Best Bets for Monday | MLB + NHL Picks & Predictions (5.18)

Q's back just in time for Game Seven. 

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Transcript

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What's up, everybody? Welcome back to another week of the Plus Money Sports Betting Podcast. My name is Q. You can follow me on all socials at bets by Q. And of course, this podcast is brought to you by Black Sheep Betting, where it is a dog's world. I just want to stop for a second, and I want to give a little bit of transparency before we get into the episode. Alright. This podcast is very dear to me. It's something that I started three years ago. And look, like it's a free podcast. I don't get paid to do this. Alright? But I mention this because I know that the podcast has been a little inconsistent lately as far as scheduling. Okay. Honestly, that's not really like me. Um, but a big part of that is these last few weeks, I've been working behind the scenes on a sponsorship opportunity that I genuinely think is going to benefit all of the listeners. Okay, so a lot of my focus has gone into putting that together the right way, crossing my T's, dotting my I's, so on and so forth. And on top of that, dude, like, I gotta toddler. Life's just been life in a bit lately, okay? But I do want to say, even though the public pod schedule has been shaky, I haven't disappeared. I'm still active on the socials. I'm active in the VIP. I'm active in the Discords, okay? Talking with y'all every single day. Um, so I appreciate those that listen. Um, appreciate everybody being patient with me while I get everything lined up because we're gonna crush this back half of the year. We're getting back into rhythm now. I'm excited for what's coming. Um look, like the podcast is something that's going to continue. Alright? It is a priority of mine, it's something that I value. It's like it's like my baby, okay? Um, so before we get into the card today, uh I want you to check out those links in the description, alright? Because if you missed a podcast or if I missed a podcast, there are other ways in which you can get the plays that I am on. One of those is obviously the VIP. The VIP gets every single play that I am on. Alright? There are a few different packages, um, so check that out. Uh, just look, there are some free trials if you want to do that. I promote the healthy side of gambling, okay? In my VIP, it's not a place where you're gonna, you know, hit the lottery overnight, it's not a place for parlays or 10k challenges. It is a place where value trumps volume, okay? We want value. We don't want seven plays just to hit three or four of them and wash our money out. How frustrating is that! So the VIP takes a completely different approach than you know what I see a lot of other handicappers do. Um, I've been in this game for a very, very, very long time, and um, I have learned how to use discipline to my advantage and have learned how to maximize my profits by value hunting, regardless of the sport. Okay, so if that sounds interesting to you, check out the VIP. The link is in the description. If not, come join the Discord, it's absolutely free. It's hosted by my friend Will from the Double Fault Tennis Podcast. And I mean, like, it's just the place where we talk sports 24-7, 365 every hour of every single day. I mean, we are in Rolling Garls uh qualifiers right now. I am a tennis junkie. You will mostly find me in the tennis channel um in the Discord. But I mean, we got something for everybody. There are chats and channels uh dedicated to particular sports from golf to MMA and everything in between table tennis, track and field, lacrosse, whatever it is that you want to bet on or that you find, you know, an angle in, uh, there's a place for you in the Discord. All right. That's also the place where like you are gonna find some of the 10K challenges. You're gonna find, you know, some really cool parlays that are worth, you know, pizza money or a little bit more, right? Um, but check it out, it's absolutely free. There's no catch whatsoever to get into the Discord. Check out the link, it's in the description, as well as the bet tracker where you can check every single bet that I have placed for the year. All right. Let's talk about the first of the three plays that I've got for you today. Okay. The first play, we are going to back the Washington Nationals on the money line plus 130 against the New York Mets. Okay. A lot of people are going to look at Christian Scott's ERA and assume that the Mets have the clear pitching edge. But you gotta dig a little bit deeper, and that's what I do. There are some warning signs here with Scott, okay? Sitting with a respectable ERA in the mid-threes, but the command has been very, very shaky for him, okay? Over five walks per nine innings, it's not sustainable against a lineup that is consistently putting pressure on pitchers, okay? Free passes become a major, major issue against aggressive offenses like Washington, uh, because one bad sequence can snowball quickly. We see it all the time. All right. On the other side, you've got Jake Irvin um on the mound for the Nationals. His ERA on the surface looks very ugly, but the advanced numbers tell us a much different story. Okay. Um is fielding independent, is over a run lower than his ERA. That basically just means that there's some negative variance here, and ultimately just some bad luck. All right. Missed balls, uh, you know, errors, just unfortunate things that you know happen. Okay. The strikeout jump, I think, also stands up for me because he's missing bats at the best rate of his career right now, and that matters against a uh New York Mets offense that honestly has been one of the weakest lineups in baseball through the opening stretch of the season. And as somebody who has a lot of friends who are Mets fans, I mean, normally this is like their glory time until they get to like, you know, the playoffs. Like the regular season, the first three, four months of baseball is never usually an issue for the Mets, but I mean, they're near the bottom of the league in runs per game. They've struggled to create consistent traffic on the bases, um, and then like just polar opposites in Washington. Um, their offense quietly been one of the better stories in baseball this year. They're putting pressure on teams with contact, speed, uh, timely hitting. Um, and they've especially been good at cashing in when they have runners in scoring position. I mean, that's probably the most important uh stat that you can look at when you're looking at uh at uh offenses, like how well are they doing when they have runners on second and third base. All right. But another angle that I like here is if this game gets to the bullpen early because of Scott's command issues, I mean, I trust Washington's offense irrevocably. I mean, they are in uh an offensive rhythm right now that I don't think New York is gonna be able to respond late. I mean, you saw the dramatic fashion and how New York won yesterday in the Subway series against the uh against the Yankees, but at plus money, I just think that this is a value side that's clearly on the Nationals who, you know, historically they haven't been a great team these last five, six, seven years. All right. So the Mets, they have a bigger fan base than the Nationals. You're gonna see a lot of people just kind of looking at this slate and saying, oh, well, the Mets just won yesterday, they came back. I'm gonna lay the small juice with the Mets. I think it's a trap. I'm gonna take the Nationals on the money line for one unit at plus one twenty. I'll see you at the counter. All right, second play. I'm back in the San Diego Padres on the money line. Same price, plus one thirty against the Los Angeles Dodgers. This one is simple. I think Michael King is pitching like a legitimate frontline starter right now. The ERA is strong, but more importantly, the profile is extremely flawless. Not a lot of hard contact, not giving up home runs. He keeps the ball in the yard and generating a lot of swing and miss stuff consistently. So when King is locating the fastball early encounts, his secondary pitches like that changeup become an absolute nightmare matchup. Now, on the Dodger side of things, you get Yamamoto, still elite long term, but the numbers do suggest that he hasn't been completely dominant yet. All right. I think we have to take an opportunity or take advantage of that because the hard hit rate is higher than expected, and the home run rate has crept up as well. Um something that you have to notate against the Padres lineup that can punish mistakes, um, especially in their own ballpark, which they will be in tonight. Okay. Um, not uh you know big travel spot for the Dodgers, but obviously fading, you know, LA, it's not really a comfortable spot. It just never feels good because you know the offense can explode at any moment, especially away from home where they have been one of baseball's highest scoring teams. But this matchup in particular, it it sets up better for San Diego than the market implies. All right, again, a value play. Padre's bullpen has been nails at home, um, one of the better home ERAs in baseball. That becomes huge in tight games. And like, look, like I think there's a value psychologically in backing teams like San Diego in divisional spots at plus money and at home. So you're getting a home dog in a divisional spot. I mean, these games do tend to play tighter, the urgency is different. Um, and getting a strong starter plus a reliable bullpen at home as a dog is usually a profile I'm willing to buy into every single time. All right. On top of that, I believe the Padres are one game back from first place. Okay, so I mean this game matters a lot. I know it's May, but this game matters a lot. I'm gonna back the Padres here on the money line, plus 130 against the Dodgers. Lock it in. I'll see you at the counter. That's for one unit. Alright, last play, and uh boys, this is the biggest hockey game of my life. Alright. If you don't know, now you know I'm a Buffalo Sabres fan, and I'm probably biased in this game. I think the Sabres win. But outside of some uh brutal playoff losses from the Buffalo Bills over the last few years, this is as emotionally invested as I've ever been in a sporting event. Okay? It's been 29 years since the Sabres have won a game seven. Twenty nine years, 10,000 days, and then some. That's generations of heartbreak, rebuilds, missed playoffs, goals that were no goals, false hope, goalie roulette, and maybe next year. Not to mention a handful of number one picks that didn't go anywhere, and now we finally get a game seven back in Buffalo with a chance to change the narrative, and honestly, I think this game flies over the total of five and a half goals at plus money. I would love to play the Sabres here, but that would be doing it wouldn't be doing any kind of service to the listeners because I don't know if I can see this game uh on a side clearly. Okay? I think this game goes over the total. It's plus money, it's plus 130. Everybody loves and people are gonna say, why is it plus money when these games have soared over the total pretty much every single game? Well, everybody is gonna talk about game seven unders because of the pressure and the tight checking. But I mean, this series just hasn't played that way. I don't think that it's gonna change. I mean, these are two very young teams, um, they create way too many high danger chances, and um, you know, but like Buffalo leads the entire NHL postseason in high danger shots with 106. Montreal, right behind them, 105. The Canadians have scored 22 high danger goals this postseason, second in the NHL, while Buffalo Um has scored 19th, fourth overall. Alright. Through this series specifically, Montreal has actually outscored Buffalo 14 to 9 from high danger areas. The craziest part about this though is that Montreal has been ridiculously opportunistic offensively. We watched them score three straight goals on their first three shots in game six and four straight in game five. This team does not need volume to score. We saw that in the Tampa Bay game seven, okay? Meanwhile, Buffalo has been you know just absolutely peppering on the shots lately, okay? Sabres have heavily outshot Montreal in both game five and game six. Um, 36 shots in each game. They are generating a lot of pressure, okay? They're at home, they're getting looks, and Buffalo just has multiple guys near the top of the postseason leaderboard in high danger chances. You get Alex Tuck, you get Tage Thompson, they both have 14 high danger shots in the postseason. Zach Benson has 13. Um Tuck already has the and Tuck, Alex Tuck is the Buffalo, he's the hometown kid. I mean, he's already has three high danger goals. He's actually the only player on the Buffalo team that has scored a goal in a game seven. All right. Um Helenius has become a sneaky X Factor um since entering the lineup. I mean, five of his seven shots have come from high danger areas, and he's the only player in the series with multiple rush goals. Okay, that matters because both teams have already scored five rush goals in this series. Okay, this game has explosion potential. And then you get to the goaltending volatility. Sounds like UPL is gonna be in net. Uka Pekka Lukinen. We call him UPL in Western New York. And um he's gonna decide this game one way or the other. All right. During the regular season, he was elite in high danger save percentage. A huge reason why Buffalo went from dead last in the East to basically the hottest team in hockey after December. But in the playoffs, UPL has been all over the place. He's been extremely inconsistent. I mean, he's capable of stealing a game, you know, like he did in relief in game six, but he's also capable of allowing allowing five high danger goals in a single night like he did in game five. Okay, the volatility is exactly why I think the over has value. I wish that it didn't. I really do. I wish that like I could comfortably say play Buffalo minus one and a half at plus 170 or whatever it is. But because if this game opens up even a little bit, it could just avalanche very, very quickly, okay? Um and honestly, like these teams being young, it just makes me like the overmore. Montreal is the youngest team in hockey, Buffalo is the third youngest team in hockey, neither team has been good at home this postseason. Um Daleen, our captain, has never played a game seven. Tage Thompson, our alternate captain, has never played a game seven. The nerves are real. But but nerves, they don't always mean low scoring. Okay, sometimes nerves means you know, just brain farts, defensive breakdowns, overcommitting in transition, bad clears, rebounds left, you know, right in front of the goal in dangerous spots, aggressive empty net situations late. I mean, there are game breakers everywhere in this matchup. Cole Caulfield, Nick Suzuki, Alex Newhook, Tage Thompson, Alex Tuck, Rossmas, Dalen. Um, and then speaking of Dalen, I mean, what he did in game six was legendary. Five points facing elimination. The only defenseman in NHL history to have a five-point playoff game with the season on the line. I mean, one goal, four assists. The building HSBC arena is going to be insane tonight. I think Buffalo wins, I really do. I hope that they do. For the sake of my sanity, for the sake of my grandparents, and for the sake of Western New York. I think Buffalo wins tonight, and I hope that they do. But from a betting perspective, I can't even think like that. I think the over five and a half at plus one thirty might be the sharpest angle, the best play on the board. I think you're gonna have some sharps that overthink themselves and try to just hammer the under. Um seems like a psychological trap here. Uh because like I don't know, dude, with five and a half, like, you can still cash even if my heart gets broken. All right. So um if things get to 2-1 by the second period, I think buckle up. We're in for one. But I mean, if if it's 3-1 at any point, I mean, this team is going to they're gonna pull their goalie late. So, I mean, I like the over here plus 130 in the Montreal, Buffalo Sabres, game seven. All right, lock it in for one unit. I'll see you at the counter. So the card today, Washington Nationals on the money line plus 125, San Diego Padres on the money line plus 130, and the Sabres Canadian over five and a half at plus 120. Good luck tonight. I'll be back here tomorrow with more plus many plays from episode 21 as a boy cycle. Each and every one of you at each and every one of your best.