Best Bets for Friday | MLB Picks & Predictions + Futures (4.17)

Q discusses his 20-1 Futures and locks in on another plus money play from the diamond. 

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Transcript

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What's up everybody? Welcome back to another episode of the Plus Money Sports Betting Podcast. My name is Q. You can follow me on socials at BetsByQ. And of course, this podcast is brought to you by Black Sheep Betting, where it is a dog's world. Uh The Guardians, what can I say? We had the run line yesterday. Plus 170. Parker Mesic kids a fucking dog. Brings the no no into the ninth. You know we still had to sweat this bet though. Guardians win four to things got crazy. Uh Parker Mesic what a performance. Uh felt really good up until the ninth. So um we squeaked by, guardians win by a score of four to two. Um yeah. Keep this kid on your radar. I mean, I think he had 9Ks yesterday, just uh absolute dog. Uh, but we cash our ticket at the plus 170. It's great odds here. Um, but it's futures Friday, but before we eat and everything, obviously you know the place that you want to be at is the Discord. Okay. It's absolutely free. We're gonna be heavily into the tennis for the foreseeable future. That's what I do. It's tennis day in, day out, but with the way the tennis schedule is set up, unless you're in the VIP, like some of my tennis bets are just gonna be in the Discord. The Discord is free. No catch. Alright. We're trying to build a winning culture in there. Positive vibes, positive people. You don't just have to follow my place. There are a lot of sharp betters in there. Um it's Discord is hosted by Will from the Double Fault Tennis Podcast. We've combined our uh two Discords. There's almost a thousand people in there, okay? Uh something for everybody. Every sport, basketball, MMA, golf. I mean, I am mainly in the tennis channel. The NHL NHL channel will get a lot more active as well as we move into the playoffs. Um, but uh, yeah, we'd love to have you in there, okay? We talk sports 24-7, 365 every hour of every single day. I mean, it's 320 in the morning right now, and chat is fully active. Okay, so um, come check it out. Link is in in the description. Um, again, we'd love to have you. I've got the VIP as well. You know this, it's not for everybody, okay? It's not a place where uh you're gonna get a lot of lotteries or parlays or 10k challenges. I'm not into that. It's a place where value trumps volume. It's all we're talking about. Plus money plays from around the sports world. We're looking for the best value on the board. I bet pretty much everything with the exception of NBA. Okay? I'm not an NBA guy. I'm not gonna. We might have some, you know, futures that we take, you know, value place, things that I hear. I got my, you know, ears to the floor on a lot of these things. But yeah, like I've got something for everybody in the VIP as well, right? But like, I get it. People don't want to pay for picks. Totally cool. But if you're somebody who is interested in profitability, in long-term value, the VIP is what it's all about. Check it out. There are some free trials in there. I'd love to have you in the VIP. Obviously, the podcast only runs Monday through Friday. I drop one or two plays on here. So you got a couple of options. You got the Discord, you've got the VIP, the choice is yours. But it's Futures Friday as I ramble on. Let's get in to the futures play. I don't know what else to say. I've I've since the MOB season has started, I've been super hype kind of in this like twilight zone of Is he back? Is Mike Trout back? So this futures is what you think it is gonna be. Mike Trout to win AO MVP at plus 2200. I know what you're thinking. Injuries, age. He hasn't been the same guy the last couple of years. But let's not forget who we're talking about here. Three-time MVP, eleven time all-star, two-time All-Star Game MVP, nine silver slugger awards. Guys finished top five in MVP voting basically every healthy season that he's played. For ten years, Mike Trout wasn't just the best player in baseball, he was the most consistent superstar that we had seen probably since Barry. It looks like he's back. The swing looks right, the power is there again. I mean, he's driving the ball, impacting games, but most importantly, he's healthy. He's even in the fucking outfield. I mean, who would have thought? But that's the whole bet. Because if if if if Mike Trout is 80% of Peak Trout. I mean, plus 2200 is pretty fucking disrespectful. I mean, the number is priced like he's completely washed. He's not. The kid is back. The risk is here, obviously. He's been injury prone on the uh back half of his career. There are some people who are new to the baseball world, a younger generation, that don't even know. That that have no clue who Mike Trout really is. So, um, yeah. Back half of his career has been rough. Okay something I've thought about when I punched this ticket was maybe there's a real possibility that he doesn't even even finish the season with the Angels. I don't know. If the Angels are buyers, does he stay? I mean, I the Angels have never been buyers. That's been part of the problem. I mean, Shohei got up out of there and got some rings already. I mean, uh if he gets traded out of the AL, uh I'm not really sure what that means for the ticket. I imagine it would be graded as a loss. Uh some books might grade that as a uh as a void, but I think that's baked into the price. All right, you're getting a generational talent with a proven MVP ceiling, long shot odds, simply because of his durability. But if he stays healthy and plays 140 games, he's live. Very live. Um, so for me, this is exactly what Futures Friday is about. Buying low on elite talent. And uh Mike Droud's one of the best baseball players to ever walk this earth. So Mike Droud plus 2200 AL MVP. I'm in for one unit, lock it in. I'll see you at the counter. Okay. I do have a play for today. Let's talk about a spot that I really like tonight. Sticking with the Angels here. Okay? Going with the Angels team total over four and a half at plus one fifteen. One of those plays where I think like at first glance, it feels kind of sketchy. Um, when I broke this down and I looked at it, I mean the value's there. This number is sitting at four and a half. The Angels are literally 500 on this line this season. They're 10-10 to this number. Okay? So you're telling me I'm getting plus money on something that's been flipping like a coin all year. I'll take it every single time. Okay? The elephant in the room, I guess, is the Padres are smoking hot. They've won eight straight, eleven of their last twelve. But I think the context matters here, okay? That run that they're on right now, it's come against a Seattle Mariners lineup that is still a home run or bust as far as lineup goes. Before that, they played four games against the Rockies, swept them. Um legit one of the worst organizations in baseball. And then this win streak started with the win against the Pirates. So, depending on what you feel about the Pirates, but I mean, they're not really jumping off the charts offensively, okay? This is a different test because now you're dealing with a lineup led by Mike Trout, who, as we just talked about, looks like he's back, driving the ball, impacting games. He just hit five home runs against the Yankees in in their series. I mean, just a Yankee killer, just crazy. Um, you've got Joe Adell, who hit a grand slam yesterday. For some reason, I think he's he feels like he's hit multiple grand slams, but um, he's hitting over 300 on the year. You got Oswald uh Peraza uh contributing with pop, four bombs, eight RBIs already. Um Slineup has a little bit of depth to him, and they're putting pressure on pitchers, and that brings us to the matchup. Michael Waldron. Now, if you play MOB the show like me, you can add me parlay killer and BSN. You know Michael Waldron is a cheat code on the game. But in real life, we're talking about a knuckleballer who he throws it 74% of the time with a career ERA of 4.68. That pitch is the knuckleball, right? Is unpredictable, sure. But it also lives in hittable zones, and that's how he makes his living. He throws it 74% of the time. You're mostly going to see knuckleballs float over the plate or hang on the outside corner, okay? The key here is discipline for these Angels bats. They have to stay patient. And they should because they've been one of the best teams in baseball and drawing walks, okay? Number one in the league in uh base on balls. So they can absolutely get to Michael Waldron early and put pressure on the base paths. And even if they don't, I think that this is still a spot where the game can crack open late against the bullpen. Okay, so yeah, there's a risk. You don't see knuckle ballers often um in the league anymore. Um if they come out too aggressive, it could backfire. But I don't think they're gonna do that. At the end of the day, four and a half, it's a super low number for a team that's done this 50% of the time this season. Um, and against a team that is seeing a step up in competition. So you're getting plus money here at the four and a half. I'm gonna lock that in at plus one fifteen for one unit. I will see you at the counter when it caches. All right. Two plays on the board, one futures run Mike Trout to win the AL MVP at plus 2200. And of course, we are on the Angels team total over four and a half at plus one fifteen for one unit. I hope you have a great weekend. I'll be back here on Monday with more plus money plays from around the sports world. As always, my name is Q from Black Sheet Betting, and I hope each and every one of you each and every one of your bets. Peace, and I'm gonna be a good one.