Two Wars & A King: Episode 25

In this episode of Alternate Shots, John Ellis and Richard Haass tackle two wars, a Royal visit, and the world of sports. The conversation starts with the Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and leave the nuclear issue for later, which the Trump administration appears to be resisting but Haass argues the US should run with. From there, they pivot to the war in Ukraine, where Kyiv’s battlefield resilience and drone innovation are quietly reshaping modern warfare and building opposition to Putin at home. They then wind their way to the limits of royal diplomacy during King Charles III’s visit to Washington and end with a discussion of the sub-two hour marathon and the post-NFL draft Giants. 

Hosted by John Ellis and Richard Haass

News Items on Substack

Home and Away on Substack

Produced by Dale Eisinger 

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:14

Hi, I'm Richard Haas.

SPEAKER_00 0:16

I'm the author of Home and Away. What used to be a weekly substack and now seems to be semi-weekly, not to be confused with bi-weekly, writing about things domestic and things international, and uh at least for the last two months, things Iran.

SPEAKER_03 0:30

So we're gonna discuss what you wrote today about developments in the Iranian war. But I wanted to start by reading first couple of paragraphs from a New York Times report to lead into your uh home and white piece today.

SPEAKER_00 0:45

I was kind of hoping you're gonna read from my substack, Sean. You kind of raised my expectation only to dash that.

SPEAKER_03 0:50

Oh no, no, no, no, no. We're leading with the news story, then we're going with your analysis. Okay? Okay. Fair enough. Got it? Yes, sir. Okay, good. So the New York Times reported today Iran has offered the United States a new proposal for negotiations that focuses on opening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the U.S. sea blockade on Iran as a way of ending the war and then tackling nuclear negotiations later, according to three Iranian officials. This caused you to sit down at your computer and do the following analysis.

SPEAKER_00 1:23

It's true. Interestingly, I recommended something like this a few weeks ago. I always thought that it was a mistake to put the nuclear issue up front, not because it's not important. It's obviously important. Iran, you know, we have a arguably a vital national interest that Iran not gain a nuclear weapon. But the history of nuclear negotiations with Iran is, shall we say, time-consuming. And we're not talking days, weeks, or months. We're talking years. And it's likely to be even or as much time consuming in the future because I expect there's a wider debate than ever in Iran about the desirability of nuclear weapons. The idea that Iraq got invaded or attacked for a lot of Iranian military figures, I expect will be used for them as evidence why Iran needs nukes. They'll go, North Korea doesn't get invaded, doesn't get attacked, but Ukraine did, and we did. So uh yeah, I just think it's going to be a difficult negotiation. And we can we can signal Iran that we're prepared to have this issue parked so long as they don't change the status of their nuclear capabilities. They don't further enrich uranium or anything like that. It's not ideal, but it's uh baseline. But you know, to have the straits close for weeks or months or years while this was being negotiated would be a calamity. The world would be in a deep depression. So I think the argument for a straight first approach is pretty strong. And the fact that Iran is saying it, John, I take is a good sign. It sounds to me like the blockade is working, that uh Iran is feeling the economic pinch. Their economy was in terrible shape before the war, the war made it worse. Might also be the Chinese are chiming in. China, there was an interesting piece also in the same New York Times today that said that China was feeling it. The issue is less their their stocks of fuel. China has a large petroleum reserve, but so many of the uh materials that form their supply chains are oil-dependent, all the plastics and other things. And the Chinese economy is in pretty rough shape. So the fact that Iran put this forward suggests to me that they are worried about a prolonged closure of the strait. So it's not that they've developed concern for anybody else, but they've got concern for themselves.

SPEAKER_03 3:32

Aaron Powell How realistic it's is it to believe, which the Trump administration apparently believes, that a collapse of complete collapse of the Iranian economy is imminent and that there will follow, therefore, the collapse of the regime. Is that wishful thinking, or is that is that in any way realistic?

SPEAKER_00 3:52

Aaron Powell One, there's no way of knowing. I would put it in the Department of Wishful Thinking. This administration has been guilty or prone to wishful thinking since the get-go. It thought that uh protests would bring down the regime, then military force, now economics. The Iran-Iraq war showed the resilience of this regime. What's happened the last eight weeks has further highlighted the resilience of the regime. I just don't think the United States can base a foreign policy on what I would say is a hope that somehow Iran is going to collapse. And meanwhile, every day that goes by uh has not only has the potential, but will start causing enormous harm. You know, the tankers that left the Middle East just on the eve of this war in late February, they've now arrived. So now we uh now we're into a different phase. And what's now$4 gasoline here will very quickly become$5 gasoline. And food, the fertilizer and the rest is already, we're already seeing shortfalls, and people will suffer from malnutrition or they'll they'll starve to death as a as a result. So I actually think, you know, we just don't have the luxury of playing a kind of who can stick it out longer, who can bear the pain longer. So certainly I'd sit down and explore whether Iran is uh anxious to reopen the straits to itself, anxious enough that they'd reopened it to everybody, everybody else. Let's see what their terms are and let's see if we can shape those terms. And none of this prejudices what we get one day in the in a nuclear or try to get in a nuclear arrangement. But I uh I would love to see the uh the administration adopt this. But my concern, John, and you hinted at it, is the administration may overreach. They may think, okay, we've been criticized so far for this war, but here's our chance to finally get it all. Here's our chance to uh recoup. Um basically get a deal of a totally open strait and a totally denuclearized Iran. We got them on the ropes finally. And I just think that that's yet again a misreading of Iran. And by trying to get everything, I worry that we'll get nothing.

SPEAKER_03 5:53

One thing that in your piece uh today in home in a way that is going to be controversial is you s think or suggest that the way to truly reopen the strait is to have some kind of straight transit authority, if you will, with the literal nations uh and Iran and the US and everybody else uh sort of administering it, overseeing its enforcement so that free passage is is enabled. So is that something that just has to be done because that's really the only the only way it's going to get resolved? Or it seems to me like it's the only thing that can quickly reopen the strait is to give some kind of regional or whatever authority that that enables free passage quickly. Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_00 6:39

Well it's that, but also I think we need we need to be realistic here. Iran has discovered it has a weapon of mass destruction, not nuclear weapons, but the ability to close the strait of Hormuz. So my view is what will it take for it to what's the metaphor? Sheath that sword or whatever metaphor you want to use. And if it means creating some new governance authority and possibly even allowing some fee charging or tolling to take place, if that's what it takes and we get the passageway open, the Iranians grant it's international, the fee structure is uh not excessive, all the literal states, perhaps perhaps some consumers of the region's uh energy are are involved. I can live with that. Is it ideal? Is it as good as we had nine weeks ago? No. But wars have consequences. And is it tolerable? Well, depending on the terms, the answer is potentially, potentially yes. It's a proposal that we developed. In this case, the Wii was me, Neil Ferguson, and Philip Zellico a few weeks ago. We put it out in the free press. And again, it's a it's a governance authority. Yeah, I don't mind that. Do I like the idea that Iran could charge some fees? No. But again, if the fees aren't excessive and they're shared uh with others and Iran doesn't have unilateral control over the strait, I would say that is uh a more than acceptable outcome, and we ought to take it.

SPEAKER_03 7:57

The second thing I wanted to talk to you about is the the war in Ukraine, where I think it's fair to say the Ukrainians have brought the war to a strategic standstill is the phrase that's being used, which is a remarkable accomplishment given the vast uh numbers that Russia's thrown at it and the vast numbers of people and soldiers that the Russia has thrown at the war. If it is in fact a stalemate, and it is, I mean, March, the month of March, the Russians advanced zero miles. What happens next, I guess, is the question from your point of view. Aaron Ross Powell, Jr.

SPEAKER_00 8:32

Let me just make a confession, John. When the Iran War started, I thought that it would be bad for Ukraine. I thought there would be a uh real loss of focus on the uh Russia's aggression. I was worried that a lot of munitions that might have potentially been sent to Ukraine uh would be used up. I didn't predict, but it turned out the US then would uh relieve sanctions against Russia. Plus even without that, Russia gained from the oil price increase. So all in all, I thought this would be bad for Ukraine. I'm glad to say I was dead wrong. Uh this war's uh been pretty good for Ukraine on balance, even though we erred by, I would argue, starting this war, which led to higher energy prices, by relieving sanctions against Russia and so forth. Turns out most of these munitions probably wouldn't have made their way to Ukraine, though I guess in principle the Europeans could have bought them and given them to you uh to Ukraine. And now that Hungary has had its change in government, the European support for Ukraine will become more uh manifest. But what this war has shown is that Ukraine, let me coin a phrase, is the arsenal of democracy. And through its drone technology in particular, Ukraine is on the uh, it's really it's in the vanguard of modern warfare. It's probably become the most capable military in Europe. It wasn't that long ago, John. You'll recall. The debate was can we afford to bring Ukraine into NATO? Uh, because that'll expose NATO to the burden of having to defend Ukraine. Well, right now, it looks like NATO gains if we bring Ukraine in, formally or informally, because Ukraine is so capable. It's a battle-testered, technologically advanced uh military. And everything you said is true. It's increasingly fighting Russia to a stancile, which by the way, it's basically done over the last four plus years. Russia's gained precious little given Russia has, what, well over a million casualties, dead and wounded over these years. I think what's saving probably Putin and the Russian economy is this war. And again, because of the energy uh revenue implications for Russia. But strategically, Ukraine is more than holding its own. So I take this as a really, a really good sign. Plus, it's forging new relationships with Saudi Arabia and others. It's less isolated. I think Ukraine, almost before Europe, has entered the post-American phase of its national security. And in that sense, it's probably something of a weather vane for the future of Europe. Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_03 10:55

And my idea for for Ukraine, for the Ukraine military is that the Pentagon buy it, you know, to uh not a hostile takeover, but it's just an acquisition, and that would significantly uh improve our war fighting capabilities, it would seem to me. Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_00 11:12

Well, but it says a serious thing. I think what we should do is enter into joint ventures or however you want to structure it, and we would get trained to build drone production cape facilities here. And because these things have to be constantly innovative, it's not a one one and done, but we would get teams of Ukrainians over here to work with us in a constantly innovating drone drone manufacturing program. I think that would be great.

SPEAKER_03 11:36

Yeah, this is this is I think it's you know, we have all these empty factories and warehouses. We could just set up Ukraine drone ink and flood it with money, and we'd have a much more terrifying military, really.

SPEAKER_00 11:49

If you think more capable offensively and defensively alike. And there's also a whole new domain of anti-drone development. And Ukraine is is far advanced. No, increasingly our military looks uh seriously outdated. Yeah, I I don't know the all the details, John, but these reports that this administration has turned down certain Ukrainian offers of help along the way is just crazy. Trevor Burrus, Jr.

SPEAKER_03 12:13

Insane. I mean, literally insane. I mean, the the leading drone fighters in the world come to you and say we can help you, and you say no thanks. It's just it's it defies belief. But the other thing I noticed uh from doing news items and coming across all these sources is that there are numerous reports just in the last week that dissatisfaction in Russia, public unrest, whatever you want to call it, about about the war has increased dramatically, apparently. And there's some polling. Polling in Russia is very difficult, obviously, but there's some polling to indicate that Putin's approval rating, such as it is, has declined fairly markedly, and that on the telegram channels, et cetera, people dissatisfaction is is uh all the rage, if you will. Is that what you're hearing as well?

SPEAKER_00 13:05

What I'm hearing, you know, there's a lot of analysts, more expert than me, who thinks this was kicking in three months ago, and then again Putin got a boost from the energy consequences of this war, but that's not gonna save him. There's a real irony here when you think about it, John, that this has the potential of being Putin's Afghanistan. It was Afghanistan that played a fairly central role in ending the Soviet Union, and it became their imperial adventure, their war of choice, if I may use my favorite coinage, that ultimately contributed to the demise of the Soviet Empire and the Soviet Union itself. Um I think this has the same potential. That this, you know, this was Putin's war of choice, and he had uh you know fever dreams about his ability to reconstruct the Russian Empire and extinguish an independent, Western-oriented Ukraine, et cetera, et cetera. And I love the idea that Ukraine may have delivered the ultimate comeuppance, and it would have happened already if the United States had only been there. I think we've delayed this development, but it may be happening all the same.

SPEAKER_03 14:10

Switching subjects to the British royal family, uh there's a famous uh story that's not entirely confirmed, that in 1965 the British government was concerned about Lyndon Johnson's disfavor because, according to the President Johnson, British weren't supportive enough of the Vietnam War. And at the same time, Britain was going broke and needed the help of the United States to sort of tide it over. And so Princess Margaret, the sister of the Queen, toured America and ended up at the White House. They had a fabulous night of dancing and lots of drinking, which the Brits thought was bad for the brand, but it turned out to be a triumph, at least in episode three of the Queen of the movie.

SPEAKER_01 14:58

It's good to see you doing your research for this project. I'm impressed.

SPEAKER_03 15:02

I've been all over AI on this one. And so now we have a special relationship that is in terrible disrepair, I would say. And Prince Charles is here on our shores. King Charles is here on our shores. Is is there anything he can do to repair relations, or is it is it more reality TV?

SPEAKER_00 15:27

I think it's more the latter. It'll be a feel-good night, though I'm sure the president will find between 14 and 44 opportunities to say it would have been a better night if only we had a proper ballroom to host the uh dinner for the uh his royal highness, uh, or his majesty, rather, for his majesty. Um no, it's not going to change the basics. The last I checked, Britain will still be outside Europe after uh this. The Prime Minister will still be the politician that he uh that he is. The British economy will still be the economy that it uh is. So the the relationship will not grow, shall we say, uh decidedly more special. I don't see President Trump re- reducing tariffs as a gift to the king. So no, I I think it'll it'll be a feel-good sort of thing. It'll give Tina Brown great material to write about and uh her substock. The royal we'll be talking about will be the king rather than uh any of the former royals found in uh either California or the Epstein files. But I don't think it changes any of the basics. Do you? I mean, do you disagree with me if you will?

SPEAKER_03 16:30

I don't I no, I don't think it changes anything at all. I I mean I think the royal family brand, if you will, has suffered almost terminal damage, and I can't imagine although Trump, to be fair, Trump is apparently a a royalist of some some standing. So maybe maybe he'll enjoy it and feel better about Britain.

SPEAKER_00 16:50

But I don't know I think he is a royalist in a certain way, and he had this commingling. I mean Yeah, as everybody knows, the the president is both the head of government and the head of state in the United States, where in Britain we separate the roles. The Prime Minister, he or she is the head of government, and the king or queen is the head of state. So I think Mr. Trump kind of revels in the role of being both. The way he blurs lines between family and government and state is very consistent. So uh I would think there's a a royal quality. I expect okay, it's only a matter of time, John. Here's my prediction of the deck. All right, here we go. You'll be going to the local safe way or wherever you buy your your your foodstuffs, whatever fancy place you go to.

SPEAKER_03 17:33

Big Y, big Y is where I go.

SPEAKER_00 17:35

Um and instead of like in Britain, when you buy jam, you have these little crowns, and it means like this jam is the royal family, it gets kind of the seal of approval. And I expect it's only a matter of time before we have the Trump seal of approval, which could be yours for a certain fee if you are producing jelly or peanut butter or whatever your product or service happens to be.

SPEAKER_03 17:57

So one sort of out-of-nowhere curveball came into the uh King's visit to the United States, which is the uh RA, the golf com the golf oversight committee in in Great Britain, announced that 2028 uh open championship, golf championship, would be held at Royal Lithum and not at Turnbury, which is what uh a golf course that Mr. Trump owns. So at the moment that King Charles walks into the White House, I suspect that Mr. Trump will be looking at him and saying you couldn't get the British Open Deal done and have it at uh Turnbury. This is an insult. It shouldn't, you know, Royal Lithum is no good. Uh it should be a Turnbury. If you turn it around, we'll have a special relationship again. You you agree with me or no?

SPEAKER_00 18:49

Quite possibly. First of all, though, I want to compliment you on your mixed metaphor to use a curveball from the world of baseball in describing a development in the world of golf is is is nifty. I like that. I admire that.

SPEAKER_03 19:02

There you go.

SPEAKER_00 19:03

There you go. Mr. Ellis. Uh yeah, it's quite possible. The president will be m uh slightly miffed, I should think. I have you played his course in Scott? I hear it's pretty good, but I haven't played it.

SPEAKER_03 19:12

I haven't played Turnbury since they renovated it. I have played Royal Lithum, which is a sensational golf course. I mean, the reason that the RNA said they couldn't hold it at Turnbury was apolitical. There's one very small road that leads to Turnbury, and you know, just the logistics of an open championship with all of the television and so on and so forth would have made it impossible.

SPEAKER_00 19:36

My uh to do my other fearless prediction is that explanation will not totally persuade the president of the United States.

SPEAKER_03 19:44

You are correct, Mr. Oz. You are correct. Moving right along to in the world of sports, we have uh Mr. Sebastian Sowway, uh who uh broke the two-minute uh two-hour barrier of a twenty-six point two mile marathon race in London. To give people some idea of how fast that is, the world record in the 100 meter dash, I believe, is nine and a half seconds or something. Mr. Uh Sahway ran uh the hundred year a hundred meter dash in 17 seconds, except he did it 17 seconds time and time and time again over 26.2 miles. It's a absolutely astonishing accomplishment. And I was wondering if you if you thought that you started at the starting line and I picked up uh at the 50 uh meter mark. Would we defeat Sebastian Sahway at 100 meters?

SPEAKER_00 20:48

Okay, so his 100 meters is probably the first of what would be you have to do over 400 of them to run a marathon.

SPEAKER_03 20:55

At least.

SPEAKER_00 20:56

Probably 400, 450. Would we beat him? No, because one or both of us would tear a hamstring along the way. Uh, there's no chance that if either one of us sprinted, we would make it 50 yards or meters or w whatever it is, or they'd have to bring out the paddles and get our hearts going. So uh no, this is amazing, by the way. You we're old enough, I think we are, uh Roger Bannister, four-minute mile. This was right up there with that. There were just certain things that you never expected to to happen. And people have saved a real enormous amount of time off the marathon in our lifetime. Um not you know, I assume it has to do with training and all that, because the equipment is minimal. Maybe the shoes help a little bit, but I assume it mainly has to do with with training. Um it's it's just an amazing accomplishment.

SPEAKER_03 21:44

So I I hesitate to do this, but it we are at the end of the NFL draft, and I'd be remiss if I if I didn't ask you uh your final thoughts on how the New York football giants fared.

SPEAKER_00 22:00

Well the first thing to say is all you have is these pap these players, you have their tapes and you have them on paper. And as we've learned the hard way over the years, John, just because you're a top draft choice doesn't mean you will be a successful professional. The Giants have had a rather uh spotty spotty, thank you for that. Yeah, their batting average in recent years has not been great, if I may again mix our metaphors. That said, uh I'm s I'm impressed by how many of the experts have given the Giants either the gold or silver medal among the uh teams, the two dozen plus teams in the National Football League for their for this year's draft. And a lot of people think that they got the or you know, after the Mr. Mendoza, the quarterback who went in the first round to Las Vegas, the first choice, they got the best player with uh one of the Arvil Reese. They got a really good large lineman, though I I'm a little bit unhappy with the choice. I agree with the Giants and Malik neighbors. They probably should have chosen the safety from uh Ohio State. And by the way, just as a side answer, it's amazing how many of the top players came from the Ohio State University. And my hunch is they could probably beat several NFL teams uh the uh uh the way it is. But no, the Giants look much improved. I mean, the the harbar era looks to be off to a good start. And by the way, it's not just draft, it's free agency, it's all the signings that you uh do. But the Giants seem to be going quite systematically to getting a combination of best players and filling positional needs, and yeah, we won't know. But my as I wrote about in Home and Away, I'm gonna stand by my bet with Mr. October, with Reggie Jackson, and we uh have a hundred dollar wager on whether the Giants make the playoffs this year. And my hundred dollars is sitting safely with the wife of a good friend, and we'll we'll we'll see. And uh but I uh yeah, I'm feeling pretty good about the uh about the Giants, even if I disagree with one or two of their choices. I say one of the things, sorry to go on too long, some of the lesser choices people are also speaking really highly of. And so I uh I think it's looking up, looking up for the New Jersey Giants.

SPEAKER_03 24:03

Uh we have we have arrived at our 30-minute limit, but I wanted uh listeners to be sure to read if you are a subscriber uh to Project Syndicate, Richard and uh Carolyn Kassane. Is that the correct pronunciation of the last name?

SPEAKER_00 24:19

It's Kassan, but I'm not sure.

SPEAKER_03 24:21

Anyway, Richard and uh Carolyn Kassan wrote a piece about what we need to do to shore up our defenses of energy infrastructure, and it's a 10-point program, and we're gonna talk about it tomorrow in news items. So with that, uh Richard, I hope that Centerview is hard at work on the Pentagon's acquisition of Ukraine drone inc.

SPEAKER_01 24:47

I'm curious to see the fee structure of that one. Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 24:50

I can only imagine.

SPEAKER_01 24:52

I could I could I could afford to subscribe to news items in perpetuity.

SPEAKER_03 24:58

All right. Thanks everybody for listening.

SPEAKER_01 25:01

Thank you, John.