Best Bets for Thursday | MLB Picks & Predictions (4.16)

Q brought the brooms out yesterday and looks to keep the momentum going with today's pick. 

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Transcript

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What's up everybody? Welcome back to another episode of the Plus Money Sports Betting Podcast. My name is Q. You can follow me on all socials at BetsByQ. And of course, this podcast is sponsored by Black Sheep Betting, where it is a dog's world. Look, we swept the board yesterday. Alright? We had the Reds on the money line. Um, they cashed, I mean, absolute blowout there. It kind of got sweaty in the second. We put up four in the first. Then, you know, they responded and they put up two. It was like a 4-2 game. Fred's ended up winning this game eight to two. Okay, you really um couldn't go wrong with this bet. Played out exactly how we thought that it would. Fred's cash on the money line plus 105, and we see it go through the hoop. We also had what I said is I believe this play to be not only it's gonna be the best play in baseball this year, the line is probably gonna move on the Dodgers run line. I don't know what you do. Shohei did not even bat yesterday, and they won by eight. Okay, I mean, this Dodgers team is the real deal. We know this. The lineup is just star-studded. Um, but Shohei didn't bat yesterday. But he had 10 strikeouts on the mound. It's kind of ridiculous. All right. I think back in 2017, 2018, um the best bet in sports was Dodgers minus one and a half. By May, we didn't see the run line at one and a half anymore. We saw it move to two and a half in some games in some spots. Um, and if we did get the one and a half, I mean it was we were talking laying major juice minus two twenty, minus two fifty. I mean, that's what the line was, you know, eight, nine years ago. It's gonna be interesting to see if the Dodgers keep rolling, what the line um we'll look at come uh May. But we go two and two on the day. Um, I think that puts us up uh 2.15 units uh for the day. Um, obviously the Discord is booming. Um, it's absolutely free. Come check it out, okay. Like right now, we're sweating some bets um in the clay swing, early morning action right now, okay? We're out of North America, we're fully into the like 5 a.m. bets um in a tennis world. So if obviously like those are some of the plays that aren't gonna be on the podcast, uh, because it's just you don't have ample opportunity to really get them in, right? And I don't want to kind of be delayed waiting, you know, a day for yesterday's you know, plays to cash and so on and so forth. So if you want the tennis bets, if you want more action, if you want to go to a place where you can hang out, share your bets, cope with the losses, um, and just talk sports 24-7, 365, any hour of every day. Um, the Discord is where you want to be at. All right. I get a lot of DMs saying, Yo, Q, um, I missed the podcast play or I don't want to be in the VIP. Like, just go to the Discord, dude. It's free. Okay. Find somebody that you want to follow in Discord, a lot of really sharp betters in there. Turn on notifications um for that particular person, you know, whether it's me or somebody else. Um, that's that's kind of the method that you want to do in in the Discord because there are a lot of hidden gems in there, but there is a lot of action. So this isn't something that you want to, you know, have booming off. If you're at work, you're gonna get you know 200 notifications within an hour. But uh, we definitely want to see you in there, it's absolutely free. We are building a winning um culture in there, very positive vibe. So come check that out. We hope to see you in there. I also would be remiss to not mention the fact that I have the VIP packages, okay? We had three new uh signups yesterday for some season passes. We crushed, we answered, we responded, we swept yesterday in the VIP. Three no. Um, up four units in the VIP yesterday. There's a little bit of something for everybody. Check out the links in the description. See what works for you. Do a trial, okay. The podcast is absolutely booming. Um, the VIP is at least three times that in terms of profitability, okay? And it's not a place where we have a lot of volume, all right. I don't uh the max amount of units that we bet a day in the VIP is three units, okay? That's the max. And it's really less than that most days, all right? It's not a place where you're gonna get parlays and 10k challenges or lottery tickets, it is a place where value trumps volume. If that sounds interesting to you and you're looking for somebody to follow, whether you're new to sports betting or you're seasoned, come check out the VIP. I would love to have you in there. Okay, now for today, I've got one play on the board. It's pretty simple. Um, I'm looking at the Guardians on the run line here, minus one and a half at plus money, around 170. One of my favorite spots on the board, and it really comes down to what it always comes down to a pitching mismatch. All right, we got Parker Mestic on the mound. Um, he's been lights out to start the year. Okay, sub-1 ERA early on, um, carrying over that dominance from last season. He posted a 2.0 for ERA last season in his first 10 starts in the MLB. He limits walks, um, he keeps balls in the yard, doesn't beat himself. I mean, that that's kind of the the profile that you want um in baseball, right? Especially in a pitcher, right? You don't want to put a lot of people on base. You don't want your pitcher getting behind an account, beating himself, or just putting the ball right over the plate. So on the other side of this, um Baltimore's Baltimore's just been struggling. Okay, Shane Bass on the mound. He's had some issues with command, um, traffic on the bases, sitting with a ERA north of 4.5, uh, whip pushing 1.5. So he's walking a lot of batters, he's getting hit consistently, giving up runs, um just too much hard contact for Shane Bass right here. That's not what you want uh going up against a really disciplined guardians lineup and and a guardians lineup that is pretty good at home, and and the bullpen the bullpen can back them up, all right. You factor in the fact that Baltimore's offense on the road has been I mean, that's been their major weakness this year. Bottom of the bottom tier in scoring, uh put up just over three runs per game on the road. Now they're facing a pitcher who's been excellent at limiting damage. Just doesn't match up well for them, okay? I don't really see a path to victory for Baltimore. I'm gonna pass on the money line for Cleveland because they don't really need to do anything crazy here, they just need to play their game. Um, and with the edge on the mound plus the better recent form, I think this sets up as a spot where they can win comfortably by multiple runs. So give me the guardians minus one and a half plus one seventy for one unit. Good luck tonight. I'll be back here tomorrow with more plus one new plays around the sports world. As always, my name is Q from Black Sheep Betting, and I hope each and every one of you hit each and every one of your bets. Peace.