Amelia Island / Nassau County, Florida Real Estate Market Buzz

Episode 5 - Nassau County Market Deep Dive_ June to Now + What to Expect in 2026

• Joanne Patience, Realtor, Iron Valley Real Estate North Florida • Season 1 • Episode 5

Share episode

 “Hello and welcome back to the Amelia Island Nassau County Real Estate Market Buzz. I’m Joanne Patience with Iron Valley Real Estate North Florida — your Coastal Lifestyle Advisor. 

Today’s episode is a big one. We’re going to compare the Nassau County single-family housing market from June all the way through the most recent numbers we have today — November 2025. 

And I’m going to do this in a way that helps you understand the story behind the numbers — not just the stats. 

Here’s what we’ll cover: 

  • A month-by-month market timeline from June through November
  • What’s changing with prices, sales, inventory, and buyer behavior
  • What the data says about seller leverage vs buyer leverage
  • The role mortgage rates are playing right now
  • What leading forecasters are saying about 2026
  • And finally: should you buy, should you sell, should you move to Nassau County, and what opportunities are showing up as the market stabilizes.



 

Email For a FREE Guide of this episode-click here

Joanne Patience, Realtor, Iron Valley Real Estate North Florida
904-588-2673
FLNassauHomes@gmail.com
Website

Follow On Social Media:
Instagram
Facebook
YouTube

Sources: Florida Association of Realtors & Amelia Island Nassau County Association of Realtors

Episode 4 - Nassau County Market Deep Dive: June to Now + What to Expect in 2026

[00:00:00] 

Introduction to Nassau County Market Analysis

Hello, and welcome back to the Amelia Island, Nassau County Real Estate Market Buzz. I'm Joanne Patience with Iron Valley Real Estate North Florida, your coastal lifestyle advisor. Today's episode is a big one. We're going to compare the Nassau County single family housing market from June all the way through the most recent numbers we have today through November, 2025.

Episode Overview and Topics Covered

And I am going to do this in a way that helps you understand the story behind the numbers, not just the stats. Here's what we'll cover: A month by month market timeline from June through November. What's changing with prices, sales, inventory, and buyer behavior. What the data says about seller leverage versus buyer leverage.

The role [00:01:00] mortgage rates are playing right now. What leading forecasters are saying about 2026? And finally, should you buy? Should you sell? Should you move to Nassau County? And what opportunities are showing up as the market stabilizes? All right, let's jump in.

November 2025 Market Snapshot

Let's start where we are right now. November, 2025 shows a market that is steady, more balanced than prior years and still attractive, but buyers are taking more time and being more selective. Here are the highlights. Close Sales, 79 Homes, medium Sale Price, $515,000. Average sale price, $748,721. Inventory 558 homes. Month

supply 4.7 [00:02:00] months. Medium time to contract 68 days. Medium time to sale 111 days. Cash deals 30 sales, which is 38% of all sales. Now, November is almost always more seasonal. We're heading into the holidays. Fewer people want to move and buyers can be pickier. So instead of reacting to November alone, the real value is comparing the trend line Since June.

Understanding Market Statistics

Before we go month by month, here's a simple way to understand market stats. Close sales tell us demand that actually made it to the finish line. Pending sales are the next wave they hit at what closings might look like in the near future. Inventory plus month supply tell us who has leverage buyers or sellers.

Days to [00:03:00] contract and days to sale. Show urgency or hesitation. Cash share often signals investor activity and relocation. Strength, medium versus average price helps us see whether higher end homes are driving the market. Now let's walk the timeline.

Month-by-Month Market Analysis: June Through November

June was one of the most active months in this period. Close sales 151 homes, medium price $517,500. Average price $618,535. Dollar volume 93.4 million. New listings 209. New pendings 137. Inventory 645. Month supply 5.6. Days to contract 51. Cash percentage, 29.1%. [00:04:00] June is important because it sets our baseline strong closings, a lot of homes available and a month's supply level that lean to more neutral buyer friendly than most people expected.

So June was active but not frantic.

July cools slightly from June close. Sales 131. Median price $499,000. Average price $659,869. Volume 86.4 million. New listings 177. New pendings 140. Inventory 607. Month supply 5.3. Days to contract. 56. Cash percentage 35.9%. July is where we start to see something important. Medium price dipped, but average price rose, meaning the mix of homes, selling changed, [00:05:00] cash share increased.

That's a confidence marker.

August did this: close sales 104. Median price $567,500. Notice the jump average price $701,290. Volume $72.9 million. New listings 162. New pendings 123. Inventory 586. Month supply 5.1. Days to contract 52. Cash percentage 34.6%. This is a great example of why medium price can jump, even if the market isn't suddenly worth more.

It can mean higher priced homes made up a bigger slice of what sold that month.

September is where demand popped again. Close sales 140. Medium price $540,000. Average price [00:06:00] $675,586. Dollar volume $94.6 million. New listings 173. New pendings 114. Inventory 570. Month supply 4.7 Days of contract 68. Cash presented percentage 32.1% percent of original list price received 96%. This is a seller friendly signal.

Months supply fell under five months. Sellers capture strong list price performance, but days to contract rose, meaning buyers were more careful than in 2021 and 2022.

October close sales 120. Median price $515,000. Average price $690,925. Volume $82.9 million. New listings 170. New pendings 98. Inventory [00:07:00] 583. Month supply 4.9. Per days to contract 74. Days to sale 118. Cash percentage 41.7% percent of original list price received 95.2%. October is one of the most telling months.

Sales cooled -seasonally normal. Cash jumped sharply. That's huge. Days to contract increased buyers slowed down, but still, but sellers still got around 95% of the original list price.

And now November close sale 79. Median price $515,000. Average price $748,721. Volume $59.1 million. New listings 138. New pendings 108. Inventory 558. Month supply 4.7. Days to contract 68. Days to sale 111. [00:08:00] Cash percentage 38%. Percentage of original list price received 95%, so notice medium stayed flat from October average.

Price moved up again suggesting higher end closings. Months supply improved slightly. And pendings increased versus October, which may hint at a steadier December, January pipeline.

Key Market Trends and Insights

Here's the story. Now that we've done the timeline, here are the big themes. From June to now. Volume is seasonal, but not weak. June and September were strong Closing months. November is seasonal. That's expected. What matter is the market is functioning normally. Again, prices aren't crashing. They are rotating.

Medium price moved around because the mix of homes selling changed month to [00:09:00] month. Average price stayed strong and climbed into November. Buyers are slower and smarter. Days to contract rose into the high sixties and seventies in the fall. That tells us buyers are negotiating more, inspecting more, comparing more.

Cash is a major force. We saw cash rise sharply in October and stay high in November. Cash points to Relocators bringing equity, retirees, investors and second home buyers. Inventory is no longer nothing on the shelf. Inventory climbed from June 645 down into the high five hundreds by the fall. Month supply moved from 5.6 in June down to 4.7 in November.

That's closer to the balance that we have seen in years. 

Okay.

2026 Mortgage Rate Forecasts

Now let's talk 2026. The part everybody cares about mortgage rates in 2026. Forecasts vary, but the theme is not a return to [00:10:00] 3% and also not a spike back to 8%. Many forecasts expect rates to stay in the low 6% range with potential easing. Later in 2026, Fannie Mae has projected rates ending in 2026, around 5.9%.

MBA has referenced scenarios around 6.4%. NAR- National Association Realtors has discussed a path toward roughly 6% in 2026. S&P Global has published a more optimistic view with averages in the mid fives range. What's that mean locally? If rates drift down, even a little more buyers reenter and competition increases that often puts upward pressure on prices,

even if modest. National Association of Realtors has discussed a potential rebound in 2026 existing home sales volume. Locally, that would show up as:. As [00:11:00] more showings, faster decisions, and less negotiation leverage for buyers compared to now. New construction in 2026- nationally, some outlooks suggest a new construction may cool relative to recent years, and builders may keep using incentives where affordability is tight locally that aligns with what buyers are already seeing.

Rate buy downs, closing cost help and more. Move and ready inventory homes.

Practical Guidance: Should You Buy or Sell?

Let's land this plane with practical guidance. Should you buy, sell, move to Nassau County. If you are a seller, you can still do very well, but strategy matters more than in 2022 because buyers are slower. You need pricing that matches the current comps. Strong presentation and fewer buyer objections.

Repair, clean inspection, clear insurance details. The good news is sellers are still capturing about 95% of the original list price in the fall months, and [00:12:00] that's healthy. If you are a buyer, you have something that has been missing for years. Selection time, and negotiation space. If rates fall in 2026, you may face more competition, so the question isn't, shouldn't, should I wait?

It's: if the right home appears, do I want less competition or more competition? If you're relocating, Nassau County remains one of the most attractive corridors in northeast Florida. Coastal lifestyle, proximity to Jacksonville jobs, strong community growth, beaches, boating, golf, and a range of housing from established neighborhoods to new construction.

And we're seeing that in the data shown through higher average prices and strong cash participation.

Conclusion and Contact Information

If you want a professional breakdown for your neighborhood or you want me to map out a buying or selling plan for early 2026, I'd love to help. Send me a message and I'll share the full June to [00:13:00] November comparison, neighborhood specific insights and a strategy customized to your timing and goals.

Thanks for listening to the Amelia Island, Nassau County Real Estate Market Buzz. Joanne, patience, your coastal lifestyle advisor, and I'll see you next episode.