Episode 3: Goodbye Keir - Hello Andy?

It was the former Labour Prime Minister, Harold Wilson, who said “a week is a long time in politics.” Well, the last couple of weeks have felt like a year.

Keir Starmer has announced he’s stepping down as Labour leader and Prime Minister. 

And after winning the Makerfield by election, self-proclaimed King of the North Andy Burnham looks set to be the next leader and PM. 

So will anyone challenge him for the keys to Number 10? And what will a Burnham government look like and seek to do?

In this week’s episode of the Political Breakdown, Simon Thomson and Douglas Beattie look at the implications of Andy Burnham returning to Parliament, what has happened since Makerfield and what could happen next…

 New episodes dropping regularly. Follow The Political Breakdown for sharp insight, honest analysis, and the stories behind the headlines shaping British politics. 

Transcript

SPEAKER_04 0:08

Hello and welcome to the political breakdown. I'm Simon Thompson, a former BBC journalist, a Labour parliamentary candidate, and now working in communications, media relations, and media training.

SPEAKER_03 0:20

And I'm Douglas Beattie, journalist and author of How Labour Wins and Victory at the Ballot Box.

SPEAKER_04 0:26

The last time you heard from us was in the run-up to the Makerfield by-election on the 18th of June. Now that already seems like a world away. In this episode, we'll examine what's happened since Makerfield, the result itself, and what's likely to happen next.

SPEAKER_03 0:40

Well, it's true, Simon, so much has happened. And I think you and I took the decision to deliberately delay this episode because there was so much churn in the news, and it was hard to predict what would happen next in terms of Keir Starmer and his role as Prime Minister. And uh Andy Bonham had just one Makerfield. So it was difficult to examine the moment and to project ahead with any degree of clarity. I think we're beginning to get some of that now, aren't we?

SPEAKER_04 1:10

We are, Douglas, yes. So much has happened since Makerfield. A week, as they always say, is a long time in politics. Well, it felt like there was a year of political action in the last few days. So much has happened since then. Things are changing very, very quickly in politics.

SPEAKER_03 1:26

Makerfield was in itself a huge moment. We talked about it a little bit on the previous episode with Jakub Kureshi. A huge moment in terms of by-elections. You were one of the people who were there during the end of the campaign. And I wanted to ask you just for some perspective on that, you know, what it was like to be on the ground there and what you made of it all.

SPEAKER_04 1:48

To be honest, Douglas, I really enjoyed it. I was there all day on polling day, doing as what they call get the vote out, knocking on doors, making sure that the Labour promise, people who'd said they were going to vote Labour did go out and vote Labour. It was a great atmosphere, I have to say. A lot of people I met from across the UK, there was somebody who'd said to me, um, have you met anyone not from North London yet? But actually, um I certainly met people from South London, I met people from the north of England, from the west of England, people came from all over the country to actually support Andy Burnham. It felt like the party was coming out to support him en masse. And yeah, it there were a number of MPs. Some of the MPs I saw during the day, I think probably were on a three-line whip to come up. Others were coming up to support him because they really passionately believed they wanted him to win and become potentially Labour leader and Prime Minister. And I think that says a lot. And while I was in Makerfield, I chatted to several people who'd come from different parts of the country to come up and help in the campaign and asked them why they were there.

SPEAKER_02 2:47

Hi, I'm Rachel Henry. I'm a Labour Party member and I live in Peckham in London. I think this by-election is gonna actually be quite historic. I think it's kind of the excitement and the prospect of change and Andy Burnham, you know, not only winning Makerfield but becoming Prime Minister. But yeah, just that really scary prospect that if Andy Burnham can't beat reform in Makerfield, I don't think a Labour government in a couple of years' time has a hope in hell of beating reform. So I see it as like really quite existential.

SPEAKER_00 3:17

My name's Mike Buckley, I run the think tank that works on the UK Europe relationship called the Independent Commission on UK EU relations.

SPEAKER_04 3:24

Why are you here today in Makerfield?

SPEAKER_00 3:26

A, because it's a Labour Balction and I want the Labour candidate to win, but also because I am still all these years I've got a big supporter of Andy Burnham and his style of politics, and also I believe him to be as as a as a human being, actually. I think he treats people very decently. I think that's a good indication of him and his politics, actually. So I'm keen to see the Labour candidate win as I always am, but on this occasion, I'm very keen to see him become a member of parliament and then also keen to see him progress from there.

SPEAKER_03 3:52

Clearly, there was a great positive mood, and just to reflect that, I wasn't on the ground in Mikafield. But what I was doing was keeping in touch with Andy Bunham's campaign team. And they always were clear to me that they were um confident without being hubristic about it. And I wondered if by the time you got there, if people were just wholly confident about, well, essentially beating reform and about Andy Bunham winning.

SPEAKER_04 4:17

It was interesting. But the message clearly on the day was it's very close, it's very tight. And that was the message we're being told, that was the message we were encouraged to tell people on the doorstep. And for all we knew, of course, it was potentially tight. This was an area of the country that recently returned almost uh unanimously reform councillors. It was an area that was being targeted by reform. And in fact, uh just along the road from the uh Labour HQ campaign headquarters was a reform headquarters. So it felt very busy along that main stretch of road uh in Wigan. But actually, in the end, the data showed that Andy Burnham not only won but won convincingly. And it was a very, I think, strong campaign, and most importantly, shows that he can win as a candidate and as a leader of Labour in areas that we've previously Labour has been struggling to.

SPEAKER_03 5:04

Yeah, well, I mean, there you heard it. Uh really, it was such a monumental victory in itself. But Andy Burnham, from memory, won more votes than all the candidates combined and increased the Labour majority, demonstrating very clearly that Labour can win in seats where reform had hoped to be victorious. In fact, you had Nigel Farage clearly very disappointed in, I think, the reform candidate, but also the number of votes that party pulled. And then if we fast forward just a few days, Keir Salmer had maintained that were to be a leadership challenge to him, he would fight that challenge. That started to unravel on the Sunday night following Makerfield, and by Monday morning the lecture was set up in Downing Street. In the end, Simon, do you feel that it was just a case that power had drained away from Keir Starmer and there was no other option but to resign?

SPEAKER_04 6:02

I think you're right, Douglas. Look, we both said, didn't we, before the Makerfield by-election, that if Keir Starmer felt the party was drifting away for him, that he was losing support of the cabinet of the wider party after the by-election, uh, that he may well decide to step down. And that's exactly what he decided to do. I mean, he'd obviously talked it over with his wife, he'd talked it over with senior politicians, they'd confided in. Ultimately, it was a very emotional speech from Keir Starmer when he did announce at that lecture, that famous lecture in Downer Street, just after nine o'clock on the Monday morning, that he was stepping down.

SPEAKER_01 6:40

Every decision I've taken has been about putting the country I love first. That is why I will resign as leader of the Labour Party. I shall spend more time on the most important job, being the best husband I can to my fantastic wife, Vic, and being the best dad I can. Thank you very much.

SPEAKER_04 7:04

You could hear the emotion in his voice, couldn't you there, Douglas, at the end? We've both met Keir Starmer and his wife, Vic. We've actually have even played football in the same team together with him. I've certainly seen his passion on the football pitch, but I don't think we ever really saw that passion with him as Prime Minister. You know him quite personally, very well personally from the constituency. Why do you think that is? Why do you think he he's he's never shown that passion, perhaps in number 10? And how do you think he's feeling? Do you think he's feeling numb at the moment? Do you feel sorry for him?

SPEAKER_03 7:34

Well, I do I do know him a bit through Camden, really, because we live relatively close to one another. We've played in the same football team with you a while ago, as as you mentioned. I think as a man he is genuinely very close to his family. It's no surprise to me that I think the key conversation would have been with his wife Vic and probably his children about uh you know whether he should fight on. Although I'm sure it was very obvious to Keir that the game was up, really. Yeah, I think in all honesty, we never really knew him as Prime Minister, not even two years in the job. It felt to me like perhaps he was just beginning to come to terms with the magnitude of the role. I doubt he'll hang around now terribly long. I I knowing him as I do, Simon, I think he will want to go off and do something else. I don't think he's one for just kind of sitting on his hands. He won't spend many, many years in parliament. I don't think there'll be a by-election anytime soon. He'll take stock, maybe rest for a few months, and consider what he wants to do next. There is some talk of Keir Starmer being interested in a role as Secretary General of NATO. Well, that might suit him perfectly well, actually, given that he always seemed quite happy in foreign fields doing that kind of job. So we shall see. But how will he be feeling at the moment? It is very difficult for us, isn't it? Just as kind of the looking in on it. So few people get to be Prime Minister. And it must for all of them be excruciatingly difficult to leave that job, no matter the huge demands and pressures that they're under while doing it.

SPEAKER_04 9:08

Yeah, absolutely. And I think, Douglas, doesn't it? It shows the cut and thrust of politics, the rawness of politics and emotions, that how things can change, ebb and flow, and change so quickly in terms of fortunes. A lot of luck in politics, but also you make your own luck. And perhaps, you know, the one criticism of Keir Starmer that stands out is that he was never somebody who had a political background. He was a director of public prosecutions, he came to politics quite late. And maybe ultimately that was the trouble. He never really had that connection with the party or with politics more widely.

SPEAKER_03 9:39

Yeah, indeed. And was always, I think, quite a private person. And I think Andy Bonham is a hugely sociable person. And in terms of communication, he's more fleet of foot. The test will be: will he be fleet of foot at the dispatch box? Will he be solid enough in his politics? Because he is very experienced to withstand the sectoral interest, the vested interests that are already coming at him, even though he's not yet prime minister, won't be until mid-July, or so late July, you know, from business, from the military, um, and from the opposition in terms of reform, for instance, calling for a general election, the Conservatives are not. So, you know, he will have to withstand already massive pressures around what his government will look like and how the money will be spent.

SPEAKER_04 10:26

The criticism is already coming for Angie Burno. The media's already attacking him. He's not even become leader prime minister yet. I mean, you saw that criticism from Kimmy Badenok saying that he's all um black t-shirts and eyebrows. And of course, he he then responded with a social media clip, sort of like with him saying it's actually blue. And I thought that was really good fun, but already the media is criticizing him for that, saying this isn't prime ministerial, like, you know, you can't win in politics. But I think it's I think it's really interesting, Douglas. Several of the MPs there in Makerfield were there because they knew ultimately, without a change of leader, they felt that um reform would beat them in their seats and there'll be reform government in waiting. I and I think that's part of the appeal of Andy Burnham. I mean, he knows how to win, he's proved it that he can win in seats like Makerfield in the north of England. But I think, as you say, he's a good communicator as well. He's he's got a great sense of humour. He generally likes people, he generally cares as well. I mean, I had a quick chance to chat to him in the morning at Makerfield before we went out door knocking, and I also got him to commit um willingly to support the poverty prevention pledge that I've been working on as part of my work. And he said, Yeah, of course he will. He he generally shows passion for issues like that. And I think that comes across when you meet him personally and on the doorstep. And I think it's not just that though, he he's clearly challenging the status quo politically and economically. He's offered an alternative vision to the neoliberalism and the trickle-down economics of the last 40 years. He's openly says it's not worked, it's not worked for places like Makerfield and other areas in the UK. And he's shown that he can deliver an alternative vision and policies. In Manchester, for example, he's not afraid to speak out and shows leadership, vision, and leadership. And I think, Douglas, that is something that many of our politicians in this day and age lack. They lack the awareness to speak out and and to change political opinion. They actually just seem to be led by it. A senior political figure in Makerfield said to me, they said that, in their opinion, that many of the new MPs that they've met uh since 2024 almost are unable to make decisions. They are unable to think for themselves. And I think that's quite interesting.

SPEAKER_03 12:42

Here is Andy Bunnum, who has been basically at the forefront of British politics one way or another since about 2001. Burnham has developed as a politician. I think he's more confident as a politician now, and he'll bring that back to Westminster. I think the key thing is how he sees the economy and how it can work for people, work for the many, not the few, if you like. Burnham has a chance to be a little bit like Harold Wilson here, who in the 1960s kind of renewed Labour and Labour socialism and tried to re-hardwire Britain. You know, he made this technical revolution. Yeah, the white hot heat of technical revolution. And I think Andy Burnham wants to do this through things like basically through devolution, I think, and powering up the cities and providing, you know, the economic, the fiscal muscle for cities to build homes, improve the skills and transport, that kind of thing. So it's a huge step change, and I think he has the confidence to do that. But the key decision is who his chancellor is, because he will have to have a strong relationship with that chancellor, basically on the same page, sort of driving in the same direction. Would you agree with that? And who do you think the chancellor should be?

SPEAKER_04 13:56

Yeah, and I was chatting to a former civil servant recently, Douglas, who used to work in the Treasury and was explaining actually how decisions are made in the Treasury and how, in his view, it's the Treasury that has the real power in government rather than the number 10. So I think whoever he does pick as Chancellor will have, yes, that strong authority. And it's going to be quite interesting. Does he, for instance, choose Ed Miliband, who will obviously be pushing for net zero and for renewables, uh, and be opposed to perhaps opening up more oil and gas fields in the North Sea? Or does he go for someone like West Streeting, who has openly sort of seen to move to the to more to the left in terms of his recent uh speeches, talking about a wealth tax, for example. So it depends what he wants in terms of economic strategy and who he wants to present it. Does he want to appeal to the left of the party, the right, or the perhaps the centre ground? And I think sometimes you can play too much in terms of uh factions in the party. It's about delivering policy. And as you said, I think what's really interesting, what's most important is the political and economic agenda that a uh Andy Burnham government will bring to this country. We've spoken about before, for example, making sure that the uh day-to-day spending doesn't perhaps include things like uh defence. So that's taken out of day-to-day spending. Other countries have done that, and I really can see Andy Burnham doing that too, but also investing infrastructure, as you say, investing in communities and making sure that um the economics of this country work for not just at the top but also the bottom.

SPEAKER_03 15:33

He has to have the strength to stick to his decisions. I think the best decision he can make on this particular role about being Chancellor is to appoint Ed Miliband. I think he's the only person around a cabinet table who has not only the understanding of the political economy, but the vision, the vision around all of that about what Britain can look like in the next 20 or 30 years. And I think the two will work very well together.

SPEAKER_04 15:59

Ed Miliband, of course, has been living in the past. I was a candidate when he was the leader of the Labour Party. Unfortunately, I lost my seat in 2015. Uh, do you think he wants to come back and be Prime Minister? I I'm not so sure personally, but but maybe the Chancellor.

SPEAKER_03 16:15

Definitely, Chancellor. I don't think he is a threat to Andy Burnham, either in the long term or the short term as leader. I honestly I think his real goal is having the power of the balance sheet and being able to control the money. And I see Ed around quite a bit, and he has a very nice life. He's always exercising his on his bike or he's swimming and all that kind of thing. I think his ambition would stop at him basically being chancellor and yet being able to live some kind of balanced life. Now, if that's the case, that is a very healthy outlook. You know, you saw in Keir Starmer's resignation speech that he clearly had been living with some pressures around his family life. You know, if you if one is to read between the lines, the emotion at the end of the speech would tell us that. So I think Ed Miliban can do this job of being Chancellor, Andy Burnham can get on with being leader, the two would work together. It will then be a question of who the place around them, and if you have a government all pulling in the same direction, that is a very good thing for the party in the country. And clearly Andy Burnham has huge support within the parliamentary Labour Party, the MPs, and I imagine the membership as well.

SPEAKER_04 17:22

Absolutely. And in fact, while I was in Makerfield, Douglas, I I asked people what they hoped an Andy Burnham government would bring to this country, what it would do differently to a Keystone government, and this is what they said.

SPEAKER_02 17:34

I think Burnham has a really good analysis on what has gone wrong in this country, and I think he's willing to say that the economic model has just not worked for people for 40 years. This is a long-standing structural issue with the way that the economy is run and the fact that it just feels completely rigged against people, completely unfair. Things are just totally out of whack. So I think his analysis is right on just what is wrong. I think his focus on kind of the economics and the basics in people's life and things needing to be fair is right. He feels like quite an instinctive politician that is quite focused on justice. He's been willing to take some like pretty big stands in his career, you know, like he's done Hillsborough, you know, do you remember all like the king of the north stuff in COVID? He just stuck it to the government and said, like, we're being completely screwed over, this is not fair. And I think people like that. They just kind of like they see and feel that he's he's kind of on their side and he is willing to shoot from the hip and he's not just triangulating and playing politics.

SPEAKER_00 18:42

He is a much more human person and he manages to communicate in a way and handle himself in a way that I think does just kind of engender trust support in not in everybody but in a number of people. Like he looks and feels like a normal human being that you might meet in your normal life. And I think that actually means a lot, and it's quite unusual suddenly in our politics these days. So that's one thing. But I think also he's he's just learned a lot through being in parliament, through being Manchester Mayor, through living the life that he's lived, trying to change the things that he's wanting to change. So I think that learning, that frustration, but also that remaining passion can take him a long way and could could change our politics in our country.

SPEAKER_04 19:20

Douglas, at the moment it's not clear if anyone will actually challenge Andy Burnham. We know they have to have 81 MPs supporting them to actually get to be nominated to stand as a challenger for the leadership to become Prime Minister. The deadline is the 15th of July. Do you see anyone challenging him?

SPEAKER_03 19:38

I think a coronation is the most likely outcome. I think it's what most people are moving towards within the parliamentary Labour parties, as I've said, huge momentum already behind Andy Bunham. The one person who may yet challenge him is Al Kahns, who is a former defence minister, worked within that team, and resigned recently over their defence spending. Andy Bunham is doing a series of speeches on the economy, and Al Kahn has made it clear that depending on what Andy Bunham says, he will run or not run. So he's got a series of tests and so on. My take on this is Arl Kahn is raising his profile and is doing it very well. This is clearly not his time to be a leader. So whether he wishes to run or not is kind of up to him, but I I would probably think he won't in the end.

SPEAKER_04 20:26

Yeah, I I I think so too. I think he obviously can't unless he gets the age one nominations. And to be honest, it's quite clear from that photograph that Andy Burnham took with all the MPs standing behind him and the selfie in Westminster Hall, that MPs are falling into line behind him. It reminded me a little bit actually of the old saying, the king is dead, long live the king. You know, that that that they were so keen to sort of forget the last leader and welcome the next. But yeah, you know, I I think it's gonna be very interesting what happens, but I I would suspect that Andy Burnham does become Prime Minister, as you say, with a coronation, but not before having set out um some of his policies and his his vision for the country.

SPEAKER_03 21:03

Yeah, absolutely agree. What we're probably seeing is um a transfer of power from North London, when you think about Keir Starmer, Jeremy Corman, and before that, Ed Miliband himself, although if he's Chancellor, he still has power. Uh all of them live or have their constituencies in North London. All that transfers basically to the Northwest and it becomes a centre of power around Manchester and so on for the Labour Party. And Arn De Burnham, if he is to become Prime Minister, he becomes Labour's eighth Prime Minister and the third to take over in midterm after Jim Callaghan and Gordon Brown and then Burnham himself. So Callaghan and Brown had a chance to call early elections and didn't do so, probably regretted it. So, you know, we will see, we will see what happens. But it's an absolutely fascinating time, hugely historic moments, both for the Labour Party and the country, really.

SPEAKER_04 21:57

Well, Douglas Beatty, thank you very much as always for your contribution. I'm very much looking forward to seeing what happens next. And of course, we will both be back together soon on the political breakdown to discuss potentially a new Prime Minister in Dani Street, probably going by the name of Andy Burnham. Thank you, Simon.