Is Las Vegas the First Housing Market to Crack?

Is Las Vegas headed for a housing market exodus? In this reaction video, Jaden and James from the Jaden and James Real Estate Podcast break down Nick Gurley’s Reventure Consulting analysis on the rapidly changing Las Vegas real estate market.

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Las Vegas home sales have fallen dramatically from pandemic highs, with 2025 sales volume down 42% from the peak and reaching the lowest level since 2007. At the same time, home prices have doubled over the last seven years but are now showing signs of weakness, including a recent 2.4% year-over-year decline.

Jaden and James discuss whether Las Vegas could be a leading indicator for a broader housing market slowdown, especially because the city’s economy is heavily tied to tourism, entertainment, leisure spending, and service-sector jobs. With visitor numbers dropping, costs rising, and tourists pushing back against resort fees and inflated pricing, the hosts examine whether Las Vegas real estate is entering a fragile phase.

They also compare Las Vegas to more diversified markets like Minneapolis and Atlanta, explaining why local market knowledge matters more than national headlines. While they acknowledge major warning signs, they also explain why today’s market may not look like the 2008 crash, especially when it comes to foreclosure risk, buyer credit quality, and down payment strength.

If you’re a buyer, seller, investor, or real estate professional watching the housing market, this episode breaks down what the Las Vegas slowdown could mean for the rest of the country.

Topics covered in this video:

Las Vegas housing market 2025
 Las Vegas real estate market update
 Housing market crash warning signs
 Nick Gurley Reventure Consulting reaction
 Las Vegas home sales decline
 Tourism slowdown and real estate
 Are people leaving Las Vegas?
 Foreclosure risk in 2025
 Local real estate market trends
 Minneapolis vs Las Vegas housing market
 Atlanta vs Las Vegas housing market
 Why knowing your market matters

Watch the full reaction and let us know in the comments: do you think Las Vegas is a warning sign for the national housing market, or is this just a local correction?

#LasVegasRealEstate #HousingMarket2025 #RealEstatePodcast #JadenAndJames #HousingMarketCrash #LasVegasHousingMarket #RealEstateInvesting #ReventureConsulting #NickGurley #HousingMarketUpdate #RealEstateNews

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Transcript

SPEAKER_03 0:11

A massive migration exodus has started from Las Vegas' housing market. And concerningly, Las Vegas is now flashing the same warnings it did in 2006-2007 before it experienced the worst housing crash in U.S. history.

SPEAKER_00 0:27

Vegas is a tourist economy that's based on casinos. The economy is super fragile. If there's some sort of restraction that affects the Vegas tourism economy, which it will, the Vegas housing market can fall off a cliff real quick.

SPEAKER_01 0:56

I know you're the lightning, you're down there in the lightning, and they're still in the playoffs.

SPEAKER_00 1:01

Yeah, my wife watches them a lot. I don't, I just they're they're on TV all the time. I catch some of it.

SPEAKER_01 1:05

Exactly. Nothing wrong with that, though. Hockey's awesome. The wild.

SPEAKER_00 1:10

So uh this is uh Nick Gurley with uh Reventure Consulting. I hope I hope I pronounced his name right. He's pretty well known in um real estate uh analysis. So I think his background is in analytical stuff for real estate companies, and he's got some some different apps and stuff he does, but he he's a pretty knowledgeable guy. He uh tends to be more on the Doomer side of things. Most of his videos are kind of Doomer type videos. Um take that with you know for what it is. He's this will almost certainly be a negative video, but um he does have good information. You just have to kind of realize it's uh it's a little bit tilted towards the doomer side because that gets I think more flex for him. So let's see what he has to say.

SPEAKER_01 1:50

Yeah, I want to see if I I guess what I want to do is I want to try to not debunk it a little bit, but just find maybe the positive of not just looking at the negative. So yeah, that's for sure.

SPEAKER_00 1:58

I I watch his videos because it's good information and context, but it's it's kind of like one side of the coin, I would say. So go ahead and play it.

SPEAKER_03 2:06

A massive migration exodus has started from Las Vegas' housing market. And concerningly, Las Vegas is now flashing the same warnings it did in 2006-2007 before it experienced the worst housing crash in U.S. history. With Las Vegas home prices dropping as 2025 sales hit the lowest level since 2007. You can see these sales volumes in Vegas are now down 42% from the pandemic peak and are literally at the lowest level in nearly the last 20 years. Now, many people in Las Vegas aren't yet aware that this is happening. Many local realtors, many local mortgage brokers, and many local real estate investors still think the market is hot. They still say things like, all the people from California are moving in to buy houses. However, that's clearly not happening anymore. And what we can now see is that home values in Vegas are officially going down on a year-over-year basis. They've dropped 2.4% over the last 12 months. However, these values are still near a record level. They've doubled in the last seven years.

SPEAKER_01 3:21

So this is what we talked about before. I think we talked about this in uh Florida. How much of this is COVID-related? We're we're gonna surge in, pay over inflation, inflated prices, and now everything's now gonna come back basically even and basically settle in.

SPEAKER_00 3:41

Yeah, I think it's like if you look at this chart, like anyone that bought in the peak COVID years probably is gonna lose money, you know, most likely. So that'd be go back to like 2021, 22. You know, anyone from 2021, 22 through now, their house likely will lose some value, I would guess. Um but anybody that owned before that is gonna be just fine. Like if you bought in 20, say 2018, like geez, you've got a lot of equity sitting there. Do you really care if the market drops 20%? I mean, you probably care a little bit, but it it probably looks like a fake market to you anyway. You know, that's how it is down here in Florida. Like, I don't think people that lived here thought that any of the prices were real anyway. You know, it's like, yeah, these ridiculous COVID prices that need to go back to what they were before, you know.

SPEAKER_01 4:26

That's I still think we're we we gotta wait till probably a couple more years before everything really settles and gets away from that year.

SPEAKER_00 4:34

It should get back to you, like really should get back to like 2019 pricing, and then just add in three percent inflation per year from 2019 pricing. And then if you dig to draw a line from 2019, 3% a year, and see where that ends, and that's where it's that's where the prices need to get to. That's what needs to happen. And maybe they're you know, if you did that draw drew that line, maybe they need to come down a hundred grand in in Las Vegas still.

SPEAKER_01 4:58

Because what I would like to, I was wondering how many of those are gonna, if it's actually gonna be foreclosures, or if those are cash deals that they're just losing money on.

SPEAKER_00 5:07

Yeah, it's hard to know. I don't know the Vegas housing market that well. Um, I just know the housing market in general, like most of the houses that were bought were bought with pretty good credit on good mortgages with good down payments. So people are less likely to walk away from them. Um like in 05 and 06, they none of that stuff was true. They were bought with bad credit, no money down, terrible loans. And as soon as the houses were worth less than they paid for them, people had no incentive to keep paying the mortgage. So they just walked away from them. So I don't think you assuming Vegas is the same as Florida and the rest of the country and they were good loans. I don't I don't foresee that you'd have a lot of foreclosures. Because even if the house is worth less than someone paid for, like, well, if they put money down into it and they were have good credit, they don't want to get ruined, they're not gonna get foreclosed on, you know, because they don't want to destroy their credit and stuff.

SPEAKER_01 6:02

Yeah, they can still live there. It's a matter of now they're forced to live there versus moving back to California or something.

SPEAKER_00 6:07

Or they rent it out to somebody and just I mean, I know I know people even in the OA crisis that had houses in Vegas and Utah and stuff that way overpaid for the houses and they moved because of jobs, and they just rented them out for a loss every month that covered the loss for years, probably 10 years, you know, because they didn't want to have their credit affected. And then after 10 years, the house was worth more than they paid for it. You know, they just you gotta wait it out. But that's what you did. So I don't know, Vegas. I think Vegas, if Vegas has some problem with the like the casino economy, which they could, uh, then there could be a lot of foreclosures because people just lose their source of income. Right, you know, and so that economy down there is pretty fragile, very fragile.

SPEAKER_01 6:47

Well, it's all transit, isn't it? It's mostly transit, isn't it?

SPEAKER_00 6:52

Transi well, transient, yeah. It's like it's a tourism casino business. So as soon as there's you know some huge problem with the economy where people aren't traveling or people don't have money to go to casinos, like Vegas gets crushed. Like Vegas drops off a cliff when things happen to the economy. So it is really a volatile housing market. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 7:16

Hey, we probably need to continue playing it here.

SPEAKER_02 7:19

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SPEAKER_03 7:56

It's just unaffordable for the local Vegas residents to buy a house, and that's why the demand is so low. One of those factors would be a slowing and potentially even declining economy. In the last 12 months, the number of people taking trips to Las Vegas has plummeted, with Las Vegas seeing a sharp visitor drop as leisure spending wanes.

SPEAKER_00 8:22

So I the I've seen some videos in Vegas and I experienced this myself that Vegas really pushed this charging people money for everything and raising prices on everything to where it's really expensive. I was there a couple years ago and it was ridiculous. Like lunch is like 60 bucks, like everywhere. Anything you do is like just it's two to three times more expensive than what you would be used to paying anywhere else. And um, it feels like Disney World now.

SPEAKER_01 8:48

Vegas feels like Disney World, like you go there, they're just they they made it, they made it so you can bring your family. It used to be only adults go there, and as soon as they made it, where hey, bring your kids, and your kids can go play video games while you gamble. Um, you know, hey, then you can go back up to the room. Parents can still sneak down to the the casino and still still play. So that's what's changed, is you know, it used to be I'm going to Vegas and you didn't go to Vegas until you were 21, right?

SPEAKER_00 9:18

Yeah, it's I mean it's just crazy. I remember going when I was 21, I we went down there and it was cheap. You could go have a good time in Vegas, it was cheap to fly down there, it was cheap to stay. We had a hotel room for like 29 bucks a night or something like that, right? It was I do remember that it was like 49 bucks a night, and because you're you just need a bed, you're there to spend the money uh in a decent hotel, and it wasn't like uh super nice, but it was good enough. And we we could go get um like foot long hot dog, a foot long hot dog and a high nick for like two bucks. Um, it was ridiculous how cheap things were, you know. You can buy t-shirts on the strip for nine dollars or five dollars, or and then like this last time I was down there, and like gosh, I think I was there for like two days. I spent like 600 bucks just walking around, you know. So I think anyway, I was watching these videos on on YouTube about this, and they're saying these guys that live in Vegas are saying that there's way less people, way less tour tourists there because it's so expensive. And um, these have these resort, like you'll get a$200 a night hotel room, and then they have a hundred dollar a night resort fees for parking and room service and whatever else they're doing, and they're just like it's people are tired of being extorted, and um, with inflation being as bad as it is, people either don't have the money to spend it down there or they don't want to anymore. So I think Vegas is at risk of um having some problems, but you know, I guess we'll see what happens.

SPEAKER_03 10:41

Right. Reuters, they say that Las Vegas posted its sharpest annual visitor drop since 1970, excluding the pandemic in 2025. Las Vegas drew about 3.5 million fewer visitors in 2025, compared to a 7.5% drop from 2024, its sharpest decline outside the pandemic since record keeping began in 1970. Vegas is a city powered by leisure spending. In addition, passenger traffic in 2025 fell about 6% at Harry Reid Airport. This is pocket. I never go anywhere with that.

SPEAKER_00 11:16

That's that may not sound like 7% may not sound like much. With um 7% may not sound like much, but when like your that's your entire economy that just went down by 7% in a year, that's like really a big deal, you know. Now they they probably are extracting more money out of the people that are there, so they're like the total revenue probably didn't go down seven percent. But anyone that's making money on like just the volume of visitors there probably noticed their income went down last year. And I was gonna say in Florida here, I noticed that we're seeing a lot of advertisements for Disney World and Universal Studios now, which we never saw before, and they're advertising their local residents to go there, which tells me that they're they're hurting a little bit for visitors. Um, and I heard I've heard a couple stories about that from different people that some of those theme parks are not very busy anymore now.

SPEAKER_01 12:05

So they were really busy when I was there.

SPEAKER_00 12:08

Yeah, I'm like every time I go, it's busy, but you know, but they do these deals for locals and stuff when they don't have enough people, they'll start giving um local residents really great deals to go. And so it's I think it's always gonna be kind of busy. But some of the people that are there are paying way less money to be there than than you might be. Right. So, but yeah, I've seen a lot of those deals that we haven't seen for years um to get locals to go to those parks again. So there's yeah, I think people are traveling less, spending less money, you know. All the COVID money is gone now after five, six years, you know. People have to have to start saving money again, you know.

SPEAKER_01 12:43

Just stop for a second. It's been six years since we thought the end of the world was gonna happen.

SPEAKER_00 12:49

Thank God, let's not do that again.

SPEAKER_01 12:53

You just stop and think for a second. Of course, we were there on the beach uh um Fort Myers Beach when they shut it down, and it was so weird. I mean, it was like it was the end of the world, wasn't it? I mean, that was at all.

SPEAKER_00 13:10

I like to not think about it too much. I had three little kids when COVID happened. It was my life was already very difficult. COVID definitely did not help.

SPEAKER_03 13:18

All right, go ahead, Brady. December traffic dropping 10.3 percent. Now, this travel slowdown is particularly problematic for Las Vegas because a disproportionate share of its economy works in travel and tourism-related service industries, like at restaurants, casinos, sports and entertainment. So when fewer people are coming to Vegas, that means less money being spent, less tips being generated, and more people out of work and looking for money. You can see here that Las Vegas has the highest percentage of service jobs in its local economy of any metro. 38.6% of its jobs are in the service industry. That's 430,000 jobs. You can see that's even higher than Orlando at number two, and it's way higher than Miami at number three. So Vegas is on another tier when it comes to its exposure to the service sector in the US.

SPEAKER_00 14:13

Now, yeah, I don't I think we get the gist of it. It's Vegas. Vegas is a tourist economy that's based on casinos, the economy is super fragile. There's there isn't much else in Vegas that I'm aware of, though. There's a there's some military bases in the area, but that doesn't drive a whole lot of economic activity. Um, so yeah, Vegas is really if there's some sort of recession that affects the Vegas tourism economy, which it will, uh the Vegas housing market can fall off a cliff real quick. So again, I feel like this is kind of like California. Does that what does that mean for the rest of the country? I don't know.

SPEAKER_01 14:45

I don't know if it means anything because again, it's uh it's it's Vegas and it's it's not like you you it's it's not like Minneapolis and Atlanta, you know, they could be alike, right? You know, it's because of the cities are roughly the same sizes and stuff.

SPEAKER_00 15:00

Um they have diverse economies. Atlanta and Minneapolis have very diversified economies in many different sectors, a lot of jobs. And I mean, if you took like the biggest sector in Minneapolis, like they just showed 40% of people working in the tourism sector in Vegas. The biggest sector in Minneapolis, I mean, maybe it's healthcare at like eight percent or something like that. There isn't one sector that's really dominant in Minneapolis, it's just a lot of different things. So there's it's a very resilient economy, and Atlanta is too. So you're not gonna see the one thing I would say about Vegas, though, like in 08, Vegas was one of the first markets that dropped off a cliff. So it is kind of a leading indicator, I think.

SPEAKER_01 15:38

Well, is it a leading indicator because of um people don't have the money where they're at because their their houses went up, they had a fixed uh or a um adjustable mortgage rate, and then all of a sudden, I mean they had to get the the all the hospitality stuff, uh having fun, going on vacation, they had to get rid of that, and they had to put the money for it.

SPEAKER_00 15:56

Vegas could yeah, it could be a leading indicator of just recession for the whole country.

SPEAKER_01 16:00

Yeah, I mean that's where I can see that. I agree with you.

SPEAKER_00 16:03

What's the first thing you're gonna stop spending money on? Going to Vegas is gonna be pretty high in the list of not spending money on something if you don't have the money to spend. So, yeah, I think you might see it there. And then if you know, if we go to the recession and Vegas is the first red flag, then okay, well, it'd affect the rest of the country too, but it it won't affect the rest of the country as bad it was like Vegas could drop 40% or something. Is Minneapolis gonna drop 40%? No, it didn't in 2008 either.

SPEAKER_01 16:27

So yeah, so I mean I I again I think it's a funny it's a fun video to listen to and watch. Again, it's uh I don't think you can have it really start, you know. You can read into it as much as you want to, but I yeah, I agree with you.

SPEAKER_00 16:42

Yeah, there'll be certain cities that uh if we do have a recession and a housing, a bit of a housing crash, there'll be some cities that will be extreme with it, and Vegas would be one potential one. Uh, I think Cape Core, Florida is a high potential for that. Um Austin, Texas seems to be like drop quite a bit too. So there's a couple of cities around the country that will be will be in the YouTube because it'll there'll be the extreme cases, you know, of of price drops. But the rest of the stream won't be extreme.

SPEAKER_01 17:09

But the best advice is I keep saying is know your area around, you know. Yeah, know your market because everybody wants to like try to jam their all. This is what the national average is. Well, maybe your market's a little bit different. I mean, and you if you know that, then you can well, first of all, you can be the expert in your area. Um so why not?

SPEAKER_00 17:33

Yeah, and if you look at a market like Minneapolis where the house prices are based on people's incomes and um they don't move that much every year, they basically move with people's incomes every year, you know. And um, so you don't get this up and down nearly as much because you don't have all these weird things going on, like the transient transient population or tourism or you know, money flooding in from hedge funds buying houses. It's just people that live there that have jobs that make money and get mortgages and buy houses, and it keeps the economy pretty stable, I think.

SPEAKER_01 18:02

Right. And you were I can't remember if it was this video or a video that we did three hours ago. Um but how does that um God? I had it in my head now, I just literally lost it. Ah, just scratch that out.

SPEAKER_00 18:18

Okay, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 18:21

So um, yeah, Brady, we don't need any more. Um, so basically, I guess we come to the conclusion that we probably should stick to some videos that uh I still like I still like commenting on those videos. I really do.

SPEAKER_00 18:32

I think it's good. It's good to like like I said, Vegas can be a leading indicator, but um yeah, I mean if I don't know, let's if we can find some Midwest videos or Southeast or something where it's uh a market that's gonna be similar to most of the rest of the country, you know, might be a better indicator, but we'll be less it will be less um maybe less interesting because it'll be less extreme, you know.

SPEAKER_01 18:53

Hey Brady, um I go to there's some twin cities guys that have some podcast stuff, they're just realtors. Um, maybe we need to do a reaction video on them and see you know what we think uh a little bit different. And again, maybe that might help us get some views if we post it on our on our website or not our website, but just Facebook around here. But just let's look into that.

SPEAKER_00 19:16

That's a good idea of doing some local stuff because we can get some more reach just through the local people.

SPEAKER_01 19:22

Yeah, um, I think we've even tried to reach out to the there's a there's uh one that has a radio station that they do an hour real estate podcast, not a podcast, real hour, hour and a half. Is it 11:30? I think it's on 11:30. I can't remember. Anywho, um, you know, that we need to look at, or maybe we can get one of those guys on our side. But I I think we we need to start looking at their videos too. But hey, um, we're rambling. Uh let's do a hard close here, Brady, so we can start over. Hey guys, uh, if you like the video that you're you're you just watched, um please click below. Uh subscribe to our channel. Um, tell us we suck, tell us we're awesome, whatever. We want to hear from you. Um, so uh again, just remember we made the mistakes.

SPEAKER_00 20:10

So you don't have to.

SPEAKER_01 20:12

Thank you.

SPEAKER_00 20:14

Later.