Best Bets for Monday | MLB Picks & Predictions (4.13)

Q's back with more plus money plays from around the sports world. 

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Transcript

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What's up everybody? Welcome back to another week of the Plus Money Sports Betting Podcast. My name is Q. You can follow me on all socials at Betts by Q. And of course, this podcast is brought to you by Black Sheep Betting, where it is a dog's world. I've been MIA for a week. Alright. Couple life updates. Took a vacation. I got engaged. We're about to celebrate my daughter's first birthday. So I took a week. Okay? I suggest that you too take a week for yourself and focus on the things that matter in life. Go outside, touch some grass, reset. That's exactly what I did. Just randomly load the car up, go somewhere. My wife was on spring break from the school, so we were able to really lock in and enjoy ourselves. And uh look, if you were in the VIP, you know I didn't miss a beat. We've been absolutely crushing it in there. There's a link for the VIP um in the description of this podcast. So I'd love to have you in there. Um, on top of that, man, I'm still pretty active in the Discord. It's absolutely free. It's hosted by Will from the Double Fault Tennis Podcast. But uh, I mean, we talk bets, you know, 24-7, 365 every hour of every single day. I mean, lots of stuff to catch up in uh catch up on. We finally had our first Sinkaraz matchup. Center came out on top on that yesterday in the Monte Carlo final. Now we move into Barcelona. Um, so lots of stuff going on. Um, I'm pretty active in the Discord. I'll be dropping some free plays, a couple of parlays here, a couple of parlays there. No, the obviously I don't bet NBA. I know NBA season is just wrapped up. We're moving into the playoffs. Um, I love to line read the NBA, so I will put some futures in for the NBA. Um, probably won't give them out on the podcast, but they'll definitely be in the Discord. So, all that to say, the Discord is absolutely free. We would love to have you in there. We are building a winning community, almost a thousand people. Um, so definitely check that out. You don't want to miss out. All right, I've got one play on the board for you today, and uh it's the gift that just keeps on giving right now. You know, let's talk about this AL West matchup. You know, I follow AL West, I've been following um that division for about six, seven years right now. Um, but we're gonna tune into this Oakland Athletics versus the Texas Rangers because this is one of those spots where I think the market might just be a little off. Both teams are gonna come into this game eight and seven. So um this is a you know big early season divisional matchup with uh truthfully, I know we're only 15 games in, but I mean, this is where real positioning implications can can come into play. I mean, this is not a walk in the park game for either team. Um, but where things start to separate is the current form. I know both these teams have the same record, but the athletics, and if you're in the the VIP, you know this already. I've been going back to them uh four out of these last five games, but they're absolutely rolling right now. They've won five straight, um, and not against weak competition, right? They're not playing the fucking Marlins, right? They just took two from the Yankees, should have been three. They swept the Mets, and uh and here's the here's the key stat, okay? They've allowed just two runs across those five games, all right? It's not luck, it's a pitching staff and a bullpen that is completely locked in right now. And honestly, um after the athletics got rid of Mason Miller, man, I was like, damn, like this was a team. I mean, look, uh, like I said, I've followed the AL West for a very long time. The A's have a great form system, all right? The minor league players that they have. Um, and it's only a matter of time until this team comes all the way together. Was getting rid of Mason Miller a mistake? It's hard to say. Probably, um, but there were other things that needed to be addressed. It didn't matter if you had the best closure in the game if you weren't in a position to throw him out there for a save. Okay. So, um, but let's get into this pitching matchup tonight from a starter perspective. Um, for the A's, you got uh Louis Severino on the mound. On paper, uh, you know, the numbers don't really, you know, jump off the page. 5.4 ERA, uh, 1.80 walking hits per inning. Um, but he does have 17 strikeouts, just 13 innings uh pitch. Here's something that I really like. Okay, he has not allowed a home run yet this season. On the other side, we get Nathan Iovaldi. And I think like, I don't know, I'm not a big Iovaldi guy. I know a lot of people are really high on him, they've been high on him, but he's sitting with a 7.98 ERA, 1.84 whip, and has allowed 22 hits in just under 15 innings. In addition to that, he's given up four long balls. So neither pitcher has been perfect, but there is a big difference here. Severino issues is walks, Iovaldi's issue is getting hit really hard, and that's the more dangerous problem here, especially against a team um that's starting to heat up like the A's. They're tacking on runs. Now, if you zoom out and you look at full team stats, the Rangers have the edge on paper. That's likely why they're favored in this game. Um, their pitching staff collectively, 3.46 ERA, 1.22 uh whip compared to the A's, who have a 4.20 uh ERA, you know, 1.47 uh whip. So, I mean, uh baseball isn't played in in season averages, right? It's played in current form and matchup context. And right now, the A's are hot, the Rangers have been a bit inconsistent. Now I know the narrative here. Historically, the Rangers have dominated this matchup. I think they've won the last seven, six or seven matchups, um, the individual matchups between um the athletics. So they've had a lot of success in divisional games, particularly against Oakland. But this feels like a classic pivot spot because everything we're seeing right now points to the A's trending up, Iovaldi trending down, and the market still pricing Texas like the more stable team. And there are even, you know, you know, some trends that kind of back this up, right? The A's have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs. They've also been fast starters, they get out in front early in games during the streak that they've been winning. So when you put all of this together, you've got the hotter team, um, the better recent pitching form, and a matchup where both starters are kind of shaky, but one is clearly more vulnerable, vulnerable. So for me, this is a spot where the streak does continue. Give me the athletics on the money line to win this game tonight. Plus 120. Lock it in. I will see you at the counter. Now, if you are concerned about the podcast, don't be because I will be back here tomorrow with more plus money plays from around the sports world. I won't take any more impromptu vacations without letting you know. As always, my name is Q from Black Sheep Betting. I hope to see you in the Discord, I hope to see you in the VIP, but more importantly, I hope to see you at the counter lock in. I'll be back here tomorrow, and as always, I hope each and every one of you hit each and every one of your best.