Best Bets for Wednesday | MLB Picks & Predictions (4.15)

Q's back on the diamond with two plus money plays! 

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:06

What's up everybody? Welcome back to another episode of the Plus Money Sports Betting Podcast. My name is Q. You can follow me on all socials at BetSpyQ. And of course, this podcast is brought to you by Black Sheep Betting, where it is a dog's world. I gotta apologize again. I hate to do it. I dropped the ball. I uploaded the pod yesterday and um I queued it up. It didn't upload, it didn't make it to the to the platform. So um that's on me. Uh and I wish I would have been able to get it out there because I had the athletics yesterday. So um look, I do this podcast. It's it's a free podcast, okay? Like I don't I don't get paid to do this, alright? Hopefully soon come, but right now this is this is all me, okay? And I also prioritize the VIP. So VIP hasn't missed a beat. Obviously, you can find a link uh to the VIP um in the description. Uh, you know, I got a c I got a lot for everybody, you know, a little bit of something for everybody, okay? Got some$15 packages. We're moving into the NHL season. My Buffalo Sabres have locked up home ice in the Stanley Cup playoffs for the first time since 2010. Um really crazy stuff going on. So I have some NHL packages. Obviously, MOB packages live. Um look like we're in the swing of things, so right? It's April, we're cruising through the year. Um now we apply pressure. Okay, we've got a system, we've got data, um, we know what works for us. So um, yeah. Definitely would love to have you in the VIP. I prioritize that over pretty much anything because that is running seven days a week. I don't miss a beat there. Um, look, we'd love to have you in the Discord as well. So if you don't want to do the VIP and like, you know, you're like, damn, Q missed out on the on the podcast, or the podcast didn't upload, you know, I only do this Monday through Friday. Discord's where you want to be at. It's absolutely free. It's hosted by Will from the Double Fault Tennis Podcast. Great guy, um, super cool podcast. But we've combined our Discords and you know, almost a thousand members in there. So, you know, all we do is talk sports 24-7, 365 every hour of every single day. Um yeah, come check it out. Uh, we'd love to have you in there again. It's absolutely free. Um, you can even like turn notifications if you're not you know familiar with Discord, like you can turn notifications on for because it's active all the time. So this isn't something that you wanna have like just you know going off all day. You're probably gonna mute it at some point. So you can have notifications on for particular people in the channel. There are some very sharp betters that drop some very, very good plays, and I tell them as well. Okay, so I mean a lot of what we do in this betting world. I mean, look, everything's fine when you bet something, you know, before you see the flop. But once you're in it and you see the eye test and you're going, like live betting is where it's at. We make a lot of money live betting, we make a lot of money, you know, putting our heads together. So, yeah, Discord is free. All right, the link is in the description. Um, I'm usually in the tennis channel more than I'm in anything else, but there is something for everybody. NBA. Um, I know we got some MMA heads in there, hockey, cricket, golf, whatever you want, there's something in the Discord for you. Um, the link is in the description. Um, last thing, I'm working on the bet tracker. I know people are like, yo, what's up with the bet tracker? It's been updated in a few weeks. It's coming, okay. Just keep listening. Um, I love to hear your feedback and all of that. We've got some potential sponsorship coming to the podcast. Stay tuned for that. Um, been working very, very heavily behind the scenes on some things. So um, but let's get into the today's play. All right. This one will get uploaded, so you're gonna have time to get this. I'm doing the podcast a little bit later than I usually am. I had to get my daughter down and whatnot. But two plays today that I really like both come down to what I see as pitching mismatches, um, you know, combined with some offensive context here for you. First up, I'm gonna go to the Reds on the money line against the Giants. Okay. Rhett Louder on the mound. If you haven't been paying attention, now is the time. Okay. Nine career MLB starts. He's rocking a 1.91 ERA. Uh, more importantly, though, doesn't give up the long ball. One home run in 47 innings pitched in the pros. That's not luck. That's command. That's elite command, control, it's pitchability. I mean, he's not overpowering guys with a fastball. He's beating hitters with sequencing, right? Changing eye levels, uh, living on the edges, already pitching um like a veteran. Uh, the results back it up. I really, really do love this play. Uh we look on the other side of it. We got Tyler Molly. Um on paper, he's 2.16 ERA, looks pretty solid, but the underlying numbers um indicate some regression. Okay, so uh 3.317 field independent variable. Now, early this season, we're seeing that kind of play out 4.30 ERA through three starts this year, um, 4.3 walks per nine innings pitched. That's a red flag. And look, I mean, you don't want to put Ellie on base, you want to put some of these Reds players on base. All right, they will make you pay. Um, and uh, I think that the biggest issue I have here is the Giants are just dead cold. I mean, they're bats, uh, they're coming into this matchup dead last in the National League and scoring just 3.2 runs per game. So, I mean, what are we really looking at? We're looking at a composed arm, uh, young arm in louder who limits damage, doesn't beat himself versus a pitcher who is trending in the wrong direction and is a victim of regression, okay? Um, and he's not really getting any offensive support at all. The weakest um offense in the National League. So the Reds don't need to explode offensively here, they just need to be average. If Louder does what he's been doing, that's enough here. Give me the Reds on the money line plus 110, lock it in. I will see you at the counter. Second play. This one's just a bit of a power mismatch, okay? Both on the mound and at the plate. I'm taking the Dodgers minus one and a half here, okay? It's plus one twenty-five, I think. Last I checked. Yeah, so we're at yeah, we're at plus one. Gonna be down to probably plus one fifteen, one ten by the time you really get this play, okay? Um, but I love this at you know, a pick'em. All right, so we're gonna get Clay Holmes on the mount here. Um for the Mets. He's transitioning into a starter, sitting at a 3.33 ERA. But the deeper you dig, the more concerning that it gets, okay? He's only striking out 6.9 batters per nine, um, allows a lot of contact. Uh 4.09 fielding index variable suggests that he's kind of just getting a bit fortunate here. Alright, so uh things could be a lot worse, which means that you know the Mets defense behind him is, you know, kind of doing their job. But you profile that against the Dodgers lineup, and that's a problem. Alright. Obviously, we know the Dodgers in what they bring to the table offensively, right? They lead the league in scoring six almost six runs uh per game. It's not a team that you want to allow um consistent contact against, okay? They will punish you. I think that this line is extremely too small. Look, one of the best bets in in that I've ever been a part of, one of the best trends I've ever been a part of was that 2017-2018 Dodgers year, where all they did was cover the run line. I mean, I think around this time, like mid-May, we were seeing minus two and a halves on the run line. Something that we I I had never seen that before. All right. I think we're gonna get something similar similar to that this year in this Dodgers team. I want to be able to get on it now that we're getting good odds before you know these numbers start creeping into the minus two hundreds, or you know, God forbid we get a minus two and a half on the board. So um this Dodgers lineup is going to destroy you. It's just not much that you can do about it. Um probably your best bet is ground ball pitcher um or somebody who pitches to a lot of weak contact. That's not Clay Holmes. Okay. On the other side of this, we get showtime on the mound here. He's sitting at a 2.29 ERA, 2.15 fielding index variable. That's dominance backed by elite underlying numbers. Okay, so you've got the best offense in baseball against a contact heavy pitcher trending towards regression with an ace level arm on your side and show hey Otani. That's how you get margin. Um, I don't just want the Dodgers to win. I want them to win comfortably. I think that they do. I think that the Dodgers win by at least three runs here. I don't know what's going on. Uh, giving us out at plus money, but give me the Dodgers on the run line minus one and a half at plus one ten officially. Lock it in. I will see you at the counter. All right. Two plays on the board, one unit on each of those two units in play. We are on the reds plus one ten on the money line. Also on the Dodgers minus one and a half plus one ten on the run line. All right, good luck tonight. I'll be back here tomorrow with more plus many plays from around the sports world. As always, my name is Q from Black Sheet Betting, and I hope each and every one of you each and every one of your bets. Peace.