Boxes, bags, and beyond: the forces reshaping e-commerce packaging

What does the future of e-commerce packaging actually look like? Industry expert Dr Windsor Holden joins host Adam Page to break down the trends, data, and regulatory shifts shaping the global market – and what they mean for businesses operating in this space.

This episode covers:

• Which regions are set to see the fastest growth 
• The rise of flexible packaging 
• How fashion and social media are accelerating e-commerce demand
• The regulatory changes pushing businesses towards a fundamental redesign of their packaging systems. 

Dr Holden is one of the foremost authorities on digital commerce and payments, with over 25 years of experience advising leading research firms, industry bodies, and global organisations. He is the author of Smithers’ latest market report The Future of E-commerce Packaging to 2031.

Listen to the full conversation and subscribe to Smithers Insights Podcast for more expert analysis on the packaging industry.

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Welcome to the Smithers Insight Podcast, the place for trends, tech and insights driving the global markets. From sustainable solutions to smart innovations, we unpack it all.

SPEAKER_01 0:15

Hello and welcome to the Smithers Insights podcast. My name's Adam Page. I'm the Vice President of Reports at Smithers. And I'm joined by my colleague Dr. Windsor Holden, who's our expert who has authored our new study on the future of e-commerce packaging. Hi, Windsor. Hi there, Adam. Yeah, so just to start, um, obviously there's been a huge amount of growth in this space. So, where do you see the growth coming for uh e-commerce packaging? Um, and what do you see as some of the biggest opportunities we're gonna see over the next few years?

SPEAKER_02 0:47

Okay, just to take a little step back, and it it is worth looking at why we've had this dramatic increase, I think, in e-commerce uh packaging sales. And of course, part of that is down to the fact that we've had this enormous increase in e-commerce itself, particularly since COVID, where you had this really huge transition from physical in-store purchases to digital purchases. Um, and at the same time, uh, that was also being accelerated by an increase in consumer adoption of smartphones. You know, you can essentially people are buying far more on smartphones than they ever did via uh via the uh the desktop devices. Uh and that's particularly the case, not just in uh markets such as Europe, um North America, but increasingly in markets in Southeast Asia, in South America, um particularly China, of course, and indeed in parts of sub-Saharan Africa as well. And where do you see the biggest growth taking place over the next few years? The biggest growth in terms of percentage year-on-year increases will be in those uh markets where you've still only got three, four, five percent of um of commerce uh online at the moment. So you will see a lot of uh growth in the more nascent markets in say South and Central America uh and the Middle Eastern Africa. In South America, Brazil is already uh you know, streets ahead of the competition there, but you you will see other markets, particularly, I'd have said places like Chile, Argentina, you know you're starting to see significant uptick in um e-commerce uh growth. And of course, in the Middle Eastern Africa, with kind of two different um sets of drivers there, um, particularly around digital inclusion, particularly around a burgeoning youth demographic, and of course, and critically here, it's these advancements in payments and logistics which is really driving the growth.

SPEAKER_01 3:06

And where do you see the growth in terms of end-use markets, end-use applications?

SPEAKER_02 3:13

In terms of the actual payments, it uh it's certainly, for example, um groceries and uh food purchases. That said, if we look at it from a from a packaging perspective, um, yes, there will be significant growth in the um in the groceries sector, but in terms of the actual value of packaging, um it's gonna be continue to be uh clothing, footwear, accessories. Um, so you know, at the moment it's something like just under 29% of total uh e-commerce packaging value. That's going to increase slightly over the next um you know five, six years to you know, past 30% before the end of the decade, and 31% say by 2031. Uh, and what are the reasons behind this? There's a lot of pushing of these products again by the social media and influencers. You know, you've got to wear the the you know the the the most fashionable items. So you know that in itself, this this huge social um purchasing phenomenon is very much driving the both the the you know the the larger per larger and more expensive clothing purchases, but also more frequent purchases um so that people are keeping up with the new styles.

SPEAKER_01 4:45

And then what what do you see as that some of the most exciting changes or disruption or development on the horizon?

SPEAKER_02 4:53

If we look at um the different packaging materials, um certainly you know, corrugated boxes are gonna continue to account uh for the largest market share there. And again, it was still over nearly 80% last year. And yes, that um it will still be the lion's share throughout the forecast period, but in terms of the actual growth here, flexible packaging um will certainly outstrip that of its rivals. You've got greater efficiencies there, you've got greater sustainability credentials, and that allied with these regulatory pushes on a national and international basis, will certainly um see a lot of growth in those particular packaging types.

SPEAKER_01 5:46

Thank you, Winter. So our new report on the future of e-commerce packaging to 2031 is available now from Smithers. Yeah, thank you very much. Cheers.

SPEAKER_00 5:58

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