, baseball season starts today. Mm-hmm package is up and running. I've got a massive deal in MOB. 50% off. All you've got to do is use the code Yankees. Alright. 50% off in MOB package. I've got some CBB packages, 50% off there. Promo code is Miami. Um, look, we're crushing it. I'm having one of the best weeks of the year so far, probably the best week of the year. The last seven days has been absolutely crazy. Now, the podcast, we slow it down, we find the value, a play a day, keeps the you know, deposits away. That's kind of one of my favorite sayings, because we don't want to keep depositing into our sports book account, right? We want to make sure that we're uh capitalizing on our withdrawals, but we don't want to deposit more than once every few weeks, right? We want to keep that money in there, we want to build the bankroll, withdraw the winnings. The key here is to stay in the game as long as possible, okay? But it's a massive night for baseball. I want to get into this play for you. Opening night 2026, the first ever that is streamed on Netflix. I'm not too happy about this because I'm gonna have to go to the bar. I have my own grievances with Netflix, but I do not give them any of my money. But I will have to go to the bar to watch this game. Um, we get a great matchup though. Oracle Park, Yankees, Giants, probably one of the most beautiful ballparks um in the uh Major League Baseball. Uh, but on the surface, uh, this is being priced like a pitching duel. Okay. You've got Max Fried going for the Yankees. Okay. He's gonna face off against Logan Webb. One of the best workhorses in the league. If you do listen to the podcast, we've talked about Logan Webb on here and some of his futures uh coming into the season. Uh, most notably his strikeout future, because, well, nobody pitches more than Logan Webb, and he tends to stay relatively healthy. So naturally, here the total is sitting at seven. It's telling you that this should be a lower scoring game. But I think there's a lot of value on the over here, okay? And you know, I did a little bit of research as I do. I looked at the splits, I'm like, a lot of people betting the over. But this line hasn't ticked up. Not even the seven and a half. Yes, Freed and Webb are both elite. But when you dig a little deeper, there's a clear path for runs, okay? Yankees lineup serious power, Judge, Stanton, Bellinger. They match up well here, um, especially if they stack lefties, which is giving Webb some trouble. And they're gonna they're gonna stack lefties today. They're gonna have at least six lefties in the lineup today. So this is a team that can put up runs in a hurry in just one or two swings, okay? I am also dialed in on Trent Grisham today. Um, he has seen Logan Webb pretty well. Um, 21 played appearances, uh, one RBI, batten 286, okay. Um, just another spot where I'm like, okay, could be worth looking at some Trent Grisham props today. We know that Judge owns Logan Webb. He's got like two home runs, had like four appearances off of him or whatnot. Um, and then coming from Colorado last year, Ryan McMahon, third baseman for the Yankees, has seen um Logan Webb naturally uh a lot of times. Now, offensively, and I say all that to say with the more reps you get against the pitcher, the harder it is for the pitcher to get through the at-bat. All right. So I think we are gonna get more balls in play than what people think. Logan Webb likes to keep it on the ground, but I think that if that sinker creeps up just a little bit, um, New York batters are gonna be sitting on it, they're gonna be ready for it. All right. On the other side, the Giants offense, uh, they're just more complete than people give them credit for. I think. Um, Adamas, Devers already established in the lineup. Um crazy acquisition of uh Luis Jarayas, um, who almost batted 400, almost batted 400 a few years ago, um, and just got out of the world baseball classic. I mean, they have the ability to both hit for power and string quality at bats together to create pressure. I think the latter is more of what you're gonna see today. Um, but yeah, I think this Giants keep team won. I mean, it's a pick'em of a game, right? Nobody really knows who should be favored, but like uh I think that this is a better matchup for the Giants on the money line than it is if you're a New York better. Um obviously I'm not picking a side here because the biggest factor for me in this game is the bullpen. Look, if you like one pitcher over the other, okay, like starting pitcher, and you're like, okay, well, I like Logan Webb so I think the Giants are gonna win, you don't bet the Giants to win. You bet the Giants to win first five. All right, because once like the starting pitcher can only do their job. After that, you gotta pass the ball off to the guys in the pen. All right, it's opening night. The starters aren't likely gonna go seven or eight innings. If we're gonna get three to four innings of bullpen on each side, that's where things are gonna get volatile. Okay, early season arms, rules not fully settled in, command is not fully gonna be there. That's how games like this open up late. So while everything on paper points to the under in this game, looking at the bigger picture, power on both sides, experienced bats on the Giants, experienced bats with repetition on the Yankee side, and bullpen volatility. I mean, that's what we talked about with New York last year early in the season. Their bullpen couldn't keep up. And um, look, it's a new season. Who knows what's gonna happen um, you know, when we get to October, but it's March, it's the first game of the season. I want to see some runs. It's good for baseball. I'm going with the over seven in this one. Feels like a game that might start slow, but I think it has real potential to break open later in the innings. Give me the over seven minus 105 for one unit. I'm also going to say I think Trent Grisham has a game. If you want to take him for two bases, it's plus money, and RBI is plus money, and obviously a home run. I think Trent Grisham has a game here. Um, but officially, we are on the over seven runs in opening night baseball at Oracle Park between the San Francisco Giants and the New York Yankees. All right, one unit on the board, one unit in play. I will be back here tomorrow with more plus mini plays from around the sports world. As always, my name is Q from Black Sheep Betting. I hope to see you in the Discord. I hope to see you in the VIP. But if not, I'll be back here tomorrow morning. As always, I hope each and everyone each and everyone needs bets.

unknown 11:02

Peace.