Ep. 15: Midwest Turkey Harvest Trends: A 5-Year Breakdown

In this episode, Luke is back in the saddle alongside his trusty homemade full strut decoy, kicking things off with an important update to Missouri’s 2026 turkey season regulations, specifically impacting youth hunters.

From there, Luke dives deep into historical turkey harvest data across the Midwest, breaking down trends in Missouri, Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska, and Illinois. While searching for patterns in population health and harvest success, one thing becomes clear—each state tells a very different story. Variations in bag limits, nonresident regulations, and season structures may all play a role in shaping these trends over time.

The good news? Turkey populations across much of the Midwest appear to be holding strong.

If you're heading out into the woods this spring, stay safe, enjoy the hunt, and good luck chasing gobblers. Don’t forget to share your success photos—we’d love to see them!

Thanks for listening to The Outdoor Aligned Podcast

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Hey everybody. Welcome back to the podcast. First things first, I want to say I'm going to change the name of the podcast. The Outdoor Line Podcast, something I try to be creative with, and it works. It does kind of line up with how I do things and how I want the podcast to be portrayed, but doesn't have a lot of meaning to me. Years ago, um, I started doing taxidermy, just doing school mounts locally here, and I called that Kyoto School Company. I'm wearing a hat right now that uh says that. And Kyota has always just had kind of a special place in my heart for multiple reasons, and just that name means more to me than the Outdoor Line podcast. So we're gonna change this to Kyoto Outdoors. In the future, I might might video some hunts, you know, might post something other than podcasts. So moving forward, it's gonna be Kyoto Outdoors. So look for that change. Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, Facebook should all be called Kyoto Outdoors from here moving forward, um, if I can easily make those changes. So bear with me on that. And then I'll keep selling these hats, hopefully. I'm gonna have some more of these hats made, may have some that Kyoto Outdoors instead of Kyoto School Company. I don't know. Just kind of a brand that I've had for a long time, and I might as well just keep that going. I like that more, I think. Anyway, to start off today, um, we're gonna talk more about turkeys. So kind of enjoyed talking about turkeys last time, and again, spring turkey season's right around the corner. I've got some friends that have been hunting in Florida, actually. I've got two or three people I know down in Florida, or four actually, I think, down in Florida turkey hunting this week, and they've had some success, and that's awesome to see. I'm jealous. I wish I was down there with them uh getting the season started off. But good for them and good for anybody else that's out and about uh hunting turkeys. I myself did a little scouting. We've uh my dad had been seeing some birds in a food plot near one of the places we hunt, and I thought, you know what, I'm just gonna get up in the morning and go watch that food plot. We got a big tower stand, like a deer stand that overlooks that food plot. And I was like, I'm just gonna go check it out and see what happens. And it was chaotic. Like, if it had been turkey season, it would have been the greatest hunt of of my life, if it had played out that way. Um so just sitting and watching, you know, I had like a hen come out early. I'm like, where are these birds at? And I I heard them gobbling on the roost, they're actually over on the neighbor, and it wasn't too long. Boom. Here was like I looked down for a second, seemed like I looked at my phone or something, and looked back up, and there was all these turkeys in the field. I think it started out with 14 hens and one gobbler. Come out full strut, just putting on an absolute show. These hens went all around the field, eating the clover. They went in some bare dirt, some of them were dusting in the dirt, and it was just super fun to watch. Like, I can't say I've watched turkeys that close to me. Like they were anywhere from 150 yards to 25 yards, probably at the closest at this time. And it was just enjoyable to watch, see him work, see that Tom strut. He fed just a little bit, but was more focused on keeping those hens corraled. Um, and it wasn't very long, way up in the north end of this field. Here come a lone gobbler, full strut comes into the field, and he's just kind of checking things out. He's not rushing in, he just he's in the field, he's looking, he's staying in full strut and just kind of working around up there. And he kept he kept inching closer and closer, and eventually, this tom that had these hens, he just like just started walking towards him. And that that second gobbler broke strut and turned around and started walking away and walked in the timbers. Like, I'm not having no part of that. So that was really cool to see. After that, I was hearing some other goblin from like where these birds were roosted, seemed like. I thought I was hearing two more, and sure enough, here comes a gobbler, full strut, come into the field, headed right for the gobbler that had all these hens, and he kind of flogged that gobbler, just kind of bat his wings at him, run right up on him, and run that gobbler off. Actually, that gobbler took off and kind of went in the direction that the first or the second gobbler did. So now we've seen three gobblers, and right behind this third gobbler was uh fourth one. He came out strutting, but he wasn't wasn't dealing with that gobbler that had all the hens. And these birds worked around forever. End up like this subordinate gobbler, like the second one, like a satellite gobbler almost. He got like 20 yards from me at one point. And these other ones just stayed out like 30 yards, all these hens were feeding, and then some of those first two gobblers, they circled around through the timber and kind of popped out over here on the side. And eventually, I'm sure a fifth gobbler popped out of the woods, walked right in front of me at 20 yards, messed around over here, and then came right back at 20 yards. He never did strut, never got too excited. I don't know what his deal was. He just wasn't super wound up like all the others. But I think there ended up being a couple more hens come to. There ended up being 17 hens and five gobblers. And just crazy. Um and all my years of hunting that area, I don't think I've ever killed a gobbler on that farm. Not saying they're not there, it's just never my go-to spot. And I don't think I've been missing out. I think it's just not like that during season. I think I just timed it just perfectly to see five gobblers and 17 hands all in the field in front of me. It was it was unreal. Like, really got me fired up. Wished I'd have brought a good video camera. I took a bunch of video through my phone, through my binoculars, but just awesome experience, honestly. Like, I don't know. Get out and scout, like, just go watch some birds. I I typically scout whatever from the road and see birds, and you know, may get out and listen in the mornings prior to uh turkey season just to hear goblin, hear where they're roosting, but it was really enjoyable to sit there and watch. And something else that was worth noting was you know, we're trying to prepare for youth season and we're thinking about, well, where should we get my nephew set up on these birds? Like if we're gonna hunt in this field, it wouldn't have mattered. You could have sat anywhere, and those birds eventually would have made it to you. I mean, there was you could have sat anywhere on the perimeter of that field, and that gobbler would have been in within 30 yards of you at some point if you were patient and just waited. Um, and if you could get past the hens, right? Uh that was really cool though. So moving on from that, something I want to talk about that I missed last week or last two weeks ago on the podcast was a new rule here in Missouri. And I actually heard about this rule on the radio. I'm listening to some radio station, and they were doing an interview with a game warden talking about the upcoming season, and they brought up this new rule that I did not know about. So for 2026 youth season, the youth season is typical rules. Uh, I think it's yeah, April 11th and 12th. You can hunt from 30 minutes before sunrise to sunset, so all that's normal. If your youth hunter kills their first bird during youth season, they can now hunt again on opening day of regular season. In the past, you had if you killed a bird during youth season, you had to wait until the second Monday of regular season to start hunting again. So basically, it took a week of hunting away for the kids, right? So they did away with that. Now you can instantly start hunting during regular season. I don't see any problem with that. I don't know what their reasoning was to have it the way it was before, and I don't know what their reasoning is to change it, but I think that's perfectly fine. Get kids out there, get them involved, get them on some birds, more opportunity for them, and I think can't argue that. Good for them. So, yeah, that's on Missouri U season. Um, I've also got, I did a little research here and just gonna focus on some Midwestern states. Um, particularly, I'm gonna talk about Missouri, Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska, and Illinois. So some Midwestern states here, and I wanted to look at recent uh harvest data for the last five years in each of these states just to kind of compare and maybe talk about some of their regulations, their bag limits, um, some of their historical harvest data. Like it was interesting as I went through this, and I wanted to share some of that stuff with you. So, starting off with Missouri, my home state, um probably the one I'm most interested in. So, this is the last five years. This data includes adult gobblers, jakes, and bearded hens, and this is the spring season only, doesn't include youth season. So, yeah, adult gobblers, juvenile gobblers, and bearded hens. So, bearded turkeys during the spring gun season. First, I want to mention that I think back in the 70s, the first season started with only a few counties open, and by 1985, all counties in Missouri had a turkey season. So that's kind of neat. Like turkey hunting in Missouri is relatively recent. As far as harvest data, the numbers peaked in the early 2000s. So I think a lot of you guys know, or I've heard lots of stories that yeah, late 90s, early 2000s, there's a long beard strutting in every green field in early spring. You know, like there was just turkeys everywhere, and I've not experienced that. My dad and some of his buddies just talk about kind of the heydays of turkey hunting. And I wish I could experience it. Sounds awesome. Sounds easy, right? Anyway, 2021, Missouri killed 34,595 birds. 2022, they were down a little bit, 33,359 birds. 2023, they made a heck of a jump up to 41,977 birds. In 2024, another good jump to 43,388 birds. 2025, another jump to 46,569 birds. So, something to note that 2024 time frame, it jumped up 2,000 from the year before. That was the start of all day hunting. So previously, you could only hunt till one o'clock on private or public land, and then 2024 that opened to be you could hunt till sunset. So maybe that contributes to some more harvest. Either way, the 2022 to 2023 season was a big jump. Nearly 8,000 birds that year. So very impressive. Like, I think that's good for Missouri. I think that shows an uptick in harvest. That shows that the population's doing well. Um, I don't think that there's any drastic changes in hunter numbers or stuff like that. So I think that truly is a good way to see what the population's doing. And I think the population's doing better. Even in my personal experiences, I feel like the turkey population has been better. We've had better hatches the last couple of years. We see more polts running around. I get trail camera pictures of them. Just things seem better. And as of right now, it is the end of March, and I'm hearing a lot of gobbling in the mornings, like from one spot the other day. I think I could count somewhere between eight or ten birds from one spot. And I don't it's been years since I remember that. Like when I was a little kid, maybe you could count that many birds gobbling, but so that's cool. I think Missouri's doing well. Um, for 2026, I don't know. I could see us getting up to that high 40,000 mark with the change in regulation for non-residents only being able to have one turkey bag limit instead of two. Theoretically, that should cause a decline in harvest numbers, but how many non-residents are really killing their two birds? Like, probably not a huge amount. Maybe some. I don't know. Another thing that's interesting, and I didn't look at any of this data, but Missouri does have a fall season, and some other states do not. And I don't know. We we don't kill, I don't think we kill very many birds in the fall. Something like 1800 in 2025. I would be perfectly fine if they'd close the fall season. I do like having the opportunity to shoot one with a bow if I'm deer hunting and turkey comes out, you know, you can take one that way. That is, I don't know. I kind of like being able to do that. Can't say I've done that. I think I've killed one ever, but the fall gun season just seems seems kind of silly. Nobody seems to hunt fall turkeys. And maybe we should. Like you get a long beard and f tag in the fall, you could go get after it and kill another one every year. But I don't know. There's too many other opportunities in the fall, too many other things to be hunting to worry about turkeys. I think save the turkeys for the spring. Um so that's Missouri. Like I said, population seems to be doing well. The harvest data kind of represents that. So moving on to Kansas. So a little history around Kansas, uh, they had their first modern-day season in 1974. They issued 400 permits and killed 123 birds in that first season, 1974. Their population andor their harvest data peaked around 2008, so slightly later than here. Missouri was early 2000s, Kansas 2008. They Kansas closed their fall season in 2023. I think that's a step in the right direction, especially if they were seeing turkey numbers decline. Um in 2007, they created the archery-only season. So, those of you that have hunted Kansas are familiar with Kansas, there is a window before gun season that's archery-only. Uh, so you can get out there and kind of get a head start on some birds. You can use crossbows, so whatever you want to think about that, you can have your own opinion on crossbows. As most of you guys know, probably that are interested in turkey hunting, Kansas went to a lottery draw system for non-residents in 2024. Again, I think this was an attempt on their part, seeing the population go down. They wanted to limit non-residents. Um, because I think, also, I think just non-resident hunting and out of state hunting and traveling to hunt, especially turkeys, is relatively easy and inexpensive, and it's a blast. And I think there's been an uptrend in that going on. And I'm like, well, I could do this too, you know. So we went, and I've got friends that still go do it, and good for them. I'm happy they're getting out there and doing that. I just think, like honestly, I think these YouTube shows like of DIY guys just getting after it and going hunting has encouraged a lot of younger people, like my generation, that are watching that stuff to get out there and do it. And I think it's great. But so that could be part of why these states are kind of putting a damper on non-resident stuff because they're seeing an uptick in non-resident participation. So, like I said, they in implemented the lottery draw system in 2024. You know, I think it was actually 2023. Because I think I have now three points. I've never I put in for the point system, but I've never drawn. Maybe it was twenty-four. I should probably trust my notes. So talking about uh upcoming Kansas Turkey seasons, youth season is April 1st through the 14th, which is pretty long window, really. That's kind of neat. Archery season is April 6th through the 14th, and then firearm is April 15th through May 31st, which is also a very long season. If I remember right, when I went out there, it was like the end of May. Like we were right at the tail end, and we had some good luck. It was it was a blast. But to talk about that draw system, too. So it's a point system, lottery system, just like other states do for big game and turkeys. In Kansas, you've got to pick your unit that you want to hunt in, which could be kind of difficult. Uh just kind of narrows you down and doesn't allow you to run all over the state and hunt different pieces of public land, right? You kind of got to pick the area you want to stay in and you gotta stick to it. But what that does, it'll allows them to manage those population levels on a smaller scale rather than just saying, cookie cutter, same regulations for the whole state. We're gonna break it up into these smaller regular or these smaller units and um regulate accordingly. So I know some of the western units, their bird numbers are a little lower, and I think it's harder to get a tag there, whereas some of the eastern units that have eastern turkeys, their their population's fine, and I think it's easier to get a tag there. I think. I've not tried to draw, but I from my understanding that's kind of how it is. So looking at their historical harvest data, um, in 2021, they killed 17,611 birds. I'm also gonna mention their success rate, percentage of success on these years, because it's interesting. 46% success rate in 2021. 2022 numbers down from 17,000 to 13,830 with a 40% success rate. So that makes sense, right? 6% decline in success rate, the total harvest went down. In 2023, harvest numbers were 14,989 with a 45% success rate. From that, 2024, 11,144 birds killed with a 41% success rate. So down from almost 15,000 down to 11,000. Big drop from 23 to 24. And in 24 is when they implemented the draw system. So I think what happened was there was less hunters, less non-resident hunters, I guess I should say. So a lot less birds were taken. What's interesting is in 2025 there was an uptick in everything. So like I said, 2024, 11,000 birds killed, 41% success rate. 2025 was 13,862 birds killed for a 54% success rate. So that being said, their draw system to me helped with that improvement. That made that improvement. They made an adjustment and it worked out in their favor. They killed almost almost 3,000 more birds, like 2,700 more birds, and they had a 54% success rate. So they had a 13% increase in success rate. So less hunters, more successful. So in 2024, more birds survived because they didn't allow so many non-residents to hunt. And then in 2025, they jumped up their success rate higher than it'd been in the last five years and probably longer than that before. So that's interesting. Uh I wonder if we'll see a change like that in Missouri since we implemented one the one turkey bag limit rather than two for non-resident, but I don't think we'll see much change. But I don't know. I I like that. They they recognized a problem with their turkey population. The harvest numbers were going down. They did something about it, and they made a jump and have more hunters be successful. So good good for Kansas on that. Moving on to Iowa. So a little history on Iowa turkey season, first modern season was also in 1974. They had 300 hunters. I couldn't find how many birds they had taken. Historically, even though they have pretty good uh kill numbers, historically, apparently one in five turkey hunters successfully tag a bird, which that doesn't seem very high, but maybe that's true. For 2026, Iowa's youth season is April 10th through the 12th, and then their seasons, and for me this is different. I'm from Missouri, we don't do this. Iowa is split into four seasons. Season one being April 13th through the 16th, season two being April 17th through the 21st, season three being April 22nd through the 28th, season four being April 29th through May 17th. So all those dates run together anyway, but I think as a non resident and potentially even as a resident, you have to specify which three day or four day, I guess four day season. You're hunting in. Then that last season, April 29th through the May 17th, that one's really long, right? That's two and a half weeks. So I don't know the reasoning for that, but it's just interesting. Um, coming from Missouri where you just have this one three-week season, it's kind of different. Um, they also have a resident archery only from April 13th through May 17th. So the whole season, you can also hunt archery. So if you want to be able to get out there and hunt more, choose to hunt with a bow. So talking about their harvest numbers, okay. First, actually, I'll mention that their non-resident hunting regulations are also a lottery draw system, uh, just like Kansas is. You have to apply, like as a non-resident, you have to apply four specific zones and seasons. So you've got four options for seasons, and I didn't check to see how many zones there were. So you've got multiple different applications you could do there. And it really kind of limits the non-resident people, if you ask me. I guess it, yeah, like if you want to be in that early part, you can only be able to hunt for four days, and you gotta narrow it down to a certain zone in the state, right? So I was kind of hard on their non-residents, and I think you could say the same about deer season. Iowa's hard on their deer hunters too, on non-resident deer hunters. Also leads to big bucks, right? So, anyway, looking at their spring turkey numbers, this I believe does include youth hunters for each of these. 2021, 11,725 birds. 2022, 11,946 birds, not much of a change. 2023, 14,843 birds. So pretty good jump. Almost 3,000 birds, 2,900 birds from 22 to 23. 2024, 16,089 birds. So almost uh like 1,200 birds jump from 23 to 24. Also, I will say that that 2024 season with the 16,000 birds was their record-breaking harvest. So that was the most birds ever taken in Iowa. And like I said, I didn't look way back, but that's what uh Google said, right? Uh that said that that was their new record. And then 2025, they were down 700 birds for 15,350. So it was interesting. 2024, they had that pretty good size jump, broke a record. Um seems like last year Missouri had a good hatch. I would think that Iowa would be similar. Maybe they'll see a record year or a near record year this year for 2026. Um so if you're hunting in Iowa this year, good luck. Moving on from that, I've looking at Nebraska. So Nebraska's had it kind of tough. They've had an approximate decline of 50% kill rate since 2010. So back in 2010, I think it was great, and nowadays it's not that great. I think in 2023, and I could have that wrong, it could have been the year before, maybe. I'm not sure. They changed from a three-bird bag limit to a tur two-bird bag limit. Additionally, I think in 23 they implemented a 10,000 permit quota for non-resident. Um, I think it used to be you could just go to Nebraska and buy your three tags, and didn't matter how many hunters came and did that. Um, but yeah, in 23 they implemented 10,000 permit cap for non-residents. Here's what's cool. And I don't know if this just shows people are learning and becoming more aware of that situation, or if this is more people hunting out of state, going on these trips, my generation, getting out there and hunting, traveling, doing these things. But here's what's cool. So in Nebraska, in 2023, when they implemented that cap, I think the that opens for purchase like in January sometime, early January, by March 24th, 2023, they were sold out. So those 10,000 permits had sold out. In the 2024 season, those 10,000 permits had sold out by January 25th. So two months earlier than the year before. So people were like, oh hey, we gotta buy these tags soon, right? Sooner than later, they're gonna sell out. So by yeah, by January 25th, they were sold out. So then in 2025, um, they were sold out by January 12th. So it had been open for 26 hours, was it basically one day. These 10,000 permits had been posted for sale and they were sold out in 26 hours later. And January's obviously passed. I didn't look to see what uh the results were in 2026, but I imagine they were quick. I talked to one guy, he said that he got on there and couldn't even get one. I don't know if it's that instant now, but it could be, I guess. Kind of like Taylor Swift concert tickets. You gotta be on there and be in the waiting pool and get a code or something, and then you still can't get tickets or tagged in Nebraska. Who knows? Nebraska's turkey season is April 18th through May 31st. Uh looking at their historical data, I think these numbers kind of show why they implemented some of that. 2021, they killed 14,541 birds. 2022, they were up to 16,489 birds. 2023, they were down to 12,302 birds. And I think that's when they implemented that. Yeah, when they implemented that change. So they are letting less hunters in. They killed less birds. I think that's I don't know. That seems pretty simple, right? 2024, they were down to 10,441 birds. Now that shows the decline. Same regulations, but they were down 2,000 birds in 2024. In 2025, they were back up quite a bit to 13,097 birds. So I'm curious what 2026 will look like for Nebraska. Um, I know some guys going. Um, I'm sure it's gonna be a blast. I'm jealous. I wish I was going. But hopefully their population's doing well, and maybe we'll see a similar, similar increase in harvest numbers from 2025 to 2026 as they did in 2024 to 2025. Good luck if you're going to Nebraska this year. Send me pictures. I'm jealous. Okay, looking at Illinois. So their first turkey season was in 1970. They killed 25 birds. That's cool. It's just not very many birds, right? I can't imagine. I feel like 25 birds get killed within a few square mile or a few mile radius of here, right? So that's just neat. Um overall, their harvest records are showing a strong and growing population. So there's been a pretty good uptick in uh their harvest records in recent years. Um, their youth season dates are March 28th and 29th, and April 4th and 5th, so two weekends for those kids to get out there and hunt. That's great. Their seasons are also different from what I'm used to in Missouri. Um, they have five different segments, and those segments are split between the south portion and the north portion. I don't know where that line is, but basically it creates like ten different seasons. So a north and a south, and then there's five segments of each of those. Overall, the south, the first south portion starts April 6th, and the north, the last north segment ends May 13th. So basically, it's open from April 6th to May 13th. Um, I think you can only get tags for certain seasons. I've known a few guys that hunt Illinois. Um, not certain on the details on that, but it's something like that. You can only you got to pick which uh segment or which part of the season you want to apply for. So these spring turkey season numbers do include youth hunters. Um, in 2021, they killed 13,383 birds. In 2022, right about the same, 13,701 birds. 2023, up almost 3,000 to 16,121 birds. In 2024, 17,208 birds, so up about a thousand. And then in 2025, their new harvest record was 18,189 birds. So overall, Illinois is booming on their turkey population. Their numbers are increasing. Shows they've got a good population. Their, you know, their regulations are working, their seasons are working, um, they've got a growing population. I think that's great. Um, good for Illinois. And so it's interesting to me to look at all these and just kind of compare. Uh each state, they all do things differently. Uh they treat residents and non-residents different, they treat the youth seasons different, they treat archery different, they treat uh the gun season different, uh, they treat the length of the season different. And it's just interesting to see. You would think that in general, all these Midwestern states, while they're not the same, obviously, but they're similar, you would think you would see similar trends in data. But really, you're not like like I said, uh Illinois doing great. Nebraska not doing so great. Um Iowa doing better. Kansas was doing good, then dropped, and then maybe back on the uphill after their changes in uh regulations. It's just interesting. Uh I thought I would see more of a generic trend over all these states, but we haven't. Either way, I think turkeys are okay. I think uh I don't know, five, ten years ago people were kind of concerned about the turkey populations. And I think I even remember thinking, like, man, like I hope turkeys are still around, you know, in the far future. I hope my kids get to experience turkeys the way I have. And I I feel way better about that in recent years. I've just we've had a lot of good hunts, we've had some good springs, there's there's still been plenty of birds. And like I've mentioned before, I think everybody that owns property can go out and do something to benefit the turkey population. Literally, doing work that makes the difference of saving one nest versus zero literally could mean 12 more turkeys in your area. Like, I think that habitat work or predator control, whatever it may be, like I think it's crazy what impact one person can have on your own farm, even. It's not like, yeah, you're helping the population, but it's statewide and everyone else is going to get to kill those birds. No, like if you go out and do some work, that's your farm that you're improving. It's more turkeys that you can hunt on your piece of ground. Uh so do some research. I mentioned it in the last episode, I'll mention it again. Do some research on what you can do to help the turkey population in your area. Habitat, whether that be burning, cutting some trees, predator control, whether that be calling coyotes or bobcats in the winter or trapping raccoons whenever your seasons are open. Uh just do some research on things that you can do to help your turkey population, and I think you'll be very pleased. And um, like I said, I've I try to do some around here to help. Is it helping? I don't know. We've got turkeys, so I can't be I can't complain about how many turkeys we've got. So happy to see that. I think that's all I got to talk about today, though, guys. Uh I'm getting amped up about turkey season. Um I'm thinking about going to another state. I don't know where, somewhere over the counter. We'll see. I like to worry about my two tags here in Missouri first, get them out of my way, then I can feel better about going somewhere else. But got my good old Reapin decoy here with me. He didn't have much to say again, but he's nice to look at. The turkeys really enjoy him. And like I mentioned at the beginning, look for Kyoto Outdoors on stuff moving forward. Sorry for the change. It's just something I feel like I needed to do. Just holds a little more special place in my heart. So if you see Kyoto Outdoors somewhere, please like, follow, subscribe. Like this on YouTube, like this on I guess it's on Apple Podcasts and Spotify as well. So look for the change on there. And uh we'll see you guys on the next one. Thanks for listening. Adios.