Best Bets for Monday | MLB Picks & Predictions (4.20)

Q starts the week off on the diamond.

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Transcript

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What's up everybody? Welcome back to another week of the Plus Money Sports Betting Podcast. My name is Q. You can follow me on all socials at Petsby Q. And of course, this podcast is brought to you by Black Sheep Betting, where it is a dog's world. What a weekend. I hope everything went well for you guys as well as it did for myself. The Sabres with an epic comeback. I mean, that's how I have to start this show because, as you know, this has been a long time coming for Sabres fans. Our first playoff win in 15 years. And it comes with four goals in the last eight minutes of the game. Crazy comeback. Look, we gotta get in on these Sabres futures. Um we already locked in, we won the division, we won that bet. Uh, but now is the time to really lock in, look at some of these futures seriously in the NHL, um, and think about some of these matchups that we could be getting. Um look, I'd be remiss to not mention the VIP in the Discord. The links are gonna be in the description. Okay, the VIP that's a place for value, not volume, not a lot of plays, not a lot of parlays, not a lot of lottery tickets, no 10k challenges, anything like that. It is a place where value trumps volume. So I'm really locked in um in the VIP. We're on a good run over there, and of course, the Discord is booming. We move into the Madrid qualifiers in the tennis world. I am mostly in the tennis chat, but uh the Discord is a place for everybody. I mean, they talk sports 24-7, 365 every hour of every single day. So come check that out, it's absolutely free. We would love to have you in there. Um, yeah, it's rocking and rolling. You know, make sure you have notifications on for the people that you want to follow in there because the chat is booming all the time. Alright, I've got one play for us here to start the day. I'm looking at this Royals and Orioles matchup, and I've got to be on the Royals here on the money line at plus 105. Uh, this is a spot I think that the numbers, you know, both both recent and underlying point toward Kansas City having the advantage. Okay, we gotta start with Seth Lugo. 2025 surface stats weren't great, you know, 4.15 ERA. Um, underlying 5.06, you know, fielding independent metrics. Showed some concern. He gave up a lot of home runs, a lot of walks, but early in this year, he looks like he's a different arm. All right, we're talking 1.49 ERA, 2.14 fielding, uh fielding independent variable. And more importantly, he hasn't given up any home runs so far. Knock on wood. Alright, that's a huge swing considering that was his biggest weakness last season. This is an Orioles team that is slumping. They don't do well on the road. Um, and if he's keeping the ball in the yard, he's limiting damage. Um, and if he's able to pitch more efficiently and keep that up, then I think this is gonna be a really good spot for the Royals to pull away in this game. Then on the other side, you get Kyle Braddish on the mound for the Orioles. He's still trying to find his rhythm this year after dealing with injuries uh the last few seasons. Just a lack of command. Uh 5.49 ERA, uh 4.6 walks per nine. That's a huge red flag. Uh just tells you that he's not in control of the at-bat. So he's falling behind early in the count, he's putting guys on for free. That's how innings will, you know, start to spiral and get away from you uh early, and then just puts your ballpen in a really, really bad spot. So I think the part that the line is kind of overlooking here is that the Orioles offense has not traveled well at all this season. 25th in road scoring, 3.2 runs per game. Now you've got a pitcher that's struggling with command, backed by a lineup that isn't able to really hit away from home. So that's not a winning formula. That's not a side that I could confidently be on, you know, here where this is basically a pick-em play, where we're getting the Royals, but I think at a really at a really good buy spot. So, you know, getting plus money with the more informed starter, uh the obvious edge in the in the pitching metrics, you know, if Lugo, you know, continues to uh suppress the contact, especially the hard contact, and not give up, you know, any home runs, Kansas City is going to be in a great position to uh to control this game to the finish line. So give me the Royals at plus money. I think they should be favorites in this spot. I think they the I think the line is wrong. So um good luck tonight. I'll be back here with more plus money plays from around the sports world tomorrow. As always, my name is Q from Blackjeep Betting, and I hope each and every one of you hit each and every one of your points.