WORLD CUP ETC - DISCUSSION: Last Nations Confirmed for 2026 Finals

Paul Schmidt-Troschke & Jon Bonfiglio discuss the final playoffs for the 2026 World Cup, and related topics. 

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:27

Everyone, welcome back to World Cup, etcetera, where today we are going to debrief on the European, the final European uh qualifiers and of course the intercontinentals as well that took place in Mexico, and then look at uh one or two choice uh friendlies uh stories that relate to some of the uh the friendlies that took place over the course of the the weekend. Maybe we can start. Um I'm joined uh by Paul Schmidt Troshka, the Earth's while the rock that is the tower that is Paul Schmidt-Troshka. Um, all right, Paul, how are you?

SPEAKER_01 1:01

Thanks, John. I'm doing very good. Yeah, crazy day yesterday.

SPEAKER_00 1:04

Yeah, well, it's been an interesting few days for sure. Maybe we can just start with the Intercontinentals in Mexico. It seems to me that that's the almost the easiest place to start. Uh, both top-seeded teams, uh, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Iraq went through to uh to the World Cup. Congo after a 1-0 win over Jamaica and Iraq 2-1 over Bolivia in uh in Monterey. I guess we can just uh have some reaction to that, and then also a little bit to uh something we've discussed before, but the perceived preparations uh of Mexico ahead of the the World Cup. Um I guess as we predicted, the the wins for the Congo and Democratic Republic of Congo and Iraq were somewhat expected.

SPEAKER_01 1:49

Yes, absolutely. As we um also spoke about it in our match previews, um the difference in skill and also in um in legacy of uh both the Congo and Iraq on the one side and Bolivia and Jamaica on the other one um is quite notable. So to make these or it were we were I've at least felt quite comfortable to to make these predictions um for in favour of Iraq and the Democratic Republic of Congo. But there were definitely um some some matches yesterday, John, which went uh I wouldn't say completely unexpected, but um yeah, still made history.

SPEAKER_00 2:34

Yeah, I mean it's it's probably the place for us to begin. Uh I mean it's lots of different places, but it's very unavoidable Italy's exit for the third World Cup in a row, which is even more staggering given the expanded nature of this uh World Cup. Of course, it isn't just for Italy, this isn't just a sporting failure, it is almost a cultural um as well. We've we've spoken many times about how sport uses politics and vice versa. Um but this is feels as though it is a um a cultural failure as much as it is a sporting failure for for Italy.

SPEAKER_01 3:16

Yes, absolutely, and um I mean uh there was some hope when um when Italy won the Euros, but before and after that, nothing of the fundamentals which which led to the previous two um disasters of not able uh not being able to qualify for the World Cup, nothing changed after after the Euros. Um you could even say that um yeah the Euros probably deceived the Italian FA into thinking uh maybe it's uh it's not so bad. But in fact, if you look back in um like 15 years ago approximately, there was a report written, I think a 900-page report, um, about the state of the um of the Italian national football and what needs to change that uh yeah, catastrophe uh can be avoided, which by now we know it uh wasn't avoided because the report wasn't uh it wasn't used as like a guideline to actually make changes.

SPEAKER_00 4:20

Yeah, and and and and a big footballing nations, nations with pedigree can fail to qualify on one occasion, but three occasions absolutely suggests a lack of um a lack of planning, a lack of sort of root and branch reform. And the thing I'll draw to is the fact that you could you could almost say, well, you know, the odd game, so it was one all, Italy played well, and then they they failed to go through on penalties. But actually, if you look at the statistics by the end of uh normal time, the um the Bosnians had 25 shots on target to Italy's six. Sorry, 10 shots on target to Italy's two, and in total 25 shots to Italy's six. Um, the Italian goalkeeper made 10 times more saves than the than the Bosnian goalkeeper. It was completely one-sided stuff, and it does feel as though there is a real stasis to um to Italian football at the moment, which has been um in evidence for quite a long period of time. Still really impossible to understate the significance of this uh of this of this result. And um the the group that Italy would have gone into, the Canadian group, are obviously very happy that um that this is now Bosnia-Herzegovina that is in there rather than Italy. The next result um uh that uh went to penalties, second match was uh Chechia, the former Czech known as the Czech Republic, and Denmark to all 3-1 on penalties. Interesting at this end of things because uh Chechia goes into the the Mexico group, so Mexico knows its um its final opponent there, and also just uh as it I guess worth going back in history into the and into penalties because penalties have been around for half a century now, of course, since 1970 was when they were first introduced in in England in the World Cup in Spain in 1982. But prior to that, these sorts of games would have been resolved by tossing coins or counting corners, uh, really unusual eventualities like um uh like that. What's your sense of uh Chechia going through at the expense of Denmark, Paul?

SPEAKER_01 6:28

Um I uh uh I am very happy, um, definitely, because uh yeah, it's a historic moment for for Chechia, and um the Danes uh are definitely a very decent team, and um yeah, it was a very, very competitive game as well. Um, but I mean in the end uh the the Czechs um yeah, just uh as you see so often uh in in penalty shootouts, who has the better nerves, who has the stronger nerves, the stronger mentality? Um one thing back to Italy. Um, I mean, two Italian players missed penalties, they didn't even get it on target, and that says a lot about um yeah, about the pressure and uh about the the whole team spirit around how to deal with this pressure, um, namely yeah, not being able to deal with it. Um, but back to back to Czechia and and Denmark. Um I'm very happy happy with the with the result. Um the the Danes can uh have a next chance uh next time. And uh yeah, I think when they they participated in 2022 um by actually defeating Czechia. So now it was basically just uh uh revanche, which was won by Chechia. So um yeah, fair enough.

SPEAKER_00 7:45

I mean uh I think also an important failure, a marked failure for Denmark as well. I mean, Denmark maybe wouldn't regard itself as being a top-tier footballing nation, but they're definitely a strong European nation that that have significant pedigree. So their failure to get through automatically, let alone through these playoffs, is also worthy of note. And then in the third game, um, I think this uh really quite a remarkable game between Kosovo and Turkey. Again, not just because of what took place on the fit on the pitch, but also Kosovo were vying for their very first uh World Cup, which they failed to achieve. Again, there's a sort of self-determination and a and a presence on the international stage, which validates uh their existence as a as a nation, which was important there, and Turkey, uh as big a footballing roller coaster ride as there is on the planet, perhaps. And they go into the group with a USA, Paraguay, and Australia. Now, the team that's going to be very least happy about all of that is a USA, especially given its recent friendly results, which we'll come to in in a little bit. It um that group now, I think, between the USA, Turkey, Paraguay, and Australia is, I think, is completely wide open. It's impossible to see which teams would would come through that. Paraguay, even fairly middle of the road um South American footballing nation, potentially might even see itself negotiating a way out of that group.

SPEAKER_01 9:14

Yeah, the that that group makeup is uh is extremely exciting to me. Um, because I mean, also also with these um with these last qualifications um and how the qualifying of the World Cup went uh in total, is that these small, many small nations um who never qualified before very unexpectedly um beat uh household names, how it happened with Bosnia and Italy um right now. So um we definitely shouldn't under underestimate it, uh underestimate these uh these nations. Um yeah, and regarding regarding the group. Um yeah, I mean Turkey is a very, very weird case because it's um one of the biggest countries in Europe, um, geopolitically very strong, um, also with uh with quite a and not healthy, but definitely a big um big economy. Um, but they they not neither with with their league or with the national team are able to play um yeah on the on the top stages in international football.

SPEAKER_00 10:21

They're just not consistent, really. I mean they've got everything they I would say that they're sort of a burgeoning footballing power, if you like, both as regards the economic possibilities of their of then of their national league, but also the quality of their league, also, and as regards their their um national side, there's definitely a number of good players there, but again, just this these results, these very poor results uh that the USA um managed to achieve, which throws uh the US national team, I think, and Mauricio Pochettino into something of a crisis prior to prior to the World Cup, makes it distinctly possible actually that the USA might not emerge from from that group.

SPEAKER_01 11:04

Yes, um we've seen in the friendlies uh that the that there's definitely a lot of psychological pressure on the on the US team, um lots of frustrations uh visible when uh yeah um when they got a goal. Um and yeah, I mean Pochettino as well uh is under huge amounts of pressure because what we what we see in in the US right now is um that's uh that doesn't come as a surprise to anybody, the shift to authoritarianism. And if uh an authoritarian leader or an authoritarian uh authoritarian party does not like one thing, then it is to appear weak in any capacity, in any form on the international stage. So and and these players and uh yeah, the whole team with coach and staff, they will feel this pressure. Um and uh yeah, the they couldn't handle it in the end.

SPEAKER_00 12:00

And uh yeah, Pochettino's had a bad bad weekend, bad last few days, partly because of the the results, of course, for the US national team, but also because of Roberto De Zerbi's appointment at Spurs, which his um Pochettino's potential uh I mean he'd said recently about wanting to return to the Premier League, and the most likely club to not just that might want him back, uh, but also that would uh um give him an a sort of an outlet from the USA because he he's out of contract um at the end of this summer tournament, would it was Tottenham Hotspur, but obviously that now is not going to happen with Roberto de Zerbi's appointment at um Tottenham Hotspur. Um the fourth match uh in uh Europol, Sweden three, Poland two. To be fair, either of those sides would have graced the World Cup. Poland have a number of um really good players, and of course Lewandowski uh not playing in the World Cup is going to be something of a miss. But equally, uh Sweden uh appearing is um yeah, then they're they're a good side by any by any standards, and that makes the group that they go into as well Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia also a really strong group. I mean, Tunisia perhaps, I mean the an okay side, but uh the matches between Netherlands, Japan and Sweden. In in in a traditional World Cup season, you would struggle to see which of those to which two of those three would make it through. But now, of course, potentially given the again the expanded World Cup, all three of them may uh may emerge. And that's it. That is now all of the finalists now confirmed ahead of the World Cup beginning in just over two months' time.

SPEAKER_01 13:44

Yes, um, very, very excited um how everything how everything went. Um, and also, yeah, in which uh which groups got now filled with which teams.

SPEAKER_00 13:56

Um exciting matchups I had. Um two other matches to just to draw our attention to. If if I might, of course, we've referenced uh the USA's terrible results, uh, one of which was against Belgium. Uh Mexico and Belgium also played off on uh uh Tuesday the 31st in Chicago at Soldy Field and drew one all, which also um I think the Mexican crowd of the Azteca against Portugal were really irate and impatient. But these in Belgium and Portugal, Mexico played off against two top quality oppositions, and it's one of those half full, glass half full, half-empty um reactions because Mexico only conceded one goal on the one hand, and they didn't lose either of the matches. But then on the other hand, you could say, well, they didn't win either of the matches, and they only scored one goal. But my take on it is that they actually performed a really depleted Mexican side, both home and in Chicago, actually performed very creditably against very strong European opposition.

SPEAKER_01 14:57

Yes, and uh, I mean, while um Mexico did not win either of uh these games, the US lost both quite decisively against the same teams, uh, Belgium and Portugal, um, which uh yeah definitely shines uh a better light on the Mexican team as uh as it was maybe a couple of weeks before.

SPEAKER_00 15:17

And then the final match um I'd like to just uh pause and have a quick chat about was the nil-nil resort between Spain and Egypt, um, which achieved uh unfortunate columnches because of anti-Muslim chants that were directed by the Spanish crowd at the Egyptian national side, which caused um Spanish forward uh and star young star Laminamal to come out and say that it was uh that it was disgusting, and that even though it wasn't directed at him, that actually anti-Muslim chance just revealed the poverty of the people undertaking uh those chants, and it was an unfortunate um an unfortunate uh series of incidents that that took place which continue to shine a light on the ongoing issues of um problematic crowd behavior that are not exclusive to to a nation. I mean, we heard some of the ongoing chance in the matches in Mexico, the homophobic chance uh Paul as well, but it's um it's and we've obviously covered that before, but it definitely seems on the one hand as being something which the authorities pretend to take seriously but don't really take seriously, and continue just continues to sort of unfortunately permeate mass sort of group behavior in a lot of stadiums across the world.

SPEAKER_01 16:35

Yeah, I mean I definitely agree with you that this is a global phenomenon, but in this specific case, um in the game between Spain and Egypt, we need to remind ourselves that Spain has a long history and rivalry, is maybe an understatement, with Islamic nations, with Muslim nations. Um Spain was occupied for a couple of centuries, at least partially, by um by Islamic forces. And um so there is a historical part to to this um to this rivalry, but of course, also Spain was um my last big favorite, um, of course, apart from from France, to to win the World Cup. And now to see them lose, uh not lose, but I mean in the in their minds, probably it would definitely was a loss. Um in the end it was a draw. But uh yeah, I understand the the anger within the Spanish fans about that result, but to react then in such a in such a manner is completely unacceptable. And of course, we have seen and heard about so many anti-racism campaigns, not only from FIFA, but also uh from UIFA. But I think the big issue is that the that FIFA and UEFA don't use their leverage to actually um yeah enforce some kind of rules around uh what happens when fans engage in racist behavior. I mean there are rules, but they are enforced um not to the fullest extent at all. And more broadly, if you look into the individual national leagues and the chance which are thrown against the enemy fan block, if you exchange the names of the enemy clubs in these chants with ethnic groups, you would definitely call these chants genocidal in some cases. So my point is that this human need to um yeah, feel that you are part of some tribe and it's us against somebody else, it it doesn't really matter in the end who who else you're going up against, um is always there, um of course to different degrees in in different regions of the world. Um but if you then move from this regional level up to the national level, it's not anymore a city against uh another city, uh, but a nation against another nation. And um, of course, then racism comes into play as well to distinguish yourself from the other group, no matter what other ways there are to do that. So it's definitely not a defense of it, it's just um yeah, my analysis of why this is still so persistent.

SPEAKER_00 19:25

Yeah, I mean, I guess it depends on whether you support a side because um they you see that you see yourself reflected in them to some extent um and you enjoy sports, or whether it's because you are completely subsumed into a particular kind of identity, um, and that there is no you can't see yourself outside of that. And if that takes place, if the latter exists, then unfortunately, then you begin to see demons in uh different colored shirts, different coloured uh faces, different heights, and and so on. And I think that's where these tribal rivalries become problematic. Um thanks, Paul. Uh, for those of you out there, uh regular listeners to World Cup, etc., just want to say an ongoing thank you as our numbers grow across our international um audience, um heading very much in the right direction ahead of the World Cup. And we're um enjoying uh being able to cover the myriad of issues and topics that relate to football, of course, generally, but also this particular fascinating World Cup. And then just as a final point, I'd say that also this month uh in World Soccer Magazine, I have a piece on uh which contextualizes the importance of um Haitian's uh World Cup qualification and sort of places it in a in a historical context, uh not just as regards the fact that it's only qualified for one other World Cup in 1974, but also given it sort of takes the um its historical colonial difficulties and sort of explains why this particular qualification, given everything that's taking place in Haiti, is really such a big deal. So, as ever, uh everybody, thanks for listening and look forward to to talking again soon.