THE WORKFORCE SHIFT NO ONE IS DESIGNING FOR

Everyone is talking about the future of work.

Executives.
 Boards.
 Governments.
 Consultants.
 HR leaders.

The conversation is everywhere.

But here’s the problem:

Most organizations are discussing workforce disruption…
 without actually designing for it.

The World Economic Forum projects:
 → 170 million new jobs created globally
 → 92 million jobs displaced

And many leaders hear that and think:

“Well… net positive.”

But that is not how workforce transitions work.

Because the people losing jobs are not automatically qualified for the new ones being created.

That gap?
 That transition?
 That redesign challenge?

That is where leadership either succeeds…
 or fails.

Today we’re talking about the difference between workforce awareness…
 and workforce strategy.

Because awareness is not strategy.
 Discussion is not design.
 And awareness without design becomes deferred management.

Leaders know the workforce is changing.

They talk about it constantly.

AI transformation.
 Reskilling.
 Workforce disruption.
 Jobs of the future.

The language is everywhere.

But most organizations are still operating with workforce models built for stability.

Not acceleration.

And that gap?

Is becoming one of the biggest leadership failures of the AI era.

Because awareness…

is not strategy.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:02

So, welcome back to Two Doctors in a Twist. So, I know you were probably like, oh, what's gotten into Maryland? You know, Jamie is not here with us for this quarter. And now we're on episode eight of 12. And today we're going to talk about workforce strategy isn't strategy. So, what are you talking about, Marilyn? Well, leaders know the workforce is changing. They talk about it constantly, but most are not designing for it. The World Economic Forum projects that 170 million new jobs and 92 million displaced workers are going to be happening by the year 2030. So most leaders hear net gain, right? 170 million new, 92 displaced. But these are not direct exchanges, guys. The people losing jobs are not automatically filling the new ones. And most organizations have no design for that gap. They really don't. Awareness is not strategy. Please know that. Discussion is not design. And awareness, excuse me, without design is deferred management. So let's get started. On the work shift, no one is designing for. So everyone again is talking about the future of work: executives, boards, governments, consultants, HR leaders. The conversation is everywhere. But here's the problem, guys. Most organizations are discussing workforce disruption without actually designing for it. Again, as I stated in my opening statement, 170 million new jobs will be created globally, globally, and 92 million jobs will be displaced. And many leaders hear that and think, well, there's a net positive here, guys. There's got to be a positive from this. But that is not how workforce transitions work. Because the people losing jobs are not automatically qualified for the new ones being created. That gap, that gap right there, that transition, that redesign challenge, that is where leadership either succeeds or fails. So today we're talking about the difference between workforce awareness and workforce strategy. Because awareness is not strategy. Discussion is not design, and awareness without design becomes deferred management. Leaders know the workforce is changing. They talk about it constantly. AI transformation, reskilling, workforce disruption, jobs for the future. The language is everywhere. There are grants galore. The government is trying to help us. They're giving you all money because they want you to be on AI. Yes, there's reasons. We'll talk about that later. But most organizations are still operating with workforce models billed for stability, not acceleration. And that gap is becoming one of the biggest leadership failures of the AI era. Again, because awareness is not what? It's not strategy. So let's start with the numbers. Everyone quotes. The World Economic Forum again projects 170 million new jobs will be created by 2030. 92 million jobs will be displaced. Not a net game. The people losing jobs are not automatically the people that will be filling the new ones. And most organizations, again, have no design for that gap, no workforce transition architecture, no capability redesign strategy, no reskilling pathway connected to where the business is actually going. Just awareness. I think this is one of the biggest leadership blind spots right now. Organizations may say, we know AI is changing work. Okay, okay. Then what exactly are you doing about it, guys? Because knowing disruption is happening is not the same thing as preparing your workforce for it. And many organizations are still operating under industrial era assumptions, fixed job descriptions, fixed departments, fixed career letters, fixed skill models. Hey, AI changes work dynamically. You know what? For people like myself that like change, that likes to redesign and things of that nature, this is perfect for these behaviors or personality traits. I have personally loved AI and working with it and the different models, the different systems, the different processes, the uh uh reading and researching and putting things on different systems, different cloud-based things. I have learned so much and applied so much. And that's how I knew that as I talked about in the last call, there has to be some type of infrastructure that helps you or the learner to see and the people that's paying for it to see what people have actually learned and how they're actually applying it from a skills-based perspective. Because tasks are shifting, decision ownership uh shifts as well, and skill relevance shifts, guys, which means workforce planning can no longer be static. I know it's it's rough, ain't it? But that creates another job for someone, don't you think? And honestly, most companies are still treating workforce strategy like HR conversations instead of an enterprise operating model conversation. So this is where I think organizations misunderstand the real issue. The problem is not simply job loss, the problem is capability transition velocity. How fast can an organization identify a changing work, redesign workflows, retrain talent, redeploy people, and create new value pathways. That becomes a competitive advantage, not an AI tool alone. Because a lot of times I see companies bring in things, the companies that I have been brought into uh to cling, to fix, to make better processes and procedures and to operate because I I feel one I'm excited about all of this because I feel like I'm back in the in the days of Arissa and and uh changing things and uh TR86 plan restatements and compliance, uh Sarbang's Oxley, Department of Labor, IRS rules, documentation rules, all the changes that were happening. We are going through that right now. So, not AI tools alone, because two companies can buy this exact same technology, yeah, but the organization that redesigns human capability faster will outperform the other one every time. And I have this has been proven even back in DAZ, those days when we were going through that, and I was a young pup out of the college, out of the woods, uh, going through this process and seeing things. You cannot just because you buy something don't mean you're going to be successful because they were successful. This applies now doing AI, especially. This is where leaders need to stop asking. How do we protect every existing role? You can't, and believe me, people who are working for a company and wondering why they let me off and all of that, they just don't know sometimes where to make those changes. So why they decide they'd rather, you know, downsize, create um capital, but don't walk away and say things about these companies that you're going to regret later because they will be pulling you back in. You just have to you have to get prepared to be reskilled on the things that they're reskilling on. And so companies are starting to ask, how do we design, redesign human contribution inside an AI-enabled system? Those are two very different leadership questions. Again, one is how do we protect every existing role? Two, how do we design human contribution inside an AI-enabled system? And there's another uncomfortable truth here. Some organizations are still pretending this transformation would happen slowly. It won't. The acceleration curve is already visible, and leaders who delay redesign decisions create organizational drift. I see it happening. You start seeing duplicate work, unclear ownership, employer, employee, I'm sorry, anxiety, skills confusion, inconsistent execution, and middle management bottlenecks because they don't know where they're going and what's next for them. Because employees know change is happening, they just don't know what it means for them. And silence creates instability. That's why workforce strategy has become visible. People need clarity around what skills matter, what work is changing, where opportunities exist, and how the organization plans to evolve. Without that, employees began managing uncertainty emotionally instead of strategically. And let's talk about the part many organizations avoid leadership accountability, because some executives are treating workforce transformation like a future problem. But redesigning work after disruption happens is far more expensive than designing it before it happens. I see it when people are being hired, wrong decisions are being made. You change your life and you're going over to a company thinking you just got promoted, you just got elevated, and you know, you just got temporary until resolutions can happen. Don't buy it. Know what you're getting into before you jump ship from an already company that has your back and at least needs you. Do your best, show your best, get some things done for yourself. Learn, grow. Don't wait for the company to bring something to you. You bring something to the company. This is why I keep saying the AI era is not just a technology transition, it's a management transition. The organizations that survive this era, guys, will not necessarily be the ones with the most advanced AI. They will be the ones that redesign systems early, communicate honestly, build learning cultures, and operationalize workforce adaption continuously. Now, you can be a part of those organizations that do that by getting yourself straight as individuals and helping these managers understand what's going on. And managers get off your high horses. You need your people. Listen, if you're in management, it may mean that you made it there because of other things. But the smartest people may not be in management, they may be in the trenches and you need to rely on them and get some things done. And this is where learning and development becomes strategic infrastructure, not just a side department. Because if your workforce cannot evolve with the operating model, the operating model eventually breaks. Because this issue is an issue I keep seeing. Organizations are discussing change, forecasting change, acknowledging the change, but not designing for it. And there's a difference because discussion does not build capability, awareness does not prepare people, and reassurance is not preparation. This the truth is the real truth, guys, most workforce strategies today are still built around maintaining the current system and not redesigning for the next one. We're not in the same systems. Everything has been changed. It's changing, whether you like it or not. No, your company doesn't have to change its value system or mission, but the way it operates has to change. So, what are you talking about, Marilyn? The three shifts happening right now. There are actually three of them. The first one is augmentation. AI expands human roles, people work alongside systems, and product productivity really increases. This is the versions leaders are comfortable talking about because it feels it feels positive, okay? Right? And then there's displacement. Certain tasks disappear, roles shrink, entire functions begin changing. This is the version that most organizations avoid discussing openly because it creates discomfort, you know? And then the number three thing is creation. Entirely new categories of work emerge, roles that didn't exist before suddenly become essential. This is the version most organizations underestimate, and all three are happening at once, right? So let me give you some proof on this. Let's ground this in what the data is showing the data is showing us. We love data, right? Research from PwC shows workers with AI skills now command a 56% wage premium. And skills required in AI exposed jobs are changing dramatically faster than other roles. That's not a gradual evolution, that's acceleration. Again, workers with AI skills now command a 56% wage premium compared to skills required in AI exposed jobs are changing dramatically faster than the roles. That's not gradual evolution, that's acceleration. And yet, many organizations are still training people for yesterday's workflows, yesterday's structures, yesterday's assumptions about work, while environments around them are changing in real time. So you're saying, well, Marilyn, what's the problem? This, and I've been trying to share this with you on this episode. This is where the conversation becomes uncomfortable, really. Because this is not just a workforce issue, it's an ethical leadership issue. What do leaders owe their people? And when they know, especially when they know work is changing, do we avoid the conversation? Do we reassure people vaguely? Or do we delay difficult truths? Or maybe, or maybe, maybe do we redesign pathways early? Because one of the most damaging things leaders can do is wait until disruption becomes unavoidable, not because they intended harm, but because they delayed preparation. Now, I think that companies that are finding that their resources, their capital, their operating expenses, their net revenue uh is lower because things are changing, not like they were before. This is the perfect time for you. You actually have an advantage here. And you may be saying, Well, Marilyn, how so? How is this really? Well, you can identify which roles are expanding and which are shrinking and which new capabilities are emerging. You can start building transition pathways early. Don't wait until disruption becomes a crisis. And as you know, if you're a worker, don't wait until your employer brings you AI training. You best get out there and get some training yourself. Some things we have to go ahead and pay for, some things you got to find the best of the best to help you be the best of the best. Stop waiting, people. We got to we have too many people waiting for something and saying, Oh, I want that free. Oh, I'm going to wait for the company. Oh, I'm going to take a class. Why would you take a class from somewhere where you're already working and you know, you know they're not up to par, but you take the class anyway, thinking, oh, I'm going to structure this. Don't you think the people out there are going to know what you did? Take something where you become the best. You're top of line. You're on it. Because your employer is going to pay attention to that. And for employers, you need to get your people as soon as possible, as soon as the revenue is right or not right. You need to dedicate part of it to the retraining and restaffing of your retraining of your people. Train for where the organization is going, not where it used to be. Design for capability and not programs. This is critical. Workforce transformation is not a workshop, it is a system. And this connects directly to my human-centered performance architecture framework. Because workforce readiness, economic mobility, and identity development are not accidental outcomes. They are products of the design system. Now, here's the twist. Many organizations do not actually have a workforce strategy. They have a hiring strategy or a staffing strategy or a cost reduction strategy. But workforce strategy means understanding what capabilities the business will need, what capabilities are declining, what humans should continue owning, what AI should augment, and how authority and responsibility evolve together. That is fundamentally the different level of leadership thinking. The future of work is not waiting for organizations to feel ready. And the leaders who navigate this era successfully, successfully, are not the ones who simply recognize disruption. They are the ones who design through it. And the employees that recognize it that's working, because you own your own journey, they are the ones who are designing through it as well. Because workforce strategy is not, we know change is coming. Workforce strategy is we redesigned the system before the pressure forced us to. Awareness is not strategy, discussion is not design, and leadership in the AI era will increasingly be measured by one thing, guys. How effectively organizations help humans transition into the future they are building. Yeah, that's what's going to happen. And as an organization, as individuals as well in these organizations, they're going to have to understand that as well. So map workforce reality honestly, build transition pathways early, align learning to future work, design for capability, not programs. Those are four things that we all can do in our workforce readiness journey. And as I close out this, this conversation, this is where really the conversation becomes uncomfortable. Because this is not just a workforce issue, it's an ethical leadership issue. We do what we what do leaders own. Their employees, their people, and when they know work is changing. We need to speak up. We got to stop avoiding a conversation. We got to stop reassuring people vaguely. And we have to stop delaying difficult truths. We got to come on out with it, guys. It is the process. I spend my time telling people the truth these days and not trying to sugarcoat it. Because a 56% wage premium right now looks good to some people. Now, I don't want you to think that you're going to keep that. That's a temporary fix because once things catch up, you're out of there. So save your money. A lot of you go and spend too much and uh too soon, and you find yourselves in a situation. Uh make sure you build those pathways, transition pathways early. Map your workforce reality honestly, align learning to future work and design for capability and not programs. Okay. Before the next episode, ask yourself this. Which roles in your organization's are in your organization are expanding? Which are shrinking? Which capabilities will matter most in three years? And are we preparing people for what's next or protecting what's already changing? Because the future workforce will not be shaped by awareness alone, guys. It will be shaped by leaders willing to design for the realities. Okay. So in our next episode, we are going to be moving uh more into our next area. Education is producing the wrong outcomes. Yes, yes, yes. That's a that's a hard one for us. We talked about education in episode seven, and we're going to go deeper into education in episode nine. So stick with me, stay with me, and I guarantee you you're going to have something to talk about at lunch at the water cooler and with your family and friends. This is deep. And it was meant to really spark aha moments and say, Yeah, I got to do something. Not just spark it, but motivate you to engage in this process and make the changes you need to make in your organizations and for yourself. I'm Dr. Marilyn Carroll, and this has been an episode of Two Doctors in a Twist. Again, Dr. Jamie is out this quarter working on a project, and you have me here working with you. Take care, and I'll see you on the next episode.