Your Fourth of July Cookout Just Hit a Record High — Here's What That Means for This Fall

The American Farm Bureau Federation just released their 2026 Summer Cookout Cost Survey — and this year's Fourth of July cookout hit a record high. Ground beef is now $14.06 for two pounds, the highest ever recorded in the survey. Pork and beans rose 13.8%. Fresh strawberries up 12.4%.

But here's what I want you to understand: the cookout numbers are not just a news story. They are a diagnostic. The forces that drove those prices — the cattle herd at a 75-year low, the tariff lag beginning to show up on canned goods, weather-driven produce disruptions — are the same forces that are going to drive your October and November grocery bills. They don't reverse between now and fall. They compound.

I'm going to walk you through what the data is actually saying, which specific categories are most at risk, and exactly what to do right now — this July and August — while the summer window is still open.

Find all of your supplies and equipment at www.thestackedpantry.com

Transcript

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Hello everyone. I hope that you had a great 4th of July weekend. And I'm guessing if you were the one who did the grocery shopping for the cookout, you may have noticed something. The American Farm Bureau Federation does an annual survey of what a classic 4th of July cookout costs. Now they're looking at burger, chicken, pork chops, you know, the usual sides that are at you know barbecues like that, strawberries, lemonade, cookies, and of course, do not forget the ice cream, my friends. A cookout for about 10 people. They just released the 2026 numbers, and this year's cookout cost hit a record high. Record high. The highest cost since they started the survey in 2016. That's you know, it's only 10 years old, but still the highest. Now, I want to be careful here. This is important because the way that the story gets told really, really matters. Uh, the Farm Bureau itself noted that the overall increase of about 4% is roughly in line with the broader inflation. This is not a shock number, okay? But I don't want you to hear, you know, quote, in line with inflation and stop paying attention because there's definitely more to this story. Because when you look at the specific categories, what went up, what drove it, and why you see something that matters a lot for what your grocery bill is going to look like in October and November. And that's what I want to talk you through today. Because the cookout survey is not just, you know, a news item. I don't think I saw it on the news anyplace. Uh, not that I was watching a lot of news, but for those of us that track this stuff because we need better hobbies, you know, uh, it's a signal, it's definitely a signal, and this year's signal is pointing at fall. Hello everybody, and welcome to Sutton's Days. If you're new here, my name is Lisa and we are all about pantry preparedness. Now, I'm gonna walk you through some actual numbers from the Farm Bureau survey because the averages hide something that matter a lot. Um, the headline for the whole thing, you know, is 73.82 for 10 people. Okay. Uh a classic Independence Day cookout, according to Farm Bureau for 10 people, cost an average of $73.82 this year. That's up $2.90 or 4% uh from last year. And as I mentioned, that 4% is close to the overall, you know, inflation. So in aggregate, the cookout is tracking with the broader economy, at least that's what they want you to believe. But the averages are made up of very different individual items, and some of those items move in ways that matter significantly for pantry planning. And you know that's what we're all about. Now, first it's ground beef because you know it's always ground beef first. Two pounds of ground beef costs relatively about $14.06, depending on where you're located. Okay, that is up 73 cents or five and a half percent from last year. Five and a half percent, and it's the highest beef price ever recorded in the Farm Bureau Cookout Survey. Now, granted, they've only been around for 10 years. Now, let me put that into context for you though. In 2020, two pounds of ground beef cost roughly eight dollars and thirty cents. It's a different day. In 2022, it was 9.40. In 2024, it was 13.33, and now it's 14.06. The Farm Bureau's own commentary is worth noting here. They said rebuilding takes time, so consumers may continue to see higher beef prices. Really? Um, that is a polite way of saying that there is no relief coming in beef for 2026, which I've been saying now for months. Okay, the U.S. cattle herd has decreased to its lowest level in 75 years. Rebuilding a cattle herd is a biological process, it takes time, okay? Uh, not months. And I think that's really important for people to just wrap around their heads because I don't know that everybody actually gets it, you know. Now, Wells Fargo, we got another player in the game here who also analyzes grocery pricing, uh, found hamburger prices were up 14% from last year, not five and a half. So, how do they get so different? The Farm Bureau survey looks at a single data point in time, whereas Wells Fargo is measuring year over year change. Both numbers are telling you the same thing, though, at the end of the day. Ground beef is expensive and it's not going down. Pork and beans, it's the stealth category, yes, it is. And here's one that kind of surprised me a little bit just because it's a little earlier than I anticipated. Um, pork and beans, it's the canned side dish, uh, recorded the largest percentage increase in the entire cookout survey. Pork and beans. Uh, it's up 13.8 percent. Yes, pork and beans is an interesting signal if you look at it because it is a packaged, processed product. Its price is not determined by the cost of fresh pork or fresh beans, even, you know, it reflects packaging costs, processing costs, and the same tariff lag dynamic on canned goods that I talked about on Monday, and I talked about last month, and I talked about on you know the month before. When when you see a 13.8 percent increase on a canned staple like beans, you know, uh, that is the tariff lag beginning to show up on our shelves a little bit early. That 13.8 percent on a can of pork and beans, of all things, is a preview of what's coming for other canned goods. We have to be able to recognize that because the cost pressures that drove that increase, steel and aluminum packaging tariffs imposed over a year ago. They were imposed over a year ago, but now they're starting to show up. Processing and manufacturing cost increases, it happens. You know, they apply across every single canned product in the grocery store, not just pork and beans. Pork and beans just happen to be in the lead at the moment for some reason. Uh, the rest they're gonna follow. Fresh strawberries increased 12.4% to five dollars and twenty-seven cents for two pints. Um, the reason is actually pretty simple. Uh, and you may remember it, a damaging frost in Florida reduced supplies earlier this season. That is a weather-driven supply reduction showing up directly in the price. You can't control Mother Nature, and honestly, I don't want to. Now, I mentioned this not because strawberries are a pantry staple, they're enjoyable, I get it, you know, but because this is how weather events translate to your grocery bill. They affect your grocery bill. Have you looked for orange juice lately? A late frost in Florida in the spring becomes a 12% price increase on July 4th, you know. Uh, fertilizer shortage in spring becomes higher grain prices in the fall. The mechanism is exactly the same. The calendar lag is honestly the only difference between the two. Now, chicken and pork, they're also up. And I've had a few of you asking with the beef, you know, pressure that's going on, is this going to affect chicken and pork? Absolutely, absolutely it is. Chicken breasts uh contributed to the overall cookout cost increase. And the USDA data shows poultry prices rose 1.3 percent in a single month from April to May. 1.3 percent. Pork chops rose 1% month over month, and 2.6% year over year. It's just amazing. What this means practically for you and me though, okay, the cookout categories that went up this year, they're not random. We should have been seeing this all coming. Beef, chicken, pork, canned goods, and fresh produce all moved upward. All of them. These are the same categories that are under structural pressure from the the compounded forces, you know, that I described on Monday. The fertilizer story, the cattle herd story, the packaging cost story, when you you're just stacking problem after problem after problem. And the cookout survey is giving you a snapshot, a 4th of July snapshot, uh of those forces already showing up in real prices. So it wasn't all bad news, not all of it, okay. What went down, but why that matters? In the interest of you know, giving you the full story, because it's not you know everything, uh, some things in the cookout survey actually went down. Homemade potato salad ingredients dropped nearly 18%. Let me know in the comments section, do you make your own homemade potato salad? Uh, largely, though, because egg prices fell as laying flocks recovered, recovered from the avian flu, uh, and potato chips also declined slightly. Now, I know there's a whole thing going on with a lawsuit about the avian flu and some significant price gouging, but it still ties in with it, even if it shouldn't have been as high as it is, you know, or it was. Now, Farm Bureau is right that in aggregate uh the cookout is roughly tracking inflation. If I stopped there, if I just stopped and said, that's the story, see you later by. Okay, you'd leave thinking things are fine, we're in line with inflation. Okay, we know about the how we the cattle herd and you know all that. But eggs are a weather and disease-driven category. Um, the avian flu recovered that reduced egg prices can reverse literally anytime here, and it typically is right around fall and winter that it really kicks in. And it's worth noting that Wells Fargo uh found that choosing convenience versions of these same things, you know, potato salad, macaroni salad, that kind of thing, uh, buying prepared instead of making it yourself, buying pre-cut vegetables instead of you know preparing the vegetables yourself, that it adds a significant cost, which to me makes you know perfect sense, and it's unfortunate that it needs to be said, but anytime somebody cuts your veggies for you, it's gonna cost you more. Anytime anybody makes your dish for you, it's gonna cost you more. Potato salads, like one of the cheapest things on the earth to make. So paying the elevated price when everything else is already so high, you know, you have to pick your battles, people. Um, the savings on homemade potato salad disappear entirely if you're buying the prepared version. I mean, it's gone. Okay, it doesn't even don't even think about it, it doesn't exist. Which honestly, most families do because it saves time, right? I know. The point is that the categories that are cheap right now have a structural reason to move. The categories that are expensive right now, they have structural reasons to stay that way. Now, okay, so the cookout survey, it's it's a useful snapshot. It really is. So I don't want to discount that. It's a useful snapshot, but I want to zoom out to the USDA's broader food price outlook because it gives you the full picture of what the forecast for the rest of 2026 is, not just the snapshot, you know. Um, beef and veal prices were 12.9% higher in May of 2026 than in May of 2025. 12.9%. Year over year, this has been going on, not month over month, so year over year. That's a significant sustained increase every single year, 12.9% higher. That's that's crazy, right? The USDA forecasts beef and veal prices to increase 7.5 percent over the full year of 2026, with a range of 3.1 to 12.2 percent, depending on conditions. How's that for a range? You know, the cattle herd is the lowest it's been in 75 years. We've talked this to death. Wholesale beef prices are at all-time highs for this time of the year, and this is the grilling time of year. This is when you know meat prices are always much higher. Consumer demand has remained strong regardless of the prices. The Farm Bureau said it directly though, rebuilding takes time. Same thing that I've been saying. I want you to hear that as clearly and from as many sources as humanly possible. Okay, this is not a temporary spike, this is not going away soon, it is not going to rectify itself meaningfully within the next few years. This is a structural deficit that takes years to resolve. Now, the optimists say 2028. I am not an optimist in this case, I'm saying at least 2029 because there are just so many factors in play. You know, you're not buying expensive beef and waiting for it to go back to 550 a pound. I need you to understand that that is not the trajectory that's happening. Buying that inexpensive beef right now and preserving it, whether that's canning or freezing or freeze drying, you know, what you're doing is you're creating a buffer as you move forward so that you will always be eating at the lower prices than the people going into the stores today. That's what you are doing when you are buying beef today. Sugar and sweets, yeah, the quiet category that's moving super fast if you're watching it. The USDA shows uh sugar and sweets rose 1.3 percent in a single month from April to May. What in April and what what would cause that? You know, but 1.3 percent. The full year forecast, what they're saying it's gonna do for the entire year, is six point seven percent. This is above the 20-year historical average for this category. For most families, most families, not all, sugar is a foundational baking input. You know, it's used in a lot of baking, some cooking, it goes into bread, it goes into preserves, it goes into the cookies and the pies that are honestly a meaningful input, you know, for uh fall and winter and family life and holidays and all that fun stuff. A 6.7% annual increase, annual increase in sugar prices is going to be felt more acutely in October through December, because that's peak baking season. So that makes sense. That's when we'll feel at the highest. Buying your baking staples now, if that's important to you, okay, in July, at July's prices, is a meaningful financial decision. Because if you make a lot of pies, if you make a lot of cookies, if you bake a lot of breads, you know, that sugar is it's gonna add up rather quickly. And so it's just good financial sense to stock a little bit extra to get you through that busy season. So you're not buying it at that price, you're buying it at today's price. Now there's fish and seafood. Because I don't know about you, but I like me some seafood. Okay. The USDA data shows fish and seafood prices rose 1.2% in a single month again. The category is forecast to rise faster than its 20-year historical average in 2026. Canned tuna and salmon, your most shelf-stable affordable proteins out there, right, are in this category. A case of 24 cans, okay, of tuna bought now at current prices, is it's literally protein insurance. That's that's exactly what it is. It's protein insurance at today's cost. I literally recommend buying at least a case of each if you eat them today, because they're good for three to five years. So there's no hurry to go through them, you know, that kind of thing. But with uh the increase in the cans in that material, um, that's going to impact the cost as we move forward. So why not stock up on this inexpensive protein today? Now we're gonna talk about poultry. Yeah, there is so much going on currently uh regarding the avian flu and the business practices, that's what we'll say, of some companies who increased the cost of their eggs. Basically, it was price gouging. That's that's what it comes down to. And so now there's a lawsuit going on about that. So if you remember, it got it got ridiculous the cost of eggs. Uh, I remember one of those 30 packs of eggs going up to like 26, 27 dollars. Just insane. And then miraculously they all plummeted right before Easter. So, you know, that got a lot of people going, what are you doing? I mean, fine. The birds, you know, all got the flu. They culled the entire barn because apparently you can't treat this stuff. But anyway, and I know, I know, but anyway, it's you know, I think they caused their own problem to some extent. But I also think that there is a better safe than sorry aspect to it, and it sucks. The whole thing just sucks, honestly. Um poultry rose 1.3% in a single month. The USDA uh forecasts poultry prices to grow more slowly than the historical average for the full year. So that's a bonus, okay? Uh, which is the more optimistic category in the in the entire protein group. So hopefully, with any luck, you know, eggs stay relatively inexpensive. They're a great source of protein. Now, the the poultry category though um carries the avian flu wildcard, and so you never know when that's gonna pop up. Egg prices fell because laying flock recovery from the 24-25 avian flu outbreak uh brought supply back up. Okay, it it takes a few, not as long as a cow, but it takes a little bit. Now that recovery can reverse just like that, you know. Any significant new outbreak in the fall, uh when the bird flu tends to be honestly more active, would ripple through both eggs and chicken prices. So we will see that if it resurges. It is the category, quite honestly, uh, where the optimistic forecast is most contingent on things not going bad. So we can cross our fingers and hope. Now, the categories that are forecast to outpace historical averages in 2026. Whoay for the full picture, the USDA specifically identified seven categories. They nailed it right down to seven categories, okay? Forecast to grow faster than their 20-year historical average rate in 2026. These are beef and veal, fish and seafood, fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, processed fruits and vegetables, uh, sugar and sweets, and non-alcoholic beverages, which coffee predominantly you know leads the way on that. Seven categories, all in the direction of higher prices, all of them relative to your pantry. All of them. The only category forecast to decline is eggs, and even that is conditional. Now I want to connect these dots for you because I think. The cookout survey is it's useful, it is not just as a you know a story, uh, but as a diagnostic tool because if you look at that, it gives you that snapshot view, you know. Uh, when you look at what went up, which was ground beef, pork and beans, fresh strawberries, chicken, and you ask, why did each of these go up? What is the cause for this effect? You get a map of the structural forces that are going to drive up your fall grocery bills because they're all tied in together. Okay, this is just a a preview of what's to come, and it's it's a very nice preview, yeah, because it's gonna get worse. What your cookout is telling you, quite honestly, if you had one, um, is that the protein strategy I'm about to walk you through, it's it's not optional anymore. It's really not optional anymore. It is the financially sensible response to a supply situation that is documented. It's documented by so many different places, okay? And it's ongoing, it's not stopping. I talked about the 12 to 18 month uh tariff lag on Monday. Pork and beans going up 13.8 percent is the concrete grocery store evidence that the lag is now expiring. So you know it's not fall yet, right? But that lag is now starting to hit. That's stuff that you know has been waiting in the wings and just working through to get to that supply. It's here. Pork and beans up 13.8 percent. The packaging costs, steel, aluminum that were absorbed by manufacturers for the past year are now in the price of the can. It's not so much the contents, it's the can. Pork and beans is not an isolated case either. It's not, it's a leading indicator. So it's the basically the first one through the gate, letting you know that hey, the tsunami's right behind me. Every other canned good in your grocery store was manufactured using the same steel and aluminum that got more expensive. The contract negotiations that set new real retail prices for canned goods is happening now, right now, and will show up on shelves throughout the back half of this year. This is gonna be a very interesting six months. Every can of tomatoes, every can of tuna, every can of beans that you buy now is priced before the full tariff lag has reached the retail shelf. That window is closing, my friends. I've been telling you this for two months now. Unprecedented vantage point to see that we know that window's gonna close. So we have this amount of time. You have roughly eight to ten weeks, and that doesn't mean that it's gonna stay low until then, it means it's going to gradually increase when you layer weather-driven crop disruptions on top of uh fertilizer-driven reductions in yield, on top of cattle herd deficits, okay, uh, you know, on top of packaging cost increases, I feel my voice going up. I know, you know, it's just crazy. You get a grocery bill that is being pressured from every single angle. Your 4th of July cookout is just the earliest readout of all of that. So here's what I want you to take away from this data. This is it. The price that you paid for your 4th of July cookout is not the ceiling. It's not the ceiling, it is the floor. Okay? This is your baseline, 4th of July. Everything from here on up is going up. A little or a lot. It's going up. What you build this summer is your protection against a fall that is going to look like your July 4th cookout receipt times a multiplier, you know. So whatever we paid July 4th for that food come this fall, you can multiply that by two, by three. It really depends, you know. So now we know the problem. Now we know why. Now we know what didn't give us a problem, but still might. You know, there's a lot of stuff to soak in there. But now's an action plan. Are you ready for an action plan? Because I know that I am. Now, this is not a uh a generic stuck up recommendation, okay? I'm gonna give you specific priorities, specific quantities, and specific reasoning for each one. So I hope that you'll hang with me. Priority one is to pressure can your proteins now. Get that stuff in jars, get it on your shelf, okay? This is probably the most urgent one. Ground beef is at an all-time cookout high, all time, and is heading higher structurally. Chicken and pork are also under pressure, so they're gonna be headed in the same direction too, because the more people that come off of beef, land on poultry and pork. Canned fish and seafood is definitely trending up. I think it's always trending up, but it's still just like everything else, trending up. The most financially intelligent thing that you can do with protein right now is to buy it on sale at the best price that you can find and pressure can it for long-term shelf stable storage or vacuum seal it and put it in your freezer and make sure that you've got some kind of backup to keep your freezer running. Okay, you want to watch for uh prices on sale for your ground beef. Uh, when you buy it, buy as much as your budget allows. 10, 15, 20 pounds. You know, figure out what you use roughly in a year. There's 365 days, that's 365 dinners. Divide it by three. Years ago, I said I do this rotation thing, okay? 365 days a year. 100 of them are beef, 100 of them are chicken, a hundred of them are pork, sixty-five are gonna be seafood or fish. It's the easiest way to do it. So now I'm looking at a hundred pounds of beef, a hundred pounds of chicken, a hundred pounds of pork, and sixty-five pounds of seafood. 65 pounds of shrimp just literally makes my moth water, okay? But that's the easiest way to look at it, honestly. And if you're not buying beef, then you just change those numbers around for what you are buying. It's it's actually pretty easy to figure out, so don't overthink it, okay? Now, priority number two is your canned goods because of the tariff on aluminum and steel. Uh, tomatoes. Oh my gosh, I've been telling you guys tomatoes for a couple months now, okay? This is your July and August project. Make it a priority if you have not already. A 25-pound case of Roma tomatoes processed into crushed, you know, tomatoes uh gives you 15 to 18 pints, give or take, of shelf stable tomatoes that are so much better than anything that you buy at the store, okay? But if you're not a canner, that's fine. Buy commercial. No shame in this game at all. It I I am a canner and I still buy commercial as a backup. So you want to make sure that you are stocking up reasonably. Look at six months, okay? So, which different recipes do you use regularly on rotation that require canned tomatoes? Whether it's sauce, whether it's actual canned tomatoes, whether it's rotel, whether it's ketchup, you know, all of it because it's all going up, it's already being seen. Now, canned beans. If you press your can, then uh, you know, you can do your own. And it's always cheaper to buy the dry beans and can your own. But if you do a batch or two of those, you know, this summer, it's it's definitely going to give you a significant savings. Uh, if you buy commercially, stock and supply right now. Right now, because not only is that protein, but it's fiber, and they're still cheaper than a steak, you know, and you can make a lot of really great meals with them. Canned vegetables, like your corn, your green beans, your carrots, you know, the staples, okay. Um, I know that I'm intentionally getting lima beans uh because I'm not canning them, and spinach because no, I'm not canning them. Um, you know, there's some things that it's just not worth my time to can, and so I will buy those commercially. Uh, I in addition to the tomato products that I did, I super stocked on the canned spinach and the canned butter beans and the canned lima beans because there's a certain somebody in the house that loves them. So, you know, if you can grow or access farm quantities of any of these, any of these, then this is the moment to do it. If not, build your commercial supply now. Buy your canned vegetables now. Priority number three is your grains and baking supplies, the terraflag category again. Sugar, flour, oats, pasta, rice, cornmeal. Okay. The USDA specifically forecasts sugar rising 6.7% in 2026. The terraflag on packaging that is currently showing up in pork and beans will show up in packaged grain products too. Packaging is packaging regardless of what's inside of it. So everything is going to be affected by that. So here's what you can do: buy your baking supplies for fall now. Specifically, 25 pounds of sugar at the current prices, stored in airtight containers. Sugar does not expire, do not vacuum seal or oxygen absorber it. Okay. Flour, 25 to 50 pounds if you use it. Uh, just airtight container, that's all that you need. If you want to keep it in the freezer, then it obviously lasts longer. Otherwise, commercially ground flour only lasts one to two years, depending on where you live, before it starts to go rancid. You guys, I'm not just saying this to hear my own voice. Literally, I have people backing up this statement in the comments. So, um, oats, definitely 25 pounds, put it in mylar with an oxygen absorber. Pasta, 20 pounds. Pasta is one of the most stable, affordable, versatile pantry staples that you can store. Rice, 50 pounds in mylar. Put them into, you know, quartz size bags, divide it all into quartz size bags, oxygen absorbers, seal them, throw those bags into buckets, and you're good to go. At current prices, before the grain price effects of the fertilizer story flow through to retail, that's what you want to do. That's your list right there. Priority number four is your cooking oils. Go get a gallon of whatever it is that you use. Go get a gallon, okay? Uh, priority number five is your beverages, typically often, you know, overlooked category, unless you're a coffee drinker and then you're kind of obsessing about it. Um, but it's looking to go up another 5.2% in 2026. Now you know the coffee prices have already gone up crazy, just crazy. I can't remember the the percentage that I gave on Monday, but I I think I gave a percentage on Monday. It's nuts how much coffee has gone up. Totally explainable, totally explainable, okay? But that doesn't make it any more uh palatable. Your powdered drinks, absolutely, your drink mixes, your juice concentrate, anything that your household uses. If you don't use it, don't buy it. Money's better spent on other stuff. Um, this category is definitely worth buying ahead in uh because of the continued price pressures, you know. Now, the budget framework that I'm gonna give you is actually pretty simple. Um, and it's not a huge one-time spend. I need you to understand that. Don't go out and number one, don't go get it just because it's on the list. Number two, don't wait to get it all at once, just get a little bit of it every single time you go grocery shopping. Okay, let me put it into rough numbers so that this doesn't feel overwhelming. Okay, but take a look at this. So ground beef, 15 pounds at the current price is roughly about 100 bucks. Cantuna, one case of 24 is 45. Rice, 50 pounds, rungy, about 40 bucks. Uh dried beans, 20 pounds of mixed, you know, beans, whatever kind, is 35 bucks. Pasta, 20 pounds for 30 bucks, because the price just went up recently. Uh, sugar, 25 pounds for 20 bucks, flour, 25 pounds for 20 bucks, canned tomatoes, a case, roughly about 25 bucks. Um, and that's a case of 12 that I'm referring to. Um, oats, 25 pounds for $25, cooking oil, one gallon for about 35 bucks. Coffee, a three-month supply of the average consumer, not me, uh, $40. And then mylar bags and oxygen absorbers are about $25. So the approximate overall cost of that is $440. And you can divide that up over the course of eight to ten weeks, and it's a much more palatable bite out of your budget. This is not a one-trip shopping spree, okay? This is something that you spread out over eight to ten weeks, and what you have is your October and November groceries bought at July prices. That's a win-win no matter what happens. Now, don't forget, if you're a canner, 4 Jars is putting on some amazing sales right now. And no matter what the sale is, if you put in my code SUTNS10, you save an additional 10%. Get your canning supplies now. Uh, it's super important to make sure that you are stocked up. You know, I I have used 4 jars for six years straight. They are the only lid that I use anymore, and it's because they are a high quality and the right price point. Because, yes, there are other brands out there, the ones that completely ignored us during COVID, the ones that were uh created during COVID, but the cost is too high. It's not worth it. These are quality lids, a great company, and the price point is spot on. So if you want to check those out, go to thestackpantry.com. You'll find all of my links there. That includes for Mylar and Oxygen Absorbers too. Now, before I close, uh, there's you know a caveat to all of this. The Farm Bureau's own framing was that the 4% cookout cost increase is broadly in line with inflation. Okay, that is a true statement. If I were trying to alarm you, I wouldn't tell you that. So it is essentially a true statement. The scenarios where fall grocery prices come in better than what I've been describing, if avian flu does not resurge and egg prices, you know, stay low, if the Hormuz situation uh resolves itself, and you know, we'll see what happens there. Now, my caveat. The Farm Bureau's own framing was that 4% cookout cost increase is broadly in line with inflation. That's what they were trying to sell us, okay? And honestly, it's it's a true statement. So I I cannot I cannot negate that. If I were trying to alarm you, I wouldn't include that at all. Anything can happen between now and fall. Are the crops gonna produce more? Probably not, okay. Are uh, you know, there's are the cows gonna start breeding in you know quadruple time? No, they're not. The question, honestly, is whether you want to plan around the optimistic case or the realistic range of cases. I would rather err on the side of caution. I would rather be prepared and proven wrong. I want to be proven wrong, okay? I'm not telling you to buy everything at once. What I'm telling you is to start now, to be intentional, and to use the summer window before it closes because it's closing, whether you believe it or not. Your 4th of July cookout just told you something important. The highest cookout cost on record, led by ground beef at an all-time high period, with canned goods showing the first clear signs of terra flag. And that's not a fluke, my friends. It's not a fluke, okay? It's a signal, and we need to start paying attention to the signals. So, until next time, everybody, be safe. Keep stacking it to the rafters, my friends.