Amelia Island / Nassau County, Florida Real Estate Market Buzz

Episode 4: What Changed & What’s Coming in 2026

• Joanne Patience, Realtor, Iron Valley Real Estate North Florida • Season 1 • Episode 4

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 In this extended deep-dive episode, I break down the October 2025 Single-Family Housing Market Report for Nassau County, Florida and reveal what the numbers really mean for buyers, sellers, investors, and anyone planning a move in 2026. 

We explore the market across Fernandina Beach, Amelia Island, Yulee, Callahan, and Hilliard, using the latest MLS data to explain the trends behind the shifts. 

In this episode, you’ll learn: 

📉 How the market transitioned from September to October and why the month-over-month dip is completely normal. 

🏡 Why sales are up 34.8% year-over-year a strong sign of rising buyer demand despite seasonal cooling. 

📊 What the pricing divergence means Median prices softened, but average prices climbed, revealing a split between the mid-range and luxury sectors. 

💰 Why cash buyers surged to 41.7% of all sales and what this says about relocators, investors, and confidence in the local market. 

📦 Inventory growth & the approach to a balanced market with 4.9 months of supply, Nassau County is the closest it has been to neutral since 2020. 

📈 Mortgage rate trends Rates dipped to 6.17% on October 23rd, and forecasters expect low 6% to high 5% ranges into 2026. 

🌎 Economic forces shaping our housing market Inflation, job growth, GDP stability, construction costs, and Florida’s insurance landscape all play a major role. 

🔮 2026 Forecast What to expect in the year ahead: moderate price growth, strong relocation activity, and increased competition when rates fall. 

🎯 Strategic guidance for:  

  • Sellers who want top dollar in a more selective market 
  • Buyers who finally have more options and negotiation room 
  • Relocators seeking coastal living with affordability 
  • Investors looking for long-term value in a stable market 
  •  Buyers considering new construction vs. resale 


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Joanne Patience, Realtor, Iron Valley Real Estate North Florida
904-588-2673
FLNassauHomes@gmail.com
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Sources: Florida Association of Realtors & Amelia Island Nassau County Association of Realtors

Welcome back to Amelia Island Real Estate. Today. I'm Joanne Patience with Iron Valley Real Estate, North Florida, and part of the Florida Georgia Connection team. Each month we dig into what's really happening in Nassau County's housing market from Amelia Island in Fernandina Beach to Yulee, Callahan, and Hilliard, and what it means for you, whether you're buying, selling, or planning ahead. Today's episode takes us through the latest numbers for July, August and September for 2025 plus a brand new update. Mortgage rates just dip to an average of 6.17% as of October 23rd. So what does that really mean for you? Let's find out. Let's rewind to Midsummer. In July, we had 131 home sales, a medium price of about $499,000 in roughly 5.3 months of inventory. This is what we call Imbalanced Market In August, activity dipped only 104 closings, but prices jumped to about $567,000 as higher end homes and new builds led the way. Then came September and momentum returned Sales climb to 140 homes closed. The medium sale price landed around $540,000 and inventory edge down slightly to 4.9 months. The combination tells us buyers are still active, but they're being thoughtful, comparing their options, evaluating pricing, and moving when the right fit appears. September marked a turning point. Not overheated, not stalling. Just a steady, confident rhythm. Now, here's the headline that just dropped on October 23rd. The average 30 year fixed mortgage rate was reported at 6.17%, the lowest we've seen in months. Why does this matter? Because a small rate change can have a big ripple effect on a $400,000 mortgage. That difference can mean saving$150 to $200 a month compared to rates earlier this summer. Lower monthly costs often bring more buyers back into the market, and when that happens, sellers see stronger activity too. It's not a huge drop, but it's the first solid sign of relief we've had in a while. Will rates keep going down?. Experts like Freddie Mac and Realtor.com say they might hover in the low 6% range for the rest of the year. That's not dramatic, but it's steady and steady helps the confidence return. So even though we're not back to 4% days, the feeling in the market has shifted. Buyers are starting to lean forward again. What the numbers are really saying. Let's step back and look at the pattern we've seen since July. Sales are climbing again from 104 in August to 140 in September. Prices are holding steady in the low to mid five hundreds. Inventory remains balanced as just under five months. Homes are taking longer to sell, around 68 days to go under contract. But they are selling altogether. That tells us our market is stable and sustainable. We're not racing, but we're moving forward, which is exactly what a healthy market looks like. Zooming out the bigger picture. Across Florida, the story looks different depending on where you are. The Florida Realtor's statewide report shows overall sales down a few percent from last year in many areas are seeing slower appreciation. Some communities, especially those near new construction developments, are facing more competition and longer market times. As builders release new homes with incentives here in Nassau County, we're feeling some of that same pressure, particularly in neighborhoods close to new developments. But overall, we're seeing balance prices adjusting slightly where needed, and stronger demand in established communities that offer ready to move in homes. So rather than saying prices are higher or lower than before, it's more accurate to say the market is settling into its true value. It's becoming realistic again, and that's healthy. Should you sell, buy or rent right now? Now let's talk about what all this means for you. If you're considering selling, the market still favors well priced listings. Buyers are active and competition remains manageable. Listing this fall before the typical holiday slowdown can help your home stand out. Now if you're a buyer, rates are now in the lower sixes, which opens the door for more affordable payments. You can shop without pressure and often negotiate things like closing costs help or a flexible close date. If you're renting, it's worth running the numbers. In many parts of Nassau County, monthly rent is equal to or even higher than a mortgage payment on a moderately priced home. If you plan to stay local for a while, owning builds stability and equity over time. Whether your move is next month, next spring, or next year, this is the time to plan. The earlier you plan and prepare, the more options you'll have. What keeps our market strong isn't just numbers, it's the lifestyle and sense of community here. From our coastal parks and waterways to our welcoming neighborhoods and local events, this area continues to attract people looking for connections, space, and a calmer rhythm of life. That demand helps support ready housing values year after year. So let's recap. September brought more sales and steady prices. Inventory stayed balanced. Mortgage rates just dipped as of October 23rd to 6.17%, giving buyers new breathing room. This is a moment to act thoughtfully, not hastily. If you're even thinking about buying or selling, now's the time to talk strategy. You can call or text me at (904) 588-2673 or email FLNassauhomes@gmail.com. Whether you're planning for next month, next season, or next year, I'll help you make smart moves that align with your goals. I'm Joanne Patience, your coastal lifestyle advisor with Iron Valley Real Estate, North Florida, the Florida Georgia Connection Team. Thanks for listening to the Amelia Island Real Estate today. Until next time, stay informed. Stay inspired, and I'll see you around our beautiful coastal community.