Episode 43: AJ Brown Week Is Here

Most NFL trades are straightforward; this one could reshape your entire fantasy team and NFL outlook. Why is AJ Brown’s potential trade to the Patriots causing such a buzz? Because it’s about the strategic cap move, team dynamics, and a rare window into how NFL executives play chess with future drafts.

On this episode, we break down the high-stakes negotiations behind the scenes. You'll discover how June 1 is the magic date that allows teams to spread out massive dead cap hits—saving millions—and why that timing is critical for the Eagles and Patriots. 

We explore the subtle signals pointing toward a possible deal, including draft strategies, team needs, and AJ Brown’s clear preferences. Plus, we reveal how a trade involving a first-round pick in 2027 or 2028 could be the ultimate win for one side, and a game-changer for NFL fanatics and fantasy managers alike.

We also dive into how this trade is a rare move for the NFL: a premier receiver under 29, with high production and a strong personality, potentially heading to a team led by a coach with personal ties in Mike Vrabel. 

You’ll learn why the Patriots, despite draft struggles at receiver, see the value in acquiring proven talent like Brown, and why the Eagles' calculated decision to move him now could boost their super bowl odds and cap space.

Why does all of this matter? Missing out on this trade deadline could mean watching talented players slip away, leaving teams to gamble on draft picks or lesser-known free agents. The opportunity to reshape rosters, cap strategies, and fan expectations makes this a pivotal moment in the NFL.

Whether you're passionate about fantasy football, a fanatic of NFL strategy, or just love knowing inside secrets, this episode offers insider insights on one of the year’s biggest trades. Stay tuned, this week could deliver the final move that changes everything. Get ready for a deep dive into NFL chess and the future of AJ Brown, the Eagles, and Patriots.

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Alright, welcome into the season episode 43. Uh reminder to hit subscribe on YouTube if you can, or follow on Apple Spotify wherever you get your podcast. We would really appreciate that. Uh this is we're chiming in here on a Sunday night. Uh we're excited to do this episode because this is on the eve, Nick, of June 1. And why is June 1 important? Because we're basically hitting AJ Brown week. Right? It's a week we now you and I, to be fair, have not talked a ton of AJ Brown in our recent episodes because I think quite frankly, throughout the spring, people were tired of talking about it. I was tired of talking about it.

SPEAKER_01 0:36

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 0:36

And we said if something's gonna get done, it's gonna happen on June 1. Um in the NFL world, it feels inevitable that this is gonna happen. I'm gonna get into why from a contract standpoint in a minute, but you mentioned too fairly recently when we did our show, maybe it was about a month ago, uh, you had said, because you were kind of like, why would they get rid of him for a while, at least during the season? And then more recently in the spring, you had started to change your tune a little bit and said, it seems like it might make sense for this to happen. So before we get into specifics about where why this is gonna happen with AJ Brown or why it feels inevitable, do you still feel the same way? Do you still feel like this is this is going to happen?

SPEAKER_01 1:16

Yeah, I mean, I think it'll definitely happen. I think, I mean, I I'd imagine everything's pretty buttoned up and they're just waiting for the day to pass. So the salary cap hit changes and you know it's not a big hit to them. Um, I just think back to you know, moments in my career when I was in St. Louis the next year, you know, they moved to LA, they're in Oxnard, and everything they were telling my agents, like really that they were gonna trade me, but they still want me to be there for offseason training. Um, we still expect them to be there, all these different things. So I went to Oxnard, if you remember, for you know, two weeks. Um, Tori and I brought, you know, we just had our dog Henry. We didn't have any kids at the time, and uh, we were there, and you know, it was very clear that I was not a part of the future of the team in any aspect. Just you can just tell how people are treating you, and you know, walking through the buildings, like in meetings, no one's gonna you if you ask a question, they don't really want to spend time on in. I think that's a tough part, you know, in the in the NFL, so you sort of realize that. And then it was, hey, you know, drafts coming, and I forget how everything was set up at that time, but they did say, Hey, there's a team that's really interested in you. Uh, we're gonna allow you to talk to their head coach. So I had talked to this head coach leading up to like the NFL draft, and if there's a potential trade that was gonna happen, all this stuff. This team said, We really want to trade for you, we just want to give you a heads up. Um, and I was just in a position where um I didn't really want to be a part of the Rams after everything, and I don't I think they wanted to move on for me, obviously. And so eventually I left offseason training. Um, you know, your dad had had open heart surgery. I went to Tory was in Wisconsin, went to spend time with your dad and Tori um while he was recovering and and just to get away from football. Because when you're when you know you're not a part of the team, like it's really pointless to be at OTAs and be in the facility.

SPEAKER_00 3:06

Um which is important to point out, he has not been at OTAs. So that's the big thing.

SPEAKER_01 3:10

Watching that, and if you see what players, players are gonna be respectful. Listen, a lot of these guys in the locker room are buddies with AJ Brown, even if he's not gonna be wearing the midnight green, Kelly Green, the Eagles colors next year, they're still brothers. They won a Super Bowl together. They they went to battle on the field, they played together, they worked together. There's gonna always be that respect. But they're also looking forward to the 2026 season. So they're gonna focus on that. That's everything they're saying in the building. I'm sure they've talked about it. It's like, listen, we're gonna be respectful to AJ. Um, everything's gonna work out for him, it's gonna work out for us, but like we're on to 2026. Let's focus on the people in the Nova Care facility. That's who we focus on. And if you look at all the press clippings from all the players and all the coaches, that is what it's been. Yeah, um, which means that he will be gone. I mean, uh if he was gonna be there, they would say, Hey, we just we can't wait for him to get him back because he'd be a big part of this offense. Like, I don't even think Sean is mentioning him as a part of the offense at all. I don't even think he used his name. Devontae Smith is now the number one. Makai Lemon is now the guy that everyone's talking about is like, hey, AJ Brown's gonna be gone. A lot of pressure's on you right now, but hopefully the kid just you know just focuses on what to do day in and day out. But I say that to say it's gonna work out for both sides. There's gonna be respect there. Um, I know Eagles fans have been frustrated this last year. I think the big question is I've been curious is like, where's it who where is he gonna go? Uh, it has to be New England, I would think, because that's the only team that's been really talked about, the Vravel connection. I I look back to when I was traded to St. Louis in 2014. I went and did uh the Super Bowl Media Day, and they started asking me, and I had never heard this like, hey, there's rumors that you're gonna be traded to St. Louis. Like, I just recovered from a collarbone injury. I'm having a great offseason. I'm ready to go back and I'm gonna have a great fourth year in the NFL. I have never, no one has ever told me I'm being traded to St. Louis. I got asked that like three times. That's weird. Well, a couple weeks later, I get a call and I'm traded to St. Louis. So everyone's always been talking about the New England Patriots and Mike Vravel. Well, I'd imagine that's where he's going. I would be shocked if he's not going there. So that being said, that's just history of my playing career and what I see. He'll he'll he'll most likely be gone in the next couple of days and go to his new team.

SPEAKER_00 5:18

So, given that no deal, the the assumption is that there's like a handshake deal in place throughout the spring, maybe even that started before the draft, that would not be finalized until after June 1. And we'll get to why that is in a minute. But it's felt that way for a while. And so, in theory, the Eagles would then be able to fetch, possibly fetch other offers if another team were to decide over that period of time that, hey, wait a second, we want to get in the sweepstakes for AJ Brown. So the Patriots assume that level of risk of like, hey, there's a handshake deal in place, but the Patriots could, or excuse me, the Eagles could bail at some point if someone else steps up. There is no, like AJ Brown does not have a no trade clause in his contract. Okay, just to be very clear on that. However, any team that's giving up a first round pick, or possibly, we're just assuming maybe a first-round pick in 2027 or maybe even 2028. Any team giving up a first round pick is going to want to know that the guy they're trading for wants to play for them. Especially considering AJ is a productive veteran that has already voiced displeasure in the place that he's coming from. They don't want to deal with that. And so naturally everybody knows he's gonna want to go play for Mike Vrabel. They had a good relationship in Tennessee. And so he wants so that just makes too much sense. So if you're wondering, like, well, why wouldn't another another team step in? It's still very possible. However, it becomes less and less likely, knowing that AJ has has has very strong preferences for what he wants to do. Okay. So and then look, whether or not you're an Eagles fan, this is a big deal because you have a team that went to the Super Bowl last year in the AFC and the New England Patriots, uh, that really need a piece like this. Now they went for Romeo Dobbs, who's they signed him in free agency, good signing for them from the Green Bay Packers, good, good wide receiver, but they don't have a piece like AJ Brown. And then you have a premier team like the Philadelphia Eagles, who, you know, had a little bit of a step back last year, right? Um they're a playoff team, but disappointed in in a few different ways, didn't go as far as we would have liked to see them go back when the season started. So it's a huge deal that these teams would consider dealing a premier receiver that's not even 29 years old yet. Big deal, right? Now, why June 1? Now, I many of you have probably heard guys talk about this a lot. I was really clear and short about this, is that AJ Brown, the the reason people wait till after June 1 is it gives them a chance to spread out dead money. So had they traded AJ Brown before June 1, the dead money, meaning the bonus money on AJ Brown's contract, bonus money is typically like amortized over the life of a contract. So let's say you sign a five-year deal and there's a $20 million signing bonus, you can take that bonus money over five years, so four million bucks a year and hit the salary cap for the for just that portion of the contract of $20 million signing bonus, $4 million a year for five years hits the cap. Right? Cap space is critical as you're building a team. If you trade a player over the life of that deal, all that money that had yet to hit the cap in future years accelerates into that year of the trade. Okay? So let's say I think for AJ it's roughly $44 million of dead money. If they trade him before June 1, all 44 million boom in 2026. That's painful. Howie Howie Rossman is not one of the best GMs in all of football taking $44 million caps. That's not how this works, right? He's really good because he's creative and finds the best way to get out of tough situations. So, what does Howie do? Likely, what we foresee happening this week is that he gets a trade this trade that has been like hand there's been a handshake on happens June, like the night of June 1, after business on June 1, or June 2nd or later. And that 44 million is spread out over 2026 and 2027, which is massive for the Eagles from a cap hit standpoint. That's why they've sat on this for so long. Now, what's the risk? The Patriots get cold feet, could happen, right? They decide we don't want to do this. Uh, what's the risk for the Patriots? Well, that's obvious. Well, they they have to sit tight till June 1. Some other team comes in the mix and says, never mind, we'll give up a first rounder for 2027. So then the question becomes what are the Eagles asking? So I don't think, Nick, I don't think the Eagles have gotten the Patriots to guarantee them a 2027 first-round pick. Because there was a report about two, roughly two weeks ago, that they're not close on a deal right now. And I I gotta believe, based on the timing of that report, that it was someone in Philly that threw that out there because they're not getting the first round pick they wanted. Now it might be a first-round pick in 2028. That's possible, right? You give us AJ now, we'll give you a first-round pick, not next season, but the season after. Very possible. The reason 2027 matters is it's because it's supposed to be a loaded draft class. A lot of really good players in this draft class coming up. That's the thought in NFL circles, right? So those are the those are the things to keep in mind as we approach it. That's why this week is so big. The reminder June 1 is tomorrow, which is Monday. June 1. You won't hear anything about this until 4 01 p.m. Eastern time or after. Okay, so it's possible there could be a report that breaks tomorrow night, which is Monday night, or if you're watching this on Monday, tonight. But in all likelihood, you're not going to hear something at night or Tuesday, June 2nd, moving forward, because as a per the city per the collective bargaining agreement, a a deal simply cannot be consummated before then to avoid the cap hit. So this is how we play in chess, moving things around and trying to find what may be the ideal trade partner. Let me ask you this if the Eagles get, and here are the signs too to keep in mind. This is important as well. The Eagles traded up for a wide receiver. Signs that I think this is imminent. The Eagles traded up for a wide receiver in the draft. We all know that. Makai Lemon, right? Good draft. Like good draft pick. We all love it. I applaud that pick. The Patriots had nine draft picks in this last draft in April. Didn't take a receiver. They signed Romeo Dobbs, but Romeo Dobbs not a true number one.

SPEAKER_01 11:07

There's a big reason why they didn't take one.

SPEAKER_00 11:09

Right? So there are signs all pointing to this. So let me ask you this. If this happens, if it's a first rounder in 2027 or 2028 that goes to the Patriots, or excuse me, that goes to the Eagles, and AJ Brown goes to the Patriots, who wins that trade? You can't say both. Who wins that trade?

SPEAKER_01 11:30

I would have to say the Eagles. Um because they know with what happened last year, and I don't say that in disrespect to AJ Brown. So if anyone cuts this clip out there, you gotta get context. With everything that happened last year, um, all the frustrations that were built inside the building and everything, obviously they his displeasure with what was going on. The Eagles knew that this going into this NFL draft this offseason that they would most likely have to move him, that they're doing that, and that's making them better. Because listen, you don't want to have to deal with that. I mean, we talked about it all season one of our show of every week there's comments being made that now the OC's having to have answer questions in media, then Jalen Hurts, then Nick Siriani. Everyone's con instead of focusing on football, we're focusing on what AJ Brown's saying, which isn't the isn't what we need to be doing. So they don't want to do that. Now, it makes so much sense to go to New England because you gotta think about this too. Like Mike Vrabel was visibly upset in Tennessee when they traded him. Um when they traded him after three years with him, visibly upset. And now in New England, like the only team I think that that's gonna even have a chance of getting a first-round pickup is New England because he knows AJ Brown the best, right? Like all the other teams, they know AJ Brown from talking to other coaches and playing against them and what they've seen on film, and that's pretty outstanding, you know, his style play, his receiver, but no one knows his personality like Mike Vrabel. So my guess is with what Mike Vrabel thinks about him, like he's gonna go on. But what's made me sort of have cold feet about the whole situation is what's been going on off the field with Mike Vrabel, right? I mean, that's the biggest thing in New England, and there's even been questions about will he be the coach there going on to this season because of everything going on, all the extracurricular that he's having to deal with. So what do you mean? Exactly. Um, you know, and I know that they're trying to work through it. It sounds like his family's trying to work through it, but like that's a lot, man. That affects the locker room, that affects a lot of different things. Um, so that's the one reason is like, man, maybe they're they're trying to just focus on in-house right now and not do this. But um, you know, I know I've sort of gone around circles, like he'll most likely be traded in New England this week, is my guess. And then it'll be curious to see who Howie and the Patriots uh sort of share that information with to break the news. You know, they always have their guys that's gonna break the news so that they can give them a favor down the road. So we'll see who breaks it.

SPEAKER_00 13:54

If Howie calls you tomorrow to come on the season to break any news and pick up the phone. Okay, you know, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 13:58

I mean, I I think uh you know, season two is gonna be big for us this year. We have a lot of exciting news to share in the coming weeks, maybe a month or so, as we button things up. Um, so a little teaser there. Um, I think season three, we might be able to get some of that information. You know, season two is gonna be a nice building thing, a lot of great opportunities. Um, but season three, I think we might be able to get a couple of the inside scoops.

SPEAKER_00 14:21

So, from a just real quick though, from a Patriots standpoint, um you know, I was thinking about this earlier. Like the Patriots have not drafted all that well a wide receiver. Uh, I go back to like Jalen Polk, who I think came out of Texas Tech. Jalen Polk was a second-round pick two years ago. I don't even think he's on the team anymore. Second round picks matter, right? Yeah, they they matter a lot. Yeah. Taekwond Thornton was another second round pick back in 2022. I don't believe he's on the team anymore. And I'll go back to 2019, which is a while ago now, but Nikhil Harry was their last first round pick at wide receiver. Arizona State. He was a good player at Arizona State. I didn't love the draft pick when it happened in real time because I watched him play a lot in college. I didn't think he was he translated all that well to the NFL, but he was a good college receiver.

SPEAKER_01 15:04

Who was the bet who was in that draft class? Do you remember? I know you have a great memory of all these stuff.

SPEAKER_00 15:08

I have no idea. Oh, yeah. Um that was decades ago. But my point is that they they have not drafted all that well at receiver. And so from a Patriots standpoint, because again, each each each fan base is going to look at this differently. Like the Eagles look at it and say, oh my gosh, we free up some cap space. Uh, we get rid of a an issue with the position, even though he's super talented. Um, but if you're the Patriots, you look and you say, okay, now we can remove like that element of chance of trying to draft a true playmaker at that position, and we get a proven commodity there. And if he's happy and he gets along with Drake May and Mike Vrabel likes him, and you know, Josh McDaniels likes him and all that, everything works out well. Maybe maybe it works out well for them. Hard to say, right? So could it still be a win for the Patriots? Sure. Like, I think this has a chance, to be clear, has a chance to be a win-win. Although I do agree with you, ultimately, I think it benefits the Eagles more if they get a first-round pick out of this. Now, reminder on the Eagles jet chart, with no AJ Brown, Devonta, I'm just hitting the top guys, Devontae Smith, Mikhail Lemon, uh, Dontavian Wicks, who they traded for or who they signed from uh Green Bay, uh Hollywood Brown, Elijah Moore. You get Sean Mannion going with this group. I mean, that's a that's a talented group. And like and pair them with the tight ends, too, right? I mean, there's plenty of talent at the tight end position as well. Patriots, on the other hand, if they add AJ Brown, it's AJ Brown, it's Romeo Dobbs, it's Mac Hollins, and Demario Douglas. I'll take that Eagles receiving core, even without AJ Brown, and considering the pay, I'll take that AJ or that Eagles receiving core all day long with a creative offensive coordinator and just what they can do in the running game as well, assuming they patch things up up front and have a healthy offensive line this year. I really like that. So this is gonna be an interesting week. Again, we've been waiting, we've kind of been quiet on AJ Brown the last couple months because I know the speculation gets old, but it's here. And this week is gonna be interesting. This won't be the only show we do this week because there will be some stuff to talk about as the week goes on. I would be, at this point, I would be, I don't know about you, Nick, but I would be shocked if we fast forward to you know whatever Friday is of next week, June 5th or whatever it is. If we fast forward and we have not heard anything about that's gone on, now it still could happen middle of June. It's possible. I'd be shocked if we haven't heard anything by the end of this week.

SPEAKER_01 17:19

No, I mean, I I imagine we'll be doing a reaction show on you know, Tuesday night, Wednesday. Um, you know, depending. We also have kids and that's also why we're doing this on a Sunday. Is we you know, there's some soccer games you're coaching, so I gotta give Eva a little shout-out.

SPEAKER_00 17:34

I gotta get my I gotta go get the trophy. Should I go get the trophy downstairs?

SPEAKER_01 17:37

Hey, go get the trophy.

SPEAKER_00 17:38

You know, I took the third and fourth grade girls with my brother to it. We uh we won the tournament. And the third and fourth grade girls' soccer is very important to us. So don't don't laugh at it.

SPEAKER_01 17:46

Hey, we were there, we were there with the kids to support them. We went to the semifinal game the other day, or I guess yesterday. It's been the weekend went fast. It was outstanding, and then today, very competitive championship game. Uh, they won 2-0. It was fun to see the celebration. Um, so congratulations on that. That's why we're doing this on a Sunday. We didn't have time over the weekend to get it in because you're coaching your kids, and our sports have settled down. So we're out supporting our, you know, the cousins and my nieces. So outstanding job. Congratulations.

SPEAKER_00 18:14

Okay, before we go though, uh, one more quick note, NFL note. Uh, this is notable, and I don't want to overreact to it because there's still a long way to go. Patrick Mahomes, as we all know, late last season tour is ACL. Tore is ACL and LCL, right? Jacked up his knee pretty good. Mahomes is in OTAs right now, doing individual drills in seven on seven. I'm not gonna, you know, do a screen share and show you the drill of him dropping and throwing the ball. Yeah, I'll say this he he does look a little ginger, right? Like, no question. He does not look like himself, but he's out there, feels a little bit more for show than anything else. Because let's put it this way, they're being so careful with him. Now he is throwing the ball in seven-on-seven. Yeah, obviously, nobody's allowed to get within 10 yards of him. Okay, they are so concerned about anyone getting near him that he's not even allowed to do like motion, he's not allowed to motion a receiver across the formation because they don't want anyone to hit him on the way by. That's how careful they're being. Okay, so to be very clear, like long way to go for Patrick Mahomes. But as a leader, he's out there, he's not running full speed, he's not cutting, but he's dropping and he's throwing the football just five months after ACL and LCL surgery. His target is to be ready for week one, which is September 14th, is the opener against Denver. Uh, that is his goal. By the way, that'll be here before you know it. This year's flying by. Um, Nick, your thought like, is it is it more for show just to be like, hey, I'm out here throwing the ball around five months after surgery, but I still can't run and cut? Or is this meaningful? What do you think?

SPEAKER_01 19:43

I mean, I think it's meaningful because he's obviously been rehabbing really hard. There's also leading up to this, um, he had his golf outing in Vegas, his charity golf outing, where they showed a video of him swinging a golf club. And you and I both know there's like torque on your knees when you swing a golf club. So he's doing that, and then being out there throwing. I think too, it's also a mental thing. Um, when you're when you're constantly rehabbing, you don't get to step on the field and you're just watching practice, it's tough, especially that's a good point. I mean, I was never, you know, Pat Mahomes and the fantasy or the franchise guy and all these different things. So, like for him to watch would be probably pretty difficult, especially during OTAs. You're trying to get to know the young guys, the new guys, the draft picks, all these different things. So he gets the opportunity to go out there, he gets to, you know, work on uh just getting some fundamentals back. His few yeah, he looked very ginger, but he should look ginger. The fact that he's out there is outstanding because there's also players out there that just showed up for OTAs for the first time, and he's probably been there rehabbing and arguably, you know, could be the best quarterback in the NFL. I mean, what he's done is outstanding. He's gonna go in the hall of fame, all these things. And I think it's a great representation of a player that plays for Andy Reid. You know, players that play for him have a lot of respect for Coach Reed. I do, you do. Um, and for him to be out there and be who he is and what he means to the NFL says a lot. Um, it's a lot for you know, when kids are watching him do that too, I think that's pretty awesome because a lot of kids that look up to Pat and Pat being out there um at practice with his teammates while he's recovering from a significant knee injury um is a great representation of what athletes should do. And I'm really proud of him for for doing it. It's great for his teammates. So I think for him it's a mental, it's a mental thing. Just get back out there. I want to be a part of practice. I'm gonna build up. Then we're gonna have this summer break. I'm gonna hit rehab hard, continue during training camp. And the goal is week one. It's great when you have injuries to have those goals set out there, but then you realize like each day it's just getting a little bit better, getting a little bit stronger, staying on the rehab course, doing all those little things. So he's doing it, and hopefully he gets ready for week one. He's back out there playing football.

SPEAKER_00 21:42

It's a good point. I love the thought, the thought of like mixing up rehab and spicing it up a little bit, making him feel better about things, like putting that helmet on and throwing the ball to your receivers. Like, even though he hasn't really missed a whole lot because like he did it towards the end of the season, anyways, right? It's not like they've been playing since then.

SPEAKER_01 21:56

But like you go in, you know how it is. I mean. OTAs are great. I mean, you know, we could go into a we should have done an OTA episode. OTAs are great. You feel really good. You know, there's no stress. You're just playing ball. I guess if you're trying to make the team their stress, but like if you're there and like you're comfortable in the system, like it's a lot of fun. Like you're going out and practice practicing, you're competing against the defense if you're offense and you're talking smack. Um, it's not a long practice. You're also training weight room, you're getting fast, all these different things. And then you know there's summer break. But the problem is during summer break, I'd say you lose most of it, right? You got to get the timing back in training camp. But um, it's a good time of year for football. You're gonna see a lot of excitement, a lot of positivity in um all news conferences, people talking because they're excited for the season and they know summer break's coming. But you know, these guys are getting in a lot of good work right now, and you know, it's great to see Pat out there doing it. It's great to see the other quarterbacks show up and be with their team, so it's good.

SPEAKER_00 22:50

It's wild to think that June is here. Um, guys will be checking out pretty soon from mini camps and taking some time off before coming back for training camp. And man, when August rolls, dude, the season's gonna be in full swing and we're gonna be doing episodes on a regular basis. So we're looking for uh obviously looking forward to it. Uh, this has been episode 43. Reminder, please subscribe on YouTube. Uh, please follow however you want to do it on Apple Spotify. And we always appreciate you listening and reminder happy AJ Brown week. I feel like we're going to be talking again sometime this week. Thanks for listening.

SPEAKER_01 23:20

See y'all.