The 3 Guys Podcast
Reuel Sample, Nick Craig and Ben Schachtman are 3 guys discussing the events of the week that impact Wilmington NC and around the country.
The 3 Guys Podcast
Episode 5:Government Open, Immigration, and Local Races
The episode begins with the hosts diving into the recent federal government shutdown, focusing on how Democrats overplayed their strategy and ultimately accepted a deal that achieved little beyond a future vote on health care subsidies. They examine how Democrats tried to use the shutdown to highlight rising health insurance costs, but point out the potential risk in banking on voter memory a year down the line. The hosts also note polling indicating Republicans managed, for once, to avoid being the sole party blamed for the shutdown, as economic anxieties, SNAP program impacts, and airport delays wore down public support for the Democratic approach.
The conversation then turns to recent immigration enforcement actions in North Carolina, such as major raids in Charlotte and Raleigh. The hosts clarify the difference between Customs and Border Protection and ICE, exploring the left’s internal conflicts over handling illegal immigration. The discussion covers local activist responses, including calls to abolish ICE, and touches on the widespread public support for deporting violent felons as well as many other undocumented immigrants. The hosts argue that after decades of inconsistent enforcement, tougher federal action has created major political backlash—leaving Democrats squeezed between advocacy groups and a voting public that overwhelmingly favors stricter immigration control.
Finally, attention shifts to local North Carolina politics, especially Republican Representative Ted Davis’s decision not to seek reelection in House District 20. The hosts discuss why Davis is likely to serve out his final term, preferring not to hand a potential successor an “incumbent” advantage should he resign early. They also talk about the strong GOP positioning in the district, despite Democratic ambitions. Senator Michael Lee’s increasingly secure status in District 7 comes up as well, with consensus that issues like school funding and cost of living will dominate upcoming races. Throughout, the hosts draw clear connections between national events—like the shutdown and immigration debates—and the electoral battles shaping greater Wilmington and New Hanover County.
Welcome to the Three Guys podcast. I'm Reuel Sample as always, joined by Ben Schachtman and Nick Craig. Hey gentlemen, how are you all doing today? Doing good. Yeah, good, good. I, uh, I am starting my new, uh. What is it? The, uh, the the low carb diet. I got Atkins. Atkins diet. I got to get that. Congratulations. You got to get some poundage off. Good luck. Yeah, yeah, it was, uh.
Nick Craig:It's probably the worst possible time of year to start.
Reuel Sample:I know we've got a lot of Thanksgiving.
Ben Schachtman:Gantlet of carbohydrates is upon us.
Reuel Sample:So? So if you're seeing less of me, it's working. If you're seeing more of me, I've ultimately caved. So, uh, we've got a lot going on, gentlemen, and it's, uh, there's there's no way we can. We can cover all of them. So we're going to start real quickly with the government shutdown. Ben, the Dems caved.
Ben Schachtman:Yes.
Reuel Sample:What was their what was their their endgame in this whole thing.
Ben Schachtman:As we were saying off mikes, it felt like the winds, those governor winds, those local municipal winds gave them retroactively a sense of purpose. Like we were building momentum and we got all these wins and now we can take this deal, which I agree with the Democrats who who, you know, crossed the line. I do think that's as good of a deal as they were going to get. But again, I still feel like the messaging was not there in the beginning. I feel like the best they were able to do was to say, well, now we've brought it to people's attention about these health care subsidies, hoping that that will be an election issue a year from now. Uh, I mean, the Washington Post, uh, their Post Reports podcast was talking about this, and they were basically saying that is a hell of a gamble.
Reuel Sample:To.
Ben Schachtman:Think that anything will still be on the radar in a year in our political and our political speed. So all of that to say, you know, I they were never has been very clear about this. They were never going to get any more than they got from the Republicans.
Reuel Sample:They got a vote on the health care. That's it.
Nick Craig:Well, presumably. Presumably.
Ben Schachtman:But I mean, she could just lift the football and then there. What is there recourse now?
Reuel Sample:Nick. The Republicans were surprisingly strong, this whole thing. Mike Johnson, who the far right never liked Mike. Mike Johnson but he has held firm. Same thing with with Senator Thune. And they they basically said bring it on.
Nick Craig:Yeah, I mean, I think both of them held strong. But at the same time, I don't think it's a surprise when you look at who's, you know, calling the shots in the Oval Office. I mean, I would imagine that leading up to, you know, maybe early September through the month of September leading up to the shutdown, Trump and not even even Trump, maybe Trump's people had Thune and Johnson in the Oval Office or somewhere in the West Wing and made it abundantly clear this is the path we're going to go down once we start. We're not we're not moving on the issue. One of the things that I find interesting, Ben and rule is Trump. Before the government shut down in that last meeting he had with Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer told them that he was willing to discuss health care subsidies. He told them that very early on, which again, discussing it doesn't mean you get what you want. But he was open to it. And they kind of, I guess, brushed it off as he's not serious. But I made this point on the on my podcast last week. I would not be surprised if this administration tries to put forth some sort of additional subsidy program.
Reuel Sample:Aren't they trying to do something like that?
Nick Craig:They don't have a choice. I mean, just looking at my own personal health insurance. It's tripling heading into next year. I will not have health insurance going into 2026. And I would imagine that folks within the administration, those that have their ear very close to the ground as to what's going on, know that for the Republicans, even though Trump's not on a ballot in 2026, that for Republicans going into the midterms, If you have tens of millions of people that now have no health insurance or are their budget is busted by health insurance, it's going to screw the Republicans in 2026. So something presumably will get done. I don't think that anybody in this administration wants to be walking around with health care subsidies on their neck is the issue. So it's going to be interesting to see.
Ben Schachtman:I do think there was an irony here, and I think to some extent, the mainstream media did pick up the story of the subsidies and what that would mean for people, what it would mean for small businesses. Geez. Um, you know, which tend to attack, right, a little bit because you're, you know, you're very concerned with the economy and all of this is, you know, the Democrats drawing attention to the gaping wound in their signature health care policy, which we have, just which both parties have just kind of whistled and walked past for most of my life as a reporter. So, you know, it would be great if repeal and replace came back and there was some meaningful attempt to just plug or reimagine this. Forget plug the holes, reimagine this in a way that works both for small businesses who are getting killed and for individuals who are just going to opt out. They're just going to say, I'm just especially younger Americans are just going to say, I'm going to roll the dice and hope I don't get sick because I know, because that's what I did.
Reuel Sample:You know, Carolina Carolina Journal News poll that came out last week was that, uh, the blame for the shutdown was spread equally.
Nick Craig:Oh, well, it wasn't even spread equally. It was a little bit higher number. I think it was like maybe 58 to mid 40s for, for blame Democrats over Republicans. And I thought that was interesting because the rest of the poll was terrible for Republicans. And Trump got killed in the approval. The economy's the issue. Generic legislative ballots. Terrible for Republicans. It was a bad overall poll pole for for the GOP. Yet that was probably the only good thing that you could look at as, oh, look at this. Um, and so to the point, that's something we talked about, I think, before the government shutdown was, what's the messaging like going to look on this? And it would appear that Republicans did a better job than ever of not being the sole party of owning a government shutdown.
Reuel Sample:When you had when you had ABC news calling out the Democrats, saying, this is this is really on you, isn't it?
Ben Schachtman:Yeah, it was an interesting mix of real politic and optics. Right. Because you had the whole point of the shutdown was because initially was because the Democrats were getting so much pressure to fight to do something, to look like a minority party in opposition and not just kind of roll over and, okay, for optics, that's that's one reason to do stuff. But once they started being real consequences, especially snap and then which hit, you know, lower income folks and then flight delays, which hit the middle class. Then people are like, oh, this is real. There are real problems. What are you actually going to get out of this? And then the media started digging into the odds that they would get anything other than maybe a handshake deal on a vote. And it just it was very hard for anyone to make the case that the real human suffering of of poor people and the deep inconvenience of holiday season travelers was going to be worth this. And I think at that point, the public sentiment, I think you could see it in the polls. It shifted away from the Democrats saying like, okay, you know, three weeks ago we felt good about this, but now what are we doing?
Reuel Sample:Well, the sun is now rising back in the east and setting in the west. The government is now open.
Nick Craig:So can I ask Ben a question before we move on from Ben? You've got an audience that probably skews a little bit further center, a little bit left of center. Did you in in your reporting on the government shutdown, were Democrats who were of the mindset is, we want you to fight like we get you're not in the minority. We get. You can't lead. But damn it, do something! Did you hear any response from them that they were pissed off or frustrated that this went on for three days? And you walked out with a hey, champ. Yeah, we'll, uh, we'll. Yeah, we'll give you that vote. All right? We'll, uh, we'll see you in a couple of weeks.
Ben Schachtman:I heard, you know, from, you know, from people whose asses are on the line in the coming elections. I heard a very rosy spin on this, which was, you know, we made health care an issue again, which is, I think, the best you could do for that. I heard from the liberal progressive left that this was a betrayal. People were very upset. I don't know what their preferred endgame would have been, but they felt like in for a penny, in for a pound. And then I think there were a lot of just, you know, moderate left Democrats who just kind of felt confused and frustrated by all of this. And the snap thing really pulled. I mean, these are bleeding heart liberals. The snap thing really, I mean, affected them. I'm not being cynical. Like it really affected them. You know, you started seeing stories of what that was going to mean for low income families. And they were like this. This can't be. I mean, they didn't all of a sudden become Republicans or love Trump, but like, this can't be the way that the resistance goes forward because this is not worth it. Yeah.
Reuel Sample:All right. Uh, also in the news, we had immigration raids up in Charlotte and in Raleigh. Uh, Ben, I've got a specific question for you, but, uh, Nick, 81 people rounded up over the weekend.
Nick Craig:Up to 131, 131.
Reuel Sample:Okay. Was that completely unexpected for the folks of Charlotte and Raleigh?
Nick Craig:Um, the Raleigh folks? Yes. Uh, the Charlotte. The rumor mill started flying mid to late last week. Um, and I'm going to stress this because I think it's important. I'm seeing a lot of social media chatter that ice is is out and about. This is not an Ice operation in Charlotte. This is a Customs and Border Protection that Ice and CBP are two completely separate entities. And there's a lot of blurring of the lines that it's all the same thing. I can't speak exactly to who is it who's what's going on in Raleigh? But I believe it's also CBP. Um, they had finished up some ops in Chicago that have been going on for the last couple of months, and the rumor was that this was kind of a pit stop on the way to some, to some southern states. So, um, they CBP rolled into Charlotte over the weekend, 81 arrests on, uh, Saturday, another 50, 60 or so on Sunday. We're not sure exactly how long they're going to be there. Um, but it is interesting to watch the I'll call it the the calamity that takes place with this, the, the guy in the frog costume, uh, banging the pot in front of the an Ice or a CBP facility on Tyvola Road in Charlotte. Um, you know, f this f you f ice. Oh, my God, you're a Hispanic. Pointing to a to a border agent or CBP member who presumably looks Hispanic, even though they're all covered up with their stuff on. How could you do this? You're. You're betraying your own people. Very interesting reaction to, um, those those raids taking place in Charlotte and Ben.
Reuel Sample:That's part of the question I want to ask you is that you are obviously on the left, and this just seems like an issue that the Democrats keep tripping over is that we we arrested several violent felons over the weekend.
Ben Schachtman:So, yeah, I mean, my personal politics are on the left, and I think most of the media is a little bit to the left on this issue. And as Nick has pointed out, that's not really a reflection of how the American electorate feels about this. Um, I think there's a very reasonable concerns, you know, ice masking, for example, the temporary use of race, uh, to stop people. I mean, those are slippery slopes. They are. Right. Do I believe that these are the brownshirts? No. But is do I have serious constitutional concerns about them as an American? Yeah I do. Um, things like, uh, some of the data that's starting to come out of Chicago. That shows the very small percentage of the people who were arrested were actually violent felons. Now, should those violent felons be put in a trebuchet and shot back over the border? I'm fine with that. Right. And I think most first. Yeah. And I think that's where most Americans are fine with this. You know, they would like them to have due process, but if you push them on it, if they're violent criminals and they're here legally, you're not going to find a majority of Americans who are upset about that. I think it is a combination of, you know, more principled, centrist people who are upset about the constitutional issues. And then folks on the left who feel like Trump is using, um, federal immigration authorities to essentially troll Democrat run cities. And he's said things to that effect, which makes it harder to say he's not.
Reuel Sample:Trump trolling the Democrats. It just doesn't.
Ben Schachtman:It's one thing when Trump puts, you know, an AI video of him shitting on people from a fighter plane, it's a different thing when he's using the federal apparatus to do it. Like, those are legitimate concerns about the authoritarian behavior of the administration.
Reuel Sample:These are.
Ben Schachtman:One thing, but that has become that has swallowed all nuance, right? So now we are, you know, on the left, I see people pushed into the position of absolutely negating the function of Border Patrol and Ice and assuming that any immigration and this is where the Biden administration went under, right, is just rejecting any immigration action. Right. Defending all immigrants, no matter how illegal, no matter how violent. And that's where things have got very messy. It's going to take some nuance for the Democrats to make a case there. They haven't found their way.
Reuel Sample:The interesting thing is, is that the definition of the folks that they are rounding up are illegals is that by their very presence here, they fall on the criminal scale. And where does it stop? Nick, where do we where do we draw the line?
Nick Craig:Well, and I think that's part of the messaging issue, looking at some of the immediate commentary from from Democrat Governor Josh Stein and former Democrat governor now turned Democrat Senate candidate Senate candidate Roy Cooper. The word that they will continue to use is, you know, these these are these people are not criminals. They'll say that that Ice or CBP are rounding up non criminals. And I think the immediate gut reaction on the right is, well, if you willfully crossed into the United States outside of illegal entry point, of which there are plenty, especially if you're coming up from from the southern border, then by definition you are a criminal, regardless of whether you're shoplifting or assaulting somebody or whatever. You are a criminal. And there was a very there's an interesting, uh, Harvard Harris poll that's out over the last couple of days, to Ben's point on dangerous, violent criminals. It's like 79% of people across all political spectrum say we want those people out. 69% of Democrats. So, I mean, it's not even not even close to a to to a winning issue on that 79% of moderates and you know, mid 80s for uh, for independents I should say mid 80s for Republicans. The numbers go down however, a little bit when you ask, should everybody who is illegally in the country be deported, you would imagine those numbers are stronger amongst Republicans, weaker amongst Democrats. Independents are the there's two different polls from them. One is a couple points above 50%, the other is a couple points below. But even like mid 30s percent of Democrats say, yeah, if you're illegally in the country, true illegal alien, a true illegal migrant, we don't we don't want you here. So and Ben mentioned before, this was one of the big issues that likely sank the Biden administration leading into 2024. The fact that we're still chanting that Ice needs to be abolished, border patrol needs to be abolished. That's what was going on in Charlotte over the weekend. I don't know. Obviously, those folks are not reading political polls. I don't think that's a that's a surprise. But, um, that is not I can guarantee you that is not a winning political message under any circumstances.
Reuel Sample:Democrats are going to change their message on this.
Ben Schachtman:They haven't found their way to it. And I just think, look, we have had a wink and nod system for immigration for so long. And there are so many industries, the service industry, agricultural industries that rely on this. And yes, there are visas. There are people who abuse those visas. There are people who live very happy lives coming here working for the prescribed period and going back to Mexico. Not everyone, but we have we have bolstered our birthrate and our workforce by this quasi symbiotic relationship with Mexico and Latin America, and both administrations have looked the other way for a long time. So one is just it's a little bit of whiplash to go from repeated administration administrations, Republican and Democrat, that did nothing right or did very little to someone doing anything right. So any change like that is going to be. Whoa. Right. But also, I think, you know, it has been very difficult for the Democrats to avoid the identity politics of the left wing of their party because we don't want to demonize people. Right. I'm not comfortable with the idea that we're going to have a permanent statute where the federal, the federal authorities can just stop you if you look foreign. That doesn't make me feel very as a Jew, it doesn't make me feel great. Right. So but, you know, again, to Nick's point, so many people agree we've got to do something about our immigration system. It does need to be reformed. It does not work the way it is. Um, how do we fix that? Up for debate. But I think, yeah, what you're seeing is identity politics pulling the Democrats to the left, where this is framed as racism instead of authoritarianism. And, you know, so much deferred maintenance for the immigration system that both emotionally. Any change shocks us and financially. The amount of money it's going to take to probably fix this thing is going to be unpalatable, at least for the center and to the right.
Nick Craig:And Ben kind of talked about how both you know, we've had Republican and Democrats back and forth. Let's look at just the last 3 or 4 years. You went from an administration that had no policy on immigration to the fact of like hundreds of thousands of people a month crossing the border to now CBP, Ice, maybe some some other federal agencies hosting immigration crackdowns in some of these major cities. I mean, you talk about, Ben, polar opposites in politics. It doesn't get any more polar opposite than that. Just a couple of years ago to what's going on in Charlotte and Raleigh today. From a purely optical standpoint, it's it's remarkable.
Ben Schachtman:And it was, you know, the Biden administration and the Obama administration, although they deported a ton of people, they did almost all of that within 100 miles of the Mexico border, which just means that it didn't become a political flashpoint in Democratic controlled cities. You know, it wasn't until people started shipping them to New York City that we saw that change. And I think, uh, that could play the Democrats advantage. Certainly going into the 2020 election, it has given them a boogeyman, if nothing else. Yes, because they've shifted from a border policing policy to a nationwide policing policy.
Reuel Sample:Ice coming to Wilmington anytime soon.
Nick Craig:Well, and this is the other thing. And Ben just wrote this in a, in a, in an article, Customs and Border Protection in Ice conduct operations. And during the Obama administration, the Biden administration, the first Trump administration. They conduct these operations all the time anyway. This is nothing new. Now, the large scale ones, that's that's that's new. Um, because you spoke to somebody, one in the Brunswick County Sheriff's Department.
Ben Schachtman:I talked to, um, yeah. Emily Flex at the Brunswick County Sheriff's Office, and there is no large scale operation there right now, according to them. Um, we talked to the Hanover County Sheriff's Office, and I asked, is there some kind of 287? That's the the federal law that lets you basically deputize local law enforcement and really do one of these large scale raids. And they said no. And I said, but in terms of Ice detainers, where they're basically holding someone a little bit longer than their bond would allow to give ice time to come. They said all day, every day, like 40 people on a rolling average of like 40 people.
Reuel Sample:And that was the issue with the Mecklenburg County sheriff, is that he was he was not holding folks in violation of state law.
Nick Craig:Yeah. Well and well, first, he wasn't holding them, then they changed the state law. He still wasn't holding them. They changed it again. He still wasn't holding them. And part of the reason that, you know, in a in a original press release, um, on, on Operation Charlotte's Web, which I by the way, I heard that the granddaughter of the of the author's very.
Reuel Sample:Very.
Nick Craig:Upset. Um, but DHS made the point in their, in their press release that there have been over 1400 Ice detainers not honored. It didn't say all in Mecklenburg County, but 1400 Ice detainers that have been ignored by local elected officials, which a sheriff is in all 100 counties across North Carolina. As an additional justification for sending some of these federal agents in.
Reuel Sample:And those Ice detainers were only issued from an arrest of a certain level of criminality. If I if.
Nick Craig:I mean, I'm pretty sure it's any I think it's if.
Ben Schachtman:You end up in the detention center, your name goes into the database and that gets crossed.
Nick Craig:If you get a speeding ticket, you're not going to have an Ice detainer. If you are, if you are booked mugshot and fingerprinted, you if you are legally in the country, could very likely have an Ice.
Ben Schachtman:I had a guy I worked with in kitchens and he got busted for partying at Wrightsville Beach, which has its own magistrate, right? Which means you can bond out there before they take you up to blue Clay road. So he never I mean, he he was a repeat offender, but he never got caught by the ice holes because he was always just, you know, he'd have a friend on speed dial. He'd get one call, he'd be like, get here with 100 bucks and get me out of here. Um, many people have taken advantage of that. Wrightsville Beach magistrate, by the way, because that means your photo doesn't go up on that New Hanover County website.
Nick Craig:Oh, yeah. That's a that's a fun one to troll.
Ben Schachtman:Fun one to troll.
Reuel Sample:I'll have to check it out. Yeah. So moving to that to local races and, um, we've got elections. I'm getting tired of elections, I don't know. They just keep coming around every year.
Nick Craig:You need to talk to.
Reuel Sample:Ben about this. Every year.
Nick Craig:You had a great line this week on elections, Ben. Yeah.
Ben Schachtman:Election cycle is over. Long live the election cycle.
Reuel Sample:I saw that.
Nick Craig:Yeah.
Reuel Sample:It's.
Nick Craig:It's it's it's no longer a cycle.
Ben Schachtman:It's it's actually this one started before the other one finished.
Reuel Sample:It did. Yeah it did.
Nick Craig:It's like a Venn diagram.
Ben Schachtman:It is. Yeah, it really is. All right, let's get.
Reuel Sample:Thank you. Kamala. Uh, Ted Davis yesterday announced, uh, out of the blue. Uh, he's going to retire.
Ben Schachtman:I don't know if I can say out of the blue.
Nick Craig:I can't say that either.
Ben Schachtman:I've been seeing retirement written on that man's.
Reuel Sample:Well, yes.
Ben Schachtman:The bags under his eyes have said retire for a long time.
Reuel Sample:Well, you you folks are much, much more plugged in than I am. But he has announced that he's going to retire. He's not going to seek seek reelection next year.
Nick Craig:Correct. So he'll serve out the remaining of his biennium, which goes through, I guess, December 31st of 2026. But he will not be seeking reelection for district 20. So you will not see his name on a ballot in November of next year.
Reuel Sample:So don't vote for him.
Nick Craig:I mean, I guess you can write him in.
Ben Schachtman:But I do think a question for you guys. I thought this was interesting. You know, there's a there's a time honored tradition of Democratic and Republican state reps bowing out and giving someone a little leg boost so they can run a year, sometimes even six months, to run as a kind of a quasi incumbent. So they have some name recognition. They've shown up at events, they've been interviewed in papers as representative so-and-so. I mean, this happened to Ted Davis. Mhm.
Reuel Sample:That's how he got in. Yeah.
Ben Schachtman:Who uh, you know, years and years and years ago. And so there was much speculation that he would resign at just the right time to let Leon Pierce or ordain Scalise get boosted into there. The problem being that then you have to backfill the commission spot. Uh, why do you think he just decided to do it nice and clean and just go to the end of his term?
Nick Craig:I mean, I will I will note that I know Ted personally very well. I haven't spoken with him. My guess would be he wants to serve out a full, full remainder of his term and from a, from an to, to Ben's point about, you know, getting that leg up. If Dana's not, I guess we should mention that New Hanover County Commissioner Dane Scalise has announced he's running in that position. If Dane, uh, is not successful in running in district 20, he still gets to serve two additional years on the New Hanover County Commission. If he, you know, takes Ted's seat for a year, runs, loses. Now he's completely out of a position. You've got somebody else that was appointed by the county GOP. It can make it a very messy situation. Not that there's probably a strong likelihood of a Democrat upsetting in district 20, just based on the the math in that district. So that would be my gut reaction to it is Ted probably wants to serve out the remainder of his term. He's been in public office for almost 30 years, uh, on and off.
Ben Schachtman:Um, he does kind of get Scalise does kind of get to gamble with a complimentary House.
Nick Craig:Oh, absolutely.
Reuel Sample:It's 100% house, right? That's right, that's right. So, uh, Democrats looking at this as a possible pickup.
Ben Schachtman:I think so, I mean, they they tried really hard with John Berger, uh, a year ago. I have to imagine they'll try again as as Nick noted, the the math is, you know, you got 4 or 5 points.
Nick Craig:Yeah, I think it's it's either an R4 or R5.
Ben Schachtman:That you got to make up. Um, obviously they're, they're going to try for, you know, to capture some of that anti-Trump sentiment and ties close to that. But also, you know, I think I think the the key issues are got to be school funding, Affordability. Um, you know, I don't know how much I actually have more faith in the local party to put together a coherent, you know, here's what we're here's what you're voting for, not here's what you're voting against. Then I do the National Party right now, if I'm being honest with you.
Reuel Sample:Michael Lee, district seven running again.
Nick Craig:Yeah. Uh, you know, we saw what was, uh, David Hill that ran against him last time. That was expected to be a close race. It was a bloodbath for for for the Democrats. I mean, that is a district that is we've seen just over the last couple of years. I mean, Harper Peterson beat Michael Lee, then Michael beat Harper Peterson and has been in there. He's now risen to, uh, the Senate majority leader. Um, what was supposed to be a close race? I don't remember what the final was, Ben, but I feel like it was like 6 or 7 or maybe even eight points.
Ben Schachtman:It was not.
Nick Craig:Not close at all. Yeah. Um, and so I, we don't know who the Democrat challenger could be.
Reuel Sample:Nothing. Huh?
Ben Schachtman:No. I can't even wink and nod and say, I say, I don't know, because I really don't know.
Nick Craig:Yeah. I mean, it's gonna have to. I mean, the reality is for, for Democrats who are going to try and out to try and oust Mike Lee, which I'm not saying this because I'm a Republican. I'm saying it because he's now the second most important man in the North Carolina Senate is going to be incredibly hard. You cannot throw up somebody without name ID, which I think potentially could open the door for somebody like a Jonathan Barfield junior, somebody that has got I don't know if it'll be him. He just obviously had a very rough election. But you need somebody with some very strong name ID, some other names I've seen floated around on social media. Um, you know, some some Democrat school board members and things of that. I don't think those guys have the, the level of prominence that you need at this point. And I'm going to be honest, I don't know that there is a local Democrat that could step into this race and go into a, you know, a ten round boxing match with Michael Lee, which is what it's going to be. I mean, if he needs to spend half $1 billion to win this race, the Senate caucus will raise it and it will be spent. I mean, that's that's just that's politics.
Reuel Sample:And he's very he's very good at spending his money. It's not that he's just not throwing money very, very.
Nick Craig:I mean, and I think it showed in the last election cycle, he ran TV ads on David Hill for like six months before the election, every ad break on every TV station.
Ben Schachtman:So intense. I went and did a guest lecture at UNSW just to unpack some of them. And Hill's ads too, because it was, I think the Senate Dems put in to some million. Um, but it was frenetic. It was just, you know, mailers, ads, Facebook posts. It was uh, it was wild. And I really I agree with Nick. I think I've been joking that you could just take a scarecrow and stuff it with$2 million and light it on fire and see how it does.
Nick Craig:Well, and this is, you know, Ben, this is the unsexy part of politics. It happens to Republicans in areas in Wake and Mecklenburg County, and it happens to Democrats in, you know, portions. It's changing a little bit. But over in Brunswick County, where it's just so deep, ruby red, sometimes you just need a body in there that realistically you're not you're not going to win. You can siphon a little bit of cash off, make the Republican or Democrat run a competitive race. But sometimes the math just doesn't math. And it's hard to convince somebody who especially has a job because you can't live off $13,500 a year as a member of the General Assembly. Hey, go run your ass off for the next 12 months. You're probably going to get your ass kicked and.
Reuel Sample:You're going to get beat up.
Nick Craig:Yeah. I mean, and you're going to if.
Ben Schachtman:There's any skeletons in your closet, the Republican Senate caucus is going to find him. And. Yeah, and hang them on Front Street.
Nick Craig:Yeah. And so enjoy that for the next 12 months. But you're still probably not going to win. That's a really tough thing to ask anybody to do.
Ben Schachtman:It's a hell of an invitation.
Nick Craig:Yeah. And that's just the I mean that's just the reality. For example, if you look at district 18, where Deb Butler currently represents in downtown Wilmington, you've seen a couple of individuals challenge her. John Hannett challenged her when it was a little bit of a more competitive district. Wallace West ran a a writing campaign. Republican cannot win in district 18. I mean, there is not enough Republicans in the district for a Republican to win. It's maybe a Democrat. Maybe you get a Democrat that beats her, Deb Butler, in a primary. But a Republican is not winning that seat. It's not there's no math that exists that makes that.
Ben Schachtman:Possible, given Lee's stature, his war chest, that notch that's carved out of downtown Wilmington, because we've got just not the right quite fit. The way it's gerrymandered right now makes it just a little bit tougher. All these things like twist the screw a little bit. So yeah, I don't see it happening. I would I always love competitive races. I think they're good for the general public, but I don't know if we'll see one there this year.
Reuel Sample:But niggling at the back of my mind again, going back to the Carolina Journal, Republicans are upside down. Now. The Carolina Journal was talking about national races like the Senate race.
Nick Craig:There was a question about general legislative ballot. And Republicans were a couple points down there.
Reuel Sample:A couple points down. And will that carry over into races like this? That's the big question.
Nick Craig:I mean, Ben kind of mentioned this earlier about the Democrats gamble with the health care stuff. The idea that the public sentiment right now is, you know, we head into Thanksgiving is going to going to be relevant. Hell, even three months from now is, is is is nothing more than a coin flip? Um, this this comes back to the economy. I was on, uh, PBS state lines program over this past weekend. It's the economy. I mean, that's what's pissing people off. If you look at any national poll, if you look at the Carolina Journal poll or any other statewide polling, you're going to find that people are really pissed off about the status of the economy.
Ben Schachtman:I agree, and I think, you know, there's a chance that the Trump administration continues to make the same mistake that the Biden administration makes, which is to use traditional, uh, you know, consulting elite lingo to describe the economy and not just go to the damn grocery store. Right. And look at how much stuff costs, because the Biden administration, for those last two years, pointing to, you know, cautiously optimistic economic indicators where people are struggling with rent and food and childcare and healthcare. I mean, if that wasn't the end of the Biden administration, I don't know what it was. And that carried over into Kamala Harris 107 day campaign.
Reuel Sample:Have you read her book yet?
Ben Schachtman:I listened to the audiobook and I listened to Jon Stewart beat her up on the podcast.
Nick Craig:Did did she do her own audiobook or did she have somebody else narrate it? She and she do like, maybe parts of it.
Reuel Sample:I think it was parts of it. Okay.
Ben Schachtman:Um, I had it on double speed.
Nick Craig:So it's the only way to get some of these audiobooks. You're like. You're like 32 hours. Like, what am I going to listen to all of?
Ben Schachtman:I have to say, you know, her kind of repeated comments. You know, she wasn't putting any distance between her and the Biden administration, so she inherited that. And so, you know, Trump telling people that, you know, the tariffs are working or that his other economic policy moves are are working when people aren't feeling it, you run that risk of really inflaming what to next point. The I mean, that's the most painful thing. I mean, there's there's lots of identity politics issues. There's lots of foreign policy issues that we get very heated about on Facebook, but when it comes time to pay rent.
Reuel Sample:Yeah. Well, Trump Trump was brilliant in saying eggs. That's what they talked about. They brought they brought economics down to the price of eggs.
Ben Schachtman:It's a it's a solid move because it's if something was $3 and now it's $8. That encapsulates all of your rage. Yeah. And eggs are supposed to be cheap, you know.
Reuel Sample:That's right. They're made by chickens. So now finally, local races. Uh, we've got a huge number of races here in New Hanover County. We've got two county commissioners. You've got four board of Board of education, you've got, uh, district attorney again.
Nick Craig:Uh, Sheriff.
Reuel Sample:The sheriff, uh, I don't think I don't think Sheriff McMahon is going to have to worry about that one. He's amazingly popular.
Nick Craig:He is. But I'll tell you what this is. Republicans have a lot of seats to defend. One on the county commission. Liam Pearce running for reelection for on the school board. That's it's always tough to defend four seats. I mean.
Ben Schachtman:And it goes back and forth. Yeah. And I really feel like there was, um, a crystallizing moment of political blowback in 2022 where, you know, some of the woke stuff, some of the way, the weird way that the school district handled reopening with Covid, where at first the science was on the side of Democrats, where they were saying, you know, stay closed, fight through the pain, you know, we'll get through this. When the science switched, you know, and reputable scientists were saying, I think it's time to balance the the learning loss damage with the risk to a demographic that is not getting sick and not dying at nearly the rate of anyone else. And they were still resistant, I think, in the middle. That riled a lot of parents. And then you add on that a sprinkling of, uh, you know, pornography in the schools, you know, that always a little satanic panic magic kind of bound it all together. And it worked because that slate of four just absolutely pulverized.
Nick Craig:Oh my God. And I don't I mean, it was a it wasn't even close. No, no.
Ben Schachtman:But to use your phrase, lightning in a bottle, I don't know how you could recreate that lightning in a bottle.
Reuel Sample:Are they going to try?
Nick Craig:Um, I mean, they're going to, obviously, I presume. And I don't know this to be the fact I would presume all four of them are going to run. I can't guarantee that at this point. Candidate filing, I'll note, does open on December 1st I think closes on the 19th. So. Right. I, I guess maybe we'll do one more show before Christmas and we'll look at everybody who's run. But obviously all four of them will try to get reelected. Those current conditions, however, don't exist. It's a midterm election. There's always a backlash against the party in charge that's currently the Republicans. Um, I think there are still some education issues to be discussed. Um, that's going to be an interesting a very interesting race to, to follow and, and see if there, you know, if the economy is the major issue, which it is in most elections, what where does that kind of put a race like school board? Very. I think most people would argue important race. But if if everybody's just talking about how much gas is and how much rent is, and I don't have health insurance now because my premiums went up six x. It's like, is there do people even care about what's what's going on on the school board? Does it become less of an issue based campaign in a strictly Partizan one that's going to be that's going to be interesting to see.
Reuel Sample:How do you think that bond that they are talking about? They they the Board of Education and the county commission got together. Was it Monday? Yeah, just just on Monday and talked about a floating a bond. Although that was reported as, as a tax. And there's there's subtle differences between the two.
Ben Schachtman:But yeah you increase taxes to pay for the bond. Yeah. But they did the county the county has maybe some of the best financial people I've ever worked with. And they're you can ask them anything and they'll get you an answer and they can put it in layman's terms. You know, it was basically for median house, which is an insane $580,000.
Nick Craig:Is that what that the county considers the median house?
Ben Schachtman:Wow. Um, the increase would account for, you know, roughly. I think they said it was $100 extra a year, which is not scratch, but it's not so much that I feel like it would be a major headwind. School bonds tend to do pretty well. Mhm. Um, even in blood red, you know Pender County recently school bond sailed right there.
Reuel Sample:But that will be on top of tax increases in the city, a minimal tax increase for the county.
Nick Craig:Um, yeah. Presumably. Um, yeah. And I mean, I think, I think that the school bond is, is different than a tax increase, even though at the end of the day, it, it, it essentially is there does tend to be a little bit more, um, leeway I think with the school system when they're asking for money because they don't, they're, they don't raise any money. I mean, their funding comes from the state, which is a really screwed up formula that they get money for on that. And then the rest comes from the county. The city doesn't chip in, not directly to their budget, maybe some ancillary services, but no, no significant funds. And so I think it's going to be incumbent on the four Republicans running for, for school board to convince Republican voters who they're going to need to show up, why this bond makes sense. And the reality is, there hasn't been a school bond for quite some time. The schools are half the schools are falling apart in New Hanover County. And it turns out it's really expensive to do construction projects on on some of these facilities. So this is another situation, I think, of the can being kicked down the road for so long that now we're up against what is going to be a very I don't know if the final number is been out or discussed, but it's going to be a very, very significant.
Ben Schachtman:$320.5 million, which is.
Nick Craig:It's a huge school.
Ben Schachtman:Which is still not the whole nut. They need closer to 600 million. Honestly. And this this leaves out $170 million that they will still need down the road somehow for New Hanover High School. Although Chris Cowdrey, the county manager, has said this is the last bond for a decade, this will max out the county's borrowing capacity based on their own policies. I will say, though, bonds, especially school bonds and parks bonds, does something the government is really bad at. And that ties. I'm speaking of Jon Stewart. I'm stealing this from him. But it connects money to value, right? It's like, here's what you're getting for your money. And most Americans, if they could see a detailed breakdown of what they were spending their federal tax monies, they would riot. A lot more libertarians just running, screaming in the street, trying to, you know, abolish as much government as they could when it's nebulous. It's it's easier to politicize it and make it a Partizan issue when it's your kid goes to New Hanover High School and it's and the floor is falling into the earth. Yeah. It's like, maybe we do need to do this. So I think that's why I think it they tend to do so well. Yeah. But but it will be to the next point. The candidates will have to ride alongside it because they will basically.
Nick Craig:Well, and that's going to be interesting is you know, you could see a for Democrats for running for reelection. And they said, we need a $400 million school bond. The Republicans would be like, ah, see, this is more tax and spend out of control Democrat policies. We presume that Democrats will be in favor of the school bond. Republicans have the majority. They're the ones kind of pushing for it. So I don't know that you're going to see a big I don't know that it's going to become a big political flash issue, because presumably both sides will be in favor of it. Um, but I think my one, my one area of concern is, and, you know, the 2012 Wilmington Park spawned, all of those projects are still not completed. And I think that is one of the problems that, as a conservative I have is. Yes, Ben, I like the point you make of, um, you can see what you're getting for your money. It's definitely a whole hell of a lot more palatable. But at the same time, if you're going to go ahead and borrow $320 million, I want you to complete the freaking projects. I don't go to the bank and take out a. I don't go out and take a loan on my house to put the money in my savings account, because that doesn't make any sense. If I'm going to take the money out, I need to do something with it. And that's that's always the issue.
Ben Schachtman:To your point, you know, um, school districts have mixed results when it comes to managing any project. I mean, I've heard concerns from Democratic and Republican county commissioners because they're giving schools money for ongoing maintenance and stuff that they they were a little nervous about the school district's ability to manage projects, given that they'd had some people leave that team. And if you've never run a nine figure construction project and I haven't, uh, I hear it's very difficult. And so I do think, you know, for journalists and for residents to and taxpayers, I mean, I think keeping an eye on that process and keeping them honest, if the bond passes and they get the money, I think most people will be happy. That's my prediction. But I think then keeping an eye on it and making sure that it's not sitting in a savings account or account, or that it's not, or that we're not getting, you know, some sort of mission creep or that if we are seeing, you know, major changes in construction cost predictions, that we're not just staying handcuffed to the steering wheel, that we have the opportunity to rethink stuff. So all of that, I think will be the hard work afterwards.
Nick Craig:Yeah. And, you know, I mean, earlier this year, of course, at the federal level, there was a lot of talk about Doge Department of Government Efficiency, and I don't know who would be responsible for it here in North Carolina, whether it's a subcommittee in the General Assembly or, you know, somebody like the state auditor's office. I think there needs to be a thorough investigation on every single outstanding bond that currently exists in the state, which is not going to be an easy project. I mean, I'm not saying this is not my wave, my magic wand and fix the problem kind of thing, but that needs to be looked at because there are I can I can guarantee you there are probably two decade old bonds that are still sitting out all across the state of North Carolina with incomplete projects, because that's that's a major issue if you're going to ask me to increase, even if it's only $100 a year, increase my my tax bill by $100 a year, and I'm dead by the time that by the time that said project gets completed, I'm not paying for stuff 20 years down the road. That's insane.
Reuel Sample:Because the whole the whole basis of a bond, which is what makes it palatable, is that it's a it's a limited time thing to raise the monies or raise the taxes for a limited time. You get the project done and then you move on. Sure. And and when you've got bonds that never get completed or never get fully raised, then they, they fall into Reagan's mantra that there's nothing so permanent as a temporary program.
Ben Schachtman:And I will say we struggle with readers sometimes with that distinction. I'm glad you brought that up, because we'll often see fiscal conservatives criticized for greenlighting projects while holding back on, you know, FTEs, full, full time employees. And one is you can see the project, you know, how much it costs. And when it's done, it's done and the money spent doesn't affect the ledger of the tax rate. Whereas when you're adding employees, they're going to make more benefits and insurance is going to go up and that is going to lift the tax rate. Now, if you're on the left and you're not as concerned with the tax rate, this doesn't matter to you. But the reason we report on these things separately, and you can't really do an apples to apples comparison is that.
Reuel Sample:Yes, exactly. All right. So let us know what you think, like and subscribe on YouTube or on every place that you can possibly think of. So let us know what you think. Well, that about wraps it up for the Three Guys podcast. We had a little bit of technical issues at the end, but I assure you you did not miss anything. Be sure to like and subscribe and leave us your comments, both on our social media sites and on our website, and let us know what you think of our podcast. For Ben Schachtman and Nick Craig, I'm Reuel Sample. Thanks for listening.