DISCUSSION: Spain vs. Belgium

Declan Link & Paul Schmidt-Troschke engage in a gentle disagreement over their predictions for and the result of the Spain vs. Belgium quarter final. 

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:24

Everyone, welcome back to World Cup Football, etc. Um, after the Spain-Belgium game in the quarterfinals of the World Cup, where Spain ran out 2-1 winners with a late goal from Super Sub Miguel Marino for the second match uh running. With me are Declan Link. Hello, Declan. Hello, John. And hello, Paul Schmidt Troschka.

SPEAKER_00 0:45

Hello, John. Hello, Declan. Uh, Declan, you can be so happy with the result of this game, right? Because Oh, hold on, Paul. I can't see you.

SPEAKER_03 0:53

Can you Paul, I can't see you. Can you get out from behind the sofa, please?

SPEAKER_02 0:57

Listen, let me just let me just clarify this for listeners, for new listeners or listeners who may have missed the uh the podcast a couple of days ago, uh, in which one of us was very candid about Belgium likely generating difficulties for Spain. And then another one of us, and I was neither one nor the other, by the way, I'm absolved of both of these. And then the other one was very dismissive of that first point of view of uh of Belgium having uh having a chance. Paul, can you just clarify who was who was who in this uh description I've just given?

SPEAKER_00 1:29

Um I of course was uh was rooting for the underdog as always, and um and boring Declan was like, I know Spain's gonna take it away. Uh Belgium has no chance at all. Um I think he still has some some explaining to do, but we will get into this now.

SPEAKER_02 1:45

Yeah, um let me just give you some some kind of key stats, I think, from from the match. Uh, I mean, of course, this was uh Spain's first goal conceded uh at the World Cup. Um they had 70% possession today, uh just under 70% possession, as opposed to Belgium's uh 30 odd percent possession. Expected goals was interesting, uh 2.08 for Spain, 0.37 uh for for Belgium. Not quite the discrepancy that we saw yesterday with France and Morocco, but still pretty remarkable um difference between the two. Touches inside the opposition box, 42 for Spain, just 11 for Belgium, and Spain more than twice as many passes, more than twice as many passes as Belgium. All of that, of course, indicates significant superiority for the Iberians, but as has happened on um uh right through the World Cup and as happen as has happened historically for Spain too, uh Declan, they just are unable to translate this uh dominance into a cutting edge in front of gold.

SPEAKER_03 2:54

Yes, I um I I thought the first half sort of followed exactly what we were all thinking was going to happen was that Spain were gonna have a lot of possession, they would create some chances, hopefully, from their perspective, they would score one. Belgium would be sort of sitting back, um, you know, just just trying to soak up as much pressure as possible. Um, the the the first goal from uh Fabian Ruiz, they Spain actually scored it at a very good time. It was a nice goal. Um, but then Belgium equalised just before half time. So it was nicely poised at the end of the first half, and then obviously in the second half, it became much more of an end-to-end type of game, a game of chess, with Spain, as you said, you know, with ultimately having 68% of the possession, but not having that cutting edge up front. It's very handy for Spain to be able to call upon the services of Mikel Marino uh as um obviously he scored in the 88th minute, and he'd also scored the extra time winner against Portugal in the last round, and has consistently done that when he's not injured for Arsenal in the Premier League this year, so he's a fantastic utility player to bring off the bench. Um, but the difference I think between today's performance by Belgium and yesterday's performance by Morocco was that uh Belgium actually made a fair fist of it. They they had a go today, and if it wasn't for the fact that uh uh Tibor Courtois went down with his hip injury, um I think that they could have easily gone to uh to to extra time and and knowing PST as I do, that's gonna be one of his excuses.

SPEAKER_02 4:38

Well, Paul, this it's time for you to either justify or excuse uh depending on your on your view of the match.

SPEAKER_00 4:46

No, I would um I would definitely say that um that the Côtoy being injured, which which of course is in general a very rare and uh and unlucky um unlucky uh happening was definitely the biggest factor for Spain winning in in normal time because that was the only chance where um where yeah the the goalkeeper could make and in in in fact made a significant error there. And I think that Côte probably would have not made this error, who knows, but he definitely would have would have had um much much better chances. Overall, I would say I mean Spain is just the Spanish team is just a unit, right? You have great individual talents, I mean, across the board, but they are one unit, and I think that was the biggest difference to um to Belgium today, at least when it comes to the midfield and offense, because the Belgian team they defended quite remarkably, I think. They they have foreseen many um many tricks which Spain tried to pull um pull out of the box um in the in the in the penalty area, and uh they were just defending extremely well and um and really uh didn't give too many chances for um for uh for any Spanish player to actually get a shot, uh proper shot on target, um in a in a fortunate favorable position. Um and I have to um point out one individual performance uh by which I was or with which I was really uh really impressed. Uh Jeremy Doku, I mean we know that that he's an exceptional player, but I think today he um he really um showed what what he can do. Again, if he does not have a team which is then built around his individual performance, of course, this is a problem. And I mean in the end, it was not really close, right? I mean, um I I have to uh make make some some uh not not excuses but but some explanations there. Uh I mean Belgium in in the end got two shots on target, and one of them um they they were able to transform into a goal and um and the other one not. So uh and and that's I think to to the to Spain's seven shots on target. Um but still I think that um that uh that Declan would have expected more of a Morocco performance from Belgium and more of France performance from Spain. So in that regard, uh I I mean I didn't end up being right, um, but at least not completely wrong.

SPEAKER_02 7:27

Sorry, um the couple of noises in the background there. One, of course, um uh dog noises, and then the other noise, which I always really appreciate, is um is Declan typing in the background. But whenever I hear you typing, Declan, I can hear I can almost see the thought bubble over your head. I can hear you, the gray cells whirring. You've obviously had a thought and you've either googled it or you're noting it down. Uh so what what what is it that uh that uh came to mind as um as Paul was was explaining himself?

SPEAKER_03 8:00

Well, I'm I'm amazed that you can actually hear me when I'm typing, because I have my laptop in front of me, but I actually have my microphone off. So I just assumed that you wouldn't hear me banging away with my middle finger on uh on the keyboard. So um no, I was I was just uh you know analysing and and and uh digesting what what Paul was saying because I I I thought there was ultimately in the same way that I think tomorrow's game is going to go a certain way as well, there's a certain level of predictability, and the only game in the semi in the quarterfinals I don't think is um is um is unpredictable, or sorry, I think is unpredictable is that is the game tomorrow night in Kansas City. Um I'm just amazed at how uh Spain seem to have more depth than on the off the bench um than than everyone gives them credit for and the the the faces, the ages of the a lot of the Spanish players is really refreshing because they look like uh some of the kids that are playing and coming off the bench look like they're an under-15 team. Um I'm disappointed for Belgium because they did give a good good fist of it, as I said, but when when all is said and done, uh again, you know, FIFA have got it right so far with uh two of the four seeds in the semi-final and the game in in Dallas on Tuesday should be a fantastic game. And again, with my own selfish interests at heart, I think that Spain stood or stand a much better chance of beating France and knocking them out of the final um than Belgium did. So uh, you know, when all is said and done, I'm two for two. How's everyone else do?

SPEAKER_02 9:41

Yeah, um, I mean Belgium are definitely they'll be disappointed, of course, going out against Spain, but I think they've definitely exceeded expectations in this World Cup, especially given their sort of their their underperformance, if you like, at a previous um previous World Cups. We're actually all two from two. We all went France, Spain. Paul undenied a bit about whether he was gonna um shoot for Belgium or not, but uh I have it in black and white in front of me that eventually he said um he said Spain. So yeah, two two from two, and what a semi-final that's that's gonna be. Um I always think about Romella Lukaki. I'm sure we all had this experience as as kids. You know, when when you play with a big kid and then the big kid is losing, and then at some point he just picks up the ball and just carries it into the opposition net, and nobody can really complain. I think really that's what Lukaka should have done in the 90-second minute, just to make a statement that the ball was his, that he was bigger than anybody else, and that uh he was going to take the game away with him if um if Spain didn't um didn't comply. I would have just uh uh approved of that of that visual, I think. But no, I think I think Belgium definitely emerge with um with surprising credit from this World Cup poll.

SPEAKER_00 10:50

Yes, absolutely. Um unfortunately, although I think that um that many of the players which uh which were significant, for example, Lukaku scored um as a Joker in the last three games, and he will be at an age as well as um as uh Steven de Goyne, for example, right? He will be out probably in the wit uh in the next World Cup. I mean, um this year we weren't really expecting uh necessarily these two people um on the pitch still, and I think that that Belgium um I mean I would say best World Cup performance uh of my life, at least of my over my lifetime, um this uh this year. But they missed the window, I think, to really get the best out of um out of the team, um, as they are now fully entering the the generational um change transformation, and that's of course always um the the most difficult time for for a team. And um let's hope they don't end up like Germany completely breaking down um or yeah, more like Spain. I mean they they went through a complete um complete change um over from from 20 um from 2010 when they uh when they won the World Cup um till uh till now and very successfully they they didn't uh completely break down. Um they were able to hold um to hold the quality to a certain degree at least. And um and I think that this is going gonna be very, very difficult for Belgium. So we probably have to wait a couple of years um to see uh a similar Belgium Belgium performance. But lastly, Belgium really showed what what Morocco yesterday didn't show, and Belgium believed that they could win this game. And um and they showed they threw some punches, didn't they? Exactly.

SPEAKER_02 12:43

They turned up, they threw some punches and they tested Spain in a way which we just didn't see yesterday with Morocco and France. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_03 12:51

And I also Paul, I also think uh because it's sort of flown under the radar a little bit, the fact that Tielemans in the last minute didn't make the starting lineup and didn't do the warm-up was a massive blow for them because Tielemans has always been a big I've always been a big fan of his um when through his Leicester days and through his Aston Villa days and through the national team. And he is a quiet, strong influence that complements De Brun and some of the other midfield players. And when suddenly in you know a massive quarterfinal game like this, he's not he can't play, um, that's gonna take uh you know a little bit of wind out the sails of Belgium as they prepared and they stepped onto the field to play Spain today. Yeah, exactly.

SPEAKER_00 13:36

And not not sorry sorry, not not only um not only Tielemans, but also Onana as well. So I think that there were um some a mix of unfortunate circumstances um under which Belgium still still did um did better than than um everybody, I think, in the end expected.

SPEAKER_02 13:51

Yeah, just a word on Tielemans. I I think um he has been key for for Belgium, as you say, Declan. I mean he's kind of quiet uh assurance and um he's just one of those guys that just just drives that quietly drives the team forward. I think he's a key player for uh for um for Belgium um undoubtedly. Big day tomorrow, of course. Um let's uh let's see what happens, Declan. Are you looking forward to to the game or are you getting some sweaty palms?

SPEAKER_03 14:16

No, I'm not getting sweaty palms, and in fact, um uh 23 and a half hours before uh the game commences in Miami tomorrow, I'm already lathering on the Suntan lotion, the sunblock lotion, because uh little ginger hairy, freckled people like me don't do very well in the direct sunlight, and I have a funny feeling I'm gonna have no protection with regards to shade. Uh, very much looking forward to it. And um, like I said on the uh earlier podcast today with Oyvan Klausund, my uh good friend from Norway, who seemed quite confident Norway were gonna win. I think there is an air of inevitability that uh although it will be a tough game, England will come through and we'll be waiting anxiously tomorrow night to see who wins in Kansas between Switzerland and Argentina.

SPEAKER_02 15:03

Can I just apologise to all listeners um uh of sensitive temperament and disposition? Of course, uh yesterday, towards the end of the podcast, Declan Link started telling us about his role play tendencies, and then just towards the end of today's podcast, uh we moved into um sort of uh confessional descriptions of him lathering himself uh up, which of course moves the podcast into the kind of X-rated territory that we were we were hoping to avoid. But you know, we are we are where we are, so uh yeah, if you are of sensitive disposition, I can only apologize on behalf of myself and um and and Paul and uh yeah, Declan. Uh let's just look at the small print of the um of the broadcasting notes and uh and agreement so we don't um you know we don't uh we don't switch off the young uns, if you like. Um Paul Declan, uh always great to hear you disagreeing and uh needling each other. It's what one of the things, one of the reasons that I do this. It sort of warms my uh my little heart and uh look forward to speaking to you both tomorrow.

SPEAKER_00 16:10

Me too, absolutely. Thanks, John. Best of luck to England.

SPEAKER_03 16:13

Yeah, I was gonna say it's it's funny actually, because if you notice, PST, John has sort of left it that he can't lose tomorrow. He wants England to win. He sort of sat on the fence and said they will win, but he's also left the door open for Norway. So as usual, I'll I'll be clear.

SPEAKER_02 16:28

I I think England will will make it through. But actually, if I'm if I'm looking objectively at um at the the the World Cup quarters, I mean the the reason I would really like England to win is because I think an England-Argentina semi-final, which of course there's a lot of water to flow under that bridge uh for that to happen, but an England-Argentina semi-final would be an absolute banger, as they say. But I think um I love how this Norway side has played through the World Cup, how they've played, how they've maximised their potential, how they've um they've they've gone through everything with a with a smile on their on their face. So I think it's good for football if Norway um pushed through and and an amazing story for the Norwegian nation and for smaller nations everywhere. So I'll I'll be I'll be happy if Norway win, but equally, um, you know, uh it's also no bad thing if um if England make it through as well. But by this stage of the equation, I'm I'm well enough divorced from from uh from England in terms of what I what I sort of hope and dream might might happen to be able to sort of look from above in a in a slightly more sort of critical objective.

SPEAKER_03 17:36

Can I can I give you can I give you some uh career advice, John? If your if your stellar journalistic career ever goes pear-shaped and it goes down the toilet, you should apply to the British Foreign Office to become a diplomat?

SPEAKER_02 17:49

Uh well, how do you know that um that I'm not already part of the uh of of the diplomatic service, just in uh in perhaps a a less advertised, you know, a less public department?

SPEAKER_03 18:01

So what you're saying is you're really undercover. Is that what you're saying?

SPEAKER_02 18:05

Look, yeah, I I'm clearly not. Uh but uh but but people have made that mistake before. But uh no, I'm definitely I'm I I I've met some spies in the past, and I'm definitely uh I mean I I guess you know there are aspects of me that could do that, but I'm definitely not somebody who's gonna work unquestioningly for king and country. And I think uh Her Majesty's His Majesty's government can smell that on me and my loft. But uh but let's let's let's um let's say farewell at this point before we before I continue digging holes for myself and um yeah, look forward to talking tomorrow.

SPEAKER_03 18:39

Yeah, roll on tomorrow, come on England.