Best Bets for Tuesday | MLB Picks & Predictions (3.31)

Q makes up for a missed opportunity

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Transcript

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What's up everybody? Welcome back to another episode of the Plus Money Supports Betting Podcast. My name is Q. You can follow me on our socials at BetSpyQ, and of course, this podcast is brought to you by Black Sheep Betting, where it is a dog's world. It's been a rocky start to the week. Alright, I completely missed the podcast yesterday. I had some things I needed to take care of. I wasn't able to get it uploaded and on the platforms in a reasonable time. Alright. With that being said, we won't miss any more days. Okay. My daughter's here. She's ready for the podcast to get going. And uh we've got a really, really big play for you today. But first, before we do that, um, let's talk about the Discord. It's hosted by Will from the Double Fault Tennis Podcast. It's just a place to hang out, share your bets, celebrate the wins, cope with the losses. Uh, almost a thousand members in there. We'd love to have you. It's absolutely free. The clay season is finally here. On the road to Rolling Garros. Um, tennis chat's going to be booming over the next few days. We're in some qualifiers right now. We're moving into some 250s, 500s. Um, and of course, obviously, I have the VIP. Um, those packages are there for you. There are uh there's a little bit of something for everybody. Okay, so don't feel like you have to break the bank to get the best value plays that I have on the board each and every single day. But let's talk about today's play, Astros versus the Red Sox uh matchup. Here I'm leaning towards the Astros minus one and a half at plus one forty. Um the data here just generally supports the blowout potential here with Hunter Brown on the on the mound for Houston. He's currently pitching like their newest ace. Um his first starter 2026, he punched out nine batters in less than five innings. Um historically, he has stifled this Red Sox lineup. Um only two on runs and 13.2 innings pitched versus Boston last year. Um Brian uh Brian Bello, this is his first look of the season. Uh he ended last year on a pretty rough note, failing to pitch more than five innings in his final three starts, got absolutely rocked. The big thing for him though is his high walk rate. All right, 60 base home balls in 2025. That's super dangerous against an Ashos team that uh, you know, I know it's early, but they do rank near the top of the league in uh on base percentage. So um we know the Red Sox, they struggle against righties. They're 0-3 against right-handed pitchers so far in 2026. Hunter Brown, one of the more electric righties that they'll see this month. So I don't think they're gonna have a lot of success against him. Um Houston's bats, they're more patient than they are aggressive. Um, you know, they lead the league in walks through the first week. That's not a good matchup here against Bello, especially with his tendency to lose the strike zone. Um, I think the biggest risk here on the uh Astros run line here. Obviously, we're at home, so if we get to you know the ghost runner situation, it's not gonna matter because only one run would win the game on the under. Um, and then of course, you know, the the Astros got a bunch of arms on the IL, mainly in the bullpen, including closer Josh Hader. So if Brown doesn't go deep, the Red Sox could claw back late um against the B-team relievers. But I'm gonna rock here with the Astros minus one and a half, plus 140. Makes a lot of sense here. Brown versus Bello. Um Houston's ability to punish the pitchers with control issues. Houston won the series opener yesterday, eight to one. Um, if that number was nine to one, um, and we'll talk about that later on in the season whenever we get there. But there is a trend, what we call the magic number nine in baseball. But we don't get that angle today. Give me the Astros minus one and a half, plus one forty. I gotta get back to daddy duties as you can hear. But as always, my name is Q from Black Sheep Betting. I'll be back here tomorrow with more plus 20 plays from around the sports world. And as always, I hope each and every one of you hit each and every one of us with your best. Peace.