The Home Guys Podcast

Grant Cardone Just Predicted the Housing Market… Here’s What We Think

James/Jen Kolde and Jaden Ghylin

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0:00 | 53:15

Jaden and James break down a bold Grant Cardone interview on the future of real estate—and not everything is as straightforward as it seems.

👉 Check out REIClosings out here:  https://go.ezreiclosings.com/tc?am_id=homeguys 

In this reaction, we dive into Cardone’s predictions on interest rates, housing supply, and where the market could be headed next. Will mortgage rates actually drop below 6%… or even hit 4%? And if they do, does that mean prices go up—or down?

We also unpack:
🏠 Why lower rates could flood the market with new listings
🏗️ How new construction is quietly dominating existing home sales
📍 Why real estate trends look completely different depending on your market (Florida & Texas might surprise you)

On the investing side, we talk strategy:
💰 The “Millionaire Program” (duplex & fourplex house hacking)
🔨 Flipping homes in high-demand cities like Miami
📈 Why real estate wealth is built on equity—not monthly cash flow

And of course, we get into the bigger risks:
⚠️ The “Silver Tsunami” and what millions of aging homeowners could mean for prices
🏙️ Shifting preferences—are younger generations done with suburban homes?
❓ Is the housing shortage actually real… or a myth?

If you're thinking about investing, buying, or just trying to understand where the market is going, this is a conversation you don’t want to miss.

Drop your thoughts in the comments—do you agree with Cardone, or are we heading in a different direction?

📲 Interested in learning more about licensing or mentorship?
Connect with our team here: homeguys.com/yt

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SPEAKER_00

Single family is very difficult to sell house today. The only people selling homes, new homes are selling for less than existing homes. So the sellers aren't creative enough to offer financing and they can't get the price low enough to actually bring the buyers in. If rates fall off the cliff, the first thing that would happen is prices would come down, not go up.

SPEAKER_04

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Did he just say that we're gonna get down to four by the end of the year? All right, uh, welcome to the uh Jaden and James uh podcast where we uh talk about real estate and whatever else might come up. Um today I think uh I think we're doing a reaction video. Jaden, how's it going? Sorry, I forgot. Doing great. How are you doing? Good. Uh preparing for some thunderstorms rolling in here. So it's uh what is it one o'clock at night or in the daytime, and it looks like it's about eight o'clock at night right now. So beware. So anywho, uh what's that? Hopefully it doesn't snow. Yeah, I got shorts on, so actually I put the plow away on uh on the side by side, and uh I was over by the neighbor, and I'm like, I reach out, uh y'all I go, You think I can it's safe to put this thing away? But I will tell you this day back in 20 uh it was 17, 16. Damn it, it's on my Facebook. We got eight inches of snow. You were here for two, Jaden. So yeah, because it was it was before you left.

SPEAKER_06

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04

So I started laughing. I'm like, oh crap, because I I took a picture outside the back door and it says, you know, any all the snow, anyways. Hey guys, I'm rambling here, but um, we got a good video. Um, actually, I don't know if you don't know if it's a good video, it could be a crappy video, but we're about to find out. We're gonna get some reaction. Brady's gonna play it for us, and uh, we're just gonna keep going from there. So um I know Grant Cardone's in it, so shoot it, hit it, Brady.

SPEAKER_02

What are you seeing right now happening in the real estate market?

SPEAKER_00

Well, it's just you know, it's a lot, lots going on, and and um we've got a bunch of debt. Single family, single family is not gonna you let's just start there, okay? Yeah, very difficult to sell house today. The only people selling homes, new homes are selling for less than existing homes are, and that reason that isn't because the new homes are subsidizing the rate. They're buying the rate down from six and a half down to five and a half or even lower. They're subsidizing down payments. Uh and bill down the street that wants to sell his house, the guy that wants to sell his house here can't do that, or he doesn't think he can. So the sellers aren't creative enough to offer financing, so they just lower their price and the pr they can't get the price low enough to actually bring the buyers in. Now, mortgage rates look like they want to fall off the the ledge right here.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, they just drop less six.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, so they're below six. I think they go down to four. I think they're gonna just collapse here in the next six months. What do you think that's if that happens? That will that's interesting.

SPEAKER_04

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Did did he just say that we're gonna get down to four by the end of the year?

SPEAKER_05

He says six months. This is in February, so this is two months ago. And they've actually got up since this was recorded.

SPEAKER_04

So I thought it's gone down. I thought it had.

SPEAKER_05

Rates went up after the Iran war started.

SPEAKER_04

Oh, okay. Yeah, I forgot about that.

SPEAKER_05

They went up a little bit. They're over six and a quarter now. They were at about six. So, I mean, I think what he was thinking probably is inflation was coming down. Uh we're gonna get a new Fed share in pretty soon, I think in a couple months. And the new Fed share could drop rates quickly, potentially. So it could happen. I would I sure hope it does. I mean, if we had rates that go from six to four, the real estate market's gonna explode. Um well, all the refined act, people are gonna finally if if that was a for sure thing gonna happen, we should stop selling all houses now and just sit on them. But I don't know for sure if that's gonna happen. I I'm pretty skeptical.

SPEAKER_04

Hold on, hold on. Let me grab the crystal ball here. Crystal ball.

SPEAKER_05

I have not heard anybody else predict that they're gonna drop to four. I've not heard anybody else say that. I think um most people are predicting like a you know, maybe a five and a half percent interest rate by the end of the year, maybe five, like low fives, maybe would be aggressive, I think. So why why does he get away with saying that? Because he's great. Maybe he'll explain to us why he thinks that. But uh my guess, my guess the new new Fed chair might be the reason he's thinking that.

SPEAKER_00

The housing market will be real estate agents will start making money again, brokers will start making money again, mortgage brokers.

SPEAKER_02

So does that mean then you are bullish long-term for single-family homes? Because if if if but if mortgage rates drop, don't you think that all of a sudden then affordability comes back and that the buyer can now pay what the seller wants?

SPEAKER_00

So I think what happens in the beginning, contrary, is I think that if rates fall off the cliff, if they would come down really fast, which is what Trump wants. Yeah, and the first thing that would happen is prices would come down, not go up. If rates dropped, I think what happens now, and most people don't agree with this. I think the supply is gonna go so high. So many people are gonna be like, okay, now's the time to sell our house.

SPEAKER_04

What?

SPEAKER_00

Hold on, supply is gonna increase so hold on.

SPEAKER_04

How does the supply you can't imagine?

SPEAKER_05

A lot of people aren't selling their house because rates are high and they know it's hard to sell right now, so they're not selling. And that's been true for a few years now. So he's saying that once this rates come down, everyone's gonna go, okay, now's my time to sell, which this might this might be exactly what happens. Um that everybody will flood the market with with real estate, and it might reduce I can I could foresee that possibly it's hard to say for sure. Like, we don't know.

SPEAKER_04

I mean, yeah, but what I'm getting at is this is I thought there was a shortage of houses.

SPEAKER_05

Well, I think in certain states that's not true. That's not that was you're well, you're saying that's like from three years ago. This house the short uh housing shortage, that's from like three to five years ago.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, but I thought we've really solved that problem. I mean, the the builders aren't caught up yet.

SPEAKER_05

Um well, there's not a housing shortage in Florida. I can tell you that.

SPEAKER_04

There's not right, it's not trying to have an understanding. So, okay, just see if you can follow my logic and then you can tear it apart however you want it. Um the rates are gonna go down, and then all of a sudden everybody wants to go to the market. Aren't they just swapping houses? So, how is there gonna be more?

SPEAKER_05

Well, yeah, you're assuming that somebody that's selling their house isn't gonna go buy another house. So does that really increase supply? You know, it's only gonna increase supply if somebody sells a house and doesn't buy another house. If they sell house and apartment or are they talking about the boomers then?

SPEAKER_04

And the boomers, maybe the boomers.

SPEAKER_05

I mean, the boomers that I know in my family and stuff, this is what I've seen is that none of them are selling houses. They don't have any interest in selling their houses, they just keep on adding on to them and renovating them. So I don't see like any of them going to their own house. I can't wait till rates drop so I can sell my house. I've not heard anyone say that.

SPEAKER_04

Like, yeah, that's so that's that's where I say that it's it's a little that if you I understand what you're talking about, but I I'm also I understand more of it as you're if everybody people are still selling across, they're not going to be able to increase activity in the market.

SPEAKER_05

The activity's gonna increase is you'll have buyers and sellers both transacting more. But will inventory go up? I don't know. Maybe you have rent, maybe you have landlords that want to sell rental properties or vacant Airbnbs that they've been sitting on that they'll list. That would increase inventory.

SPEAKER_04

That would that would I can see something like that. But again, that's sorry, I just went down a little deeper hole.

SPEAKER_05

I was like, I mean, well, it's a good question. Like, where is the inventory gonna come from where someone's not gonna go buy another house? It would be coming from investors, hedge funds. You know, would the hedge funds and investors start selling properties if the rates drop? They could.

SPEAKER_04

No, they're just gonna go buy more and put more on there.

SPEAKER_05

If they if rates drop, they might want to go buy more because now they can get cheap money. So it's it's hard to say for sure what. Yeah. He's definitely making some assumptions. Like, I don't know if anybody could really predict what's gonna happen.

SPEAKER_04

But well, if he does, well, I'm gonna follow him everywhere then. If that's if the hall comes true.

SPEAKER_05

I think in Florida, if the rates went down to four percent, the prices would stabilize down here because right now they're dropping about five percent a year. I think that would stabilize.

SPEAKER_04

But see, we we have we've had this conversation before again, you know, not all markets the same, but Florida got overwhelmed, like Texas. Like Texas is having a problem right now. Um too much building, too, too many houses were built. Well, it's almost like they get, but they're putting their foot in their mouth. Well, no, but they they that, and then they had all these people moving from California and New York going down to Florida and overpaying for houses. So, again, what everybody thinks that uh the market's stabilizing now, um, not because they're coming back to realistic pricing. These people aren't paying cash for this stuff anymore. I mean, I think you told it on the story that the people that lived across the street from you sold their house for a hundred thousand dollars less than the than they bought.

SPEAKER_05

Maybe two hundred thousand, yeah. Yeah, I mean, it's that sucks. Yeah, that's you had those people moving in 2022 when the prices were ridiculous and just buying stuff at crazy prices without even looking at it. And uh it was pretty obvious at the time that they were making huge mistakes, but yeah, now we're seeing the backside of that. Those people are some of them are reselling at lot huge losses, you know. But it was a pretty short period of time where that it was like the last half of 2021 and most of 2022. You know, if you bought a house in Florida at those times, you not a good time to buy a house in Florida. You probably lost money.

SPEAKER_04

I thought it was more the people who bought it in 23-24 where they they thought they were still right in the 2020.

SPEAKER_05

Maybe, I mean, in 2023 the prices didn't really come down that much, so you're probably still overpaid in 23. 24, they started were coming down a little bit. I mean, uh, if you bought a house in the last four years, you're you've most likely have lost money because they've just been going down every year. You know, but they're just not going down a ton. But in 22, like 22 is when you were like prices were like they jumped, you know, like things were getting bit up 10%. So a million dollar house was selling for 1.1 million just because of the bidding war, you know.

SPEAKER_04

Right. Yeah, that's a that's a nice problem to have.

SPEAKER_03

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SPEAKER_00

So much that everybody's gonna be like, I'll drop my price right now because I want to move into that other house.

SPEAKER_01

So to then secure another low-interest loan?

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, exactly. They're trying to move to something right now. Right now, look, for a sale to take place, there has to be motivation on both parties. So for me to compromise my price, I gotta want to go do something else. And right now, there's no there's no urgency to compromise my my my price because I have no place to go. The moment I have someplace to go, then I compromise my expectation for what I want for my house because I want to go to this other place so bad. And that doesn't exist in the system right now. You've got to have supply, you gotta have a lot of supply, you gotta have tremendous demand, and you also have to have an urgency by both parties to say, I'm ready to roll right now because I get a low rate, not a low price. By the way, I'd rather a low rate than a low price. All day long. This is what Trump wants, by the way. He doesn't want to destroy the equity in the housing. There's about$38 trillion uh uh equity sitting in homes, and he doesn't want to destroy that. He could, you know, he doesn't want to do that because that would hurt your parents. It would hurt anybody that owns a home. What he wants to do is drop the rate, maintain the equity, and have people build afford a home.

SPEAKER_02

So, what do you think is the best way to make money in real estate?

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, so that's why he's saying he thought that the rates would drop to 4% because Trump, and I was thinking this too. Trump really wants rates to go down. But I'm like, well, we're a year and four months into Trump's presidency, and rates haven't hardly moved. So, yeah, I mean Trump wants rates to be as low as possible, but they haven't come down hardly at all.

SPEAKER_04

So is that something you think the Republican Party sets up for going in for you know Vance? I'm sure Vance is gonna run.

SPEAKER_05

Well, you got the midterms coming up in November, so I think you can make the case that they're gonna push really hard to get mortgage rates down this summer for the midterms in November. So I think what you're what you're gonna see probably this summer is you're gonna see oil prices come down and mortgage rates come down. Because if they don't, the Republicans are in trouble in November. They're gonna lose.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, that's gosh, it's it's amazing. I I know I've thought about that before, and and you just made me think that how not corrupt, but how simple these things are.

SPEAKER_05

If the that it's just like the data has proven this. If you have if people are unhappy about oil prices and and the inflation and stuff in the like the summertime before an election, the incumbent party's gonna lose. So they need to fix that. So yeah, I think you probably see uh mortgage rates come down into the fives this summer, maybe low fives. I think they don't have to go to four. I think people would be happy if they were 5.25, you know. From six and a quarter to five and a quarter, that's a big difference. And I think that frees the market to start moving more.

SPEAKER_04

I was trying to think of what I had at one time, and I think the lowest that I ever had was like six point six point two five, maybe is like when we bought it.

SPEAKER_05

Our first house was five five point seven five, I think, in two thousand five. We know I thought that was a good rate. I was pretty happy with that. You know rates in the fives were pretty normal for a long time for the nineties and two thousands. That was a good rate, five and a half.

SPEAKER_04

Well, you could have a mortgage, our mortgage payment was like twelve hundred bucks. Yeah. And I'm like, where could you own a house? You know, you can't.

SPEAKER_05

Say ours was less than ours was less than five and three quarters.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, you know, yeah, anyways, yeah. Um, go ahead, Brady.

SPEAKER_02

In 2026, or is it just waiting?

SPEAKER_00

Well, it's not the single family home. If it if if you if you if you force me though into the single family home and say, look, it you grant, how would you make money in single family homes? Well, I would pick three or four cities, Miami would be one of them, and I'd say, I'd go, I'd probably go do as much as I hate this concept, but you're saying short term, you just want to make some money. I'd go flip uh old 80s homes in Miami in certain locations in a five or six different pockets. You need a place where there's old inventory, there's old 80s, eight-foot ceilings, old kitchens, and you go in, rehab them, uh, and pick up 15 or 20,000 a year. But the problem is you need some money to do that. You don't you you're not gonna need a market, you need some money to flip that house and you need guts. And now you're back in a sales game. Pause. Now you gotta buy it.

SPEAKER_04

You gotta you too can get a home guys franchise and home guys does. I figured it was a good time for a quick commercial, guys. Um, yeah, he's talking about it.

SPEAKER_05

I think he's right though, with single family. Like uh in most markets, single family rentals don't pencil out very well at all. So if you're gonna do single family, like flipping is kind of the way to make some money doing it. Right.

SPEAKER_04

So yeah, I just thought that was a really good opportunity to get home guys USA. Look us up. All right, go ahead, Brady.

SPEAKER_00

They try to steal the house. You're calling on a hundred people to get one or two deals, not a hundred people to get 40 deals. So that's why the AI thing and the social media thing would be such much greater return than me trying to get you to sell me your house that you just bought.

SPEAKER_01

Those would still be active ways to make money, though. Like you're spending your time making money. What about passive income? Like if you're going to deploy your capital in any asset, would real estate be the optimal asset class? Or what would I know I had any money? I didn't know I had any money. I thought I was broke. Well, let's just say someone's out there, they're working a job that they they went to college for, they're making 75, 80k a year, yeah, and they don't want to change career paths and they have this disposable income that they want to invest somewhere.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I mean, uh that that that's a different play. So you're describing me when I was 29 years old. I'm making I'm making 80 grand a year, uh, at 30,000 left over. What am I I do that two years in a row, I do it three years in a row, I got$90,000. I'm not overspending. I live like him, very frugal. He watches every$12 that he spends, every$1 and 10 cents. And and so I'm I'm banking money over here. I don't know what to do with it. And then I started buying real estate. So I started using that real estate to leverage. I would go buy, but it wouldn't be a single family home, it'd be at least four units. Uh Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac today have a five percent program where you can buy four units. It's limited to the four units and a million, I think it's a million three ninety. Five percent down. So on a million dollar four-unit complex, you could put fifty grand down, on two hundred grand, you could put ten thousand dollars down, and you'd get four units of cash flow. But you're not getting rich. You you do you basically took five thousand dollars, you have four units, you're the manager, you got to go collect six thousand dollars a month, four times fifteen hundred. You're gonna have to fix a place, garden a place, collect the checks, evict people, look at lease notices, qualify people, like fix the plumbing.

SPEAKER_01

So that ain't passive, bro. That what would you recommend to someone who has maybe 30 or 40k?

SPEAKER_05

Let's go ahead and stop right there.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_05

So that's that's actually what he's talking about is like the number one thing I re I did a video on this actually. If if I talk to somebody that's younger, like what should they do in real estate to generate wealth? What he just said is the number one thing I tell people to do. Go buy a duplex or fourplex. You can still have your own your other career or whatever. You don't need to be a real estate professional, do that full time. You can just do this on the side. Go buy a duplex or fourplex, do the 5% down loan. Um, I think it can be even lower than that. Maybe it's 3% if you live in one of the units. FHGA thing is a 3% program if you live in one of the units. So you can buy these things, I mean, a lot of real estate for a very small down payment. And then uh, but like you said, usually you're gonna have to be like pretty actively involved in managing that place because it probably isn't gonna cash flow enough to pay a property manager. The other thing with a property manager is you lose a lot of control over your expenses and things, and um you just have to have a lot more cash flow to cover cover the inefficiency of that. It's much better if you can manage it yourself. So, but if you do that when you're young and you buy, you know, a couple duplexes, buy a duplex every year for 10 years. Um you have 20 units after 10 years. I mean, you don't have to ever you're gonna be you're gonna retire rich doing that.

SPEAKER_04

All right. So I I would even say, even if it was two years, Jaden, because typically it's the two years. Yeah, every other year to buy a duplex. Yeah, you turn and burn, but um you're you're yeah, you're definitely gonna set yourself up for uh for success if you do that.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, it's like an automatic millionaire program. It's um there's almost no risk to doing that. As long as you buy them right, you know what you're you know, you learn and know what you're doing. But um Yeah, and not a lot of people do it, so it's a pretty pretty good way to go if you want to have a different career. Right. All right, we can we'll see what else he's got to say. I think he's gonna talk about passive investing, and probably he's got a real estate syndication fund, and I'm pretty certain he's gonna pitch that right now, but let's find out.

SPEAKER_01

Money that they can invest somewhere, they're able to save a little bit of money at the end of every month. Yeah, where should they deploy that?

SPEAKER_00

Well, I'd say invest it with me, but it's it's not enough.

SPEAKER_01

You can't say that. That's the one thing. It's not enough money, so I don't need to say it. Where would they be putting that money?

SPEAKER_00

I would do what I just said. I would do the four-unit deal and suffer and go do ten up. I'd do four units. I'd take five thousand dollars.

SPEAKER_05

You heard this before. No, I haven't heard this before. This is exactly the same thing I'd like.

SPEAKER_00

I'd go do a second one and a third one.

SPEAKER_05

I'd do them if I could do a this is exactly the same thing I tell people to do. So it's funny hearing him say the exact same thing. So I have not heard many people say this actually. Um, it's not talked about that much. But I I ran a financial peace group at church a few years ago with a table of young people that were like 18 to 25, and they were asking me all these investing questions, real estate questions, and and I I was trying to figure out what's the best thing I could tell them to do that would help them the most. This was the number one thing I could think of to tell them to do was to go buy duplexes and fourplexes when they're young. And if they can live in one of the units, even better because you get better financing, your rates are lower, um, lower down payment. Plus, you can manage the place. So you actually live for free too. Live in one of the units, live for free, manage the place. You're on site, on site manager, you free labor. It's really like there's so many efficiencies with doing that that it's it's um and what when you're older and have you know and you're married with kids, you can't do that. So you really gotta do it when you're young. Um I would tell if you can do it at 18, 19 years old, that's a great time to start. Because your labor is cheap when you're when you're that age, you know, you don't cost that much to to do work. So it's it's a really good program. But yeah, that's that's awesome to hear him him saying the exact same thing.

SPEAKER_04

Actually, you wouldn't believe it, Jaden. Or maybe you do believe it, but um there's A lot of I see that on Facebook all the time. Yeah, you know, I'm looking for to buy a fourplex. I'm looking, you know, everybody wants to, you know, things are advertising on Facebook to get a fourplex. I I don't know of uh a Facebook, I don't know if a fourplex has ever been sold for retail value.

SPEAKER_05

You can find the 80-year-old senior citizen with a fourplex selling on Facebook.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, I mean, because that's what everybody wants. Um, you know, that that's kind of the that's that's the niche. It's just now trying to find those fourplexes.

SPEAKER_05

I think I I think honestly, direct mail is probably the best way to find those. I mean, I have a really personal, well-written letter, handwritten letter, direct mail to people. Um, would be a good way to do that. Or drop drop off, you know, a letter or whatever. That's probably the best way.

SPEAKER_04

This is I need to talk to you about um that place we went to go see last year or two years ago. He's doing really awesome. He was on to something um about building uh in that neighborhood, and those houses are selling really quick. I have no clue what you're doing. Remember, we went to Wisconsin? We went to Wisconsin last year. Yeah, yeah. And uh we you know, we talked about maybe investing. The only reason I bring that back up is because of what uh he was saying is the new construction uh seems to be selling a lot better because they can buy down points. But again, when is that is that all of a sudden gonna change? You know, somebody changes their marketing, then all of a sudden the rates drop and now it's not the same again.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, that's interesting. We we look, yeah, we looked at that deal out in Wisconsin. Did is he doing it himself? He never sold it.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, he's doing it himself.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, I mean we looked at it, I looked at the comps, and I'm like, the comps were terrible. And um, you know, selling new houses for 350 or 400 when the comps are at 200 to 250. I was like, I don't know how this is gonna work, you know. Um, but I didn't know the area that well. He was from that area, so he understood it. And um that's the kind of thing where like if you got local knowledge, you got conviction and confidence, because it's a lot of risk to take on. Uh this is a small, small development of new construction. Uh, it's a risky thing to do if you don't know the market and know what you're doing. So, which we we didn't. So, I'm glad we passed it. I'm glad I'm glad it's working out for him, though.

SPEAKER_04

So, my my I guess my point is is do we now look into a project where you're you're building something where you build a four-plex because everything seems to be cheaper, you know?

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, you could. I mean, I think that's a great idea building a new four, as long as it's you get a good deal on the land and you can build up build the property at a good cost basis. Um, that's really nice because then your maintenance costs are really low because it's new and you can get good tenants because it's new. So, yeah, that's a good idea, right?

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, I was just wondering, I just I'm kind of curious, and that that should be something to look in. Because again, we have that that spot up in um we have a property where we have a lot of land that butts up to a nursing home. That but there's still one more house that needs to be bought, and I still think we need to go after that too, because we can either put a small apartment there. I think there's there's a longer play there. I know that.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, but yeah, a couple triplexes or something there, possibly.

SPEAKER_04

All right, go ahead, Brady.

SPEAKER_00

I'm on the same block. I would do them on the same block. Now, what are you buying now? Four units, it was built in 1970, it's old shitty. Uh four units. That's all they built back in the 70s. They were building four units in the 80s. They're like, hey, let's build eight units. And then they built eights, and then they say, let's build 16. So you'll see them by age. Today they're only building 350 units. Uh so you'll see these big complexes going vertical. But uh that's what I would do. Now, is it fast money? No, it's just a little bit of drip. Uh your 30 grand's gonna earn them maybe 3,000 bucks a year. So you traded 30 grand for 3,000 bucks of income. And most people won't do that. They're like, I want my 30 grand. Your 30 grand is gonna be worth three grand here in the next 10 years. They're just gonna keep printing money. So you need to convert your cash, the 30k, into something more valuable. In this case, it was let's say uh 150,000 of real estate. 30 grand leverage, uh 20% down, about$150,000 property. The value of that property is gonna go up as they print money, but it's just a drip. You're only earning three grand a month. You're earning you know, two hundred and fifty dollars a month. You're like, this is not a deal. I traded 30 grand for 250 a month. I would do that trade, but most people watching this are gonna say$250 is nothing. So they won't do it. But you would never say just$250 because you you're a miser.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, so well, but he's right, like you're working, you're in$250 a month for doing a lot of work, you know, having a lot of a lot of pain in the butt kind of work. Like you've got to collect rent, you gotta chase your tenants for rent sometimes, you gotta fix problems, you gotta fix toilets, you gotta, and um, for$250 a month, there's like there's no way it's worth$250 a month to do all that work. But what you gotta look at it is you're controlling a piece of real estate that's worth a couple hundred thousand dollars, and it's gonna go up with inflation every year. So if inflation is three to five percent, two hundred thousand dollar property is gonna go up six thousand to ten thousand dollars a year, and in five years it is gonna up thirty to fifty thousand bucks just automatically without you, you know, you just have to manage it. But now in three to five years, you have and you've also paid the loan down. So now you've got equity in that property that you can then go redeploy into something bigger, and that's that's why you do it. You don't do it for the two the$250 a month, I would just put back into the property. I wouldn't even pay myself that. Um, I've learned over the years not to take any money out of rental properties because there's they always need fixes and upgrades and stuff. So I've never paid myself a dime for rental properties. You just use it for building wealth. But once you've got a little equity like that, you can go buy a little mobile home park or a self-storage facility that actually does cash flow pretty well. And um self-storage, you can buy five to ten percent down with SBA because it's a business. So that's a pretty good deal. Mobile home parks, I think, are a little tougher. I don't think you can get a low-down payment loan on mobile home parks that I'm aware of. So you get seller financing on them though.

SPEAKER_04

Um I think that's the more popular for that, isn't it?

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, go get seller financing or seller carry back, go get it, go get a bank loan at 70% and then do a seller carry back of 20%. So you're bringing 10% down. And a mobile home park, you'd be cash flow, you know. One mobile home park could replace your income. Um, if you're the one managing it. So, you know, you might need a$100,000 or$200,000 to do something like that. But then you might be able to just, you know, stop working at your job and just manage your mobile home park. Right. We'll see what else he's got to say.

SPEAKER_02

$250, if you save that over 30 years, invest it at a 7% return. That's over a million dollars.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah. So uh 12 bucks together.

SPEAKER_02

There you go, exactly.

SPEAKER_00

So that's why he's going to Korea for the goddamn card.

SPEAKER_01

So what do you think is the biggest risk? A really scary truth is just how vulnerable your digital life is. And most people have no idea until it's too late, and then they're stuck spending several hours trying to solve a problem that they did not create. So don't bomb it slash iced.

SPEAKER_02

So what do you think is the biggest risk to housing prices over the next few years?

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, that's I think the biggest risk is that uh, you know, the the baby boomer dies. Uh don't they then pass off their wealth? Yeah, they're gonna pass it off. They're gonna pass it. The three of us uh we're brothers. Uh and our our parents die. The last parent dies, and their home is in Treeport, Louisiana, and we get the notice. You live in LA, you live in Las Vegas, and I live in Miami. Oh my god, he died. Okay, we go in, we see the wheel, you guys get to split the house. He has no other no other assets. You do you want to move to Treeport and live in the house? I will not. Do you want to live in Iowa? Largest sell it. Flying roaches in the world. Live in Trueport. How do you know that? Because I I lived in Louisiana. Okay. You know, I dated a girl there. So and she came with roaches, by the way. It was worth it.

SPEAKER_06

Oh my gosh.

SPEAKER_00

But um and we're gonna be like, dude, what's the housework? Okay. We haven't we haven't even buried our father yet. We're like, what's the housework? Somebody says, uh, maybe 200. Okay. The housing market sucks right now. Uh so we're gonna list it. And one of you guys is gonna get, you know, like uh I got time. No problem, guys. Whenever it sells, I'm fine. And then you got you guys are like sell it. Uh drop the price. Uh we're gonna have a phone call a month later. Hey guys, drop the price. You you and me are gonna be like, just drop the price, right? 'C to you it's found money. Uh we have no emotional connection or attachment to the house. We're not living in it, it's getting degraded. The kitchen's old, the the ceilings are bad, the real estate agent that got the listing is now gonna tell you, oh my god, you need to paint it. Uh you need to take all the furniture out, we need to re reset it up, we need to refurnish it. All that's gonna cost money, guys. It's gonna be six thousand dollars to do that. Every all the three of us need to each come up with two grand, and you're like, hey, fuck it. Sell the fucking house. Just sell it. That's my biggest concern. So you're gonna have tens of millions of people all dying in a period of 12 months. Okay, we got 10,000 baby boomers dropping out of the workforce every day. Then you're gonna have them drop in all hidden in there.

SPEAKER_05

Sounds very morbid. Jeez. We have that many people dying. Where are all these people dying?

SPEAKER_04

And how are these houses not coming on the market? I mean, this is unreal.

SPEAKER_05

Well, I was just gonna say, like I wanted to just another home goes USA pitch. This is a most of what we deal with is houses like this that he's describing. And uh it's it's houses where somebody lived there for 50 years and they're moving to assisted living or they passed away or something happened. The kids might have it, or the you know, maybe the the person that moved to assisted living is still alive, but they're not caring for it anymore. And uh, I mean, we get a lot of houses like this, don't we? Would you say, James, this is over half our business, probably?

SPEAKER_04

Well, yeah, I mean but it it's it's not the way he's saying it.

SPEAKER_05

Well, he's saying they're gonna list it for sale on the market, but which I think sometimes they do, but what we find is that left himself don't want to list it for sale on the market because uh there's just a lot of problems.

SPEAKER_04

Like somebody may have died in the house or somebody was disabled in the house and real it comes back to what we do uh with our business is we take care of everything for them, they don't want to clean out all of mom's stuff. Like this example that he gave, you know, no one wants to go all the way there to clean out the house when oh shoot, if it's worth 200, you're gonna give me 80,000 for it. You take the damn thing. All right, it's done. You know, I didn't have to worry about anything.

SPEAKER_05

He's talking about them listing the house. I think what we've found, at least in in our market, I think a lot of others, is that these people will call one or two or three real estate agents, have them go out to the house, and then agents will come back and say, Okay, well, you gotta clean up the house, get this fixed, get that fixed, get it cleaned up, get it painted, get the lawn mode, the brush trim back, and then I'll list it for you. Give me a call back when it's all done, and I'll throw it on the market for you for six percent commission. And uh they'll get they'll hear that three times, and they'll be like, uh, you know, none of us even live anywhere near this state, and uh, we don't want to do any of that. Like, yeah, we can fly out there and deal with all that, but it's not worth our time to do it. And then, you know, then they talk to a company like ours, and we say, Well, we'll just buy it right now, we'll take care of everything. You know, we'll just buy it from you, send you a check, cash closing, and uh we'll we'll just do everything. Like, you don't want to deal with any of this. So that's you know, that's where a lot of our business comes from. Is that exactly the situation? People always ask, like, well, why would why would somebody sell a house for less than it's worth? Well, because it's in a situation like that, it's they can't get the retail value out of it because of the situation. Uh they'd have to put a lot of effort and money into it to get there, and they don't want to. Right. So that's the that's the service we offer.

SPEAKER_00

Go ahead, Bruce. Their 90s, drop it, just dying. Or they don't die, they go to senior housing, yeah, or they go to dementia. I can't remember myself who I am. I don't remember any of the great things I've done in life. I don't remember any of the interviews we did together. Grant Cardone forgot that he's Grant Cardone, right? And and um Bruce Willis. It's terrible. It's terrible, dude. Like it, but it's gonna happen it could happen to me or you, you know, or our parents. And so nobody cares about the house anymore. That that guts single family homes. The other part that concerns me is the the guys that are your age uh don't really want uh this responsibility that you have, this acre here. So you got 75 million baby boomers that have no interest in home housing. They're dying off. They're not going to buy a new house. That's zero. They're gonna spend less money here in the last 25 years of their life than they spent at any other period in their life. They're not spenders, they're not travelers, they're not gonna fix the house, they're not going to a Costco or Home Depot to you know put on a new look. They're not buying new furniture, they don't need it, they don't want any changes. So you got that third that's dying out, and you got the bottom third entering in that doesn't really want to own that home.

SPEAKER_02

What's the flip side to that? Is there a bullish case where maybe AI makes things so deflation?

SPEAKER_04

Do they not want to own the home because they just don't want to be homeowners? Or is this the whole new like technical tech thing where you know they live in the new world?

SPEAKER_05

He was saying that these younger people, like these guys, these guys, I mean, I think these guys must be they're not that young. These guys look like they're mid-30s, maybe. Uh, maybe even upper 30s, I don't know. But they're this they're like the how old do you think these guys are? 30?

SPEAKER_04

I think they're in their 20s for crying out loud.

SPEAKER_05

This Graham Stevens guy is like a multi-millionaire. He's got a he's had a pretty long career already. He's got to be at least in his 30s. Is he up to him? Um, yeah, I don't think he's no, he's not in his 20s. There's no way. Now he may not have kids, so he looks younger than he actually is.

SPEAKER_03

He is 34 years old.

SPEAKER_05

Thank you. I think that both these guys are mid-30s, I'm pretty sure. I don't know if they have kids or not, but this is that I'm 44, and the people that are just a little bit younger than me, this millennial generation, like mid-30s, upper 40s, are millennials, and I'm like more Gen X. Um, they're they have a different philosophy about everything in life. And the what Grant is saying is that those people don't want to have responsibility of owning homes. I think what he what he's what he means is they don't want to have a responsibility of owning like these types of homes that these older people have, like these, you know, a house on an acre lot that's you know a big house that needs a lot of maintenance and a lot of yard work and a lot of different things. I think these younger people want to have easier, easier places. And I think a lot of them are probably yeah, they're okay renting and move around and experiencing life. Well, right.

SPEAKER_04

They want the experience.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, so I think I think partly what he's part of what he's saying is true, um, but it's pretty general. Like, is it really true that nobody in the younger generations wants a house on an acre and a half of land? I mean, I don't know. I guess I'm 44, I definitely do, but maybe people that are 10 years younger than me have no issues. No, I just I can't speak to that.

SPEAKER_04

Like can you hear me?

SPEAKER_05

Yeah. Yeah.

SPEAKER_04

Okay, so um can you hear me? Yeah, I can hear you the whole time I can hear you. Yep. I don't know if you can hear me. I it the Yeah, yeah, you're good. It it it flinched and then I'm like, or flickered, and I'm like, what the heck? Um I don't have something in my my head. Oh, the one of the other things that uh he he he's didn't say, and I don't know if he's still gonna say, but the the co-living that's becoming more of a thing. So, you know, people aren't necessarily wanting their own houses. There's there's three generations in one house now.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah. I think if you look at the economic situation, that's probably it's probably more the economic situation, more than younger people don't want in a here half a land and a big house. Like they may just not be able to afford to do that, you know. It might be more the situation because they just they don't have the same economic opportunities that these older generations had, I don't think. It doesn't seem like they do. And um, you know, how was well we lost James James bailed.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, that's interesting. We'll see if he joins back in or not. I think it's I think his internet was a lot of internet problems. He kept like kind of half freezing, but then his audio would still kind of work. You know, as a as a young person, I will say, I personally am very interested in having a property that's holding bigger than an acre. You know, I don't I don't need a massive house. Yeah, having a little bit of space to live on, I'm very interested.

SPEAKER_05

I think it's a little like he's talking about like the like these guys are like urban millennials that live in big cities, right? Yeah, I mean, probably those guys want to live in a condo or something, you know. But that's not everybody. That disgusts me just thinking about that. I have zero interest in doing that. Exactly. It really depends on who you are, where you're from. I'm from a small town in North Dakota. Like, I don't want to live in a big city, right?

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, I'm from Lakeville, which is generally big suburbs in small cities, and I'm like, I'm I'm done. I'm good, I'm ready to be out.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah. No, so I think it's he's definitely overgeneralizing, but I think there is there is something to do with the economics of it where you know, like my in-laws have a house on two acres that's probably worth 700 grand now. You know, is some young couple gonna buy that house? Like, probably not. It's probably gonna have to be somebody like a couple with kids in their 40s or 50s because they're gonna have to have some money to buy that house.

SPEAKER_04

Oh, I just realized that they're and they're not exactly why are you gonna spend money and be close to a road or something like that? That that kind of oh, they're not that bad. They're they're down in the valley.

SPEAKER_05

You can't even see the road from or hear it from where they're in.

SPEAKER_04

Okay, so that's that's good.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, but all right, but what about that guy? They were they were also a couple with kids when they bought it, so it's you know, they were in their 40s probably, or low low upper 30s, low 40s, and then whoever buys it will probably be in their upper 30s or low 40s with kids. So like, no, I don't I don't foresee this whole idea that no one's gonna buy that house. But that's the house he's talking about. He's on a couple acres of land, needs a lot of work, a lot of maintenance. It's a big house, you know, a few thousand square feet. Um so yeah, there's still people that want to buy those houses, like guaranteed. Um, I'd like to see a chart that shows like what to you know, he's talking about these baby boomers passing away. Like, what does that look like over the next 10 years? Is there like a peak when that when that's expected to happen? We should probably maybe you can pull up a chart later, Brady, and throw it in here of when the uh peak baby boomer um deaths will be. Because that could affect the housing market. Um we haven't seen it affect it yet.

SPEAKER_04

Okay, what is that? What's the baby boomer? 50 to 65?

SPEAKER_05

Oh no, they're old, they're older than that.

SPEAKER_04

No, no, no, no, no. The years that they were born.

SPEAKER_05

Oh, the years?

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, I believe that is pretty accurate.

SPEAKER_05

46 to 64.

SPEAKER_04

The 64, okay. And then Gen X starts at 65.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04

So, I mean, my dad, I mean, they're all 70s. I mean, he's right. There is gonna be a point. It's like World War II people, but they're not all in one spot, guys. It's not like you're gonna see, are you gonna see a big hole, or maybe you're gonna see a hole in Florida? I don't know.

SPEAKER_05

Well, I think Florida you could. I mean, there's a lot of seniors down here.

SPEAKER_04

I mean, are we looking like let's just do the timing, right? And let's put it like, hey, what is it? Men are 76, 77 years old, women. I think you're in the 80s now that that that they live. So let's just call it like 78 on average. When is 78 gonna be hitting for all these baby boomers? What year is that?

SPEAKER_05

So that's what we got chart here. The chart shows increasing, it's just increasing um through the 2020s and 2030s, and then it gets to a peak around 2040 to 2050. So it's still quite a ways out, if that's the case. Exactly.

SPEAKER_04

You know, so I mean I think most of these guys are still these baby boomers are staying in their houses. It's like anytime the the anybody tries to predict anything, they they go the opposite. They thought all these guys were gonna come out of their houses. Actually, some of them did, and then they realized, wait a minute, I don't want to live next to you know, this close to anybody. Any I lived in a house in the woods for a reason, right? So they're still going, what the hell do I want to live? I think what they're trying to do is they're trying to like our house is set up. We can get old at this place, and I never have to worry about stairs.

SPEAKER_05

I think most people just want to do that, they want to be in a house that they is theirs, they've lived in for years, and just stay there until they die. Like, why would you want to go somewhere else? You know, right. Sometimes they have to go somewhere else because they get dementia and they can't um stay where they're at. Right. That's that's medical reasons, you know.

SPEAKER_04

All right, Brady, let's try to finish. Uh I think we got a little bit left here, and then uh I know we have around a little time.

SPEAKER_05

If you could, Brady, throw in a find a good chart on the um US death rate over the next 30 years and see if you can see where it peaks out. That'd be a really good thing to throw in here to see if it if it lines up with what he's saying at all.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, I'll throw that on the screen for the uh in that.

SPEAKER_05

That's a good idea. Thank you.

SPEAKER_04

Yep. Right.

SPEAKER_03

And interest rates go low.

SPEAKER_04

I think we're pretty much done. Are we just done here?

SPEAKER_05

Are we just let's let's roll it some more and see.

unknown

Okay.

SPEAKER_02

Wow, everyone like what's the flip side to that? Man, I don't see it. Do you think everyone at some point is probably going to live in a big multifamily because that's all that they could afford?

SPEAKER_00

I think because they're going to it's a more desirable population is in 20 top 20 cities. You know, uh 80 percent of America lives east of the Mississippi River. Uh, only 20 percent lives on this side of the world or the United States. Uh top 20 cities control most of the population. So we don't have a shortage of housing in this country. There's no shortage. That's just a lie. That's a complete lie. There's uh there's I think there's uh 11 or 12 percent of the single family housing supply is abandoned homes or empty. Uh there's no there absolutely is no housing shortage. There's another 12 percent of uh multifamily that is vacant right now today, maybe l maybe higher than that. We got we got multifamily have with the highest occupancy we've that I've seen in probably 20 years. So you have probably somewhere between four and a half million single family homes and maybe uh five million multifamily that are vacant right now, somebody can move into. So, like Trump sent somebody to my office uh uh three three and a half weeks ago and said, What would you do? I said, I would give an incentive uh to all the vacancy in this country to occupy that house.

SPEAKER_04

If you have a vacant home, nobody's living um I didn't want to jump on this too much, but I think some of the the the some of the major problems with those vacant houses is uh the city bureaucracy, the the the stuff that you have to go around. If you have a an empty lot or a building that is in a certain category in Minneapolis or St. Paul, it is almost damn near impossible to get that thing out of where it needs to be. And that's where I believe where the hiccup is. I can almost guarantee we can't be the only city it's a pain in the ass to work in, right?

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, that could be some of it. I think some of it too. They was talking about like Florida has you know three million vacant houses or whatever. Like there's always this like um zombie houses in Florida. It's such a ridiculous thing to say because I'm like, well, yeah, those are called snowbirds, you know. That's what they live up north and they have houses in the south. Like, that's not a zombie house. Somebody's doing that on purpose, you know. They'll be back, they're gonna come back every winter, guaranteed. So, but it's always on the news like three million zombie houses in Florida. I'm like, people do this on purpose, guys. Um, now are those vacant houses that somebody can move into? Not really, because those people are gonna come back in the winter. So they're they they sit empty for half the year, and the other half the year they they get used. And um, so there's a lot of a lot of this vacant stuff is their vacation people's second homes, vacation homes, also would be would be called vacant houses. Um, I mean, some people have two or three or four houses. So then, you know, and they don't rent them out, they just use them for their own purposes and they don't ever rent them out. Those are all vacant houses. Are they gonna change? Like, will they start renting them out? I think if you he talked about giving people incentives to rent them out, and like California has a lot of vacant homes that are second or third houses for people. But I think California started doing something with property taxes, they they have a vacant house tax that they levy on you now. So I think you have to have something like that where you actually are charging a higher tax rate for these empty houses. Um, that would be more of an incentive than you know, obviously they're not financially motivated because they aren't renting them out. But people don't like having to pay extra taxes. I know that.

SPEAKER_04

So that can be I think the biggest thing when we do these reaction videos, and what we're probably just gonna wrap it up here, too. Um is we watch these videos and it looks like they're on a hole, right? They're like the whole United States, or these this is what's happening. And I want to think the best thing that we've learned, and but the best thing that we've probably taught people is stop and go in your area, understand what's happening in your area, not everywhere. Now you can see trends, right? You can see, like, hey, if it happens in California or Florida, and it typically moves in, but you I everybody has to do their own homework. Yeah, we even talked a little bit about um that one property that we turned down, but this guy knew more about it, and he he did very well and made some good money on it because he knew his area, yeah. So that's the biggest thing I can tell you. Whether you're um own a flipping business, you're you're you're you're looking to get into this, is know your area. You're gonna achieve, you're gonna be successful way more. Again, I know there's a lot of people that do this virtual stuff. You can do virtual, virtual's not gonna be around forever. Again, you can get better deals in your area, know your area. So uh that's probably the biggest take that I've been getting off of most of the stuff that we do is we can't just go by grant going, oh, this is this sucks right here. Well, yeah, it might suck where he's at.

SPEAKER_05

Like well, he's making a lot of generalizations, generalizations based on his personal life experience. You know, this idea that everyone's gonna live in multifamily buildings, probably in Miami where he lives, that might be true. Like, you know, if you want to live in Miami, you're gonna live in a multifamily building, probably. Right. Um, it makes sense, but like is that gonna be true in Bismarck, North Dakota, where I'm from? Are people gonna live in apartment buildings in Bismarck? No, there's no way. None of those people want to live in apartment buildings. So I don't I don't foresee that happening. And even Minnesota, like, there's plenty of land in Minnesota, it's not that expensive. Um, people want to live in houses. I don't know a single person that is aspiring to go move into a multifamily 350-unit apartment building, especially at an older age. Um, no, I'm not seeing that. But yeah, my he talks about the top 20 cities. Like, yeah, if you're looking at Miami, LA, Seattle, New York City, if that's where you want to live and that's where you want to operate, then what he's saying is pretty true, probably.

SPEAKER_04

But we can disagree. Uh I mean, obviously, this guy's a pretty smart guy, and and uh um again, just he's generalizing everything, and it I it makes for great conversation, right?

SPEAKER_05

Um yeah, he's talking top 20 cities, and he also talked like mostly east of Mississippi. Um I didn't realize half the population or 80% of the population was east of Mississippi. That was news to me. There's some big cities.

SPEAKER_04

I want to go look that up.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, I looked that up too. That doesn't quite seem right, but it might be. It might be. I mean, the western part of the country is pretty desolate. You don't have you still have big cities, but there's no the the rural areas are empty in the western half of the United States. They're just empty. So where you like you look at the southeast, like in Tennessee and Kentucky and stuff, there's people everywhere. You know, Ohio, like they're everywhere.

SPEAKER_04

Like just because you're not talking about them spread out, you're talking about people are everywhere.

SPEAKER_05

Like the whole state is covered in people, it's not just in big cities, right? Because you have farms and stuff, farms and homesteads and different things, like they're all over the the whole state. If you go to like Nevada, like people are not all over Nevada.

SPEAKER_04

No, I guess two cities. Okay, so what what was the migration, right? You know, everybody moved here, and then they they kind of lived in cities, and then they they went back out to build on the farms, and then farmers kind of left because technology, so they build factories, and then they needed to have a a bunch of factories, workers for them to go to, so they build a uh multi, you know uh apartment complex, or I I I do I see that. I see that you know, when we were in Europe a few years ago, you know, everything is more is buildings. You go to Norway, multifamily countries, but they're all jammed in a little bit. You know, we have a lot of urban, urban, yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_05

Yeah, urban multifamily makes sense. Um, I think the West doesn't have, you know, there's no there's not much farming in the West. Like you look at like Nevada and Utah and Colorado, like there's not it doesn't rain enough to have farms there. So you don't have the uh grows on rock. That yeah, I mean stand and rock doesn't grow, especially without rain. But if you fly over, like I remember flying over Iowa one time and looking down at night, and like there's a a yard light like every quarter mile through the entire state. The entire state of Iowa has a yard light, like so that's how many houses are in the middle of Iowa, because Iowa is a very fertile farmland and it rains a lot. So you've got people all over the state of Iowa. So it's just yeah, that's you know, it's just different. It depends on what part of the country you're in. But um, yeah, I think I would agree with him on big cities. Uh, I would disagree on anything outside of big cities.

SPEAKER_04

All right, so all right, guys. Um, if you like the the content, uh if you like Jaden and I just rambling on, uh we're pretty good, pretty good guys. And uh if you want to know more, um uh talk about this, talk about uh Home Guys franchise, um, like us, look us up, and uh yeah, let's talk. And uh I guess we always gotta say it, Jaden. We made the mistakes, so you don't have to. Thanks, everybody.