Iraq's sovereignty and militia problem

The guest of this episode is Erbil-based Political Analyst Lawk Ghafuri, who sheds light on Iraq's ongoing problem of sovereignty violations and militia groups.

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Let's start with the mo the freshest uh topic, which is a two-week ceasefire between Iran, Israel, and the United States. And you just told me how you have witnessed most of the interceptions, the drone attacks. So have I and most people. It must feel different now for the skies to be calm. Exactly.

SPEAKER_01 0:22

It's it's kinda a break for the region to breathe a bit. After 40 days, I believe, uh, the two-week ceasefire comes because the people are very tired of what's happening. Like me, as you said, you as say similar like to everybody in Erbil and the wider region. The problem was that we are not part of the war, neither Gulf, none of us. It's a war between US, Iran, and Israel. But somehow we are in in the middle of it. And in throughout all this, it's it's not it's like the attacks was on Kurdistan region, Erbil, Sleemania, Duhok sometimes. Uh it was by the groups that is affiliated to Iran. And at the end of the day, these groups, um, after this 40 days, to be honest, I have to be honest with you, they are more powerful than the Iraqi government. Yeah. Because let's go back to the first day. So since the first day, these groups have been attacking every day. Like, not all only in Iraq. They have been attacking Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, as they claim. Syria. Syria as well, yes, exactly. The Iraqi government did not do anything, nor like they they just had statements. So after 40 days, and I believe Iraq was in a state of completely paralyzed. Like the government was it was not weak, was actually absent. During this war? Of course. It was completely absent. Iraq was being run by a bunch of groups that is working like under the commander, like the commander of the RGC. But this is the most like this is the main problem Iraq has after the 2011 of the US withdrawal. It was like the Obama, like I personally was, and I still am a very big critic of how Obama actually withdrew its forces. So this is the vacuum that Obama created, and Iran actually got um advantage of. And right now we are dealing with a group, even though Kurds have a very good relations with Iran, like the on the leadership level, but we are getting hit. Why we're getting hit? It's like because of US. It's not US.

SPEAKER_00 2:52

Yeah, that's what I was going to say. What makes it strange is that the Kurdistan region came under attack, of course, from Iran, but mostly from inside Iraq itself. That's very strange. And people used to write on social media it's very strange that Iraq is attacking Iraq itself.

SPEAKER_01 3:08

Exactly. So Iraq is attacking itself, Iran was attacking Iraq. Yeah. And we all know that they attacked a Peshmerga unit and six Peshmerga killed. And at the same time, the US is attacking Iraq.

SPEAKER_02 3:22

Yes.

SPEAKER_01 3:23

And so, where is the government here? There's no government. The government is actually absent. It's now weak. And I have read, like I have read a lot of articles recently about the government should do something about them. To be honest, since 2024, it was December, I think, Anthony Blinken, former foreign minister, like former Secretary of State of US, came to Baghdad. Like it was post-asset fall in Syria. And he was like, we want Sudani to disarm the military. That moment I was like, absolutely impossible for not even Sudani, any other men in Baghdad to disarm these groups.

SPEAKER_00 4:04

Do you think it will the solution is for the Iraqi government and the Iraqi state to combine the militia groups with the army? Because budget-wise, it's very costly for Iraq. Now we know there are multiple armed forces plus these militia groups. And if it's impossible to disarm them and dissolve them, why not make them part of the army so that you have in the next 10-20 years weeding them out, making them professional?

SPEAKER_01 4:34

I agree with that. But there's a problem. Right now, they don't want to do the same. They don't want, because there is a proposal to back that that they actually integrate into the Iraqi army. But we are talking about a lot of groups already. Part of the official military belongs to the state, which is the popular mobilization forces. What happens inside the popular mobilization forces is going to happen the same inside the Iraqi forces. You cannot just have people that are actually listening to Tehran more than Baghdad, and you just combine them with the Iraqi forces.

SPEAKER_00 5:21

Yeah, yeah, that's true. It's difficult because they come with their own agendas, they come with their own loyalty. But uh it might be better than just having them on the side.

SPEAKER_01 5:31

Of course. Like if if you have no other option, the best thing, and you cannot just tell them like you actually fight them and you kill them all, but um the best way is to integrate into the Iraqi army. But there should be some kind of uh study, some kind of uh very good and well-educated process, because at the end of the day, you need to like a lot of fighters within these Iraqi-backed, sorry, Iranian-backed militia in Iraq, they are ideologically actually fighting for Iran. It's not like because of one person of the IRC. No, it's because they believe that it's uh a duty that they have to do it because of the ideology. So I completely agree the best solution is to integrate into Iraq forces.

SPEAKER_00 6:20

Yeah, and the problem with these militia groups, that's why Iraq itself is not officially part of the war, but they have dragged Iraq into the war because they have nothing to lose. That's the danger of militia groups. Yeah, for example, the Kurdistan region is worried about what we have built in the last 35 years. Yeah, roads, buildings, schools. Basically, we've had three decades of relative peace and stability. So when you have something to lose, you are very cautious about joining wars, alliances, taking steps. With militia groups, they have nothing to lose. They fire rockets and drones right and left.

SPEAKER_01 6:57

Exactly. I agree with that. So you have like what happened with the Kurds during even Iranians, like a war between the like US and Iran. You remember that there was a lot of talk from Washington saying, oh, the Kurds, like Iranian opposition forces of the Kurds, they couldn't can push. Immediately, the leadership in Kurdistan region, they actually prevented anyone to cross. This is a quite and to be honest, I was I was impressed that this we didn't let this happen, like as a as a as a Kurdistan region. We didn't let this happen, but at the same time, we got a lot of rockets instead. As you said, like I agree, it's it's uh the for them is this is a business. For for the Iranian-backed militia, this is for their leadership, this is a business, completely business. It's not about oh, they they do there is fighters that they do it for their belief, their ideology, and I I personally believe that it's a very powerful ideology. Um, but their leadership, the structure of the leadership, it's all all business. And and and and and why I'm saying this, let's look at PMF, like the popular mobilization forces. It was first created to fight ISIS by a fatwa from Ayatollah Sistani. And then what happened after that? It was the the change, the transformation of PMF from being a body like a organization of military, it became now an organization of funding. Because annually, Iraqi state is actually funding PMF with 3.8, I believe, something. I don't wanna say it in a wrong way, 3. And a lot of units who are actually belongs to the Iranian-backed militia, actually all of them are paid.

SPEAKER_00 8:58

Of course they are because I thought the PMF were well behaved, paid by the government. There are on top of them, or in addition, there are other groups that are not paid by the government, and they are the ones firing these rockets and drones. So all or or all of them are to be honest.

SPEAKER_01 9:14

Like I have to be honest, like the PMF is like there is there is popular mobilization forces, some units, yeah, they're actually behaving, they are like under the commander, like under the command of the commander-in-chief, which is Prime Minister Sudani. But there is units. Like, if you believe that there is Iranian-backed militia outside of PMF, you're completely wrong. All of them, they are under the umbrella of PMF. Why? Because of the funding, because of the salaries. And let's let's be honest, recently, every attack by US on these groups who, according to US, were like targeting them in especially Western Iraq, it was because of their attacking neighbors and attacking Kurdistan region and US interests. And all of them, they were like units within the PMF. And so the PMF is a like it transformed from a military organization to a funding. Like it's like a kind of NGO funding the people to keep running.

SPEAKER_00 10:14

And then uh the issue is that uh the Iraqi prime minister, the Iraqi president, politicians basically, elected leaders are not able to control these militia groups because uh it's obvious, I think, excuse me, these militia groups appoint the ministers and prime ministers in most cases. How can you disarm them if they are more powerful than the government?

SPEAKER_01 10:39

Exactly. In most cases, Kagayoub, in most cases, is that you have the prime minister, like the prime minister is a very bigger uh, let's say, process or or dialogue that happens between even regional countries to to elect a prime minister. But when it comes to the ministers and when it comes to the governors, and especially lately the governor of uh Babel, like uh sorry, Diala, not Babel, it was a big beef about it, and it was actually won the seat won by the um it was Babel, sorry, not Diala, it was won by the Kaiser Ghazali, one of his guys. And in an election or just appointed? It was an election in the provisional council of Babel, but it was an election that has a lot of question mark on it. Decided the results were and you know, like this is one example from many. Like we can talk about other ministers, we can talk about like I'm I'm I don't want to specifically like name people or name their positions, but there's a lot of cases happening like this. In many case in many occasions, I have always said that Iraq is a country that can be very powerful and strong, but the the moment that they actually get to know each, like let's say not dialogue, but accepting each other. That's the problem. Iraqi groups, of course. Like you have even within the Shia, they have very different, let's say, different sides, different groups, and they don't like each other, to be honest.

SPEAKER_00 12:18

But why are they so united? Because for the last two, three decades, many people have predicted or expected some kind of civil war between Iraqi militia groups, and they seem all to be together, and that hasn't happened. Why do you think that is? I mean, Iran.

SPEAKER_01 12:35

Iran is very powerful in Baghdad. It's is it's quite obvious that so the coordination framework was actually created according to Iranian policy in Baghdad. Why they did that is to make everyone under one, like to be on one table and make like, and that's kind of or like kind of more of a standing against also the other Shia powerful groups, which is Muqtada al-Sadr. Because every individual within these groups alone, like like alone, they cannot do anything against Sadr. But when they are together, they can actually, when it comes to the parliament, the numbers.

SPEAKER_00 13:24

I doubt that.

SPEAKER_01 13:25

I I doubt that he's not, to be honest. I doubt, like, because as I said, back in 2011, post 2011, like everybody like the Shia has been very, very much close, like very close to Iran. I uh Sadr is more of a uh let's say neutral when it comes to the Iranians and Americans, but at the same time, Sadr is also not a very kind of 100% Iraqi. Of course. Like there is there is some some influences from Tehran on him. Like you cannot because I remember back in 2019 when the protest started um in Baghdad. Uh I believe there was a lot of Sadh movement happening there. And then at the end, Saddam struck a deal, and I I remember that very well. He was in Iran, he struck a deal with all the Iranian-backed militia at that time, and he had a photo with them.

unknown 14:33

Wow.

SPEAKER_01 14:33

And he was like, Oh, we gotta we gotta into uh an agreement with them. So halas, go home, no more protest. So you this is this tells you a lot what's happening in Baghdad. And if you think that Baghdad is being um some kind of uh having a control over the the individuals, like which they are very close to Iran, no, they don't. Baghdad is is very of course.

SPEAKER_00 15:04

And these the the the presence of these powerful out-of-control militia groups in Iraq also reflects very well in the sphere of negotiations between Erbil and Baghdad. Of course. I remember it's almost like a waste of time. Every time a delegation goes from here, well-organized team with clear agendas, they go to Baghdad, they reach an agreement, they come back, it's violated. It might be these militia groups behind the scene. Because you you negotiate with the council of ministers, and as you said, they are powerless. Yeah. So it's like you are negotiating with someone who has to later on negotiate their own bosses in order to be able to agree or not.

SPEAKER_01 15:47

Yes, that's that's true because remember is that Baghdad is a city that it has a lot of uh Iranian influence. Like I why I'm talking always about Iranian influence. I'm I I think it's the it's the politics that Ibn Baghdad that actually pushes it to be more into something that preserves what they have created for themselves. For example, the Iranian-backed groups, of course they have influence on the government, but remember the government has been formed from these groups, like from even the Iranian influence. Like we're talking about even now, the sole-nominated candidate for prime minister is Nour Maliki. And I don't want to go back to the history, but we all know, like, everybody knows that Nour Maliki has been one of the most closest men of Tehran in Iraq back in even pre-ISIS. Um I mean, this like his first term and second term. Um, so uh if we talk about the government, government is part of the these groups as well. Part of the yeah, part of the part of the in at like environment that have has been created by Iran post-US withdrawal. So you cannot, I don't think anyone can expect anything, let's say, concrete happening by by by Baghdad in the in the close future, in the soon, like the in the very coming even years, to be honest. Because Baghdad is is in a way or another, has been even now, they have been, and that's my biggest problem, to be honest. Baghdad has never been into something, like, for example, the region, because they have lately they had very good ties, very good, like normalizing the relationship with Gulf. The Iranian-backed militia decided to that Iraq should not have any more relations with the Gulf. And do you know what happened? Like two weeks ago, all the Gulf states they had one statement, joint statement, because they targeted the Gulf states. I mean, if you're not gonna control these Iranian-backed militias, Baghdad is gonna be like even weaker, and they like even negotiation with them is not gonna happen.

SPEAKER_00 18:16

Like do you ever go to Baghdad? A lot, yes. Really? Yeah. Wow, I haven't been there for a long time because I saw so many bad things in Baghdad during the sectarian war, a lot of violence, car bombing, kidnapping, mugging. Yeah, that's my image and memory of Baghdad. And I don't really believe that it has changed, it's calmer, it's peaceful. I think it's just uh something boiling underneath forever. So uh I'm gonna be honest.

SPEAKER_01 18:46

So my birthplace was Baghdad. Really? Yeah. So uh for me, Baghdad is a beautiful city. It's a beautiful, it's it's a very it's a very diverse city. But by the way, a lot of Kurds they call them even uh we are Kurds from Baghdad. Yeah, yeah. So at some point they were there were one million Kurds in the King. Exactly. So so Baghdad used to be very diverse. I'm not by used to be, I'm not cheering for the past regime because it was bloody and everyone knows about it. Uh but Baghdad now is change in terms of there's like it's more secure, more stable, you see a lot of change in the street. But I the only thing that uh it's it's not changing is the norms that is in Baghdad when like I mean to be more specific, it's the these groups that you go to everywhere, you go to anywhere in Baghdad, and you see some like you see some places which is like belongs to these groups. And this is this is the subject.

SPEAKER_00 19:56

Is it visible to uh a non-Baghdadi, or if someone who lives there feels the presence of these different groups? Or if to an outsider it looks normal?

SPEAKER_01 20:07

I mean for an outsider it looks normal. So you have to be like going to Baghdad a lot to recognize which ones is is belongs to which group. Um but for like it's unfortunate because Baghdad used to be like, as you said, sectarian violence, a lot of bombings, a lot of terrorism. But I'm gonna be honest, like lately I've been a lot to Baghdad, and it's a beautiful city, and the people are very beautiful. I love it, but it's unfortunate that due to the past uh experience, a lot of people are having a very, let's say, bad memory in Baghdad.

SPEAKER_00 20:49

One of them is you. Yeah, yeah. So that's true. No, Baghdad is exactly has that credit of being historical, a lot of art and literature in the past. And you were saying earlier that uh the different communities in Iraq, unfortunately, instead of using the um multiculturalism or diversity to their benefit and their strength, it has only weakened Iraq. I agree.

SPEAKER_01 21:15

It's it's it's just the the influence and also the people that they are running, the government and the the different sectors like economy, politics, everything. It's just a sad part of Baghdad to be honest. Otherwise, the city, I I really suggest you to visit Baghdad this next time.

SPEAKER_00 21:37

The last time I was there was 2019 and 19, yeah. 2009. 2009, and I Oh, that was yeah, that was dark days for Baghdad. 2003, four, five, uh six. I still went in 2009. But when you say different groups control different areas of Baghdad, in What sense do they control it? The properties, businesses, everything, streets, everything.

SPEAKER_01 22:04

Wow. Yeah, of course. Like you have like again, I don't wanna be more like I don't want to be specific, but there's streets that there's businesses. It's actually taken by a lot of people that they have power. And um not only that, we're talking like if because lately there's a lot of cases and there's a lot of uh news about the border crossings. There is there is there is men in the in the government and in power, not in the government, but in power. Uh they have they are powerful, they have shares of the border crossing.

SPEAKER_00 22:42

Border crossing where? In in the south. In south of Iraq. Border between Iran and Iraq. Yes, they have shares. In the customs and revenues of I think that's true. In Iraq, all the resources, sorry, all the resources in Iraq, I think, are divided between different militia groups. One of them controls oil, one real estate, one probably agriculture, mining, if they have any mining. But uh now with the uh we all saw what happened in the last 40 days, the war between Iran, Israel, and the US, the participation of militia groups, bombarding them by the US. What will happen to them now after this ceasefire? Let's imagine there will be a peace deal. The war will stop. What do you think is going to be the future of these groups? Are they going to be more powerful, more dangerous, or they will be put in their place by the Iraqi government, the US, and others?

SPEAKER_01 23:40

I mean, it's it's they are like they should be part of the peace deal, right? Like if US is trying to like one of the like pre-Iran war, there was one of the conditions of US in negotiations that is the proxy. The proxy uh like uh groups that they have, Iran in the region, like Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon. Um, one of them is Iraq. And the more when it comes to numbers, they have the biggest number, by the way, in Iraq. So I think if if uh they are part of the deal, they have to they have to disarm, they have to be kind of in having a solution for them. But if not, I mean that's gonna be a very big headache for Baghdad because I have a different I have a very different um theory for what's coming. Um what I think is that Iran or US, if they actually reach a deal, a permanent deal, um, and the war stops without talking or without actually dissolving or finding a solution for the proxies in Iraq, I mean these proxies is going to be like they're going to be used. I mean, there is a lot of um bombing recently, a lot of airstrikes recently by US on these groups in Western of Iraq. I mean, this is a big message. Western Iraq is a is uh is bordering Syria. Syria borders Israel, yeah. Exactly. And and I personally believe Syria right now is um a new government, a new face, everything, but they have a lot of jihadists, Sunni jihadists. Who are angry at these militia groups? Not only militia groups, but they are they are always hungry to do jihad, yeah. Right? That's hungry for action. Of course. And and and and for them, if Syria is a stable thing, there's no jihad, they need to change the theater. So I'm afraid there's um some kind of uh way that because by the way, at the end of the day, Syria needs to get rid of these foreign jihadists, which they are ex-ISIS, ex-A-Qaida. They are from different countries in West, like uh in Asia or in Africa. So if Syria is going to have a serious move to actually get rid of these foreign jihadists, it's not gonna be on a plane and go back.

SPEAKER_00 26:28

Is are their foreign jihadists still in Syria? Of course. And what do they do? Where are they?

SPEAKER_01 26:33

They are but they used to be part of the HTS, which is Hayat Harisham, and then um their leader is now the president of Syria. So they are like they are in in in different um places of Syria, and they are just uh actually most of them they are part of the defense ministry now.

SPEAKER_00 26:53

How can you have foreign soldiers in your army so unless you open a foreign legion like the French Legion?

SPEAKER_01 27:00

So that's that's that was the that was the the idea that the US and EU even, they had a lot of talks with Syria to get rid of these foreign jihadists. But if you get rid of these foragers, how are they gonna get rid of them? Where will they go?

SPEAKER_00 27:17

Because that's always a problem. They moved from Afghanistan to Iraq, from Iraq to Syria.

SPEAKER_01 27:22

So I I believe something is cooking in the western side of Iraq. I mean, because a lot of airstrikes are on the western western side of Iraq. And I wrote something for um, like I think three or two or three months ago, before the war, it was mainly about the future of the Syrian Sunni jihadists and the future of Iraqi Shia militias. So two groups that they are hating each other, they are actually jihading to kill each other. Um, both governments they have nothing to do with them because they are not able to uh let's say no, both governments come from these militias, which you said, yeah. Exactly. Both governments are coming from these militias. And um at the end of the day, there is like these groups, they are created for a purpose.

SPEAKER_00 28:21

I think if I'm right, you are predicting a civil war between a war between Syria and Iraq at some point.

SPEAKER_01 28:27

I I you you cannot like we cannot name it this way, but I believe if you because even in in my opinion, when US is pushing so hard for the Iranian-backed militias to get disarmed, you cannot do that without having a solution for the jihadist in Syria as well.

SPEAKER_00 28:46

I mean, it was the argument is that the jihadis in Syria, since they toppled the regime of Assad, they have not harmed anyone. That's what they might might say. There is no attack from Syria. That's true, because the militias, on the contrary, true attack.

SPEAKER_01 29:01

True, but um on the long term, this is not gonna be like uh the same case. Because in Iraq, you have these groups, unfortunately, they are even officially part of the government, let's say. Yeah. Because they are part of the PMF, and the PMF is the uh official state military body. Uh but when it comes to Syria, is they are trying to do the same thing. They're trying to have the defense ministry involving everyone, but you cannot have four in jihadists. Institutionalized. Of course. But let's be honest, Iraq had four in jihadists as well, like Fatami Yoon and other groups which came from Pakistan, from Afghanistan. We had we had some. Sorry, but for me, if you want to solve the case of Iraq and Syria, because by the way, both countries they are like kind of ticking bomb. Yeah, because Iraq is still uh Iraq first was post-2003 invasion, like post-war country. Iraq after ISIS is still a post-war country.

SPEAKER_00 30:13

Iraq has always been since the tectonic plagues took shape. I think it will always be. I don't know what's this curse of Iraq. It's like a cycle. Even if you have 10 years of stability and economic boom, and then they have some an event.

SPEAKER_01 30:27

Five years of war and destruction. And I think I think Iraq is if they don't do something about their internal politics and these groups, they themselves, there there will be some kind of um aggression against them. Because but I believe, I believe the government is not able to disarm or even solve these groups without the help of the allies, let's say, which is the US and because at the end of the day, the US is is pushing back that for this.

SPEAKER_00 31:03

I think there is a solution for Iraq. It's bad for everyone else, but it's good for Iraq itself, especially economically. If you are not able to disarm these militia groups and dissolve them, Iraq must dissolve its army. I mean, you have an army and a militia group, federal police, so equivalent of every official armed force you have, you have a militia group. Yeah. So what are you going to do? Are you going to continue for the next 50 years spending these billions of dollars on the army and the police and anti-terrorism and air force and then all of these militia groups? Why don't you get rid of the army and give all the money to the militia groups? And hopefully in the next 40 years you will be able to reform them. My biggest problem with Iraq that I always say is that Iraq has spent billions and billions of dollars on arms, you know, during Saddam Hussein, after Saddam Hussein, and now. And it loses every war. They are incapable of flying fighter jets, they are incapable of using the radar system, incapable of driving a US tank. And it's all money wasted. Iraq should at some point spend some of its military budget on the country. You have seen Iraq. Have they built any roads in the last 20 years, built any hospitals? I cannot point to anything. While they are so excited about the latest fighter jet that and you you have been losing over and over again.

SPEAKER_01 32:36

I mean, if like you talk about Southern Iraq, like let's let's talk about Basra. Yeah. If you want to talk about how the money and the state budget is being spent, you go Basra. I have been to Basra many times. Devastating. Yeah. And it's the richest city, if it's not in the world, at least in the Middle East, let's say, because it has a lot of oil. And it's Iraq's gateway to it. Exactly. And it's 80 to 85% of Iraq oil is coming from Basra. While the city, they don't even have a clean water to drink.

SPEAKER_00 33:17

The government does not spend money on these, or they spend it, but it gets stolen and swinged.

SPEAKER_01 33:23

In both cases, is right. I mean, a lot of a lot of in a lot of cases you see that the money has been spent in a wrong way, or it's uh there's a lot of corruption when it comes to the spending. But Basra is the prime example of how Iraq has been developing because it's very unfortunate. I have been to Basra, amazing people. You go there, good fish, good, very good fish. I was about to talk about the fish. I mean, but when it comes to the roads, as we said, hospitals, it's devastating.

SPEAKER_00 33:59

But isn't that the job I often see people complaining against the government everywhere in Iraq, in the Kurdistan region, the government, this and that. But then you have, I often blame governors, okay, local officials. The Iraqi prime minister or the our own prime minister in the Kurdistan region would be very happy and proud if the governor of Halabjah or Duhok or Erbil stands out for some creativity for groundbreaking plans and construction and changes. I mean, we can't just sit and blame the government, the government. Whereas in Iraq and the Kurdistan region, we have this system of autonomy to the governors. Sometimes we need brave visionary local leaders to make the change. I agree.

SPEAKER_01 34:46

Uh but the problem is when you spend so much money on your, as you said, on trying to build in groups working for other countries, trying to uh I mean the last 40 days there was a lot of aids and support by the Iraqis going into Iran for Iranian people, which is the humanitarian, like humanity in the let's say the aspect of humanity, that's amazing, but in the aspect of Iraq is not having like a lot of people in Iraq, by the way, because mostly the things that coming to Baghdad and the South was Iranians, to be honest. And when they stopped, why you reversing and you take it? So as I I agree with you with local officials should step up and do something about it, but they are limited as well. Let's be honest. Like when it comes to the southern provinces, like cities, the governor, yes, he can do something, but he's also very restricted by the groups. He has to bow to bosses. Of course. Like, and by the way, when you go to Basra, when you go to Nasalya, when you go to Ambar, everywhere. You have groups who have shares in everything. Like you're talking about land, you're talking about border crossing, you're talking about even the shrine culture, everything. Shrines, they it belongs to every and each of them. So they are also restricted in terms of how they can do. Like if we take Kurdistan as a prime example, is that the prime minister is and the governor, they both have nothing to be pressured on. That's why they do it. Uh but when it comes to Baghdad and South, no, you have let's let's call them sharks. You have 12 to 15 sharks that if you make one move, they're gonna attack you.

SPEAKER_00 36:51

So or they each want uh a piece of the case. Of course.

SPEAKER_01 36:55

So what is the yeah, what is what is the easiest way to deal with that? You just sit down, you just sign whatever they want, you're happy. And that's that's the core problem of Iraq. And by the way, this is not we I'm not talking about the governors only when it comes to that. I'm talking about the actually the whole government. Because if we talk about ministers, they have the same pressure on them. Prime Minister is the same pressure on them, like Muhammad Shah Sudani. Lately, there was an attack on the intelligence, Iraqi intelligence services in Baghdad, and one of them, one officer killed. Yeah, and it was conducted by the groups. So, in return, there was some kind of uh um, and I by the way, I I read it in multiple uh group like channels on Telegram, which are affiliated to these Iranian-backed groups. They were making fun of Prime Minister Sulani, and they were like actually um kind of promising him with a very, very harsh response if he make a move. Against them, of course. And eventually he didn't make a move. Which he can't, yeah. He didn't make a move. So that tells you a lot about the Iraqi government. And at the beginning, you remember that I told you Iraqi government is not weak, it's absent, completely absent. Yeah, like you had 40 days of war, 40 days these groups have been attacking Kurdistan, have been attacking Jordan, Gulf. And you absolutely did nothing.

SPEAKER_00 38:30

No, exactly. Iraqi government is so useless. Apart from all these groups operating in Iraq, attacking all of Iraq's neighbors, including the Kurdistan region. Apart from all those, even Israel and the United States and others, they did not ask Iraq, they did not consult Iraq as if it did not exist. I mean, how shameful that is for a country that becomes the playground of a million different groups and fighters and fighter jets, and you coming on TV and saying, speaking of sovereignty. That's Iraq's problem. They always speak of sovereignty, and one country that has zero sovereignty is Iraq.

SPEAKER_01 39:08

Unfortunately, it is true, and even not even before the war. Yes, exactly we can I can count you multiple countries that they are actually violating the sovereignty of Iraq. Yeah. It comes to Iran, Turkey, Syria, Kuwait, US, Israel. What is like when does the sovereignty of Iraq have ever been respected?

SPEAKER_00 39:34

Yeah, especially since 2003.

SPEAKER_01 39:36

Exactly. So that's my problem with that is because you have every time you talk about the sovereignty, but the sovereignty is always been like broken or actually violated by these groups that you actually funding them.

SPEAKER_00 39:56

That's a good argument. If Iraq is worried about its sovereignty being violated, first of all, control these groups because no one else has violated Iraq's sovereignty more than these armed militia groups. If you cannot control your own internal politics armed groups, how would you expect the US or Israel to not violate your sovereign groups?

SPEAKER_01 40:18

Exactly. And and a lot of people argue that just dissolve or disarm the Iranian-backed groups and your sovereignty is gonna. No, that's not true.

SPEAKER_00 40:28

So do you you mean dissolving Iranian-backed groups in Iraq will not solve the problem of course, definitely not solve the problem.

SPEAKER_01 40:35

I will let you know, I will tell you why I think this way is because Iran, since 2003 and today, until today, and even in the future, if the regime stays, they will never let a prominent, strong individual to become the leader of the country.

SPEAKER_00 40:55

Because they have trauma from a strong Iraq. Even if this man is from their own, they will not want one man.

SPEAKER_01 41:04

Yeah, of course. Look at what Abadi did, Haider Abadi, back in the days, he was the prime minister in like, and he was actually the prime minister when ISIS attacked Iraq. What he did, he actually did it, he he liberated Muslim. The problem with Abadi is that he lost his support locally after what happened, like he attacked Kirkuk, the Kurds, and that was the locally. I mean, the locally, the Kurds are very powerful when it comes to forming the government of the Iraqis.

SPEAKER_02 41:37

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 41:37

And by the way, until today, there's no any movement, like let's say any development when it comes to the Iraqi government formation, it's because you either go into give the rights of the Kurds or they can actually make you stop. Great true. Right, exactly. So when it comes to Iran, Iran will never let this happen. Because a strong Iraq will be a very threat, a big threat for Iran. I'm not talking about pre-2003. I'm talking about if Iran loses Iraq, they will lose because they lost Syria, but it's a prom potential to get it back for in their head, let's say, for Iran. If they lose Iraq, they would lose Syria and Lebanon. Yeah. So if they lose these three countries, they will definitely be their regional, let's say, power, their regional proxies, they will be dead. So why a prof like a strong, powerful individual never be become the prime minister? Because he will be very powerful that he can actually disarm these groups. Yeah, exactly. With violence. But um, I don't think Iran will let this happen. And that's that's we we is this takes us back to the what you said at the beginning. Is that why there's no local governors or local, let's say, leaders, official that can make a change? Because they can't, because Iran wants everyone who is now powerful to be in somewhere. And when I said Haider Abadis, that Iran did not let this happen.

SPEAKER_00 43:17

Because what do you think now is going to be the place of the Kurdistan region now? Let's assume this ceasefire is going to continue or last long. And we saw what happened. The Kurdistan region was not dragged into the war, it came under attack, it held together still. How do you read uh the next few months uh for the Kurdistan region? I cannot say years, because in the Middle East things changed quickly. Yeah, I agree.

SPEAKER_01 43:46

So for Kurds, I mean, like for now, uh the biggest debate about it's the Iraqi presidency. I mean, if this is solved, um the Kurds needs to By the way, for the last ten years or so, let's say, the Kurds have been very, very critical when it comes to the peace process. We're talking about the peace process in Turkey, between Ankara and PKK. We're talking about the peace process in Syria between Shah, like Ahmad Shah, the president, and the Kurds. And we're talking about the peace process that is going to happen, maybe. Nobody knows. Maybe it happens between the Iranian regime and the Kurds there. Like we're talking about the.

SPEAKER_00 44:31

So that's a good point. Let's talk about that. Let's skip the Kurdistan region. What will be the position of the Iranian Kurdish groups after this war? We know they did not join the war. Some say they will today and yesterday. Some articles in the New York Times and others that they are yearning. The New York Times says Iranian Kurds are yearning to join this war. Do you think the Iranian regime, this one or the future, will be wise enough to say, okay, we had a near-death experience. Let's go and talk to the Kurds and give them some rights and get rid of this lasting threat, basically. Or do you think they will continue forever to deny Kurdish rights and Kurdish existence?

SPEAKER_01 45:17

I mean, the Iranian opposition groups, the Kurdish Iranian opposition groups, they they it will be good for them to make some kind of negotiation with Tehran and get their rights. I completely agree with that. But there's a big problem here is that Turkey is not gonna let this happen. You remember back in the first days of the war, Donald Trump, the president of the US, he was like, Oh, I want the Kurds to make a move. I remember that for the the same day in the evening, there was a call between the Foreign Minister of Turkey with the Secretary of State of US, which is the Mark Rubio. And basically, the the after that the view completely changed. It was like, oh, the Kurds, no, no, no, don't do anything. Because there's a big, big threat that on our Kara, because Turkey doesn't want the Kurds to actually be fully on its borders, let's say Syria, Iraq, and Iran. So I don't think Turkey is gonna let this happen, uh, unless, because Turkey lately has had a different approach, which is, in my opinion, very wise, is that they don't use military against the Kurds. Let's let's go back to the peace process when it started uh with the PKK. They might do the same thing in Iran, they might actually push Tehran to make or actually make the Kurds on in the agenda between US and Tehran to make some kind of uh giving the rights to the Kurds. Some concessions. Because he they did the same to Kurds in Syria. They actually, it was US and Turkey that made sure that the Kurds, like Turkey was more into Damascus taking back the control and US was protecting the Kurds, but Turkey could have, let's say, could have actually made a very wide-scale operation against the Kurds, but they didn't. So this is a very good message, in my opinion. If Iran does a step similar to that, um, it will be good for them. If not, I believe anywhere there is Kurds, there's always chaos. We the Kurds are not like throughout the history, they are not someone that they sit down and they'll be like, okay, just give me my share, and that's it. No. They are very aggressive, they are very keen to get that right.

SPEAKER_00 47:51

But Turkey is often driven by business. Of course. The current leaders of Turkey, especially, come from companies and businesses. Before that, it was the army. Have they not realized that the Kurdistan region is a good example? The Kurdistan region exists as a federal region of Iraq with its own capital parliament flag. Business-wise, it's booming, and its best business partner is Turkey. Have they not learned, the Turkish leaders, that if Kurds of Iran, the Kurds of Syria and other areas do exist and are successful and are booming, it's good for everyone. Why would they have problems with Iranian Kurds gaining anything?

SPEAKER_01 48:31

Very good point. To be honest, when it comes to business and economy, the biggest trade out now with Kurds Naris is Turkey. And it's it's amazing. But when it comes to, like we're talking about geopolitics, when it comes to Turkey, Turkey is afraid of the Kurds to do something within Turkey. Start with federalism and then do something with the world. So when you have when you have Kurds having autonomous like little regions on its border, that's definitely gonna affect the Kurds in Turkey. So by preventing this happening, by the way, Turkey was very much against the today's Kurdistan region, like the federalism in Iraq. They were like the biggest critic against, and they was like the biggest uh opposition of this idea. Why this happened? It was because of there is there was a plan by the Kurds, and there was a fight in Baghdad. And that's always like during the the crisis in Syria, that the Iraqi state army, they started to attack in Kurds, and there was a pause, I remember for four or five days. At that time, I I I wrote something on my profile on X is that the best outcome for Kurds now is to not because they were like going like talking to US, Baghdad, like let's say, like a lot of different capitals. You're wrong. The only capital that you can get your rights in Syria is Damascus.

SPEAKER_00 50:05

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 50:05

Same when it comes to unfortunately when it comes to Iraq. Why? It's because Kurdistan region, right now they have like almost everything independent. But the only thing is not independent is the first is the diplomacy and foreign relations. Second is right now is the salaries of the public servants, the budget. When you need to fight for your rights, you need to fight it in the capital. Same in for the Kurds in different cities.

SPEAKER_00 50:36

That's true, because you are dealing with the capital. Iranian Kurds in this case are their problem is with Tehran. But then it, as they say, it takes two to tango. If the Iranian Kurds are willing to negotiate, willing to make concessions, willing to draw a map as to what they want, you need this to be reciprocated from the other side. Sure.

SPEAKER_01 51:00

I mean, as you said, it's that if you want to get your rights, you need to work within yourself and to go to the capitals. Now in Syria, I mean, like it's going well, but it's the I don't I don't want to be pessimistic here, but it's the changes that's gonna happen in Syria. That's that's very because there's some things that I always predict, but I don't never say it.

SPEAKER_00 51:29

Because sometimes there's predictions.

SPEAKER_01 51:31

No, because predictions are I I'm much against it. But sometimes you when you analyze the region and when you go back to because history is very important. If you want to analyze somewhere, you need to f you need to know the history of this place. You analyze something and you predict something because the prediction is part of the analysis.

SPEAKER_02 51:54

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 51:55

But I never talk about the prediction. And right now, when I talked about Iraq and Syria and the border, I don't want to say what's gonna happen, what I predict, but I want to say that what happened in the 40 days of US in Iraq, against especially on the border in the Western, is not only just randomly this happening. No, this is very strategic why this is being cleaned. Same goes to Syria. Syria is full of foreign judges, as I said, and you need a solution for that. I don't want to go back to this, but when it comes to prediction, is that I mean when Trump is the president, you never be able to predict anything gonna happen. That's that's one thing. Second, it's the local politics of Iraq is very complicated when it comes to let's say Baghdad, Nunemalki is gonna be the prime minister, or he's gonna actually remove his candidacy or withdraw from the race. Nobody knows. But what is very, very much is sure about is that US is not going to be easy on Iraq post-Tahran deal or Tahran, whatever it is gonna happen.

SPEAKER_00 53:14

I think so. I mean, the US spent uh billions and trillions of dollars in Iraq, and uh Trump he often often says that. He said we spent so much money and investment and the loss of life of their soldiers, and they did not benefit from Iraq. I mean, if they are going to be harsh on Iraq, who would blame them?

SPEAKER_01 53:36

You know, he Trump has a tweet on 2011, and that like the other day I I found it somehow. He says a big mistake by Obama that he leaves Iraq. Why not one why not taking the oil? Wow. So this this sums up the Trump politics that's happening. Yeah. For me, the biggest, the biggest mistakes and the biggest wrong policies that happened in the Middle East, it was during Obama, starting from Arab Spring, which it was disaster, to be honest, yeah. Going into Syria, because Syria started with the Arab Spring, and then Syria was some kind of how Obama actually gave, like it was handing over, handed over to Russia. Yeah. And the chemical weapons and stuff. And so I I don't want to go back to this, but why I'm talking about the the mistakes is that Trump now, I believe, is doing even worse mistakes than what Obama was doing. Oh, of course, because I I want to talk about the Iran war a bit, because what has been achieved by Iran war? That's the that's the outcome. Okay, every war has an outcome, every war has a result. I mean, what are the achievements? Okay, will you actually change the regime or the faces, let's say, but what are the what are the changes? What are the like you the on the first day Trump said we're gonna change the regime? No, you didn't change the regime. Second, you said we're going to um I mean different things like Unconditional surrender. Unconditional surrender, Iran enrichment, missiles capabilities, they have still they have missiles capabilities. Yeah, Iran enrichment, they have still the capability, they have the capability to do it, and they are not surrendering. Control of hormones, they still have it. Exactly. So you didn't achieve anything. So you started the war while you now, and there was there was an article by Financial Times yesterday, it was like the idea of the ceasefire came from the Donald Trump team itself, and that says a lot of what's happening because Iranians, and I told you at the beginning, I was very impressed how they actually dealt with that for 40 days, is that one can like one home, like one straight, which is straight of homers, it was enough to put pressure on US to stop this war. And why they did that? Because Strait of Homers is just a Strait of Homers, like let's say 20% of oil and trade is going through this. But the economic pressure that actually resulted from closure of Service, that was the biggest boom because the missile capability is not gonna reach Europe, it's not gonna reach US. Sorry, they they don't have a nuclear weapon to strike anywhere, but they have the straight of rumours that someone in London or in New York or in Russia, in Moscow, or in Beijing, like in China or in Africa, they all got the hit. Yeah, it affects everyone. Exactly. So, I mean, in my opinion, the policies uh so far um is not like in my opinion, the Iran war is not is not achieving anything. And do you think the war is over? No, absolutely not. Actually, the the the other day I wrote that, I was like, there is a ceasefire, but we cannot say, oh, the the past war, oh, we talk about the war in a past tense.

SPEAKER_00 57:25

No, yeah, because already people talk about even us here, as we should remember it's a ceasefire. And last year we had a 12-day war, a six-month break. It continued, it might continue again. True. That's why it might not be easy to assess the outcome of the war.

SPEAKER_01 57:44

And I don't, I don't, I don't think it's gonna, even if there's a long, longer ceasefire, I don't think Israel will let this happen. You saw what had happened in Lebanon. That's kind of in my opinion, that was a provoking Thailand to make a mistake, so the war starts again. Um I mean, in all this, in all this, this has nothing to do with like Iraq, it has nothing to do with the Gulf, but somehow everybody is kind of in the war. Yeah, like for example, like for the past 40 days, me and you and everybody else in Erbil, it is very, very much like a war. Yeah, exactly. Booms. I used to wake up with a with a big boom in the morning, and I used I used to be struggling with the sleep, my sleeps in the night because of the booming. At the end of the day, if there is a ceasefire, yes, there will be a longer ceasefire, maybe, and then maybe there's a deal, but the war is not gonna be over. And I used like I used to say, I feel like Iran is kind of uh not similar, but going through the same era of the 90s, 1990s of Iraq. You remember that back in 1990 and 1991, there was a lot of airstrikes by US.

SPEAKER_00 59:05

Yeah, someone else, an Iraqi politician, made the same uh comparison, uh comparison. An Iraqi politician actually made the same comparison that Iraq, Iran now is like the post-Kwait war of Iraq. Weakened infrastructure hit, the army defeated, exactly weakened, but he said everything's still stayed in place. The regime, Saddam Hussein.

SPEAKER_01 59:32

It's the same thing, and and I don't think uh by the way, in this war, everybody forgets that Israel was in this war as well. Yeah, they have their own agenda, they have their own list. Yeah, US was more into the oil in the war. Israel is more into the war to actually security. Exactly. Security and stability and missile capabilities, because there's no threat by Iran and US when it comes to the missiles capabilities, but there's threats on Israel.

SPEAKER_00 1:00:05

But uh let's say what why do you think you said the war is Iraq has Iraq and the Gulf states didn't have anything to do with this war, but for the reality of the region, everyone was involved one way or another, of course. As an attacker or as a victim. Most were victims. The Kurdistan region, Kuwait, DUAE, and others. Why do you think these militia groups were attacking the Kurdistan region? It's one question that from leadership from top down has been asked. Why do you attack the Kurdistan region? And they said there are US bases here, but most of the drones and rockets fell on civilian homes on peaceful Peshmirgas.

SPEAKER_01 1:00:46

I mean, when it comes to the attacks by these groups, it was, yes, they they claimed that it was against US bases use. And there is the drones that US bases were actually um intercept. Intercepted, intercepting, and it was felling on civilians. But let's deal, like let's talk, like let's focus on the Iranian-backed groups, how they work. You need to know the structure. Like, there's a lot of groups that they are actually doing these things without any let's say, knowledge, any because it's not they they don't they just do it for the message.

SPEAKER_00 1:01:29

But don't if they are controlled by Iran, don't you think they have been told also by Iran to fire their rockets? Or you think a command, a militia leader in Bakuba or Mosul just suddenly woke up and decided to fire some rockets?

SPEAKER_01 1:01:43

Definitely it's a agenda that's coming from Tehran. Being commanded. Of course. This is like even in many, in many occasions, there were statements, there was like orders from Tehran, like even televised, saying the proxies you're doing a great job thanking the proxy wars that's happening in the region. For these groups, the easiest one to target is Kurdistan region. Why? It's because Kurdistan region, they think in it somehow it's part of Iraq, Baghdad is not going to do anything, there would not be a lot of pressure because at the end of the day they think that it's Kurds. Unfortunately, I mean, because once they target the Gulf states, this is a diplomatic crisis. But once they attack Kurdistan region and they claim that it's against the US bases and interest, it doesn't matter for them if it's against US interest or it's against civilians. Because let's let us remember that how many casualties they had when it comes to US and Kurdistan region? Zero. How many civilians they had? Two, yes. How many security forces of Kurdistan region? That was the biggest one. Yeah. The maximum was like up to, I believe, eight or nine. So this, the result, it shows you why they are targeting.

SPEAKER_00 1:03:07

So you mean the militia groups are attacking, attack the Kurdistan region just to show that they are active, they are part of the war, they are doing something, pay their dues.

SPEAKER_01 1:03:19

Of course. That's first thing. Second, they believe that if they attack the Kurdistan region, there will not be a big diplomatic crisis because it's between no repercussions basically from Baghdad. Exactly. Baghdad is not doing anything about it. And by the way, they did. They did a lot of attacks against Gulf, Jordan, and still nothing from Baghdad. But uh when it comes to the Kurdistan region, there was like because at the end of the day, the Kurdistan region never even fired a bullet against Iraq. That's like back, this is since 2003. Like I remember, like, I wrote something about that. Is that back in, if you remember post-referendum, there was an attack by Hajj Shabi and Iraqi forces against the disparate territories and the Peshmar. At that time, I wrote that the firing a bullet, it never came from the Kurdistan region. It never came from this side to the south. It was always a guess. It has always been. Yes. So if you if you think about uh why they are doing this, there's a lot of reasons. Like they claim that it's US. I don't think it's US. I think it's just because if it's US, why before that you were targeting Cormor, like the infrastructure, the the oil and gas and electricity infrastructure in Kurdistan region. So these groups that are doing, they have a lot of agenda, let's be honest. Economically, politically, security-wise, ideologically. So if you think that these groups are very, let's say, careful with their target, if it has to be used, but no, they don't. They don't care. And this is the main problem. Because Iran is pushing them to do it, but it's not pushing, there's no intelligence Iran into with them to say, oh, this is the Are you sure?

SPEAKER_00 1:05:16

Because the thing is that they are officials, officers, intelligence officers with them on the ground.

SPEAKER_01 1:05:24

No, that's absolutely no. Because I don't think Iran is kind of in a war with the US and comes to Kerkug or Mosul to be with these groups to fire a drone. That is, and by the way, the the drones used like they are very small and they they they build it themselves. So I don't I don't think the Iran was kinda in every yes, the generally, the general like operation it was commanding by Iran, but day to day, no, it was just these groups and without any Proper technology. They just to create mayhem. Of course. And to create chaos and showing that oh, we Iraq is doing something for Iran.

SPEAKER_00 1:06:09

Do you think that uh it's we all wonder what will happen next between Ervil and Baghdad after waking up from this dream of uh war against Iran? I'm sure the Kurds had their own calculations and hopes or wishes. The same with the Iraqis. Do you think anything is going to change? Will Erbil and Baghdad get closer to each other or there will be more mistrust?

SPEAKER_01 1:06:35

I think we both we like I hope they get closer and do something. By the way, I am always with the governments of both Erbil and Baghdad, they actually get closer to each other. Yeah, that's that's the problem that created uh post-ISIS or pre-ISIS, whatever you call it. The problem was that there is mis not miscommunication, but there's a lot of different actors that pushing Baghdad to do like to have a reaction to Erbil. This is this is the problem that Erbil and Baghdad they need to be closer to each other. If there's much closer to each other, uh trust me, there will be a lot of things different from now what have we now doing now. By the way, if we go back to 2003, 2004, before five, the leadership council that was created by US, it was like Kurds, Sunnis, and Shia. I think that was the best era for Iraq since 2003. Yeah, before the sectarian violence, I mean it's it was the Kurds, the Sunnis, the Shia, they were like on the same table doing something. Right now, you see Sunnis against Sunnis, yeah, Kurds against Kurds, Shia against Shia, and then vice versa as well. Kurds against Shia, Shia against so you have three companies, three ethnicities, three divided companies. Exactly. They are they are actually living together, but they will never be able to be on the same team. Because why? It's because of the ideology. And back in the days, like back in like the previous century, which is like I'm going back to Psychus Biko, I'm going back to history a lot because it's what we live now, it's because of the what happened in the history. Yeah. I mean, there is a lot, uh, there's a quote by one of the journalists that a good friend of mine, he says that Middle East is it's it feels like a puzzle, but every piece of the puzzle is not sticking, like is not fitting the puzzle itself. Yeah. You talk about Syria. If we go back to the history of Syria, it's always been like Jews against Alawis, Alawis against Sunnis, Sunnis against goods. Same goes to Iraq. But look at the Gulf. UAE, Saudis, yes, they have Shia, there's some kind of problems, but look at the Gulf. They don't have any problems.

SPEAKER_00 1:09:23

So in their case, this the the uh being ho uh not being as multicultural uh is good. It has helped the Gulf states. They are not as as diverse as Iraq or Syria.

SPEAKER_01 1:09:38

I mean, look at UAE. Yeah. The best we both agree as one of the top five countries when it comes to economy, everything, security, efficiency, it's number one in security, I believe, because I have been to Dubai and I have been in many occasions on the streets, I'll be like, wow. And to be honest, is the same thing in different locations. I have always said Erbil, because I lived in London for a long time, Erbil is more secure than London. When I say that, no, how you say that? Because I have been in the streets leaving my car without any proper, like, and there's cash in my car, like in some occasion, I haven't locked it. I went inside to get my coffee, came back, nothing happened. We like when it comes to London, trust me, one wrong direction by the GPS, and you go into a dark neighborhood, you're done. So if you go back to Gulf, you see the Gulf, like UAE perfect. Why? Because it's one company and it's there's not a problem. Syria, Iraq, always, Lebanon, like you have this kind of diversification, which is rich, which is beautiful, very beautiful. But it has not working against us. Yeah, it's not working. It's like I know a lot of people are saying that diversification coexists. Yes, I agree, it's beautiful. But let's sit down and face the reality, it's not working in Iraq. You cannot. Like it has always been US pushing the Kurds going to talk to Shia, Iranians pushing Kurds or pushing the Shia going to talk to Kurds. Stop.

SPEAKER_00 1:11:27

Yeah, I agree. I mean, Iraq should break up into three countries, which is an old idea, but that's the solution. If you cannot live together, Shias, Kurds, and Sunnis, we could say and shout for all we are worth on TV, on in the media, that we are brothers, we are diverse, multicultural, but on the ground it hasn't worked. So if the Kurds have their own state, which is Biden's solution during the sectarian war, a state solution. I think that's the solution. But the biggest fear in the mind of every Iraqi, even if they live in hell, if Iraqis live in hell and say, okay, if we divide this country, each part will turn into a paradise. They will still prefer to live in a united hell than a divided paradise. That's the problem.

SPEAKER_01 1:12:19

I mean, let's let's like let's shift ourselves. Let's go into the shoes of the Arabs, like the people in Baghdad. I would have thinking the same. I would have said Iraq, this is my country.

SPEAKER_00 1:12:33

No, you wouldn't have said the same. You would have sat down with yourself and being practical and realistic.

SPEAKER_01 1:12:39

I mean, no, no, I mean like an ordinary people. If you put it in an ordinary person. No, like for myself, if I'm like this, if I'm an Arab, a Kurd, Christian, and Muslim, whatever, whatever ethnicity, religion, I still believe when something is not working for the past hundred years, change it. Yeah. I'm not saying that the country, like, because we might have different, like, let's say, different approach to this. Um, but I don't think it's working. Like, I don't think even in the future for Syria is not working. I mean the current situation or the division? I mean, I mean the current situation, isn't it? I mean, uh hopefully it works. Hopefully, that both Iraq will go into a place that is going to be very like us, as you said, paradise. Paradise for everyone. Yeah. But unfortunately, we need to be realistic. I have always said that, like, even I don't want to shift the topic away but from this, but even like the problem in Iraq is that you a lot of people they have hopes for something, but in reality, we both know that this hope is kind of baseless, it's kind of debt.

SPEAKER_02 1:14:01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:14:02

I'm I don't I don't want to be pessimistic. Like I have a lot of let's say trust that Iraq will slowly do something when it comes to security, economy, socially, the most important part. But with the current current, let's say, agenda, the current individuals in power, no, you cannot.

SPEAKER_00 1:14:24

Yeah, no, and Iraq itself has never had a break and does not give itself a break of, let's say, 50 years without war in order to build something. That's the problem. In Iraq, the Iraqi leaders should be more loyal to the country. Someone should come along and say for the next 50 years there will be no war, no alliances, no militia group, only if you have a break. That's my worry for the Kurdistan region. We had the civil war in the 90s and the war with ISIS. They were small, short-lived. But since any progress we have had, social progress, economic progress, anything, it's because we have had a break from wars. I agree. But it seems that Iraq and Iraqi leaders even go to the poorest man on the street, he wants the country to buy a nuclear weapon tomorrow and drop it on someone else, should stop and say, okay, let's spend the money on our own children.

SPEAKER_01 1:15:21

I mean, like it this takes us to education. Unfortunately, the education, like even uh sorry, even past um like post-2003. I mean, what do you have been built, as you said? Roads, schools, hospitals. Unfortunately, nothing to be like mentioned here between us. You have a generation now, like, because I have been like, I have a lot of friends about that, very smart, they are working for different places, companies in the government, amazing. But you have a lot of people how who are like armed within the groups. If you can imagine an Iraq without problems, you need to think about this person should not be dead, he should be educated like this person who's in the company or government. Yeah, the main problem we have in Iraq is that, as you said, everybody is so ready to fight. And the next and the other person who is in front of him, he's also ready to fight. There's no one who takes a break. There's no one who sits down and says, you know what, we're not gonna actually go to this, we're not gonna be part of this. Let's sit down, let's have a moment of peace. Yeah. Because you didn't educate peace to these people in the big like post-2003. These young people, they are armed now, fighting every day. They are sending rockets to three, four different uh countries around Iraq, including within it, because there is no education. There's there's this kind of ideology that came to him, like to his mind, and been educating him since then, is the shrines, it's the Iranian influence. What do you have been doing to counter that? Even today, nothing. Yeah. Your education is not actually helping these people. While you see a lot of Iraqis back in pre-2003, they are now in different countries around the world. Maybe they are I have friends the same, you have friends the same. They are very successful, very smart. Why? Because of the education. And by the way, a lot of them they are not educated in Iraq, they are educated in Europe. And they are in the right environment. So I completely agree with that. I I I also like I don't know why individual in Iraq is always very ready to fight. Yeah, like they go always extreme. Like even in wars, they go extreme. Yeah, I mean, Iraq. Yeah. I mean, you remember the ISIS war, like I think I think it was videos were coming out. I mean, it was disturbing to maximum disturbing for me because the Shia against the Sunni, why? Why you go extreme? So I agree. It's it's unfortunate. I mean, Advance, I mean, I really hope that Erbil and Baghdad can together fix this. Because if Baghdad thinks that he can they can fix something without Erbil, trust me, you cannot. And same goes to Erbil. If you want to fix something without Baghdad, trust me, you cannot. You have to sit down together and do it without any influence from outside.

SPEAKER_00 1:19:08

Very good advice, very good uh place to also end this very enjoyable conversation. Thank you very much for having me. Thank you for coming and educating us on these things.

SPEAKER_01 1:19:19

Ah, no, sorry, I'm not educating, I'm just trying. It was a very good chat, to be honest, and I I enjoyed it. And I think um as we have conversation in front of uh the people, and I think we can also have conversation in the next few weeks or months because a lot of it's gonna happen. Um it was my pleasure.