Best Bets for Tuesday | MLB Picks & Predictions (5.19)

Q's back with more plus money picks from the diamond. 

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Transcript

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What's up everybody? Welcome back to another episode of the Plus Money Sports Betting Podcast. My name is Q. You can follow me on all socials at BetByQ. And of course, this podcast is brought to you by Black Sheep Betting, where it is a dog's world. Few links in the description. One is for the VIP. That's where I drop all of my official plays. It's designed for disciplined betters with consistent unit sizing, those that are looking for month-over-month profitability, okay? Not a place for parlays, not a place for 10K challenges, just a place where value trumps volume. The second link that's going to be for the free Discord chat. It is hosted by Will from the Double Fault Tennis Podcast. It's a place to hang out, share your bets, celebrate wins, cope with the losses. Closing in on a thousand members now, building a winning community. Definitely come join us. It's absolutely free. We talk sports 24-7, 365 every hour of every single day. As we move into the clay swing and rolling girls uh qualifiers, you'll usually find me in the tennis channel late at night, early in the morning. So you definitely want to be in there. Um, if you want to have notifications on for me, go ahead and do that because I will be dropping some plays in there as well. Alright, before we jump into today's card, let's recap yesterday because you know, one of those nights where it just perfectly describes sports betting. All right. The Padres came through for us at plus 130 and get they got the win against the Dodgers, but the Nationals lost uh in extra innings, man. It was just brutal because I mean those extra inning losses just they sting, man, because you're so close to cashing the ticket, and then one swing or a bullpen mistake, it flips everything. I hate the ghost runner rule, um, but you know, it is what it is. I think the Nationals lose 12 to 7, and it was a lot closer than what it looked like on the scoreboard at the end. And then, of course, the heartbreaker Sabres fan here, and um look, dude, it's just it's rough being a Buffaloan, alright? That game was pain. We had the over uh in the biggest hockey game of my life, um outside of you know, some of those Bills playoff runs, but not only do the Sabres lose, but the game stays under the total. We had a goal called back um that would have set us up for success. Um but game goes to OT, Montreal uh wins it, Alex Newhook 3-2 is the final score there. So just one of those nights where the emotional investment is probably worth more than the bet itself. Um, so if you watch that game, you know exactly what I mean if you're a Sabres fan. But that is sports betting, all right? We get to move forward, we stay disciplined, we're gonna get back to finding value on the next slate. So let's get into today's card. Um, yo, first one here is I like the Brewers on the money line, minus 105, Jacob Mizarowski on the mound. Exactly the type of pitcher um that I love backing before the market fully catches up. Raw stuff is absolutely ridiculous, triple digit velocity, elite strikeout, upside. Um, hitters are gonna look uncomfortable facing him. Doesn't really matter who it is. Uh, when you have a guy who can completely dominate in inning with swing and miss stuff, every game instantly becomes winnable because you know he's able to neutralize the lineups by himself for stretches at a time. And and really what I love about Milwaukee here in this spot, they don't need an explosive offense to support him. Okay, they can manufacture runs, steal a base, play clean defense, and let the pitching carry them. That's a dangerous formula for opponents because uh the Brewers hand a lead to the bullpen, they become extremely difficult to chase down late in games. Um, and then you know another thing when you look at Mr.owski, it just doesn't seem like hitters have adjusted um to him just being so dominant. So you're gonna get a lot of players that are seeing him um for the first time. Well, I guess not for the first time after playing the Cubs in a divisional matchup, but um I mean this kid is jumping off the charts, okay? Fastball gets you just I mean, just blows right by you by you. The slider tunnels beautifully off of the uh fastball. So, you know, I think that Chicago is gonna have a really rough time in this one. I think defensively, the last few games have been really sloppy. So until the sports book starts to adjust a little bit, I'm gonna keep back at Mizorowski on the mound. Um he's hanging ace level um stuff, but they're not giving him ace level prices. I think this one should be close to the minus 160, minus 170. So I'll take I'll take Milwaukee minus 108 uh on the money line, lock it in for one unit, and I will see you at the counter. Alright. Second play here that I like today is the San Diego Padres plus 135 over the Dodgers. All right, we got Griffin Canning on the mound, he's gonna get the start. Yes, fading the Dodgers is always uncomfortable, okay? Just based off the lineup itself, the team. I mean, it's they're juggling our team, but they're not playing like it right now, and the Padres are going to capitalize. We were on them last night. Um because look, divisional games at Petco are different. These matchups always feel like they're intense, they're more emotional, and and Padres usually rise to the occasion at home. So I think Griffin Canning um is a little better than his surface numbers suggest. Um, there have been stretches in the season where his command and swing and swing and miss stuff um have looked really solid. I think you know you gotta bring your A-game here against the Dodgers. He's gonna be especially locked in. So when he's getting ahead and counts, the secondary pitches become a lot more effective than just the fastball. So he's capable of putting together quality innings against good lineups, and then obviously, you know, if you hand that ball to the bullpen, I mean, you're in for a rude awakening. I mean, this is Padres bullpen's one of the best in baseball, if not the best. Um, obviously, they have the best closer in baseball and Mason Miller. Um, just absolutely ridiculous. I mean, a closer with you know true consideration for Cy Young is just absolutely insane. I mean, the Dodgers scored in the first inning last night, and we had them on the money line. The game ended up 1-0. Alright? Um, it's gonna be sweaty. I think this angle has a lot of value. Uh the Dodgers are one of those teams that, you know, they naturally get I don't know if you're gonna catch the Dodgers as a dog against anybody all year. At least not right now. Alright? It's one of those teams that they get naturally inflated in the market because uh casual betters just love backing them. Can't blame them. They can create opportunities on on the other side, um, especially when San Diego is at a home rivalry spot. You know, Petco, one of the better home field environments in baseball, when the crowd gets going. And, you know, if the Padres can scratch across early runs like they did yesterday and force the Dodgers into the bullpen, um, I think this game becomes extremely live for San Diego because that Dodgers bullpen, it's it's their glaring weakness outside of like Otani not really hitting the ball right now, knock on wood. Um, I hope he gets back to it, but not today. Um, I also think that the Padres on Up is just built to create pressure. I mean, they don't always rely on the long ball. They can string together hits, extend innings, uh, create very uncomfortable at-bats. So in a rivalry game, divisional matchup like this, the pressure matters because one defensive mistake here and one ballpen hiccup completely swings to momentum. So if I had to rank the two plays, um uh I just look uh the Padres here at plus 135. I'm gonna take it every single time. All right. Um, so lock it in for one unit. Padres on the money line plus 135. I will see you at the counter. All right. Two plays on the board today. We're on the Brewers Moneyline against the Cubs with Jacob Mizarowski on the mound. We're also on the Padres on the money line at plus 135 for one unit against the Dodgers with Griffin Cannon getting the start. So two plays on the board, two units in play. Good luck tonight. I'll be back here tomorrow with more plus money plays from around the sports world. As always, my name is Q from Black Sheep Betting, and I hope each and every one of you hit each and every one of your bets.

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Peace.